JP7433191B2 - Flood damage response system - Google Patents

Description

The present invention relates to a water damage response system that predicts the occurrence of water damage including flooding and responds to the water damage based on the prediction.

Recently, local warming and local cooling due to the generation and movement of polar vortices are occurring as global weather phenomena caused by rising concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In particular, a rise in seawater temperature associated with local global warming may increase the amount of moisture contained in the atmosphere, leading to an increase in local rainfall and causing flood damage such as river flooding.
In view of this situation, for example, a flood response system has been developed that estimates the probability distribution of flood damage from time-series rainfall information for each location, derives risk indicators, and displays them ( For example, see Patent Document 1).
This flood response system is configured to calculate the risk index derived from the probability distribution of flood damage and the estimated area where flood damage will occur, and display it on a map, thereby estimating the amount of damage caused by flood damage. etc. is configured to be able to execute the following.

Japanese Patent Application Publication No. 2006-4212

When the above-mentioned flood disaster occurs, for example, some areas may be submerged, but if there is gas equipment in the submerged area, including a governor that adjusts the secondary pressure of the gas piping to a predetermined pressure. It may exist. When the gas equipment is submerged in water, it becomes difficult to control the behavior of the equipment, and the pressure on the secondary side may increase due to water pressure. In this case, the gas equipment of the gas consumer on the secondary side may be used. There is a risk that the flame will grow larger and erupt unintentionally.
In order to prevent such a situation from occurring, it is possible to stop gas equipment in areas where relatively high rainfall is expected before a flood occurs; During this period, there is a risk that the gas supply to the gas consumers on the secondary side of the stopped gas equipment will be stopped, which poses a problem from the perspective of convenience.

The present invention has been made in view of the above-mentioned problems, and its purpose is to maintain gas supply to gas consumers as much as possible in the flood-damaged area and its vicinity even when there is a risk of water damage occurring. It is an object of the present invention to provide a flood disaster response system that can effectively prevent accidents associated with an increase in the pressure of gas supplied to gas consumers while suppressing a decrease in convenience due to the increase in gas pressure.

To achieve the above object, there is provided a flood disaster response system that predicts the occurrence of flood damage including flooding and responds to the flood damage based on the prediction, and its characteristic configuration is as follows:
In a gas supply area where gas piping and gas equipment that controls the supply gas pressure in the gas piping are present, the gas supply is determined based on the planned rainfall amount determined for each river and the expected rainfall amount predicted by the rainfall prediction unit. a first flood occurrence prediction region in which the probability of flooding occurring is high; and a flood occurrence prediction unit that predicts a predicted time point at which flooding will occur in the first flood occurrence prediction region;
The gas equipment is pre-shutdowned and the gas supply to the secondary side is stopped from a point before a pre-determined pre-shutdown period before the predicted time of flooding, for the pre-shutdown period and the restoration period required for restoration. , a shutdown determination extraction unit that determines and extracts a preliminary shutdown permissible facility from the gas equipment existing in the first flood prediction area,
The stop determination extraction unit determines the preliminary stop based on the secondary pressure that is the pressure on the secondary side of the gas equipment existing in the gas supply area and the predicted gas consumption amount in the gas consumption unit on the secondary side. Executing a first determination extraction process for determining and extracting the gas equipment that is predicted to be capable of supplying gas to the gas consumption unit on the secondary side over the period and the recovery period as the equipment that is permitted to be shut down in advance. It is in the point of doing.

