WO2016071993A1

WO2016071993A1 - Vehicle consumable item demand prediction system and vehicle consumable item demand prediction program

Info

Publication number: WO2016071993A1
Application number: PCT/JP2014/079457
Authority: WO
Inventors: 池田　秀樹
Original assignee: 株式会社日立システムズ
Priority date: 2014-11-06
Filing date: 2014-11-06
Publication date: 2016-05-12

Abstract

The present invention is a vehicle consumable item demand prediction system that uses telematics to appropriately ascertain the deterioration state of a consumable item of a vehicle, and predicts the demand for the consumable item needed at the time of maintenance at a repair shop, for example. According to a representative embodiment, the system is provided with: a vehicle information collection unit 11 which collects vehicle information collected for each vehicle 20 and information regarding maintenance results for the vehicles 20 and stores the foregoing information in a vehicle information accumulation database 16; an analysis unit 13' which, on the basis of the vehicle information, calculates the degree of deterioration of a consumable item for each vehicle 20 and records the same in a consumable item status database 63, tabulates the degrees of deterioration, and based thereon calculates a rate of deterioration and records the same in a deterioration rate trend database 64; and a demand prediction unit 61 which, on the basis of information that includes the degree of deterioration, the deterioration rate, a degree of deterioration threshold, a vehicle location, and an area in which a repair shop provides service, calculates the type and quantity of a consumable item that could need replacement at the repair shop, due to the degree of deterioration exceeding the threshold within a prescribed period of time.

Description

Vehicle consumable demand forecast system and vehicle consumable demand forecast program

The present invention relates to a technique for managing inspection and maintenance of a vehicle, and is particularly effective when applied to a vehicle consumables demand prediction system that uses telematics to predict demand for consumables necessary for vehicle maintenance. It is about technology.

In recent years, the use of telematics, which provides various services by exchanging information with automobiles and transportation vehicles by wireless communication, has been studied. So far, services such as grasping the operation status of vehicles and distributing traffic information etc. to vehicles have been studied, but by collecting and analyzing vehicle information, for example, vehicle failure diagnosis, Application to vehicle maintenance / maintenance areas such as judgment of parts deterioration status is also under consideration.

For example, in Japanese Patent No. 4585944 (Patent Document 1), reception of vehicle information by access from a user's mobile phone, request for data of own vehicle by access from a user's personal computer, or other department related to the vehicle management system In the case of data reception, the data is processed and accumulated in the database in time series, and the prediction diagnosis is performed from the change of the learning value with time. A vehicle management system is described that grasps the deterioration state of parts and systems from initial vehicle information and transmits data to an access destination.

Japanese Patent No. 4583594

By using a technique such as that described in Patent Document 1, it is possible to grasp the current deterioration state of a vehicle part or system, predict an abnormality, and perform maintenance guidance.

However, the use of such telematics in the present situation is as described above from the viewpoint of the owner of the vehicle (in addition to individuals, for example, a carrier that owns a large number of transportation vehicles). For example, it is still not fully utilized from the viewpoint of related companies such as a maintenance factory that performs maintenance such as vehicle inspection and maintenance. For example, in a maintenance shop, a large number of consumables that can be replaced at the time of vehicle maintenance needs to be kept in stock to some extent, and there is a high need for efficient management through appropriate inventory management. However, the amount of stock that should be kept is usually based on experience and intuition at maintenance shops, which often leads to out-of-stock or excess inventory.

Accordingly, an object of the present invention is to provide a vehicle consumables demand prediction system that uses telematics to appropriately grasp the deterioration state of consumables for a vehicle and predict demand for consumables required for maintenance in a maintenance factory or the like. The object is to provide a vehicle consumable demand forecast program.

The above and other objects and novel features of the present invention will be apparent from the description of this specification and the accompanying drawings.

Of the inventions disclosed in this application, the outline of typical ones will be briefly described as follows.

A vehicle consumables demand prediction system according to a representative embodiment of the present invention is a vehicle consumables demand prediction system that predicts the type and quantity of consumables required for vehicle maintenance in a predetermined period in a vehicle maintenance factory. A vehicle information collection unit that collects vehicle information collected in each vehicle and information related to a result of maintenance in the vehicle via a network and records the information in a vehicle information accumulation storage unit, and the vehicle information accumulation storage unit On the basis of the vehicle information recorded on the vehicle, the degree of deterioration of the consumables in each vehicle is calculated and recorded in the consumable part status storage unit, and the degree of deterioration recorded in the consumable part status storage unit is totalized. And an analysis unit that calculates the deterioration rate based on the information and records it in the deterioration rate tendency storage unit.

The vehicle consumables demand prediction system further includes the deterioration level of each consumable item recorded in the consumable item status storage unit, and the deterioration rate of each consumable item recorded in the deterioration degree trend storage unit, Based on information including the threshold of the degree of deterioration that needs to be replaced for each consumable, the location of the vehicle to which each consumable is attached, and the area where the maintenance shop provides services related to maintenance The maintenance factory includes a demand prediction unit that calculates the type and quantity of consumables that may require replacement because the degree of deterioration exceeds the threshold value within the predetermined period.

The present invention can also be applied to a vehicle consumables demand prediction program that causes a computer to execute processing so as to function as the vehicle consumables demand prediction system as described above.

Among the inventions disclosed in the present application, effects obtained by typical ones will be briefly described as follows.

That is, according to the representative embodiment of the present invention, the deterioration state of the consumables of the vehicle is appropriately grasped by utilizing telematics, and the demand forecast of the consumables necessary for maintenance at a maintenance shop or the like is made. Can be done.

