WO2018179938A1

WO2018179938A1 - Risk assessment device, risk assessment method, and risk assessment program

Info

Publication number: WO2018179938A1
Application number: PCT/JP2018/005029
Authority: WO
Inventors: 見田哲也; ホウアラン
Original assignee: 株式会社テイエルブイ
Priority date: 2017-03-30
Filing date: 2018-02-14
Publication date: 2018-10-04
Also published as: JPWO2018179938A1; JP6454826B1

Abstract

A risk assessment device equipped with a processing device group calculation unit (34) for calculating the failure occurrence probability of a processing device group which includes one piping system and a plurality of processing devices provided in the piping system, wherein the processing device group calculation unit (34) is equipped with: a calculation method storage unit (341) for storing a failure occurrence probability calculation method which corresponds to the positional relationship between the processing devices which constitute the processing device group; an individual probability acquisition unit (342) for acquiring an individual probability, which is the failure occurrence probability of each of the target processing devices, which are the processing devices of a target processing device group being targeted; a positional relationship acquisition unit (343) which acquires the target positional relationship, which is the positional relationship between the target processing devices in the target processing device group; and a failure occurrence probability calculation unit (344) which, on the basis of the calculation method that corresponds to the target positional relationship, calculates the target failure occurrence probability, which is the failure occurrence probability of the target processing device group, by using the acquired individual probabilities.

Description

Risk assessment device, risk assessment method, and risk assessment program

This disclosure relates to a risk evaluation device, a risk evaluation method, and a risk evaluation program for risk evaluation of a steam plant.

In recent years, risk assessment using a so-called RBI (Risk-Based Inspection) method that takes risks into account has been performed in large facilities such as petrochemical plants and thermal power plants (Note that the RBI-based assessment method is API ( It has been standardized as API581 in American Petroleum Institute)). As a risk evaluation means of this type, Japanese Patent No. 5884000 (Patent Document 1) describes each probability in a steam plant on a risk matrix in which a failure occurrence probability and a degree of influence when a failure occurs are set on two axes. It is disclosed that a plot diagram in which a set of a failure occurrence probability and an influence degree related to a process device is plotted is created, and risk assessment of a target plant is performed from the plot diagram.

Japanese Patent No. 5884000

However, the conventional risk evaluation means only calculates the failure occurrence probability of each process device, and is considered to calculate the failure occurrence probability for the entire group of process devices provided in the same piping system. Absent.

Therefore, it is desired to realize a risk evaluation device, a risk evaluation method, and a risk evaluation program that can calculate the failure occurrence probability of a process device group including a plurality of process devices.

The risk assessment device according to the present disclosure is:
A risk assessment device for risk assessment of a steam plant,
A process device group calculation unit that calculates a failure occurrence probability of a process device group including one piping system and a plurality of process devices provided in the piping system;
The process equipment group computing unit is
A calculation method storage unit that stores a calculation method of a failure occurrence probability according to the arrangement relationship between the process devices constituting the process device group;
An individual probability acquisition unit that acquires an individual probability that is a failure occurrence probability for each target process device that is a process device in the target target process device group;
An arrangement relationship acquisition unit that acquires a target arrangement relationship that is an arrangement relationship of each target process device in the target process device group;
A failure occurrence probability calculation unit that calculates a target failure occurrence probability that is a failure occurrence probability of the target process device group using the acquired individual probabilities based on the calculation method corresponding to the target arrangement relationship.

According to this configuration, since a calculation method corresponding to the arrangement relationship of each process device in the process device group is established in advance, and the failure occurrence probability of the process device group is calculated using this calculation method, the failure of the process device group The occurrence probability can be suitably calculated.

Hereinafter, a preferable aspect of the risk evaluation apparatus according to the present disclosure will be described. However, the scope of the present disclosure is not limited by the preferred embodiments described below.

As one aspect, the calculation method storage unit stores, as the calculation method, a parallel calculation method when the process devices are in a parallel relationship and a serial calculation method when the process devices are in a serial relationship. It is preferable that

According to this configuration, since different calculation methods are stored on a simple basis as to whether the process devices are in a parallel relationship or a serial relationship, the failure occurrence probability of the process device group can be calculated very easily. .

As one aspect, the arrangement relationship acquisition unit includes a plurality of parallel device groups that are a group of the target process devices in a parallel arrangement relationship, or the parallel device group exists and is included in the parallel device group. When there is a complicated relationship that exists when there is another target process device that is not present, the target arrangement relationship is specified as one or a plurality of the parallel device groups, and each of the parallel device groups or the parallel device group The other target process devices are identified as a series device group, and the failure occurrence probability calculation unit, when the complex relationship exists, based on the parallel calculation method, of the target process devices constituting the parallel device group Using each individual probability, the failure occurrence probability for the parallel device group is calculated, and based on the serial calculation method, each failure occurrence probability of the parallel device group or 1 or Using individual probabilities of a plurality of the parallel group of devices failure probability and other of the target process equipment, by calculating the failure probability of the series equipment group, it is preferable to calculate the target fault occurrence probability.

As one aspect, the arrangement relationship acquisition unit includes a group of parallel devices that are a group of the target process devices in a parallel arrangement relationship, and the group of the arrangement devices in a series arrangement relationship with each other in the parallel device group. When one or more sub-series device groups that are target process devices exist, the parallel device group and the sub-series device group are specified as the target arrangement relationship, and the failure occurrence probability calculation unit When there is a group and the sub-series device group, based on the serial calculation method, using each individual probability of the target process device constituting the sub-series device group, about one or a plurality of the sub-series device group The failure occurrence probability is calculated, and the failure occurrence probability for the parallel device group is calculated using the failure occurrence probability for the one or more sub-series device groups based on the parallel calculation method. It is preferable to calculate.

According to this configuration, even when there is a complicated arrangement relationship in which a parallel relationship and a serial relationship are mixed, the failure occurrence probability of the process equipment group can be calculated with high reproducibility.

As one aspect, when there is a parallel device group that is a group of the target process devices in a parallel placement relationship, the placement relationship acquisition unit is required to perform the performance of the target process device that constitutes the parallel device group. When the performance of all the target process devices on one side in a parallel relationship does not satisfy the required performance, the parallel device group is determined as the target placement relationship. It is preferable to specify that the target process equipment to be configured has a serial relationship.

According to this configuration, even if there is a parallel relationship in reality, even if it does not function as a parallel device due to performance problems, the failure occurrence probability of the process equipment group can be calculated by reflecting this. .

As one aspect, a steam utilization device group computing unit that computes a failure occurrence probability of a group of steam utilization devices including a steam utilization device utilizing steam and a plurality of the process device groups related to the steam utilization device And the steam using device group calculation unit obtains the target failure occurrence probability of each process device group constituting the target target steam using device group calculated by the process device group calculating unit. The target steam using the acquisition unit, the steam use device acquisition unit for acquiring the failure occurrence probability of the steam use device in the target steam use device group, and the acquired target failure occurrence probability and the failure occurrence probability of the steam use device It is preferable to include a failure occurrence probability calculating unit that calculates the failure occurrence probability of the user equipment group.

According to this configuration, it is possible to calculate not only the process equipment group but also the failure occurrence probability of the entire steam equipment group including the steam equipment.

As one aspect, the steam utilization device acquisition unit acquires the failure occurrence probability calculated by the steam utilization device calculation unit that calculates the failure occurrence probability of the steam utilization device in the target steam utilization device group, Based on the calculated target failure curve, the target failure curve calculation unit is a target failure curve calculation unit that calculates a target failure curve indicating a change in failure occurrence probability with respect to time for the target target steam utilization device, A failure occurrence probability calculating unit that calculates a failure occurrence probability of the target steam using device, and the target failure curve calculating unit stores parameters for calculating a target failure curve for each type of steam using device. A parameter acquisition unit that acquires a calculation parameter corresponding to the target steam-using device from a storage unit, and the target reason based on the calculation parameter A failure curve calculation unit for calculating a curve, when provided with a suitable.

According to this configuration, it is possible to suitably calculate the failure occurrence probability of each steam using device using a storage unit such as a database that stores parameters for calculating the failure curve of the steam using device.

As one aspect, the steam utilization device calculation unit stores, for each type of steam utilization device, a correction item that is an item related to the use state of the steam utilization device and a correction method corresponding thereto. A correction item acquisition unit that acquires the correction item for the target steam-using device, and a parameter correction unit that corrects the calculation parameter based on the correction method corresponding to the acquired correction item. The failure curve calculation unit preferably calculates the target failure curve based on the calculation parameters corrected by the parameter correction unit.

According to this configuration, since the parameters are corrected according to the actual situation of each steam using device, the failure occurrence probability according to each steam using device can be calculated.

The risk assessment method according to this disclosure is:
A risk assessment method for risk assessment of a steam plant to be executed by a computer,
A process device group calculation step for calculating a failure occurrence probability of a process device group including one piping system and a plurality of process devices provided in the piping system;
The process equipment group calculation step is:
A calculation method storage step of storing a calculation method of a failure occurrence probability according to the arrangement relationship between the process devices constituting the process device group;
An individual probability acquisition step of acquiring an individual probability that is a failure occurrence probability for each target process device that is a process device in a target target process device group;
An arrangement relationship acquisition step of acquiring a target arrangement relationship that is an arrangement relationship of each target process device in the target process equipment group;
And a failure occurrence probability calculation step of calculating a target failure occurrence probability that is a failure occurrence probability of the target process equipment group using the acquired individual probabilities based on the calculation method corresponding to the target arrangement relationship.

