JP6009864B2 - Company evaluation system, company evaluation method and company evaluation program - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to a company evaluation system, a company evaluation method, and a company evaluation program for evaluating a company risk such as investment risk and bankruptcy risk.

  The economic environment surrounding Japanese companies is severe due to intensifying competition on a global basis and prolonged recession. From the viewpoint of risk avoidance, it is important for a business partner of a company in such an economic environment or a stakeholder who makes an investment or loan to grasp in advance signs of bankruptcy.

  Therefore, studies for predicting the bankruptcy of companies have been made conventionally (see, for example, Patent Document 1). In the technique described in this document, the computer performs logit transformation obtained by logit transforming the bankruptcy probability actual value by [ln (bankruptcy probability actual / 1-bankruptcy probability actual value)] with respect to the division data for each category set. A regression analysis based on the quantification theory type 1 with the actual bankruptcy probability actual value as an objective variable is performed to calculate a score value for each item category. Further, the computer, for the specified item category, logit value L = [score category score value + industry category score value + growth rate category score value + interest rate category score value + exchange category score value + price category score value + government category Score value + constant] Then, using the logit value L, the bankruptcy probability is calculated by [1 / (1 + exp (−L))].

Japanese Patent Laying-Open No. 2008-250466 (first page, FIGS. 1 and 2)

  Usually, the cause of bankruptcy is lack of payment ability such as lack of working capital. And in the technology described in the literature, changes in credit factors such as work history, capital structure, scale profit and loss, and economic environment are used. However, bankruptcy risk may not be assessed accurately because lack of payment capability is not considered. Furthermore, in this case, since it requires specialized knowledge such as statistics and accounting such as the quantification theory class 1, it may be difficult to apply.

  An object of the present invention is to provide a company evaluation system, a company evaluation method, and a company evaluation program for evaluating a company risk by a simple method.

  In order to solve the above problems, the invention described in claim 1 stores cash flow information and profit information including operating cash flow, investment cash flow, and financial cash flow for each company for each company. The bankruptcy information storage means, the bankruptcy information storage means for storing the bankrupt company information on the bankrupt company, and the risk assessment matrix with two axes of cash flow information and profit information, whether the bankruptcy ratio is a high risk range Control means connected to a matrix storage means for storing a risk evaluation matrix used for the evaluation of and a high risk range storage means for storing a condition defining a high risk range using the area of the risk evaluation matrix A risk assessment system for a company, wherein the control means includes the financial information. A means for acquiring cash flow information and profit information of each company from the storage means, and an area to which each company belongs in the risk assessment matrix based on the acquired cash flow information and profit information, and the bankrupt company Using the information, from the high risk range specifying means for recording the conditions for defining the high risk range based on the area in the high risk range storage means, and the financial information of the evaluation target company, the evaluation target company in the risk evaluation matrix The gist of the present invention is to provide an evaluation unit that specifies an area to which the user belongs and uses the area and the conditions that define the high risk range to output an evaluation result of the evaluation target company.

  The invention described in claim 2 is the company evaluation system according to claim 1, wherein the financial information storage means stores a company scale value in a settlement period for each company, and the control means The company size value is acquired from the financial information storage means together with the cash flow information and profit information, and the cash flow standard value obtained by dividing each cash flow by the company size value for each company, and the profit for each company. Means for calculating a profit standard value divided by a value, and the high risk range specifying means further includes a bankruptcy ratio for each area of the matrix composed of the cash flow standard value and the profit standard value. A risk evaluation matrix in which identification information for identifying the height of the object is recorded and recorded in the matrix storage means, and the evaluation means The cash flow standard value and the profit standard value are calculated, the area to which the evaluation target company belongs is specified in the risk evaluation matrix, and the evaluation result of the evaluation target company is obtained from the conditions defining the high risk range of this area. The gist is to output.

  According to a third aspect of the present invention, in the enterprise evaluation system according to the second aspect, the evaluation means acquires cash flow information and profit information of a plurality of periods for the evaluation target company, and cash flows of a plurality of periods. A standard value and a profit standard value are calculated, a range corresponding to the risk evaluation matrix is specified for each of the plurality of settlement periods, and based on a range of the risk evaluation matrix to which the evaluation target company belongs in a plurality of settlement periods The gist is to output the evaluation result of the evaluation target company.

The invention described in claim 4 is the company evaluation system according to claim 2 or 3, wherein the financial information storage means stores a financial index, and the control means stores the financial index of the evaluation target company. means for obtaining, in the risk assessment matrix, and means for obtaining the financial indicators bankruptcy companies in the area of the evaluation target company belongs, said evaluating means, financial indicators before Symbol areas of the evaluation target company The gist is to calculate a comparison result comparing the financial index of the bankrupt company belonging to, and to output an evaluation result according to the comparison result and the specified range.

  The invention according to claim 5 is the company evaluation system according to claim 4, wherein the bankruptcy time prediction table for predicting the bankruptcy time from the bankruptcy ratio in each area of the risk evaluation matrix and the comparison result of the financial index. The evaluation means uses the bankruptcy time prediction table to specify a bankruptcy time according to a comparison result between a financial index of the evaluation target company and a financial index of a bankrupt company belonging to the area, The gist is to include this bankruptcy time in the evaluation result.

According to a sixth aspect of the present invention, in the company evaluation system according to the first aspect, the high risk range storage means stores an evaluation result of a company belonging to a class specified by the class identifier in association with the class identifier. The matrix storage means stores weight values associated with each area of the risk assessment matrix, and the control means stores each of the companies acquired from the financial information storage means. From each cash flow information and profit information, an area to which each company belongs in the risk assessment matrix is specified, and a weight value associated with the area is acquired, and the specified weight value is used for each company. The means for calculating the rating value of each and the companies arranged in the order of the calculated rating value are classified into a plurality of classes And bankruptcy company information acquired from the bankruptcy information storage means, calculate the bankruptcy ratio of companies belonging to each class, and associate the evaluation result of each class according to this bankruptcy ratio with the class identifier, Means for recording in the high risk range storage means, the evaluation means, using each cash flow information and profit information of the evaluation target company, to obtain a weighting value of the area to which the evaluation target company belongs, Calculate the rating value of the evaluation target company using this weighting value, specify the class to which this rating value belongs, obtain the evaluation result associated with the class identifier of this class from the high risk range storage means, The gist is to output the evaluation result for the enterprise to be evaluated.

  The invention described in claim 7 is the company evaluation system according to claim 6, wherein the evaluation means uses the cash flow information and profit information of the evaluation target company for each of the plurality of settlement periods. Further, the gist is to identify an area to which the evaluation target company belongs in the risk evaluation matrix, identify a weighted value of the identified area, and calculate a rating value using the weighted values identified in a plurality of settlement periods. .

  The invention described in claim 8 is bankrupt with financial information storage means storing cash flow information and profit information consisting of operating cash flow, investment cash flow, and financial cash flow for each company for each company. Risk assessment used to assess whether the bankruptcy ratio is high or not in a risk assessment matrix with bankruptcy information storage means that stores corporate bankruptcy information and cash flow information and profit information as two axes Using a company evaluation system comprising control means connected to matrix storage means for storing a matrix and high risk range storage means for storing conditions for defining a high risk range using the area of the risk evaluation matrix, A risk assessment method for a company, wherein the control means stores the financial information storage From the stage, the cash flow information and profit information of each company is acquired, and based on the acquired cash flow information and profit information, the area to which each company belongs is specified in the risk assessment matrix, and the bankrupt company information The high risk range specifying stage for recording the conditions defining the high risk range based on the area in the high risk range storage means, and the financial information of the evaluation target company, the evaluation target company belongs to the risk evaluation matrix The gist is to specify an area and execute an evaluation stage for outputting the evaluation result of the evaluation target company using the area and the conditions defining the high risk range.

