AU2003283069B2 - An apparatus and method for determining a level of confidence in a risk assessment and/or determining a level of acceptability of an event occuring - Google Patents

Description

AN APPARATUS AND METHOD FOR DETERMINING A LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE IN A RISK ASSESSMENT AND/OR DETERMINING A LEVEL OF ACCEPTABILITY OF AN EVENT OCCURING 5 RELATED APPLICATION This application is based on and claims the benefit of the filing date of Australian application no. 2002952784 filed 20 November 2002, the content of which as filed is 10 incorporated herein by reference in its entirety. FIELD OF THE INVENTION The present invention relates to an apparatus and method 15 for assisting a user in determining a level of confidence in a risk assessment and/or assisting the user in determining a level of acceptability of an event occurring. 20 BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION Risk is something which we all encounter in our everyday lives. For example, we risk being involved in an accident whenever we travel in a motor vehicle. Generally speaking, 25 risk can be defined as the likelihood of some event occurring by the impact or consequences of that event; that is, risk = likelihood * impact. A great deal of research has been undertaken in order to 30 develop techniques for determining risk. Some of the more common techniques include: statistical analysis; forward simulations; mathematical modelling; and judgement or guessing. The problem with existing techniques for determining risk is that they do not take into account the 35 validity of the information or process used to derive the risk. For example, where risk is determined using statistical analysis (of sampled data) the validity of the 2421752_1 (GHMatters) - 2 risk calculation (that is, the level of confidence a person can have in the risk calculation) will depend to some degree on the number of data samples used in the statistical analysis. Where only a few samples are taken 5 the validity of the risk would be lower than if the risk were derived using a large number of samples. Unfortunately, existing methods do not provide any indication as to the validity of a risk calculation. 10 Consequently, a person using the risk calculation is unable to determine just how much confidence he/she can have in the calculated risk. This can be detrimental if, for example, a person has too much confidence in a risk calculation which is based on statistical analysis using 15 only a few data samples (a low validity). Existing techniques for determining risk assessment also do not give any indication as to the level of acceptability of the event occurring. 20 SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION According to a first aspect of the present invention there is provided an apparatus configured for assisting a user 25 in determining a level of acceptability of an event occurring, the apparatus comprising: an input for receiving a likelihood value which represents a likelihood that the event will occur, and a confidence value which represents a level of confidence 30 that the user has in the likelihood value; a storage for storing a plurality of records, a range of likelihood values, and a range of confidence values; an indicator assignor to assign a representative 35 indicator to each of the plurality of records, each respective indicator representing a level of acceptability of the event occurring; 2421752_1 (GHMatters) - 3 an identifier configured for identifying one of the records in the storage, the one of the records being identified by processing the likelihood value and the confidence value received by the input means, and each of 5 the records stored in the storage; and an output configured for outputting the assigned indicator of the one of the record identified by the identifying. 10 Thus, the information output by the output can assist the user in determining the level of acceptance in the risk assessment. In one embodiment, for a subsequent input of a confidence 15 value and a likelihood value of an event where a level of acceptability is to be determined, the identifier is configured to find a match of one or more stored records where the confidence values embrace the confidence value of the subsequent input, and to then from stored records 20 of such match find a match of a single record where the likelihood values embrace the likelihood value of the subsequent input, and outputting the assigned indicator for a matched single record, or if the likelihood values do not embrace the likelihood value of the subsequent 25 input, then a single stored record is identified where the likelihood value of the subsequent input is numerically closest to the likelihood values, and outputting the assigned indicator for that identified single record. 30 In an embodiment, the respective indicator in each of the records is a respective visual indicator each being a different colour or symbol. In a certain embodiment, the range of likelihood values in 35 each of the records comprises a range of probability values. 2421752_1 (GHMatters) The range of confidence values in each of the records may comprise a range of integers. The input means may be configured to allow the user to 5 enter and/or change the range of likelihood values and/or range of confidence values in each of the records. In a certain embodiment, the input comprises a graphical user interface. 10 The storage may comprise a computer storage medium. In one embodiment, the computer storage medium comprises a database. 15 The identifier may comprise a suitably configured computer. The output may comprise a graphical user interface. 