CN101488168B - Integrated risk computing method and system of computer information system - Google Patents

Integrated risk computing method and system of computer information system Download PDF

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CN101488168B
CN101488168B CN2008100563580A CN200810056358A CN101488168B CN 101488168 B CN101488168 B CN 101488168B CN 2008100563580 A CN2008100563580 A CN 2008100563580A CN 200810056358 A CN200810056358 A CN 200810056358A CN 101488168 B CN101488168 B CN 101488168B
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risk
reliability
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胡振宇
骆拥政
史萍萍
李�杰
谢瑞璇
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Beijing Venus Information Technology Co Ltd
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Abstract

The invention relates to a method and a system for integrated risk calculation of a computer information system, comprising the following functional modules: an original factor initial risk reliability valuator forms original factor initial risk reliability vector and a comprehensive risk reliability calculator connected with the original factor initial risk reliability valuator for calculating and evaluating the comprehensive risk reliability of the object; the method comprises the following steps: building risk level standard, analyzing the object and building weight, evaluating the original factor initial risk reliability, building risk reliability matrix, calculating the comprehensive risk reliability and quantizing the comprehensive risk. Evaluation factors are used as evidence of the evaluation object, and the risk of the evaluation object is calculated with an evidence synthesis method; the result of the evaluation factors is synthesized from the angle of the evidence, so as tobe capable of directly expressing the uncertain or unknown factors in the evaluating process, and the information is kept in the synthesis process of the evaluation factors, thus leading the evaluation result to be more objective and real.

Description

A kind of computer information system integrated risk computing method and system
Technical field
The invention belongs to information security field, be specifically related to a kind of computer information system integrated risk computing method and system.
Background technology
Along with the continuous development of infotech with popularize, the risk assessment of infosystem also occupies more and more important position.In the evaluation process of reality, the appraiser usually is the method for adopt resolving, and the evaluation object of complexity is divided into several relatively simply assesses key element, then by the assessment result of each assessment key element, extrapolates the risk of evaluation object.Because the current computer infosystem all is the complication system that network is formed usually, therebetween between each assembly, and interrelated between assembly and the system, exist safety to rely on.Because the uncertainty of this each association makes to have considerable randomness, ambiguity and subjective random that in evaluation process it is convincing to cause last assessment result to be difficult to.
In order to express the uncertainty in the evaluation process, factors such as subjective randomness when minimizing will be assessed plain synthesizing, invention " a kind of computer information safe fuzzy risk evaluating system and method " (application number 200710303984.0) had once proposed a kind of safety evaluation method of quantification, this invention has been given the appraisal procedure that a kind of fuzzy risk on the analysable basis of evaluation object.If an evaluation object can resolve to some assessment key elements, the appraisal procedure of this invention comprises:
1. assess the fuzzy risk matrix computations of key element.According to the user risk of assessment key element is judged, calculated the fuzzy rank subjection degree matrix of assessment key element.
2. according to the weight vectors of fuzzy risk matrix and assessment key element, calculate the comprehensive fuzzy risk of evaluation object.
3. according to comprehensive fuzzy risk, and the risk class standard set up of user, the risk of quantitative evaluation object.
Invention " a kind of computer information safe fuzzy risk evaluating system and method " (application number 200710303984.0) fully takes into account the uncertainty in the evaluation process, finish assessing the synthetic of key element by fuzzy technology, reduced the subjective randomness in the building-up process.But, when carrying out assessment factor synthetic with the Fuzzy Calculation technology, exist the character of " uncertain " or " not knowing " but to fail to embody well in the evaluation process.
The present invention proposes a kind of safety evaluation method and system based on the reliability theory.From the angle of evidence the result who assesses key element is synthesized.Thereby can directly express evaluation process in the ability of " uncertain " or " not knowing ", and in the building-up process of assessment key element, keep these information.
Summary of the invention
The present invention is directed to the uncertainty of the middle existence of evaluation process, provide a kind of system and method that calculates integrated risk from the angle of evidence theory, is that to invention " a kind of computer information safe fuzzy risk evaluating system and method " replenishes.Concrete summary of the invention comprises:
A kind of computer information system integrated risk computing system according to the risk evaluation and test of original factor, calculates the risk reliability of total system.Comprise following functional module:
1) original factor initial risks reliability valuator, the initial risks reliability vector of formation original factor.
