AU2020103561A4

AU2020103561A4 - Method and apparatus for predicting influence of trade disputes on total electricity consumption

Info

Publication number: AU2020103561A4
Application number: AU2020103561A
Authority: AU
Inventors: Jinhui DUAN; Guoqiang JI; Xingpei JI; Jiangtao Li; Qing Liu; Xiaocong Liu; Baoguo SHAN; Xiandong TAN; Wei Tang; Hong Wang; Xiang Wang; Yuyan WENG; Chenrui WU; Shanshan WU; Nan Xu; Zhao XU; Wanlei XUE; Chenglong Zhang; Chuncheng Zhang; Lili Zhang
Original assignee: State Grid Energy Research Institute Co Ltd; Economic and Technological Research Institute of State Grid Shandong Electric Power Co Ltd
Current assignee: State Grid Energy Research Institute Co Ltd; Economic and Technological Research Institute of State Grid Shandong Electric Power Co Ltd
Priority date: 2020-08-03
Filing date: 2020-11-19
Publication date: 2021-02-04
Anticipated expiration: 2028-11-19

Abstract

The invention provides a method and an apparatus for predicting the influence of trade disputes on total electricity consumption. It's an object of the invention to provide a method for measuring the influence of the international trade disputes on total electricity consumption in the whole society of China, including: comprehensively quantifying the influence of the international trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption increment for a sub-sector, calculating how the sub-sector and three industries in China are influenced by the international trade disputes in electricity consumption by considering the change of electricity consumption per increment in the sub-sector, and then using an econometric model to calculate the influence of the international trade disputes on electricity consumption for residential living to finally obtain the influence of the international trade disputes on total electricity consumption in the whole society of China. As such, the influence of the international trade disputes on China's economy and electricity demand as well as its trend in the fourteenth Five-Year Plan period is studied, which is of great significance for government to formulate the fourteenth Five-Year Plan together with enterprises, and to avoid external risks. 1/9 Acquire a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of an electricity consumption increment for sub-sector through a pre-constructed Global Trade Analysis Project model according to known policies on additional 5101 tariffs Acquire a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consuption for three industries according to kaon electricity consumption for the sub sector, electricity consmWtion per increment, and the percentage of the influence of trade 5102 disputes on the growth rate of the electricity consumtion increment for the sub-sector Acquire an u average natural growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living according to history data, and acquire a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living according to the annual average 5103 natural growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living and knon actual electricity consumption for residential living IT Predict a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of total electricity constaption according to the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for three industries and the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living Fig. 1

Description

1/9

Acquire a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of an electricity consumption increment for sub-sector through a pre-constructed Global Trade Analysis Project model according to known policies on additional 5101 tariffs

Acquire a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consuption for three industries according to kaon electricity consumption for the sub sector, electricity consmWtion per increment, and the percentage of the influence of trade 5102 disputes on the growth rate of the electricity consumtion increment for the sub-sector

Acquire an u average natural growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living according to history data, and acquire a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living according to the annual average natural growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living andknon actual 5103 electricity consumption for residential living

IT

Predict a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of total electricity constaption according to the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for three industries and the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living

Fig. 1

METHOD AND APPARATUS FOR PREDICTING INFLUENCE OF TRADE DISPUTES ON TOTAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION

Technical Field The present application relates to the technical field of electrical engineering, more particularly, to a method and an apparatus for predicting the influence of international trade disputes on total electricity consumption in the whole society of China.

Background Art Among many factors influencing electricity demand, the influence of international trade disputes is in want of further research due to its uncertainty and complexity. Under the influence of international trade disputes, the pressure of the economic downturn is building up, and the future trend of electricity demand faces great uncertainty. Confronted with the uncertainty of the current international trade disputes, especially the Sino-US trade disputes, it is of great significance to gain further insights into the influence of the international trade disputes on electricity consumption in the whole society of China and to study the trend of electricity demand in the fourteenth Five-Year Plan period.

