JP7260148B2 - Timing determination device, determination method, program, and recording medium - Google Patents

Description

The present invention relates to a determination device, a determination method, a program, and a recording medium for determining the timing of taking an action to encourage people to bring their own garbage.

Conventionally, garbage is disposed of in a designated garbage storage area before the designated collection day, and a collection company collects it by a garbage truck (hereinafter referred to as "collection type"). It has become. On the other hand, in recent years, from the viewpoint of effective use of resources, a new "bring-your-own" type has been advocated instead of the collected type. The bring-your-own type is a form in which each individual brings garbage to a place where staff are present (hereinafter referred to as a "garbage station"). By adopting such a bring-your-own type, it is possible to discard garbage at any time. In addition, the staff at the garbage station will teach the individual who brings the garbage (hereinafter referred to as "the bringer") how to separate the garbage they bring, thereby deepening their understanding of the environment and helping the garbage station. It is thought that it will also be possible to make a place that includes the local people a place for interaction.

However, since the bring-your-own-type is a new form in which you have to voluntarily bring your own garbage instead of entrusting it to a collection company, some people may drop out before it becomes a habit. come.

In order to prevent such dropouts, the operator of the bring-your-own-type garbage station is conceivable to take some kind of action to encourage the bringers who are likely to drop out to bring their own items so that they can continue. However, if the timing of the action for the bringer is too early, for example, if the person is thinking of bringing the item, the action before bringing the item will be like a reminder, which may result in an adverse effect. Moreover, in the case of a bringer who has a small track record of bringing, it is extremely difficult to guess the next bringing date, and accordingly, it is also difficult to determine the timing.

Therefore, the present invention provides a system for determining the appropriate timing for taking action to prompt the bearer to bring the document.

In order to achieve the above object, the device for determining the timing of prompting the bringing of garbage of the present invention comprises:
A storage unit, a coefficient of variation distribution calculation unit, an interval days probability calculation unit, a timing determination unit, and an output unit,
The storage unit
storing bring-date information about bringing garbage for each of a plurality of bringers;
The bringing date information includes an average number of interval days μ _i , a standard deviation σ _i , and a coefficient of variation X for the number of interval days of the bringing date,
The coefficient of variation X is the ratio of the standard deviation σ _i and the average interval days μ _i ,
The coefficient of variation distribution calculation unit is
calculating a probability distribution Z representing the relationship between the coefficient of variation X and the probability Y thereof based on a normal distribution from the coefficient of variation X of the plurality of bearers;
The interval days probability calculation unit,
Based on the probability distribution _Z , each standard deviation σ _it to calculate
From the average interval days μ _it and each standard deviation σ _it , a probability B for each candidate interval days A until the next action date is calculated for each standard deviation σ _it based on a normal distribution,
Weighting the probability B for each of the candidate interval days A with the probability Y corresponding to the standard deviation σ _it to calculate a weighted average probability C for each of the candidate interval days A;
The timing determination unit
Selecting a candidate interval days A _th that indicates a weighted average probability C _th below an arbitrary threshold after the maximum value C _max of the weighted weighted average probability C in the increasing direction of the candidate interval days A;
determining a day when the candidate interval days A _th have elapsed from the date when the bringer t brought the garbage last, as a reference date for timing to take an action for prompting the bringer t to bring the garbage,
The output unit
The timing is output.

The method of determining the timing to prompt the bringing of garbage of the present invention is as follows.
including a variation coefficient distribution calculation step, an interval days probability calculation step, a timing determination step, and an output step;
Using bring date information for trash pick-up by multiple bringers,
The bringing date information includes an average number of interval days μ _i , a standard deviation σ _i , and a coefficient of variation X for the number of interval days of the bringing date,
The coefficient of variation X is the ratio of the standard deviation σ _i and the average interval days μ _i ,
The coefficient of variation distribution calculation step includes:
calculating a probability distribution Z representing the relationship between the coefficient of variation X and the probability Y thereof based on a normal distribution from the coefficient of variation X of the plurality of bearers;
The interval days probability calculation step includes:
Based on the probability distribution _Z , each standard deviation σ _it to calculate
From the average interval days μ _it and each standard deviation σ _it , a probability B for each candidate interval days A until the next action date is calculated for each standard deviation σ _it based on a normal distribution,
Weighting the probability B for each of the candidate interval days A with the probability Y corresponding to the standard deviation σ _it to calculate a weighted average probability C for each of the candidate interval days A;
The timing determination step includes:
Selecting a candidate interval days A _th that indicates a weighted average probability C _th below an arbitrary threshold after the maximum value C _max of the weighted weighted average probability C in the increasing direction of the candidate interval days A;
determining a day when the candidate interval days A _th have passed since the last day the bringer t brought the garbage as a reference date for timing to take an action to prompt the bringer t to bring the garbage,
The output step includes
The timing is output.

A program of the present invention causes a computer to execute the timing determination method of the present invention.

