AU2003236493B2 - Asset performance prediction - Google Patents

Description

AUSTRALIA Patents Act 1990 RESIDEX PTY LIMITED COMPLETE SPECIFICATION STANDARD PATENT Invention Title: Asset performance prediction The following statement is a full description of this invention including the best method of performing It known to us:- 2 Title Asset Performance Prediction Technical Field 5 This Invention concerns the prediction of asset performance. It can be expressed as a method of doing business, a method of operating a computer, a programmed computer system, and as software programs. 10 Background Art Investors tend to approached an investment in a particular asset with known information as to how much should be paid or what the market value of the asset Is likely to be. They negotiate the price based on that Information. The 15 information used has been generally been widely available in the public domain. The asset has generally been purchased on the basis of perceived probable return without anything other than a best guess as to the likely outcome. 20 To improve the situation investors read widely and make some assumptions to understand what the investment might return. Some have modelled the investment and this has become more prevalent as the use of computer power has proliferated. These more analysis-driven persons have even created varying assumption sets to use in their models to allow them to test outcomes 25 in situations where they believed they had created the potentially most pessimistic or most optimistic of assumption sets. However, even these people have usually determined these assumption sets on anecdotal evidence. Not only this but the models generally have not identified the future obligations with any attached degree of confidence/probabiity or chance. 30 Disclosure of the Invention The Invention is a method of operating a computer to predict asset performance, comprising the steps of Storing historical data concerning a class of assets in computer memory. 35 Modelling the historical data.

3 Analysing errors between historical and modelled data to determine their distribution. Generating a large number of sets of data modelling the Mure behaviour of the data taking account of the analysed error distributions. 5 Inputting specific asset data. Inputting desired outcomes from the specific asset. Calculating the likelihood of the desired outcomes from the large number of sets of outcomes. Outputting the likelihood. 10 The Invention Is also a computer system programmed for predicting asset performance, comprising: A computer memory to store historical data concerning a class of assets. A user interface to Input specific asset data and desired outcomes from the 15 specific asset. A computer processor to access the historical data from memory and the specific asset data input, and to: model the historical data. analyse errors between historical and modelled data to determine their 20 distribution. Generate a large number of sets of data modelling the future behaviour of the data taking account of the analysed error distributions, Calculate the likelihood of the desired outcomes from the large number of sets of outcomes. 25 Output the likelihood to the user interface. The invention is also a software program for controlling a computer comprising a memory in which historical data concerning a class of assets is stored, a user interface to receive specific asset data and output data, and a processor; 30 wherein the processor operates under the control of the software program to: model the historical data. analyse errors between historical and modelled data to determine their distribution. Generate a large number of sets of data modelling the future behaviour 35 of the data taking account of the analysed error distributions.