The risk assessment program for this disclosure
A risk assessment program for risk assessment of a steam plant to be executed by a computer,
In the computer,
Realizing a process device group calculation function for calculating a failure occurrence probability of a process device group including one piping system and a plurality of process devices provided in the piping system,
In the process equipment group calculation function,
A calculation method storage function for storing a calculation method of a failure occurrence probability in accordance with the arrangement relationship between the process devices constituting the process device group;
An individual probability acquisition function for acquiring an individual probability that is a failure occurrence probability for each target process device that is a process device in the target target process device group;
An arrangement relationship acquisition function for acquiring a target arrangement relationship that is an arrangement relationship of each of the target process devices in the target process device group;
Based on the calculation method corresponding to the target arrangement relationship, a failure occurrence probability calculation function that calculates a target failure occurrence probability that is a failure occurrence probability of the target process equipment group using each acquired individual probability;
Is realized on a computer.

According to these configurations, it is possible to obtain the same operational effects as the risk evaluation apparatus described above.

Schematic configuration diagram of a plant monitoring system according to the present embodiment Block diagram of risk assessment device Process equipment block diagram Block diagram of process equipment group calculation unit Block diagram of the steam equipment calculation unit Block diagram of the steam equipment group computing unit Graph showing an example of a failure curve obtained by the process equipment calculation unit Graph showing an example of the effect on the failure curve when parameters are corrected Schematic showing an example of steam-using equipment group Diagram showing an example of risk matrix Diagram showing an example of risk matrix Diagram showing an example of risk matrix Diagram showing an example of risk matrix

DETAILED DESCRIPTION Embodiments of a risk evaluation device, a risk evaluation method, and a risk evaluation program according to the present disclosure will be described with reference to the drawings. Below, the example which incorporated the risk evaluation apparatus which concerns on this embodiment in the plant monitoring system which monitors the steam plants 2 using steam, such as a petrochemical plant and a thermal power plant, is demonstrated. First, as shown in FIG. 1, in the plant monitoring system according to the present embodiment, data from various steam plants 2 to be monitored by the monitoring server 3 is collected via a network 5, and the collected data is externally transmitted. It is stored cumulatively in the database server 4. The monitoring server 3 performs analysis and determination based on collected data and data stored in the database server 4 periodically or in response to an instruction from a user or an administrator. Is transmitted to the user terminal 1 such as a PC or a smartphone, or when the user accesses the monitoring server 3 via the user terminal 1, the state of the steam plant 2 is indicated to the user. Further, the results of analysis and determination are stored in the database server 4 for further analysis and determination. In the present embodiment, the “piping system” is a concept including the entire steam system including, for example, a steam trap, steam piping, various valves, and the like. Further, when such an entire steam system is regarded as one of important assets, the risk evaluation apparatus, the risk evaluation method, and the risk evaluation program according to the present embodiment can be applied as one of asset management methods. .

An example of the data collected by the monitoring server 3 will be described. The monitoring device 21 is configured such that the monitoring device 21 includes a sensor provided in each component constituting the component group 22 or a portable type from each component group 22 of the steam plant 2. Sensor data (pressure, current value, vibration, ultrasonic wave, temperature, device rotation speed, etc.) obtained by inspection with an inspection device and events (operation start / stop, failure occurrence and type, repair) that occurred in each component And event data related to maintenance such as device replacement), and the collected data is transmitted to the monitoring server 3 regularly or continuously. The components of the steam plant 2 include steam-utilizing equipment that uses steam, such as turbines, compressors, and heat exchangers, transport pipes that transport steam to steam-using equipment, and drain pipes that discharge drain generated from steam-using equipment. Piping systems, steam traps provided in the piping systems, control valves, pumps, filters, separators and other process equipment. Data related to these (the sensor data and event data described above) is collected by the monitoring device 21, and each data is periodically transmitted to the monitoring server 3 together with identification information and time attached to each component.

In other words, for each steam plant 2 to be monitored, the monitoring server 3 changes the sensor value, whether it is in operation, when it has failed, what kind of failure has occurred for each component of the steam plant 2 Data is collected on when and when maintenance was performed. And these collected data are stored in the database server 4 in an accumulated manner, so that for each successive component in the steam plant 2, the transition of the sensor value, the type of failure that occurred, the number of years until failure, Information such as the presence / absence of maintenance, the timing, and the number of times is stored in the database server 4.

More specifically, the database server 4 associates the identification information of each component with these data, information related to the piping system in which each component is provided (corresponding to a piping system-related item described later), Information related to the component itself, such as type (float type, mechanical type, thermostatic type, thermodynamic type, etc. in the case of steam traps), performance, installation years, and additional configuration provided for the component (Corresponding to equipment-related items described later) and information related to work performed on process equipment (corresponding to work-related items described later) are stored in an accumulated manner. Further, a process equipment group including a pipe system such as steam traps 223A to 223C (or 223D to 223F) provided in the same pipe 222A (or 222B) as shown in FIG. 9 and a plurality of process equipment provided in the pipe system. (224A and 224B in FIG. 9), the steam utilization device 221 and the component group 22 including the steam traps 223A to 223F provided in the

pipes

222A and 222B connected to the steam utilization device 221 and the steam utilization device. It is necessary to handle a group of devices that are related to each other, such as a steam utilization device group composed of a plurality of process device groups. Therefore, in the database server 4, not only individual components but also identification information is assigned to each device group such as a process device group and a steam utilization device group, and each of the process device group and the steam utilization device group is configured together with the identification information. The identification information of the component, the mutual arrangement relationship of the components constituting the target device group, and the like are also stored. Since the amount of data collected in this way is enormous, in this embodiment, the database server 4 outside the monitoring server 3 is used to store such data. The form of the database server 4 is not particularly limited, and a server device connected to the monitoring server 3 via a wired or wireless connection may be used, or a cloud server on a cloud environment may be used.

In this embodiment, the monitoring server 3 can evaluate the inherent risk of the target steam plant 2 by using the data of each successive component stored in the database server 4 as well as the steam plant 2. It is like that. Specifically, as risk evaluation, information on the device group to be evaluated is received from the user, the failure occurrence probability regarding the acquired device group and the influence level when the failure occurs are calculated and used as an RBI evaluation method. The failure occurrence probability and the degree of influence calculated on a risk matrix in which the failure occurrence probability and the degree of influence when a failure occurs are set on two axes are plotted and provided to the user. Then, the user can know the risks inherent in the components to be evaluated from the risk matrix, and performs risk evaluation on the steam plant 2. Hereinafter, the structure for performing this risk evaluation among the structures with which the monitoring server 3 is provided is demonstrated.

First, the monitoring server 3 is a general server device, and includes a communication interface for performing communication via the network 5, an input / output device for directly inputting / outputting data to / from the server device, It has a general hardware configuration such as a CPU that controls each unit of the server device, an HDD that is a large-capacity storage device that stores various data and programs, and a memory that temporarily stores programs to be executed. In the present embodiment, a risk evaluation program for performing processing to be described later is stored in the HDD, and the risk evaluation program temporarily stored in the memory is executed by the CPU, whereby each unit of the monitoring server 3 is 2 to 6 function as a risk evaluation apparatus including the functional units.

Specifically, in the present embodiment, when the risk evaluation program is executed, the monitoring server 3 receives a request from the user and transmits an evaluation result to the user, and a target device group The failure occurrence probability calculation processing unit 32 for calculating the failure occurrence probability, the influence calculation processing unit 37 for calculating the influence degree of the target device group, and the user based on the calculated failure occurrence probability and influence degree. The risk assessment apparatus includes a function unit of the display image calculation processing unit 38 that generates image data (FIG. 2). Hereinafter, each functional unit will be described.

First, the input / output processing unit 31 functions as an interface in the risk assessment device. Specifically, it accepts a request from a user and provides information necessary for processing in each functional unit included in the received request, together with an instruction for performing processing according to the request, to each functional unit, Further, the image data generated by the display image calculation processing unit 38 is output to the user. The information included in the request from the user includes the identification information of the device group to be evaluated, additional information about the device group to be evaluated, and the point in time when calculating the failure occurrence probability (current time or for several years in the future) Information on what risk matrix to display.

As shown in FIG. 2, the failure occurrence probability calculation processing unit 32 includes a process device calculation unit 33 that calculates the failure occurrence probability of each process device included in the target device group (steam utilization device group or the like), and a process device calculation. Based on the failure occurrence probability of each process device calculated by the unit 33, the process device group calculation unit 34 for calculating the failure occurrence probability of each process device group included in the target device group, and the steam included in the target device group The steam use device calculation unit 35 that calculates the failure occurrence probability of the use device, the failure occurrence probability of each process device group calculated by the process device group calculation unit 34, and the failure occurrence probability calculated by the steam use device calculation unit 35 And a calculation target device group calculation unit 36 for calculating a failure occurrence probability of the target device group.