Summary of the Invention The invention provides a method and an apparatus for predicting the influence of trade disputes on total electricity consumption to at least make up for the lack of studies on the influence of international trade disputes on total electricity consumption in the whole society. In an aspect of the invention, a method for predicting the influence of trade disputes on total electricity consumption is provided and includes: acquiring a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of an electricity consumption increment for a sub-sector through a pre-constructed Global Trade Analysis Project model according to known policies on additional tariffs; acquiring a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption for three industries according to known electricity consumption for the sub-sector, electricity consumption per increment, and the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of the electricity consumption increment for the sub-sector, where the three industries include a primary industry, a secondary industry and a tertiary industry; acquiring an annual average natural growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living according to history data, and acquiring a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living according to the annual average natural growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living and known actual electricity consumption for residential living; and predicting a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of total electricity consumption according to the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for three industries and the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living. In an embodiment, acquiring the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of the electricity consumption increment for the sub-sector through the pre-constructed Global Trade Analysis Project model according to known policies on additional tariffs specifically includes: taking a known tariff rate as an exogenous variable of the Global Trade Analysis Project model; and setting the policies on additional tariffs in the Global Trade Analysis Project model to obtain the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of the electricity consumption increment for the sub-sector. In an embodiment, acquiring the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for three industries according to known electricity consumption for the sub-sector, electricity consumption per increment, and the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of the electricity consumption increment for the sub-sector includes: acquiring a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption for the sub-sector according to the electricity consumption for the sub-sector, the electricity consumption per increment, and the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of the electricity consumption increment for the sub-sector; acquiring an electricity consumption decrement for the sub-sector according to the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for the sub-sector and electricity consumption for the sub-sector in the previous year; acquiring electricity consumption decrements for the three industries according to the electricity consumption decrement for the sub-sector; and acquiring the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption for the three industries according to the electricity consumption decrement for the three industries and known electricity consumption for the three industries in the previous year. In an embodiment, predicting a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of total electricity consumption according to the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption for the three industries and the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living includes: acquiring a total electricity consumption decrement according to the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption for the three industries and the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living; and calculating the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of total electricity consumption according to the total electricity consumption decrement and total electricity consumption in the previous year. In another aspect of the invention, an apparatus for predicting the influence of trade disputes on total electricity consumption is further provided and includes: a first influence-percentage acquisition unit for acquiring a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of an electricity consumption increment for a sub-sector through a pre-constructed Global Trade Analysis Project model according to known policies on additional tariffs; a second influence-percentage acquisition unit for acquiring a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption for three industries according to known electricity consumption for the sub-sector, electricity consumption per increment, and the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of the electricity consumption increment for the sub-sector, where the three industries include a primary industry, a secondary industry and a tertiary industry; an influence-percentage acquisition unit directed to electricity consumption for residential living, used for acquiring an annual average natural growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living according to history data, and acquiring a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living according to the annual average natural growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living and known actual electricity consumption for residential living; and an influence-percentage acquisition unit directed to total electricity consumption, used for predicting a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of total electricity consumption according to the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for three industries and the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living. In an embodiment, the first influence-percentage acquisition unit specifically includes: an exogenous variable setting module for taking a known tariff rate as an exogenous variable of the Global Trade Analysis Project model; and a first calculation module for setting the policies on additional tariffs in the Global Trade Analysis Project model to obtain the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of the electricity consumption increment for the sub-sector. In an embodiment, the second influence-percentage acquisition unit includes: an influence-percentage calculation module directed to a growth rate for the sub-sector, used for acquiring a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption for the sub-sector according to the electricity consumption for the sub-sector, the electricity consumption per increment, and the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of the electricity consumption increment for the sub-sector; an electricity consumption decrement calculation module directed to the sub-sector, used for acquiring an electricity consumption decrement for the sub-sector according to the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for the sub-sector and electricity consumption for the sub-sector in the previous year; an electricity consumption decrement calculation module directed to the three industries, used for acquiring electricity consumption decrements for the three industries according to the electricity consumption decrement for the sub-sector; and a second calculation module for acquiring the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption for the three industries according to the electricity consumption decrement for the three industries and known electricity consumption for the three industries in the previous year. In an embodiment, the influence-percentage acquisition unit directed to total electricity consumption includes: a total electricity consumption decrement calculation module for acquiring a total electricity consumption decrement according to the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption for the three industries and the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living; and a third calculation module for calculating the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of total electricity consumption according to the total electricity consumption decrement and total electricity consumption in the previous year. According to the invention, the influence of international trade disputes on electricity consumption of a sub-sector and three industries is considered, and then the influence of the international trade disputes on the electricity consumption for residential living is calculated through an econometric model, so that the technical effect of predicting the influence of the international trade disputes on the electricity consumption in the whole society is realized.

