JP6397972B1 - Earthquake prediction device, earthquake prediction map creation device, earthquake prediction method, earthquake prediction map creation method, and program - Google Patents

Abstract

Conventionally, it has been difficult to accurately predict short-term earthquakes. A position information storage unit for storing electronic reference point position information, which is information related to the position of an electronic reference point corresponding to one point and is information about a position at two or more times, and one point A change acquisition unit for acquiring change information related to a change in electronic reference point position information in a predetermined first period, and whether the change indicated by the change information is small enough to satisfy a predetermined change condition When the judging unit and the judging unit judge that the change condition is small enough to satisfy the change condition, an earthquake that is larger than or larger than the predetermined scale occurs in the area including the point within the predetermined second period. Short-term earthquake prediction by utilizing the phenomenon that the change of the electronic reference point position information becomes small immediately before the occurrence of the earthquake by the earthquake prediction device including the prediction result output unit for outputting the prediction result information regarding Accuracy can be performed well. [Selection] Figure 1

Description

  The present invention relates to an earthquake prediction device for predicting an earthquake.

  Conventionally, there has been a system that enables earthquake prediction based on the average fluctuation distance of crustal movement of each electronic reference point (see, for example, Patent Document 1). In this system, the average fluctuation distance of each electronic reference point calculated for each week corresponds to the earthquake information of the earthquake if an earthquake has occurred within the area including that electronic reference point within two weeks from that week. In addition, it is registered in the database. The computer compares the latest calculated average fluctuation distance of each electronic reference point with the data in the database, and if there is an electronic reference point with the same average fluctuation distance, the earthquake information corresponding to the average fluctuation distance of the electronic reference point is obtained. It was output as expected earthquake information.

International Publication WO2015 / 025340

  However, in the above conventional system, even if the average fluctuation distance of a certain electronic reference point matches the data in the database, the earthquake information is not output unless the corresponding earthquake information is registered. Also, in this type of earthquake prediction device that predicts future earthquakes using information on earthquakes that have occurred in the past, a large amount of earthquake information is usually required to improve prediction accuracy. The number of earthquakes above a certain scale is limited.

  Furthermore, even with other types of conventional earthquake prediction devices, it has been difficult to accurately perform short-term earthquake prediction, which is prediction of earthquakes that occur in the very near future, for example, two weeks.

  The earthquake prediction device according to the first aspect of the present invention is information relating to the position of an electronic reference point corresponding to one point, and position information in which electronic reference point position information, which is information relating to positions at two or more times, is stored. A storage unit, a change acquisition unit that acquires change information regarding a change in electronic reference point position information in a predetermined first period at one point, and a change indicated by the change information has a predetermined change condition A determination unit that determines whether or not it is small enough to satisfy, and a predetermined scale in an area including a point within a predetermined second period when the determination unit determines that the change condition is small enough to satisfy the change condition An earthquake prediction apparatus including a prediction result output unit that outputs prediction result information regarding occurrence of the above or larger earthquake.

  With such a configuration, it is possible to accurately perform short-term earthquake prediction using a phenomenon in which the position change of the electronic reference point is reduced immediately before the occurrence of the earthquake.

  The earthquake prediction apparatus according to the second invention is an earthquake prediction apparatus according to the first invention, wherein the first period is between 160 days and 190 days, preferably between 165 days and 185 days. is there.

  With this configuration, short-term earthquake prediction can be performed with high accuracy.

  Moreover, the earthquake prediction apparatus of this 3rd invention is an earthquake prediction apparatus whose 1st period is 175 days with respect to 2nd invention.

  With this configuration, short-term earthquake prediction can be performed with higher accuracy.

  Moreover, the earthquake prediction apparatus of this 4th invention is an earthquake prediction apparatus whose 2nd period is 14 days with respect to any one invention from 1st to 3rd.

  With this configuration, it is possible to accurately predict a short-term earthquake of about two weeks.

  In addition, in the earthquake prediction device according to the fifth aspect of the present invention, for any one of the first to fourth aspects of the invention, the change acquisition unit is the electronic reference point position information of the current day for each date belonging to the first period. And the difference between the previous day's electronic reference point position information, the average value of the difference in the first period, the average value of the difference in the third period longer than the first period, The average value of the difference in the first period is obtained by dividing the average value of the difference in the period by the average value of the difference in the third period, and the change condition is normalized, In this earthquake prediction apparatus, the average value of differences in the first period is equal to or less than a predetermined threshold value.

  With this configuration, short-term earthquake prediction can be performed with high accuracy.

  Moreover, the earthquake prediction apparatus of this 6th invention is an earthquake prediction apparatus whose threshold value is between 0.80 and 1.00 with respect to 5th invention.

  With this configuration, short-term earthquake prediction can be performed with high accuracy.

  Further, in the earthquake prediction device of the seventh invention, in contrast to the sixth invention, the electronic reference point position information includes information on X, Y, Z, latitude, longitude, and height, and the threshold is X , Y, Z, latitude, longitude, and height are earthquake prediction devices that are between 0.90 and 0.93.

  With this configuration, short-term earthquake prediction can be performed with higher accuracy.

  In any one of the fifth to seventh inventions, the third period is preferably between 1 year and 4 years, and may be, for example, 365 days.

  Further, the earthquake prediction device of the eighth aspect of the invention provides a risk level for acquiring risk level information on the risk level of an earthquake at a point, using change information, with respect to any one of the first to seventh aspects of the invention. An acquisition unit is further provided, and the prediction result information is an earthquake prediction device including risk information.

  With this configuration, it is possible to obtain a prediction result indicating an earthquake risk level by accurate short-term earthquake prediction.

  The earthquake prediction map creating apparatus according to the ninth aspect of the invention also includes a map information storage unit that stores a map image that is an image of a map, and map information that includes two or more pieces of point information related to points, and first to eighth points. An earthquake prediction device corresponding to any one of the inventions, wherein the scale is larger than a predetermined scale using one or more prediction result information output from the earthquake prediction device applied to two or more points and map information Alternatively, an earthquake prediction map creating unit that creates an earthquake prediction map having one or more marks on the map image indicating an earthquake occurrence prediction point that is a point where a larger earthquake is predicted to occur, and an earthquake prediction that outputs an earthquake prediction map An earthquake prediction map creation device comprising a map output unit.

  With such a configuration, an earthquake prediction map indicating one or more earthquake occurrence prediction points based on accurate short-term earthquake prediction at two or more points can be obtained.

  The earthquake prediction map creating apparatus according to the tenth aspect of the present invention is the ninth aspect of the invention, wherein the earthquake prediction map creating unit further has one or more earthquake occurrence prediction areas including an earthquake occurrence prediction point on the map image. An earthquake prediction map creation device for creating an earthquake prediction map.

  With this configuration, an earthquake prediction map that also shows one or more earthquake occurrence prediction areas including an earthquake occurrence prediction point can be obtained.

  The earthquake prediction map creating apparatus according to the eleventh aspect of the invention relates to the tenth aspect of the invention, wherein the earthquake prediction map creating unit is arranged for two or more earthquake occurrence prediction points that are close to each other so as to satisfy a predetermined condition. Is an earthquake prediction map creation device for creating an earthquake prediction map using one region including two or more earthquake occurrence prediction points as an earthquake occurrence prediction region.

  With this configuration, it is possible to integrate two or more earthquake occurrence prediction areas that overlap most.

  In addition, the earthquake prediction map creating apparatus according to the twelfth aspect of the invention provides the earthquake prediction map creating unit that outputs one or more pieces of prediction result information with respect to any one of the ninth to eleventh inventions. Each time you create an earthquake prediction map using one or more prediction result information, the earthquake prediction map output unit creates an earthquake prediction map that sends the earthquake prediction map created by the earthquake prediction map creation unit to one or more terminals Device.

  With this configuration, the user of the terminal can be notified of the earthquake prediction map based on the latest prediction result.

  According to the present invention, short-term earthquake prediction can be performed with high accuracy.

Block diagram of an earthquake prediction system in an embodiment Flow chart explaining operation of the earthquake prediction device Flow chart explaining the operation of the earthquake prediction map creation device Data structure diagram of the same group information The figure which showed the outline of the graph regarding the change of the same Y value The figure which showed the outline of the histogram which shows frequency distribution of the same (DELTA) latitude na Diagram explaining how to create the earthquake prediction map The figure which shows the example of a display of the earthquake prediction map External view of the computer system The figure which shows an example of an internal structure of the computer system

  Hereinafter, embodiments of an earthquake prediction apparatus and the like will be described with reference to the drawings. In addition, since the component which attached | subjected the same code | symbol in embodiment performs the same operation | movement, description may be abbreviate | omitted again.

  In this embodiment, an earthquake prediction apparatus capable of accurately performing short-term earthquake prediction using a phenomenon in which the position change of the electronic reference point becomes small immediately before the occurrence of an earthquake will be described.

  The prediction target may be, for example, an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 5 or more or a larger scale. Immediately before the occurrence of an earthquake may be, for example, a period of about half a year before the occurrence of an earthquake. Short-term earthquake prediction is to predict an earthquake that will occur in the very near future, for example, between 5 and 20 days for two weeks. These are examples, and do not limit the scale of the earthquake, the period during which the position change is small, the prediction period, or the like.

  The electronic reference point is an electronic device installed at each of two or more points to be subjected to positioning by a GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) such as GPS. The electronic reference point is, for example, an electronic reference point managed by the Geographical Survey Institute, and may be a GNSS continuous observation point installed at about 1300 points nationwide. In addition, the positioning method by GNSS is well-known, and detailed description is abbreviate | omitted.

