CN101216955A - Intelligent method of temporal-spatial prediction in disaster-changing of landslide - Google Patents
Intelligent method of temporal-spatial prediction in disaster-changing of landslide Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to an intelligent method for carrying out space-time prediction of the landslide catastrophe process. The invention is carried out via a computer, comprising the following steps of: 1) choosing a detained landslide to be predicted, confirming calculation parameters; 2) establishing a geometric model of the landslide intelligent prediction; 3) intelligently predicting the 3D stability of the landslide; 4) intelligently predicting the unstable state of the landslide; 5) intelligently predicting the activity intensity of the landslide as follows: computing the landslide deformation process in the unstable state, outputting deformation maps in real time until the end of the landslide. Compared with the prior art, the invention reduces the workload, improves the precision, simplifies the judging method of space-time predicting of the landslide catastrophe process with much convenience and reliability, and improves the maneuverability of the space-time predicting of the landslide catastrophe process. Therefore the invention is the simple, intuitionistic, economical and high-efficient space-time prediction of the landslide catastrophe process.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of landslide spatio-temporal prediction method, especially a kind of intelligent method that can carry out spatio-temporal prediction to landslide catastrophe process.The intelligent predicting method that a kind of rock-soil mechanics of more specifically saying so combines with field monitoring.
Background technology
China is the multiple district of landslide geologic hazard, and the landslide is annual causes enormous economic loss and great casualties to China.Along with socioeconomic continuous development, the landslide is as a kind of geologic hazard, and its serious harmfulness has caused great influence for local resident's life.Although the research work to landslide spatio-temporal prediction method has obtained great achievement, every year a large amount of landslide geologic hazards still takes place at present, show that still there is defective in existing landslide spatio-temporal prediction method.
At present, the landslide spatio-temporal prediction does not also have systems approach, and the method that usually adopts in the engineering practice is: at first judge that according to two-dimentional limit equilibrium method the landslide is stable unstable; According to the surface deformable observation of short-term, judge by rule of thumb and come down the roughly unstability time whether final decision reinforces then.Traditional landslide spatio-temporal prediction method exists and is theoretically unsound, and the deficiency that can not predict the gliding mass distortion, and precision can't guarantee.In addition, traditional landslide spatio-temporal prediction method is to adopt two-dimentional limit equilibrium method to differentiate Landslide Stability, and in fact the landslide is a three-dimensional problem, adopts two-dimentional computing method obviously can not reflect the true stress state on landslide; Moreover classic method is by judging the unstability time on landslide to the simple process of landslide displacement monitoring data, this method do not consider the to come down rheological characteristics of medium, and therefore, physical significance is indeterminate.
In a word, traditional landslide spatio-temporal prediction method does not reflect the non-linear nature of landslide rock soil mass material, therefore the catastrophe process on reflection landslide is not necessary to invent a kind of landslide spatio-temporal prediction systems approach that can reflect that landslide rock soil mass material nonlinearity essence can make things convenient for engineering to use again.
Summary of the invention
The object of the present invention is to provide a kind of simple, directly perceived, economic and intelligent method of temporal-spatial prediction in disaster-changing of landslide efficiently, this method can be differentiated the three-dimensional stability on landslide and the unstability time on landslide, and the while can be simulated the deformation process after the unstability that comes down.
This method comprises the steps: by computer run
1) calculating parameter is determined on selected concrete landslide to be predicted;
2) geometric model of foundation landslide intelligent predicting;
3) to the intelligent predicting of landslide three-dimensional stability: the three-dimensional security coefficient to single sliding surface landslide or many sliding surfaces landslide calculates, and judges that whether safety coefficient is greater than 1; When safety coefficient greater than 1 the time, enter the landslide instability status again and judge; Otherwise, EOP (end of program);
4) intelligent predicting of landslide instability status: employing bifurcation set equation is judged the sliding unstability of whether dashing forward that comes down; If whether the result, then continue to adopt the parameter of state of saturation, calculate landslide three-dimensional security coefficient; If the result is, then dope the landslide unstability time, enter the landslide activity prediction of strength again;
5) intelligent predicting of landslide activity intensity: the deformation process after the unstability of calculating landslide, export the deformation pattern of any time, finish until the landslide.
