CA2021583A1 - Monitoring and forecasting customer traffic - Google Patents

Monitoring and forecasting customer traffic

Info

Publication number
CA2021583A1
CA2021583A1 CA 2021583 CA2021583A CA2021583A1 CA 2021583 A1 CA2021583 A1 CA 2021583A1 CA 2021583 CA2021583 CA 2021583 CA 2021583 A CA2021583 A CA 2021583A CA 2021583 A1 CA2021583 A1 CA 2021583A1
Authority
CA
Canada
Prior art keywords
customer
time
station
registering
entrance
Prior art date
Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
Abandoned
Application number
CA 2021583
Other languages
French (fr)
Inventor
Marcel Dextraze
Miguel A. Marin
Current Assignee (The listed assignees may be inaccurate. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the list.)
BESSETTE JEAN-GUY
Original Assignee
Marcel Dextraze
Miguel A. Marin
Bessette, Jean-Guy
Priority date (The priority date is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the date listed.)
Filing date
Publication date
Application filed by Marcel Dextraze, Miguel A. Marin, Bessette, Jean-Guy filed Critical Marcel Dextraze
Priority to CA 2021583 priority Critical patent/CA2021583A1/en
Publication of CA2021583A1 publication Critical patent/CA2021583A1/en
Abandoned legal-status Critical Current

Links

Abstract

ABSTRACT OF THE DISCLOSURE
The disclosure describes a system for monitoring and forecasting customer traffic and customer servicing at a location wherein each customer desires to be served at any one of a plurality of available service stations. A detector at the entrance of a defined area detects passage of a customer at the entrance. A display adjacent the exit of the defined area is activatable to identify an available service station. At each service station, a sensor detects the presence of a customer proximate to the station. A data processor is used for registering the time when the passage is detected, the time when a change of state occurs at each station, the time when the display is enabled to be activated and the time when it is activated or deactivated. The times registered are then computed by a method, known as the discrete event modeling and simulation, to establish customer traffic monitoring and forecasting.

Description

2~2~ ~3 FIELD OF THE INVENTION
The present invention relates to a method and a system for monitoring and forecasting customer traffic and customer servicing at a location wherein each customer desires to be served at any one of a plurality of available service stations.

BACKGROUND OF ~HE INVENTION
A system and method for forecasting bank traffic and scheduling work assignments for bank personnél are described in Canadian patent 1,258,304 issued August 8, 1989 to Katsof et al. This patent discloses a system which uses data gathering means for sensing the arrival and departure of customers as well as when a teller is at a station. Data processing means counts the arrivals and departures and measures the amount of time that the teller is available at each station and the amount of time that the teller is active.
Two detectors are used: one at the entrance to a queue, the other at the exit of the queue. The forecasting method uses a queuing model to obtain forecast of waiting time per customer and teller utilization. A record is kept of the number of arrivals observed during each an interval and of the average service time per each day of the week.

21)2~ 5~3 OBJECT~ AND 8TATEMENT OF THE INVENTION
It is an object of the present invention to provide a system and a method for monitoring and forecasting customer traffic and customer servicing in a manner which greatly reduces mathematical computations, which increases the accuracy in real time and which uses less components than in the systems of the prior art.

This is achieved by providing a system and a method which uses a computing approach known as the Discrete Event Modeling and Simulation (DEMS) which is well known in the literature and is described in various articles, including "Introduction to Simulation and SLAM
II", Third Edition, 1986, A. Allan B. Pritsker, chapter 11 (pages 380-427).

Discrete event modeling consists in modeling a system by describing the changes that occur in the system at discrete points in time. Basic to this method is the concept of "event time" which is defined as an isolated point in time where the state of the system may change;
an "event" is known as the associated logic for processing the changes in state of the system.

A discrete event model of a system is constructed by defining types of events that can occur and then by modeling the logic associated with each event type.

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The dynamic behavior of the system is produced by representing, in a time-ordered sequence, the changes in states according to the logic of each event.

