JP6698375B2 - Surplus power purchase price determination system, surplus power purchase unit price determination system, and standard purchase unit price setting system - Google Patents

Description

  Excess power generated by consuming the raw material gas supplied from the gas utility.The distributed power generation equipment to be purchased reversely flows the excess power of the distributed power generation equipment to the commercial grid. Type power generation device, when purchasing from a user, the surplus power purchase price determination system that determines the purchase price of the surplus power amount, the surplus power purchase unit price determination system that determines the purchase unit price of the surplus power amount, and the surplus power amount. The present invention relates to a standard purchase unit price setting system that sets a standard purchase unit price for determining the purchase unit price of all the users in common.

  As a distributed power generation device that consumes the above-mentioned raw material gas to generate electricity, a fuel cell that reforms a hydrocarbon gas in a raw material gas (for example, city gas) to generate hydrogen and uses the hydrogen as fuel to generate electricity There is a fuel cell power generation system equipped with. The fuel cell power generation system is a type of cogeneration system (co-generation system) because it can recover the waste heat generated in the system and cover the heat load.

  As a cogeneration system that uses city gas as a raw material gas, there is a gas engine type cogeneration system that drives a generator by the rotation of a gas engine due to combustion of the raw material gas to generate electricity, and before the spread of fuel cell power generation systems. Was widespread. Since the fuel cell power generation system has higher power generation efficiency than this gas engine type cogeneration system, it is possible to perform operation control that follows the power load (see, for example, Patent Documents 1 to 5 below).

  However, in a cogeneration system for home use, when used in a system interconnection with a commercial system power source, it is usually required that the surplus power is not reversely flowed to the commercial system side. Therefore, in the fuel cell power generation system, operation control that follows the power load is performed so that the power generation amount does not exceed the power load, that is, the surplus power is not generated. Incidentally, in preparation for the case where the load following operation cannot follow the fluctuation of the power load promptly, a method of consuming the slightly generated surplus power by an electric heater or the like to store heat or radiate the heat, or to charge by using a storage battery A method that does not generate reverse power flow has been taken by a method or the like (see, for example, Patent Documents 1 to 5 below).

JP 2004-296267 A JP 2004-279905 A JP, 2005-025986, A JP, 2005-085663, A JP, 2005-135738, A

Since the fuel cell power generation system using city gas (natural gas) as a raw material is a distributed power generation device that uses natural gas with a low environmental load, there is no power transmission and distribution loss, high power generation efficiency, energy saving effect, and CO ₂ saving. It is known to be highly effective. Therefore, if the surplus power of such a distributed power generation device can be effectively utilized, the energy saving effect and the CO ₂ saving effect in the society as a whole are expected to increase, and further, by supplementing the peak power demand with the surplus power. A peak cut effect is also expected.

However, if the surplus power of a distributed power generator using city gas as a raw material is purchased by reverse power flow, the power transmission and distribution business operator of the commercial grid will purchase it. The purchase price from the user of the distributed power generation device will be kept low so that no loss occurs due to the purchase of excess power of the device. Therefore, there is no cost merit to the surplus power for the user of the distributed power generation device. Furthermore, the purchase of surplus power from the decentralized power generation equipment increases the demand for gas due to the generation of surplus power, and only gas companies that supply city gas, etc. will benefit. Has not been realized yet. Therefore, the power generation capacity of the fuel cell power generation system having a large energy saving effect and a large CO ₂ saving effect is not fully utilized socially, and social loss is left untreated.

  The present invention has been made in view of the above problems, and an object thereof is to promote effective utilization of surplus power of a distributed power generation device that consumes a raw material gas such as a fuel cell power generation system to generate power. , A surplus power purchase price determination system that determines the purchase price of the surplus power amount of the distributed power generation device that is profitable to both the user of the distributed power generation device and the operator who purchases the surplus power, and determines the purchase unit price of the surplus power amount It is an object of the present invention to provide a surplus power purchase unit price determination system or a standard purchase unit price setting system that sets a standard purchase unit price for determining the purchase unit price of the surplus power amount commonly to all the users.

  The inventor of the present application believes that a gas business that supplies a raw material gas to a distributed power generation device purchases surplus power of the distributed power generation device, which is beneficial to both the user of the distributed power generation device and the business operator who purchases the surplus power. The inventors have found that it is possible to set a purchase price for the surplus power amount that occurs, and have reached the present invention described below.

The surplus power purchase price determination system according to the present invention is a distributed power generation system in which a distributed power generation device for surplus power purchase that consumes a raw material gas supplied from a gas utility to generate electric power has a reverse flow in a commercial grid. An information processing system for determining a purchase price of the surplus power amount when the gas utility purchases the surplus power amount from a user of the distributed power generation device,
A value of a predetermined raw material price or a value corresponding to the raw material price, which is a factor of the price fluctuation of the raw material gas, at a predetermined time point or a predetermined period prior to the purchase target period is accepted as a first input value, and The purchase unit price for each target period, which is the purchase unit price, is based on a reference purchase unit price that has a positive correlation with the change of the first input value and that changes monotonically or stepwise, for all the users. Commonly, the purchase price of the surplus power measured by a purchase unit price calculation unit that calculates according to the first input value for each of the purchase target periods, and a power meter that can individually measure the surplus power of the distributed generator The cumulative surplus power amount for each user in the target period is accepted as a second input value, the purchase unit price by target period is accepted as a third input value, and the purchase target is determined based on the second input value and the third input value. A purchase price calculation unit that calculates a purchase price for each target period in each period and stores the purchase price in a storage device is provided, and the reference purchase unit price is an arbitrary first input value within a predetermined fluctuation range. The first condition that the standard purchase unit price exceeds the estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the surplus power amount determined for each user for each of them, and the estimated profit or loss unit price obtained by subtracting the standard purchase unit price from the reverse flow purchase power wholesale unit price And a second condition in which the total increase in the profit of the gas utility expected to increase due to the increase in the consumption amount of the raw material gas per unit amount of the surplus electric power is a positive value. That is the first feature.

Further, the surplus power purchase unit price determination system according to the present invention is the above-mentioned distributed power generation in which the distributed power generation device of surplus power purchase target that consumes the raw material gas supplied from the gas utility to generate power flows backward to the commercial grid. An information processing system for determining a purchase unit price of the surplus power amount when the gas utility purchases the surplus power amount of the device from the user of the distributed power generation device,
A value of a predetermined raw material price or a value corresponding to the raw material price, which is a factor of the price fluctuation of the raw material gas, at a predetermined time point or a predetermined period prior to the purchase target period is accepted as a first input value, and The purchase unit price for each target period, which is the purchase unit price, is based on a reference purchase unit price that has a positive correlation with the change of the first input value and that changes monotonically or stepwise, for all the users. Commonly, a purchase unit price calculation unit that calculates according to the first input value for each purchase target period is provided,
The standard purchase unit price exceeds the estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the surplus power amount, which is determined for each of the users, in the first input value within a predetermined fluctuation range, for each of the users. The first condition, the estimated profit and loss unit price obtained by subtracting the standard purchase unit price from the wholesale unit price of reverse flow purchase power, and the gas utility expected to increase due to the increase in the consumption amount of the raw material gas per unit amount of the surplus electricity amount. The first feature is that the sum of the increased profits of is set so as to satisfy both of the second conditions that are positive values.

