CN101527029A - Risk evaluation method of bridge design - Google Patents
Risk evaluation method of bridge design Download PDFInfo
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- CN101527029A CN101527029A CN200910049710A CN200910049710A CN101527029A CN 101527029 A CN101527029 A CN 101527029A CN 200910049710 A CN200910049710 A CN 200910049710A CN 200910049710 A CN200910049710 A CN 200910049710A CN 101527029 A CN101527029 A CN 101527029A
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Abstract
The invention discloses a risk evaluation method of bridge design. The risk evaluation method comprises the following steps: qualitatively and quantitatively analyzing risk factors during a bridge design phase; qualitatively analyzing the existing risk factors by an analytic hierarchy process and quantitatively describing weight and safety degree of various risk factors by a mathematical means; and finally solving weighted average of the safety degree which is a risk evaluation result of the bridge design by a statistical analysis method. The risk evaluation method can provide a quantitative answer for risks of a bridge design result, which is simple and visual. Meanwhile, the risk evaluation method of the bridge design can help locate the risk factors causing risks in the case of the risks of the bridge design result, which provides a basis for design modification and realizes that the bridge design risks can be controlled.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the risk assessment field, specifically, relate to a kind of method of Bridge Design being carried out risk assessment.
Background technology
Risk, i.e. loss uncertain or with the difference of re-set target; Though can reduce risks by certain measure, can't eliminate risk.The possibility outwardness that the objectivity of risk makes loss.
As the science of bridge building of transport hub,, can cause very big economic loss and very serious consequence in case in mishap and disaster, destroy.Therefore, it is very necessary the bridge construction process being carried out risk assessment.
The bridge construction process can be summarised as three phases substantially: feasibility study stage in early stage, Bridge Design stage and bridge construction stage.In the feasibility study stage in early stage is that returns of investment, ecologic environment equivalent risk to bridge construction estimated substantially; The factor that influences bridge security is mainly reflected in Bridge Design and construction stage.At present, the risk assessment field is more at the assessment that work progress carries out at home, and certainly, reason is many-sided, and after all, work progress is in the risk environment more complicated and changeable.Such as, project profile, site environment, weather conditions, bid, contractor unit, supervisor, the raw-material supply of equipment etc.Stage is carried out the generation that some construction accidents and engineering problem can be effectively avoided in correct risk assessment to this.Yet, one of key link in the Bridge Design stage transport development process especially, the degree of safety of its design result directly influences the security of institute's bridge construction beam, and simultaneously, its risk also is can't remedy in the work progress.Therefore, it is quite necessary the Bridge Design stage being carried out risk assessment effectively, eliminates design hidden danger.How the risk that occurs in the Bridge Design process being carried out the quantitative analysis and the evaluation of system, realize that the design risk is controlled, is the key issue of at present Bridge Design being carried out effective risk assessment.Particularly the building of marine bridge, the continuous increase in bridge span footpath and the application of new material in recent years, this brings bigger difficulty for the management in Bridge Design stage, and bridge is just more outstanding in the risk problem of design phase.
Summary of the invention
In view of the above problems, the present invention proposes a kind of method of Bridge Design being carried out risk assessment.Carry out quantitative weight analysis and degree of safety evaluation by the risk factors that the Bridge Design stage is existed, the method for utilization statistical study.Finish the risk assessment of Bridge Design simply, intuitively.
Overall technological scheme of the present invention realizes by following concrete scheme as shown in Figure 1:
A kind of method that Bridge Design is carried out risk assessment, at first to determine to influence design result show with the potential risks factor; And then, the possibility of each risk factors generation and the consequence that causes thereof are carried out qualitative and quantitative analysis; Use the method for statistical study that design result is carried out risk assessment at last.It is characterized in that by the risk factors that exist in the Bridge Design are carried out qualitative and quantitative analysis, described methods of risk assessment can provide quantitative answer to Bridge Design result's risk, simple, directly perceived.Simultaneously, under the dangerous situation of Bridge Design result, described methods of risk assessment can be located and be produced dangerous risk factors, for design modification provides foundation, realizes that the risk of Bridge Design is controlled.
Describedly definitely influence showing of design result and can carry out in conjunction with concrete Bridge Design example by Delphi method with the potential risks factor.
Described risk factors are classified by analytical hierarchy process, and first level is a destination layer, and second level is the risk elementary event.
Described destination layer can comprise whole risks that the Bridge Design stage exists.
Described risk elementary event is the risk case that possible cause Bridge Design risk in the destination layer.