It is the figure which showed the outline | summary about the structural example of the vehicle preventive maintenance system which is Embodiment 1 of this invention. It is the figure which showed the outline | summary about the example of the PDCA cycle which can be implement | achieved using the preventive maintenance service in Embodiment 1 of this invention. It is the figure which showed the outline | summary about the example of the data structure of vehicle information storage DB in Embodiment 1 of this invention. (A), (b) is the figure which showed the outline | summary about the example of a data structure of vehicle condition DB in Embodiment 1 of this invention. It is the figure which showed the outline | summary about the example of a data structure of the maintenance plan DB in Embodiment 1 of this invention. It is the figure which showed the outline | summary about the example of a data structure of the consumable goods master DB in Embodiment 1 of this invention. It is the figure which showed the outline | summary about the structural example of the vehicle consumable goods demand prediction system which is Embodiment 2 of this invention. It is the figure which showed the outline | summary about the example of the transition of the deterioration condition of the consumable goods in Embodiment 2 of this invention. It is the figure which showed the outline | summary about the example of the demand number of the consumable goods in Embodiment 2 of this invention. (A), (b) is the figure which showed the outline | summary about the example of a data structure of consumable goods status DB in Embodiment 2 of this invention. It is the figure which showed the outline | summary about the example of a data structure of deterioration rate tendency DB in Embodiment 2 of this invention. It is the figure which showed the outline | summary about the example of a data structure of the consumable goods master DB in Embodiment 2 of this invention. It is the figure which showed the outline | summary about the example of a data structure of the maintenance factory master DB in Embodiment 2 of this invention.

Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings. Note that components having the same function are denoted by the same reference symbols throughout the drawings for describing the embodiment, and the repetitive description thereof will be omitted.

(Embodiment 1)
In Embodiment 1 of the present invention, as an example of utilization of telematics, for example, in a carrier that owns and manages a large number of vehicles, information on these vehicles is collected and managed centrally by telematics. A vehicle preventive maintenance system that estimates the deterioration state of consumables quantitatively based on information and supports the planning and management of an efficient maintenance plan based on the estimation result will be described.

<System configuration>
FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an outline of a configuration example of a vehicle preventive maintenance system according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention. In the vehicle preventive maintenance system 1, for example, the vehicle preventive maintenance server 10 acquires and collects vehicle information from one or more vehicles 20 owned or managed by a carrier via a network 50 such as wireless communication and the Internet. By analyzing the above, a telematics service that supports the planning and management of the maintenance plan for each vehicle 20 is provided to the carrier. Vehicle information, maintenance information, and the like may be acquired from a maintenance factory or the like in which the vehicle 20 performs maintenance via a maintenance factory terminal 30 including an information processing terminal such as a PC (Personal Computer).

In the carrier, for example, the user accesses the vehicle preventive maintenance server 10 via the network 50 by using a web browser (not shown) on the carrier terminal 40 including an information processing terminal such as a PC, and the maintenance plan. Use services such as planning support.

The vehicle preventive maintenance server 10 is a server system implemented by, for example, a server device in a data center or a virtual server constructed on a cloud computing service, and an OS (Operating System) or DBMS (DataBase Management System) not shown. Each unit includes a vehicle information collection unit 11, a related information acquisition unit 12, an analysis unit 13, a plan management unit 14, and a plan evaluation unit 15, which are implemented as a software program that runs on middleware such as a Web server program. In addition, each database and table includes a vehicle information accumulation database (DB) 16, a vehicle situation DB 17, a maintenance plan DB 18, and a consumables master DB 19.

The vehicle information collection unit 11 acquires and collects vehicle information about the vehicle 20 and information related to maintenance processing results from each vehicle 20 and the maintenance factory terminal 30 via the network 50 periodically or at any time, It has a function of recording in the vehicle information storage DB 16. As described later, the vehicle information is collected by, for example, position information by GPS (Global Positioning System), information collected by an electronic control unit (ECU: Electronic Control Unit), information such as a tachometer, and various sensors. Information may be included. As information collected by various sensors, in addition to consumables or the temperature in the vicinity, conventionally, for example, qualitative evaluation based on human senses such as volume in the engine room, tension and hardness of elastic bodies such as belts, etc. What makes it possible to quantitatively evaluate what has been done is desirable.

The related information acquisition unit 12 acquires external related information that may affect the operation and state of the vehicle 20 corresponding to the vehicle information recorded in the vehicle information accumulation DB 16 from an external service (not shown), and individually. Alternatively, it has a function of recording in the vehicle information storage DB 16 together with the vehicle information. The related information may include, for example, weather information at the time and position when the vehicle information is acquired, terrain information, road information, and the like.

The analysis unit 13 analyzes the vehicle information stored in the vehicle information storage DB 16 at a predetermined timing such as every predetermined period, and estimates the state at that time, the deterioration state of various consumables, etc. for each vehicle 20. Or predicting the future deterioration state and recording the result in the vehicle situation DB 17.

The estimation / prediction of the deterioration state of the consumable item is performed by, for example, calculating the deterioration rate at the present state of the consumable item or at a predetermined time in the future (specified by the timing, the number of mileage, etc.). For example, the deterioration rate is obtained by multiplying the result obtained by the basic calculation formula that is statically set according to the attribute of the consumable item by the deterioration coefficient that is set based on the fluctuation factors such as the driving condition and the external condition. Ask. Regarding basic calculation formulas, for example, for consumables that can directly determine the degree of deterioration based on numerical values obtained by sensors such as tension of elastic bodies, remaining amount of liquid, thickness of objects, depth of grooves, etc. Can use the acquired value of the sensor as it is, for example, it can be calculated as a ratio (%) to a value that results in a state of 100% deterioration rate that requires immediate replacement.

On the other hand, if the sensor cannot measure the degree of deterioration directly, the deterioration rate will be estimated based on other vehicle information. For example, in the case of engine oil, it is set as “engine speed × traveling kilometer”, and is a base value (“A × B as“ B km travel at A rotation ”) that results in a 100% deterioration rate that requires immediate replacement. ) In the case of “a1 rotation for b1 km driving”, “a2 rotation for b2 km driving”, and then “a3 rotation for b3 km driving”, then a1 × b1 + a2 × b2 + a3 × b3) is calculated as a percentage (%). In the present embodiment, the deterioration rate is calculated in%. However, the present invention is not limited to this. Any index that can grasp the deterioration can be used as the degree of deterioration as appropriate.

