KR101538140B1 - Apparatus and method for estimating stock price - Google Patents

Abstract

The present invention relates to an apparatus and method for predicting a proper stock price, which is devoted to a method of evaluating a listed company value based on recent earnings such as EPS (Earning Per Share) and PER (Price Earning Ratio) The timing of the sale of stocks is forecasted in consideration of changes in stock prices, trends in stock prices of markets and industries, and stock trading trends of foreign investors and institutional investors.

Description

[0001] Apparatus and method for estimating stock price [

The present invention relates to a stock price prediction technique, and more particularly, to a proper stock price prediction apparatus and method.

It is very important to know when to sell stocks in stock investments. This is because it determines the profit and loss width. Individual investors investing in stocks consider how to find stocks that are highly likely to sell, and how to determine when to sell to increase profits and reduce losses. While many techniques are used to find buyers, most investors are struggling to understand the timing of the sale.

Korean Patent Laid-Open No. 10-2001-0008679 (2001.02.05) proposes stock price prediction technology. Currently, data published by securities firms and research institutes provide target prices higher than current prices, rather than providing fair value of listed stocks. In general, many individual investors use two indicators of EPS (Earning Per Share) and PER (Price Earning Ratio) when evaluating the value of listed stocks. However, EPS (Earnings Per Share) and PER (Price Earning Ratio) are fatal.

For example, if a company has been in the red five years since its listing and it has been in the red until four years after its listing, and if a large profit surplus occurred in five years, the valuation of EPS (Earning Per Share) and PER (Price Earning Ratio) Until the fourth year, the company becomes unsuitable for investment. In the fifth year, it can be analyzed as an undervalued good company that is very suitable for investment. These shortcomings arise because the cumulative earnings of companies are not reflected and reflect only recent earnings.

However, using EPS (Earning Per Share) and PER (Price Earning Ratio), the valuation method of an enterprise is easy and popular. Thus, most individual investors rely on indexes such as EPS (Earning Per Share) and PER (Price Earning Ratio) to assess the value of the company, regardless of whether the market is up or whether supply and demand are positive or negative. As a matter of fact, this type of value investment attracts attention when the market rises, but when the market falls or the change is severe, the value investment method rather causes loss.

In particular, many KOSDAQ stocks, which are so volatile by the so-called operational forces, suddenly surge or plunge unexpectedly as market formation prices deviate from appropriate values. A large number of individual investors are being financially damaged by such an artificial stock price manipulation.

Therefore, the present inventor can easily grasp the selling point of the listed stock owned by the individual investor by judging the appropriate value and the stock price of the listed company by combining technical analysis, basic analysis, and supply and demand for the stocks listed on the stock market We have been studying the appropriate stock price prediction technology.

Korean Patent Publication No. 10-2001-0008679 (2001.02.05)

The present invention was invented under the above-mentioned circumstances. It combines technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and supply and demand for stocks listed on the stock market to judge the fair value and stock price of a publicly traded company, And an object of the present invention is to provide a proper stock price predicting apparatus and method that can make it easy to grasp a stock price.

According to an aspect of the present invention, there is provided a system for estimating a stock price, comprising: a temporary stock price calculating unit for calculating a temporary stock price of a listed stock on the basis of an operating result accumulated after a listing of a listed company and a change amount of the asset; A market correction value calculating unit for calculating a market correction value for the listed listed stocks based on the trend of the stock price index of the stock market to which the listed stock belongs; A business type correction value calculation unit for calculating a business type correction value for the listed listed stock based on the trend of the stock price index of the business type to which the listed stock belongs; A supply / demand correction value calculating unit for calculating a supply / demand correction value for the listed stocks based on demand / supply for the listed stock for the specified period; A correct stock price calculating unit for calculating a final correct stock price by reflecting the market correction value, the industry correction value, and the supply and demand correction value to the temporary stock price calculated by the temporary stock price calculating unit; And the like.

According to a further aspect of the present invention, the temporary stock price is calculated by a basic analysis method using the disclosure information and the price information of the company in which the temporary stock price price calculation unit is disclosed at specific periods.

According to a further aspect of the present invention, the market correction value calculation unit calculates a market correction value by a moving average line analysis method using the daily closing price of the stock price index of the market in which the listed stock is included.

According to a further aspect of the present invention, the industry type correction value calculation unit calculates the industry type correction value using a moving average line analysis method using the closing price of each business type to which the listed listed industry belongs.

