CN101325337A - Method for prewarning safety of electric network operation fourth-order gradient - Google Patents
Method for prewarning safety of electric network operation fourth-order gradient Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to an early warning method at four-grads of power network operation, and belongs to the automation field of electric power system management. The method includes the following steps: a safe, stable and comprehensive evaluation is carried out at four-grads according to time scales; the first level is to carry out security evaluation to the real time situation of the power network, and to identify the safety level of the power network operation; the second level is to carry out security collation to the power network forecast operation situation in the next 15 minutes (before the power network operation), and to send a security alarm; the third level is to carry out security collation to a power-generating plan and a servicing plan of the next day; and to send an alarm; the fourth level is to carry out security collation to a power-generating plan and a servicing plan of the next week. The early warning method ensures that the power network can run safely and stably through the safety early warning at four time scales, namely real time, pre-operation, previous-day planning and week planning.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of method for prewarning safety of electric network operation fourth-order gradient, belong to the dispatching automation of electric power systems field.
Background technology
Early warning system is the power grid security reliability service safeguards technique faster of the world, domestic development in recent years, its core purpose is that the safe condition of operation of power networks is assessed, take corresponding control measures according to assessment result, big electrical network is had an accident and the possibility that worsens drops to minimum.Now build the early warning system of finishing and be primarily implemented in the line warning function, the online decision-premaking of OPS-102 prevention and control system (scientific paper as Guangxi Power Grid, Li Delan, Gao Wenjian, Guangxi electric power, 2004, (5): 66), Sichuan Electric Power Network safety and stability real-time early warning and control decision system (scientific research information, Automation of Electric Systems, 2006,30 (20): 4), " complete frame of dynamic security analysis " (scientific paper, A.B.R.Kumar, V.Brandvajn that U.S.'s DianKeYuan conducts a research, A.Ipakchi etc., IEEE Transaction on Power Systems, 1998,13 (3): 816-821) etc.But there is following problem in existing early warning system:
1) safe early warning of single time scale.The early warning system that has realized is analysis, early warning and the decision making function to the current running status of electrical network.But, in order to guarantee the power grid security reliability service, grid dispatching center need be carried out security evaluation to each link of operation of power networks management and scheduling process, all need to carry out the safety check of electrical network such as each links such as the arrangement of electrical network maintenance scheduling, operational mode check, management and running operation and scheduling monitoring in real time, guarantee not occur causing the generation of electrical network serious accident.Present power grid security early warning system is to realize.
2) just the partial electric grid of this grid dispatching center administration has been set up real-time model.The electrical network of each level all is the part of interconnected network, relatively can produce considerable influence with the state of the external electrical network of electrical network at the corresponding levels to the safety of electrical network at the corresponding levels.But, the pre existing alarm system is usually to adopting the off-line Equivalent Model with its external electrical network of facing mutually, in case it is constant to set up its external network equivalent model extended immobilization, the variation of external electrical network can't be reflected in the electric network model of safety pre-warning system like this, so the correctness of the analysis result of safe early warning can't be guaranteed.
Summary of the invention
The objective of the invention is to propose a kind of method for prewarning safety of electric network operation fourth-order gradient, utilize the SCADA system that the real-time running state of the equipment of the grid power system that is distributed in various places is carried out data acquisition and focus on, grid equipment property parameters in conjunction with artificial input, the real time execution model of overall electrical network is set up and is upgraded in the merging of multi-region electric network model and reconstruction automatically.Utilize the prediction attitude trend of considering generation schedule, interconnection plan and partition load forecast simultaneously, set up the operation of power networks model of following attitude; Based on the following attitude and the real time execution model of this electrical network, operation of power networks and maintenance scheduling are carried out the safety and the economic level of four time scales and assess, identify the potential safety hazard of operation of power networks, alarm is proposed.