The corrected deterioration rate can be calculated by further multiplying this value by the deterioration coefficient. The deterioration coefficient is set based on, for example, a result of analyzing a correlation between a fluctuation factor such as a travel area, road conditions, weather, load capacity, driver attributes, and quality of consumables and a deterioration rate. For example, for consumables that are said to deteriorate as the traveling speed increases or the loading capacity increases, the deterioration coefficient is adjusted to increase as the traveling speed or loading capacity of the vehicle 20 and the integration time increase. Can do. In addition, by linking with a map service (not shown), for example, the altitude of the driving location, regional characteristics such as coastal areas and mountainous areas, weather conditions such as temperature, rain and snow, grades of slopes and curves, traffic jams, expressways, etc. It is possible to analyze the correlation between factors such as road conditions and the deterioration rate and adjust the deterioration coefficient. It is also possible to adjust the deterioration coefficient by analyzing the correlation between the deterioration rate and the factors such as the quality and price of the specific vehicle 20, driver, and consumables used.

The analysis on the correlation between the above-described variation factor and the deterioration rate and the determination of the adjustment method of the deterioration rate based on the analysis may be performed by, for example, an administrator based on specific knowledge or the vehicle information accumulation DB 16. A well-known technique such as systematic analysis of such data to automatically extract a trend may be used, or these techniques may be appropriately combined.

The plan management unit 14 has a function of drafting a maintenance plan for one or more vehicles 20 units and managing the update and the like. A maintenance plan is automatically drawn up and updated based on information on the current deterioration state of consumables recorded in the vehicle status DB 17 and information on evaluation results for a maintenance plan by the plan evaluation unit 15 described later. May be. For example, when the replacement time of each consumable is set to be when the predicted deterioration rate exceeds a predetermined value (for example, 80%), the point in time for the consumable that has the earliest replacement time thereafter Although the predicted value of the deterioration rate at the time point does not reach the replacement time, consumables exceeding a predetermined value (for example, 70%) can be replaced as a target for replacement.

In addition, based on the basic contents of the maintenance plan input and instructed from the carrier via the carrier terminal 40, the maintenance plan may be set based on this, and the correction or adjustment may be performed. . Also, regardless of the maintenance timing based on the maintenance plan, if there is a consumable item whose deterioration rate has reached the replacement timing, an emergency maintenance instruction may be given at any time. In both maintenance and emergency maintenance based on the maintenance plan, for example, by coordinating with a map service (not shown), for example, the vehicle 20 may be informed of and guided to a maintenance shop near the current position of the vehicle 20. Is possible.

When the maintenance is performed in the maintenance shop according to the maintenance plan registered in the maintenance plan DB 18, the plan evaluation unit 15 provides information on the result, information on the updated vehicle status DB 17, etc., and maintenance in the maintenance plan DB 18. Compare the contents of the plan and evaluate the validity of the maintenance plan. For example, for consumables that have been replaced or not, compare the predicted deterioration state with the actual deterioration state ascertained at the maintenance shop, and evaluate the appropriateness of the deterioration coefficient when calculating the deterioration rate. . Based on the result of a plurality of maintenances including a plurality of vehicles 20, statistical analysis may be performed to extract factors that may affect the deterioration rate, and the adjustment method for the deterioration coefficient may be changed.

Further, the plan evaluation unit 15 calculates cost performance information based on the correlation between the price of the consumables and the period until replacement based on a plurality of evaluation results for the same type of consumables, evaluate. Here, it is desirable to evaluate from the viewpoint of the life cycle cost (LCC) of the entire assumed useful life of the vehicle 20. For example, consumables with high prices (high quality and performance) but a short period until replacement, and consumables with a low price but a long period until replacement, the former may be cheaper as a life cycle cost. possible. In addition, consumables with lower prices may be sufficiently usable. It can also be affected by the labor required to replace and install consumables.

Further, the plan evaluation unit 15 adjusts the maintenance time, adds / deletes the consumable to be replaced, and the cost registered in the consumable master DB 19 based on the evaluation result for the next maintenance plan, for example. It has a function of updating the maintenance plan DB 18 by correcting changes to other consumables with high performance, adjusting the deterioration coefficient when calculating the deterioration rate, and the like. In addition to the subsequent evaluation of the maintenance plan based on the result of the maintenance, a process for reviewing the next maintenance plan in advance based on information such as the current deterioration state of consumables recorded in the vehicle status DB 17 May be performed. In addition, not only the review of the maintenance plan, but for example, when there is a tendency that the deterioration rate is high for a specific driver, by notifying the driver of the fact by operating the message It is also possible to provide guidance on

As described above, the vehicle preventive maintenance server 10 has, for example, a web server program (not shown), and provides a service for supporting the creation of the maintenance plan as described above as a web service via the network 50.

On the other hand, the vehicle 20 has a vehicle information acquisition unit 21 for acquiring and collecting various types of vehicle information, controls the behavior of the vehicle based on the acquired vehicle information, and transmits the vehicle information to the network 50 through wireless communication. The control part 22 which has a communication function which transmits to the vehicle preventive maintenance server 10 via this is provided. The vehicle information acquisition unit 21 collects, for example, information collected from the ECU via CAN (Control Area Network), position information obtained by GPS, information from sensors installed in various places of the vehicle 20, and the like.

The control unit 22 acquires the vehicle information data acquired and collected by the vehicle information acquisition unit 21 periodically or at any time using a mobile communication system such as 3G or 4G via the network 50 and the vehicle preventive maintenance server 10. Upload to. It has a configuration in which information related to a maintenance plan such as the arrival of maintenance time, control information for the vehicle 20, etc. is transmitted to the vehicle 20 from the vehicle preventive maintenance server 10 or another system, or downloaded by the vehicle 20. Also good.

FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an outline of an example of the PDCA cycle that can be realized by using the preventive maintenance service in the present embodiment. For example, the carrier can first create a maintenance plan using the vehicle preventive maintenance system 1 and register it in the maintenance plan DB 18 (S01). Thereafter, while the vehicle 20 actually travels (S02), the vehicle preventive maintenance server 10 collects vehicle information transmitted from the vehicle 20 and records it in the vehicle information accumulation DB 16 (S03).