Described possibility that each risk factors is taken place and the consequence that causes thereof are carried out qualitative and quantitative analysis and are comprised the weight of determining each risk factors and two parts of degree of safety of each risk factors of evaluation.
The weight of described risk factors is to weigh the possibility that certain risk factors is brought the Bridge Design risk, can be expressed as the probability that risk takes place.
The weight of described risk factors can be determined in conjunction with concrete Bridge Design example by Delphi method.
The degree of safety of described risk factors is the risk evaluation result to certain risk factors itself.Can determine in conjunction with bridge design specifications and theoretical foundation by Delphi method.
Described risk evaluation result can be expressed as the element that specific degree of safety evaluation is concentrated.
Described degree of safety evaluation collection is a discrete mathematical set, and the element in the set is corresponding one by one with the degree of risk of Bridge Design.
The method of described use statistical study is carried out risk assessment to design result can quantitatively draw the degree of safety of Bridge Design by finding the solution the weighted mean value of each risk factors degree of safety, finishes the risk assessment of Bridge Design.
As seen from the above technical solution provided by the invention, the present invention classifies and quantitative test by the risk factors that the Bridge Design stage is existed, determine the weight and the degree of safety of each risk factors, use average weighted statistical analysis technique quantitatively to draw the degree of safety of Bridge Design, finish the risk assessment of Bridge Design.Bridge Design methods of risk assessment of the present invention is applied to the design phase of bridge construction, and the qualitative assessment result is provided, and is simple, directly perceived.Simultaneously, under the dangerous situation of Bridge Design result, described methods of risk assessment can be located and be produced dangerous risk factors, for design modification provides foundation, can eliminate design hidden danger effectively.The risk that has not only realized Bridge Design is controlled, also provides safeguard for the bridge construction stage in later stage.
Description of drawings
Combine the detailed description of accompanying drawing, the structure and the process of the inventive method are more simple and clear with making, wherein:
Figure 1 shows that overall technological scheme figure of the present invention
Figure 2 shows that the risk factors step analysis instance graph of the method for the invention
Figure 3 shows that the implementing procedure figure of the method for the invention
Embodiment
Core of the present invention is to determine influence Bridge Design result's risk factors by Delphi method in conjunction with concrete Bridge Design example in the Bridge Design stage, and adopts analytical hierarchy process that described risk factors are carried out classification analysis.And then, the possibility of each risk factors generation and the consequence that causes thereof are carried out qualitative and quantitative analysis; Use the method for statistical study that design result is carried out risk assessment at last.
After using the present invention, can be simply, the risk to the Bridge Design result provides quantitative answer intuitively, simultaneously, can locate and produce dangerous risk factors, for design modification provides foundation, realizes that the risk of Bridge Design is controlled.
Specifically a bit say, the possibility of each risk factors generation and the consequence that causes thereof are carried out qualitative and quantitative analysis, be to use mathematical analysis method to carry out, comprise the weight of definite each risk factors and two aspects of degree of safety of each risk factors of evaluation.
The weight of risk factors is to weigh the possibility that certain risk factors is brought the Bridge Design risk, can be expressed as the probability that risk takes place; Each risk probability and be 1.Described risk factors are by the analytical hierarchy process classified description, and first level is a destination layer, comprise whole risks that the Bridge Design stage exists; Second level is the risk elementary event, is the risk case that possible cause Bridge Design risk in the destination layer.The weight of determining risk factors is exactly to determine the weight of each risk elementary event, and the method for the weight of definite risk factors of the present invention adopts the probability multiplication that changes to carry out.That is, determine the weight of each risk of destination layer earlier; Determine the weight of risk elementary event for its destination layer of living in then, the last probability of use multiplication that changes is determined the probability of each risk elementary event generation Bridge Design risk, the i.e. weight of each risk factors.
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing the weight method of using definite risk factors of the present invention is described in further detail
The risk factors step analysis of a certain specific embodiment of the method for the invention determines that the weight process of each risk factors is as follows as shown in Figure 2:
Destination layer incident Y
1, Y
2, Y
3, Y
4Weight table be shown a
1, a
2, a
3, a
4, be designated as A=(a
1, a
2, a
3, a
4) a
1+ a
2+ a
3+ a
4=1.
Risk elementary event X
1-X
19Weight with respect to residing destination layer is expressed as respectively: X
1, X
2, X
3To index Y
1Weight be: a
11, a
12, a
13Be designated as A
1=(a
11, a
12, a
13) a
11+ a
12+ a
13=1.