  The electronic reference point includes, for example, a GPS receiver and a communication device. The GPS receiver receives signals from GPS satellites and acquires position information. The position information is information regarding the position. The position information is usually information indicating the current position, but may be information indicating a change in position, information indicating a current position or a history of position change, or any information regarding the position.

  The position information acquired by the electronic reference point is usually information indicating the current position of the electronic reference point. Hereinafter, such position information may be referred to as electronic reference point position information. The electronic reference point, for example, periodically receives a signal from a GPS satellite using a GPS receiver or the like, and acquires electronic reference point position information at two or more times.

  The electronic reference point transmits the electronic reference point position information acquired in this way to the earthquake prediction device or another server (for example, a server of the Geospatial Information Authority of Japan) using a communication device in combination with the time information. Time information is information indicating time. The time information paired with the electronic reference point position information is usually information indicating the current time when the electronic reference point acquires the electronic reference point position information. Note that the time information may include, for example, year, month, day, hour, minute, and second, or only date. Hereinafter, such time information may be simply referred to as time information. The time information is acquired from, for example, a built-in clock of the GPS receiver, an NTP server, or the like, but the time information included in the signal from the GPS satellite may be used, and the acquisition destination is not limited.

  The earthquake to be predicted may be, for example, a plate-type earthquake that occurs at the boundary between plates or a fault-type earthquake that occurs at a fault in the plate. A plate-type earthquake, for example, when the sea side plate sinks under the land side plate at the boundary between the land side plate and the sea side plate, the end of the land side plate is the sea side. When the displacement of the plate on the land side exceeds the limit, the displaced end jumps in the direction opposite to the previous travel direction. It can be said that it is an earthquake that occurs. In a fault-type earthquake, for example, as a result of the plate on the land side and the plate on the sea side pressing, strain accumulates in each plate, and in either plate, the strain of the rock mass that sandwiches the fault exceeds the limit, It can be said that this is an earthquake caused by a fault slip.

  In the case of a plate-type earthquake, the phenomenon that the position change of the electronic reference point becomes small immediately before the occurrence of the earthquake is, for example, the end of the land-side plate that has moved in the direction of the sinking of the sea-side plate jumps up in the opposite direction. Immediately before, it may be explained by a movement that decelerates as it approaches the jump point. In the case of a fault-type earthquake, for example, just before the earthquake occurred on a fault in one of the plates, the strain accumulated in the rock mass that sandwiched the fault becomes maximum, and the movement of the rock mass near the fault is slowed down. May be. However, the causes of such phenomena are diverse and do not limit the type or cause of the earthquake.

  The inventor of the present application has found that a phenomenon in which the position change of the electronic reference point is reduced immediately before the occurrence of the earthquake, which is also explained by the mechanism described above, can be used for short-term earthquake prediction. Furthermore, the inventor has developed an earthquake prediction apparatus and the like that can perform short-term earthquake prediction with high accuracy only by processing the electronic reference point position information.

  FIG. 1 is a block diagram of the earthquake prediction system in the present embodiment. This earthquake prediction system includes an earthquake prediction device 1, an earthquake prediction map creation device 2, and one or more terminals 3. The earthquake prediction device 1 is communicably connected to the earthquake prediction map creation device 2 and one or more terminals 3 via a network such as a LAN or the Internet, a wireless or wired communication line, and the like. The earthquake prediction map creation device 2 is also connected to each of the one or more terminals 3 via a network or the like.

  The earthquake prediction device 1 and the earthquake prediction map creation device 2 are, for example, servers of organizations or companies that operate this earthquake prediction system, but may be cloud servers, regardless of the type or location.

  The terminal 3 is, for example, a terminal of an administrative institution or a local public organization, a terminal of various facilities such as a power plant or a factory, etc., but may be a home terminal, and its location is not limited. The terminal is, for example, a PC, but may be a portable terminal, and the type is not limited. In addition, although a portable terminal is a notebook PC, a tablet terminal, a smart phone, a mobile phone etc., for example, if it is a portable terminal, the kind will not ask | require.

  However, the earthquake prediction device 1 and the earthquake prediction map creation device 2 may be realized by a single server. That is, for example, the earthquake prediction device 1 may have the function of the earthquake prediction map creation device 2, or the earthquake prediction map creation device 2 may have the function of the earthquake prediction device 1.

  Moreover, the earthquake prediction apparatus 1 may be a stand-alone. The stand-alone earthquake prediction device 1 can be realized by a single PC, for example. Similarly, the earthquake prediction device 1 having an earthquake prediction map creation function or the earthquake prediction map creation device 2 having an earthquake prediction function may be stand-alone and can be realized by one PC.

  In this embodiment, an earthquake prediction system including an earthquake prediction device 1, an earthquake prediction map creation device 2, and one or more terminals 3 will be described. In actual operation, for example, a stand-alone earthquake prediction device. 1 and the stand-alone earthquake prediction map creation device 2 are assumed to be more general, so the operation in such a case will be described in a timely manner. However, it goes without saying that system or stand-alone is not an essential difference of the present invention.

  Furthermore, although the earthquake prediction apparatus 1 is normally applied to two or more points, it may be applied to one point. The number of points is, for example, several tens or more. In particular, when the prediction range of the earthquake prediction device 1 is all over Japan, it is preferable that the number is about several hundred to several hundreds. When using an electronic reference point managed by the Geographical Survey Institute, the number of points is about 1300.

  The earthquake prediction device 1 includes a storage unit 11, a reception unit 12, a processing unit 13, and an output unit 14. The storage unit 11 includes a position information storage unit 111. The position information storage unit 111 includes a change acquisition unit 131. The processing unit 13 includes a determination unit 132 and a risk level acquisition unit 133. The output unit 14 includes a prediction result output unit 141.

  The earthquake prediction map creation device 2 includes a map information storage unit 21, an earthquake prediction map creation unit 22, and an earthquake prediction map output unit 23.

  The map information storage unit 21, the earthquake prediction map creation unit 22, and the earthquake prediction map output unit 23 may be included in the storage unit 11, the processing unit 13, and the output unit 14 that constitute the earthquake prediction device 1, respectively. Good.

  The storage part 11 which comprises the earthquake prediction apparatus 1 can store various information. The various information is, for example, electronic reference point position information described later. Other information will be explained in a timely manner.

  The position information storage unit 111 stores two or more electronic reference point position information. The electronic reference point position information is information regarding the position of the electronic reference point corresponding to one point, and is information regarding the position at one time. The two or more electronic reference point position information may be, for example, electronic reference point position information at two or more times acquired by the electronic reference point installed at one point as described above. Alternatively, the two or more electronic reference point position information may be, for example, electronic reference point position information at two or more times acquired by electronic reference points installed at two or more points.

  In the position information storage unit 111, for example, two or more sets of time information and electronic reference point position information (hereinafter sometimes referred to as set information) are stored in association with the point identifier. . A point identifier is information for identifying a point. The point identifier is, for example, an ID or a place name, but may be any information as long as it can identify the point.

  However, in the position information storage unit 111, for example, two or more pieces of electronic reference point position information may be stored in association with the point identifier. In such a case, two or more electronic reference point position information is stored in the position information storage unit 111 in an order corresponding to the order of acquisition.

  The number of group information stored in the position information storage unit 111 in association with one point identifier is usually the same as the number of points described above.

  In addition, in the position information storage unit 111, a set of set information for a period (for example, 21 years) from the start date of observation by the electronic reference point to the present is stored in advance in association with the point identifier. Is preferred.

  Specifically, as the electronic reference point position information, for example, data provided by the Geographical Survey Institute, and it is preferable to use electronic reference point data acquired by electronic reference points corresponding to about 1300 points nationwide. is there. The electronic reference point data has six values of X, Y, Z, latitude, longitude, and height. Of these, the ternary set (X, Y, Z) is coordinate data according to an orthogonal coordinate system with the center of the earth as the origin. For example, the height may be an ellipsoidal height from a reference ellipsoid “GRS80 ellipsoid” adopted by Japan.

  The receiving unit 12 receives various types of information. The various information includes, for example, various instructions, electronic reference point position information, and the like. Various instructions will be explained in a timely manner. In general, reception means reception of information input from an input device such as a keyboard, mouse, or touch panel, reception of information transmitted via a network or communication line, or reading from a recording medium such as a disk or semiconductor memory. It is a concept that includes receiving information.

  The receiving unit 12 normally receives information such as various instructions from the terminal 3 or an external server (not shown). For example, the receiving unit 12 may receive the information via an input device such as a keyboard or record a disc or the like. You may read from a medium.

  For example, the reception unit 12 receives about 1300 pieces of pair information, which is a pair of electronic reference point data including the above-described six values and time information, from a server of the Geospatial Information Authority of Japan, with a point identifier every day. You may receive. It is preferable that the processing unit 13 to be described later accumulates about 1300 pieces of group information received every day in this manner in the position information storage unit 111 in association with the point identifier.

  In addition, the server of the Geographical Survey Institute stores a set of two or more pieces of group information acquired in the past (hereinafter sometimes referred to as group information group) in combination with the point identifier. For example, a set of pairs of point identifiers and group information groups (for example, about 1300 pairs or a part thereof) can be collectively received from the server of the Geographical Survey Institute. The group information group may be, for example, information for the latest 365 days including the current day, information on a specific year such as 2016, or two specific information such as January 1, 2013 to April 13, 2016. Information between dates may be used, and the period is not limited.

  The processing unit 13 performs various processes. The various processes are, for example, processes such as a change acquisition unit 131, a determination unit 132, and a risk level acquisition unit 133 described below. Note that the various types of processing may include, for example, processing of an earthquake prediction map creation unit 22 described later. Other processes will be described in a timely manner.

  The change acquisition unit 131 acquires change information. The change information is information relating to a change in the electronic reference point position information in a predetermined first period at one point.