  The invention described in claim 9 is bankrupt with financial information storage means for storing cash flow information and profit information consisting of operating cash flow, investment cash flow and financial cash flow for each company for each company. Risk assessment used to assess whether the bankruptcy ratio is high or not in a risk assessment matrix with bankruptcy information storage means that stores corporate bankruptcy information and cash flow information and profit information as two axes Using a company evaluation system comprising control means connected to matrix storage means for storing a matrix and high risk range storage means for storing conditions for defining a high risk range using the area of the risk evaluation matrix, A risk assessment program for a company, wherein the control means includes the financial information. Based on the means for acquiring cash flow information and profit information of each company from the storage means, the acquired cash flow information and profit information, the area to which each company belongs in the risk assessment matrix is specified, the bankrupt company information The evaluation target company belongs to the risk evaluation matrix from the high risk range specifying means for recording the condition defining the high risk range based on the area in the high risk range storage means and the financial information of the evaluation target company. The gist is to specify an area, and to function as an evaluation unit that outputs an evaluation result of the evaluation target company using the area and a condition defining the high risk range stored in the high risk range storage unit.

(Function)
According to the first, eighth, and ninth aspects of the invention, the control means acquires cash flow information and profit information from the financial information storage means. The control means identifies the area to which each company belongs in the risk assessment matrix based on the acquired cash flow information and profit information, and uses the bankruptcy company information to define the conditions that define the high risk range based on the area. Record in range storage means. The control means identifies the area to which the evaluation target company belongs in the risk evaluation matrix from the financial information of the evaluation target company, and outputs the evaluation result of the evaluation target company using this area and the conditions defining the high risk range. . As a result, the company risk is evaluated from the cash flow information and profit information and the information of the company that actually went bankrupt, so that the company risk can be more accurately evaluated.

  According to the invention described in claim 2, the control means obtains the enterprise scale value together with the cash flow information and the profit information from the financial information storage means, and divides each cash flow for each enterprise by the enterprise scale value. A cash flow standard value and a profit standard value obtained by dividing profit for each company by the company scale value are calculated. The control means further generates a risk evaluation matrix in which identification information for identifying the level of bankruptcy is recorded for each area of the matrix composed of the cash flow standard value and the profit standard value and stores it in the matrix storage means. The evaluation means records the cash flow standard value and profit standard value of the evaluation target company, identifies the area to which the evaluation target company belongs in the risk evaluation matrix, and evaluates the evaluation results corresponding to this range. The evaluation result of is output. Thereby, the solvency of the evaluation target company is evaluated from the risk evaluation matrix created using the cash flow standard value and the profit standard value of the actually bankrupt company. Accordingly, it is possible to evaluate a poorly managed company and a company whose management is stable by a simple method.

  According to the invention described in claim 3, the control means obtains cash flow information and profit information for a plurality of periods for the evaluation target company, calculates a cash flow standard value and a profit standard value for a plurality of periods, The range corresponding to the risk evaluation matrix is specified for each of a plurality of settlement periods, and the evaluation result of the evaluation target company is output based on the range of the risk evaluation matrix to which the evaluation target company belongs in the plurality of settlement periods. Thereby, since corporate risk is evaluated using long-term cash flow information and profit information, corporate risk can be evaluated more accurately.

  According to the invention described in claim 4, the control means acquires the financial index of the evaluation target company, and acquires the financial index of the bankrupt company in the area to which the evaluation target company belongs in the risk evaluation matrix. The control means compares the financial index of the evaluation target company with the financial index of the bankrupt company belonging to the area, and outputs an evaluation result corresponding to the comparison result and the specified range. As a result, the corporate risk is evaluated using the financial indicators other than the cash flow information and the profit information, so that the corporate risk can be more accurately evaluated.

  According to the invention described in claim 5, the control means uses the bankruptcy time prediction table to specify the bankruptcy period according to the comparison result between the financial index of the evaluation target company and the financial index of the bankrupt company belonging to the area. The bankruptcy time is included in the evaluation result. Thereby, since the bankruptcy time is predicted based on the financial index, the bankruptcy time can also be evaluated.

  According to the invention described in claim 6, the control means specifies the area to which each company belongs in the risk evaluation matrix from each cash flow information and profit information of each company acquired from the financial information storage means, and this area The weight value associated with is acquired. The control means calculates a rating value for each company using the specified weighting value, and classifies each company arranged in the order of the calculated rating values into a plurality of classes. The control means uses the bankruptcy information acquired from the bankruptcy information storage means to calculate the bankruptcy ratio of companies belonging to each class, and associates the evaluation result of each class according to this bankruptcy ratio with the class identifier, Record in high risk range storage means. The control means obtains a weighting value of the area to which the evaluation target company belongs using each cash flow information and profit information of the evaluation target company, calculates a rating value of the evaluation target company using this weighting value, The class to which the rating value belongs is specified, the evaluation result associated with the class identifier of this class is acquired from the high risk range storage means, and the evaluation result for this evaluation target company is output. As a result, the two-dimensional matrix is weighted from the accounting viewpoint based on cash flow information and profit information, and the evaluation results are identified using actual bankruptcy company information, so that the management and the poorly operated companies are stable. Companies can be evaluated in a simple way.

  According to the seventh aspect of the present invention, the control means uses the cash flow information and profit information of the evaluation target company for a plurality of periods, and the area to which the evaluation target company belongs in the risk evaluation matrix for each of a plurality of settlement periods. And the weighting value of the specified area is specified, and the rating value is calculated using the weighting values specified in a plurality of settlement periods. Thereby, since corporate risk is evaluated using long-term cash flow information and profit information, corporate risk can be evaluated more accurately.

  According to the present invention, the risk for a company can be evaluated by a simple method.

The schematic block diagram explaining the structure of the company evaluation system of 1st Embodiment. It is explanatory drawing explaining the structure of each data, (a) is a financial information storage part, (b) is a bankruptcy information storage part, (c), (d) shows the data memorize | stored in the risk evaluation memory | storage part. The flowchart for demonstrating the process sequence of the matrix preparation process of 1st Embodiment. The flowchart for demonstrating the process sequence of the company evaluation process of 1st Embodiment. It is explanatory drawing in 2nd Embodiment, (a) is a weight value linked | related with each area of a matrix, (b) is a flowchart for demonstrating the process sequence of a company evaluation process.

(First embodiment)
Hereinafter, an embodiment embodying the present invention will be described with reference to FIGS. This embodiment will be described as a company evaluation system for evaluating a company risk such as an investment risk to a company due to a fall in stock prices and a bankruptcy risk of the company. This company evaluation system determines whether or not the company to be evaluated is a risk company (a company whose stock price may drop due to a possibility of going bankrupt or a poor management). Furthermore, in this embodiment, when it is evaluated as a risk company, the bankruptcy time and bankruptcy probability are also evaluated. In the present embodiment, evaluation is limited to listed companies that can acquire financial information including bankruptcy information and cash flow information. Further, in the present embodiment, special industries (for example, finance / insurance) are not included in the evaluation target.

  As shown in FIG. 1, a company evaluation server 20 as a company evaluation system is connected to a client terminal 10 as a user terminal via a network. The client terminal 10 is a computer terminal used by a user (investor) and includes operation means (keyboard, mouse, etc.) and display means (display, etc.). The operation means is used when the user specifies a company whose risk is to be evaluated.

  Furthermore, the company evaluation server 20 is connected to a financial information disclosure server and a bankruptcy information disclosure server (not shown) via the Internet. The financial information disclosure server is, for example, a server such as Nikkei Telecom (registered trademark) or QUICK (registered trademark), and publishes financial information of each company in each settlement period. Moreover, the bankruptcy information disclosure server is, for example, a server of Teikoku Databank (registered trademark), and discloses corporate bankruptcy information.