4 Calculate the likelihood of the desired outcomes from the large number of sets of outcomes. Output the likelihood to the user interface. 5 This invention is also a method for predicting asset performance, comprising the steps of: Collecting historical data concerning a class of assets. Modelling the historical data. Analysing errors between historical and modelled data to determine their 10 distribution. Generating a large number of sets of data modelling the future behaviour of the data taking account of the analysed error distributions. inputting specific asset data. Inputting desired outcomes from the specific asset. 15 Calculating the likelihood of the desired outcomes from the lame number of sets of outcomes. Outputting the likelihood. The Invention can be used In a number of advantageous ways: 20 1. It allows the user to identify the likely outcome at a given level of risk that the user sets. This impact Is not only expressed in return terms but in cash flow obligation and cash reward terms; 2. It allows the user to understand what the returns represent by equating them to an asset which all understand a Savings Bank Deposit; 25 3. It allows the user to understand what the maximum cash obligations are likely to be at a given level of risk which the user sets; and 4. It determines the returns in a more realistic way than previously developed. It takes account of other assets the user is forced to put at risk to acquire the asset. Additionally, It compares the tax position of the 30 user before and after the Investment to determine the tax impact of the investment and only includes the cash flow impact from the investment In the return calculation. This invention is useful in the housing market but it could equally be applicable 35 for other assets where it is possible to develop a large set of indices that cover all possible outcomes of relevant indices for all of the components of the 5 investment. That Is, funding costs, cash flows for the asset and growth rates for the assets etc. The indices when being developed must be developed in such a way that causes each set of Indices in a group to contain a random component so that the total group of Indices making up the set covers all possible 5 outcomes. The total set of Indices should contain something in the order of 1,000 Individual groups of indices (The Index Set). While the method of construction of these predictive indices may change depending on the series being developed, the random aspect is Imperative. 10 The invention may be embodied in a suite of software and algorithms which is capable of accepting The Index Set, the asset purchase price, costs associated with the asset acquisition and sale, the taxation Information for an Individuallcorporation and their income details and then assessing the information provided and providinrg from that information an outcome which will 15 tell the user " what at any chance or probability the return Is likely to be given the income and tax situation of the user; " a distribution of return outcomes so that the user can identify at what confidence or chance the return will not be less than the return being set 20 as the required return from the Investment; * what a return means at a given confidence in terms of having invested in an asset which is easily understood, that is a bank deposit; " what chance or probability there is of the user having to contribute additional cash to the investment to support it. The amount required 25 being an amount which is above the amount which is put to the system as being acceptable; * what the cash flow obligations are likely to exceed over the entire investment period at a given probability or chance; * what the not cash receipt is likely to be at a given chance or probability 30 at any given year or period should the asset be sold. Benefits of the Invention For the first time a user can now assess the likely return they as an Individual 35 are likely to achieve at a chance or probability that they believe is acceptable in terms of their risk taking preferences. Additionally, they can assess the likely 6 outcome if they at any particular time are forced to dispose of the asset. It allows the user to also detennine when and if a sale at any point in time Is better than a hold for a time period based on their known likely personal position and in cash flow terms what that hOld strategy is likely to cost each 5 month. That is, will they get a better price if they hold for the next two years and what is the monthly cost, if any, of holding the asset. In summary, the software tool presents the user with the opportunity to set the risk or chance level and look Into the future and identify at that risk level the 10 lowest cash and return level that is likely to be achieved. Brief Description of the Drawings An example of the invention will now be described with reference to Fig. 1 15 which Is a block diagram of a computer system. Best Modes of the Invention The invention will be described with reference to an investment in residential 20 assets. The user accesses the software and enters the following information 11: 1. The address of the property being considered; 25 2. In the event that the user does not propose to rent the property then the user does not complete items 6) to 8). 3. The Purchase price of the property 4. Current stamp duty costs 5. Current legal costs for both buying and selling 30 6. The anticipated current gross rental per week the property is likely to achieve 7. An assumption with respect to likely annual duration of vacancy (this assumption can be provided by way of an index or number series) 8. Current anticipated management and maintenance costs for the property 35 including state taxes such as land tax etc 7 9. Various taxation Information such as the amount of assets which are depreciable and the rate at which they are depreciable and the tax rate applicable on capital profits and what percentage of the capital profit is assessable 5 10. The current income the user receives in either weekly or annual terms 11.The duration of the investment and the return they hope to achieve Note the data will change slightly depending on the task the software is required to undertake. 10 At this point the software accesses The Index Set 12. These are provided from the software supplier having been calculated to present a realistic full range of all possible outcomes based on the pest. With respect to a Residential asset analysis it is recommended that at least the following Indices are included in 15 each index group, Consumer Price Inflation, House Price Growth, The Short Term Cash Rate or the 90 day Bank Bill rate and The Rental Rate. Additionally, the following additional indices in each group will present improved results, Average Weekly Wages inflation, Average Vacancy Rate Inflation, Average Construction/Building Cost inflation and a Taxation Rate Change indicator 20 expressed as an Index series. The Index Set Is specifically built for the property location, that is, the Town, Suburb or Postoode or Zip code. 25 The model used to generate the various possible futures Is derived from statistical trends and relationships that analysis reveals In the historical times series of the financial variables modelled eg, (including house price inflation, rental yields, general inflation (CPI), interest rates (90 day bank bills and 10 year bonds), etc). 30 So, for example, general inflation and house price inflation are strongly correlated (ie when one Is high, there Is a tendency for the other to be high) and, therefore, given that we know what general Inflation is likely to be In any given year, this helps us to estimate what house price Inflation might be in that 35 same year. Other relationships are less obvious, and may Include lags so that, for example, the 90 day bank bill rate may be correlated with general inflation 8 three years ago. All the significant and relevant relationships are tied together in our model for the future of these financial variables. The model is simply a series of equations, relating each variable to prior variables, thus enabling us to forecast into the future. 5 Now, clearly this model Is not 100% accurate, We attempt to build a model that maps as closely as possible to the historical financial series. But it will never map perfectly. We measure the various deviations from the actual past, compared to what it might have been had it followed the model and use these 10 deviations to measure the distribution and magnitude of possible errors for each financial series. These distributions of errors now enable us to simulate the future. For each financial variable, we apply the model to get a preliminary estimate of Its 15 Immediate future value. As the model is not perfect, we know that the actual future will deviate from that which is modelled and the distribution of errors indicates how much It might deviate. We use a random number generator to select a point from that error distribution and add that error factor to the model prediction to derive our adjusted prediction for that financial variable and 20 particular time period. We then repeat this process for each variable and for each time period into the future, using the randomly generated predictions as basis for any future predictions. This generates one set of possible future values for the financial variables. If 25 we repeat this process then, due to the random component, we will obtain a different set of future values. Repeating this a large number of times, say 1000 times, enables a wide spectrum of possible futures to be covered, sufficient to allow the software to generate results that reflect virtually all realistically foreseeable future possibilities. 30 Process The software is now in a position to analyse the data and produce the required 35 outcomes. It proceeds by entering a loop which will allow it to undertake a calculation set for each of the 1000 groups of indices and produce answers in 9 terms of cash flows and yields etc for each of the groups of Indices the software provider has provided. The results are stored in a data base 14 for future sorting and analysis to determine distributions and probability/chance of that outcome. 5 With respect to each index group it calculates a full set of cash flows which takes into account the resulting taxation increase or decrease in obligation that the user has incurred as a consequence of entering the transaction. It also produces or takes into account the net cash or shortage that is generated from 10 the investment. Additionally, the model assesses the changing liability the investment is causing as a consequence of the user providing additional security to support the investment (Liability Support). In summary, the model determines the yield and equivalent bank deposit rate after tax resulting from the investment using the particular index Group where the following is taken 15 Into account: " The Liability Support; " The net cash, the investment generates, be It positive or negative; " The amount of increased or decreased taxation obligation the user has 20 incurred as a consequence of making the Investment Having assessed the position for each Group of Indices and put the results to a data base the software proceeds to now sort the results so the following distributions can be determined: 25 e Returns from equivalent investment in Savings Deposits and the yield on the funds provided to the investment; " Negative Cash flow obligations In terms of duration and dollars above specified terms and amount which have been provided by user in terms 30 of their selected risk profile " Cash flow obligations on a period by period basis to enable identification of actual obligations on a period by period basis again in terms of the users specified risk profile " Residual net cash receipts for asset disposal at any particular period 35 10 Using various interpolation and averaging techniques we are able to produce a 'summary index' that will provide a specific future, which is representative of the selected risk profile. This 'summary Index' will show future trends in the various financial variables as well as provide a set of cash flows consistent with the 5 results of the selected risk profile. Output The user can produce a number of reports 15 and 16 from the system and 10 these range from listings of: * The assumptions the user has put to the system; * An analysis of the tax position of the individual before and after the Investment has been made for any particular Index Group; * The summary of the cash flows for any particular Index Group; 15 * The profile of the loan which has been taken out and the profile of that loan for any particular Index group; * The yield or retum expressed as a percentage per annum on funds Invested and the equivalent deposit rate which would be needed to generate the same cash out flows from the savings deposit at a user 20 defined chance or confidence; " The maximum cash obligation and duration of that maximum cash flow obligation at the users defined confidence or chance; * The likely cash obligations resulting from the Investment for any user defined confidence or chance; 25 a The likely loan obligations resulting from the investment for any user defined confidence or chance; " The sale price for each period for the asset at any user defined confidence or chance; and " The net sale proceeds (Sale proceeds less tax and costs) for each 30 period that the user could expect from the sale of the asset at a user given confidence or chance. The annexes illustrate these reports 11 It should be appreciated that for some of these reports the user enters the return they desire 20 and the software provides an indication of the confidence that the user can expect the desired return. 5 For example, the user can obtain the following reports: a) A maximum obligation report with respect to a user stated risk level with respect to loan repayment obligations for each period. b) A maximum obligation report with respect to a user stated risk level with 10 respect to the net cashflow obligations that the user has to support the Investment for each period. This net cashflow obligation will also be specified as a percentage of the gross income of the user for the relevant period. c) A report at the users stated risk level with 15 respect to each period for the sale value of the asset and the expected net profit at the relevant risk level that the user can expect. It will be appreciated by persons skilled in the art that numerous variations and/or modifications may be made to the invention as shown in the 20 specific embodiments without departing from the spirit or scope of the invention as broadly described. The present embodiments are, therefore, to be considered in all respects as Illustrative and not restrictive.

EDITORIAL NOTE APPLICATION NO. 2003236493 The Description does not contain pages numbered 12 to 20.