A recording medium of the present invention is a computer-readable recording medium recording the program of the present invention.

According to the present invention, for example, even if the bringer has a small track record of bringing garbage, it is possible to estimate the next bringing date and determine an appropriate timing for taking action to encourage the bringing of garbage. For this reason, it is possible to effectively establish a new form of garbage disposal called the bring-your-own type instead of the collection type.

FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing an example of a timing determination device according to Embodiment 1. FIG. FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing an example of the hardware configuration of the timing determination device according to the first embodiment; FIG. 3 is a graph showing an example of the probability density with respect to the interval days, assuming that the interval days follow a normal distribution in the first embodiment. FIG. 4 is a graph showing an example of the probability density with respect to the interval days, assuming that the interval days follow a normal distribution in the first embodiment. FIG. 5A is an example of a histogram showing the relationship between the coefficient of variation and the number of people in Embodiment 1, and FIG. 5B is a graph showing the relationship between the coefficient of variation and the probability density. (C) is a table showing the relationship between coefficients of variation and probabilities. FIG. 6A is a table showing the relationship between the coefficient of variation, probability, and standard deviation in Embodiment 1, and FIG. 6B is a graph showing the relationship between interval days and probability density. FIG. 7A is a table showing the probability B for each interval days, and FIG. 7B is a table showing the weighted average probability C for each interval days in the first embodiment. FIG. 8 is a block diagram showing an example of a timing determination device according to the second embodiment. FIG. 9 is an example of a flowchart showing the procedure of the second interval days probability calculation step in the second embodiment. FIG. 10 is an example of a flowchart showing the procedure of the timing determination method in the second embodiment.

An embodiment of the present invention will be described. In addition, this invention is not limited to the following embodiment. In addition, in the following figures, the same reference numerals are given to the same parts. Also, the descriptions of the respective embodiments can be referred to each other's description unless otherwise specified. Furthermore, the configuration of each embodiment can be combined unless otherwise specified.

[Embodiment 1]
FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing the configuration of an example of the timing determination device 10 of this embodiment. As shown in FIG. 1 , the timing determination device 10 has a storage unit 11 , a variation coefficient distribution calculation unit 12 , an interval days probability calculation unit 13 , a timing determination unit 14 and an output unit 15 . The timing determination device 10 is also called a timing determination system, for example. The timing determination device 10 may be, for example, a single device that includes the above units, or a device that allows the above units to be connected via a communication network.

The communication network is not particularly limited, and a known communication network can be used, and may be wired or wireless. Examples of the communication network include Internet lines, telephone lines, LANs (Local Area Networks), WiFis (Wireless Fidelity), and the like. The processing of each part of the timing determination device 10 may be performed on the cloud.

Next, FIG. 2 illustrates a block diagram of the hardware configuration of the timing determination device 10. As shown in FIG. The timing determination device 10 has, for example, a CPU (Central Processing Unit) 101, a memory 102, a bus 103, an input device 104, a display 105, a communication device 106, a storage device 107, and the like. Each part of the timing determination device 10 is interconnected via a bus 103 by each interface (I/F).

The CPU 101 is a processor responsible for overall control of the timing determination device 10, and is not limited to a CPU, and may be another processor. In the timing determination device 10, the CPU 101 executes, for example, the program of the present invention and other programs, and reads and writes various information.

The timing determination device 10 can be connected to a communication network through, for example, a communication device 106 connected to the bus 103, and can also be connected to an external device via the communication network. The external device is not particularly limited, and is, for example, a database, a PC (personal computer), a terminal, or the like, and the terminal is, for example, a tablet, a smart phone, a mobile phone, or the like. The connection method between the timing determination device 10 and the external device is not particularly limited, and may be wired connection or wireless connection, for example. The wired connection may be, for example, a cord connection or a cable connection for using a communication network. The wireless connection may be, for example, a connection using a communication network or a connection using wireless communication. The communication network is not particularly limited, and for example, a known communication network can be used, which is the same as described above.

The memory 102 includes, for example, a main memory, which is also referred to as main memory. When the CPU 101 performs processing, the memory 102 reads various operating programs 108 such as the program of the present invention stored in an auxiliary storage device described later, and the CPU 101 receives data from the memory 102. , executes the program 108 . The main memory is, for example, RAM (random access memory). Memory 102, for example, further includes a ROM (Read Only Memory).

The storage device 107 is also called a so-called auxiliary storage device, for example, in contrast to the main memory (main storage device). The storage device 107 includes, for example, a storage medium and a drive that reads from and writes to the storage medium. The storage medium is not particularly limited, and may be, for example, a built-in type or an external type. A DVD, a flash memory, a memory card, etc. can be cited, and the drive is not particularly limited. The storage device 107 can also be exemplified by a hard disk drive (HDD) in which a storage medium and a drive are integrated, for example. For example, the storage device 107 stores the program 108 as described above, and the memory 102 reads the operation program 108 from the storage device 107 when the CPU 101 is executed as described above. The storage device 107 is, for example, the storage unit 11, and stores information such as the date of bringing of a plurality of bringers, which will be described later.