X
4, X
5, X
6, X
7, X
8To index Y
2Weight be: a
21, a
22, a
23, a
24, a
25Be designated as A
2=(a
21, a
22, a
23, a
24, a
25) a
21+ a
22+ a
23+ a
24+ a
25=1.
X
9, X
10, X
11, X
12To index Y
3Weight be: a
31, a
32, a
33, a
34Be designated as A
3=(a
31, a
32, a
33, a
34) a
31+ a
32+ a
33+ a
34=1.
X
13, X
14, X
15, X
16, X
17, X
18, X
19To index Y
4Weight be: a
41, a
42, a
43, a
44, a
45, a
46, a
47
Be designated as A
4=(a
41, a
42, a
43, a
44, a
45, a
46, a
47) a
41+ a
42+ a
43+ a
44+ a
45+ a
46+ a
47=1.
The risk elementary event directly constitutes the size of risk to the design phase, promptly the risk elementary event directly constitutes the weight of risk to the design phase, represents with B here, that is:
B＝(b
1，b
2，b
3，b
4，b
5，b
6，b
7，b
8，b
9，b
10，b
11，b
12，b
13，b
14，b
15，b
16，b
17，b
18，b
19)
Then the probability of use weight that multiplication can get each risk factors that changes is:
b
1＝a
1·a
11，b
2＝a
1·a
12，......b
19＝a
4?a
47。
The degree of safety of risk factors is the risk evaluation result to certain risk factors itself, can be expressed as the element that specific degree of safety evaluation is concentrated.Described degree of safety evaluation collection is the evaluation result set of the quantification that methods of risk assessment adopted to Bridge Design of the present invention, can be expressed as a discrete mathematical set, and the element in the set is corresponding one by one with the degree of risk of Bridge Design.Degree of safety evaluation collection is determined at the beginning of a certain Bridge Design is carried out risk assessment, is used to describe the degree of safety of each risk factors itself and the degree of safety of final Bridge Design, and the risk evaluation result of Bridge Design.Can be expressed as U=(u
1, u
2, u
3, u
4, u
5), wherein:
u
1∈ (0,1), corresponding risk assessment language is " danger close ";
u
2∈ [1.0,1.2), corresponding risk assessment language is " danger ";
u
3=1.2, corresponding risk assessment language for " in ";
u
4∈ [1.2,1.4), corresponding risk assessment language is " safety ";
u
5[1.4, ∞), corresponding risk assessment language is " very safe " to ∈;
Determine that the degree of safety of each risk factors can carry out in conjunction with bridge design specifications and theoretical foundation by Delphi method.With regard to accompanying drawing 2 described a certain specific embodiments, its risk factors are carried out the degree of safety evaluation one by one, promptly provide the degree of safety of each risk factors; Be expressed as:
X＝(x
1，x
2，x
3，x
4，x
5，x
6，x
7，x
8，x
9，x
10，x
11，x
12，x
13，x
14，x
15，x
16，x
17，x
18，x
19)?x
n∈U
A kind of method that Bridge Design is carried out risk assessment of the present invention exactly after the weight of having determined each risk factors and degree of safety, is used the method for statistical study, the weighted mean value of finding the solution degree of safety.With regard to accompanying drawing 2 described a certain specific embodiments, then the risk evaluation result u of its design is: u=BX
T
The specific embodiment of 2 described the inventive method in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, the concrete implementing procedure figure of the method for the invention as shown in Figure 3, specific embodiments is as follows:
A, at first before a certain Bridge Design is carried out risk assessment, determines degree of safety evaluation collection U, in order to represent risk evaluation result quantitatively.
B, use analytical hierarchy process are set up the risk Factor Analysis figure shown in the accompanying drawing 2.
C, the probability of use multiplication that changes is determined the weight B of each risk factors, estimates the degree of safety X of each risk factors.
D, the weighted mean value of finding the solution degree of safety are determined the risk evaluation result u=BX of Bridge Design
T
The above only is a kind of possible embodiments of the present invention, and protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereto, and equivalence variation or replacement method in the technical scope that any the present invention discloses all should be encompassed within protection scope of the present invention; For protection inventor's rights and interests, in this explanation.
Claims (10)
1, a kind of method that Bridge Design is carried out risk assessment, at first to determine to influence design result show with the potential risks factor; And then, the possibility of each risk factors generation and the consequence that causes thereof are carried out qualitative and quantitative analysis; Use the method for statistical study that design result is carried out risk assessment at last.It is characterized in that by the risk factors that exist in the Bridge Design are carried out qualitative and quantitative analysis, described methods of risk assessment can provide quantitative answer to Bridge Design result's risk, simple, directly perceived.Simultaneously, under the dangerous situation of Bridge Design result, described methods of risk assessment can be located and be produced dangerous risk factors, for design modification provides foundation, realizes that the risk of Bridge Design is controlled.