20 According to a second aspect of the present invention there is provided a method for assisting a user in determining a level of acceptability of an event occurring, the method comprising: 25 receiving a likelihood value which represents a likelihood that the event will occur, and a confidence value which represents a level of confidence that the user has in the likelihood value; storing a plurality of records each of which 30 includes an indicator representing a level of acceptability of the event occurring, a range of likelihood values, and a range of confidence values; identifying one of the records stored by the storing step, the one of the records being identified by 35 processing the likelihood value and the confidence value received by the receiving step, and each of the records stored by the storing step; and 2421752_1 (GHMatters) - 5 outputting the indicator of said one of the records so identified. In one embodiment, for a subsequent input of a confidence 5 value and a likelihood value of an event where a level of acceptability is to be determined, using said identifier to find a match of one or more stored records where the confidence values embrace the confidence value of the subsequent input, and to then from stored records of such 10 match find a match of a single record where the likelihood values embrace the likelihood value of the subsequent input, and outputting the assigned indicator for a matched single record, or if the likelihood values do not embrace the likelihood value of the subsequent input, then 15 identifying a single stored record where the likelihood value of the subsequent input is numerically closest to the likelihood values, and outputting the assigned indicator for that identified single record. 20 The method may further comprise the step of entering and/or changing the range of likelihood values and/or range of confidence values in each of the records. According to a third aspect of the present invention there 25 is provided an apparatus for determining a level of confidence in a risk assessment, the apparatus comprising: obtaining means operable to obtain a weighting that is associated with at least one of a plurality of factors that can influence a reliability of the risk 30 assessment; and comparing means operable to compare the weighting to a range of weightings which are associated with the factors in order to determine the level of confidence in the risk assessment; 35 wherein the obtaining means is such that it uses the at least one of the factors to retrieve the weighting from a record of the weightings and is operable to 2421752_1 (GHMatlers) - 6 retrieve the weighting from the record by using a first index and a second index to retrieve the weighting from the record, wherein the first index corresponds to a first of the at least one of the factors, and the second index 5 corresponds to a second and a third of the at least one of the factors; and wherein the first of the at least one of the factors relates to an environmental parameter associated with the risk assessment, the second of the at least one 10 of the factors relates to an amount of work performed to determine the risk assessment, and the third of the at least one of the factors relates to a level of acceptance associated with the amount of work performed and a technique used to perform the work. 15 The record may comprise a matrix that contains an entry for each of the weightings, and the first index and the second index correspond to an x, y coordinate for the entry. 20 According to a fourth aspect of the present invention there is provided a method of determining a level of confidence in a risk assessment, the method comprising the steps of: 25 obtaining a weighting that is associated with at least one of a plurality of factors that can influence a reliability of the risk assessment; and comparing the weighting to a range of weightings which are associated with the factors in order to 30 determine the level of confidence in the risk assessment; wherein the step of obtaining the weighting comprises using the at least one of the factors to retrieve the weighting from a record of the weightings; wherein the step of using the at least one of the 35 factors to retrieve the weighting comprises the step of using a first index and a second index to retrieve the weighting from the record, wherein the first index 2421752_1 (GHMaters) -7 corresponds to a first of the at least one of the factors, and the second index corresponds to a second and a third of the at least one of the factors; and wherein the first of the at least one of the 5 factors relates to an environmental parameter associated with the risk assessment, the second of the at least one of the factors relates to an amount of work performed to determine the risk assessment, and the third of the at least one of the factors relates to a level of acceptance 10 associated with the amount of work performed and a technique used to perform the work. The record may comprise a matrix that contains an entry for each of the weightings, and the first index and the 15 second index correspond to an x, y coordinate for the entry. According to a fifth aspect of the present invention there is provided an apparatus for assisting a user in 20 determining the level of confidence in a risk assessment, the apparatus comprising: input means for receiving multiple factors upon which a risk is to be assessed; storage means for storing the factors, and a set 25 of weighting indicators therefor; said multiple factors being: first factors which rate the environment context of the risk assessment; second factors based on the extent of work performed to derive