According to a further aspect of the present invention, the supply and demand correction value calculating unit calculates the supply and demand correction value by a technical analysis method using net buying information of foreigners and institutional investors for a specified period of time for the listed listed stocks.

According to another aspect of the present invention, there is provided a method for estimating a stock price, comprising: a temporary stock price calculating step of calculating a temporary stock price of a listed stock on the basis of an operating result accumulated after the listing of a listed company and a change amount of the asset; A market correction value calculation step of calculating a market correction value for the listed listed stocks based on the stock market index change trend of the stock market to which the listed stocks belong; A business type correction value calculation step of calculating a business type correction value for the listed listed stock based on the stock index change tendency of the business type to which the listed stock belongs; A supply / demand correction value calculation step of calculating a supply / demand correction value for the listed stocks based on the demand / supply for the specified period of time for the listed stocks; A correct stock price calculating step of calculating a final correct stock price by reflecting the market correction value, the industry correction value, and the supply and demand correction value to the temporary stock price calculated by the temporary stock price calculating step; And the like.

According to a further aspect of the present invention, the temporary share price is calculated by a basic analysis method using the disclosure information and the ticker information of the company, which is disclosed at every predetermined period in the temporary share price calculation step.

According to a further aspect of the present invention, in the market correction value calculating step, the market correction value is calculated by a moving average line analysis method using the closing price of the listed stocks for each day.

According to a further aspect of the present invention, in the business type correction value calculation step, the business type correction value is calculated by a moving average line analysis method using the closing price of each business type to which the listed stock belongs.

According to a further aspect of the present invention, in the supply and demand correction value calculating step, the supply and demand correction value is calculated by a technical analysis method using net buying information of foreign and institutional investors for a specific period of time for the listed listed stocks.

The present invention is based on the results of the company's business results and assets accumulated since the listing, which are deviated from the method of valuation of listed companies, which were based only on recent earnings such as EPS (Earning Per Share) and PER (Price Earning Ratio) , And the stock trading trends of foreign investors and institutional investors, it is possible to more precisely grasp the selling point of individual investors' stocks.

1 is a block diagram showing a configuration of an embodiment of a correct stock price prediction apparatus according to the present invention.
2 is a flowchart showing an example of a temporary stock price calculating algorithm.
3 is a flowchart showing an example of a market correction value calculating algorithm.
4 is a flowchart showing an example of an industry type correction value calculating algorithm.
5 is a flowchart showing an example of the supply / demand correction value calculating algorithm.
FIG. 6 is a flowchart according to an embodiment of a method for predicting a correct stock price according to the present invention.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS Reference will now be made in detail to embodiments of the present invention, examples of which are illustrated in the accompanying drawings, wherein like reference numerals refer to the like elements throughout.

In the following description of the present invention, a detailed description of known functions and configurations incorporated herein will be omitted when it may make the subject matter of the present invention rather unclear.

The terms used throughout the specification of the present invention have been defined in consideration of the functions of the embodiments of the present invention and can be sufficiently modified according to the intentions and customs of the user or operator. It should be based on the contents of.

1 is a block diagram showing a configuration of an embodiment of a correct stock price prediction apparatus according to the present invention. 1, a temporary stock price predicting apparatus 100 according to the present invention may be implemented by hardware or software installed in a server or a client apparatus or a combination thereof, and includes a temporary stock price calculating unit 110, A correction value calculating unit 120, a business type correction value calculating unit 130, a supply and demand correction value calculating unit 140, and a correct stock price calculating unit 150. [

The temporary stock price calculating unit 110 calculates the temporary stock price of the listed stock based on the cumulative operating results after the listing of the listed company and the change amount of the asset. For example, if it is assumed that the proper stock forecasting apparatus 100 is implemented with some function module of the online stock trading program, the user selects a specific stock item from the stock list on the online stock trading program, The stock price prediction request event for the stock may be generated.

When the stock price prediction request event for a specific listed stock is generated, the appropriate stock price prediction device 100 is driven and the temporary stock price is calculated by the calculation unit 110 based on the sales performance accumulated after the listing of the listed company and the change amount of the asset Calculate the temporary share price of listed stock.

For example, the temporary stock price calculating unit 110 may be configured to calculate the temporary stock price using a basic analysis method using the disclosure information and the ticker information of the company, which is disclosed every predetermined period. During the announcement of the company, the results are published every quarter, and the temporary share price can be calculated by quantifying the accumulated asset changes, the changes in the liabilities, the current prices, and the market capitalization.