  On the other hand, the company evaluation server 20 includes a control unit 21, a financial information storage unit 22, a bankruptcy information storage unit 23, and a risk evaluation storage unit 24 as control means. In the present embodiment, the risk evaluation storage unit 24 also functions as a high risk range storage unit.

  The control unit 21 includes a CPU, a RAM, a ROM, and the like (not shown), and performs processing described later (processing including a matrix creation stage as a high risk range identification stage, a company evaluation stage, etc.). And the control part 21 functions as the matrix preparation means 211, the company evaluation means 212, etc. by executing the company evaluation program for this.

  The matrix creation means 211 functions as a high risk range identification means, and executes a process for creating a risk evaluation matrix used for evaluation of bankruptcy risk, investment risk, and the like of a company. The matrix creation means 211 generates a risk evaluation matrix divided into ranges (identification information) to which a bankrupt company and a stable company belong, using the threshold value and determination criterion value of each cash flow (CF). This risk evaluation matrix is composed of a plurality of areas (mass) having the CF type and the determination reference value as axes of the matrix.

  For this reason, the matrix creating means 211 uses the financial information and bankruptcy information to identify the cash flow type (CF type) threshold for operating cash flow (business CF) standard value, investment cash flow ( Investment CF) standard value threshold value, financial cash flow (financial CF) standard value threshold value, and judgment standard value for risk judgment are calculated. Here, the business CF standard value, the investment CF standard value, and the financial CF standard value are values obtained by dividing each CF by a company scale value described later. Further, the matrix creating unit 211 stores an initial value of each CF threshold (CF initial threshold) and an initial value of a determination reference value (determination reference initial value). In the present embodiment, each CF initial threshold value and determination criterion initial value are set to “0”.

Furthermore, the matrix creation means 211 identifies and stores the high risk range to which the bankrupt company belongs in each area of the risk evaluation matrix. Then, the matrix creating unit 211 records a risk evaluation matrix in which each area is associated with risk identification information (low risk basic region or high risk basic region) of the entire area in the risk evaluation storage unit 24. Furthermore, the matrix creation unit 211 records a risk evaluation matrix in which each area is associated with a condition that defines a high risk range in each area in the risk evaluation storage unit 24. In this embodiment, the matrix creation means 211 includes a criterion (risk company ratio) for determining the high risk basic area and a criterion (stable company) for determining the low risk basic area prior to specifying the risk determination range. Data).
The company evaluation unit 212 executes processing for evaluating the risk of the evaluation target company using the risk evaluation matrix and the financial information of each company.

  The financial information storage unit 22 functions as financial information storage means, and stores a financial record 220 relating to the finance of each company, as shown in FIG. The financial information storage unit 22 stores not only a bankrupt company but also a financial record 220 of the bankrupt company. The financial record 220 is recorded when the financial information newly disclosed in the financial information disclosure server is acquired from the financial information disclosure server. The financial record 220 includes data relating to a company identifier, a company name, a closing date, an operating CF, an investment CF, a financial CF, a company size value, a profit amount, and a capital ratio change rate.

Data relating to an identifier for identifying each company is recorded in the company identifier data area.
Data relating to the company name of this company is recorded in the company name data area.
In the settlement period data area, data relating to each settlement period is recorded.
In the sales CF data area, the investment CF data area, and the financial CF data area, data relating to the sales CF, investment CF, and financial CF of the company in the settlement period are recorded.

  In the enterprise scale value data area, data relating to a value for specifying the enterprise scale in the settlement period is recorded. In the present embodiment, the sales amount of the company is used as the company scale value.

In the profit amount data area, data relating to profits in the settlement period is recorded. In the present embodiment, the amount of ordinary profit in a company's fiscal year is used as this profit amount (profit information).
In the capital ratio change rate data area, data relating to the change rate of the capital ratio in this accounting period is recorded.

  On the other hand, the bankruptcy information storage unit 23 functions as bankruptcy information storage means, and stores a bankruptcy record 230 relating to a bankrupt company as shown in FIG. The bankruptcy record 230 is recorded when bankruptcy information is newly acquired in the bankruptcy information disclosure server. The bankruptcy record 230 includes data relating to a company identifier, a company name, a delisting date, a listed market, a business type, and a reason for the decommissioning.

Data relating to an identifier for identifying each company is recorded in the company identifier data area.
Data relating to the company name of this company is recorded in the company name data area.
In the delisting date data area, data relating to the date of delisting by this company is recorded.

  In the listed market data area, data relating to an identifier for identifying the market in which the company is listed is recorded. In the present embodiment, identifiers for specifying “Tokyo Stock Exchange Part 1”, “Tokyo Stock Exchange Part 2”, “Mothers”, and the like are recorded.

In the industry data area, data relating to an identifier for identifying the industry of the company is recorded.
In the abolition reason data area, data on the reason why the company went bankrupt is recorded. In the present embodiment, data for specifying reasons such as “application for rehabilitation proceedings”, “application for civil rehabilitation proceedings”, “application for bankruptcy”, “excess debt”, etc. are recorded.

  The risk evaluation storage unit 24 functions as a matrix storage unit and stores a risk evaluation matrix. In this embodiment, this risk evaluation matrix is recorded when a matrix creation process described later is executed. This risk evaluation matrix is a matrix of the CF type and the vertical relationship of the profit standard value with respect to the criterion value.

  The risk evaluation storage unit 24 stores a type determination table 50 shown in FIG. 2C and a risk area determination table 60 shown in FIG. The type determination table 50 is used to specify the CF type, and the risk area determination table 60 is used to specify the area.

  As shown in FIG. 2 (c), the type determination table 50 includes an area “above” a value above the threshold for the business CF standard value, the investment CF standard value, and the financial CF standard value of each company, It is a table showing a pattern created by combining the area “below”, and classifies companies into eight types of CF. For example, the first type (I) is a pattern type in which the business CF standard value, the investment CF standard value, and the financial CF standard value are all larger than each threshold value. Each threshold value is calculated in the matrix creation process and stored in the risk evaluation storage unit 24.

  As shown in FIG. 2D, the risk area determination table 60 is a two-dimensional matrix with the CF type and the magnitude relationship of the profit standard value with respect to the determination reference value as axes. Each area of the matrix is associated with risk identification information. The risk identification information is either an area where the possibility of bankruptcy is high (high risk basic area), an area where the possibility of bankruptcy is low (low risk basic area), or an area where the possibility of bankruptcy is not clear To identify. Further, the determination reference value is calculated in the matrix creation process and stored in association with the risk area determination table 60.

  FIG. 2D shows a specific example of the risk area determination table 60. This risk area determination table 60 is a matrix in the case of “threshold value of each CF = 0” and “determination reference value = 0”. In this matrix, the “x” area indicates a high-risk basic area, and the “◯” area indicates a low-risk basic area. For example, in this risk evaluation matrix, when the condition that an entire area is in the high risk range is stored, it is the seventh type (VII) and the profit standard value below the criterion value is set. The company is determined to be a high-risk company that is likely to go bankrupt by the next fiscal year.