2) the integrated risk reliability counter that is connected with original factor initial risks reliability valuator, the integrated risk reliability of calculating evaluation object.
Original factor initial risks reliability valuator is connected with integrated risk reliability counter, and the former output is as the latter's input.
Original factor initial risks reliability valuator wherein is according to the evaluation and test to original assessment key element, to the reliability assignment of original assessment key element with respect to set risk class standard.It comprises with lower device:
1) input media is imported the initial risks assessed value s of original assessment key element and risk class standard vector D.
2) the initial risks reliability calculation element that is connected with input media according to the initial risks assessed value of original assessment key element, calculates the initial risks reliability vector of an original assessment key element.
3) output unit that is connected with initial risks reliability calculation element, the initial risks reliability vector of an original assessment key element of output.
Integrated risk reliability counter wherein according to the risk reliability matrix of all assessment key elements and the weight vectors of assessment key element, calculates the integrated risk reliability of evaluation object.It comprises with lower device:
1) risk reliability matrix input media, the risk reliability matrix R of input assessment key element.When assessment key element when being original assessment key element, risk reliability matrix R is the matrix that the initial risks reliability vector of initial risks reliability valuator output is formed.
2) the weight vectors input media of assessment key element, the weight of all assessment key elements of an evaluation object of input.
3) the integrated risk computer installation that is connected with the weight vectors input media of risk reliability matrix input media and assessment key element is finished the calculating of the integrated risk reliability of evaluation object.
4) the risk reliability of the evaluation object that is connected with integrated risk computer installation vector output unit is exported 1 * n matrix (b 1, b 2..., b n).b iThe risk of expression evaluation object belongs to the trusting degree of rank i, and n represents the sum of risk class.
A kind of computer information system integrated risk computing method may further comprise the steps:
Set up the risk class standard, object is resolved and is set up weight, and original factor initial risks reliability assignment is set up risk reliability matrix, calculates the integrated risk reliability and quantizes integrated risk.
The calculating of integrated risk reliability may further comprise the steps:
If the risk reliability matrix of all assessment key elements of an evaluation object is R=(r I, j) K * n, the weight vectors W=(w of assessment key element 1..., w k), wherein n represents the risk class number preset, k represents the number of the assessment key element that this evaluation object has.Then the integrated risk of evaluation object is matrix B={ b of a 1 * n 1, b 2..., b n, b jRepresent the reliability of last comprehensive assessment for i risk class.B wherein jComputing method as follows:
b j = K - 1 * Π i = 1 k ( w i r i , j ) ( j = 1 , . . . , n ) ;
Wherein
Figure GSB00000114530600042
It is normalized factor.
Original factor initial risks reliability assignment method step, carry out initial risk reliability by following method and assign:
After dividing for evaluated system, each assessment key element that can not cut apart again at last is referred to as original factor, and the risk reliability of these original factor is called the initial risks reliability.Can use the instrument resemble the vulnerability scanning that original factor is carried out safe evaluation and test, risk assessment value s (such as the CVE score value) normalization with the original assessment key element that obtains makes it to become the decimal between [0,1].Compare with the risk class standard value of setting again, find out two adjacent standard value d in two rank standards xAnd d y, make that the risk s value after the normalization satisfies d x≤ s≤d yThis original factor is for rank standard d then iThe initial risks reliability assign by following method:
Figure GSB00000114530600043
The initial risks reliability vector of the original assessment key element of all of an evaluation object is formed the risk reliability matrix of this assessment key element.
Risk assessment or judgement to infosystem belong to uncertainty decision problem.When a plurality of assessment factor weave in, just need synthesize, thereby can cause probabilistic propagation of evaluation process inevitably the assessment result of these assessment factors.Simple score value adds up and asks the way of arithmetic mean, obviously can not meet the demands.Invention " a kind of computer information safe fuzzy risk evaluating system and method " (application number 200710303984.0) is though admit the uncertainty that exists in the evaluation process with the technology of bluring, and used method is failed to make uncertainty in the evaluation process to keep well or propagated when assessment result synthetic.Reliability is more pressed close to the judgement of expert to uncertainty event in the evidence theory, thereby the uncertainty decision-making available evidence theory in the assessment is represented, and synthesize with the rule in the evidence theory, make and can see the distribution that uncertain incident is judged from fusion results.The present invention synthesizes the result who assesses key element from the angle of evidence, can directly express evaluation process in the factor of " uncertain " or " not knowing ", and in the building-up process of assessment key element, keep these information, thereby make assessment result objective reality more.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 is the annexation synoptic diagram between original factor initial risks reliability valuator of the present invention and the integrated risk reliability counter.