According to the above characteristic configuration, when the flooding occurrence prediction unit predicts the first flooding occurrence prediction area where flooding is likely to occur and the flooding occurrence prediction time point at which flooding will occur in the first flooding occurrence prediction area, It is possible to determine and extract equipment that is permitted to be stopped in advance from among the gas equipment before the predicted occurrence time point.
In other words, the stop determination extraction unit pre-shuts the gas equipment to stop the gas supply to the secondary side from a point before the pre-determined pre-shutdown period from the predicted time of flooding, for the pre-shutdown period. When determining and extracting gas equipment existing in the first predicted location as a pre-shutdown permissible equipment, the secondary pressure, which is the pressure on the secondary side of the gas equipment existing in the gas supply area, and the gas consumption part on the secondary side Based on the predicted gas consumption amount in Even if the predicted flooding area is flooded, the gas equipment installed in the first predicted flooding area can be stopped according to the judgment as equipment that is permitted to be shut down in advance, and the gas equipment installed in the first predicted flooded area can be stopped. It is possible to prevent flames from erupting due to an increase in gas pressure at a gas consumption unit such as a gas consumer on the secondary side.
Furthermore, when stopping gas equipment, that is, stopping the supply of gas from the primary side to the secondary side via the gas equipment, any gas that exists in the gas piping on the secondary side of the gas equipment during the period of suspension The gas is supplied and used by the gas consuming part of the gas consumer, so when the gas on the secondary side is consumed and the gas pressure falls below a certain value, the gas is supplied to the gas consuming part. There is a risk that supply disruptions may occur.
On the other hand, according to the characteristic configuration described above, the period during which the gas equipment is stopped is determined in advance based on the predicted gas consumption on the secondary side of the stopped gas equipment and the secondary pressure on the secondary side. Only the gas equipment that is predicted to be able to supply gas to the gas consumption parts on the secondary side during the shutdown period is shut down in advance as equipment that is permitted to be shut down in advance. The risk of gas supply failure to the consumption part can be sufficiently reduced.
From the above, even if there is a risk of a flood occurring, the gas supply to gas consumers will be maintained as much as possible in the flood disaster area and its vicinity, and the loss of convenience will be suppressed. It is possible to realize a water damage response system that can effectively prevent accidents caused by increases in supply gas pressure.

Further features of the flood response system are:
The stop determination extraction unit executes the determination extraction after updating the installation status of the gas piping in the gas supply area at the time when the determination extraction is started.

Normally, gas piping undergoes piping extension work, piping renewal work, etc., and the estimated amount of gas consumed on the secondary side of the gas equipment that will be shut down will change depending on the installation status of the gas piping. Become.
According to the characteristic configuration described above, the stop judgment extraction unit executes judgment extraction after updating the gas piping installation situation in the gas supply area at the time when judgment extraction is started, so that Judgment extraction can be performed based on the predicted gas consumption amount calculated based on the predicted gas consumption amount, and the accuracy of judgment of equipment that allows advance shutdown can be further improved.

Further features of the flood response system are:
The pre-shutdown period is a time period during which the pre-shutdown permitted equipment as the gas equipment is stopped and a shutdown test is performed to measure the secondary pressure while gas supply to the secondary side is stopped. It is a period including
The stop determination extraction unit executes the first determination extraction process for determining and extracting the equipment that is permitted to be stopped in advance, also taking into account the determination result of the stop test.

According to the above characteristic structure, during the pre-shutdown period, it is possible to stop the equipment that allows pre-shutdown as gas equipment and perform a shutdown test to measure the secondary pressure while the gas supply to the secondary side is stopped. , it is possible to determine and extract equipment that is permitted to be shut down in advance, taking into consideration the actual gas consumption amount in the immediately preceding actual gas consumption section on the secondary side, and to perform the determination and extraction in a state that is more in line with the actual usage state.

Further features of the flood response system are:
When a levee break occurs in the river in the gas supply region, a storage unit stores a flood occurrence derivation region derived in advance for each levee break point where the levee break occurs,
The flooding occurrence prediction unit is configured to predict the possibility that, when the levee break occurs in the river in the gas supply region, the flooding occurrence derivation region corresponding to the levee break point where the levee break occurs will be flooded. As the second flood prediction area with high
The stop determination extraction unit executes a second determination extraction process that determines and extracts the gas equipment existing in the second flood prediction area as emergency stop equipment.