  The first period may be between 160 days and 190 days, for example. For example, the first period is preferably between 165 days and 185 days, and more preferably 175 days. In the following examples, the first period is usually described as 175 days.

  The change is usually an absolute value of a difference between the previous day value and the current day value. The current day is one day belonging to one period, and the previous day is the day before the one day. However, the change may be, for example, a difference corresponding to a period of two days or more, such as a difference between the previous day value and the current day value, and the interval between two days for calculating the difference does not matter. The value of a specific day such as the previous day or the current day may be an average value of two or more consecutive days including the specific day, for example. Moreover, when comparing the difference which belongs to a certain period (for example, 1st period etc.) and the difference which belongs to another period (for example, 3rd period etc.), it cannot be overemphasized that it is a difference corresponding to the same space | interval.

  In the following description, the term “difference” usually means a change between the value of one day and the value of the previous day regardless of the period such as the first period or the third period.

  The change in the electronic reference point position information may be, for example, a change in each of the six values (X, Y, Z, latitude, longitude, and height).

  For example, the change acquisition unit 131 uses a set information group that is stored in the position information storage unit 111 in association with a point identifier for identifying a single point. Change information related to changes in the electronic reference point position information over a period is acquired.

  Specifically, the change acquisition unit 131 first uses the set information group for each date D belonging to the first period, and the electronic reference point position information X (D) on the current day and the electronic reference point position information X on the previous day. The difference ΔX (D) with (D-1) may be acquired by the following equation 1, for example.

  ΔX (D) = | X (D) −X (D−1) |

  The above equation 1 is an equation related to the X value. By replacing “X” with “Y”, “Z”, “latitude”, “longitude”, or “height”, the other five values are obtained. Is also applicable. This also applies to formulas 2 to 5 described later.

  In addition, the change acquisition unit 131 calculates the average a and standard deviation σ for 365 days for the six values before performing the calculations according to the above formulas 1 to 5 and the like, and abnormally exceeds the value of a + (σ × 3). It is preferable to perform processing to exclude as a value. Furthermore, it is more preferable that the change acquisition unit 131 predicts a normal value from, for example, one or more values in the vicinity of the excluded abnormal value and performs interpolation. As a result, it is possible to reduce the influence of phenomena that are not related to measurement noise or essence.

  Next, the change acquisition unit 131 acquires the average value ΔXa (D) of the difference in the first period (175 days) by using the 175 differences acquired by the above equation 1, using the following equation 2. May be.

  ΔXa (D) = [ΔX (D-174) +... + ΔX (D)] / 175 [Equation 2]

  The average value ΔXa (D) when the first period is M days (M is usually an integer of 160 to 190, but may be 159 or an integer of 191 or more) is, for example, In Expression 2, it may be acquired by an expression in which “175” is replaced with “M” (hereinafter, may be referred to as General Expression 2a).

  Further, the difference ΔX (D) or the average difference ΔXa (D) in the first period is, for example, dimensionless by using the average value of the difference group in the third period longer than the first period. It is preferable to normalize to a real value based on the quantity “1”. The third period is preferably, for example, twice or more than the first period. Specifically, the third period is, for example, between 1 year and 4 years, and in particular may be 365 days. In the following example, the third period is described as 365 days.

  Therefore, the change acquisition unit 131 acquires the average value ΔXm (D) of the difference group in the third period (365 days) using, for example, the following three expressions using 365 differences acquired by the above expression 1. May be.

  ΔXm (D) = [ΔX (D-364) +... + ΔX (D)] / 365.

  When the third period is N days (N may be, for example, 730 days corresponding to 2 years, 1095 days corresponding to 3 years, or 1461 days corresponding to 4 years) The average value ΔXm (D) of the difference group in the third period is, for example, an expression in which “364” is replaced with “(N−1)” and “365” is replaced with “N” in the above Expression 3. (Hereinafter, it may be described as general formula 3a).

  Then, the change acquisition unit 131 may acquire the normalized difference ΔXn (D) according to the following equation 4 using, for example, ΔXm (D) acquired according to the above equation 3 or the general equation 3a.

  ΔXn (D) = | X (D) −X (D−1) | / ΔXm (D) [Equation 4]

  In addition, the change acquisition unit 131 uses the normalized difference group acquired by, for example, the above equation 4 to obtain the “normalized average value ΔXna (D) of the difference in the first period”. You may acquire by Formula 5.

  ΔXna (D) = [ΔXn (D-174) +... + ΔXn (D)] / 175 (Equation 5)

  In the above formula 5, the formula in which “174” is replaced with “M−1” may be the general formula 5a when the first period is M days.

  When the number of points is two or more, the change acquisition unit 131 executes change acquisition processing for acquiring change information in this way for each of the two or more points, and determines the acquired change information as a pair with the point identifier. It is preferable to hand over the part 132.

  More specifically, the acquisition change acquisition unit 131 selects one spot identifier from two or more spot identifiers, and the electronic reference associated with the time information belonging to the first period from the group information group corresponding to the spot identifier. An electronic reference point position information group, which is a set of point position information, is extracted, and using the electronic reference point position information group, change information relating to changes in the electronic reference point position information in the first period is acquired, and the acquired change The process of handing over information to the determination unit 132 in pairs with point identifiers may be repeated until all two or more point identifiers have been selected.

  In addition, the change acquisition unit 131 may execute change acquisition processing in response to, for example, the reception unit 12 receiving an earthquake prediction instruction that is an instruction to make an earthquake prediction, or the reception unit 12 The change acquisition process may be executed in response to the reception of the new group information group or the accumulation of the received new group information in the position information storage unit 111, and the acquisition timing does not matter.

  The determination unit 132 determines whether the change indicated by the change information acquired by the change acquisition unit 131 is small enough to satisfy a predetermined change condition. The change is, for example, a difference from an average value obtained by averaging the absolute values of the differences, but may be a ratio with the average value. Alternatively, the change may be, for example, a difference or a ratio with the median, or a difference or a ratio with a representative value other than the median (for example, the mode value).

  The change indicated by the change information may be, for example, the average value ΔXa (D) of the difference in the first period acquired by the above formula 1, the above formula 2 or the general formula 2a. .

  However, the change indicated by the change information is, for example, the following five formulas: Formula 1, Formula 2, Formula 3 or its general formula 3a, Formula 4 and Formula 5 or its general formula 5a. The obtained “normalized average value ΔXna (D) of the difference in the first period” means that the periodic natural phenomenon that occurs on the earth affects the electronic reference point position information by normalization. (For example, it is preferable in that the electronic reference point position information periodically changes due to changes in temperature, rainfall, etc. throughout the four seasons). In addition, the technique which normalizes in order to suppress the influence from the natural phenomenon which has periodicity is well-known, and detailed description is abbreviate | omitted.

  The change condition may be, for example, “the average difference ΔXa (D) in the first period is equal to or smaller than a predetermined threshold”. In this case, for example, a different threshold value may be used depending on the point, or the threshold value may be changed between the time when the crustal movement is active and the time when the crustal movement is not active at the same point.

  Alternatively, the change condition may be, for example, “normalized average value ΔXna (D) of the difference in the first period is equal to or less than a threshold value”. In this case, since the change information is normalized, the width of the change in the threshold depending on the point and the time becomes small. The specific threshold may be, for example, between 0.80 and 1.00, and is preferably a value between 0.85 and 0.95, for example. More preferably, the threshold value is a value between 0.90 and 0.93, particularly for X, Y, Z, latitude, longitude, and height.

  Alternatively, instead of using a static threshold value, the determination unit 132 uses, for example, past earthquake information and a set information group stored in the position information storage unit 111 in association with a point identifier, An optimal threshold value for the point identifier may be predicted, and the determination may be performed using the predicted threshold value.

  In such a case, for example, one or more earthquake forecasts are stored in the storage unit 11. Earthquake information is information relating to earthquakes. It is preferable that the stored earthquake information is information relating to earthquakes of a predetermined magnitude or larger. As the predetermined scale, for example, seismic intensity 5 or seismic intensity 6 is suitable, but seismic intensity 5 or less, seismic intensity 6 or seismic intensity 7 may be used. As long as the predetermined scale is usually 5 or less, the seismic intensity value is not limited.

  The earthquake information includes, for example, occurrence time information and epicenter position information. The occurrence time information is time information indicating the time when the earthquake occurred. The epicenter position information is position information indicating the position of the epicenter of the earthquake.

  For example, the determination unit 132 may perform the following processing on one or more pieces of earthquake information stored in the storage unit 11. That is, the determination unit 132 uses the group information group stored in the position information storage unit 111 in association with the point identifier corresponding to the hypocenter position information included in the earthquake information, to determine the occurrence time information included in the earthquake information. The electronic reference point position information group from 175 days to 1 day before the date shown is acquired as the electronic reference point position information group in the first period immediately before the occurrence of the earthquake, and for comparison with this, An electronic reference point position information group for one period is also acquired. The normal first period may be, for example, 175 days from 350 days to 176 days before the date indicated by the occurrence time information, or any first period other than the first period immediately before the occurrence of the earthquake. It may be a period.

  The determination unit 132 acquires, for example, the frequency distribution of change information in the first period immediately before the occurrence of the earthquake and the frequency distribution of change information in the first period of normal time, and uses the two acquired frequency distributions. The threshold may be determined. Specifically, the determination unit 132 may acquire a representative value in each of the two frequency distributions, and may use a value between the acquired two representative values (for example, an average value or a value in the vicinity thereof) as a threshold value. The representative value may be, for example, a mode value, a median value, or an average value.