Fig. 2 is to be the tree-shaped analytic structure synoptic diagram of evaluation object.
Fig. 3 utilizes the present invention to carry out workflow being evaluated journey figure.
Fig. 4 utilizes original factor initial risks reliability valuator structural drawing of the invention process.
Fig. 5 utilizes integrated risk reliability calculator structure figure of the invention process.
The present invention is further described below in conjunction with drawings and Examples.
Embodiment
Concrete grammar and step that embodiment 1. utilizes the present invention to carry out risk assessment, as shown in Figure 3.
1. step 301 is set up the risk class standard:
7 fens position rank standards supposing the definition risk are as shown in table 1.
Table 1: risk class standard
The rank factor Rank marking Describe
0 d 1 Can ignore.The generation of risk case is to almost not influence of system
0.1 d 2 Small.Influential but very little.Risk case is in case generation causes 10% Value Loss at the most.
0.3 d 3 Obvious slightly.Can feel the variation that causes system, but not really serious.Risk case is in case generation causes 30% Value Loss at the most.
0.5 d 4 Medium.Can cause the infringement of system's popularity, or, need payment valuable source upkeep cost the reduction of system resource or service trust degree.Risk case is in case generation can cause 50% Value Loss.
0.7 d 5 Seriously.Can cause the interruption of important system, commercial trust is impaired.Risk case is in case generation may cause 70% Value Loss.
0.9 d 6 Very serious.Can cause the important system interruption, or customer service or commercial trust heavy losses.Risk case is in case generation may cause 90% Value Loss.
1 d 7 Crucial.Can cause that system continues to interrupt or forever close.Can cause the heavy losses of proxy information or service.In a single day risk case takes place, and Value Loss is near 100%.
2. weight vectors is resolved and set up to step 302 object:
Generally speaking, the infosystem that assess is a system ensemble of being made up of a plurality of modules.By principle from simple to complexity, when assessment, earlier evaluation object is decomposed, be broken down into several relatively independent assessment key elements.In general, when an evaluation object being parsed into several assessment key elements, each significance level of assessing between the key element should be unable to be identical.At this moment just need determine the weight between the different assessment key elements.In the assessment of each assessment key element, calculate the importance weight of these assessment key elements by analytical hierarchy process.If k assessment key element arranged, then obtain the weight vectors W={w of a k dimension 1, w 2..., w k, wherein
Figure GSB00000114530600071
Form the tree structure of whole infosystem at last, as shown in Figure 2.
3. step 303 is set up initial risks reliability matrix:
Each original factor is assessed, can be used common leak assessment tool to evaluate and test,,, make it to become the decimal between [0,1] earlier with its normalization with the CVE safety score value s that obtains.Compare with the risk class standard value of setting again, find out two adjacent d xAnd d y, make that the risk s value after the normalization satisfies d x≤ s≤d yThis will have for rank standard d then iCarry out the reliability assignment by following method:
Figure GSB00000114530600072
Suppose to adopt the risk class standard { d of 7 fens positions 1, d 2..., d 7}={ 0,0.1,0.3,0.5,0.7,0.9,1}, if the CVE score value s=7.6 of a key element, and the best result of CVE is 10, then the normalization result of this key element is 0.76, the back is between d 5=0.7 and d 6Between=0.9, so the risk reliability vector of this key element 0,0,0,0,0.7,0.3,0}.The risk reliability vector of all assessment key elements of an evaluation object altogether, form the risk reliability matrix of this evaluation object.
4. step 304 is calculated the integrated risk reliability:
After carrying out the individual event assessment and being equipped with weight, can obtain a risk reliability matrix R=(r of all assessment key elements of an evaluation object I, j) K * nAnd weight vectors W=(w 1..., w k).For 7 fens position risk class standards of supposition, then the integrated risk reliability of this evaluation object is matrix B={ b of one 1 * 7 1, b 2, b 3, b 4, b 5, b 6, b 7, b jRepresent the reliability of last comprehensive assessment for i risk class.B wherein jComputing method as follows:
b j = K - 1 * Π i = 1 k ( w i r i , j ) ( j = 1 , . . . , 7 )
Wherein
Figure GSB00000114530600082
It is normalized factor.