  According to the surplus power purchase price determination system and the surplus power purchase unit price determination system of the first feature, an arbitrary first input value within a predetermined fluctuation range (a predetermined raw material price or a raw material price that causes a raw material gas price fluctuation or (The equivalent value), by using the standard purchase unit price that satisfies the first condition for individually securing the profit for each user and the second condition for securing the profit for the gas business side, by the target period in the specific purchase target period The purchase unit price can be calculated. By the way, since the first input value is also used to set the gas unit price applied to the user of the distributed generator, the purchase unit price by target period has a positive correlation with the fluctuation of the gas charge for each purchase target period. Therefore, it is possible to suppress the influence of the fluctuation of the first input value and calculate the purchase unit price for each target period that simultaneously satisfies the first condition and the second condition. As a result, even if the gas charge fluctuates for each purchase target period, it is possible to stably maintain the purchase of surplus power of the distributed power generation device for a long period of time through a plurality of purchase target periods.

  Here, the term “gas business entity” includes not only a single gas business entity but also a complex enterprise of a gas business entity and its related business entity. Therefore, in addition to the case where the same gas company supplies the raw material gas and purchases the surplus electric energy, it is also assumed that the gas company supplies the raw material gas and purchases the surplus electric energy by the related company. It

  Further, the “user of the distributed power generation device” is not limited to the user who is actually the surplus power purchase target, but the user who uses the distributed power generation device but is not yet the surplus power purchase target, Includes users who do not own a distributed power generation system but will use the distributed generation system in the future to purchase surplus power. However, in the case of a user who is a target for purchasing surplus power in the future, the purchase price or purchase unit price of the surplus power is applied to the simulation when the user is a target for purchasing surplus power.

  In addition, the "surplus power amount of the distributed power generation device" is the power amount obtained by subtracting the latter from the former when the "power generation amount of the distributed power generation device" is larger than the "power load (power consumption amount) of the user" (positive Value). The "surplus power of the distributed power generation device" is the power (positive value) obtained by subtracting the latter from the former when the "output power of the distributed power generation device" is larger than the "power load (power consumption) of the user".

  Further, the “value corresponding to the raw material price” means the difference or ratio of the raw material price with respect to the reference amount, and other fuel prices that change in conjunction with the raw material price.

  In addition, "individually measurable wattmeter" means a wattmeter that can individually measure and extract only the surplus power of the distributed generators from the reverse flow. The number is not necessarily one. When the reverse flow power is always equal to the surplus power of the distributed generator, the “individually measurable power meter” is a power meter capable of measuring the reverse flow power.

  Also, the "estimated profit or loss unit price" is a profit (positive value) when the wholesale unit price of the reverse flow purchase power is larger than the standard purchase unit price, and when the standard purchase unit price is larger than the reverse flow purchase power wholesale unit price, It becomes a loss (negative value). That is, both the standard purchase unit price and the wholesale unit price of the reverse flow purchase power change with a change in the first input value (a predetermined raw material price or a value equivalent thereto that causes the price fluctuation of the raw material gas). Because of the different degrees of change, profits or losses can occur as described above.

  Furthermore, by calculating the unit purchase price by target period for all users of the distributed power generation device that are the target of surplus power purchase, targets that satisfy the first condition and the second condition at the same time for all users. Calculation of purchase price by period and purchase price by target period is simplified, and there is no need to set the base purchase unit price, which is the basis of the purchase unit price by target period, for each user. The simplification can be achieved and the calculation load can be significantly reduced.

  Further, the surplus power purchase price determination system and the surplus power purchase unit price determination system according to the present invention are, in addition to the first feature, an energy load for each user, an operating characteristic of the distributed power generation device to be used, and The first user characteristic information regarding the applied gas charge is accepted as an input, and the first condition is set for each of the users within the predetermined variation range of the first input value based on the first user characteristic information. A second feature is that a standard purchase unit price setting unit that sets the standard purchase unit price in common to all the users is provided so as to satisfy both of the second conditions.

  According to the surplus power purchase price determination system and surplus power purchase unit price determination system of the second feature, the standard purchase unit price used in the surplus power purchase price determination system and surplus power purchase unit price determination system of the first feature is It can be set in advance based on the first user characteristic information.

  Further, in the surplus power purchase price determination system and the surplus power purchase unit price determination system according to the present invention, in addition to the second feature, the standard purchase unit price setting unit causes the predetermined fluctuation for each of the users. An estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the surplus power amount is calculated for each of a plurality of different first input values within the range, and the first input value is used as an independent variable, and the corresponding estimated value of the unit power generation cost is calculated. Estimating a plurality of sample points consisting of a pair of the independent variable and the dependent variable as the dependent variable, performing a regression analysis on the distribution of the sample points, and estimating the unit power generation cost with the first input value as the independent variable. A linear regression equation having a value as a dependent variable is derived, and further, within the predetermined variation range of the first input value, the value of the dependent variable of the linear regression equation is the same as that of the sample point of the independent variable. The constant term of the linear regression equation is increased so as to be larger than the value of the dependent variable, the linear regression equation is modified so as to satisfy the first condition, and the reference is calculated using the modified linear regression equation. The third feature is to set the purchase unit price.

  According to the surplus power purchase price determination system and the surplus power purchase unit price determination system of the third feature, the first condition for individually securing the profit on each user side at an arbitrary first input value within a predetermined fluctuation range. It is possible to reliably set the standard purchase unit price that satisfies the second condition for securing profits on the gas business side.

  Furthermore, the surplus power purchase price determination system and the surplus power purchase unit price determination system according to the present invention, in addition to any one of the above characteristics, the operation control mode of the distributed power generation device is It is set to the second operation control mode of the first operation control mode in which the power generation amount follows the load so that the excess power amount does not occur, and the second operation control mode in which the generation of the surplus power amount is allowed. The fourth characteristic is that

  Further, in the surplus power purchase price determination system and the surplus power purchase unit price determination system according to the present invention, in addition to the fourth characteristic, the reference purchase unit price setting unit uses the energy load for each user, and the distributed type to be used. The second user characteristic information regarding the operating characteristics of the power generator, the applied gas rate, and the applied electricity rate is received as an input, and the estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the surplus power amount for the given first input value is given to the user. Separately, from the estimated increase amount of the gas charge with respect to the consumption amount of the raw material gas, which is increased by the change of the operation control mode of the distributed generator from the first operation control mode to the second operation control mode, the operation control mode is calculated. Unit power generation that is calculated by dividing the difference amount obtained by subtracting the estimated reduction amount of the electricity price with respect to the electric power consumption amount supplied from the commercial system, which is reduced by the change of the above, by the estimated value of the surplus electric energy amount estimated in advance for each user. A fifth characteristic is that a cost calculation unit is provided.

  According to the surplus power purchase price determination system and the surplus power purchase unit price determination system of the fifth feature, it is possible to accurately calculate the unit power generation cost in consideration of the decrease in power consumption due to the change of the operation control mode. A margin for the second condition can be secured without excessively satisfying the first condition. Since the gas unit price and the electricity unit price that are the basis of the applied gas charge and the applied electricity charge of the second user characteristic information change according to the fluctuation of the first input value, the estimated increase amount of the gas charge and the electricity charge The estimated reduction amount is a value that reflects the first input value.