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~6 2 E 22 ew 0 < ---------------- -------- 0 - - -6___ C E rlt lc in La n rC, i ;4 4P % Ln 0%* E w 4 - -_ _o _ 7"@~L mt 00 00 LA 0 0 z0( . 00 CcA I N9w 0 t wE E 'n m i~~ E - -~E : c L - ig 2 - e o -E cL 2:2 o 00 OL E 8m = I 20 c E~~ Ev Iz c EE b~~ ~ E y - E"a *e s " 0 0 .0 fu U o CL i : ag : .3 M m on v- V - vr V vv T v v v L m m. in x n Ln I Ize L Io I3 "15 21 - 111- 23 Year Property Value Annual Net Building Depreciation Written Annual Annual Capital Amortisation Number Rental Allowance Down Value Change In Growth of Equity of Loan Depreciable Balance Assets 0 350,000.00 52,500.00 -48,200.00 1 371,000.00 11,725.00 3,937.50 5,250.00 47,250.00 5,402.82 21,000.00 24,302.82 2 393,260.00 12,428.50 3,937.50 4,725.00 42,525.00 5,803.87 22,260.00 23,897.18 3 416,855.60 13,174.21 3,937.50 4,252.50 38,272.50 6,234.69 23,595.60 0.00 4 441,866.94 13,964.66 3,937.50 3,827.25 34,445.25 6,697.49 25,011.34 0.00 5 468,378.95 14,802.54 3,937.50 3,444.53 31,000.73 7,194.64 26,512.02 0.00 6 496,481.69 15,690.69 350 3,100.07 27,900.65 7,728.70 28,102.74 0.00 7 526,270.59 16,632.14 3,937.50 2,790.07 25,110.59 8,302.39 29,788.90 0.00 8 5 . | 30 3r937.50 2,511.06 22,599.53 1 8,918.68 , 31,576.24 0.00 24 Balance of Unamortised Equity 48,200.00 23,897.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 25 Month Repayment Principal Interest Balance Annual Annual Fixed Fixed Number Amount Component Component Outstanding Interest Change in Repayment Principal Deduction Loan Balance Amount Component 0 -363,200.00 1 2,609.30 435.61 -2173.69 -362,764.39 2,609.30 435.61 2 2,609.30 438.21 -2171.08 26.18 2,609.30 438.21 3 2,609.30 440.84 -2168.46 -361,885.34 2,609.30 440.84 4 2,609.30 443.47 -2165.82 -641.87 2,609.30 443.47 5 2,609.30 446.13 -2163.17 2,609.30 446.13 6 2,609.30 448.80 -2160.50 -360,546.94 2,609.30 448.80 7 2,609.30 451.48 -2157.81 -360,095.46 2,609.30 451.48 8 2,609.30 454.19 -2155.11 -359,641.27 2,609.30 454.19 9 2,609.30 456.90 -2152.39 -359,184.37 2,609.30 456.90 10 2,609.30 459.64 -2149.66 -358,724.73 2,609.30 459.64 11 2,609.30 462.39 -2146.91 -358,262.34 2,609.30 462.39 12 2,609.30 465.16 -2144.14 -357,797.18 -25,908.73 5,402.82 2,609.30 465.16 13 2,609.30 467.94 -2141.35 -357,329.24 2,609.30 467.94 14 2,609.30 470.74 -2138.55 -356,858.50 2,609.30 470.74 15 2,609.30 473.56 -2135.74 -356,384.94 2,609.30 473.56 16 2,609.30 476.39 -2132.90 -355,908.55 2,609.30 476.39 17 2,609.30 479.24 -2130.05 -355,429.30 2,609.30 479.24 18 2,609.30 482.11 -2127.18 -354,947.19 2,609.30 482.11 19 2,609.30 485.00 -2124.30 -354,462.19 2,609.30 485.00 20 2,609.30 487.90 -2121.39 -353,974.29 2,609.30 487.90 21 2,609.30 490.82 -2118.47 -353,483.47 2,609.30 490.82 22 2,609.30 493.76 -2115.54 -352,989.71 2,609.30 493.76 23 2,609.30 496.71 -2112.58 -352,493.00 2,609.30 496.71 24 2,609.30 499.69 -2109.61 -351,993.31 25,507.68 5,803.87 2,609.30 499.69 25 2,609.30 502.68 -2106.62 -351,490.64 2,609.30 502.68 26 2,609.30 505.68 -2103.61 -350,984.95 2,609.30 505.68 27 2,609.30 508.71 -2100.58 -350,476.24 2,609.30 508.71 28 2,609.30 511.76 -2097.54 -349,964.49 2,609.30 511.76 29 2,609.30 514.82 -2094.48 -349,449.67 2,609.30 514.82 30 2,609.30 517.90 -2091.40 -348,931.77 2,609.30 517.90 31 2,609.30 521 -2088.30 -348,410.77 2,609.30 521.00 32 2,609.30 524.12 -2085.18 -347,886.65 2,609.30 524.12 33 2,609.30 527.25 -2082.04 -347,359.40 2,609.30 527.25 34 2,609.30 530.41 -2078.89 -346,828.99 2,609.30 530.41 35 2,609.30 533.58 -2075.71 -346,295.40 2,609.30 533.58 36 2,609.30 536.78 -2072.52 -345,758.63 -25,076.86 6,234.69 2,609.30 536.78 37 2,609.30 539.99 -2069.31 -345,218.64 2,609.30 539.99 38 2,609.30 543.22 -2066.07 -344,675.41 2,609.30 543.22 39 2,609.30 546.47 -2062.82 -344,128.94 2,609.30 546.67 40 2,609.30 549.74 -2059.55 -343,579.20 2,609.30 549.74 41 2,609.30 553.03 -2056.26 -343,026.17 2,609.30 553.03 42 2,609.30 556.34 -2052.95 -342,469.82 2,609.30 556.34 43 2,609.30 559.67 -2049.62 -341,910.15 2,609.30 559.67 44 2,609.30 563.02 -2046.27 -341,347.13 2,609.30 563.02 45 2,609.30 566.39 -2042.90 -340,780.74 2,609.30 566.39 46 2,609.30 569.78 -2039.51 -340,210.95 2,609.30 569.78 47 2,609.30 573.19 -2036.10 -339,637.76 2,609.30 573.19 48 2,609.30 576.62 -2032.67 -339,061.14 -24,614.06 6,697.49 2,609.30 576.62 49 2,609.30 580.07 -2029.22 -338,481.07 2,609.30 580.07 50 2,609.30 583.54 -2025.75 -337,897.52 2,609.30 583.54 51 2,609.30 587.04 -2022.26 -337,310.48 2,609.30 587.04 52 2,609.30 590.55 -2018.74 -336,719.93 2,609.30 590.55 53 2,609.30 594.08 -2015.21 -336,125.85 2,609.30 594.08 54 2,609.30 597.64 -2011.66 -335,528.21 2,609.30 597.64 55 2,609.30 601.22 -2008.08 -334,926.99 2,609.30 601.22 56 2,609.30 604.82 -2004.48 -334,322.18 2,609.30 604.82 57 2,609.30 608.44 -2000.86 -333,713.74 2,609.30 608.44 58 2,609.30 612.08 -1997.22 -333,101.66 2,609.30 612.08 59 2,609.30 615.74 -1993.56 -332,485.92 2,609.30 61574 60 2,609.30 619.42 -1989.87 -331,866.50 2,609.30 619.42 26 61 2,609.30 623.13 -1986.16 -331,243.37 2,609.30 623.13 62 2,609.30 626.86 -1982.43 -330,616.51 2,609.30 626.86 63 2,609.30 634.39 -1978.68 -329,985.89 2,609.30 630.61 64 2,609.30 634.39 -1974.91 -329,351.51 2,609.30 634.39 65 2,609.30 638.18 -1971.11 -328,713.22 2,609.30 638.18 66 2,609.30 642.00 -1967.29 -328,071.32 2,609.30 642.00 67 2,609.30 645.85 -1963.45 -327,425.48 2,609.30 645.85 68 2,609.30 649.71 -1959.58 -326,775.76 2,609.30 649.71 69 2,609.30 653.60 -1955.70 -326,122.17 2,609.30 653.60 70 2,609.30 657.51 -1951.78 -325,464.66 2,609.30 657.51 71 2,609.30 661.45 -1947.85 -324,803.21 2,609.30 661.45 72 2,609.30 665.40 -1943.89 -324,137.80 -23,582.85 7,728.70 2,609.30 665.40 73 2,609.30 669.39 -1939.91 -323,468.42 2,609.30 669.39 74 2,609.30 673.39 -1935.90 -322,795.03 2,609.30 673.39 75 2,609.30 677.42 -1931.87 -322,117.60 2,609.30 677.42 76 2,609.30 681.48 -1927.82 -321,436.12 2,609.30 681.48 77 2,609.30 685.56 -1923.74 -320,750.57 2,609.30 685.56 78 2,609.30 689.66 -1919.64 -320,060.91 2,609.30 689.66 79 2,609.30 693.79 -1915.51 -319,367.12 2,609.30 693.79 80 2,609.30 697.64 -1911.36 -318,669.19 