Repeated for the 4th step, calculate up to integrated risk reliability root node.
5. step 305 quantizes integrated risk:
If final comprehensive assessment result is quantized, then calculate U=B * D, as the numerical result of a final integrated risk, D={0 wherein, 0.1,0.3,0.5,0.7,0.9,1} TIt is risk class definition (column vector is referring to table 1).
In the superincumbent definition,, relevant dependence and significance level between each evaluation object are synthesized, thereby obtain the evaluation result of comprehensive object by risk reliability matrix and weight matrix.It should be noted that when the result to each assessment synthesizes, if normalized factor K=0, then can not be synthetic with this method, just consider to use other method this moment.
The enforcement (as Fig. 4) of embodiment 2. original factor initial risks reliability valuators.This valuator is according to the evaluation and test to original assessment key element, to the reliability assignment of original assessment key element with respect to set risk class standard.It comprises with lower device:
1) input media 401, import the initial risks assessed value s of original assessment key element, and risk class standard vector D.
2) initial risks reliability calculation element 402 according to the initial risks assessed value of original assessment key element, calculates the initial risks reliability vector of an original assessment key element.
2) output unit 403, the initial risks reliability vector of an original assessment key element of output.
Suppose to adopt the risk class standard { d of 7 fens positions 1, d 2..., d 7}={ 0,0.1,0.3,0.5,0.7,0.9,1}, if the CVE score value s=7.6 of a key element, then the reception of input media 401 is input as s=7.6, D={0,0.1,0.3,0.5,0.7,0.9,1}.
After input media 401 being received the assessed value s and risk class standard vector D of a key element, initial risks reliability calculation element 402 carries out initial risks reliability assignment by following method to this assessment key element: earlier with its normalization of s, become the decimal between [0,1].Compare with the risk class value of setting again, find out two adjacent d xAnd d y, make that the risk s value after the normalization satisfies d x≤ s≤d yThis key element is for rank standard d then iCarry out the reliability assignment by following method:
Figure GSB00000114530600091
For D={0,0.1,0.3,0.5,0.7,0.9,1}, s=7.6, if the best result of CVE is 10, then the result after the s normalization is 0.76, between d 5=0.7 and d 6Between=0.9, so the risk reliability matrix of this key element is that { 0,0,0,0,0.7,0.3,0} is an initial risks reliability vector.
After the initial risks reliability vector calculation of all original assessment key elements of an evaluation object finishes, the initial risks reliability matrix that output unit 403 outputs are made up of these initial risks reliabilities vectors.
Embodiment 3, the enforcement (as Fig. 5) of integrated risk reliability counter.This counter calculates the integrated risk reliability of evaluation object according to the risk reliability matrix of all assessment key elements and the weight vectors of assessment key element.It comprises with lower device:
1) risk reliability matrix input media 501, the risk reliability matrix R of input assessment key element.When assessment key element when being original assessment key element, risk reliability matrix R is the initial risks reliability matrix of initial risks reliability valuator output.
2) the weight vectors input media 502 of assessment key element, the weight of all assessment key elements of an evaluation object of input.
3) the integrated risk computer installation 503, finish the calculating of the integrated risk reliability of evaluation object.
4) the risk reliability of evaluation object vector output unit 504 is exported 1 * n matrix (b 1, b 2..., b n).b iThe risk of expression evaluation object belongs to the trusting degree of rank i, and n represents the sum of risk class.
The input media 501 and 502 of this counter is imported the risk reliability matrix R of the assessment key element of an evaluation object respectively, and the weight vectors of assessment key element.When assessment key element when being original assessment key element, risk reliability matrix R is the initial risks reliability matrix of initial risks reliability valuator output.
After input media 501 and 502 was finished input, integrated risk computer installation 503 calculated the integrated risk reliability of an evaluation object by following method:
For 7 fens position risk class standards of supposition, then the integrated risk reliability of this evaluation object is matrix B={ b of one 1 * 7 1, b 2, b 3, b 4, b 5, b 6, b 7, b jRepresent the reliability of last comprehensive assessment for i risk class.B wherein jComputing method as follows:
b j = K - 1 * Π i = 1 k ( w i r i , j ) ( j = 1 , . . . , 7 )
Wherein It is normalized factor.