Specifically, the present invention adopts following steps that the catastrophe process on landslide is carried out spatio-temporal prediction:
1) calculating parameter is determined on selected concrete landslide to be predicted; As, determine cohesion c and the angle of internal friction of rock-soil material under natural and state of saturation on occurrence, pore water pressure size and the sliding surface of three-dimensional slipping plane; Three-dimensional gliding mass is carried out discretize, according to the opposite approximate glide direction of determining each discrete block of sliding surface up cut shear direction with the slipping plane tendency; According to the length of slipping plane perforation rate in-site measurement slipping plane shearing section and creep section, determine material west substance rheological model parameter on the sliding surface;
2) set up the geometric model of landslide intelligent predicting: be vertical bar post with three-dimensional gliding mass is discrete, determine the glide direction of discrete bar post, thereby determine the two dimensional cross-section of landslide time prediction
3) to the landslide three-dimensional stability intelligent predicting:
For single sliding surface landslide, find the solution normal stress distribution function on the two-dimentional sliding surface by limit equilibrium method, obtain safety coefficient F according to equilibrium of forces on 3 directions of three-dimensional gliding mass with around the equalising torque of 3 coordinate axis
s
For many sliding surfaces landslide, adopt plasticity limit analysis upper bound method to find the solution safety coefficient;
4) intelligent predicting of landslide unstability time:
Obtaining landslide displacement by the match of landslide displacement measured data changes polynomial expression in time and is:
u＝u(0)+h
1t+h
2t
2+h
3t
3+h
4t
4+h
5t
5
In the formula, u (0) is t=0 initial level displacement constantly, parameter h
1, h
2, h
3, h
4, h
5Constant coefficient for before the different power items of time variable t can obtain by the match measured data;
The bifurcation set equation 4p of the sliding surface medium west substance rheological parameter input cusp catastrophe theory that step 1) is definite
3+ 27q
2=0, the prominent sliding time that obtains coming down,, calculate the prominent sliding initial velocity of gliding mass simultaneously according to the Conversion of energy principle;
5) intelligent predicting of landslide activity intensity: gliding mass is carried out vertical bar branch discretize, obtain width, area and the elastic modulus of each stick, calculate landing body active procedure distortion, speed and the sliding distance of any time, finish until the landslide.
Above-mentioned Forecasting Methodology the 2nd) glide direction at the bottom of the vertical bar post in the three-dimensional gliding mass geometric model set up of step on the sliding surface has nothing in common with each other, the glide direction of each bar post be defined as sliding surface inclination angle at the bottom of the bar post oppositely, its glide direction unit vector is:
In the formula, S is the glide direction unit vector; θ is the angle of sliding surface adjacent two edges at the bottom of the bar post; α
xAnd α
yBe respectively the angle of sliding surface both sides, the end and coordinate axis; α is the angle on sliding surface tendency and bar post base.
Above-mentioned Forecasting Methodology the 3rd) in the step three-dimensional gliding mass by the vertical discrete capable and n row bar post of m that is, each bar post by the row i and the row j at place be defined as (i, j).
Above-mentioned Forecasting Methodology the 4th) in the step landslide unstability time prediction as criterion, its criterion is: equation 4p with the bifurcation set equation of catastrophe theory
3+ 27q
2=0 has positive real root, and p and q are control variable in the formula.
Above-mentioned Forecasting Methodology the 5th) prediction of landing body movement locus at first is considered as elastic slide block with gliding mass in the step, transmit sliding force and skid resistance by spring between the slide block, elastic deformation will take place in slide block under load actions such as sliding force and skid resistance simultaneously, find the solution the distortion and the speed of slide block then according to energy conservation.
Workload of the present invention significantly reduces than existing methods, improved precision, simplify the determination methods of temporal-spatial prediction in disaster-changing of landslide simultaneously, made temporal-spatial prediction in disaster-changing of landslide convenient and reliable, strengthened the operability of temporal-spatial prediction in disaster-changing of landslide.Therefore the present invention is a kind of simple, directly perceived, economic and temporal-spatial prediction in disaster-changing of landslide method efficiently.This method not only can be judged the three-dimensional stability on landslide by computer realization, and can judge the prominent sliding unstability time on landslide and the deformation process after the unstability of simulation landslide according to the bifurcation set of catastrophe theory.Solved the difficult problem of existing landslide catastrophe overall process intelligent predicting, for the tracking of landslide catastrophe process with a kind of simple and practical intelligent predicting method that provides is provided.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 is the process flow diagram of the embodiment of the invention 1;
Fig. 2 is the landslide sectional view of the embodiment of the invention 2;
Fig. 3 is landslide, the embodiment of the invention 3 a Chongqing planimetric map;
Fig. 4 (a)-Fig. 4 (c) is certain landslide sliding process variation diagram.