The timing determination device 10 may further comprise an input device 104 and a display 105, for example. The input device 104 is, for example, a scanner, touch panel, keyboard, or the like. Examples of the display 105 include an LED display and a liquid crystal display.

The storage unit 11 stores bring-date information regarding the bringing of garbage for each of a plurality of bringers (n, n is an arbitrary positive integer). The bringing date information is information relating to the bringing date history of bringing garbage to the garbage station by each bringer, and is stored for each bringer in association with the bringer's identification information. The identification information of the bringer is, for example, information that can uniquely identify an individual, and specific examples include name, abbreviation, serial number, user ID, identification image (face image, portrait image, etc.), address, telephone number. etc. The bring date information includes average number of interval days μ _i , standard deviation σ _i , and coefficient of variation X regarding the number of interval days between bring dates. The bringing date information further includes, for example, information such as the date of bringing and the day of the week as a history of bringing dates. For example, the timing determination device 10 may further include an interval information calculation unit, and from the date of the arrival date stored in the storage unit 11, the number of days between the arrival dates, the average number of interval days μ _i , and the standard deviation σ _i and the coefficient of variation X may be calculated and the calculation results may be stored in the storage unit 11 .

The number of interval days means the number of days until the next delivery date based on a certain delivery date. is 6 days. The average interval days μ _i and standard deviation σ _i can be calculated for each bearer, for example by averaging all interval days for a bearer, the average interval days μ _i and its standard deviation σ _i are obtained. .

The coefficient of variation X is the ratio of the standard deviation _σi and the average number of interval days _μi , for example, the standard deviation _σi divided by the average interval number of days _μi to be expressed as _σi / _μi. can be done. As described above, the present invention uses the bringing date information of a plurality of bringers to estimate the interval days until the next bringing date for a bringer with a small bringing date history. However, it is thought that the ratio of the number of days the delivery is delayed differs depending on the relative length of the interval days. In other words, assuming that the number of days the delivery is delayed is 1 day, the probability of being delayed by 1 day if the average number of days of delivery is 1 month, and the probability of being delayed by 1 day if the average number of days of delivery is 5 days. is considered different. Therefore, the variation coefficient X, which is the ratio between the standard deviation σ _i and the average number of interval days μ _i in consideration of the influence of the average number of days, is used as the bringing date information in the present invention.

The number of bringers (n) of information stored in the storage unit 11 is not particularly limited, but is preferably relatively large. For example, information of 100 or more persons is preferable.

A variation coefficient distribution calculation unit 12 calculates a probability distribution Z representing the relationship between the variation coefficient X and its probability Y from the variation coefficient X of the plurality of bearers based on a normal distribution.

Based on the probability distribution Z, the interval days probability calculation _unit 13 calculates the above-mentioned bringing Calculate each standard deviation σ _it of the person t, and from the average interval days μ _it and each standard deviation σ _it , based on the normal distribution, for each standard deviation σ _it , the candidate interval days A until the next action date A weighted average probability C for each of the candidate interval days A is calculated by weighting the probability B for each of the candidate interval days A by the probability Y corresponding to the standard deviation σ _it .

The timing determining unit 14 sets the candidate interval days A th indicating the weighted average probability C _th below an arbitrary threshold after the maximum value C _max of the weighted average probability C in the increasing direction of the candidate interval days _A. The date on which the candidate interval days A _th have passed since the date when the bringer t last brought the trash is selected as the reference date for the timing of taking action to prompt the bringer t to bring the trash. decide. Based on the reference date of the timing, for example, the date on which an action such as a reminder is actually taken, or the period during which the action is taken can be arbitrarily set. The period during which the action is taken is, for example, a period during which the action is preferably taken on any date. The date on which an action such as prompting is actually taken for the bringer t may be, for example, the reference date or any day in a period including the reference date (period for taking the action). The period may include, for example, dates before the reference date, dates after the reference date, or both. The end of the period can be set, for example, according to the average number of days between the bearers. For the bearer whose average interval days is relatively short, the number of days relatively short from the reference date may be set as the end. The arbitrary threshold value may be set in advance and stored in the storage unit 11, for example.

The output unit 15 outputs the timing. For example, the output unit 15 may output the timing to an external device as described above via the communication device 106, or may output the timing to the display 105 of the timing device 10 for display. Further, the candidate interval days A _th determined by the timing determination unit 14 and the days when the candidate interval days A _th elapse may be further stored in the storage unit 11 as information of the bearer t, for example. .

Next, the timing determination method of this embodiment will be described. The timing determination method of this embodiment can be implemented using, for example, the timing determination device 10 shown in FIGS. Note that the timing determination method of this embodiment is not limited to the use of the timing determination device 10 .

The user of the present invention is, for example, an operator, manager, staff, etc. of the garbage station, since the bringer who uses the garbage station is urged to bring the garbage.