the risk assessment; 30 third factors which rate a level of acceptance of the extent of the work performed to derive the risk assessment; processing means for: processing the second and third factors to 35 identify each possible combination of the second and third factors; processing each identified combination of 2421752_1 (GHMattes) -8 second and third factors, with first factors, to identify each possible combination of second and third factors, with first factors; processing each possible combination of 5 second and third factors, with first factors, to establish a weighting index for each possible combination of second and third factors, with first factors, each weighting index representing a level of confidence in a risk assessment; and 10 output means for outputting a spread range of the set of weighting indexes, and the particular risk assessment corresponding to a combination of the factors used to establish the weighting index, whereby a confidence in the risk assessment is determinable by the 15 relative position of the weighting index in the spread range of the indexes outputted. In one embodiment, the established weighting indexes are be entries in a matrix of the possible combination of 20 second and third factors, with first factors, and wherein second and third factors and first factors provide an index to the matrix. The index to the entries in the matrix may be divided into 25 sub-factors. The sub-factors for the first factors may be selected from: simple; low moderate; moderate; high moderate; and complex. 30 In one embodiment, the input means allows a user to enter and/or change the factors and the weighting indicators. The input means may allow the user to specify the spread 35 range of the set of the weighting indexes. The sub-factors for the second factors may be selected 2421752_1 (GHMatters) - 9 from: basic; moderate; and extensive. The input means may allow a user to enter and/or change the factors and the weighting indicators. 5 The input means may allows the user to specify the spread range of the set of the weighting indexes. The sub-factors for the third factors may be selected 10 from: a single view; a small group; a large group; and widely accepted. In one embodiment, the input means allows the user to specify the spread range of the set of the weighting 15 indexes. According to a sixth aspect of the present invention there is provided a method of assisting a user in determining a level of confidence in a risk assessment, comprising: 20 entering into input means multiple factors upon which a risk is to be accessed; storing the factors and a set of weighting indicators therefore; said multiple factors being: first factors which 25 rate the environment context of the risk assessment; second factors which are based on the extent of work performed to derive the risk assessment; third factors which rate the level of acceptance of the extent of the work performed to derive the risk 30 assessment; processing said second and third factors and identifying each possible combination of said second and third factors; identifying each possible combination of said 35 second and third factors with said first factors; establishing a weighting index for each identified possible combination of second and third with 2421752_1 (GHMatters) - 10 first factors, wherein each weighting index represents a level of confidence in a risk assessment within the set of weighting indicators; and determining a level of confidence by selecting 5 factors which match a risk assessment, and noting the weighting index therefore and its relative position within the set of weighting indexes. In a particular embodiment, a matrix of entries is 10 established of the weighting indexes, and wherein second and third factors, and first factors provide an index to the matrix. The entries in the matrix may be divided into sub-factors. 15 The sub-factors for the first factors may be selected from: simple; low; moderate; high moderate; and complex. The sub-factors for the second factors may be selected 20 from: basic, moderate, and extensive. The sub-factors for the third factors may be selected from: a single view; a small group; a large group; and widely accepted. 25 In one embodiment, a user changes the factors, and/or the weighting indicators. In a particular embodiment, a user specifies a spread 30 range of the set of weighting indicators. 2421752_1 (GHMatters) WO 2004/046976 PCT/AU2003/001556 - 11 BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS Notwithstanding any other embodiments which may fall within the scope of the present invention, an embodiment 5 of the present invention will now be described, by way of example only, with reference to the accompanying figures, in which: Figure 1 illustrates an apparatus for assisting a 10 user in determining a level of confidence in a risk assessment according to the embodiment of the present invention; Figure 2 illustrates an apparatus for assisting a 15 user in determining the acceptability of an event occurring according to the embodiment of the present invention; Figure 3 illustrates a matrix stored in the storage 20 means shown in figure 1; Figure 4 shows a table mapping sub-factors forming the environment factor stored in the storage means illustrated in figure 1; 25 Figure 5 shows a matrix used to derive the indexes shown in the table of figure 4; and Figure 6 shows information stored in the storage 30 means illustrated in figure 2; and Figure 7 shows information related to factors that can be entered into the system of figure 1; and 35 Figures 8 to 11 shows several images of the graphical user interface displayed by the system of figure 1.