The basic analytical method is a method of predicting the stock price of the future by analyzing the intrinsic value of the stock by a traditional stock analysis method. The intrinsic value of a stock is determined by the financial and economic factors of the issuer of the stock and the relationship between these factors and the intrinsic value of the stock is assessed by comparing the intrinsic value expected with the market value of the stock .

The basic analysis classifies the factors of stock price fluctuation into external factors and internal factors. The analytical procedure is based on the process of 'Economic Analysis → Industrial Analysis → Company Analysis' to estimate and evaluate the profit of the company. In other words, by analyzing economic factors such as economy, interest rate, and currency from a macroscopic point of view, we determine stock price trends. The elements used in the basic analysis include the earnings, capital, financial structure, profitability, operating profits, etc. of quantifiable companies, macroeconomic flows that are not quantifiable, and exchange rate volatility.

2 is a flowchart showing an example of a temporary stock price calculating algorithm. Referring to FIG. 2, in a financial information inquiry step 210, the financial information of the listed company is inquired based on the K-IFRS connection standard. The K-IFRS consolidated basis is an accounting standard published by the International Accounting Standards Committee (IASC) for the purpose of enhancing the international uniformity of accounting procedures and financial statements of companies. .

When there are statistically independent business groups that are closely linked to each other economically, it is advantageous for them to be considered as one organization and to prepare the financial statements to grasp the actual condition of the enterprises as economic unity. As a result, the consolidated financial statements have been institutionalized and this system is also effective in preventing unforeseen events such as misinterpretation of the subsidiary's accounting using the subsidiary's accounting.

When the financial information of a listed company is searched based on the K-IFRS consolidated basis, the total amount of listed assets and the total amount of liabilities of the listed companies are compared through the total amount of assets view step 220 and the total amount of liabilities view step 230, And calculates the total amount of capital of listed companies through the calculation step of capital amount (240).

Next, the current price of the listed stocks listed on the stock market such as KOSPI, KOSDAQ, etc. and the market value of the stock are displayed through a listing price present price inquiry step 250 and a market price inquiry step 260 .

Then, the weighted value is calculated based on the market value of the listed stock through the weight applying step 270, and the temporary stock price is calculated by applying the weight to the total amount of capital through the temporary stock price calculating step 280. [

For example, the weighted value may be in the range of 150% to 250% of the total capital amount, and if the weighted value is less than 150% or more than 250% is applied, an error may occur in calculating the appropriate stock price. Weights should be as close to 150% as the market capitalization is bigger. If the equation is expressed as 'temporary stock price = {(total amount of capital * weight) / total market value} * present price'.

The market correction value calculating unit 120 calculates a market correction value for the listed listed stocks based on the stock index change trend of the stock market to which the listed stocks belong. For example, the market correction value calculator 120 may calculate the market correction value using a moving average line analysis method using the daily closing price of the stock price index of the market in which the listed stock is located.

3 is a flowchart showing an example of a market correction value calculating algorithm. Referring to FIG. 3, in the daily stock closing price inquiry step 310, in the stock market including KOSPI and KOSDAQ, 120 recent closing prices of the stock quotes of the listed stocks are displayed The 60-day moving average value calculation step 320 and the 120-day moving average value calculation step 330 respectively calculate the 60-day moving average value and the 120-day moving average value through the 60-day moving average calculation step 320 and the 120-day moving average value calculation step 330, Lt; / RTI >

The 60-day moving average is the average of the past 60 prices of the stock price index of the listed stocks based on the most recent daily closing price, and the 120-day moving average is the average price It is the average of the past 120 prices of the stock index of the stock market. If the 60-day moving average value is greater than the 120-day moving average value, the market correction value becomes +0.125, and if the 60-day moving average value is smaller than the 120-day moving average value, the market correction value becomes -0.125.

The business type correction value calculation unit 130 calculates a business type correction value for the listed listed stocks based on the stock index change trend of the business category to which the listed stocks belong. For example, the business type correction value calculating unit 130 may calculate the business type correction value using a moving average line analysis method using the closing price of the business type to which the listed stock belongs.

4 is a flowchart showing an example of an industry type correction value calculating algorithm. Referring to FIG. 4, in the step of inquiring the closing price for each business type 120, the latest closing index type 120 of the business type to which the listed stock belongs to the listed stock is inquired, and the 60 day moving average value calculation step 420 and the 120 day moving average value calculation step 430 ) And a moving average value of 120 days, respectively, and calculates a business type correction value by comparing them in a business type correction value calculation step 440.