The method for prewarning safety of electric network operation fourth-order gradient that the present invention proposes, the power grid security early warning system is installed in the dispatching of power netwoks message center, operational mode to the current of electrical network and the following attitude of prediction is carried out the safety and stability comprehensive assessment, is the safe early warning of four time scales, may further comprise the steps:
(1-1) the current running status of electrical network is monitored and assess, obtain the lsafety level and the accident potential of current operation of power networks, and provide warning;
(1-2), the following 15 minutes states of operation of power networks are constantly assessed, obtained the lsafety level and the accident potential of operation of power networks constantly in following 15 minutes, and provide warning according to the historical data of operation of power networks state and the ultrashort phase trend forecast of electrical network;
(1-3), generation schedule and the maintenance scheduling of next day are carried out safe check according to the historical data and the expansion short-term load forecasting of operation of power networks state, the accident potential of assessment operation of power networks, and provide warning;
(1-4), the generation schedule and the maintenance scheduling in a following week are carried out safe check according to the historical data and the short-term load forecasting of operation of power networks state, the accident potential of assessment operation of power networks, and provide warning.
In the said method, step (1-1) monitors to the current running status of electrical network and assesses that obtain the lsafety level and the accident potential of current operation of power networks, and provide warning, concrete steps are:
(2-1) the upper level grid dispatching center of electrical network at the corresponding levels utilizes the state estimation result to carry out at the spider lines equivalence, and meritorious, the reactive power of the meritorious and reactive power of the equivalent real-time grid model that will generate, generator, network load and busbar voltage are handed down to grid dispatching center at the corresponding levels;
(2-2) the equivalent real-time grid model that issues with the upper level grid dispatching center of grid dispatching center at the corresponding levels and the real-time model of electrical network that grid dispatching center at the corresponding levels is had jurisdiction over merge, and generate overall network equivalence model and distribute with trend that this overall situation network equivalence model is complementary;
(2-3) according to above-mentioned overall network equivalence model following overall situation operation of power networks state, the safety analysis that carry out automatically that electrical network static state, voltage are stable, transient stability and relay protection constant value cooperates, the safe condition of identification electrical network, and produce and report to the police.
In the said method, step (1-2) is assessed the following 15 minutes states of operation of power networks constantly according to the historical data of operation of power networks state and the ultrashort phase trend forecast of electrical network, obtains the lsafety level and the accident potential of operation of power networks constantly in following 15 minutes, and provide warning, concrete steps are:
(3-1) the upper level grid dispatching center of electrical network at the corresponding levels utilizes the state estimation result to carry out at the spider lines equivalence, and meritorious, the reactive power of the meritorious and reactive power of the equivalent real-time grid model that will generate, generator, network load and busbar voltage are handed down to grid dispatching center at the corresponding levels;
(3-2) grid dispatching center at the corresponding levels is carried out ultra-short term to the linchpin electrical network, following 15 minutes network loads constantly of prediction, according to electrical network bus load distribution factor network load is assigned on each bus of electrical network, the trend that recomputates this area under one's jurisdiction electrical network distributes;
(3-3) grid dispatching center at the corresponding levels merges the electric network model in this area under one's jurisdiction and higher level's network equivalence model that trend distributes and the upper level grid dispatching center issues of above-mentioned this area under one's jurisdiction electrical network, generates the trend that is complementary with overall network equivalence model and distributes;
(3-4) to the safety analysis that above-mentioned tide model carries out that electrical network static state, voltage are stable, transient stability and relay protection constant value cooperate, the safe condition of identification electrical network, and produce and report to the police.
In the said method, step (1-3) is carried out safe check according to the historical data and the expansion short-term load forecasting of operation of power networks state to generation schedule and the maintenance scheduling of next day, the accident potential of assessment operation of power networks, and provide warning, concrete steps are:
(4-1) the upper level grid dispatching center of electrical network at the corresponding levels utilizes the state estimation result to carry out at the spider lines equivalence, and meritorious, the reactive power of the meritorious and reactive power of the equivalent real-time grid model that will generate, generator, network load and busbar voltage are handed down to grid dispatching center at the corresponding levels;
(4-2) grid dispatching center at the corresponding levels combines per 15 minutes next day generation schedules of 96 of this area under one's jurisdiction electrical network, per 15 minutes results with interconnection exchange plan higher level's electrical network and per 15 minutes next day subregion expansion short-term load forecasting of 96 at 96, carry out the trend forecast of per 15 minutes 96 sections, the trend that obtains 96 sections distributes;
(4-3) grid dispatching center at the corresponding levels merges the trend distribution that generates overall network equivalence model and be complementary with this overall situation network equivalence model with the equivalent real-time grid model of higher level that the upper level control centre issues respectively with the tide model of above-mentioned 96 sections;
(4-3) next day maintenance plan that electrical network at the corresponding levels is formulated in advance changes into the electric grid operating sequence, and according to the tide model of above-mentioned 96 sections of sequential correction of the sequence of operation;
(4-4) to the safety analysis that the model of above-mentioned 96 trend sections carries out that electrical network static state, voltage are stable, transient stability and relay protection constant value cooperate, the accident potential of identification electrical network, and produce and report to the police.