  Furthermore, the surplus power purchase price determination system and the surplus power purchase unit price determination system according to the present invention, in addition to the above-mentioned fourth or fifth characteristic, in the second operation control mode, for a part or all of the user. Thus, it is preferable that the distributed power generation device be operation-controlled so that the surplus power amount becomes maximum.

  Furthermore, the surplus power purchase price determination system and the surplus power purchase unit price determination system according to the present invention, in addition to the above-mentioned fourth or fifth characteristic, in the second operation control mode, for a part or all of the user. Therefore, it is preferable that the distributed power generation device is operated at a rated rate.

  Furthermore, the surplus power purchase price determination system and the surplus power purchase unit price determination system according to the present invention, in addition to the above-mentioned fourth or fifth characteristic, in the second operation control mode, for a part or all of the user. Then, the distributed power generation device may be operated with an operating efficiency in which the reference purchase unit price satisfies both the first condition and the second condition within the predetermined variation range of the first input value. preferable.

  Furthermore, the surplus power purchase price determination system and the surplus power purchase unit price determination system according to the present invention, in addition to the fourth or fifth feature described above, provide the distributed power generation apparatus with respect to some or all of the users. It is preferable that the operation control mode is always set to the second operation control mode.

  Further, in the surplus power purchase price determination system and the surplus power purchase unit price determination system according to the present invention, in addition to any one of the above-mentioned features, the first input value decreases when the first condition is within the predetermined fluctuation range. In accordance with the above, the minimum unit price of user profit obtained by subtracting the maximum value of the estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the surplus power amount at the same first input value from the standard purchase unit price at the certain first input value is monotonous or stepwise. A sixth feature is that the third condition that increases is further included.

  According to the surplus power purchase price determination system and the surplus power purchase unit price determination system of the sixth feature described above, the first input value (which causes the price fluctuation of the raw material gas becomes a factor for the user with a small profit on the user side in the first condition. In the situation where the predetermined raw material price or its equivalent value) decreases and the profit due to the purchase of surplus power increases, the profit can be surely distributed to the users with little profit on the user side, and in particular, the user with little profit on the user side. In contrast, an incentive for purchasing surplus power can be provided, and the conditions under which such a user can cooperate in purchasing surplus power are improved, which contributes to effective utilization of the power generation capacity of the distributed power generation device.

  Further, the surplus power purchase price determination system and the surplus power purchase unit price determination system according to the present invention, in addition to any one of the features described above, are provided to each of the users within the predetermined variation range of the first input value. As the distributed generator, a predetermined surplus power purchase target model capable of highly efficient operation is selected so that the standard purchase unit price can satisfy both the first condition and the second condition. preferable.

  Further, in the surplus power purchase price determination system and the surplus power purchase unit price determination system according to the present invention, in addition to any one of the features described above, the distributed power generation device includes a fuel cell using city gas as the raw material gas. It is preferable that it is a combined heat and power supply device, and further, it is preferable that the distributed power generation device includes a combined heat and power supply device including a solid oxide fuel cell.

Further, the standard purchase unit price setting system according to the present invention is the above-mentioned distributed power generation device in which a distributed power generation device for surplus power purchase that consumes a raw material gas supplied from a gas utility to generate power is reversely flowed to a commercial grid. In the case where the gas utility purchases the surplus power amount from the user of the decentralized power generation device, the standard purchase unit price for determining the purchase unit price of the surplus power amount is commonly set for all the users. An information processing system that
The reference purchase unit price is a predetermined raw material price or a value corresponding to the raw material price that becomes a factor of the price fluctuation of the raw material gas, and the value at a predetermined time point or a predetermined period before the purchase target period is an independent variable, and the independent variable is the independent variable. Given as a dependent variable that has a positive correlation with changes in
The energy load of each user, the operating characteristics of the distributed power generation device to be used, and the first user characteristic information regarding the applied gas charge are accepted as inputs, and based on the first user characteristic information, the predetermined value of the independent variable is determined. A standard purchase unit price setting unit that sets the standard purchase unit price for each of the users within the fluctuation range so as to satisfy both the first condition and the second condition;
The first condition is that, in any of the independent variables within the predetermined fluctuation range, the reference purchase unit price for each of the users exceeds an estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the surplus power amount determined for each user. And
The second condition is the estimated profit and loss unit price obtained by subtracting the standard purchase unit price from the wholesale unit price of reverse flow purchase power, and the gas utility expected to increase due to an increase in the consumption amount of the raw material gas per unit amount of the surplus electricity amount. The first feature is that the total increase in the profit of is a positive value.

  According to the standard purchase unit price setting system of the first feature, the standard purchase unit price is set to the surplus power purchase price determination system and the surplus power purchase unit price determination system of the first feature based on the first user characteristic information. In the surplus power purchase price determination system and the surplus power purchase unit price determination system of the first feature, which can be set in advance, an arbitrary first input value within a predetermined fluctuation range (factor of fluctuation of raw material gas price) At a predetermined raw material price or its equivalent value), using a standard purchase unit price that satisfies the first condition for individually securing the profit for each user and the second condition for securing the profit for the gas business side, It is possible to calculate the purchase unit price for each target period during the purchase target period.

  Further, in the standard purchase unit price setting system according to the present invention, in addition to the above-mentioned first feature, the standard purchase unit price setting unit is provided with a plurality of different independent units within the predetermined variation range for each of the users. The estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the surplus power amount is calculated for each variable, and a plurality of sample points each consisting of a pair of the estimated value of the unit power generation cost corresponding to the independent variable are derived to obtain the distribution of the sample points. A regression analysis is performed to derive a linear regression equation with the estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the surplus electricity as a dependent variable, and further, within the predetermined variation range of the independent variable, the linear regression equation is dependent. The linear regression is performed such that the constant term of the linear regression equation is increased so that the value of the variable is larger than the estimated value of the unit power generation cost at the sample point where the independent variables are the same, and the first condition is satisfied. A second feature is that the formula is modified and the standard purchase unit price is set by using the modified linear regression formula.

  According to the standard purchase unit price setting system of the second feature, the first condition for individually securing the profit for each user and the profit for the gas business side are ensured at an arbitrary first input value within a predetermined fluctuation range. It is possible to reliably set the standard purchase unit price that satisfies the second condition.

Further, in the standard purchase unit price setting system according to the present invention, in addition to the first or second feature, the operation control mode of the distributed power generation device causes the surplus power amount to be generated for all the users. Of the first operation control mode in which the amount of power generation follows the load so as not to do, and the second operation control mode in which the generation of the surplus power amount is allowed, the second operation control mode is set,
The standard purchase unit price setting unit accepts as input the second user characteristic information regarding the energy load of each user, the operating characteristics of the distributed power generation device to be used, the applied gas charge, and the applied electricity charge, and the given The estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the surplus power amount with respect to an independent variable is increased for each user by changing the operation control mode of the distributed generator from the first operation control mode to the second operation control mode. The difference obtained by subtracting the estimated decrease amount of the electricity charge for the electric power consumption amount supplied from the commercial system, which is decreased by the change of the operation control mode, from the estimated increase amount of the gas charge for the consumption amount of the raw gas is preliminarily set for each user A third feature is that a unit power generation cost calculation unit that calculates by dividing by the estimated value of the estimated surplus power amount is provided.