  Alternatively, the determination unit 132 may determine the threshold value thus determined as an initial value, and acquire the accuracy rate of the prediction result information output by the prediction result output unit 141 described later with respect to the determination result. Thereafter, the determination unit 132 repeats the same process while changing the threshold value, accumulates the correct answer rate of the prediction result information, and determines the threshold value at which the correct answer rate is maximized from the earthquake information and the corresponding group information group. You may acquire as an optimal threshold value estimated.

  The determination unit 132 can make an accurate determination for each of two or more points by using the threshold thus predicted.

  When the number of points is two or more, the determination unit 132 makes a determination for each of the two or more points using the change information acquired by the change acquisition unit 131, and uses the determination result information indicating the determination result as the point information. It is preferable that the identifier is paired with the prediction result output unit 141 and the risk level acquisition unit 133.

  Further, the above has described the X value among the above six values, but the same applies to the other five values. In other words, the change condition may be, for example, “normalized average value of differences in the first period is equal to or smaller than a predetermined threshold value”. The “normalized average value of the difference in the first period” in the change condition is specifically, for example, the normalized average value ΔXna (D) of the difference in the X value in the first period. The same ΔYna (D), ΔZna (D), Δlatitude na (D), Δlongitude na (D), or Δheight na (D) may be used.

  Further, it is more preferable that the change condition is “normalized, at least one of the average values of the six values in the first period is equal to or smaller than a predetermined threshold”. In the following examples, when simply referred to as a change condition, it usually means such a change condition.

  Furthermore, the change condition is, for example, “when the electronic reference point position information includes N parameters (N is a natural number), the normalized average value of differences for each of the N parameters in the first period is normalized. At least one of them may be generalized as “below or smaller than a predetermined threshold”.

  The risk level acquisition unit 133 uses the change information acquired by the change acquisition unit 131 to acquire risk level information related to the risk level of an earthquake at one or more points. The risk information may be change information, for example. Alternatively, the change acquisition unit 131 holds a set of pairs of a numerical range and a risk level, and it is preferable to acquire risk level information indicating a risk level corresponding to the numerical range to which the change information belongs.

  The set of pairs of the numerical range and the risk level is, for example, a pair of the numerical range “0 or more and less than 0.2” and the risk level “1”, or a numerical range “0.2 or more and less than 0.4”. Pair with risk “2”, numerical range “0.4 or more and less than 0.6” and risk “3”, numerical range “0.6 or more and less than 0.8” and risk “4” And a pair of numerical value range “0.8 or more and 1 or less” and risk “5”.

  Alternatively, the risk level acquisition unit 133 holds, for example, an increase function using the change information as a parameter, and acquires the risk level information by substituting the change information acquired by the change acquisition unit 131 into the increase function. May be.

  For example, when the determination unit 132 determines that the change indicated by the change information acquired by the change acquisition unit 131 is small enough to satisfy the change condition, the risk level acquisition unit 133 uses the change information to obtain two or more points. It is preferable to acquire risk level information regarding the risk level of earthquakes in Japan. However, the risk level acquisition unit 133 may acquire the risk level information regardless of the determination result of the determination unit 132.

  When the number of points is two or more, the risk level acquisition unit 133 acquires risk level information using the determination result information acquired by the determination unit 132 for each of the two or more points. It is preferable to hand over to the prediction result output unit 141 in pairs with the point identifier.

  The output unit 14 outputs various information. The various information is, for example, prediction result information. Other information will be explained in a timely manner. In general, output includes, for example, display on a display, sound output from a speaker, transmission to another device, printout by a printer, accumulation in a recording medium, other blocks and other programs, other devices, etc. This is a concept that includes delivery of processing results to

  The output unit 14 normally transmits various types of information to the earthquake prediction map creation apparatus 2 or the terminal 3, but may output the information via an output device such as a display. The output via the output device is usually the output within the earthquake prediction device 1, but it may be output via an external display. Alternatively, the earthquake prediction device 1 has an earthquake prediction map creation function. For example, the storage unit 11 includes a map information storage unit 21, the processing unit 13 includes an earthquake prediction map creation unit 22, and an earthquake prediction map output unit. 23, the prediction result output unit 141 may deliver the prediction result information to the earthquake prediction map creation unit 22.

  For example, the prediction result output unit 141 outputs prediction result information when the determination unit 132 determines that the change condition is small enough to satisfy the change condition as described above. The prediction result information is information indicating a prediction result related to an earthquake. The prediction result information may be, for example, information that is predicted to cause an earthquake of a magnitude greater than or greater than the predetermined magnitude as described above in an area including the point within a predetermined second period. Good. For example, 14 days is suitable for the second period, but it may be between 5 and 20 days. The area may be, for example, a rectangular area corresponding to a range of ± 2.5 degrees in the latitude direction and ± 2.5 degrees in the longitude direction with respect to the point. Or the area | region may be a circular area | region corresponding to the range of radius 2.5 degree | times with respect to the said point, for example. Note that the width in the longitude direction and the width in the latitude direction may not be the same. That is, the rectangular area may be a square area or a rectangular area. Further, the circular area may include, for example, an elliptical shape. Further, the size and shape of the region are not limited.

  Moreover, the prediction result information is, for example, a character such as “It is predicted that an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 5 or more or greater will occur within a range of 5 degrees × 5 degrees centered on XX city within 14 days”. It may be information or voice information, or may be image data of an earthquake prediction map having such a range on a map image. Alternatively, the prediction result information may be, for example, risk information acquired by the risk acquisition unit 133, or one or more types of information such as character information, audio information, or image information as described above, risk information, May be included. The risk level information may also include one or more types of data among characters, sounds, and images. The sound in this case may be an alarm sound such as a buzzer, and the image may be a background color change or blinking, for example. For example, it is preferable that the alarm sound has a volume or tone corresponding to the degree of danger (for example, a low volume chime sound when the degree of danger is low, or a high volume buzzer sound when the degree of danger is high). The background image also has, for example, a color or blinking cycle according to the risk level (for example, blue when the risk level is low, red when the risk level is high, and red when the risk level is high) It is preferable that the indicator blinks.

  When the number of points is two or more, the prediction result output unit 141 uses the determination result information acquired by the determination unit 132 and the risk information acquired by the risk level acquisition unit 133 for each of the two or more points. The prediction result information is acquired, and the acquired prediction result information is stored in association with the point identifier. Then, when the prediction result output unit 141 holds the one or more prediction result information after the processing is completed for all two or more points, the one or more prediction result information is stored in the earthquake prediction map creating apparatus. Sending to 2 is preferred. However, every time the prediction result output unit 141 acquires one prediction result information, the prediction result information may be transmitted.

  One or two or more pieces of map information are stored in the map information storage unit 21 constituting the earthquake prediction map creating apparatus 2. Map information is information about a map. The map is, for example, a national map, a local map of Kanto, Kyushu, or the like. The map information includes, for example, a map image and two or more pieces of point information. A map image is image data of a map. The image data is, for example, raster format image data such as a bitmap or JPEG, but may be vector format image data. The point information is information regarding the point. The point information includes a point identifier, position information, and the like.

  In the present embodiment, the earthquake prediction map creation unit 22 is usually one or more prediction result information output by the earthquake prediction device 1 applied to two or more points, and a map stored in the map information storage unit 21. An earthquake prediction map is created using the information. However, the earthquake prediction map creation unit 22 may create the earthquake prediction map using any map information as long as one or two or more earthquake occurrence prediction points are specified. The earthquake prediction map creation unit 22 normally receives the prediction result information transmitted from the earthquake prediction device 1, but may read out the prediction result information recorded on the recording medium, for example, or input from a keyboard or the like You may receive the prediction result information input via the device. In the case of a stand-alone earthquake prediction map creation apparatus, reception via an input device is normal.

  The earthquake prediction map is map image data that describes information related to earthquake prediction. The information relating to the earthquake here is, in particular, an image such as a mark indicating a point where an earthquake is predicted to occur in the future, or an area including such a point. However, the earthquake prediction map may also describe information related to earthquakes that have occurred in the past (for example, an image showing the epicenter position, seismic intensity distribution, etc.).

  The earthquake prediction map creation unit 22 has, for example, one or more marks indicating an earthquake occurrence prediction point on a map image included in one map information of one or more pieces of map information stored in the map information storage unit 21. An earthquake prediction map may be created. An earthquake prediction point is a point where an earthquake of a magnitude greater than or greater than a predetermined magnitude is predicted to occur. As previously described, the predetermined scale may be, for example, a seismic intensity of 5 strong, a seismic intensity of 6 weak, or the like. The mark may be, for example, a circle mark or a triangle mark. It is preferable that the mark is drawn in a mode (for example, color, size, etc.) corresponding to the degree of risk.

  The earthquake prediction map creation unit 22 may draw one or more marks using, for example, a color corresponding to the risk level using the risk level information included in the prediction result information from the earthquake prediction device 1. Drawing with a color corresponding to the degree of danger may be, for example, coloring in a descending order of the degree of danger, such as red, yellow, and blue, or dark red, slightly dark red, or slightly light It is also possible to change the shade of one color such as red, light red, and white. However, the mark may be drawn in any manner as long as the danger level can be visually recognized.

  It is preferable that the earthquake prediction map creation unit 22 uses the prediction result information from the earthquake prediction device 1 to create an earthquake prediction map that further includes one or more earthquake occurrence prediction areas including an earthquake occurrence prediction point on a map image. It is. The earthquake occurrence prediction area is an area including a point where an earthquake of a magnitude greater than or larger than a predetermined magnitude is predicted to occur within a predetermined second period. As described above, the region may be, for example, a rectangular region corresponding to a range of ± 2.5 degrees in the latitude direction and ± 2.5 degrees in the longitude direction with respect to the predicted earthquake occurrence point. However, the size and shape of the earthquake occurrence prediction area are not limited.