Brief Description of the Drawings In order that technical solutions in the detailed description of the invention or the prior art may be more clearly understood, a brief description will now be made about the accompanying drawings required for the description of embodiments and the prior art. Apparently, the drawings described below illustrate some embodiments of the invention, and it's readily understood by those skilled in the art that on such a basis, other drawings may be obtained without involving inventive efforts. Fig. 1 is a flow chart of a method for predicting the influence of trade disputes on total electricity consumption provided by the present application. Fig. 2 is a flow chart of acquiring a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of an electricity consumption increment for a sub-sector according to an embodiment of the present application. Fig. 3 is a flow chart of acquiring a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption for three industries according to an embodiment of the present application. Fig. 4 is a flow chart of predicting a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of total electricity consumption according to an embodiment of the present application. Fig. 5 is a block diagram of a structure of an apparatus for predicting the influence of trade disputes on total electricity consumption provided by the present application. Fig. 6 is a block diagram of a structure of a first influence-percentage acquisition unit according to an embodiment of the present application. Fig. 7 is a block diagram of a structure of a second influence-percentage acquisition unit according to an embodiment of the present application. Fig. 8 is a block diagram of a structure of an influence-percentage acquisition unit directed to total electricity consumption according to an embodiment of the present application. Fig. 9 shows an implementation of an electronic device according to an embodiment of the present application.

Detailed Description of the Invention The technical solution of the present invention will now be described more fully and clearly hereinafter with reference to embodiments, it is apparent that the described embodiments are only a few, but not all embodiments of the invention. On the basis of the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by a person of ordinary skill in the art without involving any inventive effort are within the scope of the present invention. It is to be understood in the description of the invention that orientations or positional relationships indicated by the terms such as "center", "longitudinal", "lateral", "length", "width", "thickness", "upper", "lower", "front", "rear", "left", "right", "vertical", "horizontal", "top", "bottom", "inner", "outer", "clockwise" and "counterclockwise" are based on the accompanying drawings, intended merely to facilitate describing the invention, and not to indicate or imply that the device or element referred to must have a particular orientation, be constructed and operated in a particular orientation, and thus should not be construed as limiting the invention. Furthermore, the terms "first" and "second" are used for descriptive purposes only and are not to be construed as indicating or implying relative importance or implicitly indicating the number of technical features referred to. As such, features defined by "first" and "second" may explicitly or implicitly include one or more of the described features. In the description of the invention, "plurality" means two or more unless specifically defined otherwise. Furthermore, the terms "mounted", "connected", and "coupled" are to be construed broadly, for example, being connected may be fixedly, removably or integrally connected, and may be mechanically or electrically connected; being coupled may be coupled directly, or indirectly through an intermediary, and may be internal communication between two elements. It will be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that the specific meanings of the above terms in the present invention may be understood according to circumstances. The influence of international trade disputes on electricity demand is introduced in detail in the background art, and to address the uncertainty of the international trade disputes, the present application provides a method for predicting the influence of trade disputes on total electricity consumption, as shown in Fig. 1, including the following steps: S101: a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of an electricity consumption increment for a sub-sector is acquired through a pre-constructed Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model according to known policies on additional tariffs. Firstly, the GTAP model (this step is in the prior art) is established, and the policies on additional tariffs are set in the model, to calculate the influence of international trade disputes on the growth rate of the electricity consumption increment for the sub-sector. S102: a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption for three industries is acquired according to known electricity consumption for the sub-sector, electricity consumption per increment, and the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of the electricity consumption increment for the sub-sector, where the three industries include a primary industry, a secondary industry and a tertiary industry. After the influence of international trade disputes on the growth of the electricity consumption increment for the sub-sector is calculated, in conjunction with the change of electricity consumption per increment for the sub-sector, the influence of international trade disputes on electricity consumption for three sub-sectors and the three industries is calculated. S103: an annual average natural growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living is acquired according to history data, and a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living is acquired according to the annual average natural growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living and known actual electricity consumption for residential living. An econometric model is used to calculate the influence of international trade disputes on electricity consumption for residential living. S104: a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of total electricity consumption is predicted according to the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for three industries and the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living. Through comprehensive consideration of the influence of international trade disputes on electricity consumption for residential living and the influence of international trade disputes on electricity consumption for the three industries, the influence of international trade disputes on total electricity consumption in the whole society of China can be predicted. The implementer of the method shown in Fig. 1 can be a PC, a terminal and the like, the influence of international trade disputes on the electricity consumption for a sub-sector and the three industries in China is calculated according to the change of the electricity consumption per increment for the sub-sector, and then the influence of international trade disputes on the electricity consumption for residential living is calculated, to obtain the influence of the international trade disputes on total electricity consumption in the whole society, which renders a more accurate command of the changing trend of the electricity consumption favorable for better mapping out a macroscopic trend for electricity engineering technologies, and realizes reasonable use of electricity resources. In an embodiment, as shown in Fig. 2, acquiring the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of the electricity consumption increment for the sub-sector through the pre-constructed Global Trade Analysis Project model according to known policies on additional tariffs specifically includes: S201: taking a known tariff rate as an exogenous variable of the Global Trade Analysis Project model; and S202: setting the policies on additional tariffs in the Global Trade Analysis Project model to obtain the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of the electricity consumption increment for the sub-sector. In an embodiment, sub-models describing production, consumption, government expenditure and other acts in China are established in the GTAP model, and all the sub-models are connected to form a multi-country and multi-department general equilibrium model according to international commodity trade relations. Then the tariff rate is taken as the exogenous variable of the model, the policies on additional tariffs in the i-th year are set, to calculate the percentage / of the influence of international trade disputes on the growth rate of the electricity consumption increment for the sub-sectorjin China. For example, through calculations with the model, in 2018, the percentages of the influence of international trade disputes on the growth rate of the electricity consumption increment for the three industrial are 0.5%, -0.5%, -0.2%, respectively, and the percentage of the influence of international trade disputes on the growth rate of GDP is 0.2%; in 2019, the percentages of the influence of international trade disputes on the growth rate of the electricity consumption increment for the three industrial are 0.5%, -0.9%, -0.3%, respectively, and the percentage of the influence of international trade disputes on the growth rate of GDP is 0.5% In an embodiment, as shown in Fig. 3, acquiring the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for three industries according to known electricity consumption for the sub-sector, electricity consumption per increment, and the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of the electricity consumption increment for the sub-sector includes the following steps: S301: a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption for the sub-sector is acquired according to the electricity consumption for the sub-sector, the electricity consumption per increment, and the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of the electricity consumption increment for the sub-sector. In an embodiment, the percentage of the influence of international trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for the sub-sector is calculated. The electricity consumption of the i-th sub-sectorj is EU, the electricity consumption per increment is zU, the previous year is the i- -th year, and the percentage of the influence of international trade disputes on a growth rate of