If the bringer's bring date information is accumulated as a sufficient amount of historical information, the average number of days between the bring dates and its standard deviation are considered accurate. As a specific example, an average number of interval days μ _i =6.17 Days and a standard deviation σ _i =0.98 are calculated from the history information of a certain bringer. We assume that the number of days between individuals follows a normal distribution. When the number of interval days follows a normal distribution, a normal distribution curve obtained by graphing the probability density function is obtained as shown in FIG. The formula in FIG. 3 is a probability density function. where μ is the mean interval days μ _i and σ is its standard deviation σ _i . In the graph of FIG. 3, the area of the shaded area is the probability of bringing on the 6th day from the actual last bringing date. The definite integral for calculating the area is represented by Equation 1, which will be described later, and A in Equation 1 is 6 in the case of FIG. In the case of the bearer for whom a sufficient amount of history information is obtained in this way, for example, the number of interval days exceeds the peak of the normal distribution curve (average number of interval days μ _i =6.17) and the probability density becomes almost zero. (The number of days marked with * in FIG. 3) can be considered as the timing at which the operator of the garbage station takes action to encourage the bringer to bring the garbage, assuming that bringing the garbage is interrupted.

However, if the bring date information of the bringer does not have a sufficient amount of historical information, the calculated standard deviation cannot be said to be accurate. It is difficult to estimate the interval days until the bring date. As a specific example, the normal distribution curve graphing the probability density function when it is assumed that the average interval days μ _i obtained from the history information of the bearer is the same (6.17 Days) but has a different standard deviation , as illustrated in FIG. Then, as shown in FIG. 4, due to the variation of the standard deviation (σ=0.5, 1.0, 1.5), the normal distribution curve crosses the peak and the interval days (* number of days in the mark) yields varying results.

In addition, it is considered that garbage is always generated in daily life and accumulates at a constant pace. On the other hand, regarding the behavior of bringing garbage, it differs greatly from the collection type, and the interval is earlier or later. In addition, it is considered that the interval (also referred to as period) of bringing and the variation in the intervals differ from person to person due to the influence of individual life patterns. Such a feature is based on factors that are completely different from, for example, the cycle of going to a sports club, and is the first discovery made by the present inventors in terms of discarding garbage brought in by hand.

For this reason, in the present invention, even if the amount of bringing date information for the bringer t whose next action date is to be estimated is not sufficient, by using the bringing date information of a plurality of bringers, the period can be calculated. The next action date is estimated with high reliability, and the timing of the action prompting to bring is determined, taking into account the variability thereof.

The present invention will be specifically described below.

First, the variation coefficient distribution calculation step calculates a probability distribution Z representing the relationship between the variation coefficient X and its probability Y from the variation coefficient X of the plurality of bearers based on a normal distribution. The variation coefficient distribution calculation step can be executed by the variation coefficient distribution calculator 12 of the timing determination device 10, for example.

The probability distribution Z can be calculated, for example, as follows. As described above, the storage unit 11 of the timing determination device 10 stores the bring-in date information for each of a plurality of bringers, which is used. The bringing date information is as described above. Since each of the plurality of bearers has a coefficient of variation X, a histogram such as that shown in FIG. 5A can be obtained based on the stored date information of all the bearers. In the histogram of FIG. 5A, the horizontal axis indicates the range of the coefficient of variation, and the vertical axis indicates the number of bearers who fall within each range of the coefficient of variation. Assuming that this histogram follows a normal distribution, and calculating the probability density with respect to the coefficient of variation X, the graph of the probability density function of FIG. 5B is obtained. The formula in FIG. 5B is the same probability density function as in FIG. 3, where μ is the average μ _x of the coefficient of variation X and σ is its standard deviation σ _x . Based on the graph of this probability density function, the probability Y of obtaining each coefficient of variation X can be calculated from the probability density. The table in FIG. 5C shows each coefficient of variation X and the probability Y corresponding thereto. In this way, a probability distribution Z representing the relationship between the coefficient of variation X and its probability Y is obtained.

Next, the interval days probability calculation step is performed. The interval days probability calculation step can be executed by the interval days probability calculation unit 13 of the timing determination device 10, for example. In the interval days probability calculation step, first, based on the probability distribution Z, the combination of each variation coefficient X and the probability Y is calculated from the average interval days μ _it of the bearer t whose next action date is to be estimated. Calculate each standard deviation σ _it of the bearer t. In this embodiment, the standard deviation obtained directly from the bring date information of the bearer t is not used, but only the average interval days μ _it is used, assuming that the bring date information of the bearer t is not sufficient. In the following, the average interval days μ _it for the bearer t is exemplified as 6.17 Days.