  According to the standard purchase unit price setting system of the third feature described above, an accurate unit power generation cost can be calculated in consideration of a decrease in power consumption due to a change in operation control mode, so that the first condition is excessively satisfied. It is possible to secure a margin for the second condition.

According to the surplus power purchase price determination system and the surplus power purchase unit price determination system according to the present invention, the purchase of the surplus power amount of the decentralized power generation device is profitable for both the user of the decentralized power generation device and the business operator purchasing the surplus power. Since the price can be determined, it is possible to promote the effective use of surplus power of the distributed power generation device that consumes the raw material gas of the fuel cell power generation system or the like to generate power. As a result, energy saving and CO ₂ saving are widely and effectively promoted throughout society.

The block diagram which shows the structural example of the device which the user of the distributed generation apparatus which is a surplus electric power purchase object has. The block diagram shown about the example of composition of the surplus electricity purchase price deciding system concerning the embodiment of the present invention. The schematic graph which shows about the calculation method of the purchase unit price by target period. The block diagram shown about the example of composition of a standard purchase unit price setting system. The schematic graph which shows the setting method of standard purchase unit price. The schematic graph which shows the setting method of standard purchase unit price. The schematic graph which shows the setting method of standard purchase unit price.

  Hereinafter, the surplus electricity purchase price determination system according to the embodiment of the present invention will be described. The surplus power purchase price determination system according to the embodiment of the present invention is a distributed power generation system in which a distributed power generation device of surplus power purchase target that consumes a raw material gas supplied from a gas utility to generate power reversely flows to a commercial grid. It determines the purchase price of the surplus power amount when the gas utility purchases the surplus power amount of the device from the user of the distributed power generation device. In addition, a gas business entity is a business entity group including at least a gas business operator that performs a gas supply business. In some cases, the gas business entity may be composed of only a gas business entity, or a plurality of business operators including a gas business entity (composite In some cases, it is composed of corporate bodies. For example, a gas business entity may be formed by a corporate group including a gas business operator and a business operator of another industry having an economic cooperation relationship with the gas business operator. Therefore, when the business operator that is the gas business that supplies the raw material gas and the business that purchases the surplus power of the distributed power generation system are the same gas business, but different businesses (different corporations) Of course it is possible. However, in the following, for simplification of description, a case where the same gas company supplies the raw material gas and purchases the surplus power of the distributed power generation device will be exemplified.

  The distributed power generation device is typically a fuel cell represented by a solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) or a polymer electrolyte fuel cell (PEFC). Therefore, it is preferable to use a solid oxide fuel cell that consumes city gas to generate power and has high power generation efficiency during continuous operation. In the following, a case where the distributed power generation device is a solid oxide fuel cell will be described as an example.

<Equipment owned by the user of the distributed power generation device that is the target of surplus power purchase>
First, a configuration example of a device owned by a user of a distributed power generation device, which is a surplus power purchase target, to which a purchase price of a surplus power amount determined by a surplus power purchase price determination system according to an embodiment of the present invention is applied is illustrated. Will be described with reference to. FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a configuration example of equipment owned by a user of a distributed power generation device that is a surplus power purchase target. Note that FIG. 1 shows only one user (one household).

  As shown in FIG. 1, the user 100 has a distributed power generation apparatus 101, indoor wiring 102, a power load 103, a heat load 104, and a power meter 105. As described above, the distributed power generation device 101 is a distributed power generation device for surplus power purchase.

  The distributed power generation device 101 is a solid oxide fuel cell that consumes city gas and generates power as described above. The distributed power generation device 101 has a built-in inverter for converting the generated DC power into AC power that can be used by various devices and that can perform reverse power flow to the commercial system 200 and output the AC power.

  The distributed power generation device 101 does not operate in an operation control mode (hereinafter, referred to as “first operation control mode”) that causes the power generation amount to follow the load so that excess power amount does not occur, and allows generation of excess power. It is set by, for example, a service person of a gas company to operate in an operation control mode (hereinafter, referred to as “second operation control mode”). In particular, when the distributed power generation device 101 is set to operate in the second operation control mode that maximizes the surplus power (maximizes the amount of power generation) or the second operation control mode that performs the rated operation, It is preferable because the power generation efficiency of the mold power generation device 101 can be increased to or near the maximum value.

  The power load 103 is configured by a device that consumes power, and consumes the power supplied from the distributed power generation device 101 and the commercial system 200 via the indoor wiring 102. Note that the power storage device also consumes power during charging and thus can be included in the power load 103. Further, the heat load 103 is configured by a boiler or the like that heats water by utilizing waste heat of the distributed power generation device 101.

  The power meter 105 is composed of, for example, a smart meter that transmits data including measurement value information. The power meter 105 measures the amount of electric power supplied from the commercial system 200 to the user 100, and also measures the amount of surplus electric power that is the amount of surplus power that flows backward from the user 100 to the commercial system 200. Here, the surplus power amount is the surplus power amount of the distributed power generation device 101 in which the distributed power generation device 101 reversely flows the commercial power system 200, and the power load 103 is calculated from the amount of power generated by the distributed power generation device 101. It is the amount of power obtained by subtracting the amount of power consumed.

  Although FIG. 1 illustrates the case where the user 100 does not have any other power generation device such as a solar power generation device, the user 100 may have these devices. However, it is assumed that the power meter 105 can independently measure the surplus power that the distributed power generation device 101 reversely flows, separately from the surplus power that the other power generation devices reversely flow.

<Surplus electricity purchase price determination system>
Next, a configuration example of the surplus electricity purchase price determination system according to the embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing a configuration example of the surplus electricity purchase price determination system according to the embodiment of the present invention.

  As shown in FIG. 1, the surplus power purchase price determination system 10 according to the embodiment of the present invention includes a purchase unit price calculation unit 11 and a purchase price calculation unit 12 (corresponding to a “surplus power purchase unit price determination system”).

  Each of the purchase unit price calculation unit 11 and the purchase price calculation unit 12 is composed of, for example, an arithmetic unit such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit) and a memory unit such as a semiconductor memory, and operates by the arithmetic unit executing a predetermined program. I do. The purchase unit price calculation unit 11 and the purchase price calculation unit 12 may be configured by a common arithmetic unit and memory device.

  The purchase unit price calculation unit 11 and the purchase price calculation unit 12 calculate the purchase price for each target period, which is the purchase price of the surplus electricity amount that the user 100 reversely flows during the purchase target period (for example, one month) that is a predetermined period. .. Hereinafter, each processing of the purchase unit price calculation unit 11 and the purchase price calculation unit 12 will be described.

  First, the purchase unit price calculation unit 11 calculates a purchase unit price for each target period, which is a purchase unit price in the purchase target period, using a reference purchase unit price that is set in advance (stored in a nonvolatile memory device, for example). This calculation method will be described with reference to the drawings. FIG. 3 is a schematic graph showing a method of calculating a purchase unit price by target period.