As shown in FIG. 3, the process device calculation unit 33 is calculated with a target failure curve calculation unit 331 that calculates a target failure curve indicating a change in failure occurrence probability with respect to time for a target target process device. A failure occurrence probability calculation unit 339 for calculating a failure occurrence probability of the target process device based on the target failure curve, and a predetermined model for each process device and parameters in the model, each process A failure curve is calculated based on the parameters determined according to the device, and a failure occurrence probability is calculated based on the failure curve.

The target failure curve calculation unit 331 calculates a target failure curve, in order to calculate a target failure curve, a parameter storage unit 332, a calculation condition acquisition unit 333, a parameter acquisition unit 334, a correction method storage unit 335, a parameter correction unit 336, a failure curve A calculation unit 337 and a failure curve correction unit 338 are provided, and parameters corresponding to individual process devices to be calculated are obtained, and a target failure curve is calculated based on the parameters.

The parameter storage unit 332 calculates and stores parameters for calculating the target failure curve based on the calculation data of the database server 4. More specifically, for each type of process equipment, one or more parameters related to piping system related items, which are items related to the piping system in which the process equipment is provided, are calculated and stored. For this purpose, the parameter storage unit 332 includes a parameter calculation unit 332a that calculates parameters and a parameter storage unit 332b that stores the calculated parameters.

The parameter calculation unit 332a first acquires data from the database server 4 for parameter calculation. As described above, the database server 4 collects and stores information on each component for each steam plant 2 to store various information regarding a large number of process devices, and the parameter calculation unit 332a. As the calculation data used for the calculation in, for many process equipment, the model, the piping system related items that are items related to the piping system in which the process equipment is provided, the failure years that are the years until failure, Is stored for each process device. In this embodiment, items related to the usage pattern of the piping system are used as installation-related items. Specifically, as the usage pattern, the usage of the piping system (whether to transport steam to steam-using equipment or use steam) The drainage generated by the equipment or whether it is used in a trace), the size of the pressure of the flowing steam, the size of the diameter, the way the steam flows (whether the steam flows intermittently, the time change of the flow rate is Etc.) is used. The failure years are classified according to the type of failure, and the parameter calculation unit 332a acquires the model, piping system related items, and failure years for each type of failure.

The parameter calculation unit 332a acquires the calculation data from the database server 4 and evaluates the degree of influence of each piping system related item on the failure years for each type of failure for each type. The parameter is obtained by quantifying the degree of influence for each related item. For example, for piping system related items, for piping system usage and steam flow, parameters corresponding to each application and flow direction are obtained, and for the size and size of the steam pressure, the size and size A plurality of levels such as large, medium, and small are set for, and a parameter corresponding to each level is obtained. The parameter calculation method can be obtained using various statistical methods based on the calculation data, and examples thereof include statistical classification algorithms, regression analysis, and survival time analysis. In the present embodiment, the parameter calculation unit 332a uses survival time analysis as an example to calculate the parameters, and based on the piping system related items and the failure years of each process device in the calculation data, Lifetime analysis is performed with system-related items as covariates, the effect of piping-related items on the failure years is evaluated, and parameters are calculated. Examples of models used for the survival time analysis include various models such as a proportional hazard model and a Weibull distribution model.

In the parameter storage unit 332b, parameters corresponding to each piping system related item obtained by the parameter calculation unit 332a are stored for each type and type of failure as parameters for the calculation of the failure curve. That is, the parameter storage unit 332b stores one or more parameters corresponding to each piping system-related item for each type of failure for each type.

The calculation condition acquisition unit 333 acquires a model, a piping system related item, a device related item described later, and a work related item described later about the target process device. In the present embodiment, the calculation condition acquisition unit 333 acquires identification information about the target device group from the input / output processing unit 31, and each process device included in the device group corresponding to this identification information from the database server 4. Model type, piping system related items, equipment related items and work related items to be described later. In addition, the calculation condition acquisition unit 333 acquires the installation years of each process device from the database server 4 and calculates time point information (the current failure occurrence probability regarding the time point at which the target failure occurrence probability is calculated from the input / output processing unit 31. Or whether to calculate failure occurrence probabilities for multiple years from the present time to the future. In addition, when the failure type for obtaining the failure occurrence probability is instructed to the input / output processing unit 31, the calculation condition acquisition unit 333 also acquires the type of failure to be calculated.

The parameter acquisition unit 334 acquires a calculation parameter for deriving a target failure curve based on the acquired model and piping related items of the target process equipment and the parameters stored in the parameter storage unit 332. Thereby, the parameter according to the process equipment made into object is obtained. When the calculation condition acquisition unit 333 also acquires the type of failure to be calculated, the parameter acquisition unit 334 acquires a calculation parameter for the acquired failure type, and the calculation condition acquisition unit 333 determines that the failure When the type is not acquired, calculation parameters are acquired for all types of failure. The parameter acquisition unit 334 may only acquire the parameters corresponding to the piping system related items from the parameter storage unit 332 as calculation parameters, or may calculate the calculation parameters from the acquired parameters.

The correction method storage unit 335 stores a correction method corresponding to a device-related item related to the process device itself and a work-related item related to work performed on the process device. That is, the parameters acquired by the parameter acquisition unit 334 are based on piping system-related items, and the performance (capacity, etc.) of individual process devices and additional configurations (sensors, protections) provided for individual process devices. It does not reflect the actual situation of individual process equipment, such as covers and materials used. Therefore, in order to correct the parameters stored in the parameter storage unit 332 and the failure curve calculated based on the parameters according to the device-related items and work-related items that are individual circumstances of the target process device, correction is performed. The method storage unit 335 stores the correction method corresponding to each device-related item and each work-related item.

Equipment-related items include items related to additional configurations provided for the target process equipment (sensors, protective covers, presence / absence of equipment for automatic repair work, materials used, etc.), installation status of process equipment, Items related to performance (surrounding environment, location where water hammer is likely to occur, incorrect installation, capacity, etc.) are listed, and work related items include whether repair work has been performed, Examples include when repair work was performed, the type of repair work, and the degree of effect of the repair work performed. As described above, the calculation condition acquisition unit 333 acquires each device related item and each work related item for each target process device. Although the correction method is not particularly limited, for example, the calculation parameter is corrected by an appropriate calculation method such as multiplication or division by a value corresponding to each device-related item, or the time when the operation is performed is determined in advance. For example, the failure curve is corrected according to the calculation procedure.

The parameter correction unit 336 acquires a correction method corresponding to the acquired device-related item from the correction method storage unit 335, and corrects the calculation parameter acquired by the parameter acquisition unit 334 based on the acquired correction method. In other words, calculation parameters obtained based on objective piping system-related items related to process equipment are further corrected with equipment-related items related to subjective process equipment itself, so that it can be adapted to the actual situation of individual process equipment. Can be obtained. FIG. 8 shows an example of the case where the parameter for calculation is not corrected by the parameter correction unit 336.

The failure curve calculation unit 337 calculates a target failure curve as shown in FIG. 7, for example, based on a predetermined failure curve calculation model and corrected calculation parameters. As a model to be used, an appropriate cumulative probability distribution model based on normal distribution, Poisson distribution, Weibull distribution, or the like can be used. In addition, when calculating the failure occurrence probability for each type of failure, the failure curve calculation unit 337 calculates a target failure curve for each type of failure for the target process device.

The failure curve correction unit 338 corrects the target failure curve calculated by the failure curve calculation unit 337 based on work-related items that are items related to work performed on the process equipment. Specifically, when repair work has been performed, a correction method corresponding to the acquired work-related item is acquired from the correction method storage unit 335, and is calculated by the failure curve calculation unit 337 based on the acquired correction method. Correct the target failure curve.

The failure occurrence probability calculation unit 339 is based on the target failure curve calculated by the failure curve calculation unit 337 or the target failure curve corrected by the failure curve correction unit 338, and the calculation time point information acquired by the calculation condition acquisition unit 333. The failure occurrence probability is calculated for each process device. For example, when calculating the current failure occurrence probability, the failure occurrence probability calculation unit 339 obtains a failure occurrence probability corresponding to the installation year of the target process device from the target failure curve (see FIG. 7). Further, the failure occurrence probability calculation unit 339 calculates failure occurrence probabilities for a plurality of years from the present time to the future, based on the installation years of the target process equipment, one year later, two years later, etc. The failure occurrence probability corresponding to the year is obtained from the target failure curve. When calculating the failure occurrence probability for each type of failure, the failure occurrence probability calculation unit 339 calculates the failure occurrence probability for each type of failure based on each calculated target failure curve for the target process device. It has become.

As described above, in the process equipment computing unit 33,
(1) A parameter storage step for calculating and storing one or more parameters related to piping system-related items for calculation of the target failure curve based on the calculation data of the database server 4;
(2) a calculation condition acquisition step for acquiring a model, a piping system related item, a device related item, and a work related item for the target process device;
(3) a parameter acquisition step for acquiring a calculation parameter for deriving a target failure curve based on the acquired piping system related items for the target process equipment and the parameters stored in the parameter storage step;
(4) a parameter correction step for correcting the calculation parameter based on the correction method corresponding to the acquired device-related item;
(5) a failure curve calculation step of calculating a target failure curve based on the calculation parameters;
(6) a failure curve correction step for calculating a target failure curve based on the acquired work-related items;
(7) a failure occurrence probability calculating step of calculating a failure occurrence probability of the target process device based on the calculated target failure curve;
Is performed to calculate the failure occurrence probability for each target process device.