Since the relationship between the coefficient of variation X and the standard deviation σ _i is X=σ _i /μ _i , the standard deviation σ _i is σ _i =X μ _i (X is the coefficient of variation, μ _i is the average interval days) It can be calculated from the formula Therefore, based on the probability distribution Z illustrated in FIG. 5C, each standard deviation σ _it of the bearer t corresponding to the combination of each coefficient of variation X and probability Y in the probability distribution Z is calculated. The calculated standard deviation σ _it of the bearer is shown in the table of FIG. 6A along with the probability distribution Z. From this table, for example, it can be determined that the probability that bearer t has standard deviation σ _it =0.617 is about 0.034.

In addition, since the probability Y is relatively low, it will not appear, so the standard deviation σ _it may be calculated for all, but for example, the variation coefficient X corresponding to the probability range including the highest probability , may be selectively calculated. An example is shown with reference to FIG. Based on FIG. 5B, the lower limit of the range of the coefficient of variation X can be set to, for example, "0.0". On the other hand, the upper limit of the range of the coefficient of variation is selected as _the upper limit of the range of the coefficient of variation X from the average μ _x of the coefficient of variation X and the standard deviation (variance ₎ σ _x of the coefficient of variation X. . In that case, about 99% of the events will be contained within the range from the lower limit to the upper limit of the coefficient of variation. Therefore, for example, if the conditions of FIG. 5B are μ=μ _x =0.6 and σ=σ _x =0.25, the upper limit of the coefficient of variation X can be determined to be 1.35. Therefore, for example, the coefficient of variation X may be selectively calculated within a range of 0 to 1.35.

In the interval days probability calculation step, next, from the average interval days μ _it and each standard deviation σ _it , based on a normal distribution, for each standard deviation σ _it , for each candidate interval days A until the next action date and weighting the probability B for each candidate interval days A with the probability Y corresponding to the standard deviation σ _it to calculate a weighted average probability C for each candidate interval days A.

Assuming that the average interval days μ _it and the standard deviation σ _it in the table of FIG. 6(A) follow a normal distribution, the probability density for the interval days is calculated for each standard deviation σ _it . A part of this result is illustrated in the graph of the probability density function in FIG. 6(B). Although FIG. 6B shows three examples of standard deviations σ _it of 0.617, 1.234, and 1.851, the present invention is not limited to this, and each standard deviation σ _it , the probability density function is calculated. Then, the probability B is calculated for each candidate interval days A from the graph of the probability density function of each standard deviation σ _it . Since the probability Y of each standard deviation σ _it is also known, the probability B for each of the candidate interval days A is further weighted by the probability Y corresponding to the standard deviation σ _it , and the total sum is obtained. A weighted average probability C for each candidate interval days A can be calculated.

A more specific description will be given with reference to FIG. FIG. 7 shows three types of examples with standard deviations σ _it of 2.468, 3.085, and 3.702, but is not limited to these, and similarly for each standard deviation σ _t , the following , the probability is calculated. That is, by applying the _average interval days μ _it and each standard deviation σ _it to Equation 1 to be described later and integrally calculating, as shown in FIG. A probability is calculated for each This process is performed, for example, by the procedure shown in the flowchart of FIG. 9, which will be described in the second embodiment. Each standard deviation σ _it has a unique probability Y, respectively. For example, as shown in FIG. 7A, if σ _it =2.468, the probability Y is 0.132850 based on the table in FIG. 6A, and if σ _it =3.085 , based on the table of FIG. 6A, the probability Y is 0.153928, and if σ _it =3.702, the probability Y is 0.152934 based on the table of FIG. 6A. Therefore, the weighted average probability C for each candidate interval days A is calculated by further weighting the probability B of each candidate interval days A with the probability Y corresponding to the standard deviation σ _it and taking the sum. . For example, if the candidate interval days A = 6 Days, [0.159×0.132850]+[0.128×0.153928]+[0.107×0.152934] . , the probability B is weighted by the probability Y, and the sum is calculated to calculate the final weighted average probability.

Next, in the increasing direction of the candidate interval days A, the candidate interval days showing a weighted average probability C _th below an arbitrary threshold after the maximum value C _max of the weighted weighted average probability C _Ath is selected, and the day on which the candidate interval days _Ath have passed since the last day when the bringer t brought the garbage is set as the timing of taking action for prompting the bringer t to bring the garbage. Determined as the base date. The timing determination step can be executed by the timing determination unit 14 of the timing determination device 10, for example.

As illustrated in FIG. 7B, for each candidate interval days A, a weighted average probability C indicating the possibility of occurrence thereof is calculated by the interval days probability calculation step. Based on the table of FIG. 7(B), the candidate interval days A=6 days has the highest probability C, so the possibility that the person t will bring the garbage next time is 6 days after the last date of bringing the garbage. Probability is high. However, if the operator of the garbage station takes an action to prompt the bringer t to bring it after 6 days, which is the most probable, for example, he feels that he was urged even though he was thinking of bringing it the next day. , may stop bringing. Therefore, in the present invention, a threshold value is used to select the number of days when the possibility of bringing something is extremely low, not the day when the possibility of bringing something is the highest. That is, in the increasing direction of the candidate interval days A, the candidate interval days A _th indicating the probability C _th that the probability C with a high possibility falls below an arbitrary threshold value after the maximum value C _max is selected. The threshold can be arbitrarily set, and examples thereof include 0.01, 0.005, and 0.001. When the threshold value is set to 0.01 (1%) for the probability C in FIG. 7B, the candidate interval days A=13 Days can be selected as the candidate interval days _Ath . Then, the day when 13 days have passed since the last day when the bringer t brought the garbage can be determined as the reference date for the timing of taking action to encourage the bringer t to bring the garbage.