WO 2004/046976 PCT/AU2003/001556 - 12 AN EMBODIMENT OF THE INVENTION As can be seen in figure 1, the embodiment of the apparatus 1 for assisting a user in determining a level of 5 confidence in a risk assessment comprises: an input means 3; storage means 5; processing means 7; and output means 9. The apparatus 1 is in the form of a computer. The 10 input means 3 is in the form of software which when run on the apparatus 1 effects display of a graphical user interface (GUI) on a visual display of the apparatus 1. The graphical user interface of the input means 3 is arranged to allow the user to enter a set of factors, each 15 of which can effect a level of reliability in the risk assessment. The set of factors entered into the input means 3 comprises: information about the environment of the risk 20 assessment; information about the technique used to obtain the risk assessment; information about an extent to which the technique is used to obtain the risk assessment; and information about a level of acceptance of the technique and the extent to which the technique is used. 25 The information about the technique describes the technique employed to arrive at the risk assessment. For example, it describes the fact that the risk assessment was derived from either a personal assessment or by using 30 a more formal technique such as statistical analysis to obtain the risk assessment. With regard to the extent to which the technique is used to obtain the risk assessment, this describes, for example, the number of samples on which the technique of statistical analysis was applied. 35 The level of acceptance describes the number of people who accept the technique applied to the extent it is claimed to be applied. Finally, the information about the WO 2004/046976 PCT/AU2003/001556 - 13 environment describes the environment in which risk assessment is applicable. For instance, where the environment can be readily controlled (for example, a manufacturing environment) the environment is described as 5 being relatively simple. In contrast, where the environment relates to the share market, in which there are many variables that can not be controlled or easily predicted, the environment is described as being highly complex. 10 Thus, the input means 3 (which as mentioned previously, displays a graphical user interface) allows the user to enter, for example, the fact that the risk assessment was calculated using statistical analysis and 15 that the environment is highly complex The storage means 5 is in the form of a computer storage medium, and in particular is a database such as that available from Oracle. The storage means 5 stores a 20 record containing a plurality of factors that can influence the reliability of the risk assessment. The storage means 5 also stores a plurality of weightings that are associated with the factors stored in the storage means 5. Essentially, each of the plurality of weightings 25 represents a level of confidence in the risk assessment in relation to particular weightings. More specifically, the factors and weightings are arranged as a matrix 10 (see figure 3). The weightings in 30 the record are entries in the matrix 10, whilst the factors in the record act as an index 11 and 13 to the entries in the matrix 10. Each of the indexes 11 represent an environment in 35 which the risk assessment was made, and is divided into a number of different levels. The symbols le - 4e of the matrix 10 in figure 3 are a convenient means for WO 2004/046976 PCT/AU2003/001556 - 14 representing each of the different levels of the environment. The mapping of the symbols to the different levels of the environment is shown in figure 4. The indexes 13 of the matrix 10 in figure 3 are derived from 5 another matrix 14 which is shown in figure 5. The matrix 14 also has indexes 15 and 17, and entries which are the symbols (lb - 12b) used as the indexes 13 in the matrix 10 of figure 3. The indexes 15 represent the extent of work performed by the technique to derive the risk assessment. 10 As can be seen in figure 5, the extent of the work performed is divided into a number of different levels, which include: basic, moderate, and extensive. As an example, if statistical analysis is used to derive the risk assessment and only a small number of samples are 15 used, then the level of work performed is considered "basic". However, if a large number of samples were used then the level of work performed would be considered as "extensive". 20 The indexes 17 represent a level of acceptance of the technique and extent to which the technique is used to calculate the risk assessment. As can be seen in figure 5, the indexes 17 are divided into a number of different levels, which comprise: single view; small group 25 validation; large group validation; and widely accepted. Thus, by using the matrix 14 illustrated in figure 5 one can readily determine what the symbols 13 in figure 3 represent. For example, the symbol 6b in the matrix 10 of figure 3 represents that extensive work was performed in 30 obtaining the risk assessment, and that the technique employed to obtain the risk assessment is considered acceptable by a small group of people. The user of the apparatus 1 is required to enter into 35 the input means 3 the following factors: the environment; the level of acceptance of the technique and extent to which the technique is used to obtain the risk