9.. the sub-sector is v .

z..=z'

S302: an electricity consumption decrement for the sub-sector is acquired according to the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for the sub-sector and electricity consumption for the sub-sector in the previous year.

0.. In an embodiment, based on 9 obtained from S301, it can be known that electricity

consumption has a decrement YY due to the influence of international trade disputes on the sub-sector, which is as follows:

7u VQ-1j Y (1.2)

S303: electricity consumption decrements for the three industries are acquired according to the electricity consumption decrement for the sub-sector. In an embodiment, the electricity consumption decrement caused by international trade disputes for the three industries is calculated. If the primary industry includes 1 sub-sector, the secondary industry includes m sub-sectors, and the tertiary industry includes n sub-sectors, then the electricity consumption decrements due to international trade disputes for the three industries in

7 thei-thyearare 70, 7,2, i, respectively.

ril y' I 'i2X y' ir3=Xry j=1 j=1 j=1 (1.3) S 304: the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption for the three industries is acquired according to the electricity consumption decrement for the three industries and known electricity consumption for the three industries in the previous year. In an embodiment, the percentages of the influence of international trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for the three industries are calculated. Assuming the electricity

consumption of the three industries in the i-1-th year is -, Y- Y-, respectively,

and the percentages of the influence of international trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity

consumption for the three industries are Oil, p12 , Oj3, respectively, which are as follows:

Y(u-1)1 (1.4)

12 i2 Y(l-1)2 (1.5)

Y(l-1)3 (1.6)

For example, in 2018, the percentages of the influence of international trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for the three industries are 1.1%, -0.5%, -0.3%, respectively; in 2019, the percentages of the influence of international trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for the three industries are 1.1%, -1.1%, -0.3%, respectively. It can be seen that the numerical relationship between the growth rates of electricity consumption in 2019 and 2018 is consistent with the above-mentioned pattern.