2,609.30 697.94 81 2,609.30 702.12 -1907.18 -317,967.07 2,609.30 702.12 82 2,609.30 706.32 -1902.98 -317,260.75 2,609.30 706.32 83 2,609.30 710.54 -1898.75 -316,550.21 2,609.30 710.54 84 2,609.30 714.80 -1894.50 -315,835.41 23,009.15 8,302.39 2,609.30 714.80 85 2,609.30 719.08 -1890.22 -315,116.34 2,609.30 719.08 86 2,609.30 723.38 -1885.92 -314,392.96 2,609.30 723.38 87 2,609.30 727.71 -1881.59 -313,665.25 2,609.30 727.71 88 2,609.30 732.06 -1877.23 -312,933.19 2,609.30 732.06 89 2,609.30 736.44 -1872.85 -312,196.74 2,609.30 736.44 90 2,609.30 740.85 -1868.44 -311,455.89 2,609.30 740.85 91 2,609.30 745.29 -1864.01 -310,710.60 2,609.30 745.29 92 2,609.30 749.75 -1859.55 -309,960.86 2,609.30 749.75 93 2,609.30 754.23 -1855.06 -309,206.62 2,609.30 754.23 94 2,609.30 758.75 -1850.55 -308,447.88 2,609.30 758.75 95 2,609.30 763.29 -1846.01 -307,684.59 2,609.30 763.29 96 2,609.30 767.86 -1841.44 -306,916.73 -22,392.87 8,918.68 2,609.30 767.86 27 Fixed Fixed Balance Interest Outstanding Component -363200.00 -2,173.69 -362764.39 -2,171.08 -362326.18 -2,168.46 -361885.34 -2,165.82 -361441.87 -2,163.17 -360995.74 -2,160.50 -360546.94 -2,157.81 -360095.46 -2,155.11 -359641.27 -2,152.39 -359184.37 -2,149.66 -358724.73 -2,146.91 -358262.34 -2,144.14 -357797.18 -2,141.35 -357329.24 -2,138.55 -356858.50 -2,135.74 -356384.94 -2,132.90 -355908.55 -2,130.05 -355429.30 -2,127.18 -354947.19 -2,124.30 -354462.19 -2,121.39 -353974.29 -2,118.47 -353483.47 -2,115.54 -352989.71 -2,112.58 -352493.00 -2,109.61 -351993.31 -2,106.62 -351490.64 -2,103.61 -350984.95 -2,100.58 -350476.24 -2,097.54 -349964.49 -2,094.48 -349449.67 -2,091.40 -348931.77 -2,088.30 -348410.77 -2,085.18 -347886.65 -2,082.04 -347359.40 -2,078.89 -346828.99 -2,075.71 -346295.40 -2,072.52 -345758.63 -2,069.31 -345218.64 -2,066.07 -344675.41 -2,062.82 -344128.94 -2,059.55 -343579.20 -2,056.26 -343026.17 -2,052.95 -342469.82 -2,049.62 -341910.15 -2,046.27 -341347.13 -2,042.90 -340780.74 -2,039.51 -340210.95 -2,036.10 -339637.76 -2,032.67 -339061.14 -2,029.22 -338481.07 -2,025.75 -337897.52 -2,022.26 -337310.48 -2,018.74 -336719.93 -2,015.21 -336125.85 -2,011.66 -335528.21 -2,008.08 -334926.99 -2,004.48 -334322.18 -2,000.86 -333713.74 -1,997.22 -333101.66 -1,993.56 -332485.92 -1,989.87 -331866.50 28 -1,986.16 -331243.37 -1,982.43 -330616.51 -1,978.68 -329985.89 -1,974.91 -329351.51 -1,971.11 -328713.32 -1,967.29 -328071.32 -1,963.45 -327425.48 -1,959.58 -326775.76 -1,955.70 -326122.17 -1,951.78 -325464.66 -1,947.85 -324803.21 -1,943.89 -324137.80 -1,939.91 -323468.42 -1,935.90 -322795.03 -1,931.87 -322117.60 -1,927.82 -321436.12 -1,923.74 -320750.57 -1,919.64 -320060.91 -1,915.51 -319367.12 -1,911.36 -318669.19 -1,907.18 -317967.07 -1,902.98 -317260.75 -1,898.75 -316550.21 -1,894.50 -315835.41 -1,890.22 -315116.34 -1,885.92 -314392.96 -1,881.59 -313665.25 -1,877.23 -312933.19 -1,872.85 -312196.74 -1,868.44 -311455.89 -1,864.01 -310710.60 -1,859.55 -309960.86 -1,855.06 -309206.62 -1,850.55 -308447.88 -1,846.01 -307684.59 -1,841.44 -306916.73 29 Year Number Annual Income Tax Payable Average Tax Rate % 0 45,000.00 1 47,700.00 -11,405.50 23.91 2 50,562.00 -12,402.57 24.53 3 53,595.72 -13,873.92 25.89 4 56,811.46 -15,433.56 27.17 5 60,220.15 -16,586.77 27.54 6 63,833.36 -18,339.18 28.73 7 67,663.36 -20,196.73 29.85 8 71,723.16 -22,165.73 30.90 A IN*e_ 30 Year Number Annual Income Rental Receipt Interest Paid Building Depreciation Gross Carried Forward Allowance Asessable Losses Income 0 45,000.00 1 47,700.00 11,725.00 -25,908.73 -3,937.50 -5,250.00 24,328.77 0.00 2 50,562.00 12,428.50 -25,507.68 -3,937.50 -4,725.00 28,820.32 0.00 3 53,595.72 13,174.21 -25,076.86 -3,937.50 -4,252.50 33,503.07 0.00 4 56,811.46 13,964.66 -24,614.06 -3,937.50 -3,827.25 38,397.32 0.00 5 60,220.15 14,802.54 -24,116.91 -3,937.50 -3,444.53 43,523.76 0.00 6 63,833.36 15,690.69 -23,582.85 -3,937.50 -3,100.07 48,903.63 0.00 7 67,663.36 16,632.14 -23,009.15 -3,937.50 -2,790.07 54,558.78 0.00 8 71,723.16 17,630.06 -22,392.87 -3,937.50 -2,511.06 60r511.80 0.00 31 Net Assessable Annual Tax Annual Tax Monthly Tax Income inc. Tax Payable Tax Payable on Income Payable Savings Savings Taxable Capital Ind. Capital Capital Profit Profit Profit 1 0.00 2 24,328.77 -4,043.56 7,361.94 613.49 3 28,820.32 -5,458.40 6,944.17 576.68 4 33,503.07 -6,933.47 6,940.46 578.37 5 38,397.32 -8,475.15 6,958.40 579.87 6 43,523.76 -10,089.98 6,496.79 541.40 7 48,903.63 -11,784.64 6,554.54 546.21 8 54,558.78 -14,341.01 5,855.72 487.98 9 60,511.80 1-16728.22 5,437.51 451.13 153,542.89 -61,848.30 -45,120.08 32 "An -FTC- 77 0.00 0.00 0.001 0.0 2 6,000.00 0.00 17.00 17.00 3 20,000.00 2,380.00 30.00 30 * 00 4 50,000.00 11,380.00 47.00 47.00 5 60,000.00 15,58 .00 47.00 47.001 AWIx t 33 Year Number CPI % HPI % Rental Yield % Borrowing Rate % Deposit Rate % 1 6.00 6.00 5.20 7.22 5.22 2 6.00 6.00 5.20 7.22 5.22 3 6.00 6.00 5.20 7.22 5.22 4 6.00 6.00 5.20 7.22 5.22 5 6.00 6.00 5.20 7.22 5.22 6 6.00 6.00 5.20 7.22 5.22 7 6.00 6.00 5.20 7.22 5.22 8 6.00 6.00 5.20 7.22| 5.22 Year Number Annual Income Interest on Gross Annual Tax Annual Tax Savings Assessable Payable Savings Account Income 0 45,000.00 45,000.00 1 47,700.00 14,051.34 61,751.34 -17,329.40 -5,923.90 2 50,562.00 12,818.63 63,380.63 -18,119.60 -5,717.03 3 53,595.72 14,472.43 68,068.15 -20,393.05 -6,519.13 4 56,811.46 20,416.33 77,227.79 -24,835.48 -9,401.92 5 60,220.15 27,132.05 87,352.20 -29,745.82 -13,159.04 6 63,833.36 34,585.83 98,419.19 -35,113.31 -16,774.13 7 67,663.36 43,051.18 110,714.54 -41,076.55 -20,879.82 8 71r723.16 52,771.90 124.495.06 -47,760.11 -25,594.37 NNe3o 35 Month Purchase Price Net Rental Tax Saved Loan Net Cash - Risk Equity Net Capital Interest on Number or Net Sale Income Repayments Cost per Contributions Used Investment Proceeds Month 0 -364,700.00 363,200.00 -1,500.00 -48,200.00 -49,700.00 1 0.00 977.08 613.49 -2,609.30 -1,018.72 2,025.23 1,006.52 -648.68 2 0.00 977.08 613.49 -2,609.30 -1,018.72 2,025.23 1,006.52 -644.01 3 0.00 977.08 613.49 -2,609.30 -1,018.72 2,025.23 1,006.52 -639.28 4 0.00 977.08 613.49 -2,609.30 -1,018.72 2,025.23 1,006.52 -634.48 5 0.00 977.08 613.49 -2,609.30 -1,018.72 2,025.23 1,006.52 -629.63 6 0.00 977.08 613.49 -2,609.30 -1,018.72 2,025.23 1,006.52 -624.71 7 0.00 977.08 613.49 -2,609.30 -1,018.72 2,025.23 1,006.52 -619.73 8 0.00 977.08 613.49 -2,609.30 -1,018.72 2,025.23 1,006.52 -614.68 9 0.00 977.08 613.49 -2,609.30 -1,018.72 2,025.23 1,006.52 -609.56 10 0.00 977.08 613.49 -2,609.30 -1,018.72 2,025.23 1,006.52 -604.38 11 0.00 977.08 613.49 -2,609.30 -1,018.72 2,025.23 1,006.52 -599.13 12 0.00 977.08 613.49 -2,609.30 -1,018.72 2,025.23 1,006.52 -593.82 13 0.00 1,035.71 578.68 -2,609.30 -994.91 1,991.43 996.53 -588.43 14 0.00 1,035.71 578.68 -2,609.30 -994.91 1,991.43 996.53 -583.10 15 0.00 1,035.71 578.68 -2,609.30 -994.91 1,991.43 996.53 -577.71 16 0.00 1,035.71 578.68 -2,609.30 -994.91 1,991.43 996.53 -572.24 17 0.00 1,035.71 578.68 -2,609.30 -994.91 1,991.43 996.53 -566.70 18 0.00 1,035.71 578.68 -2,609.30 -994.91 1,991.43 996.53 -561.09 19 0.00 1,035.71 578.68 -2,609.30 -994.91 1,991.43 996.53 -555.41 20 0.00 1,035.71 578.68 -2,609.30 -994.91 1,991.43 996.53 -549.65 21 0.00 1,035.71 578.68 -2,609.30 -994.91 1,991.43 996.53 -543.82 22 0.00 1,035.71 578.68 -2,609.30 -994.91 1,991.43 996.53 -537.91 23 0.00 1,035.71 578.68 -2,609.30 -994.91 1,991.43 996.53 -531.93 24 0.00 1,035.71 578.68 -2,609.30 -994.91 1,991.43 996.53 -525.86 25 0.00 1,097.85 578.37 -2,609.30 -933.07 0.00 -933.07 -519.72 26 0.00 1,097.85 578.37 -2,609.30 -933.07 0.00 -933.07 -538.68 27 0.00 1,097.85 578.37 -2,609.30 -933.07 0.00 -933.07 -557.89 28 0.00 1,097.85 578.37 -2,609.30 -933.07 0.00 -933.07 -577.35 29 0.00 1,097.85 578.37 -2,609.30 -933.07 0.00 -933.07 -597.06 30 0.00 1,097.85 578.37 -2,609.30 -933.07 0.00 -933.07 -617.03 31 0.00 1,097.85 578.37 -2,609.30 -933.07 0.00 -933.07 -637.27 32 0.00 1,097.85 578.37 -2,609.30 -933.07 0.00 -933.07 -657.76 33 0.00 1,097.85 578.37 -2,609.30 -933.07 0.00 -933.07 -678.52 34 0.00 1,097.85 578.37 -2,609.30 -933.07 0.00 -933.07 -699.56 35 0.00 1,097.85 578.37 -2,609.30 -933.07 0.00 -933.07 -720.87 36 0.00 1,097.85 578.37 -2,609.30 -933.07 0.00 -933.07 -742.46 37 0.00 1,163.72 579.87 -2,609.30 -865.71 0.00 -865.71 -764.32 38 0.00 1,163.72 579.87 -2,609.30 -865.71 0.00 -865.71 -785.60 39 0.00 1,163.72 579.87 -2,609.30 -865.71 0.00 -865.71 -807.15 40 0.00 1,163.72 579.87 -2,609.30 -865.71 0.00 -865.71 -828.99 41 0.00 1,163.72 579.87 -2,609.30 -865.71 0.00 -865.71 -851.10 42 0.00 1,163.72 579.87 -2,609.30 -865.71 0.00 -865.71 -873.51 43 0.00 1,163.72 579.87 -2,609.30 -865.71 0.00 -865.71 -896.21 44 0.00 1,163.72 579.87 -2,609.30 -865.71 0.00 -865.71 -919.21 45 0.00 1,163.72 579.87 -2,609.30 -865.71 0.00 -865.71 -942.51 46 0.00 1,163.72 579.87 -2,609.30 -865.71 0.00 -865.71 -966.11 47 0.00 1,163.72 579.87 -2,609.30 -865.71 0.00 -865.71 -990.01 48 0.00 1,163.72 579.87 -2,609.30 -865.71 0.00 -865.71 -1,014.23 49 0.00 1,233.55 541.40 -2,609.30 -834.35 0.00 -834.35 -1,038.77 50 0.00 1,233.55 541.40 -2,609.30 -834.35 0.00 -834.35 -1,063.22 51 0.00 1,233.55 541.40 -2,609.30 -834.35 0.00 -834.35 -1,087.99 52 0.00 1,233.55 541.40 -2,609.30 -834.35 0.00 -834.35 -1,113.08 53 0.00 1,233.55 541.40 -2,609.30 -834.35 0.00 -834.35 -1,138.49 54 0.00 1,233.55 541.40 -2,609.30 -834.35 0.00 -834.35 -1,164.24 55 0.00 1,233.55 541.40 -2,609.30 -834.35 0.00 -834.35 -1,190.33 56 0.00 1,233.55 541.40 -2,609.30 -834.35 0.00 -834.35 -1,216.75 57 0.00 1,233.55 541.40 -2,609.30 -834.35 0.00 -834.35 -1,243.53 58 0.00 1,233.55 541.40 -2,609.30 -834.35 0.00 -834.35 -1,270.65 59 0.00 1,233.55 541.40 -2,609.30 -834.35 0.00 -834.35 -1,298.12 60 0.00 1,233.55 541.40 -2,609.30 -834.35 0.00 -834.35 -1,325.95 61 0.00 1,307.56 546.21 -2,609.30 -755.53 0.00 -755.53 1-1354.15 36 62 0.00 1,307.56 546.21 -2,609.30 -755.53 0.00 -755.53 -1,381.68 63 0.00 1,307.56 546.21 -2,609.30 -755.53 0.00 -755.53 -1,409.58 64 0.00 1,307.56 546.21 -2,609.30 -755.53 0.00 -755.53 -1,437.84 65 0.00 1,307.56 546.21 -2,609.30 -755.53 0.00 -755.53 -1,466.46 66 0.00 1,307.56 546.21 -2,609.30 -755.53 0.00 -755.53 -1,495.47 67 0.00 1,307.56 546.21 -2,609.30 -755.53 0.00 -755.53 -1,524.85 68 0.00 1,307.56 546.21 -2,609.30 -755.53 0.00 -755.53 -1,554.61 69 0.00 1,307.56 546.21 -2,609.30 -755.53 0.00 -755.53 -1,584.76 70 0.00 1,307.56 546.21 -2,609.30 -755.53 0.00 -755.53 -1,615.31 71 0.00 1,307.56 546.21 -2,609.30 -755.53 0.00 -755.53 -1,646.25 72 0.00 1,307.56 546.21 -2,609.30 -755.53 0.00 -755.53 -1,677.60 73 0.00 1,386.01 487.98 -2,609.30 -735.31 0.00 -735.31 -1,709.35 74 0.00 1,386.01 487.98 -2,609.30 -735.31 0.00 -735.31 -1,741.26 75 0.00 1,386.01 487.98 -2,609.30 -735.31 0.00 -735.31 -1,773.58 76 0.00 1,386.01 487.98 -2,609.30 -735.31 0.00 -735.31 -1,806.33 77 0.00 1,386.01 487.98 -2,609.30 -735.31 0.00 -735.31 -1,839.50 78 0.00 1,386.01 487.98 -2,609.30 -735.31 0.00 -735.31 -1,873.11 79 0.00 1,386.01 487.98 -2,609.30 -735.31 0.00 -735.31 -1,907.15 80 0.00 1,386.01 487.98 -2,609.30 -735.31 0.00 -735.31 -1,941.64 81 0.00 1,386.01 487.98 -2,609.30 -735.31 0.00 -735.31 -1,976.58 82 0.00 1,386.01 487.98 -2,609.30 -735.31 0.00 -735.31 -2,011.98 83 0.00 1,386.01 487.98 -2,609.30 -735.31 0.00 -735.31 -2,047.84 84 0.00 1,386.01 487.98 -2,609.30 -735.31 0.00 -735.31 -2,084.16 85 0.00 1,469.17 453.13 -2,609.30 -687.00 0.00 -687.00 -2,120.96 86 0.00 1,469.17 453.13 -2,609.30 -687.00 0.00 -687.00 -2,157.61 87 0.00 1,469.17 453.13 -2,609.30 -687.00 0.00 -687.00 -2,194.74 88 0.00 1,469.17 453.13 -2,609.30 -687.00 0.00 -687.00 -2,232.35 89 0.00 1,469.17 453.13 -2,609.30 -687.00 0.00 -687.00 -2,270.45 90 0.00 1,469.17 453.13 -2,609.30 -687.00 0.00 -687.00 -2,309.05 91 0.00 1,469.17 453.13 -2,609.30 -687.00 0.00 -687.00 -2,348.16 92 0.00 1,469.17 453.13 -2,609.30 -687.00 0.00 -687.00 -2,387.77 93 0.00 1,469.17 453.13 -2,609.30 -687.00 0.00 -687.00 -2,427.90 94 0.00 1,469.17 453.13 -2,609.30 -687.00 0.00 -687.00 -2,468.56 95 0.00 146917 453.13 -2,609.30 -687.00 0.00 -687.00 -2,509.74 96 550,762.17 1,469.17 -44,666.95 -309526.03 202,257.58 0.00 202,257.58 -2,551.47 37 Funds Invested Interest Rate per Month -49,700.00 -49,342.16 1.31 -48,979.65 