The vehicle preventive maintenance server 10 analyzes the contents of the vehicle information storage DB 16 at a predetermined timing, and predicts the deterioration state of the consumables in the vehicle 20 based on the analysis result (S04). At this point, the maintenance plan may be corrected / corrected. Thereafter, the maintenance of the vehicle 20 is actually performed according to the maintenance plan, and the consumable to be replaced is replaced (S05). At this time, based on the results of maintenance, evaluate the validity of the maintenance plan and the prediction of the deterioration state of consumables, correct the maintenance plan, and adjust the deterioration coefficient when predicting the deterioration state of consumables By doing so (S06), a new next maintenance plan is drawn up (S01). By realizing such a PDCA cycle, it is possible to gradually improve the accuracy of the maintenance plan.

<Data structure>
FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an outline of an example of the data configuration of the vehicle information accumulation DB 16 in the present embodiment. The vehicle information accumulation DB 16 is a table that records vehicle information collected for each vehicle 20 and information related to maintenance processing results, such as a time stamp, vehicle ID, vehicle information ID, vehicle information content, and additional information. Each item.

The time stamp item holds the time stamp information at the time when the target vehicle information is acquired. When time stamp information cannot be acquired from the vehicle 20, the time stamp recorded at the time of recording in the vehicle information storage DB 16 is used. The item of vehicle ID holds information such as an ID that can uniquely identify the vehicle 20 that acquired the target vehicle information. The item of vehicle information ID holds information such as an ID and a code value that can uniquely identify the type of the target vehicle information. Vehicle information types include, for example, vehicle speed, engine speed, travel distance, GPS position information, temperature information at various locations, remaining oil and battery capacity, loading capacity, ETC (Electronic Collection system) (registered trademark) Such information may be included.

The item of vehicle information content holds the content of the target vehicle information. The layout and format may vary depending on the type of vehicle information. For example, the information can be grasped by a predetermined method based on the vehicle information ID. In the additional information item, information related to a variation factor for the vehicle 20 at the time when the target vehicle information is acquired is acquired from the related information acquisition unit 12 or the like as needed. As the additional information, for example, when the vehicle information is GPS position information, weather information such as the weather, temperature, and humidity of the target area at the time of the time stamp can be added. It is also possible to add road information such as whether or not the running road is an expressway. These pieces of information can be added asynchronously with the recording of the vehicle information as necessary.

FIG. 4 is a diagram showing an outline of an example of the data configuration of the vehicle situation DB 17 in the present embodiment. In the present embodiment, the vehicle status DB 17 includes a vehicle information DB 17a that holds information at the time of each vehicle 20 in units of vehicles 20, that is, information at the time when the information is recorded / updated, and a current time in units of consumables. It consists of two tables of the consumable information DB 17b that holds the information.

FIG. 4A shows the vehicle information DB 17a among the DBs constituting the vehicle situation DB 17. FIG. The vehicle information DB 17a includes items such as a vehicle ID, a vehicle status, a driver ID, a travel distance, a current position, a previous maintenance date, a previous maintenance distance, a next maintenance scheduled date, and a next maintenance planned distance.

The item of vehicle ID holds information such as an ID that can uniquely identify the target vehicle 20. Note that, using this vehicle ID as a key, for example, a master information such as the vehicle type of the target vehicle 20 can be acquired by accessing a vehicle master table (not shown) or the like. The vehicle status item holds information such as a code value indicating the current status of the target vehicle 20. For example, it can be indicated by a code value indicating a status such as normal / abnormal, running / stopped. The item of driver ID holds ID information or the like for identifying a person assigned to the target vehicle 20 as a driver.

The item of travel distance holds information on the travel distance (km) accumulated from the beginning of shipment of the target vehicle 20. The item of current position holds information such as latitude / longitude indicating the current position acquired by GPS in the target vehicle 20. The items of the previous maintenance date and time and the previous maintenance distance hold information on the date and time and the travel distance when the previous maintenance was performed on the target vehicle 20, respectively. The items of the next maintenance date and time and the next maintenance distance hold information about the date and time when the next maintenance is scheduled to be performed in the target vehicle 20 and the travel distance, respectively.

FIG. 4B is a diagram showing the consumable information DB 17b among the DBs constituting the vehicle situation DB 17. FIG. The consumable information DB 17b includes items such as a vehicle ID, a consumable ID, a previous replacement date, a previous replacement distance, and a deterioration rate, for example. The item of vehicle ID is information such as an ID that identifies the target vehicle 20, and has the same content as the item of vehicle ID in the vehicle information DB 17a. The item of consumable item ID holds information such as an ID and a model number that can uniquely identify the consumable item attached to the target vehicle 20. This consumable ID is defined in, for example, a consumable master DB 19 described later.

前回 Each item of last replacement date and last replacement distance retains information on the date and distance traveled when the target consumable was last replaced. If the travel distance does not contribute as a parameter when determining the replacement time for the target consumable, it is not necessary to set a value in the previous replacement distance item. The deterioration rate item holds information on the current deterioration rate calculated and predicted for the target consumable.

FIG. 5 is a diagram showing an outline of an example of the data configuration of the maintenance plan DB 18 in the present embodiment. The maintenance plan DB 18 is a table that holds information about a maintenance plan and its implementation status. For example, a maintenance plan ID, a vehicle ID, a scheduled date, one or more scheduled consumable IDs to be removed, a planned consumable ID to be installed, and an implementation Each item includes a day, an implementation maintenance factory, one or more removed consumable IDs, and a mounting consumable ID.