assessment, WO 2004/046976 PCT/AU2003/001556 - 15 and the extent of work performed by the technique. More specifically, the user would enter the level of the factors applicable to the risk assessment. For example, if the environment was complex, the user would enter 5 "complex" into the input means 3. A summary of the various levels of the factors entered into the input mean 3 is provided in figure 7. Once the level of the factors have been entered into 10 the input means 3, the processing means 7 proceeds to process the factors entered into the input means 3 and the matrix 10 in order to identify the indexes 11 and 13 which match the factors entered into the input means 3. For example, if the factors entered into the input means 3 15 where a "high-moderate" environment with "extensive" use of a technique which is accepted by a "large group", then the processing means 7 would identify the symbols "3e" and "9b". The symbol "3e" being derived from the table shown in figure 4, whilst the symbol "9b" is obtained from the 20 matrix 14 shown in figure 5. Once the processing means 7 has determined the appropriate symbols, it proceeds to identify the equivalent indexes 11 and 13 in the matrix 10 of figure 3. 25 It is noted that the processing means 7 is in the form of software that is executed by the apparatus 1. Once the processing means 7 has identified the appropriate indexes 11 and 13, the output means 9 proceeds 30 to retrieve the weighting which is located at the intersection of the index 11 and 13 which have been identified by the processing means 7. In the case of the example given in the above paragraph, the intersection of 3e and 9b is a weighting of "7". The retrieved weighting 35 factor along with the range of weighting factors in the matrix 10 (that is, 2 - 10) is then output by the output means 9. By outputting the weighting "7" and the range "2 WO 2004/046976 PCT/AU2003/001556 - 16 - 10" the user is able to put the weighting into context. In the case of the given example, one can see that "7" rates relatively highly of the range of "2 - 10". Thus, assuming 10 represents a high level of confidence in the 5 risk assessment and 2 represents a low level of confidence in the risk assessment, one can safely say that the weighting of "7" rates relatively highly on the range of "2 - 10". Consequently, a risk assessment of "7" means that the user can have a reasonable level of confidence in 10 the risk assessment. It is noted the output means 9 is in the form of software that runs on the apparatus 1, and which effects display of a graphical user interface on the visual 15 display of the apparatus 1. In the present embodiment, the matrix 14 and the table illustrated in figure 4 are defined by a user of the apparatus 1. The input means 3 allows the user to define 20 the matrix 14 and the table via the graphical user interface. Similarly, the entries in the matrix 10 are defined by the user via the graphical user interface of the input means 3. 25 In addition to assisting a user to determine a level of confidence in the risk assessment, the apparatus 1 also enables the user to determine a level of acceptability of an event occurring. In this regard, the apparatus 1 also comprises an identifying means 19. The input means 13 is 30 such that it enables the user to enter a likelihood value which represents a likelihood that the event will occur, and a confidence value which represents a level of confidence that the user has in the likelihood value. 35 The likelihood and confidence values entered into the input means 3 are in the form of a probability value (for example, 0.2 %) and integer value (for example 3), WO 2004/046976 PCT/AU2003/001556 - 17 respectively. The storage means 5 is such that it stores a plurality of records, each of which comprises an indicator 5 representing a level of acceptability of the event occurring. The record also comprises a range of likelihood values and a range of the confidence values. The indicators in the storage means 5 are visual 10 indicators, each of which is a different colour or symbol. Where, for example, the indicator represents a very low level of acceptability, the relative indicator is the colour red, whilst a high level of acceptability is represented by the colour green. Where an indicator 15 represents a medium level of acceptability, the indicator is orange in colour. The range of likelihood values in each record is essentially a different range of likelihood values. For 20 example, a first record can have the range of < 0.5%, a second record can have the range 0.5% - 1.05% and a third record can have the record > 1.05%. The range of confidence values are ranges of confidence values (which are integers), such as 8 - 10, 5 - 10 and 1 - 10. 25 Figure 6 provides a conceptual diagram of the records that are stored in the storage means 5. With reference to figure 6, the indicators are marked 21, the ranges of likelihood values are marked as 23 and the ranges of 30 confidence values are marked as 25. Once the likelihood value and confidence value have been received by the input means 3, the identify means 19 proceeds to process the received likelihood and confidence values and the ranges of likelihood values and the ranges of confidence values 35 in each of the records in order to identify one of the records. The identifying means 19 is in the form of software that runs on the apparatus 1.