In the said method, step (1-4) is carried out safe check according to the historical data and the short-term load forecasting of operation of power networks state to the generation schedule and the maintenance scheduling in a following week, the accident potential of assessment operation of power networks, and provide warning, concrete steps are:
(5-1) the upper level grid dispatching center of electrical network at the corresponding levels utilizes the state estimation result to carry out at the spider lines equivalence, and meritorious, the reactive power of the meritorious and reactive power of the equivalent real-time grid model that will generate, generator, network load and busbar voltage are handed down to grid dispatching center at the corresponding levels;
(5-2) grid dispatching center at the corresponding levels is with the generation schedule in steady three moment of peak of power consumption, low power consumption, electricity consumption of every day in next week of this area under one's jurisdiction electrical network, the interconnection exchange plan of electrical network at the corresponding levels and higher level's electrical network and the short-term load forecasting of electrical network three as a result combine, the trend forecast of discontinuity surface totally 21 time of steady three moment of peak of power consumption, low power consumption, electricity consumption of calculating every day in next week, the trend of discontinuity surface distributes when obtaining 21 in electrical network at the corresponding levels;
The tide model of discontinuity surface merged the trend distribution that generates overall network equivalence model and be complementary with this overall situation network equivalence model with the equivalent electric network model of higher level that the upper level control centre issues respectively when (5-3) grid dispatching center at the corresponding levels was with above-mentioned 21;
(5-4) next all maintenance scheduling of electrical network at the corresponding levels is changed into the electric grid operating sequence, the tide model of discontinuity surface during according to above-mentioned 21 of the sequential correction of electric grid operating sequence;
(5-5) to above-mentioned each the time discontinuity surface the safety analysis that tide model carries out that electrical network static state, voltage are stable, transient stability and relay protection constant value cooperate, the safe condition of identification electrical network, and produce and report to the police.
The method for prewarning safety of electric network operation fourth-order gradient that the present invention proposes, be characterized in: energy transmits with the light velocity in the electrical network, and the emergency control means are limited, may be catastrophic in case its consequence of accident occurs.The present invention is advanced to arrangement of operation of power networks maintenance scheduling and operational mode check stage with the critical point of electrical network early warning, from weekly repair plan, day operation plan, following 15 minutes (before the electric grid operating) and real-time four time scales electrical network is carried out safe early warning respectively.The present invention is on the basis of real-time analysis decision-making, further realizes comprehensive, systematized power grid security reliability service warning function, finds the hidden danger of operation of power networks as early as possible.
The advantage of the inventive method is:
1, not only realize the real-time early warning of power grid security, and before realizing electric grid operating, the safety and stability comprehensive assessment and the decision Analysis of three phases such as day maintenance plan and weekly repair plan.Thereby electrical network early warning critical point is advanced to the operation of power networks maintenance scheduling arranges the stage, throughput fractional analysis and optimization decision-making means, operation of power networks stability, reliability and economy are combined, realize the warning function of time scale for a long time: promptly whole process realizes that safe operation has nargin, precarious position to have early warning, decision-making treatment that foundation is arranged in the arrangement of electrical network maintenance scheduling, operational mode check, management and running operation and the whole coherent production process of the real-time monitoring of scheduling.