According to the characteristic configuration described above, when a levee break occurs in a river in a gas supply region, the stop determination extraction unit is capable of determining the possibility that flooding will occur in the flooding occurrence derivation region corresponding to the levee break point where the levee break occurs. Since the stop judgment extraction unit determines and extracts the gas equipment existing in the second predicted flood occurrence area as the emergency stop equipment, the second flood occurrence prediction area that actually occurs due to a river levee break is detected. This system can also extract and shut down gas equipment that exists in the predicted area, effectively prevents the secondary pressure from increasing in the gas piping on the secondary side, and can immediately respond to actual water damage situations. can be realized.

Further features of the flood response system are:
The gas equipment is further provided with a notification processing unit that notifies a communication device related to the work of shutting down the gas equipment, for each predetermined notification period, of the gas equipment determined and extracted by the shutdown determination extraction unit. be.

According to the characteristic configuration described above, the notification processing unit notifies the communication equipment related to the work of shutting down the gas equipment at each predetermined notification period of the gas equipment determined and extracted by the shutdown determination extraction unit. For example, gas safety personnel holding communication equipment can be notified of the judgment at the same time as the judgment is extracted, allowing them to quickly shut down gas equipment at the time of critical flood response. It can be carried out.

Further features of the flood response system are:
The gas equipment is a pressure regulating device that controls the supply gas pressure to the secondary side of the gas pipe and has an auxiliary ball.

If the gas equipment is a pressure regulating device that controls the gas pressure supplied to the secondary side of the gas piping and has an auxiliary ball, when flooded, water pressure is applied to the auxiliary ball and the gas is There is a high possibility that the secondary pressure in the piping will rise.
According to the characteristic configuration described above, even with such a configuration, the pressure regulating device as gas equipment is suitably stopped before being submerged in water, and the gas pressure is effectively prevented from rising on the secondary side. can.

1 is a schematic configuration diagram of a flood disaster response system according to an embodiment. It is an area map showing a first predicted flood occurrence location, equipment that allows advance shutdown of the gas equipment there, a second predicted flood occurrence location, and emergency shutdown equipment there. This is an example of the content of a notification that is notified by the notification processing unit to a communication device related to the work of shutting down gas equipment. FIG. 1 is a schematic configuration diagram of a pressure regulating device as an example of gas equipment. This is the control flow for responding to flood damage.

The flood disaster response system 100 according to the embodiment of the present invention maintains gas supply to gas consumers as much as possible in the flood disaster area and its vicinity, thereby preventing a decrease in convenience even when there is a risk of a flood occurring. The present invention relates to something that can effectively prevent accidents associated with an increase in the pressure of gas supplied to gas consumers while suppressing the pressure.
Hereinafter, an embodiment of the flood disaster response system 100 will be described based on FIGS. 1 to 5.

The control system S as the water damage response system 100 is realized in a form in which hardware and software cooperate, and predicts the occurrence of water damage including flooding and responds to the water damage based on the prediction. . As shown in FIG. 1, the flood disaster response system 100 includes a gas pipe through which gas (for example, city gas 13A) flows, and a pressure regulator G (shown in FIG. 2, The planned rainfall amount determined for each river K (shown in Figure 2) in the gas supply area where gas equipment (an example of gas equipment) is located, and the area where flooding will occur in the event of river flooding or inland water flooding for each river K are shown. A memory that stores the hazard map to be displayed, the secondary pressure that is the pressure on the secondary side of the pressure regulating device G existing in the gas supply area, and the predicted gas consumption amount in the gas consumption section provided in the gas consumer on the secondary side. In the gas supply area where the section S5, the gas piping PB, and the pressure regulating device G that controls the supply gas pressure in the gas piping PB are present, the planned rainfall amount determined for each river K and the rainfall amount predicted by the rainfall prediction section are determined for each river K. Based on the predicted rainfall amount, predict the first predicted flood occurrence area R1 (shown in FIG. 2) where the probability of flooding occurring in the gas supply area is high and the predicted time point at which flooding will occur in the first predicted flood area R1. The flooding occurrence prediction unit S2 performs a pre-shutdown and stops gas supply to the secondary side from a point before a pre-determined pre-shutdown period before the predicted flooding occurrence time, for the pre-shutdown period and the recovery period required for restoration. and a stop determination extraction unit S3 that determines and extracts a pressure regulating device G existing in the first predicted flood occurrence region R1 as a pre-stop permissible equipment Ga (shown in FIG. 2).