  Further, the risk assessment storage unit 24 stores a bankruptcy possibility prediction table used for predicting the bankruptcy time. This bankruptcy possibility prediction table is a table for predicting the bankruptcy possibility of a company determined to be a risk company. This bankruptcy possibility prediction table is a table in which the possibility (probability) of bankruptcy is recorded for each range of the capital ratio change rate of each company. In the present embodiment, the range of the capital ratio change rate is set in three stages. Specifically, in the bankruptcy possibility prediction table, “bankruptcy with a probability of 30%” is recorded as the possibility of bankruptcy in a range where the capital ratio increase / decrease rate is the first determination threshold or more. For a range where the capital ratio increase / decrease rate is smaller than the first determination threshold and equal to or greater than the second determination threshold, “bankruptcy with a probability of 60%” is recorded as the possibility of bankruptcy. For the range in which the capital ratio increase / decrease rate is smaller than the second determination threshold, “bankruptcy with a probability of 80%” is recorded as the possibility of bankruptcy.

  The process of the company evaluation server 20 configured as described above will be described with reference to FIGS. Here, the matrix creation process (FIG. 3) and the company evaluation process (FIG. 4) will be described in this order.

(Matrix creation process)
First, the matrix creation process will be described with reference to FIG. This matrix creation process is executed before the company evaluation process. In the present embodiment, the stored investment CF initial threshold and financial CF initial threshold are used as the investment CF threshold and financial CF threshold.

  First, the control unit 21 of the company evaluation server 20 executes financial information acquisition processing (step S1-1). Specifically, the matrix creation unit 211 of the control unit 21 extracts the financial record 220 stored in the financial information storage unit 22. In this case, the matrix creation means 211 extracts the financial record 220 for each industry.

  Next, the control unit 21 of the company evaluation server 20 executes a calculation process of the relative scale of the cash flow (step S1-2). Specifically, the matrix creation unit 211 of the control unit 21 calculates the business CF standard value of each company by dividing the business CF of each financial record 220 by the company scale value. The matrix creation means 211 calculates the investment CF standard value of each company by dividing the investment CF of each financial record 220 by the company size value. The matrix creation means 211 calculates the financial CF standard value of each company by dividing the financial CF of each financial record 220 by the company scale value.

  Next, the control part 21 of the company evaluation server 20 performs the calculation process of the relative scale of profit (step S1-3). Specifically, the matrix creation means 211 of the control unit 21 calculates the profit standard value by dividing the profit amount of each financial record 220 by the company scale value.

  Next, the control unit 21 of the company evaluation server 20 executes bankruptcy information acquisition processing (step S1-4). Specifically, the matrix creation means 211 of the control unit 21 extracts each bankruptcy record 230 stored in the bankruptcy information storage unit 23, and identifies the company identifiers of all the bankrupt companies.

  Next, the control unit 21 of the company evaluation server 20 executes a process of generating a combination of the relative scale of cash flow and the relative scale of profit (step S1-5). Here, the control unit 21 tentatively classifies the CF classification into 8 types using the initial threshold value of each CF standard value stored in advance in the control unit 21. And the control part 21 classify | categorizes into each area of a total of 16 using the criterion initial value. Then, for each “16” area tentatively classified, the total number of companies belonging to the area (total number of companies) is divided by the number of bankrupt companies belonging to that area, and the ratio of bankrupt companies in that area (%) is calculated. calculate. Furthermore, when the calculated bankruptcy company ratio in each area is higher than the risk company ratio, the control unit 21 identifies this area as a high risk basic area. Moreover, the control part 21 specifies this area as a low-risk basic area | region, when the calculated bankruptcy company ratio in each area is lower than a stable company ratio.

  Next, the matrix creation means 211 of the control unit 21 specifies areas determined as the low risk basic region and the high risk basic region above and below the determination criterion initial value in the same CF classification. For example, as shown in FIG. 2 (d), when the second, third, and seventh types (II, III, and VII) are determined as the low risk basic region and the high risk basic region above and below the determination criterion initial value. Identifies these areas. Then, the matrix creation means 211 is a company that satisfies the condition that the profit standard value of the bankrupt company in the specified area is larger than the determination reference value, and the profit standard value of the bankrupt company in this area is equal to or less than the determination reference value. Specify the criterion range that maximizes the number. And the matrix preparation means 211 specifies the value in which the square sum of the difference from the profit standard value of each company becomes the minimum as the determination reference value within this determination reference value range.

  Next, the matrix creation means 211 identifies the areas determined as the low risk basic area and the high risk basic area above and below the business CF standard value. For example, as shown in FIG. 2D, the fourth type (IV) whose business CF standard value is “above” the threshold is identified as the low risk basic area, and the business CF standard value is “below” the threshold. If type 5 (V) and type 6 (VI) are identified as high-risk basic areas, these areas are identified. Then, the matrix creation means 211 has the largest number of companies that satisfy the conditions that are larger than the business CF standard values of the bankrupt companies in the specified areas and are not more than the business CF standard values of the non-bankrupt companies in these areas. The business CF threshold value range is specified. And the matrix preparation means 211 specifies the value in which the square sum of the difference from the business CF standard value of each company becomes the minimum as the business CF threshold value within this business CF threshold value range.

  Next, the matrix creation unit 211 of the control unit 21 uses the determination reference value and the business CF threshold value to repartition the area and reclassify the company. Then, the matrix creating unit 211 calculates each CF standard value that can be specified as a high risk range in each area. Specifically, the matrix creation means 211 of the control unit 21 uses each CF standard value of the bankrupt company belonging to each area to set the range of each CF standard value common to the bankrupt company belonging to that area to the high risk. It is calculated as a condition that defines the range (for example, a determination range for a business CF).

  Next, the control part 21 of the company evaluation server 20 performs the storage process of a high risk area | region (step S1-6). Specifically, the matrix creation unit 211 of the control unit 21 stores the calculated business CF threshold value and the determination reference value in the risk evaluation storage unit 24 in association with the type determination table 50. Furthermore, the matrix creation means 211 associates the conditions for specifying the high risk range in each area with the type determination table 50 and stores them in the risk evaluation storage unit 24.

(Company evaluation process)
Next, company evaluation processing will be described with reference to FIG. This company evaluation process is executed when the company evaluation server 20 receives a risk evaluation request for a company from the client terminal 10. This risk evaluation request includes information (company identifier) for specifying an evaluation target company for risk evaluation.

  First, the control part 21 of the company evaluation server 20 performs the acquisition process of the financial information of an evaluation object company (step S2-1). Specifically, the company evaluation unit 212 of the control unit 21 extracts the financial record 220 in which the company identifier of the evaluation target company is recorded from the financial information storage unit 22. Here, the financial records 220 for the three most recent settlement periods are extracted.

  Next, the control unit 21 of the company evaluation server 20 repeatedly executes a process for specifying a range on the risk evaluation matrix for each settlement period (step S2-2). Specifically, the company evaluation unit 212 of the control unit 21 repeatedly executes the following processing.

  The sales CF standard value, investment CF standard value, and financial CF standard value of this company are calculated by dividing the business CF, investment CF, and financial CF of the financial record 220 in the accounting period to be processed by the company scale value, respectively. Furthermore, the company evaluation means 212 calculates the profit standard value of this company by dividing the profit amount of the financial record 220 by the company scale value.

  The company evaluation means 212 compares the business CF standard value and profit standard value of this company with the business CF threshold value and judgment standard value stored in the risk evaluation storage unit 24, and the investment CF standard value and financial CF standard value. The investment CF initial threshold value and the financial CF initial threshold value are compared with each other to identify which area this company belongs to. Further, the company evaluation means 212 compares the CF standard value of this company with the conditions that define the high risk range (for example, the range of business CF, etc.) in the area identified as belonging to this company. It is determined whether or not it is included in the high risk range of this area.

  Then, the company evaluation unit 212 stores the determination result (“included in high risk range” or “not included”) in association with the time (financial period). The above processing is executed for the latest three closing periods by sequentially changing the processing closing period.

  Next, the control part 21 of the company evaluation server 20 performs a three-period comparative analysis process (step S2-3). Here, the company evaluation means 212 of the control unit 21 counts the number of times that this company is determined to be included in the high risk range, using the determination results for the three specified periods.