2, realized the complete modeling of big real-time power network attitude and prediction attitude.Outer net state can produce considerable influence to the regional power grid that is in networking hinge status, and the present invention can generate overall electric network model automatically according to the parameter situation of outer net state, guarantees the accuracy of security evaluation and decision-making; Consider the result of generation schedule and partition load forecast simultaneously, realized modeling following attitude operation of power networks situation.
3, to the integrated assessment technology of various ways stable problem.The characteristics of modern power network stability problem are that the various ways stable problem intercouples, the characteristic complexity.The present invention has realized security and stability analysis, early warning and the decision support on the electrical network level Four gradient, solved many sides security evaluation and comprehensive pre-warning problem, comprise static state, transient state, dynamically, voltage is stable and automatic safety device cooperates safety and stability evaluation and early warning.
Description of drawings
The big prewarning safety of electric network operation fourth-order gradient basic function of Fig. 1 graph of a relation
Among Fig. 1, the 1st, first order early warning, operation monitors and the evaluation function graph of a relation with operation to real-time power network, the 2nd, second level early warning, realization is to the warning function graph of a relation of the operation of power networks of following 15 minutes (before the electric grid operating), and the 3rd, third level early warning is carried out safety to the generation schedule of next day and maintenance scheduling and is checked merit and early warning energy graph of a relation, the 4th, fourth stage early warning is carried out safety check and warning function graph of a relation to the generation schedule and the maintenance scheduling in a following week.
Embodiment
As shown in Figure 1, the present invention's enforcement of proposing method for prewarning safety of electric network operation fourth-order gradient is described in detail as follows:
(1) the upper level grid dispatching center of electrical network at the corresponding levels utilizes the state estimation result to carry out at the spider lines equivalence, and meritorious, the reactive power of the meritorious and reactive power of the equivalent real-time grid model that will generate, generator, network load and busbar voltage are handed down to grid dispatching center at the corresponding levels; Concrete grammar has obtained Chinese patent (Chinese patent: ZL 200510086549.8).
(2) the equivalent real-time grid model that issues with the upper level grid dispatching center of grid dispatching center at the corresponding levels and the real-time model of electrical network that grid dispatching center at the corresponding levels is had jurisdiction over merge, and generate overall network equivalence model and distribute with trend that this overall situation network equivalence model is complementary; Concrete grammar has been applied for Chinese patent (application number: 200710176083.X)
(3) according to above-mentioned overall network equivalence model following overall situation operation of power networks state, the safety analysis that carry out automatically that electrical network static state, voltage are stable, transient stability and relay protection constant value cooperates, the safe condition of identification electrical network, and produce and report to the police.
Wherein, electrical network static security early warning: carry out the scanning of N-1 accident collection automatically, cause the order of severity ordering that power network line overload, busbar voltage are crossed the border, point out the weak link of static security according to fault.Voltage stability and safety early warning: according to the given load growth pattern, provide the distance of each zone load ionization voltage collapse and system's minimum singular value etc. and characterize the voltage stable indexes, point out the weak link of static voltage stability; Further automatic scan forecast accident collection, under each forecast accident, the distance of each zone load ionization voltage collapse.Concrete grammar has been applied for Chinese patent (based on the appraisal procedure of the power system steady state voltage stability of dynamic continuous tide, application number 200710065199.6).Transient stability safe early warning: concentrate rapid screening to go out serious accident from forecast accident, serious accident is carried out detailed transient stability analysis, provide stability limit value and stability margin, point out the weak link of transient stability.Concrete grammar (the Guo Qi that publishes thesis, Zhang Baiming, Wang Shouxiang. based on the dynamic security analysis system of EMS. Automation of Electric Systems, 2004,28 (8): 57-62) with application Chinese patent (a kind of appraisal procedure (application Chinese patent 200810056732.7) that is applied to the limit transmitted power of electric network on-line scheduling decision.The safety analysis that relay protection constant value cooperates: when bigger variation takes place power system operating mode; automatic scan calculates the short circuit current of various failure modes; carry out the check of switch rupturing capacity and relay protection constant value; point out not satisfy the relay protection constant value and the switch of correct operation requirement, prevent the malfunction of refusing of relaying protection and switch.Concrete grammar publish thesis (Lv Ying, Sun Hongbin, Zhang Baiming, Wu Wenchuan is etc. online relaying protection intelligent early-warning system exploitation. Automation of Electric Systems, 2006,30 (4): 1-5)
(1) the upper level grid dispatching center of electrical network at the corresponding levels utilizes the state estimation result to carry out at the spider lines equivalence, and meritorious, the reactive power of the meritorious and reactive power of the equivalent real-time grid model that will generate, generator, network load and busbar voltage are handed down to grid dispatching center at the corresponding levels;
(2) grid dispatching center at the corresponding levels is carried out ultra-short term to the linchpin electrical network, following 15 minutes network loads constantly of prediction, according to electrical network bus load distribution factor network load is assigned on each bus of electrical network, the trend that recomputates this area under one's jurisdiction electrical network distributes.The ultra-short term concrete grammar publish thesis (all Jie English, Zhang Baiming, Shang Jincheng, etc. based on the ultra-short term and the error analysis thereof of multiple spot extrapolation diurnal periodicity. Electric Power Automation Equipment, 2005,25 (2): 15-17).