The risk reliability vector output unit 504 of evaluation object is with the result of calculation output of integrated risk computer installation 503.
In calculating integrated risk, if K=0 then calculates meaninglessly, expression can not be with method calculating integrated risk reliability of the present invention.

Claims (3)

1. a computer information system integrated risk computing system is characterized in that the risk evaluation and test according to original factor, calculates the risk reliability of total system; Comprise following functional module:
1) original factor initial risks reliability valuator, the initial risks reliability vector of formation original factor;
2) the integrated risk reliability counter that is connected with original factor initial risks reliability valuator, the integrated risk reliability of calculating evaluation object;
Original factor initial risks reliability valuator is connected with integrated risk reliability counter, the former output is as the latter's input, wherein, described original factor initial risks reliability valuator, according to evaluation and test, to the reliability assignment of original assessment key element with respect to set risk class standard to original assessment key element; It comprises with lower device:
1) input media is imported the initial risks assessed value s of original assessment key element and risk class standard vector D;
2) the initial risks reliability calculation element that is connected with input media according to the initial risks assessed value of original assessment key element, calculates the initial risks reliability vector of an original assessment key element;
3) output unit that is connected with initial risks reliability calculation element, the initial risks reliability vector of an original assessment key element of output,
Described integrated risk reliability counter according to the risk reliability matrix of all assessment key elements and the weight vectors of assessment key element, calculates the integrated risk reliability of evaluation object; It comprises with lower device:
1) risk reliability matrix input media, the risk reliability matrix R of input assessment key element, when the assessment key element was original assessment key element, risk reliability matrix R was exactly the matrix of being made up of the initial risks reliability vector of initial risks reliability valuator output;
2) the weight vectors input media of assessment key element, the weight of all assessment key elements of an evaluation object of input;
3) the integrated risk computer installation that is connected with the weight vectors input media of risk reliability matrix input media and assessment key element is finished the calculating of the integrated risk reliability of evaluation object;
4) the risk reliability of the evaluation object that is connected with integrated risk computer installation vector output unit is exported 1 * n matrix (b 1, b 2..., b n); b iThe risk of expression evaluation object belongs to the trusting degree of rank i, and n represents the sum of risk class.
2. computer information system integrated risk computing method is characterized in that may further comprise the steps: set up the risk class standard, object is resolved and is also set up weight, original factor initial risks reliability assignment, set up risk reliability matrix, calculate the integrated risk reliability and quantize integrated risk
Wherein, described risk class standard is the numerical value of one group of value in [0,1], risk class of each numeric representation,
Wherein, in original factor initial risks reliability assignment step,, carry out initial risk reliability by following step and assign for original factor:
After dividing for evaluated system, each assessment key element that can not cut apart again at last is referred to as original factor, and the risk reliability of these original factor is called the initial risks reliability; Use the vulnerability scanning instrument that original factor is carried out safe evaluation and test, the risk assessment value s normalization with the original assessment key element that obtains makes it to become the decimal between [0,1]; Compare with the risk class standard of setting again, find out two adjacent standard value d xAnd d y, make that the risk assessment value s after the normalization satisfies d x≤ s≤d y, wherein, d x, d yBe two adjacent class values in the risk class standard; This original factor is for rank standard d then iThe initial risks reliability assign by following method:
In described integrated risk reliability calculation procedure, calculate the reliability of the integrated risk of evaluation object by following step:
If the risk reliability matrix of all assessment key elements of an evaluation object is R=(r I, j) K * n, the weight vectors W=(w of assessment key element 1..., w k), wherein n represents the risk class number preset, and k represents the number of the assessment key element that this evaluation object has, and then the integrated risk of evaluation object is matrix B={ b of a 1 * n 1, b 2..., b n, b jRepresent the reliability of last comprehensive assessment for i risk class; B wherein jComputing method as follows:
b j = K - 1 * Π i = 1 k ( w i r i , j ) ( j = 1 , . . . , n ) ;
Wherein
Figure FSB00000114530500032
It is normalized factor.
3. a kind of computer information system integrated risk computing method as claimed in claim 2 is characterized in that: described risk assessment value s is the CVE score value.
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