The standard purchase unit price shown in FIG. 3 is a function showing the relationship between the crude oil price (eg, unit price per barrel) and the purchase unit price (eg, unit price per kWh), and the larger the crude oil price, the larger the purchase unit price. Is a function indicating that there is a positive correlation. The crude oil price is used to calculate the unit price of city gas, which is the raw material gas of the distributed power generation apparatus 101, and is a value (a value corresponding to the raw material price) that is linked to the unit price of the city gas. The standard purchase unit price may be a function showing the relationship between the raw material price itself (for example, the unit price per 1 m ^{3 of} city gas) and the purchase unit price. Further, the standard purchase unit price may be a function that has a positive correlation with a change in the raw material price or a value corresponding to the raw material price and that changes monotonically or stepwise, as shown in FIG. A non-linear function other than a linear function (linear function) may be used. The purchase unit price calculation unit 11 may store the reference purchase unit price as function data or table data.

  The purchase unit price calculation unit 11 applies the first input value, which is the crude oil price, input from the database 20 configured by a recording device capable of recording a large amount of data such as a hard disk, to the standard purchase unit price shown in FIG. By doing so, the purchase unit price by target period is calculated.

  The first input value is a crude oil price at a predetermined time point or a predetermined period before the purchase target period. Specifically, for example, the first input value is the average crude oil price during the three months from five months before the purchase target period to two months before (for example, the crude oil price used when determining the unit price of city gas). Is. The purchase unit price for each target period calculated by the purchase unit price calculating unit 11 is a value common to all the users #1 to #n. Note that the purchase unit price calculation unit 11 may calculate the first input value by acquiring the crude oil price at a predetermined time point (every day) during the predetermined period and averaging the crude oil price.

  The purchase price calculation unit 12 is the cumulative surplus power amount for each user in the purchase target period, which is input from the server 300 that records the data of the surplus power amount transmitted by the power meter 105 of each of the users #1 to #n. Accept a second input value. Further, the purchase price calculation unit 12 receives the third input value which is the purchase unit price for each target period calculated by the purchase unit price calculation unit 11, which is input from the purchase unit price calculation unit 11. The server 300 may be managed by a gas utility, but may be managed by a general electric utility that transmits and distributes power.

  Then, the purchase price calculation unit 12 (based on the second input value and the third input value (typically, multiplying the second input value by the third input value, and further adjusting as necessary)), The purchase price for each target period is calculated for each user and is stored in the storage device 30 including a recording device capable of recording a large amount of data such as a hard disk. The storage device 30 and the database 20 may be configured by a common storage device.

  Next, a configuration example of the standard purchase unit price setting system that sets the standard purchase unit price in the purchase unit price calculation unit 11 in the surplus power purchase price determination system 10 described above will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 4 is a block diagram showing a configuration example of the standard purchase unit price setting system.

  As shown in FIG. 4, the standard purchase unit price setting system 50 (corresponding to the “standard purchase unit price setting unit”) includes a unit power generation cost calculation unit 51 and a condition confirmation unit 52.

  Each of the unit power generation cost calculation unit 51 and the condition confirmation unit 52 is composed of, for example, an arithmetic device such as a CPU and a memory device such as a semiconductor memory, and operates by the arithmetic device executing a predetermined program. Part or all of the unit power generation cost calculation unit 51 and the condition confirmation unit 52 may be configured by a common arithmetic unit and memory device. Further, part or all of the unit power generation cost calculation unit 51 and the condition confirmation unit 52 are operations common to some or all of the purchase unit price calculation unit 11 and the purchase price calculation unit 12 in the surplus power purchase price determination system 10 described above. It may be composed of a device and a memory device.

  The unit power generation cost calculation unit 51 and the condition confirmation unit 52 receive user characteristic information input from the database 40 including a recording device capable of recording a large amount of data such as a hard disk. The user characteristic information includes energy load (electric power load and heat load (hot water supply load)) for each user, operating characteristics of the distributed power generation device 101 to be used, applicable gas charge (method of calculating city gas charge applied to user), and It is information about applied electricity charges (calculation method of electricity charges applied to users). Note that the heat load may not be included in the energy load for the purpose of simplifying the calculation. Further, the database 40 may be configured by a storage device that is common to part or all of the storage device 30 and the database 20.

  Here, a method of setting the standard purchase unit price by the unit power generation cost calculation unit 51 and the condition confirmation unit 52 will be described with reference to the drawings. 5 to 7 are schematic graphs showing a method of setting the standard purchase unit price.

  First, the unit power generation cost calculation unit 51 calculates an estimated value of each unit power generation cost of surplus power amount as shown in FIG. 5 (each point in the dot area in the drawing). The unit power generation cost is the cost required to generate a unit amount of surplus power.

  First, the unit power generation cost calculation unit 51 estimates, for each user, a gas charge with respect to the consumption amount of city gas that increases due to a change in the operation control mode of the distributed power generation apparatus 101 from the first operation control mode to the second operation control mode. The difference amount obtained by subtracting the estimated reduction amount of the electricity charge with respect to the electric power consumption amount supplied from the commercial grid 200, which is reduced by the change of the operation control mode, from the increase amount is divided by the estimated value of the surplus electric energy estimated in advance for each user. By doing so, the estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the surplus electricity amount is calculated. The estimated increase amount of the gas charge, the estimated decrease amount of the electricity charge, and the estimated value of the surplus power amount are estimated values for a predetermined period such as one year. In addition, the estimated increase amount of the gas charge can be calculated based on the increase amount of the gas consumption estimated based on the power load, the heat load, and the operating characteristics of the distributed power generation device 101 of the user and the applied gas charge. it can. In addition, the estimated reduction amount of the electricity bill can be calculated based on the reduction amount of the power consumption estimated based on the power load of the user and the operating characteristics of the distributed power generation device 101, and the applied electricity bill. However, since the city gas charge and the electricity charge applied to the user fluctuate according to the crude oil price (that is, the first input value), it is necessary to assume the crude oil price in order to perform this calculation. .. Therefore, the estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the surplus power amount calculated by this calculation is the estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the surplus power amount in the case of the assumed specific crude oil price. As described above, the estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the surplus power amount is the user characteristic information (“the (Corresponding to “2 user characteristic information”).

  The estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the surplus power amount in the case of a specific crude oil price, which is the above calculation result by the unit power generation cost calculation unit 51, is the light heat generated when the distributed power generation apparatus 101 is operation-controlled in the second operation mode. The difference obtained by subtracting the estimated amount of utility costs when operating the distributed power generation device 101 in the first operation mode from the estimated amount of money (sum of estimated amount of gas charge and estimated amount of electricity charge) is calculated by the user. Alternatively, it can be calculated by dividing by an estimated value of the surplus electric energy estimated in advance. The estimated value of the utility bill and the estimated value of the surplus power amount are estimated values in a predetermined period such as one year. In addition, the estimated amount of the gas charge can be calculated based on the gas load estimated based on the power load, the heat load, and the operating characteristics of the distributed power generation device 101 of the user, and the applied gas charge. In addition, the estimated amount of the electricity charge can be calculated based on the electricity consumption amount estimated based on the power load of the user and the operating characteristics of the distributed power generation apparatus 101 and the applied electricity charge.