1.31 -48,612.41 1.31 -48,240.38 1.31 -47,863.49 1.31 -47,481.68 1.31 -47,094.89 1.31 -46,703.04 1.31 -46,306.09 1.31 -45,903.95 1.31 -45,496.57 1.31 -45,083.87 1.31 -44,675.77 1.31 -44,262.35 1.31 -43,843.53 1.31 -43,419.25 1.31 -42,989.42 1.31 -42,553.99 1.31 -42,112.87 1.31 -41,666.00 1.31 -41,213.30 1.31 -40,754.68 1.31 -40,290.08 1.31 -39,819.42 1.31 -41,272.21 1.31 -42,743.96 1.31 -44,234.92 1.31 -45,745.35 1.31 -47,275.48 1.31 -48,825.59 1.31 -50,395.93 1.31 -51,986.76 1.31 -53,598.36 1.31 -55,230.99 1.31 -56,884.94 1.31 -58,560.46 1.31 -60,190.49 1.31 -61,841.80 1.31 -63,514.66 1.31 -65,209.35 1.31 -66,926.16 1.31 -68,665.38 1.31 -70,427.30 1.31 -72,212.21 1.31 -74,020.43 1.31 -75,852.24 1.31 -77,707.96 1.31 -79,587.90 1.31 -81,461.02 1.31 -83,358.59 1.31 -85,280.93 1.31 -87,228.36 1.31 -89,201.21 1.31 -91,199.80 1.31 -93,224.48 1.31 -95,275.59 1.31 -97,353.46 1.31 -99,458.46 1.31 -101,590.93 1.31 -103,751.23 1.31 -105,860.91 1.31 38 -107,998.12 1.31 -110,163.22 1.31 -112,356.59 1.31 -114,578.58 1.31 -116,829.57 1.31 -119,109.94 1.31 -121,420.78 1.31 -123,760.36 1.31 -126,131.20 1.31 -128,532.97 1.31 -130,966.09 1.31 -133,410.76 1.31 -135,887.32 1.31 -138,396.22 1.31 -140,937.85 1.31 -143,512.67 1.31 -146,121.08 1.31 -148,763.54 1.31 -151,440.50 1.31 154,152.39 1.31 -156,899.67 1.31 -159,682.81 1.31 -162,502.28 1.31 -165,310.24 1.31 -168,154.85 1.31 -171,036.58 1.31 -173,955.93 1.31 -176,913.38 1.31 -179,909.43 1.31 -182,944.58 1.31 -186,019.35 1.31 -189,134.25 1.31 -192,289.80 1.31 -195,486.55 1.31 0.35 1.31 Ames a39 Month Contribution Tax Saved or Interest on Funds Invested Interest Rate Annual Interest Number or Withdrawl Paid Savings per Month 0 49,700.00 49,700.00 1 -1,006.52 0.00 1,151.04 49,844.52 2.32 0.00 2 -1,006.52 0.00 1,154.38 49,992.39 2.32 0.00 3 -1,006.52 0.00 1,157.81 50,143.68 2.32 0.00 4 -1,006.52 0.00 1,161.31 50,298.48 2.32 0.00 5 -1,006.52 0.00 1,164.90 50,456.86 2.32 0.00 6 -1,006.52 0.00 1,168.57 50,618.91 2.32 0.00 7 -1,006.52 0.00 1,172.32 50,784.71 2.32 0.00 8 -1,006.52 0.00 1,176.16 50,954.35 2.32 0.00 9 -1,006.52 0.00 1,180.09 51,127.92 2.32 0.00 10 -1,006.52 0.00 1,184.11 51,305.51 2.32 0.00 11 -1,006.52 0.00 1,188.22 51,487.22 2.32 0.00 12 -1,006.52 -5,923.90 1,192.43 45,749.23 2.32 14,051.34 13 -996.53 0.00 1,059.34 45,812.24 2.32 0.00 14 -996.53 0.00 1,061.00 45,876.72 2.32 0.00 15 -996.53 0.00 1,062.49 45,942.68 2.32 0.00 16 -996.53 0.00 1,064.02 46,010.18 2.32 0.00 17 -996.53 0.00 1,065.58 46,079.23 2.32 0.00 18 -996.53 0.00 1,067.18 46,149.89 2.32 0.00 19 -996.53 0.00 1,068.82 46,222.18 2.32 0.00 20 -996.53 0.00 1,070.49 46,296.15 2.32 0.00 21 -996.53 0.00 1,072.21 46,371.83 2.32 0.00 22 -996.53 0.00 1,073.96 46,449.27 2.32 0.00 23 -996.53 0.00 1,075.75 46,528.49 2.32 0.00 24 -996.53 -5,717.03 1,077.59 40,892.52 2.32 12,818.63 25 933.07 0.00 947.06 42,772.65 2.32 0.00 26 933.07 0.00 990.60 44,696.33 2.32 0.00 27 933.07 0.00 1,035.15 46,664.55 2.32 0.00 28 933.07 0.00 1,080.74 48,678.37 2.32 0.00 29 933.07 0.00 1,127.38 50,738.82 2.32 0.00 30 933.07 0.00 1,175.10 52,846.99 2.32 0.00 31 933.07 0.00 1,223.92 55,003.98 2.32 0.00 32 933.07 0.00 1,273.88 57,210.93 2.32 0.00 33 933.07 0.00 1,324.99 59,468.99 2.32 0.00 34 933.07 0.00 1,377.29 61,779.35 2.32 0.00 35 933.07 0.00 1,430.79 64,143.22 2.32 0.00 36 933.07 -6,519.13 1,485.54 60,042.70 2.32 14,472.43 37 865.71 0.00 1,390.57 62,298.98 2.32 0.00 38 865.71 0.00 1,442.83 64,607.51 2.32 0.00 39 865.71 0.00 1,496.29 66,969.51 2.32 0.00 40 865.71 0.00 1,550.99 69,386.21 2.32 0.00 41 865.71 0.00 1,606.97 71,858.88 2.32 0.00 42 865.71 0.00 1,664.23 74,388.82 2.32 0.00 43 865.71 0.00 1,722.82 76,977.35 2.32 0.00 44 865.71 0.00 1,782.77 79,625.83 2.32 0.00 45 865.71 0.00 1,844.11 82,335.65 2.32 0.00 46 865.71 0.00 1,906.87 85,108.23 2.32 0.00 47 865.71 0.00 1,971.08 87,945.01 2.32 0.00 48 865.71 -9,401.92 2,036.78 81,445.59 2.32 20,416.33 49 834.35 0.00 1,886.26 84,166.19 2.32 0.00 50 834.35 0.00 1,949.27 86,949.81 2.32 0.00 51 834.35 0.00 2,013.73 8,9.89 2.32 0.00 52 834.35 0.00 2,079.69 92,711.94 2.32 0.00 53 834.35 0.00 2,147.18 95,693.47 2.32 0.00 54 834.35 0.00 2,216.23 98,744.06 2.32 0.00 55 834.35 0.00 2,286.88 101,865.29 2.32 0.00 56 834.35 0.00 2,359.17 105,058.82 2.32 0.00 57 834.35 0.00 2,433.13 108,326.30 2.32 0.00 58 834.35 0.00 2,508.81 111,669.46 2.32 0.00 59 834.35 0.00 2,586.23 115,090.04 2.32 0.00 60 834.35 -13,159.04 2,665.45 105,430.80 2.32 27,132.05 40 61 755.53 0.00 2,441.75 108,628.08 2.32 0.00 62 755.53 0.00 2,515.80 111,899.40 2.32 0.00 63 755.53 0.00 2,591.56 111,246.48 2.32 0.00 64 755.53 0.00 2,669.08 118,671.09 2.32 0.00 65 755.53 0.00 2,748.39 122,175.00 2.32 0.00 66 755.53 0.00 2,829.54 125,760.07 2.32 0.00 67 755.53 0.00 2,912.57 129,428.16 2.32 0.00 68 755.53 0.00 2,997.52 133,181.21 2.32 0.00 69 755.53 0.00 3,084.44 137,021.17 2.32 0.00 70 755.53 0.00 3,173.37 140,950.07 2.32 0.00 71 755.53 0.00 3,264.36 144,969.96 2.32 0.00 72 755.53 -16,774.13 3,357.46 132,308.82 2.32 34,585.83 73 735.31 0.00 3,064.23 136,108.36 2.32 0.00 74 735.31 0.00 3,152.23 139,995.90 2.32 0.00 75 735.31 0.00 3,242.27 143,973.47 2.32 0.00 76 735.31 0.00 3,334.38 148,043.17 2.32 0.00 77 735.31 0.00 3,428.64 152,207.11 2.32 0.00 78 735.31 0.00 3,525.07 156,467.49 2.32 0.00 79 735.31 0.00 3,623.74 160,826.54 2.32 0.00 80 735.31 0.00 3,724.70 165,286.55 2.32 0.00 81 735.31 0.00 3,827.99 169,849.85 2.32 0.00 82 735.31 0.00 3,933.67 174,518.83 2.32 0.00 83 735.31 0.00 4,041.81 179,295.94 2.32 0.00 84 735.31 -20,879.82 4,152.44 163,303.87 2.32 43,051.18 85 687.00 0.00 3,782.07 167,772.94 2.32 0.00 86 687.00 0.00 3,885.57 172,345.51 2.32 0.00 87 687.00 0.00 3,991.47 177,023.98 2.32 0.00 88 687.00 0.00 4,099.83 181,810.80 2.32 0.00 89 687.00 0.00 4,210.69 186,708.49 2.32 0.00 90 687.00 0.00 4,324.14 191,719.60 2.32 0.00 91 687.00 0.00 4,440.17 196,846.77 2.32 0.00 92 687.00 0.00 4,558.92 202,092.68 -2.32 0.00 93 687.00 0.00 4,680.41 207,460.09 2.32 0.00 94 687.00 0.00 4,804.72 212,951.80 2.32 0.00 95 687.00 0.00 4,931.90 218,570.70 2.32 0.00 96 -198,038.37 -25,594.37 5,062.04 0.00 2.32 52,771.90