Embodiment
Embodiment 1: referring to Fig. 1, and a kind of intelligent method of temporal-spatial prediction in disaster-changing of landslide, its concrete implementation step is as follows:
1) calculating parameter is determined on selected concrete landslide to be predicted; As, determine cohesion c and the angle of internal friction of rock-soil material under natural and state of saturation on occurrence, pore water pressure size and the sliding surface of three-dimensional slipping plane; Three-dimensional gliding mass is carried out discretize, according to the opposite approximate glide direction of determining each discrete block of sliding surface up cut shear direction with the slipping plane tendency; According to the length of slipping plane perforation rate in-site measurement slipping plane shearing section and creep section, determine material west substance rheological model parameter on the sliding surface;
2) set up the geometric model of landslide intelligent predicting: be vertical bar post with three-dimensional gliding mass is discrete, determine the glide direction of each discrete bar post according to the occurrence of three-dimensional sliding surface, thereby determine the two dimensional cross-section of landslide time prediction;
3) to the intelligent predicting of landslide three-dimensional stability: the landslide three-dimensional security coefficient to single sliding surface landslide or many sliding surfaces landslide calculates, and judges that whether safety coefficient is greater than 1; When safety coefficient greater than 1 the time, enter the landslide instability status again and judge; Otherwise, EOP (end of program);
For single sliding surface landslide, find the solution normal stress distribution function on the two-dimentional sliding surface by limit equilibrium method, obtain safety coefficient F according to equilibrium of forces on 3 directions of three-dimensional gliding mass with around the equalising torque of 3 coordinate axis
s
For many sliding surfaces landslide, adopt plasticity limit analysis upper bound method to find the solution safety coefficient;
4) intelligent predicting of landslide unstability time: judge the whether prominent unstability of sliding that comes down; If whether the result, then continue to adopt the parameter of state of saturation, calculate landslide three-dimensional security coefficient; If the result is then to dope the landslide unstability time; Enter the landslide activity prediction of strength again;
Obtaining landslide displacement by the match of landslide displacement measured data changes polynomial expression in time and is:
u＝u(0)+h
1t+h
2t
2+h
3t
3+h
4t
4+h
5t
5
In the formula, u (0) is t=0 initial level displacement constantly, parameter h
1, h
2, h
3, h
4, h
5Constant coefficient for before the different power items of time variable t can obtain by the match measured data;
The sliding surface medium west substance rheological parameter that step 1) is determined is imported landslide unstability time prediction model; Bifurcation set equation 4p according to cusp catastrophe theory
3+ 27q
2=0, the prominent sliding time that obtains coming down,, calculate the prominent sliding initial velocity of gliding mass simultaneously according to the Conversion of energy principle;
5) intelligent predicting of landslide activity intensity: gliding mass is carried out vertical bar branch discretize, obtain width, area and the elastic modulus of each stick, calculate landing body active procedure distortion, speed and the sliding distance of any time, finish until the landslide.
Wherein the 2nd) glide direction on the sliding surface has nothing in common with each other at the bottom of the vertical bar post in the three-dimensional gliding mass geometric model set up of step, the glide direction of each bar post be defined as sliding surface inclination angle at the bottom of the bar post oppositely, its glide direction unit vector is:
In the formula, S is the glide direction unit vector; θ is the angle of sliding surface adjacent two edges at the bottom of the bar post; α
xAnd α
yBe respectively the angle of sliding surface both sides, the end and coordinate axis; α is the angle on sliding surface tendency and bar post base.
The 3rd) in the step three-dimensional gliding mass by the vertical discrete capable and n row bar post of m that is, each bar post by the row i and the row j at place be defined as (i, j).