  Next, the control part 21 of the company evaluation server 20 performs the determination process whether it is a risk company (step S2-4). Specifically, the company evaluation unit 212 of the control unit 21 determines that the company to be evaluated is a risk company when the number of times the evaluation target company falls within the high risk range is one or more. On the other hand, if it is not included in the high risk range even once, it is determined that it is not a risk company (ie, a stable company).

  Here, when it determines with it not being a risk company (in the case of "NO" in step S2-4), the control part 21 of the company evaluation server 20 skips the process of step S2-5-S2-8.

  On the other hand, when it determines with a risk company (in the case of "YES" in step S2-4), the control part 21 of the company evaluation server 20 performs the acquisition process of the financial index of an evaluation object company (step S2-5). ). Specifically, the company evaluation unit 212 of the control unit 21 acquires the capital ratio increase / decrease rate of the financial record 220 of the evaluation target company.

  Next, the control part 21 of the company evaluation server 20 performs the acquisition process of the financial index of the bankrupt company which belongs to the same matrix (step S2-6). Specifically, the company evaluation means 212 of the control unit 21 extracts each bankruptcy record 230 recorded in the bankruptcy information storage unit 23, and uses the financial record 220 in which the company identifier of the bankruptcy record 230 is recorded as the financial information. Extracted from the storage unit 22. Next, the company evaluation means 212 calculates each CF standard value and profit standard value of the bankrupt company using the business CF, investment CF, financial CF, profit amount, and company scale value of each financial record 220. Next, the company evaluation means 212 specifies the CF type of each bankrupt company using the calculated CF standard value and the type determination table 50 including the threshold value of each CF. Then, the company evaluation unit 212 uses the identified CF type, the profit standard value of the bankrupt company, and the risk area determination table 60 including the determination reference value to specify the area to which each bankrupt company belongs in the matrix. .

  Then, the company evaluation unit 212 compares the area determined to belong to the evaluation target company with the area to which each bankrupt company belongs, and identifies the company identifier of the bankrupt company in the area to which the evaluation target company belongs. Then, the company evaluation unit 212 extracts the capital ratio increase / decrease rate of the financial record 220 in which these company identifiers are recorded from the financial information storage unit 22.

  Next, the control part 21 of the company evaluation server 20 performs the calculation process of the bankruptcy time determination threshold value using the financial index of the bankrupt company (step S2-7). Specifically, the company evaluation means 212 of the control unit 21 arranges the capital ratio increase / decrease rate of the entire company in descending order in each area. In general, the rate of increase / decrease in the capital ratio of bankrupt companies is lower than the rate of increase / decrease in capital ratios of companies that have not gone bankrupt. Therefore, the company evaluation means 212 specifies the capital ratio increase / decrease rate when the ratio of the number of bankrupt companies in each area exceeds 60% of the entire area as the first determination threshold value. The company evaluation means 212 identifies the capital ratio increase / decrease rate when the ratio of the number of bankrupt companies in each area exceeds 80% of the entire area as the second determination threshold value. In addition, in order to specify the first determination threshold and the second determination threshold, the company evaluation unit 212 stores the processing program and the ratio of the number of bankrupt companies.

  Next, the control part 21 of the company evaluation server 20 performs a bankruptcy time prediction process based on a comparison result (step S2-8). Specifically, the company evaluation means 212 of the control unit 21 predicts “bankruptcy within three years” when the latest settlement period (one period) does not belong to the high risk range. In addition, the company evaluation unit 212 predicts “bankruptcy within one year” when the latest settlement period (first period) belongs to the high risk range. In this case, the company evaluation means 212 compares the capital ratio increase / decrease rate in the most recent closing period (first period) of this company with the first determination threshold and the second determination threshold in the bankruptcy possibility prediction table, and Identify the possibility (probability) of bankruptcy.

  Next, the control unit 21 of the company evaluation server 20 executes a risk evaluation result output process (step S2-9). Specifically, when the company evaluation unit 212 of the control unit 21 determines that the company is not a risk company (in the case of “NO” in step S2-4), a message “Stable company, low risk”. Is transmitted to the client terminal 10. When it is determined that the company is a risk company (in the case of “YES” in step S2-4), the company evaluation unit 212 determines the bankruptcy time and the possibility of bankruptcy specified in the bankruptcy time prediction process (step S2-8). It transmits to the client terminal 10.

According to this embodiment, the following effects can be obtained.
(1) In the present embodiment, the control unit 21 of the company evaluation server 20 generates a combination of a relative scale of CF and a relative scale of profit (step S1-5), and stores a risk area (step S1-5). S1-6) is executed. Thereby, the control part 21 produces | generates a risk evaluation matrix, and is linked | related with risk identification information with respect to each area | region in each area of this matrix, and memorize | stores it in the risk evaluation memory | storage part 24. FIG. The control unit 21 executes the range specifying process on the risk evaluation matrix (step S2-2) using the financial information of the evaluation target company, and executes the determination process as to whether or not it is a risk company (step S2-4). The risk evaluation result output process (step S2-9) is executed. For this reason, the solvency of the evaluation target company is evaluated from a risk evaluation matrix created by using each cash flow standard value and profit standard value of the actually bankrupt company. Accordingly, it is possible to evaluate a poorly managed company and a company whose management is stable by a simple method.

  (2) In the present embodiment, the control unit 21 of the company evaluation server 20 uses the financial information for three periods of the evaluation target company to specify the range on the risk evaluation matrix for each settlement period (step S2-2). ) The third period comparative analysis process (step S2-3) is executed. And the control part 21 determines with a risk company, when at least 1 of the area | region for 3 periods is a high risk range (step S2-4). For this reason, since corporate risk is evaluated using long-term CF information and profit information, it is possible to evaluate corporate risk more accurately.

  (3) In this embodiment, when the control unit 21 of the company evaluation server 20 determines that the company is a risk company (“YES” in step S2-4), the bankruptcy belonging to the same matrix as the financial index of the evaluation target company Comparison processing with the financial index of the company is performed (step S2-7), and bankruptcy time prediction processing is executed based on the comparison result (step S2-8). For this reason, since the company evaluation is also performed using the financial index, the company risk can be determined more accurately including the possibility of bankruptcy.

(Second Embodiment)
Next, a second embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to FIG. In the present embodiment, the same parts as those in the first embodiment are denoted by the same reference numerals, and detailed description thereof is omitted.

The company evaluation server 20 of this embodiment includes a control unit 21, a financial information storage unit 22, a bankruptcy information storage unit 23, a risk evaluation storage unit 24, and a class information storage unit.
The control unit 21 according to the present embodiment performs processing described later (processing including a rating value calculation step, a class evaluation step as an evaluation range specifying step, a company evaluation step, and the like). By executing the company evaluation program for this purpose, the control unit 21 functions as a rating value calculation means, a class evaluation means as an evaluation range specifying means, a company evaluation means, and the like.

  The rating value calculation means executes a process of calculating a rating value of each company using a weighting value associated with each area of the risk evaluation matrix. For this reason, the rating value calculation means stores a rating value calculation formula for calculating a rating value using a weighting value as a function. In the present embodiment, a rating value calculation formula for summing up the weight values for the latest three past periods is stored.

The class evaluation unit classifies the classes in the order of the rating values, evaluates the possibility of bankruptcy for each class, and executes a process of recording in the class information storage unit. In order to evaluate the possibility of bankruptcy for a class, the class evaluation means includes a high-risk company ratio (for example, “50%”) for determining a high-risk company and a low-risk company ratio for determining a low-risk company. (For example, “0%”) is stored.
The company evaluation means executes a process for evaluating the risk of the evaluation target company using the company's financial information, the weight value of the risk evaluation matrix, and the class evaluation result.