In discrete event simulation, the system status changes only at the beginning of an activity when something is started or at the end of the activity when something is terminated. Events are used to model the start and completion of activities.

When an event occurs, the state of the model can change in four ways:
1. by altering the value of one or more variables;
2. by altering the m~mber of entities present;
3. by altering the values assigned to one or more attributes of an entity; and
4. by altering the relationship among entities through file manipulation.

To clarify the above definitions and the application of the DEMS approach, consider the following event model of a single-queue single-server situation.

Consider a bank with one teller. The "states"
of the system will be measured by the number of customers in the system and the status of the teller.

2~21~3 The "event types" are:
1) a customer arrival event; and 2) an end-of-service event.
It will be assumed that all significant changes in the system status can occur only at the arrival time of a customer or at the time the service ends, in other words, the system does not change status between these two event times.

The activities of the system are reduced to one only, namely the service activity of the customer. This activity begins at either the time of arrival of the customer or at the time that the teller completes service for another customer. The starting time of service activity can be either in the customer arrival event or in the end-of-service event.

The status of the teller is described by the variable BUSY. A value O for BUSY denotes "teller is busy" while a value 1 denotes "teller is idle".

Customers are represented as "entities" with one attribute denoting arrival time of the customer.

This attribute is used for collecting statistics on time in the system for each customer.
- 5 _ ~ 5~3 The model uses a file (queue) ranked first-in, first-out (FIF0) for storing entities (customers) waiting for service when the teller is busy.

The state of the model at any instant of time is defined by:
- the value of the variable BUSY;
- the location of the customer;
- the entities; and - the attribute values of the entities.

This example shows that a complete modeling and simulation of the bank-teller system needs only two types of inputs, namely:
1) customer-arrival times (iOe. sensing the customer as he or she enters the waiting line), and 2) teller-service time (i.e. sensing the service time of a customer by the sensor at the teller booth).

With these two inputs, it is possible to model and simulate the behavior of the system and collect statistics based on observations (customer waiting time) and time persistent variables (teller utilization).

The present invention therefore relates to a system for monitoring and forecasting customer traffic 2 ~ 3 and customer servicing at a location wherein each customer desires to be served at any one of a plurality of available service stations, the customers being in a defined area having an entrance and an exit, the system comprising:
A. data gathering means including:
a) detecting means, at the entrance, for detecting passage of a customer at the entrance;
b) display means, adjacent the exit, activatable for displaying identification of an available service station;
c) sensing means, at each service station, for sensing the presence of a customer proximate to the station;
d) means for collecting information relative to the detecting means, displaying means and sensing means;

B. enabling means for allowing or disallowing the display means to indicate the availability of a service station; and C. data processing means including:
- means for registering the time when passage is detected;

~Q2~3 ~3 - means for registering the time when the sensing means is activated or deactivated at each station;
- means for registering the time when the display means is activated or deactivated;
- means for registering the time when the enabling means allowed or disallowed said displaying means to indicate the availability of a service station; and - means providing time correlation between the times registered by the registering means; this time correlation being established by using a discrete event modeling and simulation method to thereby monitor and forecast customer traffic.

The present invention also relates to a method for monitoring and forecasting customer traffic a-nd customer servicing at a location wherein each customer desires to be served at any one of a plurality of available service stations, the customers being in a defined area having an entrance, and an exit, comprising the steps of:
a) detecting, at the entrance, passage of a customer thereby;

2~2~5~3 b) registering the time when passage is detected;
c) enabling display means located adjacent the exit to allow or disallow identification of an available service station to a customer;
d) registering the time when the display means is enabled and disabled;
e) activating enabled display means located adjacent the exit to identify, to a customer, an available service station;
f) registering the time when the display means is activated or deactivated;
g) sensing, at each service station, a change of state resulting from a customer being proximate, or not, to the station;
h) registering each time a change of state occurs at each station; and i) establishing time correlation between the times registered by using a discrete event modeling and simulation method to thereby monitor and forecast customer traffic.