The maintenance plan ID item holds information such as an ID and a sequence number that can uniquely identify the target maintenance plan. The item of vehicle ID is information such as an ID for specifying the vehicle 20 to be maintained in the target maintenance plan, and has the same content as the item of vehicle ID in the vehicle information DB 17a described above. The scheduled date item holds information on a scheduled date for performing maintenance related to the target maintenance plan. Each item of the consumable item ID to be removed and the consumable item ID to be attached is information such as an ID for specifying the consumable item to be replaced and the newly installed consumable item in the maintenance related to the target maintenance plan. These IDs are defined in, for example, a consumable material master DB 19 described later. Multiple consumables to be exchanged can be registered. Further, information on the quantity to be exchanged may be included.

<Effective date and each item of the execution maintenance factory respectively hold the date when the maintenance related to the target maintenance plan was actually performed and information for specifying the maintenance factory. Each item of the removed consumable ID and the attached consumable ID is information such as an ID for identifying the consumable actually exchanged and the newly attached consumable in the maintenance related to the target maintenance plan. Similarly, these IDs are defined in, for example, a consumables master DB 19 described later. Multiple replacement consumables can be registered. Moreover, the information of the exchanged quantity may be included.

FIG. 6 is a diagram showing an outline of an example of the data configuration of the consumable material master DB 19 in the present embodiment. The consumable item master DB 19 is a table that holds master information about consumable items that are attached to the vehicle 20 or that can be exchanged and attached during maintenance. For example, the consumable item ID, consumable item name, and unit price , Installation labor, basic calculation formula for deterioration rate, and factors for adjusting deterioration coefficient.

The item of consumable ID holds information such as ID, product number, and model number that can uniquely identify the target consumable. The consumables are not limited to solid materials, but also include liquids such as oil and coolant, and gases. The item of the consumable item name holds display information such as the product name, grade, and quantity of the target consumable item. The items of unit price and installation wage hold information on the unit price of the target consumable and the wage when replacing and mounting the target consumable, respectively. These pieces of information are the basis for calculating the life cycle cost related to maintenance of consumables. Note that the mounting includes a work of filling and replenishing liquid such as oil.

The item of deterioration rate basic calculation formula holds information such as a basic formula for calculating a deterioration rate for a target consumable or a parameter to be used. For example, as described above, when the target consumable is engine oil, the deterioration rate basic calculation formula is expressed as “engine speed × traveling km”. In this way, when the calculation is performed by multiplying each parameter, only the parameter may be specified.

Degradation factor adjustment factor items include formulas for determining the degradation factor when correcting the degradation rate calculated by the above basic calculation formula for degradation factors, taking into account various factors and conditions, or parameters used Hold. As described above, for example, factors that affect the deterioration rate based on the analysis results of the correlation between the deterioration rate and the fluctuation factors such as travel area, road conditions, weather, loading capacity, driver attributes, and quality of consumables When a parameter exceeds or falls below a predetermined threshold, a predetermined value (for example, 0.1) may be added to or subtracted from a deterioration coefficient (for example, initial value = 1.0). it can. Therefore, for example, the item holds information such as one or more factors and parameter types that can vary the deterioration coefficient and their threshold values, and whether to add or subtract.

Note that the data configuration (items) of each table shown in FIGS. 3 to 6 is merely an example, and other table configurations and data configurations can be used as long as similar data can be held and managed. It may be.

As described above, according to the vehicle preventive maintenance system 1 according to the first embodiment of the present invention, for example, in a transportation company or the like, vehicle information is collected and managed centrally by telematics. Based on the estimation result, it is possible to quantitatively estimate the deterioration state of the consumables and to support the efficient maintenance plan planning and management based on the estimation result. In this maintenance plan, from the viewpoint of preventive maintenance, in addition to the contents such as when to perform maintenance (next time or later) of each vehicle and which consumables are to be replaced at a time, which consumables are to be replaced Information on whether to use parts is included. In addition, even for the same consumable item, it is possible to select a component that can reduce the life cycle cost most in terms of price and quality.

In addition to planning maintenance plans, we evaluate the appropriateness of maintenance plans based on the results of maintenance based on them, and feed back the results to maintenance plans to optimize the next maintenance plan. The PDCA cycle can be realized and the maintenance plan can be continuously improved.

(Embodiment 2)
In the second embodiment of the present invention, as an example of utilizing telematics, for example, information on each vehicle is collected and managed centrally by telematics, and the tendency of the deterioration state and deterioration speed of the consumables is determined based on the information. Vehicle consumables that estimate quantitatively and predict the type and quantity of consumables that need to be replaced for a given period for each vehicle that can receive maintenance at each maintenance plant based on the estimation results The demand prediction system will be described.

<System configuration>
FIG. 7 is a diagram showing an outline of a configuration example of the vehicle consumables demand prediction system according to the second embodiment of the present invention. The vehicle consumables demand prediction system 2 is configured such that, for example, the vehicle consumables demand prediction server 60 receives vehicle information from one or more vehicles 20 owned or managed by an individual or a carrier via a network 50 such as wireless communication and the Internet. By acquiring, collecting, and analyzing this, a telematics service is provided that outputs demand forecast data 62 that predicts the type and quantity of consumables that need to be replaced in a predetermined period. . As in the first embodiment, not only the collection of vehicle information from the vehicle 20, but also vehicle information, maintenance information, and the like are acquired from the maintenance factory where the vehicle 20 has performed maintenance through the maintenance factory terminal 30. May be.

In the present embodiment, the consumables are not limited to the parts attached to the vehicle 20, but include fuel (gasoline, electricity, hydrogen, etc.). Therefore, for example, a fuel demand prediction system that collects fuel consumption status of each vehicle by telematics and estimates the fuel supply time of each vehicle based on this, thereby predicting the fuel demand at the refueling station It is also possible.

The vehicle 20 is the same as the vehicle 20 in the first embodiment. The vehicle 20 acquires and collects various types of vehicle information, and controls the behavior of the vehicle based on the acquired vehicle information. It has the control part 22 which has a communication function which transmits vehicle information to the vehicle consumable goods demand prediction server 60 via the network 50 by radio | wireless communication.