The control system S is equipped with a notification processing unit S4 capable of receiving weather data I1 regarding temperature, humidity, etc. in the weather forecast area including the gas supply area from the weather system KS via the telecommunications line N, and receives the received weather data I1. is stored in the storage section S5. In addition, the notification processing unit S4 stops the pressure regulating device G as the gas equipment determined and extracted by the stop determination extraction unit S3 every predetermined notification period (for example, one hour). In other words, the communication device T (T1, T2, T3, etc.) related to the work to be performed, in other words, the communication device T such as a smartphone terminal or a tablet terminal held by the worker who executes the work to stop the pressure regulating device G, is notified. Execute processing.

The rainfall forecasting unit S1 uses a predetermined meteorological model to predict rainfall for a predetermined period (for example, 24 A rainfall prediction process is executed to derive the predicted rainfall amount for each hour.
In other words, the rainfall forecasting unit S1 uses meso-ensemble forecasting (MEPS) as analytical rainfall forecasting from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble forecasting from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to predict maximum rainfall, average rainfall, and minimum rainfall in the gas supply area. Either the amount of rainfall or the amount of rainfall is predicted as the predicted rainfall amount.
The flooding occurrence prediction unit S2 determines that the predicted rainfall amount in the latest 24 hours predicted by the rainfall prediction unit S1 exceeds the planned rainfall amount in 24 hours determined for each river K stored in the storage unit S5. In this case, the inundation occurrence area recorded in the hazard map corresponding to the river K where the expected rainfall amount exceeds the planned rainfall amount is predicted as the first inundation occurrence prediction area R1, and the point in time when the predicted rainfall amount exceeds the planned rainfall amount is predicted. Execute a process for predicting the occurrence of flooding, which is predicted as the predicted time of flooding.

The pressure regulating device G existing in the first flood occurrence prediction region R1 described above increases the gas pressure on the secondary side of the pressure regulating device G to a set pressure or higher in the event of flooding, and is installed at the secondary side consumer. When a gas consuming part such as this is used, there is a possibility that gas may blow out from the gas consuming part.
Specifically, as shown in FIG. 4, the pressure regulating device G is configured as a Reynold type gas governor, and the pressure regulating device G supplies gas from the primary side gas pipe PB to the main equipment. It is supplied as a constant secondary pressure from the secondary side gas pipe PB via the main governor 8. The pressure regulating device G is a gas governor that reduces pressure from so-called medium-low pressure to low pressure, and is used as a district pressure regulator. The main governor 8 has two valve bodies 10 which are connected to a main diaphragm 12 via a diaphragm spindle 11 . Secondary pressure is introduced into the chamber 13 below this main diaphragm 12.
Further, the pressure regulating device G includes an intermediate pressure auxiliary governor 15 connected to the gas piping PB on the primary side of the main governor 8 via a primary pressure adjustment pipe 14, and a medium pressure auxiliary governor 15 connected to the intermediate pressure auxiliary governor 15 via an adjustment pipe 16. A low-pressure auxiliary governor 17 is connected to the medium-pressure auxiliary governor 15, and an auxiliary drive ball 19 is connected to the medium-pressure auxiliary governor 15 via a conduit 18. The low pressure auxiliary governor 17 is connected to the secondary side of the gas pipe PB via a secondary pressure regulating pipe 20. A needle valve 21 is interposed closer to the intermediate pressure auxiliary governor 15 than the connecting portion of the regulating pipe 16 to the conduit 18 . A lever 22 and a hanging rod 23 are provided to connect the main governor 8 and the auxiliary ball disk 19, and a weight 24 for opening the main governor 8 is placed on the lever 22 and the hanging rod 23. ing.