In an embodiment, as shown in Fig. 4, predicting a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of total electricity consumption according to the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption for the three industries and the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living includes the following steps: S401: a total electricity consumption decrement is acquired according to the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption for the three industries and the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living. In an embodiment, the process for calculating the influence of international trade disputes on electricity consumption for residential living includes: step 1: screening out years in the past which are not influenced by international trade disputes, and calculating an annual average growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living v4 in these years; step 2: considering the natural growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living (i.e., v4), calculating the level of electricity consumption for residential living in the i-th year without the influence of international trade disputes, and calculating a difference between the level of electricity consumption for residential living in the i-th year and the actual electricity consumption for residential living in the i-th year, to obtain the electricity consumption decrement for

residential living in the i-th year due to international trade disputes 7I4;

where 7i4 -i4~(i-04V 4 (1.7), and step 3: calculating the percentage of influence of international trade dispute on the growth rate of

electricity consumption for residential living 014

9i4- Yi4

Y(-1)4 (1.8)

An example is provided to prove the above theory. In 2018, the percentage of the influence of international trade disputes on the growth of electricity consumption for residential living is 0.02%; in 2019, the percentage of the influence of international trade disputes on the growth of electricity consumption for residential living is 0.03%, consistent with the above equations. The total electricity consumption in the whole society of China mainly includes electricity consumption for the three industries and residential living, so the influence of trade disputes on total electricity consumption in the whole society of China can be evaluated by calculating the electricity consumption for the three industries and residential living.

S402: the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of total electricity consumption is calculated according to the total electricity consumption decrement and total electricity consumption in the previous year. In an embodiment, the calculation of the influence of international trade disputes on total electricity consumption in the whole society of China includes: step 1: calculating total electricity consumption in the whole society of China caused by

international trade disputes 7,

7 7 7 where 2 +Yr2 + j 3+ (1.9); and

step 2: calculating the percentage of the influence of international trade disputes on the growth

rate of total electricity consumption in the whole society of China

, where Y(i 1 ) (1.10).