The 4th) in the step landslide unstability time prediction with the bifurcation set equation of catastrophe theory as criterion, its criterion is: equation 4p
3+ 27q
2Whether=0 have positive real root, and in the formula, p and q are control variable.
The 5th) prediction of landing body movement locus at first is considered as elastic slide block with gliding mass in the step, transmit sliding force and skid resistance by spring between the slide block, elastic deformation will take place in slide block under load actions such as sliding force and skid resistance simultaneously, find the solution the distortion and the speed of slide block then according to energy conservation.
Embodiment 2: certain landslide three-dimensional security coefficient is determined
(1) main calculating parameter
The three-dimensional slip surface shape function on this landslide is known, as shown in Figure 2, and three-dimensional landslide sectional view during y=50m.This example is a triaxial ellipsoid shape sliding surface, and wherein gliding mass is the isotropy homogeneous material, and calculating parameter is as follows: cohesion c=29kPa, angle of internal friction =20 °, gliding mass unit weight γ=18.8kN/m
3
(2) calculation process
1. step 1: determine three-dimensional slip surface shape and gliding mass physical dimension
Sliding surface function s can be expressed as
Domatic function z
1For
Determine volume, thickness and the sliding surface occurrence of gliding mass according to formula (1) and formula (2).
2. step 2: with three-dimensional gliding mass discretize
Calculate used discrete model as shown in Figure 2, gliding mass is 3017 vertical bar posts by dispersing.
3. step 3: the glide direction of each bar post is determined in occurrence according to sliding surface
According to the opposite approximate glide direction of determining each discrete block of sliding surface up cut shear direction with the slipping plane tendency.
4. step 4:, suppose sliding surface normal stress distribution function according to two-dimentional limit equilibrium method
Sliding surface normal stress is distributed as when supposing that gliding mass reaches capacity equilibrium state:
In the formula, F
S0Safety coefficient for initial setting; C is the cohesion of sliding surface rock-soil material; is an angle of internal friction; λ
1, λ
2, λ
3, λ
4Be undetermined parameter; d
1, d
2Coordinate figure for gliding mass its maximum width at y direction; x
a, x
bBe respectively the coordinate figure of gliding mass outlet and trailing edge x direction; (x y) is normal stress to σ; Q is a pore water pressure; (x y) is correction function to ξ; Δ is the sliding surface area; σ
0(x y) is primary stress; α
xBe the sliding surface inclination angle; W is a gliding mass gravity; X and y are bar post center point coordinate.
5. step 5: try to achieve safe explicit solution according to the equation of static equilibrium
Whole for three-dimensional landslide, need to consider 6 equilibrium conditions of gliding mass, i.e. x, y and z direction equilibrium of forces are around the equalising torque of x axle, y axle and z axle.
(3) result of calculation analysis
Result of calculation is as shown in table 1, and comparative analysis shows that the result of calculation of the inventive method and two-dimentional limit equilibrium method and two-dimentional limit analysis method result of calculation are approaching.
Table 1 different calculation methods is tried to achieve the safety coefficient result of calculation contrast of example one
| Computing method | The two dimension limit equilibrium method | The two dimension limit analysis method | This method is separated |
| Safety coefficient | 2.122 | 2.262 | 2.16826 |
As seen, predicting the outcome of the method for the invention is more approaching with the method for national regulation, but workload significantly reduces.
Embodiment 3: the Chongqing temporal-spatial prediction in disaster-changing of landslide
(1) calculating parameter is determined on selected landslide, Chongqing
Certain landslide is positioned at Chongqing Nanping, highway Chongqing, Guizhou Province section, this side slope during in Dec, 1997 to 1998, excavated roadbed year March since the influence that is subjected to heavy rain and artificial perturbation progressively unstability formed circular arc drawing crack seam.The domatic trend of gliding mass be SN to, the landslide is the irregular shape of a hoof in the plane, laterally wide about 200～360m vertically is about 230m, the high 10～20m of landslide trailing edge cliff, 70～80 ° of the gradients.The sliding mass variation in thickness is bigger, is the dark rule in shallow middle part on every side, the thickest 40m that reaches in middle part, the about 19.5m of average thickness.About 70,000 m of landslide area area
2, about 1,400,000 m of volume
3, belong to major landslip, as shown in Figure 3.