WO 2004/046976 PCT/AU2003/001556 - 18 The range of confidence values of the record identified by the identifying means 19 comprises the confidence value received by the input means 3, and the 5 range of likelihood values of the record identified by the identifying means 19 either comprises the likelihood value received by the input means 3 or is numerically closer to the likelihood value received by the input means 3 than the range of likelihood values of any other of the 10 records. For example, where the input means 3 receives a likelihood value of 0.55% and a confidence value of 4, the identifying means 19 identifies the bottom record (of 15 figure 6); that is, the record having a likelihood range of > 1.05% and a confidence range of 1 - 10. After the identifying means 19 has identified a record, the output means 9, which is in the form of 20 software that effects a display of a graphical user interface on the monitor of the apparatus 1, retrieves the indicator from the identified record and displays it to the user via the graphical user interface. Thereby assisting the user is assessing the acceptability of the 25 risk assessment. The input means 3 is also configured to allow the user to enter and/or change the range of values and/or range of confidence values in the records. This is 30 provided for via the graphical user interface of the output means. The input means 3 also allow the number of indicators to be changed. With regard to figures 8 to 11, these figures 35 represent the graphical user interfaces that enables the user to enter information (e.g. factors) into the system 1, and display information to the user, (e.g. weightings).

- 19 Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the invention described herein is susceptible to variations and modifications other than those specifically described. It should be understood that the invention includes all 5 such variations and modifications which fall within the spirit and scope of the invention. In the claims that follow and in the preceding description of the invention, except where the context requires 10 otherwise owing to express language or necessary implication, the word "comprise" or variations such as "comprises" or "comprising" is used in an inclusive sense, that is, to specify the presence of the stated features but not to preclude the presence or addition of further 15 features in various embodiments of the invention. Further, any reference herein to prior art is not intended to imply that such prior art forms or formed a part of the common general knowledge in Australia or any other 20 country. 2421752_1 (GHMatter)