The threshold can be arbitrarily set, for example, by further feeding back the result of the action performed by the operator on the bearer based on the result of this timing determination.

Next, the output step outputs the timing. In the present invention, "timing output" may be, for example, the output of a timing reference date, the date on which the action is taken based on the reference date, or the period during which the action is taken. The output step can be executed, for example, by the output unit 15 of the timing determination device 10. As described above, the timing determination device 10 may output to the external device, or the display 105 of the timing determination device 10 may display. may

[Embodiment 2]
Among the bringers, for example, there are those who do not accumulate a sufficient amount of bring date information, and those who do. In the first embodiment, even for a bringer who does not accumulate a sufficient amount of bringing date information, the number of days between bringing the parcels to the next bringing can be accurately estimated and the timing can be determined. Embodiment 2 will exemplify a form in which, for a bringer for whom a sufficient amount of bring date information has been accumulated, the candidate number of days is estimated from the bring date information of the bringer, and the timing is determined. Note that this embodiment does not exclude the processing according to the first embodiment for a bringer for whom a sufficient amount of bringing date information has been accumulated.

FIG. 8 is a block diagram showing an example configuration of the timing determination device 10 of the present embodiment, which is the same as the timing determination device 10 of the first embodiment unless otherwise indicated. The timing determination device 10 of the present embodiment includes the interval days probability calculation unit in Embodiment 1 as a first interval days probability calculation unit 13, and further includes a selection unit 21 and a second interval days probability calculation unit 22. .

Based on the bringing date information of the bringer t, if the bringing date information of the bringer t is less than 2, the selection unit 21 excludes the bringer t from the estimation target, and the bringer t has less than 4 bringing date information (or an average If the number of interval days is less than 3, and the average interval days are not normal, the first interval days probability calculation unit 13 will process the bringer t. As a person, choose. If there are less than two pieces of information on the date of bringing, there is no information on the number of days between the bringing of the person t, so it is considered impossible to estimate and is excluded from the target of estimation. Also, if there are less than 4 pieces of information on the date of arrival, for example, the normality test cannot be performed. However, if there is no normality, the processing is performed by the first interval days probability calculation unit 13 on the assumption that there is no reliable and sufficient amount of information.

Further, based on the bringing date information of the bringer t, if there are four or more pieces of bringing date information and the information of the average interval days has normality, the selecting unit 21 selects the bringer t as the third person. The 2-interval days probability calculation unit 22 selects the target person for processing the bringing date information.

As described above, according to the present embodiment, the selector 21 can change the interval days probability calculation means depending on whether or not the bringer t is a bringer whose sufficient amount of bring date information has not been accumulated.

When the selection unit 21 selects the bringer t as a target person whose bringing date information is to be processed by the second interval days probability calculation unit 22, the second interval days probability calculation unit 22 calculates the average interval days of the bringer t. From μ _i and standard deviation σ _i , a probability B for each candidate interval days A is calculated based on a normal distribution. Then, the timing determining unit 14 selects the candidate interval days A _th indicating a probability B _th below an arbitrary threshold after the maximum value B _max of the probability B in the increasing direction of the candidate interval days A, and The day when the candidate interval days A _th elapses from the day when t last brought the garbage is determined as the reference date for the timing of taking action to prompt the bringer t to bring the garbage.

The timing determination method of the present embodiment includes the interval days probability calculation step of Embodiment 1 as the first interval days probability calculation step, and further includes the selection step and the second interval days probability calculation step, except that the This is the same as the timing determination method of the first embodiment.

In the selecting step, based on the bringing date information of the bringing person t, if the bringing date information is less than 2, the bringer t is excluded from the estimation target, and if the bringing bringing date information is less than 4: Then, if the average number of interval days is not normal, the person t is selected as a target person whose bringing date information is to be processed by the first interval number of days probability calculation step. Further, in the selecting step, based on the bringing date information of the bringer t, if there are four or more pieces of bringing date information and if the information on the average interval days has normality, the bringer t is selected as the third person. The 2-interval days probability calculation unit 22 selects the target person for processing the bringing date information. The selection step can be performed by the selection unit 21 of the timing determination device 10, for example.