The process equipment group computing unit 34 computes the failure occurrence probability of a process equipment group consisting of one piping system and a plurality of process equipments provided in the piping system. In the present embodiment, the process equipment computing unit 33 Based on the failure occurrence probability of each process device calculated in step 1, the failure occurrence probability of the process device group is calculated. For this purpose, the process equipment group calculation unit 34 includes a calculation method storage unit 341, an individual probability acquisition unit 342, an arrangement relationship acquisition unit 343, and a failure occurrence probability calculation unit 344 (FIG. 4).

The calculation method storage unit 341 stores a calculation method of the failure occurrence probability according to the arrangement relationship between the process devices constituting the process device group. In the present embodiment, the calculation method storage unit 341 stores, as calculation methods, a parallel calculation method when the process devices are in a parallel relationship and a serial calculation method when the process devices are in a serial relationship. Yes. For example, in the present embodiment, as the parallel calculation method, the failure occurrence probability of the process device group is calculated by multiplying the failure occurrence probability of each process device in a parallel relationship, and as the serial calculation method, The maximum failure occurrence probability of the process equipment is obtained as the failure occurrence probability of the process equipment group.

The individual probability acquisition unit 342 acquires a failure occurrence probability (individual probability) for each process device (target process device) in the target target process device group. In the present embodiment, the process device calculation unit 33 The failure occurrence probability of each process device calculated in step 1 is acquired as an individual probability.

The arrangement relationship acquisition unit 343 acquires a target arrangement relationship that is an arrangement relationship of each target process device in the target process device group. In the present embodiment, the arrangement relationship acquisition unit 343 acquires identification information about a target device group from the input / output processing unit 31, and each process device included in the device group corresponding to the identification information from the database server 4. The group identification information, the identification information of each process device constituting each process device group, and the arrangement relationship of each process device in each process device group are acquired. In other words, the arrangement relationship acquisition unit 343 determines which process devices belong to the same process device group among the process devices whose individual probability acquisition unit 342 has acquired the failure occurrence probability, and how the process devices belonging to the same process device group are mutually related. To find out if there is a proper arrangement relationship.

The failure occurrence probability calculation unit 344 calculates the failure occurrence probability of the target process device group using each acquired individual probability based on the calculation method corresponding to the target arrangement relationship acquired by the arrangement relationship acquisition unit 343. . For example, when the process devices belonging to the target process device group are in a parallel relationship, the product of the individual probabilities is calculated as the failure occurrence probability of the target process device group, and the process devices belonging to the target process device group are connected in series. In the case of the relationship, the largest one of the individual probabilities is calculated as the failure occurrence probability of the target process equipment group. For example, when the individual probabilities are P ₁ , P ₂ , and P ₃ , according to the parallel calculation method, the failure occurrence probability P = (P ₁ × P ₂ × P ₃ ), and according to the serial calculation method, the failure occurrence Probability P = max (P ₁ , P ₂ , P ₃ ).

As shown in FIG. 9, depending on the process equipment group, a group of process equipments (hereinafter referred to as a parallel equipment group) in a parallel arrangement relationship. For example, a group consisting of the steam trap 223D and the steam trap 223E shown in FIG. ) And there are other target process devices (for example, the steam trap 223F shown in FIG. 9) that are not included in this parallel device group, or when there are a plurality of parallel device groups, the above parallel operation method and serial operation are performed. Failure probability cannot be calculated by only one of the methods. Therefore, in the present embodiment, when there is such a complicated relationship (a relationship in which the failure occurrence probability needs to be calculated by combining the parallel calculation method and the serial calculation method), the arrangement relationship acquisition unit 343 determines that the target arrangement relationship is as follows: First, one or a plurality of parallel device groups are specified, and each parallel device group or each parallel device group and another target process device are specified as a serial device group, with the parallel device group as a unit. Then, when there is a complicated relationship, the failure occurrence probability calculation unit 344 uses the individual probabilities of the target process devices constituting the parallel device group for each parallel device group based on the parallel calculation method. Based on the serial calculation method, the serial device uses each failure occurrence probability of the parallel device group or the failure occurrence probability of one or a plurality of parallel device groups and the individual probabilities of other target process devices. By calculating the failure probability of the group, the target failure occurrence probability is calculated.

For example, for the process equipment group 224B in FIG. 9, the placement relationship acquisition unit 343 first identifies the steam trap 223D and the steam trap 223E as parallel device groups as the target placement relationship, and the parallel device group and the steam trap. 223F is identified as the series device group. Then, assuming that the failure occurrence probabilities of the steam traps 223D to 223F are P _D , P _E , and P _F , the failure occurrence probability calculation unit 344 uses the parallel device group for the parallel device group including the steam trap 223D and the steam trap 223E. The failure occurrence probability P _{DE is obtained} by P _DE = (P _D × P _E ). Further, the failure occurrence probability calculation unit 344 calculates the failure occurrence probability P _DEF of the series device group including the steam trap 223D and the parallel device group of the steam trap 223E and the steam trap F as P _DEF = max ((P _D × P _E ) , P _F ), and this is calculated as the failure occurrence probability of the process equipment group 224B. When there are a plurality of parallel device groups, the failure occurrence probability calculation unit 344 obtains the failure occurrence probability for each parallel device group, and the obtained failure occurrence probability of each parallel device group and the target process device that does not belong to the parallel device group When there is, the serial operation method is applied based on the individual probability to obtain the failure occurrence probability.

Further, as in the process equipment group 224A of FIG. 9, there are parallel equipment groups (steam traps 223A to 223C), and a group of target process equipments (steam traps 223B) that are arranged in series with each other in the parallel equipment group. 223C, hereinafter referred to as a sub-series device group), even when one or a plurality of sub-series devices exist, the failure occurrence probability cannot be calculated by only one of the parallel calculation method and the serial calculation method. Therefore, in the present embodiment, when the parallel device group and the sub series device group exist in the target process device group, the target placement relationship acquisition unit 343 uses the parallel device group and the sub series device group as the target placement relationship. Identify. Then, when the parallel device group and the sub-series device group exist, the failure occurrence probability calculation unit 344 first uses the individual probabilities of the target process devices constituting the sub-series device group based on the serial calculation method, The failure occurrence probability for a plurality of sub-series device groups is calculated. Then, based on the parallel calculation method, if there is a failure occurrence probability for one or a plurality of sub-series device groups, or if there is a target process device that does not belong to the sub-series device group, the failure for the parallel device group using the individual probability Calculate the probability of occurrence.

For example, for the process equipment group 224A of FIG. 9, the target arrangement relationship acquisition unit 343 specifies the steam traps 223A to 223C as the parallel equipment group as the target arrangement relation, and further sets the steam traps 223B and 223C as sub-series equipment. Identify as a group. Then, _P the failure probability of the steam trap 223A ~ 223C respectively _A, P B, when the _{P C,} failure probability calculation unit 344, the sub serial device group consisting of steam traps 223B and steam traps 223C, sub-series equipment The group failure occurrence probability P _{BC is obtained} by P _BC = max (P _B , P _C ). Further, the failure occurrence probability calculating unit 344 obtains the failure occurrence probability P _ABC of the parallel device group composed of the steam traps 223A to 223C by P _ABC = (P _A × max (P _B , P _C )), and this is determined as a process device. Calculated as the failure occurrence probability of the group 224A. In addition, when a sub-series device group exists in each of the pipes in the parallel relationship in the parallel device group, the failure occurrence probability calculation unit 344 obtains the failure occurrence probability of each sub-series device group, and then the sub-series device group. As a unit, the failure occurrence probability of the parallel device group is obtained based on the parallel calculation method.

Moreover, even if a parallel device group exists, when one performance (capacity | capacity etc.) of the process equipment which comprises a parallel device group does not satisfy the performance requested | required by the relationship with the steam utilization apparatus applied (for example, In fact, when the capacity of the steam trap is insufficient compared to the amount of drain discharged from the steam-using equipment), in reality, even if it is in a parallel relationship, it does not function as a parallel thing. become. Therefore, when the parallel device group exists, the target arrangement relationship acquisition unit 343 determines whether the performance of the target process device constituting the parallel device group satisfies the required performance, and at least one side in the parallel relationship When the performance of all the target process devices does not satisfy the required performance, it is specified as the target arrangement relationship that the target process devices constituting the parallel device group are in a serial relationship.

For example, in the process equipment group 224B in FIG. 9, for the parallel equipment group composed of the steam trap 223D and the steam trap 223E, one of the steam trap 223D and the steam trap 223E does not satisfy the performance required in relation to the steam utilization equipment 221. In this case, the target arrangement relationship acquisition unit 343 specifies that the parallel device group including the steam trap 223D and the steam trap 223E is in a serial relationship. In this case, all the steam traps 223D to 223F in the process equipment group 224B are treated as being in a serial relationship, and the failure occurrence probability calculation unit 344 has a failure occurrence probability P _DEF = max (P _D , P _E of the process equipment group 224B. , P _F ). Further, in the process equipment group 224A in FIG. 9, when the performance of only the steam trap 223B or the steam trap 223C among the steam traps 223A to 223C does not satisfy the required performance, the target arrangement relationship acquisition unit 343 When the steam traps 223A to 223C are specified to be in parallel, but the performance of both the steam trap 223B and the steam trap 223C or the performance of the steam trap 223A does not satisfy the required performance, the steam in the process equipment group 224A The traps 223A to 223C are all treated as having a serial relationship, and the failure occurrence probability calculation unit 344 obtains the failure occurrence probability P _ABC = max (P _A , P _B , P _C ) of the process equipment group 224A.