Claims (20)

1. An apparatus configured for assisting a user in determining a level of acceptability of an event occurring, the apparatus comprising: 5 an input for receiving a likelihood value which represents a likelihood that the event will occur, and a confidence value which represents a level of confidence that the user has in the likelihood value; a storage for storing a plurality of records, a 10 range of likelihood values, and a range of confidence values; an indicator assignor to assign a representative indicator to each of the plurality of records, each respective indicator representing a level of acceptability 15 of the event occurring; an identifier configured for identifying one of the records in the storage, the one of the records being identified by processing the likelihood value and the confidence value received by the input means, and each of 20 the records stored in the storage; and an output configured for outputting the assigned indicator of the one of the record identified by the identifying.

2. An apparatus as claimed in claim 1, wherein for a 25 subsequent input of a confidence value and a likelihood value of an event where a level of acceptability is to be determined, said identifier is configured to find a match of one or more stored records where the confidence values embrace the confidence value of the subsequent input, and 30 to then from stored records of such match find a match of a single record where the likelihood values embrace the likelihood value of the subsequent input, and outputting the assigned indicator for a matched single record, or if the likelihood values do not embrace the likelihood value 35 of the subsequent input, then a single stored record is identified where the likelihood value of the subsequent 2421752_1 (GHMatters) - 21 input is numerically closest to the likelihood values, and outputting the assigned indicator for that identified single record.

3. An apparatus as claimed in either claim 1 or 2, 5 wherein the respective indicator in each of the records is a respective visual indicator each being a different colour or symbol.

4. An apparatus as claimed in any one of the preceding claims, wherein the range of likelihood values in each of 10 the records comprises a range of probability values.

5. An apparatus as claimed in any one of the preceding claims, wherein the range of confidence values in each of the records comprises a range of integers.

6. An apparatus as claimed in any one of the preceding 15 claims, wherein the input means is configured to allow the user to enter and/or change the range of likelihood values and/or range of confidence values in each of the records.

7. An apparatus as claimed in any one of the preceding claims, wherein the identifier comprises a suitably 20 configured computer.

8. A method for assisting a user in determining a level of acceptability of an event occurring, the method comprising: receiving a likelihood value which represents a 25 likelihood that the event will occur, and a confidence value which represents a level of confidence that the user has in the likelihood value; storing a plurality of records each of which includes an indicator representing a level of 30 acceptability of the event occurring, a range of likelihood values, and a range of confidence values; identifying one of the records stored by the storing step, the one of the records being identified by

2421752.1 (GHMatter) - 22 processing the likelihood value and the confidence value received by the receiving step, and each of the records stored by the storing step; and outputting the indicator of said one of the 5 records so identified.

9. A method as claimed in claim 8, wherein for a subsequent input of a confidence value and a likelihood value of an event where a level of acceptability is to be determined, using said identifier to find a match of one 10 or more stored records where the confidence values embrace the confidence value of the subsequent input, and to then from stored records of such match find a match of a single record where the likelihood values embrace the likelihood value of the subsequent input, and outputting the assigned 15 indicator for a matched single record, or if the likelihood values do not embrace the likelihood value of the subsequent input, then identifying a single stored record where the likelihood value of the subsequent input is numerically closest to the likelihood values, and 20 outputting the assigned indicator for that identified single record.

10. A method as claimed in either claim 8 or 9, further comprising the step of entering and/or changing the range of likelihood values and/or range of confidence values in 25 each of the records.

11. An apparatus for determining a level of confidence in a risk assessment, the apparatus comprising: obtaining means operable to obtain a weighting that is associated with at least one of a plurality of 30 factors that can influence a reliability of the risk assessment; and comparing means operable to compare the weighting to a range of weightings which are associated with the factors in order to determine the level of confidence in 35 the risk assessment; 2421752.1 (GHMaters) - 23 wherein the obtaining means is such that it uses the at least one of the factors to retrieve the weighting from a record of the weightings and is operable to retrieve the weighting from the record by using a first 5 index and a second index to retrieve the weighting from the record, wherein the first index corresponds to a first of the at least one of the factors, and the second index corresponds to a second and a third of the at least one of the factors; and 10 wherein the first of the at least one of the factors relates to an environmental parameter associated with the risk assessment, the second of the at least one of the factors relates to an amount of work performed to determine the risk assessment, and the third of the at 15 least one of the factors relates to a level of acceptance associated with the amount of work performed and a technique used to perform the work.

12. An apparatus as claimed in claim 11, wherein the record comprises a matrix that contains an entry for each 20 of the weightings, and the first index and the second index correspond to an x, y coordinate for the entry.