An example is provided to prove the above theory. In 2018, the percentage of the influence of international trade disputes on the growth rate of total electricity consumption in the whole society of China is 0.4%; in 2019, the percentage of the influence of international trade disputes on the growth rate of total electricity consumption in the whole society of China is 0.8%, consistent with the above equations. On the basis of the same inventive concept, as described below, embodiments of the present application also provide an apparatus for predicting the influence of trade disputes on total electricity consumption, which may be used to implement the method described in the above embodiments. Because the apparatus for predicting the influence of trade disputes on total electricity consumption has a similar mechanism with the method for predicting the influence of trade disputes on total electricity consumption, the implementation of the apparatus can be learned with reference to the implementation of the method, and will not be repeated. As used below, the terms "unit" or "module" may realize a combination of software and/or hardware for a predetermined function. Although the system described in the embodiments below is preferably implemented in software, implementations in hardware, or in a combination of software and hardware, are also possible and contemplated. An apparatus for predicting the influence of trade disputes on total electricity consumption is shown in Fig. 5, including: a first influence-percentage acquisition unit 501 for acquiring a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of an electricity consumption increment for a sub-sector through a pre-constructed Global Trade Analysis Project model according to known policies on additional tariffs; a second influence-percentage acquisition unit 502 for acquiring a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption for three industries according to known electricity consumption for the sub-sector, electricity consumption per increment, and the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of the electricity consumption increment for the sub-sector, where the three industries include a primary industry, a secondary industry and a tertiary industry; an influence-percentage acquisition unit directed to electricity consumption for residential living 503, used for acquiring an annual average natural growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living according to history data, and acquiring a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living according to the annual average natural growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living and known actual electricity consumption for residential living; and an influence-percentage acquisition unit directed to total electricity consumption 504, used for predicting a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of total electricity consumption according to the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for three industries and the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living. In an embodiment, as shown in Fig. 6, thefirst influence-percentage acquisition unit 501 specifically includes: an exogenous variable setting module 601 for taking a known tariff rate as an exogenous variable of the Global Trade Analysis Project model; and a first calculation module 602 for setting the policies on additional tariffs in the Global Trade Analysis Project model to obtain the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of the electricity consumption increment for the sub-sector. In an embodiment, as shown in Fig. 7, the second influence-percentage acquisition unit 502 includes: an influence-percentage calculation module directed to a growth rate for the sub-sector 701, used for acquiring a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption for the sub-sector according to the electricity consumption for the sub-sector, the electricity consumption per increment, and the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of the electricity consumption increment for the sub-sector; an electricity consumption decrement calculation module directed to the sub-sector 702, used for acquiring an electricity consumption decrement for the sub-sector according to the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for the sub-sector and electricity consumption for the sub-sector in the previous year; an electricity consumption decrement calculation module directed to the three industries 703, used for acquiring electricity consumption decrements for the three industries according to the electricity consumption decrement for the sub-sector; and a second calculation module 704 for acquiring the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption for the three industries according to the electricity consumption decrement for the three industries and known electricity consumption for the three industries in the previous year. In an embodiment, as shown in Fig. 8, the influence-percentage acquisition unit directed to total electricity consumption 504 includes: a total electricity consumption decrement calculation module 801 for acquiring a total electricity consumption decrement according to the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption for the three industries and the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living; and a third calculation module 802 for calculating the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of total electricity consumption according to the total electricity consumption decrement and total electricity consumption in the previous year. International trade disputes will exist for a long time with strong uncertainty and complexity, and should be fully considered in formulating the fourteenth Five-Year Plan on electricity. Since 2018, the United States have adopted unilateral measures to provoke trade disputes against China, resulting in a certain influence on China's economy and electricity demand. At present, although China and the United States have reached an initial economic and trade agreement, trade disputes are likely to be stirred up again given that trade disputes are routine practices for the United States to suppress China's development. Therefore, the boundary conditions of the fourteenth Five-Year Plan should be adjusted dynamically according to the international trade dispute trend and the latest situation of its influence on the total amount and landscape of electricity demand. It's an object of the present application to calculate the influence of international trade disputes on the electricity consumption for residential living, sub-sectors and three industries, to obtain the influence of international trade disputes on the electricity consumption in the whole society of China, which is beneficial for studying the influence and trend of the international trade disputes on the economy and electricity demand level of China during the fourteenth Five-Year Plan period, and has a great significance for the government to formulate the fourteenth Five-Year Plan together with enterprises and to avoid external risks. The principles and implementation of the present invention have been described with reference to embodiments, which are presented solely to aid in the understanding of the methods and core concepts of the present invention; moreover, variations will occur to those skilled in the art in light of the teachings of the present invention, both in terms of its embodiments and its scope of application, and in summary, this specification should not be construed as limiting the invention. The embodiments of the present application further include an embodiment of an electronic device implementing all the steps of the method described in the above embodiments, as shown in Fig. 9, the electronic device specifically includes: a processor 901, a memory 902, a communications interface 903, a bus 904, and a non-volatile memory 905; wherein the processor 901, the memory 902 and the communications interface 903 communicate with each other through the bus 904; the processor 901 is used to call a computer program in the memory 902 and the non-volatile memory 905, and to implement all the steps of the method in the above embodiments when executing the computer