When the selecting step selects the bringer t as a target person whose bringer date information is to be processed by the second interval days probability calculation step, the second interval days probability calculation step calculates the average number of interval days of the bringer t. From μ _i and standard deviation σ _i , a probability B for each candidate interval days A is calculated based on a normal distribution. Then, the timing determination step selects the candidate interval days A _th indicating a probability B _th below an arbitrary threshold after the maximum value B _max of the probability B in the increasing direction of the candidate interval days A, and The day when the candidate interval days A _th elapses from the day when t last brought the garbage is determined as the reference date for the timing of taking action to prompt the bringer t to bring the garbage. The second interval days probability calculation step can be executed by the second interval days probability calculation unit 22 of the timing determination device 10, for example.

The second interval days probability calculation step will be described with reference to the flowchart of FIG. 9 as an example. First, based on the bringing date information of the bringer t, the average number of interval days μ _it is calculated (S101), and the standard deviation σ _it is calculated (S102). These may be calculated, or information pre-stored in the storage unit 11 may be used.

Next, A in Equation 1 below is set to an initial value of "1" (S103). Formula 1 is, for example, a definite integral formula for calculating the area of the filled region in the probability density function of FIG. In Equation 1, A is the candidate interval days from the last bring date to the next expected bring date, μ is the average interval days μ _it , σ is its standard deviation σ _it , and x is , are the real variables in the integration method.

Next, the candidate interval days A=1 day probability B is calculated from the above equation 1 (S104) and recorded (S105). Then, the number of interval days A is increased by one day (S106), _{and it is determined whether or not the number of interval days A exceeds "μ it +} 3σ _{it "} (S107). (NO), the steps from the step (S104) are repeated, and if the number of interval days A exceeds the aforementioned "μ _it +3σ _it " (YES), the obtained result is output and the process ends (END).

By these steps, for example, when the average interval days μ _it =6.17 Days and its standard deviation σ _it =0.98, the probability B for each candidate interval days A is calculated as shown in the table of FIG. , is output. Then, for this probability B, 9 days can be selected as the number of interval days A below the threshold value (for example, 0.01), as in the first embodiment.

Next, the timing determination method of this embodiment will be described with reference to the flowchart of FIG. 10 as an example.

First, the bearer t whose next action date is to be estimated is determined (S201). Then, based on the bringing date information of the bringer t, it is determined whether or not there are two or more pieces of bringing date information (S202). It is determined whether or not the above is satisfied (S204). If there are four or more pieces of information on the date of bringing (YES), normality test is performed on those pieces of information (S205), and the presence or absence of normality is determined (S206). If there is normality (YES), assuming that a sufficient amount of bringing date information has been accumulated for the bringer t, the above-described second interval days probability calculation step is performed (S207) to determine the timing reference date. (S210).

On the other hand, if there are less than two pieces of information on the date of bringing (S202, NO), there is no information on the interval days, so it is determined that the timing cannot be determined (S203). In addition, if there are less than 4 pieces of information on the date of arrival (S204, NO), and if the normality test (S205) determines that there is no normality (S206, NO), the information on the number of interval days is not sufficient. Assuming that there is no variation coefficient distribution calculation step is performed (S208). For the variation coefficient distribution, for example, information that is calculated in advance and stored in the storage unit 11 may be used. Further, the first interval days probability calculation step described in the first embodiment is performed (S209), and the reference date for the timing is determined (S210).

Then, the result of the determined timing and the result of undecidable timing are output (S211), and the process ends.

[Embodiment 3]
A program of the present embodiment is a program capable of executing the timing determination method of the present invention on a computer. Alternatively, the program of this embodiment may be recorded on a computer-readable recording medium, for example. The recording medium is not particularly limited, and includes, for example, the above-described storage medium.

Although the present invention has been described with reference to the embodiments, the present invention is not limited to the above embodiments. Various changes that can be understood by those skilled in the art can be made to the configuration and details of the present invention within the scope of the present invention.

10 Timing determination device 11 Storage unit 12 Variation coefficient distribution calculation unit 13 Interval days probability calculation unit 14 Timing determination unit 15 Output unit

Claims (10)