The vehicle consumables demand prediction server 60 is a server system implemented by, for example, a server device in a data center or a virtual server constructed on a cloud computing service, like the vehicle preventive maintenance server 10 of the first embodiment. Each unit such as a vehicle information collection unit 11, a related information acquisition unit 12, an analysis unit 13 ′, and a demand prediction unit 61, which is implemented as a software program that runs on middleware such as an OS, DBMS, or Web server program (not shown) Have The vehicle information storage DB 16, the vehicle status DB 17 ′, the consumables status DB 63, the deterioration speed tendency DB 64, the consumables master DB 19 ′, and the maintenance factory master DB 65 are included in each database and table.

The vehicle information collection unit 11 and the related information acquisition unit 12 are the same as those in the first embodiment, and the vehicle information collection unit 11 is connected to the vehicle 20 via the network 50 from each vehicle 20, the maintenance shop terminal 30, and the like. Vehicle information and information related to the results of maintenance processing are collected and collected periodically or as needed, and recorded in the vehicle information storage DB 16. In addition, the related information acquisition unit 12 acquires external related information that can affect the operation and state of the vehicle 20 corresponding to the vehicle information recorded in the vehicle information accumulation DB 16 from an external service or the like (not shown), It has a function of recording in the vehicle information accumulation DB 16 individually or in combination with vehicle information.

Similarly to the analysis unit 13 in the first embodiment, the analysis unit 13 ′ analyzes the vehicle information stored in the vehicle information storage DB 16 at a predetermined timing such as every predetermined period, and at each time point for each vehicle 20 at that time. And a deterioration state of various consumables, and a future deterioration state are predicted, and the result is recorded in the vehicle state DB 17 ′ and the like. In the first embodiment, the information on the deterioration status of the consumables is also stored in the vehicle status DB 17 as the consumable information DB 17b as shown in FIG. 4B. In the present embodiment, Only the vehicle information DB 17a shown in FIG. 4A is held in the vehicle status DB 17, and information relating to consumables including the degradation status is extracted and held as the consumable status DB 63.

In other words, the analysis unit 13 ′ analyzes the vehicle information storage DB 16 to obtain information on the situation of each vehicle, records the information in the vehicle situation DB 17 ′, and determines the deterioration status of the consumables attached to each vehicle. Such information is obtained and recorded in the consumable item status DB 63. In the present embodiment, the information on the deterioration status of consumables is accumulated and held as a history on a daily basis, for example. The analysis unit 13 ′ estimates the deterioration rate of each consumable item quantitatively by statistical processing or the like based on the history information of the deterioration state of the consumable item stored in the consumable item state DB 63, and records it in the deterioration rate tendency DB 64. To do.

In response to a request from the maintenance shop via the maintenance shop terminal 30, the demand prediction unit 61 is based on information such as the vehicle status DB 17 ′, the deterioration speed trend DB 64, the consumables master DB 19 ′, and the maintenance shop master DB 65. It has a function of predicting the type and quantity of consumables that need to be replaced during a designated period in the maintenance shop and responding to the maintenance shop terminal 30 as demand prediction data 62.

The maintenance factory terminal 30 includes, for example, an inventory management system that manages the inventory of consumables, an inventory management unit 31 that is implemented as software, and a consumables inventory DB 32 that is implemented as a database. In response to an instruction from the user, the maintenance shop terminal 30 requests the vehicle consumables demand prediction server 60 to execute a demand forecast for each consumable by designating a period and a date, and the demand as a processing result. Prediction data 62 is acquired. Then, for example, the acquired demand prediction data 62 and the consumables inventory DB 32 are matched to calculate the shortage of inventory. The data for the shortage of inventory is linked as input data to an order receiving / ordering system (not shown) for ordering, for example.

<Method for forecasting demand for consumables>
In the present embodiment, the vehicle consumable demand forecast server 60 predicts the type and quantity of consumables that need to be replaced in a predetermined period as the demand forecast for consumables in response to a request from the maintenance shop terminal 30. To do. Similar to the first embodiment, in this embodiment, the deterioration status (deterioration degree) of consumables is grasped as, for example, the deterioration rate (0% for new products, immediate replacement at 100%), and the deterioration rate is consumed. When a predetermined value set for each product is reached, it must be replaced. Here, when the timing for replacement is within the predetermined period, the consumable is a target of demand.

In order to estimate the timing at which the deterioration rate of the consumables reaches a predetermined value, in this embodiment, the deterioration rate (deterioration rate) is obtained by statistically processing the deterioration rate history information accumulated for each type of consumables. The timing is estimated based on this and the current deterioration rate. The deterioration rate is calculated by, for example, the increase rate of the deterioration rate per unit period (1 day, 1 week, etc.).

This deterioration rate is not always a constant value for each consumable. Depending on the characteristics of the consumables, for example, there may be fluctuations due to the temperature such as fast consumption in summer, and there may be changes due to the climate such as fast consumption in the rainy season or snowy season. Therefore, in the present embodiment, the deterioration rate is calculated individually for each consumable item in the management period (for example, semi-annual, quarterly, monthly, etc.) to improve accuracy.

FIG. 8 is a diagram showing an outline of an example of transition of the deterioration state of consumables. The arrows in the figure schematically show the transition of the deterioration rate in units of quarters corresponding to spring, summer, autumn and winter, and the deterioration rate increases with the passage of time (that is, the remaining capacity (FIG. 8). Also, FIG. 9 described later shows a situation in which (represented schematically by a diagram of the remaining battery level) is decreasing / degrading). Here, the inclination of the arrow, that is, the deterioration rate varies depending on the season. In this case, as shown in the figure, for example, the consumables have different degradation rates such as “5”, “8”, “3”, and “1” for the spring, summer, and autumn, respectively, with a management period of quarter. Will be calculated. For example, the deterioration rate of “5” in the spring quarter means that “the deterioration rate increases by 5 points throughout the spring quarter”.