  However, for two or more earthquake occurrence prediction points that are close to each other so as to satisfy a predetermined condition, the earthquake prediction map creation unit 22 sets one region including the two or more earthquake occurrence prediction points as an earthquake occurrence prediction region. It is preferable to create an earthquake prediction map. Specifically, for example, the earthquake prediction map creation unit 22 obtains a rectangle whose outline passes through the two or more earthquake occurrence prediction points, and ± 2.5 degrees in the latitude direction and ± 2.5 degrees in the longitude direction. An area corresponding to the expanded range of 2.5 degrees may be acquired as an earthquake occurrence prediction area, and an earthquake prediction map having the acquired earthquake occurrence prediction area on the map may be created.

  For example, every time the earthquake prediction device 1 outputs one or more pieces of prediction result information, the earthquake prediction map creation unit 22 may create an earthquake prediction map using the prediction result information. However, creating the earthquake prediction map may include, for example, updating the previously created earthquake prediction map.

  Specifically, the earthquake prediction map creation unit 22, for example, in response to receiving the first prediction result information from the earthquake prediction device 1, the first prediction result information and the map stored in the map information storage unit 21. After that, every time new prediction result information is obtained from the earthquake prediction device 1, a new mark is added to the earthquake prediction map using the new prediction result information. Or the earthquake occurrence prediction area may be enlarged or reduced, and the update target and mode are not limited.

  Alternatively, the earthquake prediction map creation unit 22 holds the prediction result information received from the earthquake prediction device 1 in an internal memory or the like, and has received an earthquake prediction map creation instruction that is an instruction to create an earthquake prediction map, for example. In response to this, an earthquake prediction map may be created using one or more pieces of prediction result information held. The reception by the earthquake prediction map creation unit 22 may be received from the earthquake prediction device 1 or the terminal 3, or may be received via an input device in the earthquake prediction map creation device 2, for example.

  The earthquake prediction map creation unit 22 may immediately deliver the earthquake prediction map created in this way to, for example, the earthquake prediction map output unit 23, or an instruction to output the earthquake prediction map once stored in an internal memory or the like. May be delivered to the earthquake prediction map output unit 23 in response to receiving the earthquake prediction map output instruction.

  The earthquake prediction map output unit 23 outputs the earthquake prediction map created by the earthquake prediction map creation unit 22. The output from the earthquake prediction map output unit 23 is normally transmission to the terminal 3, but may be output via an output device such as a display in the earthquake prediction map creation apparatus 2 or an external display.

  The earthquake prediction map output unit 23 holds, for example, a terminal identifier (IP address, mail address, etc.) for identifying one or more terminals 3 and transmits the created earthquake prediction map to one or more terminals 3. It is preferable to do. The transmission may be, for example, autonomous transmission to one or more terminals 3 (hereinafter also referred to as distribution), or the earthquake prediction device 1 or terminal that is the transmission source of the earthquake prediction map output instruction. 3 may be transmitted.

  The earthquake prediction map output unit 23 may execute the earthquake prediction map output process for outputting the earthquake prediction map as described above, for example, in response to the newly created earthquake prediction map, You may perform according to the existing earthquake prediction map having been updated. Alternatively, the earthquake prediction map may be output, for example, in response to an earthquake prediction map output instruction being accepted, and the output timing or trigger is not questioned.

  The storage unit 11, the position information storage unit 111, and the map information storage unit 21 are preferably non-volatile recording media such as a hard disk and a flash memory, but can also be realized as a volatile recording medium such as a RAM.

  The process in which information is stored in the storage unit 11 or the like is not limited. For example, information may be stored in the storage unit 11 or the like via a recording medium, or information transmitted via a network or a communication line may be stored in the storage unit 11 or the like. Alternatively, information input via the input device may be stored in the storage unit 11 or the like. The input device may be anything such as a keyboard, a mouse, a touch panel, etc.

  The receiving unit 12 may or may not include an input device. The receiving unit 12 can be realized by driver software of the input device or by the input device and its driver software.

  The reception function of the reception unit 12 and the reception function of the earthquake prediction map creation unit 22 are usually realized by wired or wireless communication means (for example, a communication module such as a NIC (Network Interface Controller) or a modem). It may be realized by means for receiving a broadcast (for example, a broadcast receiving module).

  The processing unit 13, the change acquisition unit 131, the determination unit 132, the risk level acquisition unit 133, and the earthquake prediction map creation unit 22 can be usually realized by an MPU, a memory, or the like. The processing procedure of the processing unit 13 or the like is usually realized by software, and the software is recorded on a recording medium such as a ROM. However, the processing procedure may be realized by hardware (dedicated circuit).

  The output unit 14, the prediction result output unit 141, and the earthquake prediction map output unit 23 may or may not include an output device such as a display or a speaker. The output unit 14 and the like can be realized by output device driver software, or by an output device and its driver software.

  Note that the transmission function of the output unit 14, the transmission function of the prediction result output unit 141, and the transmission function of the earthquake prediction map output unit 23 are usually realized by wired or wireless communication means, but are broadcast means (for example, broadcast Module).

  Next, the operation of the earthquake prediction system will be described using the flowcharts of FIGS.

  FIG. 2 is a flowchart for explaining the operation of the earthquake prediction apparatus 1.

  (Step S201) The processing unit 13 determines whether or not to perform earthquake prediction. For example, the processing unit 13 may determine that the earthquake prediction is performed when the reception unit 12 receives an earthquake prediction instruction or receives a group information group. If an earthquake is predicted, the process proceeds to step S202. If not, the process returns to step S201.

  (Step S202) The change acquisition unit 131 sets an initial value 1 to a variable i. The variable i is a variable for sequentially selecting pair information corresponding to an unselected point identifier among two or more pieces of pair information stored in the position information storage unit 111 in association with the point identifier. It is.

  (Step S203) The change acquisition unit 131 determines whether there is an i-th spot identifier. If there is an i-th point identifier, the process proceeds to step S204, and if not, the process returns to step S201.

  (Step S204) The acquisition change acquisition unit 131 is an electronic reference point position information group that is a set of electronic reference point position information associated with time information belonging to the first period from the set information group corresponding to the i th point identifier. And using the electronic reference point position information group, change information relating to changes in the electronic reference point position information in the first period is acquired.

  (Step S205) The determination unit 132 determines whether the change indicated by the change information acquired in Step S204 is a change that is small enough to satisfy a predetermined change condition. When the change indicated by the change information is a change that is small enough to satisfy the change condition, the process proceeds to step S206. Otherwise, the process proceeds to step S207.

  (Step S206) The prediction result output unit 141 outputs prediction result information related to the occurrence of an earthquake in the region including the point within the second period. The output is normally transmission to the earthquake prediction map creation device 2 or the terminal 3, but may be output within the earthquake prediction device 1.

  (Step S207) The change acquisition unit 131 increments the variable i. Thereafter, the process returns to step S203.

  In the flowchart of FIG. 2, the process starts in response to power-on of the earthquake prediction apparatus 1 or activation of the program, and the process ends by interruption of power-off or process end. However, the trigger for starting or ending the process does not matter.

  Further, in the case of the earthquake prediction apparatus 1 that also has an earthquake prediction map creation function, if NO in step S203, for example, the processing unit 13 and the output unit 14 execute steps S301 to S304 shown in FIG. Good.

  FIG. 3 is a flowchart for explaining the operation of the earthquake prediction map creating apparatus 2.

  (Step S301) The earthquake prediction map creation unit 22 determines whether or not to create an earthquake prediction map. For example, the earthquake prediction map creation unit 22 may determine to create an earthquake prediction map in response to receiving the prediction result information transmitted from the earthquake prediction device 1 or issue an earthquake prediction map creation instruction. It may be determined that an earthquake prediction map is created according to the acceptance. If an earthquake prediction map is to be created, the process proceeds to step S302; otherwise, the process proceeds to step S303.

  (Step S302) The earthquake prediction map creation unit 22 uses the prediction result information from the earthquake prediction device 1 and the map information stored in the map information storage unit 21 to indicate a sign indicating an earthquake occurrence prediction point or an earthquake occurrence prediction. Create an earthquake prediction map with images of areas and so on. In addition, although the earthquake prediction map preparation part 22 delivers the earthquake prediction map produced here to the earthquake prediction map output part 23 normally, you may accumulate | store in an internal memory etc., for example. Then, it returns to step S301.

  (Step S303) The earthquake prediction map output unit 23 determines whether or not to output an earthquake prediction map. For example, the earthquake prediction map output unit 23 may determine to output the earthquake prediction map in response to the fact that the earthquake prediction map creation unit 22 created the earthquake prediction map in step S302, or the earthquake prediction map instruction It may be determined that the earthquake prediction map is output in response to the acceptance of. The reception may be, for example, reception from the earthquake prediction device 1 or the terminal 3 or reception within the earthquake prediction map creation device 2. When outputting an earthquake prediction map, it progresses to step S304, and when not outputting, it returns to step S301.

  (Step S304) The earthquake prediction map output unit 23 outputs the earthquake prediction map created in step S302. The output here may be, for example, distribution to one or more terminals 3, or transmission to the earthquake prediction device 1 or terminal 3 that is the transmission source of the earthquake prediction map output instruction, or earthquake prediction An output in the map creation device 2 may be used. Then, it returns to step S301.

  In the flowchart of FIG. 3, the process starts in response to the power-on of the earthquake prediction map creating apparatus 2 or the activation of the program, and the process ends by interruption of power-off or process end. However, the trigger for starting or ending the process does not matter.

  Hereinafter, a specific operation example of the earthquake prediction system in the present embodiment will be described. Here, the Kumamoto earthquake that occurred on April 14, 2016 will be described as an example with reference to FIGS.