Claims (36)

1. A method of operating a computer to predict asset performance, comprising the steps of: 5 storing historical data concerning a class of assets In computer memory; modelling the historical data; analysing errors between historical and modelled data to determine their distribution; generating a large number of sets of data modelling the future behaviour 10 of the data taking account of the analysed error distributions; inputting specific asset data; inputting desired outcomes from the specific asset; calculating the likelihood of the desired outcomes from the large number of sets of outcomes; and, 15 outputting tle likelihood.

2. A method of operating a computer according to claim 1, wherein the class of assets is the housing market and the specific asset is a real estate property. 20

3. A method of operating a computer according to claim 2, wherein the historical data includes: consumer price inflation, house price growth, 25 the short term cash rate or the 90 day bank bill rate and the rental rate.

4. A method of operating a computer according to claim 3, wherein the historical data also includes: 30 average weekly wages inflation, average vacancy rate inflation, average construction or building cost Inflation, and a taxation rate change indicator. 13

5. A method of operating a computer according to claim 3 or 4, wherein the historical data is modelled for the specific real estate property location, that is, the Town, Suburb or Postcode or Zip code. 5

6. A method of Operating a computer according to any one of claims 2 to 6, wherein the modelling step generates possible futures derived from statistical trends and relationships revealed in the historical data.