As described above, in the process equipment group calculation unit 34,
(1) a calculation method storage step of storing a calculation method of a failure occurrence probability according to the arrangement relationship between the process devices constituting the process device group;
(2) An individual probability acquisition step of acquiring an individual probability that is a failure occurrence probability for each target process device that is a process device in a target target process device group;
(3) an arrangement relationship acquisition step of acquiring a target arrangement relationship that is an arrangement relationship of each target process device in the target process device group;
(4) A failure occurrence probability calculation step of calculating a target failure occurrence probability that is a failure occurrence probability of the target process equipment group using each acquired probability based on the calculation method corresponding to the target arrangement relationship;
And the failure occurrence probability for each target process device group is calculated.

The steam using device calculation unit 35 calculates the failure occurrence probability of the steam using device included in the target device group. In the present embodiment, for this purpose, the target steam using device with respect to the passage of time. A target failure curve calculation unit 351 that calculates a target failure curve indicating a change in failure occurrence probability, and a failure occurrence probability calculation unit 357 that calculates a failure occurrence probability of the target steam-using device based on the calculated target failure curve. (Fig. 5).

The target failure curve calculation unit 351 includes a calculation condition acquisition unit 352, a parameter acquisition unit 353, a correction method storage unit 354, a parameter correction unit 355, and a failure curve calculation unit 356 for calculating a target failure curve. A parameter corresponding to the steam utilization device to be calculated is obtained, and the target failure curve is calculated based on this parameter.

The calculation condition acquisition unit 352 includes calculation time point information (current failure information) regarding the type of target steam utilization device, correction items related to the use state of the steam utilization device, the installation years of the steam utilization device, and the time at which the failure occurrence probability is calculated. Whether the occurrence probability is calculated, or the failure occurrence probability for a plurality of years from the present time to the future is calculated). In the present embodiment, the calculation condition acquisition unit 352 acquires identification information and calculation time point information about the target device group from the input / output processing unit 31, and is included in the device group corresponding to this identification information from the database server 4. The identification information of the steam-utilizing device, the type of steam-utilizing device corresponding to this identification information, the correction item, and the installation year are acquired. In addition, the calculation condition acquisition unit 352 also acquires the type of failure to be calculated when the input / output processing unit 31 is instructed with the type of failure for which the failure occurrence probability is to be calculated.

The parameter acquisition unit 353 acquires the calculation parameters corresponding to the target steam-using device from the database 6 storing the parameters for calculating the target failure curve for each type of steam-using device. For example, the database 6 may be one that stores parameters calculated based on data collected by the database server 4 such as the parameter storage unit 332 described above, or for calculating a failure curve related to steam utilization equipment. A publicly available database for storing parameters may be used. In the present embodiment, the parameter acquisition unit 353 acquires a calculation parameter corresponding to the type of the steam utilization device acquired by the calculation condition acquisition unit 352 from the database 6. In addition, when the calculation condition acquisition unit 352 also acquires the type of failure to be calculated, the parameter acquisition unit 353 acquires a calculation parameter for the acquired failure type, and the calculation condition acquisition unit 352 When the type is not acquired, calculation parameters are acquired for all types of failure.

The correction method storage unit 354 stores, for each type of steam utilization device, each correction item of the steam utilization device and a correction method corresponding thereto. In the present embodiment, correction items include items related to additional configurations provided for steam-utilizing devices (such as the presence of additional components such as a steam separator and the number of associated process devices), and the installation status of the steam-utilizing devices. -Items related to usage and performance (whether the usage status does not exceed performance, whether it is a place where water hammer is likely to occur, frequency of use or time), items related to work performed on steam-using equipment (repair work is performed) Whether the repair work was performed, when the repair work was performed, the type of repair work, the degree of effect of the repair work performed, etc.). The correction method is not particularly limited, and for example, correction may be performed by an appropriate calculation method such as multiplication or division of a calculation parameter by a value corresponding to each correction item.

The parameter correction unit 355 corrects the calculation parameter based on the correction method corresponding to the acquired correction item. According to the parameter correction unit 355, the calculation parameters relating to the steam-using device are further corrected based on the correction-related items corresponding to the actual situation of the steam-using device, so that the calculation parameters that match the actual situation of each process device are obtained. be able to.

The failure curve calculation unit 356 calculates a target failure curve based on a predetermined failure curve calculation model and corrected calculation parameters. The model to be used is not particularly limited, but the same model as the failure curve calculation unit 337 may be used. Moreover, when calculating the failure occurrence probability for each type of failure, the failure curve calculation unit 356 calculates a target failure curve for each type of failure for the steam-using equipment. Note that, like the failure curve correction unit 338, the calculated target failure curve may be corrected based on items related to work performed on the steam-using equipment.

The failure occurrence probability calculation unit 357 calculates a failure occurrence probability for the steam using device based on the calculated target failure curve and the calculation time point information acquired by the calculation condition acquisition unit 352. Since the failure occurrence probability calculation unit 357 calculates the failure occurrence probability in the same manner as the failure occurrence probability calculation unit 339, the description thereof is omitted.

As described above, in the steam using device calculation unit 35,
(1) a calculation condition acquisition step for acquiring a model, correction items, and the like for the target steam utilization device;
(2) a parameter acquisition step of acquiring a calculation parameter corresponding to the target steam-using device from the database 6;
(3) a parameter correction step for correcting the calculation parameter based on the correction method corresponding to the acquired correction item;
(4) a failure curve calculation step of calculating a target failure curve based on the calculation parameters;
(5) a failure occurrence probability calculating step of calculating a failure occurrence probability of the target process device based on the calculated target failure curve;
Is performed to calculate the failure occurrence probability for the target steam-using device.

The calculation target device group calculation unit (equivalent to the steam use device group calculation unit) 36 is a group of steam use devices including a steam use device that uses steam and a plurality of process device groups related to the steam use device. In order to calculate the failure occurrence probability of the target device group (calculation target device group), the process device group acquisition unit 361 that acquires the failure occurrence probability of the process device group, and the steam that acquires the failure occurrence probability of the steam using device A utilization device acquisition unit 362; and a failure occurrence probability calculation unit 363 that calculates the failure occurrence probability of the operation target device group using the acquired failure occurrence probability of each process device group and the failure occurrence probability of the steam utilization device. (FIG. 6).

The process device group acquisition unit 361 acquires the failure occurrence probability of each process device group constituting the target device group calculated by the failure occurrence probability calculation unit 344 of the process device group calculation unit 34. The process device group acquisition unit 361 acquires the failure occurrence probability of each process device group together with the identification information and the calculated failure occurrence probability at which point in time, and the failure occurrence probability of a plurality of device groups. In addition, when calculating failure occurrence probabilities at a plurality of points in time, it is possible to identify to which calculation target device group each process device group belongs and when each failure occurrence probability belongs.

The steam utilization device acquisition unit 362 acquires the failure occurrence probability calculated by the failure occurrence probability calculation unit 357 of the steam utilization device calculation unit 35. And the steam utilization apparatus acquisition part 362 acquires the identification information and the calculated failure occurrence probability at which time point, together with the failure occurrence probability of the steam utilization apparatus, similarly to the process equipment group acquisition section 361. .

The failure occurrence probability calculation unit 363 calculates the failure occurrence probability of the operation target device group using the acquired failure occurrence probability of each process device group and the failure occurrence probability of the steam utilization device. The failure occurrence probability calculation unit 363, when the calculation target device group is a device group used for tracing that does not include the steam utilization device, uses only the failure occurrence probability of the process device group to calculate the calculation target device group. Calculate the failure probability. As a calculation method, the failure occurrence probability of each process device group may be simply multiplied by the failure occurrence probability of the steam utilization device, and each arrangement relation is considered in the same manner as the process device group calculation unit 34. A calculation method may be determined so that the failure occurrence probability may be obtained by a calculation method according to the arrangement relationship, and the failure occurrence probability obtained by using items related to individual circumstances in the calculation target device group may be corrected. May be. In addition, when calculating the failure occurrence probability of multiple calculation target device groups and failure occurrence probabilities at multiple points in time, the same calculation is performed by identifying the process device group and the steam using device belonging to the same calculation target device group from the identification information. What is necessary is just to obtain | require the failure occurrence probability of each calculation object apparatus group from the failure occurrence probability of the process apparatus group and steam utilization apparatus which belong to the object apparatus group, or to obtain the failure occurrence probability by combining the failure occurrence probabilities at the same time.

As described above, the failure occurrence probability calculation processing unit 32 obtains the failure occurrence probability for each process device, each process device group, each steam utilization device, and each calculation target device group. The failure probability of each process device, each process device group, each steam utilization device, and each computation target device group is the identification information, the type of failure, and when the failure occurrence probability Together with the information, it is sent to the display image calculation processing unit 38.

The influence degree calculation processing unit 37 calculates the influence degree of the calculation target device group or each component, and includes a calculation condition acquisition part 371, an influence degree storage part 372, an influence degree acquisition part 373, and an influence degree calculation. Part 374.