  In this example, the electronic reference point position information is electronic reference point data provided by the Geographical Survey Institute, and the number of points is about 1300. The earthquake prediction system of this example includes an earthquake prediction device 1 that also has an earthquake prediction map creation function, and several tens or more terminals 3. The earthquake prediction device 1 is a server of an organization that operates this earthquake prediction system, and is operated by the staff of the organization. Each terminal 3 is, for example, a PC or a portable terminal such as a local government or a power plant. The first period is 175 days, the second period is 14 days, and the third period is 365 days. The change condition is “the average value of the difference in the first period normalized or less than or smaller than a predetermined threshold value”, and the threshold values are X, Y, Z, latitude, longitude, and high It is assumed that the value is between 0.90 and 0.93, and is 0.9 below. The magnitude of the earthquake targeted for prediction is a seismic intensity of 5 or higher.

  The position information storage unit 111 of the earthquake prediction apparatus 1 stores a large number of pieces of group information as shown in FIG. 4, for example. FIG. 4 shows a data structure of the set information. The group information includes time information and electronic reference point position information. The electronic reference point position information has six values of X, Y, Z, latitude, longitude, and height. Each set information is associated with an ID (for example, “1”, “2”, “p”, “q”, etc.).

  For example, the group information associated with ID “1” (hereinafter sometimes referred to as group information 1) includes time information “1996/3/21” and electronic reference point position information “x1, y1, z1, n1”. , E1, h1 ″. Similarly, the set information (set information 2) associated with the ID “2” includes time information “1996/3/22” and electronic reference point position information “x2, y2, z2, n2, e2, h2”. Have. The set information p includes time information “2015/4/15” and electronic reference point position information “xp, yp, zp, np, ep, hp”. The group information q includes time information “2015/10/6” and electronic reference point position information “xq, yq, zq, nq, eq, hq”. The set information r includes time information “2015/10/22” and electronic reference point position information “xr, yr, zr, nr, er, hr”. Furthermore, the set information s includes time information “2016/4/13” and electronic reference point position information “xs, ys, zs, ns, es, hs”.

  The group information 1 to s and the like are associated with the point identifier “P1”. This point identifier “P1” is an identifier of one point P1 located near the epicenter of the Kumamoto earthquake.

  The set information t includes time information “1996/3/21” and electronic reference point position information “xt, yt, zt, nt, et, ht”. The group information t and the like are associated with the point identifier “P2”. The point identifier “P2” is, for example, an identifier of another point P2 in or around the same Kumamoto prefecture.

  Now, it is assumed that the staff of the group inputs an earthquake prediction instruction together with the date “2016/4/14” when the Kumamoto earthquake occurred via the input device of the earthquake prediction apparatus 1.

  In the earthquake prediction device 1, the reception unit 12 receives the earthquake prediction instruction together with the date, and the change acquisition unit 131 first starts from 175 days before the date in the group information group corresponding to the point identifier “P1”. An electronic reference point which is a set of electronic reference point position information from 175 pieces of information r to s associated with time information “2015/10/22 to 2016/4/13” belonging to the first period until one day ago A position information group is extracted. At this time, the output unit 14 may graph and output the six values of the extracted electronic reference point position information group. As an example, an outline of a graph of Y values is shown in FIG. In addition, the process which graphs a numerical value group is well-known, and abbreviate | omits description. The same applies to acquisition of a histogram which will be described later.

  FIG. 5 is a diagram showing an outline of a graph relating to a change in the Y value. For example, on the day of the earthquake, the Y value changes rapidly, but the fluctuation range is small immediately before the sudden change (first period indicated by an ellipse).

  Next, the change acquisition unit 131 uses the electronic reference point position information group extracted as described above to acquire change information regarding changes in the electronic reference point position information in the first period for each of the six values. . In this example, the change acquisition unit 131 acquires, for example, “normalized difference average value ΔXna (D) in the first period” using the above-described five expressions 1 to 5 as the change information. To do. Similarly, the change acquisition unit 131 also acquires ΔYna (D), ΔZna (D), Δ latitude na (D), Δ longitude na (D), and Δ height na (D).

  Specifically, the change acquisition unit 131 first uses the above equation 1 and the X value group of the first period to calculate ΔX (2016/4/13) = | X (2016/4/13) −X (2016 / 4/12) |, ΔX (2016/4/12) = | X (2016/4/12) −X (2016/4/11) |,..., ΔX (2015/10/22) = | X (2015 / 10/22) -X (2015/10/21) |. Regarding the other five values, the change acquisition unit 131 similarly acquires 175 difference groups.

  Next, the change acquisition unit 131 calculates the average value ΔXa (2016/4/13) = [ΔX (2015/10/22) +... + ΔX (2016/4/13) of the 175 difference groups according to the above equation 2. )] / 175 etc. For each date prior to 2016/4/12, the change acquisition unit 131 similarly acquires an average value. Regarding the other five values, the change acquisition unit 131 similarly acquires an average value group. At this time, the output unit 14 may graph and output the average value group thus obtained.

  For the values of ΔXna (D), ΔYna (D), ΔZna (D), Δlatitude na (D), Δlongitude na (D), and Δheight na (D) that are less than the threshold, the deviation from the threshold Depending on the size, the output unit 14 may express the colors of the marks indicating the predicted earthquake occurrence points in five levels in descending order of the degree of danger, for example, the color intensity from red to white.

  Next, the change acquisition unit 131 calculates the average value ΔXm (2016/4/13) of the difference group in the third period (in this example, 365 days to 2016/4/13) by the above expression 3 Using the above difference, the above equation 3 is used. Since the 175 differences have already been acquired, the change acquisition unit 131 sets the combination information p to the combination information (r−1) corresponding to the previous 190 days (2015/4/15 to 2015/10/21). Further, ΔXm (2016/4/13) of the above equation 3 can be obtained by obtaining 190 differences by the above equation 1. For each date prior to 2016/4/12, the change acquisition unit 131 similarly acquires an average value. Regarding the other five values, the change acquisition unit 131 similarly acquires an average value group.

  Next, the change acquisition unit 131 uses ΔXm (2016/4/13) acquired by the above equation 3 and the normalized difference ΔXn (2016/4/13) = | X (2016) by the above equation 4. / 4/13) −X (2016/4/12) | / ΔXm (2016/4/13) is acquired. For each date prior to 2016/4/12, the change acquisition unit 131 similarly acquires a normalized difference. Regarding the other five values, the change acquisition unit 131 similarly acquires a normalized difference group.

  Next, the change acquisition unit 131 uses the normalized difference group acquired by the above equation 4 to obtain the “normalized difference average value ΔXna (2016 / 4/13) = [ΔXn (2015/10/22) +... + ΔXn (2016/4/13)] / 175 ”. For each date prior to 2016/4/12, the change acquisition unit 131 similarly acquires “normalized average value of differences in the first period”. Regarding the other five values, the change acquisition unit 131 similarly acquires “normalized group of average values of differences in the first period”.

  The determination unit 132 holds a predetermined change condition “normalized, at least one of the average values of the six values in the first period is equal to or less than the threshold value 0.9”. The change indicated by the change information acquired by the change acquisition unit 131 is “normalized difference average value ΔXna (2016/4/13) in the first period” as small as the change condition is satisfied. Determine whether or not. The determination unit 132 makes the same determination for each date before 2016/4/12. Further, the determination unit 132 includes ΔYna (2016/4/13), ΔZna (2016/4/13), Δlatitude na (2016/4/13), Δlongitude na (2016/4/13), and Δhigh. The same determination is made for each of na (2016/4/13).

  If at least one of the six determination results is a positive determination result, the determination unit 132 determines that the change indicated by the change information acquired by the change acquisition unit 131 satisfies the change condition.

  In response to the determination unit 132 determining that the change condition is satisfied, the prediction result output unit 141 may, for example, “within 14 days, within a range of 5 degrees × 5 degrees including Kumamoto Prefecture, with a seismic intensity of 5 or higher. Character information indicating that “the occurrence of a large earthquake is predicted” or image data of an earthquake prediction map having such a range on a map image is output via a display.

  At this time, the output unit 14 acquires a histogram indicating the frequency distribution of the “normalized average group of differences in the first period” acquired as described above, and color-codes the result according to the determination result. May be output. As an example, an outline of a histogram relating to Δlatitude na is shown in FIG.

  FIG. 6 is a diagram schematically showing a histogram showing the frequency distribution of Δlatitude na corresponding to electronic reference points throughout Japan. The blue curve (left mountain) corresponds to the distribution of Δlatitude na immediately before the occurrence of the earthquake, and the reddish brown curve (right mountain) corresponds to the distribution of Δlatitude na when no earthquake occurs. The vertical line between the two peaks is the threshold. The staff may look at such a histogram displayed on the display, for example, determine the validity of the threshold from the positional relationship between the two peaks and the threshold, and perform an operation of changing the threshold as necessary. In the earthquake prediction device 1, the receiving unit 12 receives the operation, and the determining unit 132 may change the threshold value held.

  Alternatively, as described above, the determination unit 132 repeatedly executes the above processing while automatically changing the threshold value, and selects a threshold value that maximizes the accuracy rate of the prediction result information by the prediction result output unit 141. Thus, for example, it is preferable to obtain an optimum threshold value every 6 values, every point, or every combination of 6 values and points.

  Thereafter, the earthquake prediction device 1 executes the above processing for the point P2, and further sequentially executes the other points. As a result, for example, prediction result information for predicting the occurrence of an earthquake is predicted for a total of 6 points including the above points P1 and P2 in Kumamoto, a point P3 in the same Kyushu, and 3 points P4 to P6 in the Kinki region. It is assumed that the result is output by the result output unit 141.