  In addition, the risk evaluation storage unit 24 of the present embodiment stores a weighting table 70 in which a weighting value is associated with each area (mass) of the two-dimensional matrix. This two-dimensional matrix is centered on the combination of the CF type combining the business CF, investment CF and financial CF of each company, and the increase / decrease in profit amount. In the first embodiment, the CF type is specified by the business CF standard value, the investment CF standard value, and the financial CF standard value. However, in this embodiment, the business CF, the investment CF, and the financial CF are used. It is specified by setting the threshold value to “0”.

Moreover, the weighting value is given according to the following conditions.
・ As a general rule, the weighting value of each area (area of type 1 (I) and type 8 (VIII)) where the corresponding company is rare is set to “0”. However, in the case of the first type and the profit amount is positive (increase), the possibility of bankruptcy is lower than the others, so the weighting value is set to “0.5”. Further, in the case of the eighth type and the profit amount is minus (decrease), the possibility of bankruptcy is higher than others, so the weighting value is set to “−0.5”.

  ・ As a general rule, set the weighting value of each area where the possibility of bankruptcy is low (the area of “◯” in FIG. 2D) to “+1.0”. Furthermore, when the operating CF or profit amount is negative (decrease), the possibility of bankruptcy increases, so “0.8” is multiplied. Further, when the investment CF is positive (increased), the possibility of bankruptcy is slightly increased, so “0.9” is multiplied.

  The weight value of each area (excluding the first type (I), “x” area in FIG. 2D) with high possibility of bankruptcy is set to “−1.0” in principle. Further, when the operating CF or the profit amount is positive (increase), the possibility of bankruptcy is reduced, so “0.8” is multiplied. Furthermore, when the investment CF is negative (decreased), the possibility of bankruptcy is slightly reduced, so “0.9” is multiplied.

As shown in FIG. 5A, weighting values corresponding to each area of the two-dimensional matrix set according to the above conditions are stored in the risk evaluation storage unit 24.
The class information storage unit functions as a high risk range storage unit that stores the evaluation result of the class. In this class information storage unit, a class identifier, a rating value classified into each class, and a bankruptcy possibility evaluation are stored in association with each other. Class identifiers include, for example, AAA rating, AA rating, A rating, BBB rating, BB rating, B rating, CCC rating, CC rating and below. The rating value classified into each class is, for example, “3.00” for the AAA rating, “2.90 to 2.70” for the AA rating, and “2.62 to 2.2. 44 ”or“ 2.40 to 1.30 ”for the BBB rating. Furthermore, in the present embodiment, “low risk”, “medium risk”, and “high risk” are used as the bankruptcy possibility evaluation.

Next, processing of the company evaluation server 20 configured as described above will be described. Here, the class evaluation process (FIG. 5B) and the company evaluation process will be described in this order.
First, the class evaluation process will be described with reference to FIG. In this class evaluation process, the range of classes to be classified is determined, and the possibility of bankruptcy of companies belonging to each class is evaluated.

In this class evaluation process, the control unit 21 of the company evaluation server 20 first executes the following process repeatedly for each company.
First, the control unit 21 of the company evaluation server 20 executes financial information acquisition processing for each company (step S3-1). Specifically, the class evaluation unit of the control unit 21 extracts the financial record 220 stored in the financial information storage unit 22. In this case, the matrix creation means 211 extracts the financial record 220 for each industry.

  Next, the control unit 21 of the company evaluation server 20 repeatedly executes weight value acquisition processing using a two-dimensional matrix for each settlement period (step S3-2). Specifically, the rating value calculation means of the control unit 21 determines whether the business CF, the investment CF, and the financial CF of each financial record 220 are positive or negative, and identifies the corresponding CF type. Next, the rating value calculation means determines whether the profit amount of the financial record 220 is positive or negative, and specifies an area on the two-dimensional matrix shown in FIG. Then, the rating value calculation unit acquires the weighted value of the identified area from the risk evaluation storage unit 24. The above processing is calculated for each settlement period.

  Next, the control unit 21 of the company evaluation server 20 executes a rating value calculation process for each company (step S3-3). Specifically, the rating value calculation means of the control unit 21 calculates the rating value by substituting the weighting value acquired in step S3-2 into the rating value calculation formula. The above processing is repeated for each company.

  And the control part 21 of the company evaluation server 20 performs the bankruptcy possibility evaluation process about a rating class (step S3-4). Specifically, the class evaluation unit of the control unit 21 sorts the company identifiers of the companies in the order of the calculated weight values. Next, the class evaluation unit extracts each bankruptcy record 230 stored in the bankruptcy information storage unit 23, and identifies the company identifiers of all the companies that went bankrupt. Then, the class evaluation means divides the number of bankrupt companies belonging to the class by the total number of companies belonging to each class (total number of companies), and calculates the bankrupt company ratio (%) in the area.

Here, the bankruptcy ratio tends to increase as the rating value decreases. Therefore, the class evaluation means of the control unit 21 assigns a “low risk” bankruptcy possibility evaluation to a class in which the bankruptcy company ratio is continuously below the low risk company ratio from the class with the highest rating value. In addition, the class evaluation means assigns “high risk” as the bankruptcy possibility evaluation for the classes having the ratio of the high risk company or higher continuously from the class with the lowest rating value. The class evaluation means assigns “medium risk” as the bankruptcy possibility evaluation for other classes.
The class evaluation unit associates each class identifier, the rating value belonging to each class, and the assigned bankruptcy possibility evaluation, and records them in the class information storage unit.

(Company evaluation process)
Next, company evaluation processing will be described. This company evaluation process is executed when the company evaluation server 20 receives a risk evaluation request for a company from the client terminal 10 as in the first embodiment.

First, the control part 21 of the company evaluation server 20 performs the acquisition process of the financial information of an evaluation object company similarly to step S2-1 of 1st Embodiment.
Next, the control unit 21 of the company evaluation server 20 executes a rating value calculation process for the evaluation target company. Specifically, in the rating value calculation process of the control unit 21, the weight value acquisition process using the two-dimensional matrix is repeatedly executed for each settlement period, as in step S3-2. And a rating value calculation process performs the calculation process of the rating value of an evaluation object company similarly to step S3-3.

  Next, the control unit 21 of the company evaluation server 20 executes an output process of the risk evaluation result of the evaluation target company. Specifically, the company evaluation unit of the control unit 21 acquires the bankruptcy possibility evaluation of the class including the calculated rating value. Then, the company evaluation means transmits a message corresponding to the bankruptcy possibility evaluation to the client terminal 10. In this embodiment, when the bankruptcy possibility assessment is “low risk”, it is “stable company and the risk is low”, and when the bankruptcy possibility assessment is “medium risk”, it cannot be said that the risk is small and high. When the bankruptcy possibility evaluation is “high risk”, each message indicating “high risk” is transmitted.

According to this embodiment, the following effects can be obtained.
(4) In the present embodiment, the control unit 21 of the company evaluation server 20 acquires the CF and profit amount of each company, specifies an area corresponding to a two-dimensional matrix of combinations of each CF and profit amount, Get the weight value associated with the area. The control unit 21 calculates a rating value using the acquired weighting value, and performs class classification using the rating value. The control unit 21 calculates the bankruptcy company ratio in the classified class, assigns a bankruptcy possibility evaluation of each class based on the bankruptcy company ratio, and records it in the class information storage unit. The control unit 21 acquires financial information of the evaluation target company, specifies an area on the two-dimensional matrix to which the evaluation target company corresponds based on the financial information, and acquires a weight value associated with the area. The control unit 21 calculates a rating value using the weighting value of the evaluation target company, acquires a bankruptcy possibility evaluation of a class to which the rating value belongs, and transmits a message corresponding to the bankruptcy possibility evaluation to the client terminal 10. To do. For this reason, the payment ability of the evaluation target company is evaluated using a two-dimensional matrix created using actual bankruptcy information with each cash flow and profit as elements. Accordingly, it is possible to evaluate a poorly managed company and a company whose management is stable by a simple method. Further, since the company risk is evaluated using the long-term CF information and profit information for the latest three periods, the company risk can be evaluated more accurately.