7. A method of operating a computer according to any one of claims 2 to 6, 10 wherein the generating step Includes use of random components to produce a range of possible outcomes.

8. A method of operating a computer according to claim 7. wherein a set of about 1,000 possible outcomes or more is produced. 15

9. A method of operating a computer according to any one of claims 2 to 8, wherein the outputting step includes providing to the user information concerning one or more of: 2 what at any chance or probability the return is likely to be given the 20 income and tax situation of the user; " a distribution of return outcomes so that the user can Identify at what confidence or chance the return will not be less than the return being set as the required return from the investment; " what a return means at a given confidence in terms of having invested in 25 an asset which is easily understood, that is a bank deposit; " what chance or probability there is of the user having to contribute additional cash to the investment to support It. The amount required being an amount which Is above the amount which is put to the system as being acceptable; 30 * what the cash flow obligations are likely to exceed over the entire investment period at a given probability or chance; * what the net cash receipt is likely to be at a given chance or probability at any given year or period should the asset be sold. 35

10. A computer system programmed for predicting asset performance, comprising: 14 a computer memory to store historical data concerning a class of assets; a user interface to input specific asset data and desired outcomes from the specific asset; a computer processor to: 5 access the historical data from memory and the specific asset data Input; model the historical data; analyse errors between historical and modelled data to determine their distribution; 10 generate a large number of sets of data modelling the future behaviour of the data taking account of the analysed error distributions; calculate the likelihood of the desired outcomes from the large number of sets of outcomes; and, output the likelihood to the user interface. 15 1i.

A computer system according to claim 10, wherein the class of assets Is the housing market and the specific asset Is a real estate property.

12. A computer system according to claim 11, wherein the historical data 20 Includes: consumer price inflation, house price growth, the short term cash rate or the 90 day bank bill rate and the rental rate. 25

13. A computer system according to claim 12, wherein the historical data also includes: average weekly wages inflation, average vacancy rate inflation, 30 average construction or building cost Inflation, and a taxation rate change indicator.

14. A computer system according to claim 12 or 13, wherein the processor models the historical data for the specific real estate property location, that Is, 35 the Town, Suburb or Postcode or Zip code. 15

15. A computer system according to any one of claims 11 to 14, wherein the processor models possible futures derived from statistical trends and relationships revealed In the historical data. 5

16. A computer system according to any one of claims 11 to 15, wherein the processor generates the large number of sets using random components to produce a range of possible outcomes.

17. A computer system according to claim 18, wherein a set of about 1,000 10 possible outcomes or more is produced.

18. A computer system according to any one of claims 11 to 17, wherein the processor outputs Information concerning one or more of e what at any chance or probability the return is likely to be given the 15 income and tax situation of the user; " a distribution of return outcomes so that the user can identify at what confidence or chance the return will not be less than the retum being set as the required return from the Investment a what a return means at a given confidence in terms of having invested in 20 an asset which is easily understood, that Is a bank deposit; " what chance or probability there is of the user having to contribute additional cash to the investment to support it. The amount required being an amount which is above the amount which is put to the system as being acceptable; 25 a what the cash flow obligations are likely to exceed over the entire Investment period at a given probability or chance; " what the net cash receipt is likely to be at a given chance or probability at any given year or period should the asset be sold. 30

19. A software program for controlling a computer comprising a memory in which historical data concerning a class of assets is stored, a user interface to receive specific asset data and output data, and a processor; wherein the processor operates under the control of the software program to: model the historical data; 35 analyse errors between historical and modelled data to determine their distribution; 16 generate a large number of sets of data modelling the future behaviour of the data taking account of the analysed error distributions; calculate the likelihood of the desired outcomes from the large number of sets of outcomes; and, 5 output the likelihood to the user interface.

20. A software program according to claim 19, wherein the class of assets is the housing market and the specific asset is a real estate property. 10

21. A software program according to claim 20, wherein the historical data Includes: consumer price inflation, house price growth, the short term cash rate or the 90 day bank bill rate and 15 the rental rate.

22. A software program according to claim 21, wherein the historical data also Includes: average weekly wages inflation. 20 average vacancy rate inflation, average construction or building cost Inflation, and a taxation rate change indicator.

23. A software program according to claim 21 or 22, wherein the processor 25 operates under the control of the program to model the historical data for the specific meal estate property location, that is, the Town, Suburb or Postcode or Zip code.

24. A software program according to any one of claims 20 to 23, wherein the 30 processor operates under the control of the program to model possible futures derived from statistical trends and relationships revealed in the historical data.

25. A software program according to any one of claims 20 to 24, wherein the processor operates under the control of the program to generate the large 35 number of sets using random components to produce a range of possible outcomes. 17

26. A software program according to claim 25, wherein a set of about 1,000 possible outcomes or more is produced. 5

27. A software program according to any one of claims 20 to 28, wherein the processor operates under the control of the program to output information concerning one or more of: a what at any chance or probability the return Is likely to be given the income and tax situation of the user; 10 * a distribution of return outcomes so that the user can identify at what confidence or chance the return will not be less than the return being set as the required return from the investment; * what a return means at a given confidence in terms of having invested In an asset which is easily understood, that Is a bank deposit; 15 e what chance or probability there is of the user having to contribute additional cash to the investment to support it. The amount required being an amount which is above the amount which is put to the system as being acceptable; * what the cash flow obligations are likely to exceed over the entire 20 investment period at a given probability or chance; - what the net cash receipt is likely to be at a given chance or probability at any given year or period should the asset be sold.

28. A method for predicting asset performance, comprising the steps of: 25 collecting historical data concerning a class of assets; modelling the historical data; analysing errors between historical and modelled data to determine their distribution; generating a large number of sets of data modelling the future behaviour 30 of the data taking account of the analysed error distributions; inputting specific asset data; inputting desired outcomes from the specific asset; calculating the likelihood of the desired outcomes from the large number of sets of outcomes; 35 outputting the likelihood. is

29. A method according to claim 28, wherein the class of assets is the housing market and the specific asset is a real estate property.

30. A method according to claim 29, wherein the historical data includes: 5 consumer price inflation, house price growth, the short term cash rate or the 90 day bank bill rate and the rental rate. 10

31. A method according to claim 30, wherein the historical data also includes: average weekly wages inflation, average vacancy rate inflation, average construction or building cost inflation, and 15 a taxation rate change indicator.

32. A method according to claim 30 or 31, wherein the historical data is modelled for the specific real estate property location, that is, the Town, Suburb or Postcode or Zip code. 20

33. A method according to any one of claimed 29 to 32, wherein the modelling step generates possible futures derived from statistical trends and relationships revealed in the historical data. 25

34. A method according to any one of claims 29 to 33, wherein the generating step includes use of random components to produce a range of possible outcomes.

35. A method according to claim 34, wherein a set of about 1,000 possible 30 outcomes or more is produced.

36. A method according to any one of claims 29 to 35, wherein the outputting step includes providing to the user information concerning one or more of: 35 * what at any chance or probability the return is likely to be given the income and tax situation of the user; 19 " a distribution of return outcomes so that the user can identify at what confidence or chance the return will not be less than the return being set as the required return from the investment; " what a return means at a given confidence in terms of having invested In 5 an asset which is easily understood, that is a bank deposit; " what chance or probability there is of the user having to contribute additional cash to the investment to support It. The amount required being an amount which is above the amount which is put to the system as being acceptable; 10 9 what the eash flow obligations are likely to exceed over the entire investment period at a given probability or chance; " what the net cash receipt is likely to be at a given chance or probability at any given year or period should the asset be sold. Dated this twenty eighth day of August 2003 Residex Pty Umited Patent Attorneys for the Applicant: F B RICE & CO