  The earthquake prediction map creation unit 22 uses the above six prediction result information and the map information stored in the map information storage unit 21 to have an earthquake prediction map having six circles indicating the predicted earthquake occurrence points P1 to P6. Create

  In addition, the earthquake prediction map creation unit 22 acquires, for example, the distances between the six earthquake occurrence prediction points P1 to P6 and sets predetermined conditions (for example, the linear distance between the two points is within 3 degrees). It is determined whether there are two or more earthquake occurrence prediction points that are close to each other as they are satisfied. In this example, it is assumed that three points P1 to P3 in Kyushu satisfy such conditions, and that three points P4 to P6 in the Kinki region are determined to satisfy this condition.

  Therefore, for example, as illustrated in FIG. 7, the earthquake prediction map creation unit 22 has ± 2.5 degrees in the latitude direction and ± 2.5 in the longitude direction with respect to the first rectangular region including the points P1 to P3. A region corresponding to the expanded range is arranged on the earthquake prediction map as a first earthquake occurrence prediction region. The earthquake prediction map creation unit 22 also corresponds to the expanded range of ± 2.5 degrees in the latitude direction and ± 2.5 degrees in the longitude direction for the second rectangular area including the points P4 to P6. The region is further arranged on the earthquake prediction map as a second earthquake occurrence prediction region.

  The earthquake prediction map output unit 23 outputs the earthquake prediction map thus created by the earthquake prediction map creation unit 22 to the display. Thereby, the earthquake prediction map as shown in FIG. 7 is displayed on the display. However, the displayed earthquake prediction map does not have to have numerical values or arrows for explaining the expansion of the area described above. Moreover, in the displayed earthquake prediction map, the circle may be displayed in a different manner depending on the degree of risk.

  Moreover, the earthquake prediction map output part 23 may deliver the earthquake prediction map to each terminal 3, for example, whenever a new earthquake prediction map is created. Thereby, the latest earthquake prediction map is displayed on the display of the terminal 3 such as a local government.

  A display example of the earthquake prediction map is shown in FIG. This earthquake prediction map has two cross marks indicating the epicenter of the earthquake and six circle marks indicating earthquake occurrence prediction points. One cross mark is off Tohoku, and the other cross is in the Chubu region. Each circle is colored either deep red, slightly dark red, slightly light red, light red, or white, depending on the risk at that point.

  Two of the six circles are dark red, indicating the highest degree of danger, both in the Tohoku region. One of the other four circles is located in the south of Hokkaido, relatively close to the epicenter off Tohoku, and the other three are in the Chubu region.

  The earthquake prediction map includes a first earthquake occurrence prediction region including the two earthquake occurrence prediction points in the Tohoku region, a second earthquake occurrence prediction region including the one earthquake occurrence prediction point in Hokkaido, It also has a total of three earthquake occurrence prediction areas, including the third earthquake occurrence prediction area including the three earthquake occurrence prediction points in the Chubu region.

  With such an earthquake prediction map, for example, a staff member of a local government or the like in the earthquake occurrence prediction area can take measures against an earthquake in the near future.

  As described above, according to the present embodiment, the position information storage unit 111 stores information on the position of the electronic reference point corresponding to one point, and information on the position of the electronic reference point corresponding to two or more times. Is stored, and the earthquake prediction apparatus 1 acquires change information regarding a change in electronic reference point position information in a predetermined first period at one point, and a change indicated by the change information is determined in advance. If it is determined that the change condition is so small that the change condition is satisfied, and within a predetermined second period, the area including the point is larger than the predetermined scale or more. By outputting prediction result information regarding the occurrence of a large earthquake, short-term earthquake prediction can be accurately performed using the phenomenon that the position change of the electronic reference point is reduced immediately before the occurrence of the earthquake.

  In addition, since the first period is between 160 days and 190 days, preferably between 165 days and 185 days, the earthquake prediction device 1 can perform short-term earthquake prediction with high accuracy.

  Further, since the first period is 175 days, the earthquake prediction device 1 can perform the short-term earthquake prediction with higher accuracy.

  In addition, since the second period is 14 days, the earthquake prediction device 1 can accurately perform a short-term earthquake prediction of about two weeks.

  Moreover, the earthquake prediction apparatus 1 acquires the difference between the electronic reference point position information on the current day and the electronic reference point position information on the previous day for each date belonging to the first period, and calculates the average value of the differences in the first period. Obtain and average the difference value in the third period longer than the first period, and normalize by dividing the average value of the difference in the first period by the average value of the difference in the third period The average value of the difference in the first period is obtained, and the change condition is that the average value of the difference in the first period is equal to or less than a predetermined threshold value, which is normalized. , Short-term earthquake prediction with high accuracy.

  Moreover, since the said threshold value is between 0.80 and 1.00, the earthquake prediction apparatus 1 can perform a short-term earthquake prediction accurately.

  The electronic reference point position information includes information on X, Y, Z, latitude, longitude, and height, and the threshold value is 0.90 to 0 for X, Y, Z, latitude, longitude, and height. .93, the earthquake prediction device 1 can perform short-term earthquake prediction with higher accuracy.

  The third period is preferably between 1 and 4 years, and may be 365 days, for example.

  Moreover, the earthquake prediction apparatus 1 uses the change information to obtain risk information related to the risk of the earthquake at the point, and the prediction result information includes the risk information so that accurate short-term earthquake prediction A prediction result indicating the risk of earthquake is obtained.

  The map information storage unit 21 stores a map image that is an image of a map and map information including two or more pieces of point information related to the points. The earthquake prediction map creation device 2 is applied to two or more points. One or more indicating an earthquake occurrence prediction point that is a point where an earthquake of a magnitude larger than or larger than a predetermined magnitude is predicted to occur using one or more prediction result information output by the earthquake prediction device 1 and map information An earthquake prediction map showing one or more earthquake occurrence prediction points based on accurate short-term earthquake predictions at two or more points by creating an earthquake prediction map with a mark on the map image and outputting the earthquake prediction map A map is obtained.

  Moreover, the earthquake prediction map creation device 2 creates one or more earthquake occurrence prediction areas including one or more earthquake occurrence prediction areas including an earthquake occurrence prediction area on the map image, thereby generating one or more earthquakes including the earthquake occurrence prediction area. An earthquake prediction map that also shows the prediction area is obtained.

  In addition, the earthquake prediction map creation device 2 uses one region including two or more earthquake occurrence prediction points as an earthquake occurrence prediction region for two or more earthquake occurrence prediction points that are close to each other as a predetermined condition is satisfied. By creating a prediction map, two or more earthquake occurrence prediction regions that overlap most can be integrated into one.

  The earthquake prediction map creation device 2 creates an earthquake prediction map using one or more prediction result information each time the earthquake prediction device 1 outputs one or more prediction result information. By transmitting to the terminal 3 described above, an earthquake prediction map based on the latest prediction result can be notified to the user of the terminal 3.

  Furthermore, the processing in the present embodiment may be realized by software. Then, this software may be distributed by software download or the like. Further, this software may be recorded and distributed on a recording medium such as a CD-ROM.

  In addition, the software which implement | achieves the earthquake prediction apparatus 1 in this Embodiment is the following programs, for example. That is, the recording medium accessible by the computer of the earthquake prediction device 1 is information on the position of the electronic reference point corresponding to one point, and electronic reference point position information that is information on the position at each of two or more times. The program includes a position information storage unit 111 to be stored, and this program acquires a change information about a change in electronic reference point position information in a predetermined first period at a computer. 131, a determination unit 132 that determines whether the change indicated by the change information is small enough to satisfy a predetermined change condition, and a case where the determination unit 132 determines that the change condition is small enough to satisfy the change condition Prediction result information regarding the occurrence of an earthquake that is larger than or larger than a predetermined magnitude in an area including the point within a predetermined second period. Is a program for functioning as a prediction result output unit 141 that force.

  Moreover, the software which implement | achieves the earthquake prediction map preparation apparatus 2 in this Embodiment is the following programs, for example. That is, the computer-accessible recording medium of the earthquake prediction map creation apparatus 2 includes a map information storage unit 21 in which map information that is a map image and map information including two or more pieces of point information regarding points are stored. In this program, the computer uses one or more prediction result information output from the earthquake prediction device 1 applied to two or more points and the map information, and an earthquake larger than or larger than a predetermined scale is detected. An earthquake prediction map creating unit 22 that creates an earthquake prediction map having one or more marks indicating an earthquake occurrence prediction point that is a point predicted to occur on the map image, and an earthquake prediction map output that outputs the earthquake prediction map This is a program for functioning as the unit 23.

  FIG. 9 is an external view of a computer system 900 that executes the program according to the present embodiment to realize the earthquake prediction device 1, the earthquake prediction map creation device 2, and the like. The present embodiment can be realized by computer hardware and a computer program executed on the computer hardware. In FIG. 9, the computer system 900 includes a computer 901 including a disk drive 905, a keyboard 902, a mouse 903, and a display 904. Note that the entire system including the keyboard 902, the mouse 903, and the display 904 may be called a computer.

  FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating an example of the internal configuration of the computer system 900. In FIG. 10, in addition to the disk drive 905, a computer 901 is connected to an MPU 911, a ROM 912 for storing a program such as a bootup program, and the MPU 911, and temporarily stores an instruction of an application program. A RAM 913 that provides storage space, a storage 914 that stores application programs, system programs, and data, a bus 915 that interconnects the MPU 911, ROM 912, and the like, and a connection to a network such as an external network or an internal network is provided. A network card 916. The storage 914 is, for example, a hard disk, SSD, flash memory, or the like.