  (5) In the present embodiment, the two-dimensional matrix of the CF and the profit amount changes the weight value in an area where the corresponding company is rare, an area where the possibility of bankruptcy is low, and an area where the possibility of bankruptcy is high. Further, in the area where the possibility of bankruptcy is low, when the operating CF or profit amount is negative or the investment CF is positive, weighting is set so that the possibility of bankruptcy is slightly increased. Also, in an area where the possibility of bankruptcy is high, when the operating CF or profit amount is positive or the investment CF is negative, weighting is set so that the possibility of bankruptcy is slightly reduced. Furthermore, the weighting value based on the investment CF is set to be higher than the weighting value based on the business CF or the profit amount. As a result, the company evaluation can be performed using numerical values weighted from the accounting viewpoint, and therefore the company evaluation can be performed more accurately by a simple method.

Moreover, you may change the said embodiment as follows.
In the matrix creation process of the first embodiment, the control unit 21 of the company evaluation server 20 uses sales as the company scale value. The company scale value is not limited to sales, but may be other company scale values (for example, total assets and capital) as long as the scale of each company in the settlement period can be specified.

  In the company evaluation process of the first embodiment, the control unit 21 of the company evaluation server 20 uses the capital ratio increase / decrease rate as a financial index to predict the time and possibility of bankruptcy (step S2- 5-S2-8). Financial indicators used for predicting the timing and likelihood of bankruptcy are not limited to the capital ratio change rate, but other financial indicators (eg, capital ratio, cash and cash equivalents change rate) Good.

  In the company evaluation process of the first embodiment, the control unit 21 of the company evaluation server 20 includes the number of bankrupt companies in the case where the capital ratio increase / decrease rate is arranged in descending order in the area to which the company to be evaluated belongs. The 1st and 2nd determination threshold value of the possibility of bankruptcy was specified according to the ratio. The determination threshold is not limited to these, and a value calculated using the extracted financial record 220 (for example, an average value or a minimum capital ratio increase / decrease rate of a bankrupt company) may be used.

  In the company evaluation process of the first embodiment, the control unit 21 of the company evaluation server 20 specifies that the evaluation target company is a risk company when the number of times the evaluation target company falls within the high risk range is one or more. (Step S2-4). In this case, not only the number of times belonging to the high risk range but also the settlement period pattern belonging to the high risk range may be used to specify whether or not the company is a risk company. For example, in the case of a pattern that belongs to the low-risk range in the most recent period except for the most recent period in the three periods, it may be determined that the company is not a risk company. Specifically, the control unit 21 stores a risk second determination table for determining whether or not the company is a risk company for the combination pattern of the determination results of the high risk range in the latest first period, second period, and third period. And the control part 21 may determine whether an evaluation object company is a risk company using the risk 2nd determination table in the determination process (step S2-4) of whether it is a risk company. Further, the bankruptcy time prediction table may be a table that specifies the bankruptcy time and the probability in association with the number of high risk ranges that are equal to or less than the bankruptcy time determination threshold and the time of the high risk range. In these cases, risk companies can be more accurately evaluated from the time series financial status of each company.

  In the matrix creation process of the first embodiment, the business CF threshold value and the determination reference value are specified, and the initial values are used as they are for the investment CF threshold value and the financial CF threshold value, and each area is repartitioned. The generation process of the combination of the relative size of cash flow and the relative size of profit is not limited to this, and other methods may be used. For example, all of the business CF threshold, the investment CF threshold, the financial CF threshold, and the determination reference value may be calculated. Specifically, the matrix creation unit 211 of the control unit 21 uses each CF standard value or profit standard value of a company belonging to each area provisionally classified using the initial value, as in the above embodiment, A threshold value and a criterion value are specified.

  Then, the matrix creating means 211 specifies an investment CF threshold range in which the number of companies satisfying the condition that is larger than each investment CF standard value of a bankrupt company and less than or equal to each investment CF standard value of a non-bankrupt company is maximum. In this investment CF threshold value range, a value that minimizes the sum of squares of differences from the investment CF standard value of each company is specified as the investment CF threshold value. Further, the matrix creation means 211 specifies a financial CF threshold range in which the number of companies that satisfy the condition that is larger than each financial CF standard value of a bankrupt company and less than or equal to each financial CF standard value of a non-bankrupt company is maximum. In this financial CF threshold value range, a value that minimizes the sum of squares of differences from the financial CF standard value of each company is specified as the financial CF threshold value. Then, using the newly specified CF thresholds and determination reference values, the 16 areas are repartitioned, the companies are reclassified, and a high risk basic area or a low risk basic area is specified for each area. In this case, when the area to which the determination target company belongs is a high risk basic area, the company evaluation unit 212 may determine that all companies belonging to this area are in the high risk range. As a result, it is possible to determine whether or not the company to be determined is a high-risk company because it is possible to determine whether or not it is included in the high-risk range simply by determining the area to which it belongs. .

  In the first embodiment, the matrix creation unit 211 of the control unit 21 classifies using each CF standard value or profit standard value, and then uses each CF standard value in each classified area to generate a high risk. The range was specified. The value relating to the CF used for specifying the high risk range in each area is not limited to this. For example, year-end CF balance increase / decrease rate (the value of cash flow at the end of the most recent fiscal year (total of operating CF, financial CF and investment CF), the rate of change relative to the value of cash flow at the end of the previous fiscal year) May be used to identify a high risk range within each area. Moreover, in the said embodiment, although the high risk range was identified in each area | region, it may replace with this and may identify a high risk range only about the area | region identified as the high risk basic area. In this case, since the high risk range is not specified for the area determined as the low risk basic area, it can be more easily determined whether the determination target company is a high risk company.

-In the company evaluation process of the first embodiment, the control unit 21 of the company evaluation server 20 is in the high-risk area in the last period of the company identified as the risk company in the bankruptcy time prediction process (step S2-8). The bankruptcy time was predicted based on whether or not it belongs to the company, and the possibility of bankruptcy was predicted based on the capital ratio change rate of the last period. The bankruptcy time and the possibility of bankruptcy may be specified by using information other than information on the latest settlement period (first period). For example, you may create the table which specifies a bankruptcy time and a bankruptcy probability by the combination of the capital ratio increase / decrease rate for the latest three periods. In these cases, risk companies can be more accurately evaluated from the time series financial status of each company.
In the first embodiment, the control unit 21 of the company evaluation server 20 performs the matrix creation process every year, but the matrix creation process may be performed every quarter.

  -In the second embodiment, in the area where the possibility of bankruptcy is low in the two-dimensional matrix, if the operating CF or profit is negative, it is multiplied by "0.8" and the investment CF is positive Was multiplied by "0.9". In areas where there is a high probability of bankruptcy in the two-dimensional matrix, if the operating CF or profit amount is positive, it is multiplied by “0.8”, and if the investment CF is negative, it is “0.9”. Multiplied. Specific values of these weighting values are not limited to these. For example, the correlation between each CF and profit information and the bankruptcy rate may be calculated using past data, and a weighting value may be set corresponding to this correlation.