Some of the advantages obtained with the present invention are:
1) only one detector is needed at the entrance of the queue instead of two used in the prior art systems;

2~2~583 g ~) the interaction between events with reference to the real time allows to de~ermine the presence of customers at a station with respect to the in~ormation displayed by the display means (direction and teller number); it is thus possible to determine if a customer came from other than the waiting line;
3) time correlation between different event times allows the self-adjustment of the system in case of skew (or difference), between the system waiting line and the real one;
4) historical data may be accumulated as usually; the resulting statistical distributions or tables can be applied to load forecasting by feeding them into the simulated system using the DEMS approach.

Other ob~ects and further scope of applicability of the present invention will become apparent from the detailed description given hereinafter.
It should be understood, however, that this detailed description, while indicating preferred embodiments of the invention, is ~iven by way of illustration only, since various changes and modifications within the spirit and scope of the invention will become apparent to those skilled in the art.

~ Q ~ 3~ 3 IN T~E D~AWINGS:
Figure 1 is a schematic drawing of a system made in accordance with the present invention.

DESCRIPTION OF PREFERRED ENBODI~ENTS
Referring to figure 1, there is shown a defined area, generally denoted 10, having an entrance 12 and an exit 14. In this area, there may be a single queue, such as the one illustrated as 16, or various queue arrangements allowing customers to be present at some time at the exit 14 for servicing. Further, the customers in this defined area may not be arranged in any pattern at all as long as some display be used or call made to indicate to one customer that it is time for him or her to approach the exit 14 for servicing.

A detector 18 is located at the entrance 12 and detects the passage of a customer in or out of the entrance 12. Should there be more than one entrance, additional detectors are required for each of those entrances.

A display 20 is located adjacent the exit 14 to inform the customer at the exit which of a series of service stations A, C, D, E or F is available for servicing~ A sensor 22, 24, 26, 28, 30, 32, preferably hidden, is located at each teller station to detect the presence of a customer in a customer detecting zone 34, ti x ~

~, 38, 40, 42, 44 associated with each teller station.
The sensor at each station detects the arrival or departure of a customer to that station as well as the entrance or exit of the customer in the customer detecting zone. In other words, if a customer being served moves out of the detection zone for some reason and then returns therein for further servicing, the sensor will count two presences.

A connection box 46 interconnects the sensors 22, 24, 26, 28, 30, 32, the display 20 and the entrance detector 18. Box 46 is connected to an input/output processing unit 48 which forms part of a computer system that also includes a CRT display 50 and a printer 52.

The CRT display 50 is used by an operator to enable or disable the display 20; when enabled, the display will provide identification as to what service station is available. The operator also can determine whether a teller is present, or not, at its or her station.

In operation, customers enter into the waiting line 16 thus activating the entrance detector 18. The processing unit 48 registers the time at which the activation occurs. If a customer exits from the area by the entrance, the detector 18 will count this passage.

rS

~ 12 ~

Customers usually wait in line for service until the display 20 indicates the identification number of a free teller and, in most cases, the direction for the customer to reach the available tPller.

When a customer reaches the teller station and enters the detection zone, his or her presence is detected by the sensor located at that station. When this sensor changes state, the time of this occurence is recorded. When a teller is available for servicing, his or her number and direction are shown on the display 20 and a bip sound is activated to call the attention of the customer located at the head of the waiting line or at exit 14.

Preferably, there is one channel 54 connecting to a dual display 20 with the processing unit 48. The purpose of the dual display is to address independently two possible directions and two numerical displays. The system produces a delay between these two displays so that the customer at the head of the waiting line sees only one display (one direction with one teller number) thus having no ambiguity as to where to go. It displays the available stations in the same order as they were released.

The entrance detector and the sensors are the only devices which trigger a change of state in the 2~2~3 system. Therefore, a customer is considered as an entity with one or several attributes associated to it. One of these attributes is the arrival time, i.e., the time of activation of the entrance detector.

The system keeps files of customer-arrival times, customer-served times and a file representing customers, identified with their arrival time and waiting for service.