program, for example, to implement the steps of: S101: acquiring a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of an electricity consumption increment for a sub-sector through a pre-constructed Global Trade Analysis Project model according to known policies on additional tariffs; S102: acquiring a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption for three industries according to known electricity consumption for the sub-sector, electricity consumption per increment, and the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of the electricity consumption increment for the sub-sector, where the three industries include a primary industry, a secondary industry and a tertiary industry; S103: acquiring an annual average natural growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living according to history data, and acquiring a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living according to the annual average natural growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living and known actual electricity consumption for residential living; and S104: predicting a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of total electricity consumption according to the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for three industries and the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living. The embodiments of the present application further provide a computer-readable storage medium implementing all the steps of the method described in the above embodiments, the computer-readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program that, when executed by the processor, implements all the steps of the method described in the above embodiments, for example, implements the steps of: S101: acquiring a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of an electricity consumption increment for a sub-sector through a pre-constructed Global Trade Analysis Project model according to known policies on additional tariffs; S102: acquiring a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption for three industries according to known electricity consumption for the sub-sector, electricity consumption per increment, and the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of the electricity consumption increment for the sub-sector, where the three industries include a primary industry, a secondary industry and a tertiary industry; S103: acquiring an annual average natural growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living according to history data, and acquiring a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living according to the annual average natural growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living and known actual electricity consumption for residential living; and S104: predicting a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of total electricity consumption according to the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for three industries and the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living. Embodiments in this specification are described in a progressive manner, with like parts having reference with respect to each other, and with emphasis on differences from the other embodiments. In particular, a "hardware plus program" embodiment is described in a simpler manner since it is substantially similar to a method embodiment, with similarities referred to the partial description of the method embodiment. Although embodiments of the specification provide steps of the method as described in the embodiments or flowcharts, more or fewer steps may be included based on conventional or non-inventive means. The order of steps recited in the embodiments is merely one example in which several steps are performed and does not represent the only order of performance. When the steps are performed by an actual device or terminal product, they may be executed sequentially or in parallel (e.g., in a parallel processor or multi-threaded processing environment, or even in a distributed data processing environment) in accordance with the method illustrated in the embodiments or drawings. The terms "comprise", "include", or any other variation thereof, are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, method, article, or device that includes a list of elements does not include only those elements but may include other elements not expressly listed or inherent to such process, method, article, or device. Without further limitation, the presence of additional identical or equivalent elements in a process, method, article, or device that includes the recited elements is not excluded. For convenience of description, the above device is described with functionally being divided into various modules. Apparently, the functions of the various modules may be implemented in one or multiple software and/or hardware when implementing the embodiments of the specification, or the modules implementing the same functions may be implemented in the form of a combination of multiple sub-modules or sub-units, etc. The device embodiments described above are merely illustrative, for example, the division of units is merely a division of logical functions, and further divisions are possible in practical implementations; for another example, a plurality of units or components may be combined or integrated into another system, or some features may be omitted or not implemented. Alternatively, the couplings, direct couplings or communicative connections shown or discussed with respect to one another may be indirect couplings or communicative connections through some interface, device or unit, and may be electrical, mechanical or otherwise. The present invention is described with reference to flowcharts and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the present invention. It is to be understood that each flow and/or block of the flowcharts and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flowcharts and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing devices to produce a machine, such that the instructions, when executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing devices, produce means for implementing the functions specified in one or more flows of the flowchart and/or one or more blocks of the block diagram. Those skilled in the art will appreciate that embodiments of the specification may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Thus, embodiments of the specification may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Moreover, embodiments of the specification may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, magnetic disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) having computer-usable program code embodied therein. Embodiments in this specification are described in a progressive manner, with like parts having reference with respect to each other, and with emphasis on differences from the other embodiments. In particular, a "hardware plus program" embodiment is described in a simpler manner since it is substantially similar to a method embodiment, with similarities referred to the partial description of the method embodiment. In the specification, description with reference to the terms such as "an embodiment" and "a specific embodiment" means that a particular feature, structure, material, or characteristic described in connection with the embodiment or example is included in at least one embodiment or example of the embodiments of the specification. In this specification, schematic representations of the above terms are not necessarily directed to the same embodiment or example. Moreover, various embodiments or examples described in this specification, as well as features of various embodiments or examples, may be combined by those skilled in the art without conflicts. The above description is merely exemplary of the embodiments of the present disclosure and is not intended to limit the embodiments of the present disclosure. Various modifications and variations of the embodiments described herein will occur to those skilled in the art. Any modifications, equivalents, improvements and the like that come within the spirit and principles of the embodiments described herein are intended to be included within the scope of the claims appended herein.