  Then, the unit power generation cost calculation unit 51 sets the estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the surplus power amount in the case of the assumed specific crude oil price obtained by the above calculation within a predetermined fluctuation range (P1 or more and P2 or less). By making multiple calculations while varying the price, the estimated value (dot area in the figure) of the unit power generation cost in the case of various crude oil prices as shown in FIG. 5 is calculated. If necessary, a predetermined function may be applied to the calculated unit power generation cost of the surplus power amount for adjustment.

  As shown in FIG. 5, the estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the surplus power amount calculated by the above method has a fluctuation range of the estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the surplus power amount as the crude oil price increases within the fluctuation range. The distribution becomes wider (dot area in the figure). More specifically, the distribution is at the upper limit value P2 of the crude oil price rather than the fluctuation range (upper limit value Q12−lower limit value Q11) of the estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the surplus electricity amount at the lower limit value P1 of the fluctuation range of the crude oil price. The fluctuation range (upper limit value Q22−lower limit value Q21) of the estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the surplus power amount becomes large. Further, in the distribution, the slope of the straight line connecting the upper limit values Q12 and Q22 is larger than the slope of the straight line connecting the lower limit values Q11 and Q12 of the estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the surplus power amount.

  Next, the condition confirmation unit 52 uses the linear regression equation (in the figure, which is a sample point) at each point (each point in the dot area in the figure) of the estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the surplus electricity amount as shown in FIG. The broken line) is derived. Specifically, the condition confirmation unit 52 sets the crude oil price as an independent variable with respect to the distribution of sample points that are points of the estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the surplus power amount obtained by the calculation of the unit power generation cost calculation unit 51. , A regression analysis is performed using the estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the surplus power amount as a dependent variable, and a linear regression equation as shown in FIG. 6 is derived. As a method of deriving the linear regression equation, a known method such as the least square method can be adopted. Also, a non-linear regression equation may be derived, and in this case, the standard purchase unit price, which is a non-linear function, will be set.

  As shown in FIG. 6, the linear regression equation calculated by the above method is a straight line that passes through the middle of the distribution of the estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the surplus power amount (dot area in the figure). More specifically, the linear regression equation is used between the upper limit value Q12 and the lower limit value Q11 of the estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the surplus power amount at the lower limit value P1 of the fluctuation range of the crude oil price, and the surplus power at the upper limit value P2 of the crude oil price. It passes between the upper limit Q22 and the lower limit Q21 of the estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the quantity. The slope of the linear regression equation is larger than the slope of the straight line connecting the lower limit values Q11 and Q12 of the estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the surplus power amount, and the upper limit values Q12 and Q22 of the estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the surplus power amount. It is smaller than the slope of the straight line that connects.

  Next, the condition confirmation unit 52 sets the standard purchase unit price (solid line in the figure) shown in FIG. 6 by correcting the obtained linear regression equation. At this time, the condition confirmation unit 52 sets a standard purchase unit price that satisfies at least two conditions, the first condition and the second condition.

  The first condition is that, within a predetermined fluctuation range of the crude oil price (P1 or more and P2 or less), the standard purchase unit price is an estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the surplus power amount that is determined for each user (estimation of the unit power generation cost of the surplus power amount. Value distribution). That is, the first condition is a condition under which the purchase of the surplus power amount of the decentralized distributed power generation device 101 is profitable to all users.

  Specifically, in order to satisfy the first condition, the condition confirmation unit 52 determines that the estimated value (dependent variable) of the unit power generation cost of the surplus power amount in the linear regression equation is the crude oil price (independent variable). The standard purchase unit price is set by increasing the constant term of the linear regression equation so that is larger than the estimated value of the unit power generation cost (the value of the dependent variable) of the surplus electricity at the same sampling point. The upper limit of the increase amount of this constant term is determined by the second condition described later.

  At this time, if the distribution of the estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the surplus electricity amount is as shown in FIG. 6, the standard purchase unit price satisfying the first condition is the standard purchase unit price at a certain crude oil price as the crude oil price decreases. The third condition is satisfied in which the minimum unit price of user profit obtained by subtracting the maximum value of the estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the surplus power amount at the same crude oil price monotonically or gradually increases.

  The second condition is an estimated profit/loss unit price (user's unit price of subtracting the standard purchase unit price from the wholesale unit price of reverse flow purchased power (unit price when the reverse power surplus power purchased from the user is wholesaled to a retail electric power company, etc.). The unit price of the profit and loss generated by the gas utility due to the purchase and wholesale of surplus electricity) and the total increase in the profit of the gas operator expected due to the increase in city gas consumption per unit amount of surplus electricity are positive values. Is to be. The second condition will be described with reference to FIG. 7.

  As shown in Fig. 7, if the wholesale unit price of the reverse flow power purchase (broken line in the figure) becomes larger than the standard purchase unit price (solid line in the figure) (crude oil price is in the range smaller than P3 in the figure), estimated profit or loss The unit price becomes a positive value, which is a profit for gas utilities. On the other hand, if the wholesale unit price of reverse flow power purchase is smaller than the standard unit purchase price (range where crude oil price is higher than P3 in the figure), the estimated profit/loss unit price becomes a negative value, resulting in a loss for the gas utility. However, even in this case, the user is consuming a large amount of city gas in order to make a reverse flow, so that a profit is generated for the gas operator, and if the profit exceeds the above-mentioned loss, the profit and loss is offset, Eventually, it can benefit the gas utility. Therefore, the condition confirmation unit 52 sets the standard purchase unit price so that the gas utility ultimately gains the profit even when the standard purchase unit price is smaller than the wholesale unit price of the reverse flow purchase power. Since the profit of the gas utility can be calculated based on the estimated amount of the gas charge for each user, it can be calculated by the information on the energy load of each user, the operating characteristics of the distributed power generation device 101 to be used, and the applicable gas charge. It can be calculated based on certain user characteristic information (corresponding to “first user characteristic information”).

As described above, according to the surplus power purchase price determination system 10 according to the embodiment of the present invention, the surplus of the distributed power generation device 101, which is profitable to both the user of the distributed power generation device 101 and the gas company who purchases the surplus power, is provided. Since the purchase price of the amount of power can be determined, it is possible to promote the effective use of surplus power of the distributed power generation device 101 that consumes city gas to generate power. As a result, energy saving and CO ₂ saving are widely and effectively promoted throughout society.

  In the above-described embodiment, the standard purchase unit price set in the purchase unit price calculation unit 11 of the surplus electricity purchase price determination system 10 is set by the standard purchase unit price setting system 50. The standard purchase unit price obtained by the calculation used may be set in the purchase unit price calculation unit 11.

  Further, in the above-described embodiment, the user 100 is described as a user who actually has the distributed power source 101 and is a target of surplus power purchase, but the standard purchase unit price is set (see FIG. 4). The user referred to in (7 to 7) is not limited to such a user, and may be a user who will be a surplus power purchase target by using the distributed power generation device 101 in the future. The same applies to users who calculate purchase prices by target period, and such users may include users who will be targets for purchasing surplus power by using the distributed power generation device 101 in the future. However, the purchase price by target period calculated for the user who will be the surplus power purchase target by using the distributed power generation device 101 in the future refers to, for example, a user who is considering the introduction of the distributed power generation device 101. It is virtual information such as a simulation result proposed for the information.