The pressure control of the pressure regulating device G is such that when there is no demand on the secondary side, the secondary pressure is high. Since this pressure is set, this pressure is transmitted to the chamber 27 below the diaphragm 26 of the auxiliary sphere 19 via the adjustment pipe 16, thereby pushing up the hanging rod 23 and the lever 22, and pushing up the main governor 8. The two valve bodies 10 are raised to close the opening 10a.

When demand occurs on the secondary side and the secondary pressure decreases, the low-pressure auxiliary governor 17 operates, and the gas in the chamber 27 of the auxiliary sphere 19 begins to flow to the secondary side. At this time, the intermediate pressure auxiliary governor 15 also starts working, but the flow rate is restricted by the throttle by the needle valve 21 between it and the auxiliary sphere 19, so the intermediate pressure in the regulating pipe 16 decreases, and the auxiliary sphere 19 The diaphragm 26 is lowered, the hanging rod 23 and the lever 22 are lowered, and the main governor 8 is opened.

When the demand decreases and the secondary pressure increases, the low pressure auxiliary governor 17 closes, the intermediate pressure increases, and the main governor 8 closes. The setting of the secondary pressure is adjusted by the number of small weights 17a placed on the low pressure auxiliary governor 17.

When the pressure regulating device G having the above configuration is submerged in water, water flows into the upper chamber of the diaphragm 26 of the auxiliary sphere 19 through the atmosphere opening hole 19a, and the diaphragm 26 is lowered by the water pressure and the hanging rod 23 is lowered by the water pressure. There is a possibility that the lever 22 will be lowered, the main governor 8 will be opened, and the pressure on the secondary side will rise beyond the set pressure.

In this way, if the pressure regulating device G is flooded and the pressure on the secondary side rises above the set pressure, there is a possibility that secondary disasters such as fire may occur at the consumers on the secondary side. It is preferable to stop the pressure regulating device G before doing so. On the other hand, if all the pressure regulators G are stopped before the predicted time when flooding occurs, the gas pressure on the secondary side of the pressure regulator G decreases during the stop period. Ultimately, there is a possibility that the gas supply to the gas consuming parts of all the secondary side customers will be stopped.

Therefore, in the flood disaster response system 100 according to the embodiment, gas is supplied to the secondary side while effectively suppressing the risk that the pressure on the secondary side of the pressure regulating device G existing in the flooded area increases above a predetermined pressure. In order to prevent this from being stopped, it has the following configuration.
That is, as shown in FIG. 2, the stop determination extraction unit S3 extracts the secondary pressure, which is the pressure on the secondary side of the pressure regulator G existing in the gas supply area, and the gas consumption unit provided at the consumer on the secondary side. Based on the predicted gas consumption amount in A first determination extraction process for determining and extracting Ga is executed.
In other words, the stop determination extraction unit S3 determines that the predicted gas consumption amount on the secondary side stored for each pressure regulating device G in the storage unit S5 is in the pre-stop period before the predicted time of flooding occurrence and after the predicted time of flooding occurrence. The pressure regulating device G that can supply gas to the gas consuming part on the secondary side using the gas existing in the gas piping PB on the secondary side during the restoration period is extracted as equipment Ga that allows advance shutdown. By doing so, the risk of the pressure on the secondary side of the pressure regulator G existing in the flooded area rising above a predetermined pressure is effectively suppressed, and the gas supply to the secondary side is prevented from being stopped. .

Now, in the above-mentioned configuration, as shown in FIG. 2, there is a pressure regulating device Gb that is not extracted by the stop determination extraction section S3. Since the pressure regulating device Gb is in operation even after the predicted flood occurrence time, if the embankment of river K actually breaks and floods after the predicted flood occurrence time, the secondary This will increase the pressure in the side gas pipe PB. Therefore, the flood disaster response system 100 according to this embodiment employs the following configuration.
That is, when a levee break occurs in the river K in the gas supply area, the storage unit S5 stores the flood occurrence information derived in advance for each levee break point P1 (shown in FIG. 2) where the levee break occurs. The inundation occurrence prediction unit S2 stores the derivation area, and when a levee break occurs in the river K in the gas supply area, the inundation occurrence prediction unit S2 predicts the inundation occurrence derivation area corresponding to the levee break point P1 where the levee break occurs. The stop determination extraction unit S3 determines and extracts the pressure regulating device G existing in the second predicted flood occurrence region R2 as the emergency stop equipment Gc. A second determination extraction process is executed.
Although only P1 is shown as the levee break point in FIG. 2, the storage unit S5 stores a plurality of possible levee break points and a flood occurrence derivation area for each levee break point.