Claims

1. A method for predicting the influence of trade disputes on total electricity consumption, characterized by comprising: acquiring a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of an electricity consumption increment for a sub-sector through a pre-constructed Global Trade Analysis Project model according to known policies on additional tariffs; acquiring a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption for three industries according to known electricity consumption for the sub-sector, electricity consumption per increment, and the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of the electricity consumption increment for the sub-sector, where the three industries include a primary industry, a secondary industry and a tertiary industry; acquiring an annual average natural growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living according to history data, and acquiring a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living according to the annual average natural growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living and known actual electricity consumption for residential living; and predicting a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of total electricity consumption according to the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for three industries and the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living, to be applied to electricity engineering technologies.

2. The method for predicting the influence of trade disputes on total electricity consumption according to claim 1, characterized in that acquiring the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of the electricity consumption increment for the sub-sector through the pre-constructed Global Trade Analysis Project model according to known policies on additional tariffs specifically comprises: taking a known tariff rate as an exogenous variable of the Global Trade Analysis Project model;

and setting the policies on additional tariffs in the Global Trade Analysis Project model to obtain the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of the electricity consumption increment for the sub-sector.

3. The method for predicting the influence of trade disputes on total electricity consumption according to claim 1, characterized in that acquiring the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for three industries according to known electricity consumption for the sub-sector, electricity consumption per increment, and the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of the electricity consumption increment for the sub-sector comprises: acquiring a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption for the sub-sector according to the electricity consumption for the sub-sector, the electricity consumption per increment, and the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of the electricity consumption increment for the sub-sector; acquiring an electricity consumption decrement for the sub-sector according to the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for the sub-sector and electricity consumption for the sub-sector in the previous year; acquiring electricity consumption decrements for the three industries according to the electricity consumption decrement for the sub-sector; and acquiring the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption for the three industries according to the electricity consumption decrement for the three industries and known electricity consumption for the three industries in the previous year.

4. The method for predicting the influence of trade disputes on total electricity consumption according to claim 1, characterized in that predicting a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of total electricity consumption according to the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption for the three industries and the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living comprises: acquiring a total electricity consumption decrement according to the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption for the three industries and the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living; and calculating the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of total electricity consumption according to the total electricity consumption decrement and total electricity consumption in the previous year.

5. An apparatus for predicting the influence of trade disputes on total electricity consumption, characterized by comprising: a first influence-percentage acquisition unit for acquiring a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of an electricity consumption increment for a sub-sector through a pre-constructed Global Trade Analysis Project model according to known policies on additional tariffs; a second influence-percentage acquisition unit for acquiring a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption for three industries according to known electricity consumption for the sub-sector, electricity consumption per increment, and the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of the electricity consumption increment for the sub-sector, where the three industries include a primary industry, a secondary industry and a tertiary industry; an influence-percentage acquisition unit directed to electricity consumption for residential living, used for acquiring an annual average natural growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living according to history data, and acquiring a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living according to the annual average natural growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living and known actual electricity consumption for residential living; and an influence-percentage acquisition unit directed to total electricity consumption, used for predicting a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of total electricity consumption according to the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for three industries and the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living.

6. The apparatus for predicting the influence of trade disputes on total electricity consumption according to claim 5, characterized in that the first influence-percentage acquisition unit specifically comprises: an exogenous variable setting module for taking a known tariff rate as an exogenous variable of the Global Trade Analysis Project model; and a first calculation module for setting the policies on additional tariffs in the Global Trade Analysis Project model to obtain the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of the electricity consumption increment for the sub-sector.

7. The apparatus for predicting the influence of trade disputes on total electricity consumption according to claim 5, characterized in that the second influence-percentage acquisition unit comprises: an influence-percentage calculation module directed to a growth rate for the sub-sector, used for acquiring a percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption for the sub-sector according to the electricity consumption for the sub-sector, the electricity consumption per increment, and the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of the electricity consumption increment for the sub-sector; an electricity consumption decrement calculation module directed to the sub-sector, used for acquiring an electricity consumption decrement for the sub-sector according to the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for the sub-sector and electricity consumption for the sub-sector in the previous year; an electricity consumption decrement calculation module directed to the three industries, used for acquiring electricity consumption decrements for the three industries according to the electricity consumption decrement for the sub-sector; and a second calculation module for acquiring the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption for the three industries according to the electricity consumption decrement for the three industries and known electricity consumption for the three industries in the previous year.

8. The apparatus for predicting the influence of trade disputes on total electricity consumption according to claim 5, characterized in that the influence-percentage acquisition unit directed to total electricity consumption comprises: a total electricity consumption decrement calculation module for acquiring a total electricity consumption decrement according to the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on a growth rate of electricity consumption for the three industries and the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of electricity consumption for residential living; and a third calculation module for calculating the percentage of the influence of trade disputes on the growth rate of total electricity consumption according to the total electricity consumption decrement and total electricity consumption in the previous year.

9. An electronic device comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, characterized in that the processor, when executing the program, implements the method for predicting the influence of trade disputes on total electricity consumption according to any one of claims 1 to 4.

10. A computer-readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program, characterized in that the computer program, when executed by a processor, implements the method for predicting the influence of trade disputes on total electricity consumption according to any one of claims 1 to 4.