Real time correlation of the contents of these file is effected by means of the discrete event modeling and simulation method described above. With this correlation, it is possible to accurately activate the display without ambiguity, detect differences between the system waiting line file and the real waiting line, produce daily reports of customer service and teller utilization, determine the statistical distribution of customer arrival times and teller service times, and produce load forecasting by system simulation.

In the present system, there are two software components: the application software dedicated to the real time operation of the system; and the application software dedicated to load forecasting. The first application is hasically a data acquisition system tailored to the needs of the DEMS method. The second application uses statistical formulae to derive the ~ ~ 2 r 3 l~

distributions of the historical data collected. A
discrete-event-based softwar~ simulator constructed on the basis the method described above, is used to forecast system load.

Although the invention has been described above with respect with one specific application, i.e. bank, it will be evident to a person skilled in the art that it may be modified and refined in various ways to be used in other application where a customer waits in line wishing to be served by any one of a plurality of servicing stations. It is therefore wished to have it understood that the present invention should not be limited in scope, except by the terms of the following claims.

Claims (2)

The embodiments of the invention in which an exclusive property or privilege is claimed are defined as follows:
1. A system for monitoring and forecasting customer traffic and customer servicing at a location wherein each customer desires to be served at any one of a plurality of available service stations, the customers being in a defined area having entrance means and exit means, said system comprising:
A. data gathering means including:
a) detecting means, at said entrance means, for detecting passage of a customer at said entrance means;
b) display means, adjacent said exit means, activatable for displaying identification of an available service station;
c) sensing means, at each service station, for sensing the presence of a customer proximate to said station;
d) means for collecting information relative to said detecting means, displaying means and sensing means;

B. enabling means for allowing or disallowing said display means to indicate the availability of a service station; and C. data processing means including:
- means for registering the time when said passage is detected;
- means for registering the time when said sensing means is activated or deactivated at each station;
- means for registering the time when said display means is activated or deactivated;
- means for registering the time when said enabling means allowed or disallowed said displaying means to indicate the availability of a service station;
and - means providing time correlation between the times registered by said registering means; said time correlation being established by using a discrete event modeling and simulation method to thereby monitor and forecast customer traffic.
2. A method for monitoring and forecasting customer traffic and customer servicing at a location wherein each customer desires to be served at any one of a plurality of available service stations, the customers being in a defined area having entrance means and exit means, comprising the steps of:
a) detecting, at said entrance means, passage of a customer thereby;

b) registering the time when said passage is detected;
c) enabling display means located adjacent said exit means to allow or disallow identification of an available service station to a customer;
d) registering the time when said display means is enabled and disabled;
e) activating enabled display means located adjacent said exit means to identify to a customer an available service station;
f) registering the time when the display means is activated or deactivated;
g) sensing, at each service station, a change of state resulting from a customer being proximate or not to said station;
h) registering each time a change of state occurs at each station; and i) establishing time correlation between the times registered by using a discrete event modeling and simulation method to thereby monitor and forecast customer traffic.
CA 2021583 1990-07-19 1990-07-19 Monitoring and forecasting customer traffic Abandoned CA2021583A1 (en)

Priority Applications (1)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
CA 2021583 CA2021583A1 (en) 1990-07-19 1990-07-19 Monitoring and forecasting customer traffic

Applications Claiming Priority (1)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
CA 2021583 CA2021583A1 (en) 1990-07-19 1990-07-19 Monitoring and forecasting customer traffic

Publications (1)

Publication Number Publication Date
CA2021583A1 true CA2021583A1 (en) 1992-01-20

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Family Applications (1)

Application Number Title Priority Date Filing Date
CA 2021583 Abandoned CA2021583A1 (en) 1990-07-19 1990-07-19 Monitoring and forecasting customer traffic

Country Status (1)

Country Link
CA (1) CA2021583A1 (en)

Cited By (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
GB2495615A (en) * 2011-10-07 2013-04-17 Tensator Group Ltd Automated call-forward for a queue

Cited By (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
GB2495615A (en) * 2011-10-07 2013-04-17 Tensator Group Ltd Automated call-forward for a queue

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