(3) grid dispatching center at the corresponding levels merges the electric network model in this area under one's jurisdiction and higher level's network equivalence model that trend distributes and the upper level grid dispatching center issues of above-mentioned this area under one's jurisdiction electrical network, generates the trend that is complementary with overall network equivalence model and distributes;
(4) to the safety analysis that above-mentioned tide model carries out that electrical network static state, voltage are stable, transient stability and relay protection constant value cooperate, the safe condition of identification electrical network, and produce and report to the police.Concrete grammar is identical with method in the above-mentioned steps one.
(1) the upper level grid dispatching center of electrical network at the corresponding levels utilizes the state estimation result to carry out at the spider lines equivalence, and meritorious, the reactive power of the meritorious and reactive power of the equivalent real-time grid model that will generate, generator, network load and busbar voltage are handed down to grid dispatching center at the corresponding levels;
(2) grid dispatching center at the corresponding levels combines per 15 minutes next day generation schedules of 96 of this area under one's jurisdiction electrical network, per 15 minutes results with interconnection exchange plan higher level's electrical network and per 15 minutes next day subregion expansion short-term load forecasting of 96 at 96, carry out the trend forecast of per 15 minutes 96 sections, the trend that obtains 96 sections distributes.Expansion short-term load forecasting specific implementation method see paper (Mo Weiren, Zhang Baiming, Sun Hongbin. the principle and the method for expansion short-term load forecasting. Proceedings of the CSEE .2003,23 (3): 1-4.)
(3) grid dispatching center at the corresponding levels merges the trend distribution that generates overall network equivalence model and be complementary with this overall situation network equivalence model with the equivalent real-time grid model of higher level that the upper level control centre issues respectively with the tide model of above-mentioned 96 sections.Concrete grammar sees that application number is in the patent application of 200710176083.X.
(4) next day maintenance plan that electrical network at the corresponding levels is formulated in advance changes into the electric grid operating sequence, and according to the tide model of above-mentioned 96 sections of sequential correction of the sequence of operation;
(5) to the safety analysis that the model of above-mentioned 96 trend sections carries out that electrical network static state, voltage are stable, transient stability and relay protection constant value cooperate, the accident potential of identification electrical network, and produce and report to the police.Concrete grammar is identical with method in the above-mentioned steps one.
(1) the upper level grid dispatching center of electrical network at the corresponding levels utilizes the state estimation result to carry out at the spider lines equivalence, and meritorious, the reactive power of the meritorious and reactive power of the equivalent real-time grid model that will generate, generator, network load and busbar voltage are handed down to grid dispatching center at the corresponding levels;
(2) grid dispatching center at the corresponding levels is with the generation schedule in steady three moment of peak of power consumption, low power consumption, electricity consumption of every day in next week of this area under one's jurisdiction electrical network, the interconnection exchange plan of electrical network at the corresponding levels and higher level's electrical network and the short-term load forecasting of electrical network three as a result combine, the trend forecast of discontinuity surface totally 21 time of steady three moment of peak of power consumption, low power consumption, electricity consumption of calculating every day in next week, the trend of discontinuity surface distributes when obtaining 21 in electrical network at the corresponding levels.Short-term load forecasting specific implementation method see paper (summer is clear for Wang Minliang, Zhang Baiming, etc. the short-term load forecasting among the EMS TH-2000, Power System and its Automation journal .1999.4:15-20).