  Further, although the present invention is premised on that the gas business entity supplies the raw material gas and purchases the surplus power amount of the distributed power generation device, another business entity that does not belong to the gas business entity (for example, a house maker or a fuel). It is also possible to modify and apply it when a surplus power is purchased by a battery manufacturer or the like. In this case, the different business operator may set the standard purchase unit price so that the profit of the user is secured (that is, the first condition is satisfied), and the specific profit of the different business operator is also included. The basic purchase unit price may be set so as to be ensured (that is, in addition to the first condition, another condition corresponding to the second condition in the gas utility is also satisfied). Here, as the specific profit of another business operator, a profit of promoting a house purchase by a house maker, a profit of promoting a fuel cell purchase by a fuel cell maker, and the like are assumed.

  The power demand forecasting system of the present invention is the surplus power amount of the distributed power generation device in which the distributed power generation device of the surplus power purchase target that consumes the raw material gas supplied from the gas company to generate power flows backward to the commercial grid. , A surplus power purchase price determination system that determines a purchase price of the surplus power amount, and a surplus power purchase unit price that determines a purchase unit price of the surplus power amount when the gas utility purchases from the user of the distributed power generation device. The determination system and the reference purchase unit price for determining the purchase unit price of the surplus power amount can be used for the reference purchase unit price setting system that sets common to all the users.

10: Surplus power purchase price determination system 11: Purchased unit price calculation unit (surplus power purchase unit price determination system)
12: Purchase price calculation unit 20: Database 30: Storage unit 40: Database 50: Standard purchase unit price setting system (standard purchase unit price setting unit)
51: Unit power generation cost calculation unit 52: Condition confirmation unit 100: User 101: Distributed power generation device 102: Indoor wiring 103: Power load 104: Heat load 105: Power meter 200: Commercial system 300: Server

Claims (20)