The calculation condition acquisition unit 371 acquires the type and model of each process device and steam-utilizing device constituting the calculation target device group. In the present embodiment, the calculation condition acquisition unit 371 acquires identification information about a target device group from the input / output processing unit 31, and each process device included in the device group corresponding to this identification information from the database server 4. And the identification information of the steam utilization equipment, and the type and model of each process equipment and steam utilization equipment corresponding to this identification information. In addition, the calculation condition acquisition unit 371 also acquires the type of failure to be calculated when the input / output processing unit 31 is instructed for the type of failure for which the failure occurrence probability is to be calculated. In addition, in the case where determination items for the influence level acquisition unit 373 to acquire the influence levels (such as the presence or absence of a device configuration that can reduce or avoid damage due to failure) are determined, the calculation condition acquisition unit 371 determines the determination items. Also obtain for each process equipment and steam equipment.

The impact level storage unit 372 stores the level of impact corresponding to the type and type of each process device and steam-utilizing device and the type of failure. In addition, for each type of process equipment and steam-utilizing equipment and type, the impact is classified and stored based on a predetermined judgment item, and the influence of different values is stored depending on the presence or absence of the judgment item. Good.

The impact level acquisition unit 373 acquires the impact level corresponding to the type and model of each process device and steam utilization device acquired by the calculation condition acquisition unit 371 from the impact level storage unit 372. In addition, when the calculation condition acquisition unit 371 has also acquired the determination items, the influence degree acquisition unit 373 affects the type and model of each process device or steam utilization device and the influence degree corresponding to the determination item. Obtained from the degree storage unit 372. When the calculation condition acquisition unit 371 has also acquired the type of failure to be calculated, the influence level acquisition unit 373 acquires the influence level for the acquired type of failure, and the calculation condition acquisition unit 371 has the fault When the type is not acquired, calculation parameters are acquired for all types of failure.

The influence degree calculation unit 374 calculates the influence degree of the process device group and the calculation target device group by combining the influence degree of each process device and the steam using device acquired by the influence degree acquisition unit 373 by a predetermined calculation method. . As a calculation method, addition may be simply performed, or calculation may be performed according to a predetermined model.

As described above, the influence degree calculation processing unit 37 obtains the influence degree for each process device, each process device group, each steam utilization device, and each calculation target device group, and receives an instruction from the input / output processing unit 31. Accordingly, the degree of influence of each process device, each process device group, each steam utilization device, and each calculation target device group is sent to the display image calculation processing unit 38 together with the identification information and the type of failure.

The display image calculation processing unit 38 acquires a failure occurrence probability acquisition unit 381 that acquires a failure occurrence probability for a target device group or component, and an influence degree that acquires an influence level corresponding to the target device group or component. An acquisition unit 382, a mode switching unit 383 that can switch the display mode of image data, and an image data generation unit 384 that generates image data are provided, and the failure occurrence probability and the degree of influence when a failure occurs are determined. Image data that displays a plot diagram in which a set (that is, risk) of a failure occurrence probability acquired by the failure occurrence probability acquisition unit 381 and an influence degree acquired by the influence degree acquisition unit 382 is plotted on a risk matrix set on two axes. Is generated.

First, the mode switching unit 383 will be described. The mode switching unit 383 switches the image data generation unit 384 to a plurality of modes having different display forms of generated image data. Modes that can be set by the mode switching unit 383 include a calculation target device group unit mode for generating display data for displaying a plot diagram plotted for each calculation target device group, and a display for displaying a plot diagram plotted for each process device group. Process device group unit mode for generating data, three modes related to the display target of the configuration unit mode for generating display data for displaying plots plotted in each component unit constituting the device group, and options for these three modes As a result, the improvement data is displayed when the improvement items are displayed together with the plot diagram, and the improvement items are displayed when the selected improvement items are executed. Improvement effect table that generates display data that displays plots plotting subsequent risks Mode, there is a reference line display mode for displaying a plot of repeated baseline for risk grasp on the plot to be displayed. The mode switching unit 383 switches the mode of the image data generation unit 384 in accordance with an instruction from the input / output processing unit 31.

The failure occurrence probability acquisition unit 381 includes a necessary failure occurrence among the failure occurrence probabilities of each process device, each process device group, each steam utilization device, and each operation target device group calculated by the failure occurrence probability calculation processing unit 32. Get the probability. Specifically, when in the calculation target device group unit mode, the failure occurrence probability (referred to as the total failure occurrence probability) of each calculation target device group is acquired, and when in the process device group unit mode, the total failure occurrence In addition to or instead of the probability, the failure occurrence probability (referred to as intermediate failure occurrence probability) of each process equipment group is acquired, and when in the structural unit mode, in addition to the overall failure occurrence probability or intermediate failure occurrence probability or Instead of this, a failure occurrence probability (referred to as individual failure occurrence probability) for each component (each process device and each steam utilization device) constituting the calculation target device group is acquired.

In addition, the failure occurrence probability acquisition unit 381, when in the temporal change display mode, for a target device group and each component, a data group (a plurality of time points) indicating a change in failure occurrence probability from the present time. Failure probability). That is, when in the improvement effect display mode, the failure occurrence probability acquisition unit 381 in the calculation target device group unit mode, the entire data group (a change in the overall failure occurrence probability with time) that is a data group related to the entire calculation target device group. In the process equipment group unit mode, in addition to or instead of the entire data group, an intermediate data group that is a data group related to each process equipment group (change in the probability of occurrence of each intermediate failure over time) Individual data groups relating to each of the components (each process device and steam utilization device) that constitute the operation target device group in addition to or instead of the entire data group and intermediate data group A data group (a data group indicating a change with time of each individual failure occurrence probability) is acquired. Each failure occurrence probability acquired as a data group is associated with information on the failure occurrence probability at each point in time.

Then, the failure occurrence probability acquisition unit 381 responds to an instruction from the input / output processing unit 31 for each type of failure for each process device, each process device group, each steam utilization device, and each calculation target device group. The occurrence probability (or the data group described above) is acquired.

The influence degree acquisition unit 382 acquires a necessary influence degree among the influence degrees of each process device, each process device group, each steam utilization device, and each calculation target device group calculated by the influence degree calculation processing unit 37. . Similar to the failure occurrence probability acquisition unit 381, the influence degree acquisition unit 382 acquires the influence degree (referred to as the overall influence degree) of each calculation target device group when in the calculation target device group unit mode, and the process device group When in unit mode, in addition to or instead of the overall impact level, the impact level of each process device group (referred to as intermediate impact level) is acquired. When in the unit mode, the overall impact level or intermediate impact level is obtained. In addition to or instead of the degree, the degree of influence (referred to as individual influence degree) relating to each of the components (each process device and each steam-utilizing device) constituting the calculation target device group is acquired.

Further, the influence level acquisition unit 382 is configured to determine the degree of influence of each process device, each process device group, each steam utilization device, and each calculation target device group for each type of failure in accordance with an instruction from the input / output processing unit 31. To get to.

In addition, the failure occurrence probability acquisition unit 381 and the influence degree acquisition unit 382 include each of the corresponding process devices, each process device group, each steam utilization device, and each calculation target, together with the failure occurrence probability (and data group) and the influence degree. The identification information and the type of failure related to the device group are acquired, and the image data generation unit 384 can create a set of failure occurrence probability and influence degree of the same identification information and failure type.

The image data generation unit 384 generates image data for displaying a plot diagram in which a set of the acquired failure occurrence probability and influence degree is plotted on the risk matrix as shown in FIGS. Specifically, when the image data generation unit 384 is in the calculation target device group unit mode, the image data generation unit 384 displays a plot diagram in which the set of the acquired total failure occurrence probability and the total influence degree is plotted on the risk matrix. When the data is generated (see FIGS. 10 and 12) and in the process equipment group unit mode, the acquired intermediate is acquired on the risk matrix together with or instead of the set of the acquired total failure occurrence probability and the total influence degree. Generate image data that displays a plot diagram that plots a set of failure occurrence probability and intermediate influence level, and when in the process equipment group unit mode, the acquired total failure occurrence probability and overall influence degree are displayed on the risk matrix. A plot that plots each set of acquired individual failure occurrence probability and individual influence degree together with or instead of the set of intermediate failure occurrence probability and intermediate failure occurrence probability and intermediate effect degree. Generating image data for displaying the diagram (see Fig. 11 and 13).

Then, the image data generation unit 384 acquires, in the time-varying change display mode, on the risk matrix according to the calculation target device group unit mode, the process device group unit mode, or the configuration unit mode. Image data is generated that displays a plot diagram in which a set of the obtained influence degree is plotted for each failure occurrence probability constituting a data group (an entire data group, an intermediate data group, and an individual data group). For example, when the image data generation unit 384 is in the calculation target device group unit mode, for each failure occurrence probability constituting the acquired entire data group on the risk matrix as shown in FIG. Image data for displaying a plot diagram in which the set is plotted is generated. When the image data generation unit 384 is in the structural unit mode, the entire occurrence probability of each failure that constitutes the individual data group for each acquired individual data group on the risk matrix as shown in FIG. In addition to or instead of plotting a set of the data group and the overall influence degree, image data for generating a plot diagram in which the set of the individual influence degree corresponding to the individual data group is plotted is generated.