FIG. 9 is a diagram showing an outline of an example of the demand number of consumables. The number of demands is the quantity of consumables that need to be replaced in a predetermined period. In the figure, the predetermined period is indicated as an “target period” by an arrow. For example, it is assumed that there are four vehicles 20 that will be maintained in the target maintenance factory, that is, four vehicles 20 in which the base is located in the area covered by the target maintenance factory as illustrated in the beginning of the target period. In this case, the deterioration rate (or remaining capacity) at that time may be different for a certain consumable item attached to each vehicle 20.

Here, with respect to the consumables, the deterioration rate is calculated for each management period based on the concept shown in FIG. 8 described above, and this is applied to each management period included in the target period to be attached to each vehicle 20. The timing at which the deterioration rate of the consumables exceeds the threshold value that requires replacement (that is, the timing at which the remaining capacity falls below the threshold value that requires replacement) is estimated. The example of FIG. 9 indicates that the deterioration rate of the consumables is estimated to exceed the threshold value within the target period for three of the four units. Here, when the target consumable is, for example, a tire, when four tires are mounted per vehicle 20, a total of 12 is the number of demands.

<Data structure>
FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an outline of an example of the data configuration of the consumable item status DB 63 in the present embodiment. In the present embodiment, the consumable item status DB 63 includes a consumable item deterioration status DB 63a that holds information such as a deterioration status at that time as a history for each consumable unit, and a deterioration status accumulated in the consumable item deterioration status DB 63a. This information is composed of two tables of a consumable item deterioration status totaling DB 63b that holds information for each consumable item and collects the information in units of a certain period such as daily. It should be noted that the consumable item deterioration state DB 63a is a table obtained by extracting a table corresponding to the consumable item information DB 17b from the vehicle state DB 17 shown in FIG. 4 in the first embodiment and reconfiguring it as a part of the consumable item state DB 63. be able to.

FIG. 10A is a diagram showing the consumable deterioration state DB 63a among the DBs constituting the consumable state DB 63. FIG. The consumable item deterioration status DB 63a includes items such as a consumable item ID, a deterioration rate, a recording date and time, and a consumable item location. The item of consumable item ID holds identification information such as an ID that can uniquely identify the consumable item attached to the vehicle 20. The value of the consumable item ID is defined in a consumable item master DB 19 'to be described later. Note that the consumable ID here is assigned to each individual component attached to the vehicle 20. That is, when a plurality of consumables of the same type are attached to the vehicle 20 (for example, tires and screws), individual consumable IDs are attached to the plurality of consumables (for example, “tire A”). , “Tire B”, “Tire C”, “Tire D”, etc.).

The item of deterioration rate holds information on the current deterioration rate calculated and estimated for the target consumable. Instead of the deterioration rate, an index relating to the remaining capacity may be held. The recording date / time item holds time stamp information when the record is recorded. Thereby, the transition of the deterioration rate of a specific consumable can be grasped in time series. The item of the location of the consumable item holds information for specifying the position of the target consumable item. For example, information such as latitude and longitude indicating the current position acquired by GPS in the vehicle 20 to which the consumable item is attached is stored. It may be held as information on the current position of the moving vehicle 20, may be held as the location of the storage / management place of the vehicle 20, or both values may be held.

FIG. 10B is a diagram showing the consumables deterioration status totalization DB 63b among the DBs constituting the consumables status DB 63. As shown in FIG. The consumable item deterioration status summary DB 63b includes items such as a consumable item name, quantity, deterioration rate, recording date, and consumable item location. Each item of consumable name and quantity holds information on the name of the target consumable and the number of the target consumables attached to the vehicle 20. When a plurality of consumables of the same type are attached to the vehicle 20, the plurality of consumables are all assigned the same consumable name and handled together (for example, “four tires”). The value of the consumable item name is defined in the consumable item master DB 19 'to be described later.

The item of deterioration rate is the same as the deterioration rate in the consumable deterioration state DB 63a in FIG. 10A, and holds, for example, a value such as an average value obtained by collecting and summing them up in units of a certain period. The record date item holds information on the date when the history stored in the consumables deterioration status DB 63a in FIG. 10A is collected and aggregated in units such as daily in order to obtain the target record. To do. The item of the location of the consumables is the same as the location of the consumables in the consumables deterioration status DB 63a of FIG. 10A, and holds, for example, a value such as an average value obtained by collecting and consolidating them in units of a certain period. .

FIG. 11 is a diagram showing an outline of an example of the data configuration of the deterioration rate tendency DB 64 in the present embodiment. The deterioration rate trend DB 64 is a table that holds information on the deterioration rate estimated by the analysis unit 13 ′ based on the history information of the deterioration state of the consumables accumulated in the consumable state DB 63 shown in FIG. For example, each item includes a consumable name, a management period, a deterioration rate, and a target area.

The item of consumable name stores information on the name of the consumable that specifies the type of the consumable. The value of the consumable item name is defined in the consumable item master DB 19 'to be described later. The management period holds information on the management period corresponding to the deterioration rate of the target consumable. For example, “1st half”, “2nd half”, etc. when the management period is half-year, “1st quarter”, “2nd quarter”, “spring”, “summer”, etc. Values such as “month” and “February” are set. The item of the degradation rate holds a value calculated by the analysis unit 13 ′ as the degradation rate in the target management period of the target consumable.

The item of the target area holds information such as a code value that identifies the area to which the target deterioration rate is applied. The value of the target area is registered, for example, in a maintenance factory master DB 65, which will be described later, thereby associating the target consumable item with the maintenance factory that performs maintenance on the target consumable. The value of the name of the maintenance shop that performs maintenance may be directly specified.

FIG. 12 is a diagram showing an outline of an example of the data configuration of the consumable material master DB 19 ′ in the present embodiment. The consumables master DB 19 ′ has items such as a management period type and a required maintenance deterioration rate in addition to the data structure similar to that of the consumables master DB 19 shown in FIG. 6 of the first embodiment. Description of items having the same contents as the consumables master DB 19 shown in FIG. 6 is omitted. The management period type item holds information on the type of management period (for example, semi-annual, quarterly, monthly, etc.) for managing the deterioration rate of the target consumable item. The maintenance deterioration rate item holds information on a threshold value of a deterioration rate that requires replacement of a target consumable.