13. A method of determining a level of confidence in a risk assessment, the method comprising the steps of: obtaining a weighting that is associated with at 25 least one of a plurality of factors that can influence a reliability of the risk assessment; and comparing the weighting to a range of weightings which are associated with the factors in order to determine the level of confidence in the risk assessment; 30 wherein the step of obtaining the weighting comprises using the at least one of the factors to retrieve the weighting from a record of the weightings; wherein the step of using the at least one of the factors to retrieve the weighting comprises the step of 35 using a first index and a second index to retrieve the weighting from the record, wherein the first index 2421752.1 (GHMatters) - 24 corresponds to a first of the at least one of the factors, and the second index corresponds to a second and a third of the at least one of the factors; and wherein the first of the at least one of the 5 factors relates to an environmental parameter associated with the risk assessment, the second of the at least one of the factors relates to an amount of work performed to determine the risk assessment, and the third of the at least one of the factors relates to a level of acceptance 10 associated with the amount of work performed and a technique used to perform the work.

14. A method as claimed in claim 13, wherein the record comprises a matrix that contains an entry for each of the weightings, and the first index and the second index 15 correspond to an x, y coordinate for the entry.

15. An apparatus for assisting a user in determining the level of confidence in a risk assessment, the apparatus comprising: input means for receiving multiple factors upon 20 which a risk is to be assessed; storage means for storing the factors, and a set of weighting indicators therefor; said multiple factors being: first factors which rate the environment context of the risk assessment; 25 second factors based on the extent of work performed to derive the risk assessment; third factors which rate a level of acceptance of the extent of the work performed to derive the risk assessment; 30 processing means for: processing the second and third factors to identify each possible combination of the second and third factors; processing each identified combination of 35 second and third factors, with first factors, to identify each possible combination of second and third factors, 2421752_1 (GHMatters) - 25 with first factors; processing each possible combination of second and third factors, with first factors, to establish a weighting index for each possible combination of second 5 and third factors, with first factors, each weighting index representing a level of confidence in a risk assessment; and output means for outputting a spread range of the set of weighting indexes, and the particular risk 10 assessment corresponding to a combination of the factors used to establish the weighting index, whereby a confidence in the risk assessment is determinable by the relative position of the weighting index in the spread range of the indexes outputted. 15

16. An apparatus as claimed in claim 15, wherein the established weighting indexes are entries in a matrix of the possible combination of second and third factors, with first factors, and wherein second and third factors and first factors provide an index to the matrix. 20

17. An apparatus as claimed in claim 16, wherein the index to the entries in the matrix are divided into sub factors; wherein the sub-factors for the first factors are selected from: simple; low moderate; moderate; high 25 moderate; and complex; the sub-factors for the second factors are selected from: basic; moderate; and extensive; and the sub-factors for the third factors are selected from: a single view; a small group; a large 30 group; and widely accepted.

18. A method of assisting a user in determining a level of confidence in a risk assessment, comprising: entering into input means multiple factors upon which a risk is to be accessed; 35 storing the factors and a set of weighting 2421752_1 (GMatters) - 26 indicators therefore; said multiple factors being: first factors which rate the environment context of the risk assessment; second factors which are based on the extent of work 5 performed to derive the risk assessment; third factors which rate the level of acceptance of the extent of the work performed to derive the risk assessment; processing said second and third factors and 10 identifying each possible combination of said second and third factors; identifying each possible combination of said second and third factors with said first factors; establishing a weighting index for each 15 identified possible combination of second and third with first factors, wherein each weighting index represents a level of confidence in a risk assessment within the set of weighting indicators; and determining a level of confidence by selecting 20 factors which match a risk assessment, and noting the weighting index therefore and its relative position within the set of weighting indexes.

19. An apparatus as claimed in claim 18, wherein a matrix of entries is established of the weighting indexes, and 25 wherein second and third factors, and first factors provide an index to the matrix.

20. An apparatus as claimed in claim 19, wherein the entries in the matrix are divided into sub-factors; wherein the sub-factors for the first factors are 30 selected from: simple; low; moderate; high moderate; and complex; the sub-factors for the second factors are selected from: basic, moderate, and extensive; and the sub-factors for the third factors are 35 selected from: a single view; a small group; a large group; and widely accepted. 2421752.1 (GHMatter)