The tide model of discontinuity surface merged the trend distribution that generates overall network equivalence model and be complementary with this overall situation network equivalence model with the equivalent electric network model of higher level that the upper level control centre issues respectively when (3) grid dispatching center at the corresponding levels was with above-mentioned 21; Concrete grammar is referring to the Chinese patent application of application number: 200710176083.X.
(4) next all maintenance scheduling of electrical network at the corresponding levels is changed into the electric grid operating sequence, the tide model of discontinuity surface during according to above-mentioned 21 of the sequential correction of electric grid operating sequence;
(5) to above-mentioned each the time discontinuity surface the safety analysis that tide model carries out that electrical network static state, voltage are stable, transient stability and relay protection constant value cooperate, the safe condition of identification electrical network, and produce and report to the police.Concrete grammar is identical with method in the above-mentioned steps one.
The present invention is the invention to the total solution of method for prewarning safety of electric network operation fourth-order gradient, the implementation method in each concrete link wherein, and the applicant's patent applied for is also open, or has delivered scientific paper:
1. power system external network equivalent generates method (Chinese patent ZL 200510086549.8 automatically, Zhang Baiming, Sun Hongbin, Wu Wenchuan, Zhang Haibo), this invention has proposed self adaptation and has generated the static and dynamic equivalent technology of outer net that buffering is netted, and real-time tracking operation of power networks state variation realizes that real-time external network equivalent generates method automatically, is applied to the Model Reconstruction in the energy management system;
2. the online merging method of multi-region electric network tide model (has been applied for Chinese patent 200710176083.X, Zhang Baiming, Wu Wenchuan, Sun Hongbin, Jiang Weiyong, open), the model of a plurality of regional power grids or the online merging method of Equivalent Model have been proposed, and the method that distributes of the trend that has proposed automatic generation the whole network coupling, be applied to the Model Reconstruction in the energy management system;
3. based on appraisal procedure (the application Chinese patent 200710065199.6 of the power system steady state voltage stability of dynamic continuous tide, Sun Hongbin, Li Qin, Zhang Baiming, Wu Wenchuan, Guo Qing comes, and is open) a kind of appraisal procedure that is not subjected to balance point to select the static voltage stability that influences has been proposed, be applied to security evaluation and early warning in the energy management system;
4. based on the dynamic security analysis system (scientific paper of EMS, Guo Qi, Zhang Baiming, Wang Shouxiang. Automation of Electric Systems, 2004,28 (8): 57-62) proposed in energy management system (EMS), how to realize the method for transient stability security evaluation and early warning, be applied to security evaluation and early warning in the energy management system;
5. online relaying protection intelligent early-warning system exploitation (scientific paper, Lv Ying, Sun Hongbin, Zhang Baiming, Wu Wenchuan, etc. Automation of Electric Systems, 2006,30 (4): 1-5) proposed in energy management system (EMS), how to realize the online check of relay protection constant value and the method for early warning being applied to security evaluation and early warning in the energy management system;
6. the infeasible online prevention and control (scientific paper of electric power system tide, Liu Mingsong, Wu Wenchuan, Zhang Baiming, Deng. Automation of Electric Systems, 2008,32 (1)) proposed a kind of based on minimum the do not match function method and the continuous trend recovery algorithms of linear programming, automatically provide controlling schemes, this method is applied to the prevention and control that electrical network is in normal unsafe condition.
7. a kind of appraisal procedure (application Chinese patent 200810056732.7 that is applied to the limit transmitted power of electric network on-line scheduling decision, Zhang Baiming, Wu Wenchuan, Jiang Weiyong, Sun Hongbin) propose a kind of real-time status of utilizing electrical network and calculated transmission capacity limits under the extreme case of electrical network transmission section, comprise the most optimistic transmission capacity limits and the most conservative transmission capacity limits, reflect the lsafety level of electrical network more all sidedly.Simultaneously, the difference of the generation load growth pattern of conservative and limit transmitted power correspondence optimism also provides useful decision information for rational scheduling operation.