As described above, when the display image calculation processing unit 38 is in the temporal change display mode,
(1) A failure occurrence probability acquisition step for acquiring a data group indicating a change with time of failure occurrence probability from the current time regarding the calculation target device group;
(2) an influence degree acquisition step of acquiring an influence degree corresponding to the calculation target device group;
(3) On the risk matrix, for each failure occurrence probability constituting the acquired data group, an image data generation step for generating image data for displaying a plot diagram in which a set with the acquired influence degree is plotted;
The risk change with time is displayed to the user.

When the image data generation unit 384 is in the improvement effect display mode, the image data generation unit 384 generates image data for displaying a column indicating an improvement item for the calculation target device group as illustrated in FIGS. In the present embodiment, the improvement items correspond to the above-described device-related items and work-related items related to the process equipment, and correction items related to the steam utilization device, and when the user selects one or more improvement items. The input / output processing unit 31 acquires the selected improvement item (that is, the device-related item, work-related item, and correction item corresponding thereto) (that is, the input / output processing unit 31 acquires the improvement item). To act as an improvement item acquisition unit).

When the input / output processing unit 31 acquires the improvement item, the device-related item, the work-related item, and the correction item corresponding to the acquired improvement item are stored in the failure occurrence probability calculation processing unit 32 (calculation condition acquisition unit 333, 352). The

parameter correction units

336 and 355 and the failure curve correction unit 338 are acquired and the calculation parameters and failure curves are assumed to have the device related items, work related items, and correction items acquired by the target process device and steam utilization device. Make a new correction. Then, the failure occurrence probability calculation processing unit 32 newly calculates a failure occurrence probability for each process device, each process device group, each steam utilization device, and each calculation target device group based on the corrected calculation parameter and failure curve. As a failure occurrence probability after improvement, which is a failure occurrence probability of the device group (each process device, each process device group, each steam utilization device, and each calculation target device group) when the improvement item is calculated. The failure occurrence probability acquisition unit 381 is sent.

The failure occurrence probability acquisition unit 381 acquires the sent post-improvement failure occurrence probability, and the image data generation unit 384 displays the failure occurrence probability being displayed on the risk matrix based on the acquired improved failure occurrence probability. In addition to or instead of the set of the influence degree, image data for generating a plot diagram in which the set of the acquired post-improvement failure occurrence probability and the influence degree is plotted is generated.

As described above, when the display image calculation processing unit 38 is in the improvement effect display mode,
(1) a failure occurrence probability acquisition step of acquiring a failure occurrence probability for the operation target device group;
(2) an influence degree acquisition step of acquiring an influence degree corresponding to the calculation target device group;
(3) An image data generation step for generating image data for displaying a plot diagram in which a set of the acquired failure occurrence probability and influence degree is plotted on the risk matrix;
(4) an improvement item acquisition step of acquiring improvement items for the device group to be calculated;
(5) When an improvement item is acquired in the improvement item acquisition step, a failure occurrence probability after improvement, which is a failure occurrence probability of the device group when the improvement item is implemented, is acquired, and the acquired failure occurrence probability on the risk matrix And an improved image data generation step for generating image data for displaying a plot diagram in which the set of the acquired improved failure occurrence probability and the influence level is plotted together with or instead of the set of the impact level, and
The risk change before and after the improvement is displayed to the user.

In addition, when plotting for each type of failure, the image data generation unit 384, for each failure type (More, Tsumari) as shown in FIGS. When in the time-dependent change display mode, image data is generated that displays a plot diagram in which a set of each failure occurrence probability that constitutes the acquired data group and the corresponding degree of influence is plotted.

In addition, when in the reference line display mode, as shown in FIGS. 10 to 13, the image data generation unit 384 displays image data that displays a plot diagram in which the reference line 7 for grasping the risk is superimposed on the plot diagram to be displayed. Is supposed to generate. As a result, a plot diagram is displayed together with the reference line 7 as an index. For example, the region above the reference line 7 is high risk, and the region below the reference line 7 is visually not assumed to be high risk. This makes it easier to assess risks.

As described above, in the monitoring server 3 that functions as a risk evaluation device, in response to an instruction from the user terminal 1, each corresponding process device, each process device group, each steam using device, and each calculation target device group The failure occurrence probability and impact level of the system are calculated, and the set of the calculated failure occurrence probability and impact level is plotted on the plot diagram as the risk of the process equipment, process equipment group, steam-using equipment, and computation target equipment group that are subject to computation. It is supposed to be displayed. And according to the monitoring server 3 (that is, a risk evaluation apparatus, a risk evaluation method, and a risk evaluation program) of this embodiment, there are the following advantages.

First, when calculating the failure occurrence probability of a process device, the failure occurrence probability is obtained from a failure occurrence curve based on a parameter calculated using data related to a large number of process devices. Since parameters related to piping system related items that are directly connected to the one used and have a great influence on the failure occurrence probability are calculated, it is possible to obtain the failure occurrence probability in accordance with the characteristics of the process equipment. In addition, not all information related to the process equipment is used, but objective items related to the piping system that are not related to the circumstances of the process equipment itself are used. Therefore, it is easy to collect the same kind of data, and the accuracy when calculating parameters is improved. It is done. In addition, parameters obtained based on objective piping system related items related to process equipment are further corrected by equipment related items and work related items related to subjective process equipment itself, so that the accuracy of the parameters is effectively increased. It is possible to calculate the failure occurrence probability with high accuracy.

In addition, the failure occurrence probability calculation processing unit 32 is not limited to the failure occurrence probability of each process device, but also a group of configurations including a plurality of devices such as a process device group and a steam utilization device group by a predetermined calculation method. A failure occurrence probability is required. As a result, it is possible to perform risk assessment not only for individual devices but also for a group of devices (assets).

The display image calculation processing unit 38 can show a change in risk over time on a risk matrix for a target device group (asset). Thereby, the user can perform risk assessment for the future. In addition, it is possible to switch and display plot diagrams in the form of plots in device group units and plots in configuration units. When plotting in device group units, what is seen in the entire device group? You can assess whether the risk exists in the future, and when plotting by composition unit, you can assess the risk for each composition. And if changes over time in the risk of individual components are shown along with changes in risk over the entire device group, which components in the device group contribute particularly to changes over time in the overall device group risk? It is also possible to know such information.

In the display image calculation processing unit 38, a change in risk before and after the improvement is shown to the user, so that the user can determine the necessity for improvement. In addition, it is possible to switch and display plot diagrams in the form of plots in units of equipment groups and plots in configuration units, so that the effect of facility improvement for each configuration can be shown. It is possible to more appropriately evaluate the risk inherent in the configuration of.

[Other Embodiments]
Finally, other embodiments of the risk evaluation device, the risk evaluation method, and the risk evaluation program according to the present disclosure will be described. Note that the configurations disclosed in the following embodiments can be applied in combination with the configurations disclosed in other embodiments as long as no contradiction arises.

(1) In the above embodiment, the calculation

condition acquisition units

333, 352, 371 and the arrangement relationship acquisition unit 343 acquire identification information from the input / output processing unit 31 and acquire calculation conditions corresponding thereto from the database server 4. The configuration has been described as an example. However, the embodiment of the present disclosure is not limited to this. For example, the calculation condition may be directly acquired from the input / output processing unit 31.

(2) In the above embodiment, a description is given of an example in which the process equipment computing unit 33 and the steam using equipment computing unit 35 correct the computation parameters and the failure curve by the

parameter correction units

336 and 355 and the failure curve correction unit 338. did. However, the embodiment of the present disclosure is not limited to this, and the failure curve may be calculated without correcting the calculation parameter acquired by the parameter acquisition unit 334, and the calculated failure curve may not be corrected. .

(3) In the above embodiment, the failure occurrence probability calculation processing unit 32 is an example of a configuration that can calculate the failure occurrence probability of each process device, each process device group, each steam utilization device, and each calculation target device group. Explained. However, the embodiment of the present disclosure is not limited to this, and the failure occurrence probability calculation processing unit 32 calculates only a part of each process device, each process device group, each steam utilization device, and each calculation target device group. It may be a thing.

(4) In the above embodiment, the configuration in which the process equipment group calculation unit 34 calculates the failure occurrence probability of the process equipment group based on the failure occurrence probability calculated by the process equipment calculation unit 33 has been described as an example. However, the embodiment of the present disclosure is not limited to this, and the process equipment group calculation unit 34 may have a failure occurrence probability of a process equipment from various configurations, such as a value directly input from a user or a value stored in a database in advance. May be obtained. Similarly, the calculation target device group calculation unit 36 and the failure occurrence probability acquisition unit 381 may acquire necessary failure occurrence probabilities from various configurations, and the influence degree acquisition unit 382 may also acquire necessary influence degrees from various configurations. May be obtained.

(5) The above-described correction-related device items, work-related items, and correction items are merely examples, and can be appropriately changed according to the purpose.

(6) In the above embodiment, the calculation method described in the process equipment group calculation unit 34 is merely an example, and can be appropriately changed according to the purpose.

(7) In the above embodiment, the image data generation unit 384 is set to the calculation target device group unit mode, the process device group unit mode, the configuration unit mode, the temporal change display mode, the improvement effect display mode, and the reference line display mode. A possible configuration has been described as an example. However, the embodiment of the present disclosure is not limited to this, and may be set to only some modes.