2, according to claim 1ly a kind of Bridge Design is carried out methods of risk assessment, it is characterized in that,
Describedly definitely influence showing of design result and can carry out in conjunction with concrete Bridge Design example by Delphi method with the potential risks factor.
3, according to claim 1ly a kind of Bridge Design is carried out methods of risk assessment, it is characterized in that,
Described risk factors are classified by analytical hierarchy process, and first level is a destination layer, and second level is the risk elementary event.
4, according to claim 3ly a kind of Bridge Design is carried out methods of risk assessment, it is characterized in that,
Described destination layer can comprise whole risks that the Bridge Design stage exists.
Described risk elementary event is the risk case that possible cause Bridge Design risk in the destination layer.
5, according to claim 1ly a kind of Bridge Design is carried out methods of risk assessment, it is characterized in that,
Described possibility that each risk factors is taken place and the consequence that causes thereof are carried out qualitative and quantitative analysis and are comprised the weight of determining each risk factors and two parts of degree of safety of each risk factors of evaluation.
6, according to claim 5ly a kind of Bridge Design is carried out methods of risk assessment, it is characterized in that,
The weight of described risk factors is to weigh the possibility that certain risk factors is brought the Bridge Design risk, can be the probability that risk takes place;
Perhaps, can be mark in the discrete fraction set of specific measurement risk possibility.Can determine in conjunction with concrete Bridge Design example by Delphi method.
7, according to claim 5ly a kind of Bridge Design is carried out methods of risk assessment, it is characterized in that,
The degree of safety of described risk factors is the risk evaluation result to certain risk factors itself.Can determine in conjunction with bridge design specifications and theoretical foundation by Delphi method.
8, according to claim 7ly a kind of Bridge Design is carried out methods of risk assessment, it is characterized in that,
Described risk evaluation result can be expressed as the element that specific degree of safety evaluation is concentrated.
9, according to claim 8ly a kind of Bridge Design is carried out methods of risk assessment, it is characterized in that,
Described degree of safety evaluation collection is a discrete mathematical set, and the element in the set is corresponding one by one with the degree of risk of Bridge Design.
10, according to claim 1ly a kind of Bridge Design is carried out methods of risk assessment, it is characterized in that,
The method of described use statistical study is carried out risk assessment to design result can quantitatively draw the degree of safety of Bridge Design by finding the solution the weighted mean value of each risk factors degree of safety, finishes the risk assessment of Bridge Design.
Priority Applications (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN200910049710A CN101527029A (en) | 2009-04-21 | 2009-04-21 | Risk evaluation method of bridge design |
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|---|---|---|---|
| CN200910049710A CN101527029A (en) | 2009-04-21 | 2009-04-21 | Risk evaluation method of bridge design |
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Cited By (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN102663653A (en) * | 2012-05-11 | 2012-09-12 | 河北省电力建设调整试验所 | Risk assessment method for thermal pipeline system |
| CN102864743A (en) * | 2011-07-07 | 2013-01-09 | 中铁十一局集团有限公司 | Method for identifying safety risk in bridge construction period |
| US9031892B2 (en) | 2012-04-19 | 2015-05-12 | Invensys Systems, Inc. | Real time safety management system and method |
| CN108320076A (en) * | 2017-12-30 | 2018-07-24 | 武汉理工大学 | Bridge structure safe information platform |
-
2009
- 2009-04-21 CN CN200910049710A patent/CN101527029A/en active Pending
Cited By (5)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN102864743A (en) * | 2011-07-07 | 2013-01-09 | 中铁十一局集团有限公司 | Method for identifying safety risk in bridge construction period |
| US9031892B2 (en) | 2012-04-19 | 2015-05-12 | Invensys Systems, Inc. | Real time safety management system and method |
| US9311603B2 (en) | 2012-04-19 | 2016-04-12 | Invensys Systems, Inc. | Real time safety management system and method |
| CN102663653A (en) * | 2012-05-11 | 2012-09-12 | 河北省电力建设调整试验所 | Risk assessment method for thermal pipeline system |
| CN108320076A (en) * | 2017-12-30 | 2018-07-24 | 武汉理工大学 | Bridge structure safe information platform |
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Application publication date: 20090909 |