A storage unit, a coefficient of variation distribution calculation unit, an interval days probability calculation unit, a timing determination unit, and an output unit,
The storage unit
storing bring-date information about bringing garbage for each of a plurality of bringers;
The bringing date information includes an average number of interval days μ _i , a standard deviation σ _i , and a coefficient of variation X for the number of interval days of the bringing date,
The coefficient of variation X is the ratio of the standard deviation σ _i and the average interval days μ _i ,
The coefficient of variation distribution calculation unit is
calculating a probability distribution Z representing the relationship between the coefficient of variation X and the probability Y thereof based on a normal distribution from the coefficient of variation X of the plurality of bearers;
The interval days probability calculation unit,
Based on the probability distribution _Z , each standard deviation σ _it to calculate
From the average interval days μ _it and each standard deviation σ _it , a probability B for each candidate interval days A until the next action date is calculated for each standard deviation σ _it based on a normal distribution,
Weighting the probability B for each of the candidate interval days A with the probability Y corresponding to the standard deviation σ _it to calculate a weighted average probability C for each of the candidate interval days A;
The timing determination unit
Selecting a candidate interval days A _th that indicates a weighted average probability C _th below an arbitrary threshold after the maximum value C _max of the weighted weighted average probability C in the increasing direction of the candidate interval days A;
determining a day when the candidate interval days A _th have passed since the last day the bringer t brought the garbage as a reference date for timing to take an action to prompt the bringer t to bring the garbage,
The output unit
outputting the timing;
A timing determination device for prompting the bringing of garbage, characterized by: Furthermore, including a selection part,
The selection unit
Based on the bringing date information of the bringer t, if there are less than two pieces of bringing date information, removing the bringer t from estimation targets,
If there are less than four pieces of information on the date of bringing the item, and if the average number of days between each item is not normal, the person who brings the item t is selected as a target person for whom the date of bringing item is to be processed by the probability calculation unit for the number of days between items. 2. A decision making device according to claim 1. including the interval days probability calculation unit as a first interval days probability calculation unit;
Furthermore, including a second interval days probability calculation unit,
The selection unit
Based on the bringing date information of the bringer t, if the number of bringing dates information is four or more and the information of the average interval days has normality, the bringer t is calculated by the second interval days probability calculation unit Select as a subject for processing the bring date information by
The second interval days probability calculation unit,
Calculate a probability B for each candidate interval days A based on a normal distribution from the average interval days μ _it and standard deviation σ _it of the bringer t,
The timing determination unit
Selecting a candidate interval days A _th indicating a probability B _th below an arbitrary threshold after the maximum value B _max of the probability B in the increasing direction of the candidate interval days A,
A date on which the candidate interval days A _th have passed since the last day when the bringer t brought the trash is determined as a reference date for timing to initiate an action prompting the bringer t to bring the trash. 3. The determining device according to claim 2. 4. The determination device according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein each of the days is a number of days excluding holidays of the place of delivery. including a variation coefficient distribution calculation step, an interval days probability calculation step, a timing determination step, and an output step;
Using bring date information for trash pick-up by multiple bringers,
The bringing date information includes an average number of interval days μ _i , a standard deviation σ _i , and a coefficient of variation X for the number of interval days of the bringing date,
The coefficient of variation X is the ratio of the standard deviation σ _i and the average interval days μ _i ,
The coefficient of variation distribution calculation step includes:
calculating a probability distribution Z representing the relationship between the coefficient of variation X and the probability Y thereof based on a normal distribution from the coefficient of variation X of the plurality of bearers;
The interval days probability calculation step includes:
Based on the probability distribution _Z , each standard deviation σ _it to calculate
From the average interval days μ _it and each standard deviation σ _it , a probability B for each candidate interval days A until the next action date is calculated for each standard deviation σ _it based on a normal distribution,
Weighting the probability B for each of the candidate interval days A with the probability Y corresponding to the standard deviation σ _it to calculate a weighted average probability C for each of the candidate interval days A;
The timing determination step includes:
Selecting a candidate interval days A _th that indicates a weighted average probability C _th below an arbitrary threshold after the maximum value C _max of the weighted weighted average probability C in the increasing direction of the candidate interval days A;
determining a day when the candidate interval days A _th have passed since the last day the bringer t brought the garbage as a reference date for timing to take an action to prompt the bringer t to bring the garbage,
The output step includes
outputting said timing;
A method for determining timing for prompting to bring garbage , wherein each of the above steps is executed by a computer . Furthermore, including a selection step,
The selection step includes
Based on the bringing date information of the bringer t, if there are less than two pieces of bringing date information, removing the bringer t from estimation targets,
If there are less than four pieces of information on the date of bringing the item, and if the average number of days between each item is not normal, selecting the person to bring the item t as a subject whose bringing date information is to be processed by the probability calculation step of the number of days between items. A determination method according to claim 5 . including the interval days probability calculation step as a first interval days probability calculation step;
Furthermore, including a second interval days probability calculation step,
The selection step includes
Based on the bringing date information of the bringer t, if the bringing date information is four or more and the information of the average interval days has normality, the bringer t is calculated in the second interval days probability calculation step Select as a subject for processing the bring date information by
The second interval days probability calculation step includes:
Calculate a probability B for each candidate interval days A based on a normal distribution from the average interval days μ _it and standard deviation σ _it of the bringer t,
The timing determination step includes:
Selecting a candidate interval days A _th indicating a probability B _th below an arbitrary threshold after the maximum value B _max of the probability B in the increasing direction of the candidate interval days A,
A date on which the candidate interval days A _th have passed since the last day when the bringer t brought the trash is determined as a reference date for timing to initiate an action prompting the bringer t to bring the trash. 6. The determination method according to 6. 8. The determination method according to any one of claims 5 to 7, wherein each of the number of days is a number of days excluding holidays of the place of delivery. A program for causing a computer to execute the timing determination method according to any one of claims 5 to 8. A computer-readable recording medium recording the program according to claim 9 .

Images