(2) set up the geometric model of landslide intelligent predicting and to the intelligent predicting of landslide three-dimensional stability:
The concrete steps that the three-dimensional security coefficient is found the solution are as follows:
1. step 1: set up geometric model
Gliding mass is a series of vertical sticks according to the turning point of broken line shape sliding surface is discrete, and looking each stick is rigid body, and sliding band and bar interblock changing of the relative positions position are regarded as plastomer.Discrete area in the gliding mass up and down is numbered, finds out the neutral surface of representing main sliding direction simultaneously; This landslide is actual to be three layers of sliding surface, because the upper strata gliding mass has passed through certain improvement, two sliding surfaces in the gliding mass of upper strata are comparatively approaching and the actual measurement distortion is close substantially, therefore, still press one deck during calculating and consider.Up and down to be divided in the oxy plane projection be the vertical bar post of 2m * 2m to gliding mass, and the bar post adds up to 8016.
2. step 2: the velocity field of finding the solution motor-driven permission
The computation process of determining the velocity field of whole block system mainly comprises following a few step:
A) the stick speed of c row bar post first row on the gliding mass is V under the supposition neutral surface
1, the angle of direction and end sliding surface is , and is parallel to neutral surface, constructs the velocity field of the motor-driven permission of each stick of neutral surface according to the two dimension slope limit analysis method;
B) do not exist the border stick speed absolute value of downside stick to equal the velocity field of adjacent stick speed assumed calculation border, left side stick by each row first row, in like manner can calculate the border stick that there is not the downside stick in last row of each row;
C) according to velocity occluding relation between the adjacent stick, progressively calculate the speed of each stick from neutrality towards both sides and stick is capable and row, column and row between relative velocity;
D) according to the same position speed calculation relative velocity of slide block up and down of gliding mass stick up and down.
3. step 3: iterative safety coefficient
The external power that deadweight is done according to external action load and gliding mass and the internal energy of plastically deforming area consume the equilibrium condition that equates and set up three-dimensional gliding mass fictitious power equation and be
In the formula, interior can the dissipation on first representative row interface, the left side, the interior of second representative row interface can dissipate, and represents interior can the dissipation on the end sliding surface for the 3rd, represents interior can the dissipation on the upglide surface for the 4th; First on the right is a gliding mass gravity institute work, second merit of doing for external load.Can obtain safety coefficient by finding the solution following formula.
This landslide in order to consider influencing each other between many sliding surfaces, selects for use many sliding surfaces landslide three-dimensional stability analytical model to calculate for many sliding surfaces landslide.Main calculating parameter is as shown in table 2.
Table 2 sliding surface calculating parameter
| The landslide layering | Gliding mass unit weight γ (kN/m 3) | Cohesion c (kPa) | Angle of internal friction (°) |
| Upper strata lower floor | 24.92 24.92 | 55.0 60.0 | 26.0 25.0 |
Calculated the stability of this upper strata, landslide sliding surface and lower floor's sliding surface respectively, obtained considering the safety coefficient after the sliding surface interphase interaction, concrete result of calculation sees Table 3.Result of calculation shows: lower floor's sliding surface is basicly stable, and the upper strata sliding surface is unstable or be in state of limit equilibrium.Wherein, the result of calculation of upper strata sliding surface is littler than the result of calculation of transfer coefficient method, mainly is because considered the interaction of sliding surface.
The contrast of table 3 distinct methods safety coefficient result of calculation
| The landslide layering | Transfer coefficient method result of calculation | The method of the invention |
| Upper strata lower floor | 1.11 1.65 | 0.99 1.26 |
(3) landslide unstability time intelligence prediction
Concrete implementation step is as follows:
1. step 1: the constitutive model parameter of determining the sliding surface medium according to the indoor creep test of routine
The calculating major parameter is: shear section modulus of shearing λ=1.64GPa, peak displacement u
c=0.0109m, initial displacement u
0=0.0091m, coefficient of softing φ=0.78, water cut ζ=0.05, gliding mass mass M=29328kg shears the section inclination alpha
1=35 °, creep section inclination alpha
2=20 °, trailing edge drawing crack segment length h
w=0.01m, gliding mass unit weight γ=24.92kN/m
3, instantaneous shear modulus G
0=40kPa, long-term shear modulus G
∞=20kPa, viscoelasticity coefficient η
1=4.05 * 10
11Pas, viscoplasticity coefficient η
2=2.887 * 10
11Pas.