The 60-day moving average is the average of the past 60 prices based on the most recent daily closing price of the stocks to which the listed stocks belong, and the 120-day moving average is the average of the past 120 It is the average of dog prices. If the 60-day moving average value is larger than the 120-day moving average value, the industry correction value becomes +0.125. If the 60-day moving average value is smaller than the 120-day moving average value, the industry correction value becomes -0.125.

The supply / demand correction value calculation unit 140 calculates the supply and demand correction value for the listed stock based on demand / supply for the specified stock period for the listed stock. For example, the supply / demand correction value calculating unit 140 may calculate the supply and demand correction value using a technical analysis method using net buying information of foreign and institutional investors for a specified period of the listed stock.

5 is a flowchart showing an example of the supply / demand correction value calculating algorithm. Referring to FIG. 4, the cumulative net buying amount of foreign investors and institutional investors during the last 6 months of the listed stock is inquired in the investor net accumulated amount inquiry step 510, and the market correction value and the industry correction value The supply / demand correction value calculating step 530 calculates the supply and demand correction value.

If the market correction value is +0.125 and the industry correction value is +0.125, if the foreigner supply / demand is smaller than the institutional investor supply / demand value, the supply / demand correction value becomes -0.125. If the market correction value is -0.125 and the industry correction value is -0.125, the supply / demand correction value is +0.125 if the foreigner supply / demand is less than the institutional investor supply / demand value. In other cases, the supply / demand correction value is zero.

The appropriate stock price calculating unit 150 reflects the market correction value, the industry correction value and the supply and demand correction value calculated through the technical analysis method to the temporary stock price calculated by the temporary stock price calculating unit 110, Calculate the share price. For example, 'fair value = temporary price * {1 + (market correction value + industry correction value + supply correction value)}'.

The technical analysis method is a method of predicting the stock price of the future by finding the direction of the stock price change using data such as past stock price or transaction volume. The stock price starts with the assumption that it is determined by the demand and supply of the market. In general, the past data of the stock trading are sorted by means of charts and the like to find the direction of stock price change and use it to predict the future stock price .

Accordingly, the present invention is not limited to the method of evaluating the value of a listed company, which is based only on recent earnings, such as EPS (Earning Per Share) and PER (price earning ratio) The timing of the sale of stocks is forecasted in consideration of the fluctuation trends and trends of stock trading of foreign investors and institutional investors.

The corrective stock price prediction operation of the appropriate stock price prediction apparatus according to the present invention as described above will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 6 is a flowchart according to an embodiment of a method for predicting a correct stock price according to the present invention.

First, in the temporary share price calculation step 610, the temporary share price of the listed stock is calculated based on the cumulative sales amount after the listing of the listed company and the change amount of the asset. For example, the temporary stock price may be calculated using the basic analytical method by using the disclosure information and the price information of the company disclosed in the temporary stock price calculating step 610 at every predetermined period. Since we have already explained the temporary stock price calculation algorithm, redundant explanation is omitted.

Then, in the market correction value calculation step 620, the market correction value for the listed listed stock is calculated based on the stock index change trend of the stock market to which the listed stock is included. For example, in the market correction value calculation step 620, the market correction value may be calculated by a moving average line analysis method using the daily closing price of the stock price index of the market in which the listed stock is included. Since we have already discussed the market correction value calculation algorithm, redundant explanation is omitted.

Then, in the business type correction value calculation step 630, the business type correction value for the listed listed stock is calculated based on the stock index change trend of the business category to which the listed listed stock belongs. For example, in the business type correction value calculation step 630, the business type correction value may be calculated using a moving average line analysis method using the closing price of the business type to which the listed stock belongs. Since the correction value calculation algorithm of the industry has been described earlier, redundant explanation is omitted.

Then, in the supply and demand correction value calculating step 640, the supply and demand correction value for the listed stocks is calculated based on the demand / supply for the specified stock period for the listed stocks. For example, in the supply and demand correction value calculating step 640, the supply and demand correction value may be calculated by a technical analysis method using net buying information of foreigners and institutional investors for a specific period of time for the listed listed stocks. Since the supply and demand correction value calculating algorithm has been described earlier, a duplicate description will be omitted.

Then, in the appropriate stock price calculating step 650, the final correct stock price is calculated by reflecting the market correction value, the industry correction value, and the supply and demand correction value to the temporary stock price calculated by the temporary stock price calculation step 610. [ Since we have already explained the fair value calculation, duplicate explanation is omitted.