Next, a control flow using the flood disaster response system 100 according to the embodiment will be described based on FIG. 5.
As shown in FIG. 5, in the control system S, the rainfall prediction unit S1 executes rainfall prediction processing (#01), the flooding occurrence prediction unit S2 executes flooding occurrence prediction processing (#02), and the rainfall prediction unit S1 executes rainfall prediction processing (#02). If the first predicted flood area and predicted time point of flood occurrence are not predicted in the prediction process (No in #03), the processes in #01 and #02 are repeatedly executed at predetermined intervals.

On the other hand, if the first predicted flood occurrence area and predicted time point of flood occurrence are predicted in the flood occurrence prediction process (Yes in #03), the notification processing unit S4 responds to the stoppage of the pressure regulating device G in the subsequent flow. A notification process is executed to notify the communication device T held by the worker that the first predicted flood area and predicted time of flood occurrence have been predicted (#04). This allows the worker to prepare in advance so as to be able to respond quickly when the equipment Ga that allows advance shutdown of the pressure regulating device G is extracted in the subsequent first determination extraction process.

Before executing the first determination extraction process, the stop determination extraction unit S3 updates the installation status of the gas piping PB in the gas supply area at the time when determination extraction is started (#05). Although the gas pipe PB is subjected to extension work, replacement work, etc. from time to time, this process allows the subsequent first determination extraction process based on the predicted gas consumption amount to be executed with higher accuracy.

The stop determination extraction unit S3 is based on the secondary pressure that is the pressure on the secondary side of the pressure regulating device G existing in the gas supply area and the predicted gas consumption amount in the gas consumption unit provided in the secondary side consumer. First judgment extraction for determining and extracting the pressure regulating device G, which is a gas equipment predicted to be able to supply gas to the gas consumption unit on the secondary side during the pre-shutdown period and the recovery period, as the pre-shutdown permissible equipment Ga. Execute the process (#06).
Here, the pre-stop period is the time required to stop the pre-shutdown permitting equipment Ga as the pressure regulating device G and execute a stop test to measure the secondary pressure while gas supply to the secondary side is stopped. The stop test is executed during the pre-stop period (#07).
The stop judgment extraction unit S3 executes a first judgment extraction process for judging and extracting equipment Ga that is permitted to be stopped in advance, also taking into account the judgment result of the stop test (#08).
To add an explanation, the stop determination extraction unit S3 measures the degree of decrease in secondary pressure at the actual site, and determines whether the gas consumption at the gas consumption unit on the secondary side is It is determined whether the gas in the gas pipe PB on the secondary side can cover the supply, and if it cannot, the pressure regulating device G, which has been extracted as a pre-stop permissible equipment Ga in the first judgment extraction process, is pre-stopped. Exclude from allowable equipment Ga.

As shown in FIG. 3, the notification processing unit S4 updates the pre-stop permissible equipment Ga (target equipment in FIG. 2) determined and extracted in the first determination extraction process every predetermined notification period (for example, one hour). Next, a notification process is executed to the communication equipment T related to the work of stopping the pressure regulating device G (#09).
Incidentally, in the example shown in FIG. 3, a pressure regulating device G corresponding to a river K whose predicted rainfall amount is less than or equal to the planned rainfall amount is also shown.