8. the short-term load forecasting among the EMS TH-2000 (Zhang Baiming, the summer is clear, etc. Power System and its Automation journal .1999.4:15-20 for scientific paper, Wang Minliang) proposed a kind of predict a following week every day 96 load curve method.
9. expand the principle of short-term load forecasting and method (scientific paper, Mo Weiren, Zhang Baiming, Sun Hongbin. Proceedings of the CSEE .2003,23 (3): 1-4) proposed following one day 96 point load curves of prediction and roll and revise the method for prediction load curve.
10. based on ultra-short term and error analysis (scientific paper, all Jie English, the Zhang Baiming of multiple spot extrapolation diurnal periodicity, Shang Jincheng, Deng. Electric Power Automation Equipment, 2005,25 (2): the 15-17) method of the network load level that has proposed to predict following 10-15 minute.
Claims (5)
1, a kind of method for prewarning safety of electric network operation fourth-order gradient, it is characterized in that, the power grid security early warning system is installed in the dispatching of power netwoks message center, operational mode to the current of electrical network and the following attitude of prediction is carried out the safety and stability comprehensive assessment, be the safe early warning of four time scales, may further comprise the steps:
(1-1) the current running status of electrical network is monitored and assess, obtain the lsafety level and the accident potential of current operation of power networks, and provide warning;
(1-2), the following 15 minutes states of operation of power networks are constantly assessed, obtained the lsafety level and the accident potential of operation of power networks constantly in following 15 minutes, and provide warning according to the historical data of operation of power networks state and the ultrashort phase trend forecast of electrical network;
(1-3), generation schedule and the maintenance scheduling of next day are carried out safe check according to the historical data and the expansion short-term load forecasting of operation of power networks state, the accident potential of assessment operation of power networks, and provide warning;
(1-4), the generation schedule and the maintenance scheduling in a following week are carried out safe check according to the historical data and the short-term load forecasting of operation of power networks state, the accident potential of assessment operation of power networks, and provide warning.
2, method according to claim 1 is characterized in that wherein said step (1-1) monitors to the current running status of electrical network and assess that obtain the lsafety level and the accident potential of current operation of power networks, and provide warning, concrete steps are:
(2-1) the upper level grid dispatching center of electrical network at the corresponding levels utilizes the state estimation result to carry out at the spider lines equivalence, and meritorious, the reactive power of the meritorious and reactive power of the equivalent real-time grid model that will generate, generator, network load and busbar voltage are handed down to grid dispatching center at the corresponding levels;
(2-2) the equivalent real-time grid model that issues with the upper level grid dispatching center of grid dispatching center at the corresponding levels and the real-time model of electrical network that grid dispatching center at the corresponding levels is had jurisdiction over merge, and generate overall network equivalence model and distribute with trend that this overall situation network equivalence model is complementary;
(2-3) according to above-mentioned overall network equivalence model following overall situation operation of power networks state, the safety analysis that carry out automatically that electrical network static state, voltage are stable, transient stability and relay protection constant value cooperates, the safe condition of identification electrical network, and produce and report to the police.
3, method according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, wherein said step (1-2) is according to the historical data of operation of power networks state and the ultrashort phase trend forecast of electrical network, the following 15 minutes states of operation of power networks are constantly assessed, obtain the lsafety level and the accident potential of operation of power networks constantly in following 15 minutes, and provide warning, concrete steps are:
(3-1) the upper level grid dispatching center of electrical network at the corresponding levels utilizes the state estimation result to carry out at the spider lines equivalence, and meritorious, the reactive power of the meritorious and reactive power of the equivalent real-time grid model that will generate, generator, network load and busbar voltage are handed down to grid dispatching center at the corresponding levels;
(3-2) grid dispatching center at the corresponding levels is carried out ultra-short term to the linchpin electrical network, following 15 minutes network loads constantly of prediction, according to electrical network bus load distribution factor network load is assigned on each bus of electrical network, the trend that recomputates this area under one's jurisdiction electrical network distributes;
(3-3) grid dispatching center at the corresponding levels merges the electric network model in this area under one's jurisdiction and higher level's network equivalence model that trend distributes and the upper level grid dispatching center issues of above-mentioned this area under one's jurisdiction electrical network, generates the trend that is complementary with overall network equivalence model and distributes;
(3-4) to the safety analysis that above-mentioned tide model carries out that electrical network static state, voltage are stable, transient stability and relay protection constant value cooperate, the safe condition of identification electrical network, and produce and report to the police.