Accordingly, the present invention is not limited to a method of evaluating a listed company value, which is based on only recent earnings such as EPS (Earning Per Share) and PER (Price Earning Ratio) It is possible to more precisely grasp the selling point of stocks of individual investors by predicting the time of stock trading in consideration of trend of stock price fluctuation of industry and stock trading trend of foreign investors and institutional investors, .

While the present invention has been particularly shown and described with reference to exemplary embodiments thereof, it will be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that various changes in form and details may be made therein without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention as defined by the appended claims. .

INDUSTRIAL APPLICABILITY The present invention is industrially applicable in the field of stock prediction technology and its application technology field.

100: Fair value forecasting device
110: Temporary share price calculation unit
120: Market correction value calculating unit
130: Industry type correction value calculating unit
140: supply and demand correction value calculating unit
150: Fair value calculation unit

Claims (10)

The total amount of the listed companies and the total amount of liabilities of the listed companies are searched to calculate the total amount of capital of the listed listed companies and the current price of the listed listed stocks and the total market value of the listed listed companies are searched, A temporary stock price calculating unit for calculating a temporary stock price of the listed listed stock by applying the calculated weight to the total amount of capital of the listed listed listed company;
A market correction value calculating unit for calculating a market correction value for the listed listed stocks based on the trend of the stock price index of the stock market to which the listed stock belongs;
A business type correction value calculation unit for calculating a business type correction value for the listed listed stock based on the trend of the stock price index of the business type to which the listed stock belongs;
A supply / demand correction value calculating unit for calculating a supply / demand correction value for the listed stocks based on demand / supply for the listed stock for the specified period;
A correct stock price calculating unit for calculating a final correct stock price by reflecting the market correction value, the industry correction value, and the supply and demand correction value to the temporary stock price calculated by the temporary stock price calculating unit;
And a prediction unit for estimating a desired stock price. delete The method according to claim 1,
The market correction value calculation unit:
And calculating a market correction value by calculating a 60-day moving average value and a 120-day moving average value, respectively, by comparing the latest closing prices of the stock indexes of the market in which the listed stocks are included, and comparing them. The method according to claim 1,
The business type correction value calculation unit:
Calculating a 60-day moving average value and a 120-day moving average value of the recent stock index closing prices of the traded stocks belonging to the listed stocks, and comparing the calculated moving average value and the 120-day moving average value to calculate the industry correction value. The method according to claim 1,
The supply / demand correction value calculating section:
The cumulative amount of net buying of foreigners and institutional investors for a specific period of time for the listed stock is inquired and the supply correction correction value is calculated by comparing with the market correction value and the industry correction value. A method for predicting a proper stock price of a proper stock price estimating apparatus,
The total amount of the listed companies and the total amount of liabilities of the listed companies are searched to calculate the total amount of capital of the listed listed companies and the current price of the listed listed stocks and the total market value of the listed listed companies are searched, Calculating a temporary share price for the listed listed stock by applying the calculated weight to the total amount of capital of the listed listed company;
A market correction value calculation step of calculating a market correction value for the listed listed stocks based on the stock market index change trend of the stock market to which the listed stocks belong;
A business type correction value calculation step of calculating a business type correction value for the listed listed stock based on the stock index change tendency of the business type to which the listed stock belongs;
A supply / demand correction value calculation step of calculating a supply / demand correction value for the listed stocks based on the demand / supply for the specified period of time for the listed stocks;
A correct stock price calculating step of calculating a final correct stock price by reflecting the market correction value, the industry correction value, and the supply and demand correction value to the temporary stock price calculated by the temporary stock price calculating step;
Wherein the forecasting step includes the steps of: delete The method according to claim 6,
In the market correction value calculating step:
Calculating a 60-day moving average value and a 120-day moving average value of each of the stock indexes of the market index of the listed stock, and comparing the calculated moving average value and the 120-day moving average value to calculate a market correction value. The method according to claim 6,
In the business type correction value calculating step:
Calculating a 60-day moving average value and a 120-day moving average value of the latest stock indexes of the traded stocks belonging to the listed stocks, and calculating the industry stock value by comparing the moving average value and the 120-day moving average value. The method according to claim 6,
In the supply / demand correction value calculating step:
The cumulative amount of net buying of foreign investors and institutional investors for a specified period of time for the listed stock is inquired and the supply correction correction value is calculated by comparing with the market correction value and the industry correction value.

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