Furthermore, if the amount of rainfall increases and a levee break occurs in the river K in the gas supply area, the flooding occurrence prediction unit S2 predicts whether flooding will occur in the flooding occurrence derivation area corresponding to the levee break point P1 where the levee break has occurred. The stop determination extraction unit S3 performs a second determination extraction process to determine and extract the pressure regulating device G existing in the second predicted flood occurrence region R2 as the emergency stop facility Gc. Execute (#10).

Then, the notification processing unit S4 updates the emergency stop equipment Gc determined and extracted in the second determination extraction process to the emergency stop equipment Gc related to the work of stopping the pressure regulating device G every predetermined notification period (for example, 1 hour). A notification process is executed for the communication device T (#11).

After the flooding of the pressure regulating device G is resolved, a restoration process is executed to restart the stopped advance stop permitting equipment Ga and the emergency stop equipment Gc (#12).

[Another embodiment]
(1) In the above embodiment, the rainfall prediction unit S1 uses one meteorological model to predict the predicted rainfall amount. However, as another configuration example, the rainfall prediction unit S1 uses a plurality of weather models to predict the predicted rainfall amount. It is also possible to adopt a configuration that derives .
Specifically, the rainfall prediction section S1 predicts the expected rainfall amount from a plurality of weather models, and the flooding occurrence prediction section S2 predicts the amount of rainfall exceeding the planned rainfall amount among the predicted rainfall amounts of each of the plurality of weather models. The value obtained by dividing the number of weather models by the number of all weather models is calculated as the probability of flooding occurring in the gas supply area. It is also possible to employ a configuration that is predicted as the first predicted flood occurrence region R1.
According to this configuration, the rainfall prediction unit S1 calculates the probability that flooding will occur in the first predicted flooding area R1 by calculating the number of predicted rainfall amounts exceeding the planned rainfall amount of each of the plurality of weather models. Because it is derived as a value divided by the number of models, it is possible to make decisions based on probabilistic values compared to predicting whether or not flooding will occur in the first flooding prediction area R1 from one weather model. , the accuracy of predicting the probability of flooding can be improved.

(2) In the above embodiment, the control system S is shown as having a configuration realized by one hardware configuration, but as another configuration example, the rainfall prediction unit S1, which requires relatively high computing power, may be implemented using a different meteorological system. It is also possible to employ a configuration in which the notification processing unit S4 is composed of a prediction server and receives the calculation results calculated by the weather server via the telecommunication line N.

(3) In the above embodiment, the inundation occurrence prediction unit S2 determines the predicted rainfall in the most recent 24 hours predicted by the rainfall prediction unit S1 for each river K stored in the storage unit S5. If the planned rainfall amount exceeds the planned rainfall amount in time, the inundation occurrence area recorded in the hazard map corresponding to the river K whose expected rainfall amount exceeds the planned rainfall amount is predicted as the first inundation prediction area R1, and the predicted rainfall amount The point in time when the amount of rainfall exceeds the planned rainfall amount is assumed to be the point in time when flooding is predicted to occur.
As another configuration, the inundation occurrence prediction unit S2 is configured such that the predicted rainfall in the latest 24 hours predicted by the rainfall prediction unit S1 is determined by the predicted rainfall in the 24 hours determined for each river K stored in the storage unit S5. If a predetermined percentage (for example, 80%) of the planned rainfall amount is exceeded, the flooding occurrence area recorded in the hazard map corresponding to the river K whose expected rainfall amount exceeds the planned rainfall amount is predicted as the first flooding occurrence prediction area R1. In addition, the time when the predicted rainfall amount exceeds the planned rainfall amount may be predicted as the flooding occurrence prediction time point.
Further, the predicted rainfall amount is not limited to the latest 24 hours, but may be the predicted rainfall amount for a period such as 48 hours.

(4) In the above embodiment, an example was shown in which the stop judgment extraction unit S3 executes the first judgment extraction process and the second judgment extraction process, but the second judgment extraction process does not need to be executed. . In addition, in the first determination extraction process, preliminary shutdown permissible equipment Ga may be determined and extracted without considering the result of the shutdown test.

(5) In the above embodiment, an example was shown in which the process of updating the installation status of the gas piping PB was executed, but the process does not need to be executed.