  A program that causes the computer system 900 to execute functions such as the earthquake prediction device 1 may be stored in a disk 921 such as a DVD or a CD-ROM, inserted into the disk drive 905, and transferred to the storage 914. Alternatively, the program may be transmitted to the computer 901 via the network and stored in the storage 914. The program is loaded into the RAM 913 when executed. The program may be loaded directly from the disk 921 or the network. Further, the program may be read into the computer system 900 via another removable recording medium (for example, a DVD or a memory card) instead of the disk 921.

  The program may not necessarily include an operating system (OS) or a third-party program that causes the function of the earthquake prediction device 1 or the like to be executed in 901 indicating the details of the computer. The program may include only a part of an instruction that calls an appropriate function or module in a controlled manner and obtains a desired result. How the computer system 900 operates is well known and will not be described in detail.

  The computer system 900 described above is a server or a stationary PC, but the terminal 3 may be realized by a mobile terminal such as a tablet terminal, a smartphone, or a notebook PC. In this case, for example, the keyboard 902 and the mouse 903 are preferably replaced with a touch panel, the disk drive 905 is replaced with a memory card slot, and the disk 921 is replaced with a memory card. However, the above is an example, and the hardware configuration of the computer that realizes the earthquake prediction device 1 or the like is not limited.

  In the above program, in a transmission step for transmitting information, a reception step for receiving information, etc., processing performed by hardware, for example, processing performed by a modem or an interface card in the transmission step (only performed by hardware). Not included) is not included.

  Further, the computer that executes the program may be singular or plural. That is, centralized processing may be performed, or distributed processing may be performed.

  Further, in each of the above embodiments, two or more communication means (such as the reception function of the reception unit 12 and the transmission function of the output unit 14) existing in one device may be physically realized by one medium. Needless to say.

  In each of the above embodiments, each process (each function) may be realized by centralized processing by a single device (system), or by distributed processing by a plurality of devices. May be.

  The present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments, and various modifications are possible, and it goes without saying that these are also included in the scope of the present invention.

  As described above, the earthquake prediction apparatus according to the present invention has an effect that a short-term earthquake prediction can be accurately performed, and is useful as an earthquake prediction apparatus or the like.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 Earthquake prediction apparatus 2 Earthquake prediction map creation apparatus 3 Terminal 11 Storage part 12 Reception part 13 Processing part 14 Output part 21 Map information storage part 22 Earthquake prediction map creation part 23 Earthquake prediction map output part 111 Location information storage part 131 Change acquisition part 132 Judgment Unit 133 Risk Level Acquisition Unit 141 Prediction Result Output Unit

Claims (15)

A position information storage unit that stores information on the position of an electronic reference point corresponding to one point, and stores electronic reference point position information that is information on a position at each of two or more times;
A change acquisition unit for acquiring change information regarding a change in electronic reference point position information in a predetermined first period at the one point;
A determination unit that determines whether the change indicated by the change information is small enough to satisfy a predetermined change condition;
When the determination unit determines that the change condition is small enough to satisfy the change condition, an earthquake that is larger than or larger than a predetermined magnitude occurs in an area including the point within a predetermined second period. A prediction result output unit that outputs prediction result information ;
The change acquisition unit
For each date belonging to the first period, obtain the absolute value of the difference between the electronic reference point position information of the day and the electronic reference point position information of the day before a predetermined number of days,
Obtain the average value of the absolute value of the difference in the first period,
Obtaining an average value of the absolute values of the differences in a third period longer than the first period;
The average of the absolute value of the difference in the first period, normalized by dividing the average value of the absolute value of the difference in the first period by the average value of the absolute value of the difference in the third period Get the value
The change condition is the earthquake prediction device in which the normalized average value of the absolute values of the differences in the first period is equal to or less than a predetermined threshold value . The threshold value, the earthquake prediction apparatus according to claim 1, wherein is between 0.80 to 1.00. The electronic reference point position information includes information on X, Y, Z, latitude, longitude, and height,
The earthquake prediction apparatus according to claim 2 , wherein the threshold value is between 0.90 and 0.93 for X, Y, Z, latitude, longitude, and height. The earthquake prediction apparatus according to any one of claims 1 to 3 , wherein the first period is between 160 days and 190 days. The earthquake prediction apparatus according to claim 4 , wherein the first period is 175 days. The earthquake prediction apparatus according to any one of claims 1 to 5 , wherein the second period is 14 days. Using the change information, further comprising a risk level acquisition unit for acquiring risk level information regarding the risk level of an earthquake at the point,
The earthquake prediction apparatus according to any one of claims 1 to 6 , wherein the prediction result information includes the risk level information. A map information storage unit in which map information that is an image of a map and map information including two or more pieces of point information relating to points are stored;
Claim 1 according to any one of claims 7, using the one or more prediction result information earthquake prediction apparatus is applied to a two or more points is output, and the map information, a predetermined An earthquake prediction map creating unit that creates an earthquake prediction map having one or more marks indicating an earthquake occurrence prediction point on the map image, which is a point where an earthquake of a magnitude greater than or greater than that is predicted to occur,
An earthquake prediction map creation device comprising: an earthquake prediction map output unit for outputting the earthquake prediction map. The earthquake prediction map creation unit
The earthquake prediction map creation device according to claim 8 which creates an earthquake prediction map which further has one or more earthquake occurrence prediction fields including said earthquake occurrence prediction point on said map image. The earthquake prediction map creation unit
For two or more earthquake prediction point close enough predetermined condition is satisfied together, claim and create earthquake prediction map an area including the two or more earthquake prediction point as earthquake prediction region 9 The earthquake prediction map creation device described. The earthquake prediction map creation unit
Each time the earthquake prediction device outputs one or more prediction result information, an earthquake prediction map is created using the one or more prediction result information,
The earthquake prediction map output unit
The earthquake prediction map creation device according to any one of claims 9 to 10, wherein the earthquake prediction map created by the earthquake prediction map creation unit is transmitted to one or more terminals. A position information storage unit that stores information on the position of an electronic reference point corresponding to one point, and stores information on the position of the electronic reference point that is information on the position at each of two or more times, a change acquisition unit, a determination unit, and An earthquake prediction method realized by a prediction result output unit,
The change acquisition step in which the change acquisition unit acquires change information regarding a change in electronic reference point position information in a predetermined first period at the one point;
A determination step of determining whether or not the change indicated by the change information is small enough to satisfy a predetermined change condition;
When the prediction result output unit determines that the determination unit is small enough to satisfy the change condition, within a predetermined second period, in a region including the point, or more than a predetermined scale or more only it contains the prediction result output step of large earthquake outputs the prediction result information relates to occur,
The change acquisition unit
For each date belonging to the first period, obtain the absolute value of the difference between the electronic reference point position information of the day and the electronic reference point position information of the day before a predetermined number of days,
Obtain the average value of the absolute value of the difference in the first period,
Obtaining an average value of the absolute values of the differences in a third period longer than the first period;
The average of the absolute value of the difference in the first period, normalized by dividing the average value of the absolute value of the difference in the first period by the average value of the absolute value of the difference in the third period Get the value
The change prediction method is an earthquake prediction method in which the normalized average value of the absolute values of differences in the first period is equal to or less than a predetermined threshold value . Map image of a map, and and map information storage unit which map information including at least two point information related to the point is stored, there earthquake prediction apparatus according to any one of claims 1 to 7 An earthquake prediction map creation method realized by an earthquake prediction device applied to two or more points, an earthquake prediction map creation unit, and an earthquake prediction map output unit,
The earthquake prediction map creation unit is a point where an earthquake larger than or larger than a predetermined scale is predicted to occur by using one or more prediction result information output by the earthquake prediction device and the map information. An earthquake prediction map creating step for creating an earthquake prediction map having one or more marks indicating earthquake occurrence prediction points on the map image;
An earthquake prediction map creating method, wherein the earthquake prediction map output unit includes an earthquake prediction map output step of outputting the earthquake prediction map. The recording media that the computer of the earthquake prediction device can access are
A position information storage unit that stores information on the position of an electronic reference point corresponding to one point, and stores electronic reference point position information that is information on a position at each of two or more times,
The computer,
A change acquisition unit for acquiring change information regarding a change in electronic reference point position information in a predetermined first period at the one point;
A determination unit that determines whether the change indicated by the change information is small enough to satisfy a predetermined change condition;
When the determination unit determines that the change condition is small enough to satisfy the change condition, an earthquake that is larger than or larger than a predetermined magnitude occurs in an area including the point within a predetermined second period. Function as a prediction result output unit that outputs prediction result information ,
The change acquisition unit
For each date belonging to the first period, obtain the absolute value of the difference between the electronic reference point position information of the day and the electronic reference point position information of the day before a predetermined number of days,
Obtain the average value of the absolute value of the difference in the first period,
Obtaining an average value of the absolute values of the differences in a third period longer than the first period;
The average of the absolute value of the difference in the first period, normalized by dividing the average value of the absolute value of the difference in the first period by the average value of the absolute value of the difference in the third period Get the value
The change condition is a program in which the normalized average value of absolute values of differences in the first period is equal to or less than a predetermined threshold value . The recording media that the computer of the earthquake prediction map creation device can access are
A map information storage unit that stores a map image that is an image of a map and map information that includes two or more pieces of point information relating to points;
The computer,
15. The earthquake prediction device according to claim 14 , wherein the map information is used to obtain a scale larger than a predetermined scale or more by using one or more prediction result information output from an earthquake prediction device applied to two or more points. An earthquake prediction map creation unit that creates an earthquake prediction map having one or more marks indicating an earthquake occurrence prediction point, which is a point where a large earthquake is predicted to occur, on the map image;
The program for functioning as an earthquake prediction map output part which outputs the said earthquake prediction map.