4, method according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, wherein said step (1-3) is according to the historical data and the expansion short-term load forecasting of operation of power networks state, generation schedule and maintenance scheduling to next day are carried out safe check, the accident potential of assessment operation of power networks, and provide warning, concrete steps are:
(4-1) the upper level grid dispatching center of electrical network at the corresponding levels utilizes the state estimation result to carry out at the spider lines equivalence, and meritorious, the reactive power of the meritorious and reactive power of the equivalent real-time grid model that will generate, generator, network load and busbar voltage are handed down to grid dispatching center at the corresponding levels;
(4-2) grid dispatching center at the corresponding levels combines per 15 minutes next day generation schedules of 96 of this area under one's jurisdiction electrical network, per 15 minutes results with interconnection exchange plan higher level's electrical network and per 15 minutes next day subregion expansion short-term load forecasting of 96 at 96, carry out the trend forecast of per 15 minutes 96 sections, the trend that obtains 96 sections distributes;
(4-3) grid dispatching center at the corresponding levels merges the trend distribution that generates overall network equivalence model and be complementary with this overall situation network equivalence model with the equivalent real-time grid model of higher level that the upper level control centre issues respectively with the tide model of above-mentioned 96 sections;
(4-3) next day maintenance plan that electrical network at the corresponding levels is formulated in advance changes into the electric grid operating sequence, and according to the tide model of above-mentioned 96 sections of sequential correction of the sequence of operation;
(4-4) to the safety analysis that the model of above-mentioned 96 trend sections carries out that electrical network static state, voltage are stable, transient stability and relay protection constant value cooperate, the accident potential of identification electrical network, and produce and report to the police.
5, method according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, wherein said step (1-4) is according to the historical data and the short-term load forecasting of operation of power networks state, generation schedule and maintenance scheduling to a following week are carried out safe check, the accident potential of assessment operation of power networks, and provide warning, concrete steps are:
(5-1) the upper level grid dispatching center of electrical network at the corresponding levels utilizes the state estimation result to carry out at the spider lines equivalence, and meritorious, the reactive power of the meritorious and reactive power of the equivalent real-time grid model that will generate, generator, network load and busbar voltage are handed down to grid dispatching center at the corresponding levels;
(5-2) grid dispatching center at the corresponding levels is with the generation schedule in steady three moment of peak of power consumption, low power consumption, electricity consumption of every day in next week of this area under one's jurisdiction electrical network, the interconnection exchange plan of electrical network at the corresponding levels and higher level's electrical network and the short-term load forecasting of electrical network three as a result combine, the trend forecast of discontinuity surface totally 21 time of steady three moment of peak of power consumption, low power consumption, electricity consumption of calculating every day in next week, the trend of discontinuity surface distributes when obtaining 21 in electrical network at the corresponding levels;
The tide model of discontinuity surface merged the trend distribution that generates overall network equivalence model and be complementary with this overall situation network equivalence model with the equivalent electric network model of higher level that the upper level control centre issues respectively when (5-3) grid dispatching center at the corresponding levels was with above-mentioned 21;
(5-4) next all maintenance scheduling of electrical network at the corresponding levels is changed into the electric grid operating sequence, the tide model of discontinuity surface during according to above-mentioned 21 of the sequential correction of electric grid operating sequence;
(5-5) to above-mentioned each the time discontinuity surface the safety analysis that tide model carries out that electrical network static state, voltage are stable, transient stability and relay protection constant value cooperate, the safe condition of identification electrical network, and produce and report to the police.
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