It should be noted that the configuration disclosed in the above embodiment (including other embodiments, the same applies hereinafter) can be applied in combination with the configuration disclosed in other embodiments, as long as there is no contradiction, and The embodiments disclosed in this specification are illustrative, and the embodiments of the present invention are not limited thereto, and can be modified as appropriate without departing from the purpose of the present invention.

The flood disaster response system of the present invention maintains the gas supply to gas consumers as much as possible in the flood disaster area and its vicinity even when there is a risk of a flood occurring, while suppressing a decline in convenience. It can be effectively used as a flood disaster response system that can effectively prevent accidents caused by increases in the pressure of gas supplied to gas consumers.

19: Assistance sphere 100: Flood damage response system G: Gas equipment Ga: Pre-stop permission equipment Gb: Pressure regulator Gc: Emergency stop equipment K: River N: Telecommunication line P1: Levee break point PB: Gas piping R1: First flood prediction area R2: Second flood prediction area S: Control system S1: Rainfall prediction section S2: Flood prediction section S3: Stop judgment extraction section S4: Notification processing section S5: Storage section T: Communication equipment

Claims (6)

A flood disaster response system that predicts the occurrence of flood damage including flooding and responds to the flood damage based on the prediction,
In a gas supply area where gas piping and gas equipment that controls the supply gas pressure in the gas piping are present, the gas supply is determined based on the planned rainfall amount determined for each river and the expected rainfall amount predicted by the rainfall prediction unit. a first flood occurrence prediction region in which the probability of flooding occurring is high; and a flood occurrence prediction unit that predicts a predicted time point at which flooding will occur in the first flood occurrence prediction region;
The gas equipment is pre-shutdowned and the gas supply to the secondary side is stopped from a point before a pre-determined pre-shutdown period before the predicted time of flooding, for the pre-shutdown period and the restoration period required for restoration. , a shutdown determination extraction unit that determines and extracts a preliminary shutdown permissible facility from the gas equipment existing in the first flood prediction area,
The stop determination extraction unit determines the preliminary stop based on the secondary pressure that is the pressure on the secondary side of the gas equipment existing in the gas supply area and the predicted gas consumption amount in the gas consumption unit on the secondary side. Executing a first determination extraction process for determining and extracting the gas equipment that is predicted to be capable of supplying gas to the gas consumption unit on the secondary side over the period and the recovery period as the equipment that is permitted to be shut down in advance. Water damage response system. The water damage response system according to claim 1, wherein the stoppage determination extraction unit executes the determination extraction after updating the installation status of the gas piping in the gas supply area at the time when the determination extraction is started. The pre-shutdown period is a time period during which the pre-shutdown permitted equipment as the gas equipment is stopped and a shutdown test is performed to measure the secondary pressure while gas supply to the secondary side is stopped. It is a period including
The flood disaster response system according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the stoppage determination extraction unit executes the first judgment extraction process of determining and extracting the equipment that is permitted to be stopped in advance, also taking into account the determination result of the stoppage test. When a levee break occurs in the river in the gas supply region, a storage unit stores a flood occurrence derivation region derived in advance for each levee break point where the levee break occurs,
The flooding occurrence prediction unit is configured to predict the possibility that, when the levee break occurs in the river in the gas supply region, the flooding occurrence derivation region corresponding to the levee break point where the levee break occurs will be flooded. As the second flood prediction area with high
The flood disaster according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein the stoppage judgment extraction unit executes a second judgment extraction process to judge and extract the gas equipment existing in the second flood prediction area as emergency stoppage equipment. Compatible system. Claim comprising: a notification processing unit that processes the gas equipment determined and extracted by the shutdown determination extraction unit to notify a communication device related to the work of shutting down the gas equipment at each predetermined notification period. Flood damage response system according to any one of items 1 to 4. The water damage response system according to any one of claims 1 to 5, wherein the gas equipment is a pressure regulating device that controls the supply gas pressure to the secondary side of the gas pipe and has an auxiliary ball. .

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