Excess power generated by consuming the raw material gas supplied from the gas utility.The distributed power generation equipment to be purchased reversely flows the excess power of the distributed power generation equipment to the commercial grid. In the case of purchasing from a user of a power generation device, a surplus power purchase price determination system for determining a purchase price of the surplus power amount,
A value of a predetermined raw material price or a value corresponding to the raw material price, which is a factor of the price fluctuation of the raw material gas, at a predetermined time point or a predetermined period prior to the purchase target period is accepted as a first input value, and the purchase preparative period by purchase unit price is the unit price, based on the reference purchase unit price first has a positive correlation with the change in the input value changes monotonically or stepwise, to all of the user Commonly, a purchase unit price calculation unit that calculates according to the first input value for each purchase target period,
The purchase unit price for each target period is set as the second input value of the cumulative surplus power amount for each user in the purchase target period of the surplus power measured by a power meter capable of individually measuring the surplus power of the distributed power generation device. A purchase price calculation unit that receives as a third input value, calculates a purchase price for each target period in the purchase target period for each user based on the second input value and the third input value, and stores the purchase price in a storage device. The reference purchase unit price is an estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the surplus electricity amount, in which the reference purchase unit price is determined for each of the users for any of the first input values within a predetermined fluctuation range. The first condition to exceed, and the estimated profit and loss unit price obtained by subtracting the standard purchase unit price from the wholesale unit price of reverse flow purchase electric power, and the gas business expected to increase due to an increase in the consumption amount of the raw material gas per unit amount of the surplus electricity amount. A surplus electricity purchase price determination system characterized by being set so as to satisfy both of the second conditions in which the total amount of increase in body profit is a positive value.   The first user characteristic information regarding the energy load of each user, the operating characteristic of the distributed power generation device to be used, and the applied gas charge is accepted as an input, and the first input value of the first input value is calculated based on the first user characteristic information. Criteria for commonly setting the standard purchase unit price for all the users so as to satisfy both the first condition and the second condition for each of the users within the predetermined fluctuation range. The surplus electricity purchase price determination system according to claim 1, further comprising a purchase unit price setting unit.   The standard purchase unit price setting unit, for each of the users, respectively calculates an estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the surplus power amount for a plurality of different first input values within the predetermined fluctuation range, The first input value is used as an independent variable, and a plurality of sample points each consisting of a pair of the independent variable and the dependent variable having the corresponding estimated value of the unit power generation cost as a dependent variable are derived, and with respect to the distribution of the sample points, Regression analysis is performed to derive a linear regression equation using the first input value as an independent variable and the estimated value of the unit power generation cost as a dependent variable, and further, within the predetermined fluctuation range of the first input value, Increasing the constant term of the linear regression equation so that the value of the dependent variable of the linear regression equation becomes larger than the value of the dependent variable of the sample point where the independent variable is the same, so that the first condition is satisfied. The surplus electricity purchase price determination system according to claim 2, wherein the linear regression equation is modified, and the standard purchase unit price is set using the modified linear regression equation.   For all of the users, the operation control mode of the distributed power generation device allows the generation of the surplus power amount and the first operation control mode in which the power generation amount follows the load so that the surplus power amount does not occur. The surplus electricity purchase price determination system according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein the second operation control mode is set to the second operation control mode. For all of the users, the operation control mode of the distributed power generation device allows the generation of the surplus power amount and the first operation control mode in which the power generation amount follows the load so that the surplus power amount does not occur. Of the second operation control mode to be set to the second operation control mode,
The standard purchase unit price setting unit accepts as input the second user characteristic information regarding the energy load of each user, the operating characteristics of the distributed power generation device to be used, the applied gas charge, and the applied electricity charge, and the given The estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the surplus power amount with respect to the first input value is increased for each user by changing the operation control mode of the distributed generator from the first operation control mode to the second operation control mode. The difference obtained by subtracting the estimated decrease amount of the electricity charge with respect to the electric power consumption amount supplied from the commercial system, which is decreased by the change of the operation control mode, from the estimated increase amount of the gas charge with respect to the consumption amount of the raw material gas, The surplus electricity purchase price determination system according to claim 2 or 3 , further comprising a unit power generation cost calculation unit that calculates by dividing by an estimated value of the surplus electricity amount estimated in advance.   In the second operation control mode, the distributed power generation apparatus is operation-controlled so that the surplus power amount becomes maximum for some or all of the users. The surplus electricity purchase price determination system described in.   The surplus electricity purchase price determination system according to claim 4 or 5, wherein, in the second operation control mode, the distributed power generation device is operated at a rated value for a part or all of the users.   In the second operation control mode, with respect to some or all of the users, the decentralized power generation device sets the reference purchase unit price to the first condition within the predetermined variation range of the first input value. The surplus electricity purchase price determination system according to any one of claims 4 to 6, wherein the system is operated with an operating efficiency that can satisfy both of the second conditions.   The operation control mode of the distributed power generation device is always set to the second operation control mode for a part or all of the users. The surplus electricity purchase price determination system described in.   The first condition is that as the first input value decreases within the predetermined fluctuation range, the unit power generation of the surplus power amount at the same first input value from the reference purchase unit price at a certain first input value. 10. The surplus electricity purchase price according to any one of claims 1 to 9, further comprising a third condition in which the minimum unit price of user profit after deducting the maximum value of the estimated cost is monotonically or gradually increased. Decision system.   Within the predetermined variation range of the first input value, the reference purchase unit price can satisfy both the first condition and the second condition as the distributed power generation device for each of the users. The surplus electricity purchase price determination system according to any one of claims 1 to 10, wherein a predetermined surplus electricity purchase target model capable of highly efficient operation is selected.   The surplus electricity purchase price determination system according to any one of claims 1 to 11, wherein the distributed power generation device is a combined heat and power supply device including a fuel cell using city gas as the raw material gas.   The surplus electricity purchase price determination system according to any one of claims 1 to 12, wherein the distributed power generation device includes a combined heat and power supply device including a solid oxide fuel cell. Excess power generated by consuming the raw material gas supplied from the gas utility.The distributed power generation equipment to be purchased reversely flows the excess power of the distributed power generation equipment to the commercial grid. In the case of purchasing from a user of a power generation device, a surplus power purchase unit price determination system for determining a purchase unit price of the surplus power amount,
A value of a predetermined raw material price or a value corresponding to the raw material price, which is a factor of the price fluctuation of the raw material gas, at a predetermined time point or a predetermined period prior to the purchase target period is accepted as a first input value, and The purchase unit price for each target period, which is the purchase unit price, is based on a reference purchase unit price that has a positive correlation with the change of the first input value and that changes monotonically or stepwise, for all the users. Commonly, a purchase unit price calculation unit that calculates according to the first input value for each purchase target period is provided,
The standard purchase unit price exceeds the estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the surplus power amount, which is determined for each of the users, in the first input value within a predetermined fluctuation range, for each of the users. The first condition, the estimated profit and loss unit price obtained by subtracting the standard purchase unit price from the wholesale unit price of the reverse flow purchase power, and the gas utility expected to increase due to the increase in the consumption amount of the raw material gas per unit amount of the surplus electricity amount. The surplus electricity purchase unit price determination system characterized in that it is set so as to satisfy both of the second conditions in which the total amount of increase in the profit is positive.   The first user characteristic information regarding the energy load of each user, the operating characteristic of the distributed power generation device to be used, and the applied gas charge is accepted as an input, and the first input value of the first input value is calculated based on the first user characteristic information. Criteria for commonly setting the standard purchase unit price for all the users so as to satisfy both the first condition and the second condition for each of the users within the predetermined fluctuation range. The surplus electricity purchase unit price determination system according to claim 14, further comprising a purchase unit price setting unit.   The standard purchase unit price setting unit, for each of the users, respectively calculates an estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the surplus power amount for a plurality of different first input values within the predetermined fluctuation range, The first input value is used as an independent variable, and a plurality of sample points each consisting of a pair of the independent variable and the dependent variable having the corresponding estimated value of the unit power generation cost as a dependent variable are derived, and with respect to the distribution of the sample points, Regression analysis is performed to derive a linear regression equation using the first input value as an independent variable and the estimated value of the unit power generation cost as a dependent variable, and further, within the predetermined fluctuation range of the first input value, Increasing the constant term of the linear regression equation so that the value of the dependent variable of the linear regression equation becomes larger than the value of the dependent variable of the sample point where the independent variable is the same, so that the first condition is satisfied. 16. The surplus power purchase unit price determination system according to claim 15, wherein the linear regression formula is modified, and the standard purchase unit price is set using the modified linear regression formula. For all of the users, the operation control mode of the distributed power generation device allows the generation of the surplus power amount and the first operation control mode in which the power generation amount follows the load so that the surplus power amount does not occur. Of the second operation control mode to be set to the second operation control mode,
The standard purchase unit price setting unit accepts as input the second user characteristic information regarding the energy load of each user, the operating characteristics of the distributed power generation device to be used, the applied gas charge, and the applied electricity charge, and the given The estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the surplus power amount with respect to the first input value is increased for each user by changing the operation control mode of the distributed generator from the first operation control mode to the second operation control mode. The difference obtained by subtracting the estimated decrease amount of the electricity charge with respect to the electric power consumption amount supplied from the commercial system, which is decreased by the change of the operation control mode, from the estimated increase amount of the gas charge with respect to the consumption amount of the raw material gas, 17. The surplus power purchase unit price determination system according to claim 15 or 16 , further comprising a unit power generation cost calculation unit that calculates by dividing by an estimated value of the surplus power amount that is estimated in advance.
Excess electricity generated by consuming the raw material gas supplied from the gas utility. The distributed energy generation equipment subject to purchase reversely flows the excess power of the distributed energy generation equipment into the commercial grid. In the case of purchasing from a user of the power generation device, a standard purchase unit price for determining a purchase unit price of the surplus power amount, a standard purchase unit price setting system for setting common to all the users,
The standard purchase unit price is a predetermined raw material price or a value corresponding to the raw material price that becomes a factor of the price fluctuation of the raw material gas as an independent variable at a predetermined time point or a predetermined period before the purchase target period. Given as a dependent variable that is positively correlated to changes in
The energy load of each user, the operating characteristics of the distributed power generation device to be used, and the first user characteristic information regarding the applied gas charge are accepted as inputs, and based on the first user characteristic information, the predetermined value of the independent variable is determined. A standard purchase unit price setting unit that sets the standard purchase unit price for each of the users within the fluctuation range so as to satisfy both the first condition and the second condition;
The first condition is that, in any of the independent variables within the predetermined fluctuation range, the reference purchase unit price for each of the users exceeds an estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the surplus power amount determined for each user. And
The second condition is an estimated profit and loss unit price obtained by subtracting the standard purchase unit price from the reverse flow purchase power unit price, and the gas utility expected to increase due to an increase in the amount of the raw material gas consumed per unit amount of the surplus power amount. A standard purchase unit price setting system characterized in that the total amount of increase in the profit of is a positive value.   The standard purchase unit price setting unit calculates, for each of the users, an estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the surplus power amount for each of the plurality of different independent variables within the predetermined fluctuation range, and Deriving a plurality of sample points consisting of a pair of the estimated value of the unit power generation cost corresponding to a variable, performing a regression analysis on the distribution of the sample points, and the estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the surplus electricity amount as a dependent variable. Deriving a linear regression equation to further, within the predetermined variation range of the independent variable, the value of the dependent variable of the linear regression equation, the independent variable from the estimated value of the unit generation cost of the same sample point The constant term of the linear regression equation is increased so as to be large, the linear regression equation is modified so as to satisfy the first condition, and the standard purchase unit price is set using the modified linear regression equation. The standard purchase unit price setting system according to claim 18, wherein: For all of the users, the operation control mode of the distributed power generation device allows the generation of the surplus power amount and the first operation control mode in which the power generation amount follows the load so that the surplus power amount does not occur. Of the second operation control mode to be set to the second operation control mode,
The standard purchase unit price setting unit accepts as input the second user characteristic information regarding the energy load of each user, the operating characteristics of the distributed power generation device to be used, the applied gas charge, and the applied electricity charge, and the given The estimated value of the unit power generation cost of the surplus power amount with respect to an independent variable is increased for each user by changing the operation control mode of the distributed generator from the first operation control mode to the second operation control mode. The difference obtained by subtracting the estimated decrease amount of the electricity charge for the electric power consumption amount supplied from the commercial system, which is decreased by the change of the operation control mode, from the estimated increase amount of the gas charge for the consumption amount of the raw gas is preliminarily set for each user. 20. The standard purchase unit price setting system according to claim 18 or 19, further comprising a unit power generation cost calculation unit that calculates by dividing by the estimated value of the estimated surplus power amount.

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