(8) In the above embodiment, the monitoring server 3 is configured to include the failure occurrence probability calculation processing unit 32, the influence calculation processing unit 37, and the display image calculation processing unit 38 by the risk evaluation program. explained. However, embodiments of the present disclosure are not limited to this. For example, the user terminal 1 is provided with the display image calculation processing unit 38, and the risk evaluation program or a part thereof is applied to the user terminal 1, such as acquiring the failure occurrence probability and the degree of influence from the monitoring server 3. The user terminal 1 may be stored so that all or part of the failure occurrence probability calculation processing unit 32, the influence degree calculation processing unit 37, and the display image calculation processing unit 38 are provided.

(9) In the above embodiment, the configuration in which the monitoring server 3 acquires necessary data from the external database server 4 has been described as an example. However, the embodiment of the present disclosure is not limited to this, and necessary data may be stored in the storage unit of the monitoring server 3.

(10) Regarding other configurations as well, it should be understood that the embodiments disclosed herein are illustrative in all respects and that the scope of the present disclosure is not limited thereby. Those skilled in the art will readily understand that appropriate modifications can be made without departing from the spirit of the present disclosure. Accordingly, other embodiments modified without departing from the spirit of the present disclosure are naturally included in the scope of the present disclosure.

This disclosure can be used, for example, to perform a risk assessment of a plant.

3 Monitoring server (risk evaluation device)
31 Input / output processing unit 32 Failure occurrence probability calculation processing unit 33 Process equipment calculation unit 331 Target failure curve calculation unit 332a Parameter calculation unit 332b Parameter storage unit 333 Calculation condition acquisition unit 334 Parameter acquisition unit 335 Correction method storage unit 336 Parameter correction unit 337 Failure curve calculation unit 338 Failure occurrence probability calculation unit 34 Process equipment group calculation unit 341 Calculation method storage unit 342 Probability acquisition unit 343 Arrangement relationship acquisition unit 344 Failure occurrence probability calculation unit 35 Steam utilization device calculation unit 351 Target failure curve calculation unit 352 calculation Condition acquisition unit 353 Parameter acquisition unit 354 Correction method storage unit 355 Parameter correction unit 356 Failure curve calculation unit 357 Failure occurrence probability calculation unit 36 Steam use device group calculation unit 361 Process device group acquisition unit 362 Steam use device acquisition unit 363 Occurrence probability calculation unit 37 Influence degree calculation processing unit 371 Calculation condition acquisition unit 372 Influence degree acquisition unit 373 Influence degree storage unit 374 Influence degree calculation unit 38 Display image calculation processing unit 381 Failure occurrence probability acquisition unit 382 Influence degree acquisition unit 383 Mode switching Part 384 image data generation part 7 reference line

Claims

A risk assessment device for risk assessment of a steam plant,
A process device group calculation unit that calculates a failure occurrence probability of a process device group including one piping system and a plurality of process devices provided in the piping system;
The process equipment group computing unit is
A calculation method storage unit that stores a calculation method of a failure occurrence probability according to the arrangement relationship between the process devices constituting the process device group;
An individual probability acquisition unit that acquires an individual probability that is a failure occurrence probability for each target process device that is a process device in the target target process device group;
An arrangement relationship acquisition unit that acquires a target arrangement relationship that is an arrangement relationship of each target process device in the target process device group;
A risk evaluation unit comprising a failure occurrence probability calculation unit that calculates a target failure occurrence probability that is a failure occurrence probability of the target process device group using the acquired individual probabilities based on the calculation method corresponding to the target arrangement relationship apparatus.
The calculation method storage unit stores, as the calculation method, a parallel calculation method when the process devices are in a parallel relationship and a serial calculation method when the process devices are in a serial relationship. Risk assessment device described in 1.
The arrangement relationship acquisition unit, when there are a plurality of parallel device groups that are a group of the target process devices that are in a parallel arrangement relationship, or the other parallel device group exists and is not included in the parallel device group When there is a complex relationship that exists when there is a target process device, one or a plurality of the parallel device groups are specified as the target arrangement relationship, and each of the parallel device groups or the parallel device group and the other target process Identify the device as a series device group,
The failure occurrence probability calculation unit uses the individual probabilities of the target process devices constituting the parallel device group based on the parallel calculation method when the complex relationship exists, and generates a failure occurrence for the parallel device group. Probability is calculated, based on the serial calculation method, using the respective failure occurrence probability of the parallel device group or the failure occurrence probability of one or more of the parallel device group and the individual probability of the other target process device, The risk evaluation apparatus according to claim 2, wherein the target failure occurrence probability is calculated by calculating a failure occurrence probability of the series device group.
The arrangement relationship acquisition unit includes a group of the target process devices in a parallel arrangement relationship, and a group of the target process devices in a series arrangement relationship with each other. When one or a plurality of sub-series device groups are present, as the target arrangement relationship, the parallel device group and the sub-series device group are identified,
The failure occurrence probability calculation unit, when the parallel device group and the sub-series device group exist, based on the serial calculation method, using each individual probability of the target process device constituting the sub-series device group, A failure occurrence probability for one or a plurality of sub-series device groups is calculated, and a failure occurrence probability for the parallel device group is calculated using the failure occurrence probabilities for the one or more sub-series device groups based on the parallel calculation method. The risk evaluation apparatus according to claim 2 or 3, wherein an occurrence probability is calculated.
When the parallel device group that is a group of the target process devices in a parallel layout relationship exists, the placement relationship acquisition unit satisfies the performance required for the performance of the target process device that constitutes the parallel device group. And when the performance of all the target process devices on one side in a parallel relationship does not satisfy the required performance, the target process constituting the parallel device group as the target placement relationship The risk evaluation apparatus according to any one of claims 2 to 4, which specifies that the devices are in a serial relationship.
A steam utilization device group calculation unit that calculates a failure occurrence probability of a group of steam utilization devices including a steam utilization device that uses steam and a plurality of the process device groups related to the steam utilization device;
The steam using device group computing unit is
A process device group acquisition unit that acquires the target failure occurrence probability of each process device group that constitutes a target target steam utilization device group that is calculated by the process device group calculation unit;
A steam utilization device acquisition unit for acquiring a failure occurrence probability of the steam utilization device in the target steam utilization device group; and
6. A failure occurrence probability calculating unit that calculates a failure occurrence probability of the target steam using device group using each acquired target failure occurrence probability and failure occurrence probability of the steam using device. The risk assessment device according to item.
The steam utilization device acquisition unit acquires the failure occurrence probability calculated by the steam utilization device calculation unit that calculates the failure occurrence probability of the steam utilization device in the target steam utilization device group,
The steam using device calculation unit is
A target failure curve calculation unit that calculates a target failure curve indicating a change in failure occurrence probability with respect to time for a target steam utilization device as a target;
A failure occurrence probability calculating unit that calculates the failure occurrence probability of the target steam using device based on the calculated target failure curve,
The target failure curve calculation unit is
A parameter acquisition unit that acquires a parameter for calculation corresponding to the target steam using device from a storage unit that stores parameters for calculation of the target failure curve for each type of steam using device;
The risk evaluation apparatus according to claim 6, further comprising: a failure curve calculation unit that calculates the target failure curve based on the calculation parameter.
The steam using device calculation unit is
For each type of steam-using device, a correction method storage unit that stores correction items that are items related to the state of use of the steam-using device and a corresponding correction method;
A correction item acquisition unit for acquiring the correction item for the target steam using device;
Based on the correction method corresponding to the acquired correction item, a parameter correction unit that corrects the calculation parameter;
With
The risk evaluation apparatus according to claim 7, wherein the failure curve calculation unit calculates the target failure curve based on the calculation parameters corrected by the parameter correction unit.
A risk assessment method for risk assessment of a steam plant to be executed by a computer,
A process device group calculation step for calculating a failure occurrence probability of a process device group including one piping system and a plurality of process devices provided in the piping system;
The process equipment group calculation step is:
A calculation method storage step of storing a calculation method of a failure occurrence probability according to the arrangement relationship between the process devices constituting the process device group;
An individual probability acquisition step of acquiring an individual probability that is a failure occurrence probability for each target process device that is a process device in a target target process device group;
An arrangement relationship acquisition step of acquiring a target arrangement relationship that is an arrangement relationship of each target process device in the target process equipment group;
Based on the calculation method corresponding to the target arrangement relationship, a failure occurrence probability calculating step of calculating a target failure occurrence probability that is a failure occurrence probability of the target process device group using each acquired individual probability Method.
A risk assessment program for risk assessment of a steam plant to be executed by a computer,
In the computer,
Realizing a process device group calculation function for calculating a failure occurrence probability of a process device group including one piping system and a plurality of process devices provided in the piping system,
In the process equipment group calculation function,
A calculation method storage function for storing a calculation method of a failure occurrence probability in accordance with the arrangement relationship between the process devices constituting the process device group;
An individual probability acquisition function for acquiring an individual probability that is a failure occurrence probability for each target process device that is a process device in the target target process device group;
An arrangement relationship acquisition function for acquiring a target arrangement relationship that is an arrangement relationship of each of the target process devices in the target process device group;
Based on the calculation method corresponding to the target arrangement relationship, a failure occurrence probability calculation function that calculates a target failure occurrence probability that is a failure occurrence probability of the target process equipment group using each acquired individual probability;
Risk assessment program that enables computers to realize