FIG. 13 is a diagram showing an outline of an example of the data configuration of the maintenance factory master DB 65 in the present embodiment. The maintenance factory master DB 65 is a table that holds master information about a maintenance factory that performs maintenance of the vehicle 20, and includes items such as a maintenance factory name, a position, and a cover area.

The maintenance factory name item holds information such as a name that can uniquely identify the target maintenance factory. The position item holds latitude / longitude information as the location of the target maintenance shop. You may make it hold | maintain the information of the address which can pinpoint a position. The cover area item holds information on code values and names that specify areas and areas where the target maintenance shop provides maintenance services. The vehicle 20 located in the cover area performs a demand forecast for consumables on the assumption that maintenance is performed in the maintenance factory. The actual area of the cover area can be defined as, for example, a circle with a predetermined radius centered on the position of the maintenance shop. A plurality of vertex coordinate values may be held and defined as a rectangle or a polygon specified by these coordinates.

Note that the data configuration (items) of each table shown in FIGS. 10 to 13 is merely an example, and other table configurations and data configurations can be used as long as similar data can be held and managed. It may be.

As described above, according to the vehicle consumables demand prediction system 2 according to the second embodiment of the present invention, the tendency of the deterioration state and deterioration speed of consumables is quantified based on the information of each vehicle collected by telematics. In addition, it is possible to predict the type and quantity of consumables that need to be replaced in a predetermined period for each vehicle that can receive maintenance at the maintenance plant, based on the estimation result.

As mentioned above, the invention made by the present inventor has been specifically described based on the embodiments. However, the present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments, and various modifications can be made without departing from the scope of the invention. Needless to say.

Further, the above embodiment has been described in detail for easy understanding of the present invention, and is not necessarily limited to the one having all the described configurations. Further, a part of the configuration of one embodiment can be replaced with the configuration of another embodiment, and the configuration of another embodiment can be added to the configuration of one embodiment. . Further, it is possible to add, delete, and replace other configurations for a part of the configuration of each embodiment.

Further, in each of the above drawings, control lines and information lines indicate what is considered necessary for explanation, and not all control lines and information lines on mounting are necessarily shown. Actually, it may be considered that almost all the components are connected to each other.

The present invention can be used for a vehicle consumables demand prediction system and a vehicle consumables demand prediction program that use telematics to predict the demand for consumables required for vehicle maintenance.

1 ... Vehicle preventive maintenance system, 2 ... Vehicle consumables demand forecast system,
DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 10 ... Vehicle preventive maintenance server, 11 ... Vehicle information collection part, 12 ... Related information acquisition part, 13, 13 '... Analysis part, 14 ... Plan management part, 15 ... Plan evaluation part, 16 ... Vehicle information storage database (DB) , 17, 17 '... vehicle status DB, 18 ... maintenance plan DB, 19, 19' ... consumables master DB,
20 ... Vehicle, 21 ... Vehicle information acquisition unit, 22 ... Control unit,
30 ... Maintenance factory terminal, 31 ... Inventory management department, 32 ... Consumables inventory DB,
40 ... carrier terminal,
50 ... Network,
60 ... Vehicle consumables demand prediction server, 61 ... Demand forecasting unit, 62 ... Demand forecast data, 63 ... Consumables status DB, 64 ... Degradation speed tendency DB, 65 ... Maintenance factory master DB.

Claims

A vehicle consumables demand prediction system that predicts the type and quantity of consumables required for vehicle maintenance in a predetermined period at a vehicle maintenance factory,
Vehicle information collected in each vehicle, and vehicle information collection unit that collects information related to the result of maintenance in the vehicle via a network and records it in a vehicle information storage unit;
Based on the vehicle information recorded in the vehicle information storage unit, the degree of deterioration of consumables in each vehicle is calculated and recorded in the consumable item status storage unit, and the deterioration recorded in the consumable item status storage unit An analysis unit that counts the degree, calculates a degradation rate based on the degree, and records the degradation rate in a degradation rate trend storage unit;
The degree of deterioration of each consumable item recorded in the consumable item status storage unit, the deterioration rate of each consumable item recorded in the deterioration degree trend storage unit, and the degree of deterioration that requires replacement for each consumable item Based on the information including the threshold value of the vehicle, the location of the vehicle to which each consumable is attached, and the area where the maintenance shop provides a service related to maintenance, the maintenance shop within the predetermined period A vehicle consumables demand forecasting system, comprising: a demand forecasting unit that calculates the type and quantity of consumables whose deterioration degree exceeds the threshold and may need to be replaced.
In the vehicle consumables demand prediction system according to claim 1,
The said analysis part is a vehicle consumables demand prediction system which calculates the said deterioration rate separately for every management period.
A vehicle consumables demand forecasting program that causes a computer to execute processing so that it functions as a vehicle consumables demand forecasting system that predicts the type and quantity of consumables required for vehicle maintenance at a vehicle maintenance factory for a predetermined period. And
Vehicle information collection processing for collecting vehicle information collected in each vehicle and information related to the result of maintenance in the vehicle via a network and recording the information in a vehicle information storage unit;
Based on the vehicle information recorded in the vehicle information storage unit, the degree of deterioration of consumables in each vehicle is calculated and recorded in the consumable item status storage unit, and the deterioration recorded in the consumable item status storage unit An analysis process for calculating the degradation rate based on this and calculating the degradation rate based on this, and recording it in the degradation rate trend storage unit,
The degree of deterioration of each consumable item recorded in the consumable item status storage unit, the deterioration rate of each consumable item recorded in the deterioration degree trend storage unit, and the degree of deterioration that requires replacement for each consumable item Based on the information including the threshold value of the vehicle, the location of the vehicle to which each consumable is attached, and the area where the maintenance shop provides a service related to maintenance, the maintenance shop within the predetermined period A vehicle consumables demand forecasting program for causing the computer to execute a demand forecasting process for calculating the type and quantity of consumables whose deterioration degree exceeds the threshold and may need to be replaced.