2. step 2: match displacement monitoring data obtain the displacement time relationship
According to the earth deformation monitoring result prediction landslide unstability time of this landslide 3-3 ' section (as shown in Figure 3), the front three-dimensional stability the analysis showed that the upper strata sliding surface is in state of limit equilibrium, lower floor's sliding surface is in steady state (SS), and therefore, this section is only calculated the unstability time of upper strata sliding surface.The displacement time relationship that monitoring result obtains is:
u＝2×10
-37t
5-8×10
-30t
4-6×10
-23t
3+8×10
-16t
2-4×10
-9t+0.0091 (5)
In the formula, displacement unit is a rice (m), and chronomere is second (s).
3. step 3: find the solution prominent sliding time and prominent slip velocity degree
According to the bifurcation set equation of cusp catastrophe theory, obtained the computing formula of prominent sliding time of landslide, simultaneously according to the Conversion of energy principle, derived the computing formula of the prominent sliding initial velocity of gliding mass.
Calculate by the landslide before reinforcing and to show: in the time of t=169.6 days, the landslide sliding unstability of will dashing forward.Calculating by the inventive method shows: if do not take a retaining reinforcement measure, the prominent possibly sliding unstability in this landslide causes heavy losses.
(4) intelligent predicting of landslide activity intensity
Concrete implementation step is as follows:
1. step 1: the landslide carried out discretize and determine the geometric parameter of each stick
Shown in Fig. 4 (a), whole landing body is divided into ten sticks before the landing body unstability.Its concrete calculating parameter is as follows: elastic modulus E
0=15MPa, initial velocity v
I, 0=0, friction factor f=0.4, stick original width b
I, 0=8.06m, computing time step delta t=0.02s.Gliding mass is divided into ten sticks, and the width of each stick is 8.06m, and the area of each stick is respectively shown in the table 4.
The area of each stick of table 4
| Stick number | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| Area (m 2) | 16.81 | 75.86 | 105.52 | 130.66 | 157.85 | 173.29 | 192.77 | 188.52 | 164.21 | 133.58 |
The inclination angle of sliding each section of bed is
2. step 2: according to the speed of spring one each stick of slide block model solution
Its detailed calculated method is:
A) find the solution the quality of each stick;
B) according to the kinematics formula, the power of calculating between the gliding mass bar of prominent sliding moment is closed prominent sliding acceleration;
C) choose a small time step increment Delta t, keep continuous unseparated condition to try to achieve the t+ Δ t speed of slide block constantly at sliding process according to gliding mass;
D) find the solution stick distortion according to the Elasticity formula, block-by-block is found the solution t+ Δ t power between the bar of slide block constantly back to front;
E) try to achieve stick according to the kinematics formula and close frictional resistance at t+ Δ t acceleration constantly;
F) repeating step b)～e) speed up to each stick is zero, gets sliding time and maximum sliding distance to the end.
3. step 3: according to each speed and distortion whole sectional view in landslide of drawing any time constantly.
Result of calculation shows: the landslide stops to slide when t=8.06s, and the maximum skidding distance of gliding mass leading edge is 42.3m, and the distortion of landslide catastrophe process is shown in Fig. 4 (a)-4 (c).
As seen, the method for the invention can be found the solution many sliding surfaces landslide three-dimensional security coefficient, and can be to the activity intensity quantitative forecast of landslide catastrophe process.These all are that existing landslide spatio-temporal prediction method institute is inaccessiable.
Claims (3)
1. the intelligent method of a temporal-spatial prediction in disaster-changing of landslide, this method comprises the steps: by computer run
1) calculating parameter is determined on selected concrete landslide to be predicted;
2) geometric model of foundation landslide intelligent predicting;
3) to the intelligent predicting of landslide three-dimensional stability: the landslide three-dimensional security coefficient to single sliding surface landslide or many sliding surfaces landslide calculates, and judges that whether safety coefficient is greater than 1; When safety coefficient is less than or equal to 1, enter the judgement of landslide unstability time again; Otherwise, EOP (end of program);
4) intelligent predicting of landslide instability status: employing bifurcation set equation is judged the sliding unstability of whether dashing forward that comes down; When the result is not, then continue to adopt the parameter of state of saturation, calculate the three-dimensional security coefficient that comes down; When the result for being, then dope the landslide unstability time; Enter the landslide activity prediction of strength again;
5) intelligent predicting of landslide activity intensity: the deformation process after the unstability of calculating landslide, export the deformation pattern of any time, finish until the landslide.
2. the intelligent method of temporal-spatial prediction in disaster-changing of landslide as claimed in claim 1 is characterized in that:
1) cohesion c and the angle of internal friction of rock-soil material under natural and state of saturation on occurrence, pore water pressure size and the sliding surface of three-dimensional slipping plane determined on selected concrete landslide to be predicted; Three-dimensional gliding mass is carried out discretize, according to the opposite approximate glide direction of determining each discrete block of sliding surface up cut shear direction with the slipping plane tendency; According to the length of slipping plane perforation rate in-site measurement slipping plane shearing section and creep section, determine material west substance rheological model parameter on the sliding surface;
2) set up the geometric model of landslide intelligent predicting: be vertical bar post with three-dimensional gliding mass is discrete, determine the glide direction of discrete bar post, thereby determine the two dimensional cross-section of landslide time prediction;
3) to the landslide three-dimensional stability intelligent predicting:
For single sliding surface landslide, find the solution normal stress distribution function on the two-dimentional sliding surface by limit equilibrium method, obtain safety coefficient F according to equilibrium of forces on 3 directions of three-dimensional gliding mass with around the equalising torque of 3 coordinate axis
s
For many sliding surfaces landslide, adopt plasticity limit analysis upper bound method to find the solution safety coefficient;
4) intelligent predicting of landslide unstability time:
Obtaining landslide displacement by the match of landslide displacement measured data changes polynomial expression in time and is:
u＝u(0)+h
1t+h
2t
2+h
3t
3+h
4t
4+h
5t
5
In the formula, u (0) is t=0 initial level displacement constantly, parameter h
1, h
2, h
3, h
4, h
5Constant coefficient for before the different power items of time variable t obtains by the match measured data;
The bifurcation set equation 4p of the sliding surface medium west substance rheological parameter input cusp catastrophe theory that step 1) is definite
3+ 27q
2=0, the prominent sliding time that obtains coming down,, calculate the prominent sliding initial velocity of gliding mass simultaneously according to the Conversion of energy principle;
5) intelligent predicting of landslide activity intensity: gliding mass is carried out vertical bar branch discretize, obtain width, area and the elastic modulus of each stick, calculate landing body active procedure distortion, speed and the sliding distance of any time, finish until the landslide.
3. the intelligent method of temporal-spatial prediction in disaster-changing of landslide as claimed in claim 2 is characterized in that:
Described Forecasting Methodology the 2nd) glide direction at the bottom of the vertical bar post in the three-dimensional gliding mass geometric model set up of step on the sliding surface has nothing in common with each other, the glide direction of each bar post be defined as sliding surface inclination angle at the bottom of the bar post oppositely, its glide direction unit vector is:
In the formula, S is the glide direction unit vector; θ is the angle of sliding surface adjacent two edges at the bottom of the bar post; α
xAnd α
yBe respectively the angle of sliding surface both sides, the end and coordinate axis; α is the angle on sliding surface tendency and bar post base;
Described Forecasting Methodology the 3rd) in the step three-dimensional gliding mass by the vertical discrete capable and n row bar post of m that is, each bar post by the row i and the row j at place be defined as (i, j);
Described Forecasting Methodology the 4th) in the step landslide unstability time prediction as criterion, its criterion is: equation 4p with the bifurcation set equation of catastrophe theory
3+ 27q
2=0 has positive real root, and p and q are control variable in the formula;
Described Forecasting Methodology the 5th) prediction of landing body movement locus at first is considered as elastic slide block with gliding mass in the step, transmit sliding force and skid resistance by spring between the slide block, elastic deformation will take place in slide block under load actions such as sliding force and skid resistance simultaneously, find the solution the distortion and the speed of slide block then according to energy conservation.
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