  In the second embodiment, the control unit 21 stores a rating value calculation formula for adding the weight values for the latest three periods. The rating value calculation formula is not limited to the formula for adding weight values. For example, it is also possible to use an arithmetic expression that adds the weighting ratios of the most recent weighting values, an arithmetic expression that multiplies the weighting values, or the like. Further, although the CF information and profit information for the latest three periods are used, the CF information and profit information to be used are not limited to this period, and a longer period or a shorter period may be used.

In the second embodiment, as the two-dimensional matrix in which the weight values are associated, a two-dimensional matrix having each CF and the profit amount as two axes is used. The variables of the axes of the two-dimensional matrix are not limited to these. As in the first embodiment, the cash flow standard value obtained by dividing each cash flow by the company scale value and the profit for each company are described above. A two-dimensional matrix having the profit standard value divided by the company scale value as two axes may be used.
In the second embodiment, AAA class, AA class,..., CC class or lower are used as class identifiers. The class identifier is not limited to this, and other class identifiers (class identifiers such as “excellent”, “good”,..., “Impossible”, class identifiers such as Z1, Z2,..., Z10) may be used.

  In the matrix creation process of each embodiment described above, the control unit 21 of the company evaluation server 20 uses the amount of ordinary profit as the amount of profit (profit information). The amount of profit is not limited to ordinary profit, but may be other profit amount (for example, operating profit, profit for the current period, etc.) as long as it is the profit amount of each company in the fiscal year end.

In each of the above embodiments, the control unit 21 of the company evaluation server 20 performs evaluation only for listed companies that can acquire financial information including bankruptcy information and cash flow. Companies to be evaluated are not limited to listed companies, and may be unlisted companies if financial information including bankruptcy information and cash flows can be obtained.
In each of the above embodiments, the CF information used by the control unit 21 of the company evaluation server 20 for risk evaluation about the company is acquired when it is newly released from the financial information disclosure server. CF information can be created from a multi-period balance sheet and income statement. Therefore, when the CF information of the company cannot be acquired, the control unit 21 of the company evaluation server 20 acquires the profit / loss statement information of the company and the balance sheet information of a plurality of periods, and based on these information, the publicly known information You may make it produce | generate CF information created with the method. As a result, risk evaluation can be performed even when corporate CF information cannot be acquired.

  DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 10 ... Client terminal, 20 ... Company evaluation server, 21 ... Control part, 22 ... Financial information storage part, 23 ... Bankruptcy information storage part, 24 ... Risk evaluation storage part, 211 ... Matrix preparation means, 212 ... Company evaluation means, 220 … Financial records, 230… bankruptcy records.

Claims (9)

Financial information storage means for storing cash flow information and profit information consisting of operating cash flow, investment cash flow, financial cash flow for each company,
Bankruptcy information storage means for storing bankruptcy company information about a bankrupt company,
In a risk evaluation matrix with cash flow information and profit information as two axes, matrix storage means for storing a risk evaluation matrix used for evaluating whether the bankruptcy ratio is in a high risk range;
A system for performing risk assessment of a company, comprising control means connected to high risk range storage means for storing conditions for defining a high risk range using an area of the risk assessment matrix,
The control means is
Means for acquiring cash flow information and profit information of each company from the financial information storage means;
Based on the acquired cash flow information and profit information, the area to which each company belongs is specified in the risk evaluation matrix, and the conditions for defining the high risk range based on the area are specified using the bankrupt company information. A high-risk range identifying means for recording in the storage means;
An evaluation that specifies an area to which the evaluation target company belongs in the risk evaluation matrix from the financial information of the evaluation target company, and outputs an evaluation result of the evaluation target company using this area and a condition that defines the high risk range An enterprise evaluation system characterized by comprising means. The financial information storage means stores, for each company, a company scale value at the end of the fiscal year,
The control means is
A company scale value is obtained together with cash flow information and profit information from the financial information storage means, and the cash flow standard value obtained by dividing each cash flow by the company scale value for each company and the profit for each company. A means for calculating a profit standard value divided by the scale value;
The high risk range specifying means further generates a risk evaluation matrix in which identification information for identifying the level of bankruptcy ratio is recorded for each area of the matrix composed of the cash flow standard value and the profit standard value. Recorded in the matrix storage means,
The evaluation means calculates a cash flow standard value and a profit standard value of an evaluation target company, specifies an area to which the evaluation target company belongs in the risk evaluation matrix, and from a condition that defines a high risk range of the area The company evaluation system according to claim 1, wherein an evaluation result of the evaluation target company is output. The evaluation means includes
Obtain cash flow information and profit information for multiple periods for the company to be evaluated,
Calculate the cash flow standard value and profit standard value for multiple periods, identify the range corresponding to the risk assessment matrix for each of the multiple fiscal periods,
3. The company evaluation system according to claim 2, wherein an evaluation result of the evaluation target company is output based on a range of a risk evaluation matrix to which the evaluation target company belongs in a plurality of settlement periods. The financial information storage means stores a financial index,
The control means includes
Means for obtaining a financial index of the evaluation target company;
In the risk assessment matrix, further comprising means for obtaining a financial index of a bankrupt company in the area to which the company to be evaluated belongs,
The evaluation means calculates the comparison result obtained by comparing the financial indicators bankrupt company belonging to financial indicators before Symbol areas of the evaluation target company, and outputs the evaluation result according to the above-given ranges specified as the comparison result The company evaluation system according to claim 2 or 3, wherein The bankruptcy time prediction table for predicting the bankruptcy time from the bankruptcy ratio in each area of the risk assessment matrix and the comparison result of the financial index,
The evaluation means uses the bankruptcy time prediction table to identify the bankruptcy time according to the comparison result between the financial index of the evaluation target company and the financial index of the bankrupt company belonging to the area, and The company evaluation system according to claim 4, wherein the company evaluation system is included in an evaluation result. The high risk range storage means stores the evaluation result of the company belonging to the class specified by the class identifier in association with the class identifier ,
The matrix storage means stores weight values associated with each area of the risk assessment matrix,
The control means is
From each cash flow information and profit information of each company obtained from the financial information storage means, the area to which each company belongs in the risk assessment matrix, and a weight value associated with this area,
Means for calculating a rating value for each company using the identified weighting value;
Means for classifying the companies arranged in the order of the calculated rating values into a plurality of classes;
The bankruptcy company information obtained from the bankruptcy information storage means is used to calculate the bankruptcy ratio of companies belonging to each class, and the evaluation result of each class corresponding to the bankruptcy ratio is associated with a class identifier, and the high risk Means for recording in the range storage means,
The evaluation means includes
Using each cash flow information and profit information of the evaluation target company, obtain the weighting value of the area to which this evaluation target company belongs,
Use this weighted value to calculate the rating value of the company being evaluated,
Identify the class to which this rating belongs,
2. The company evaluation system according to claim 1, wherein an evaluation result associated with a class identifier of the class is acquired from the high risk range storage means, and an evaluation result for the evaluation target company is output. The evaluation means includes
Using the cash flow information and profit information of a plurality of periods of the evaluation target company, for each of the plurality of settlement periods, identify the area to which the evaluation target company belongs in the risk evaluation matrix, and specify a weighting value of the specified area Identify,
7. The company evaluation system according to claim 6, wherein a rating value is calculated using weighting values specified in a plurality of settlement periods. Financial information storage means for storing cash flow information and profit information consisting of operating cash flow, investment cash flow, financial cash flow for each company,
Bankruptcy information storage means for storing bankruptcy company information about a bankrupt company,
In a risk evaluation matrix with cash flow information and profit information as two axes, matrix storage means for storing a risk evaluation matrix used for evaluating whether the bankruptcy ratio is in a high risk range;
This is a method for evaluating a company risk using a company evaluation system having a control means connected to a high risk range storage means for storing conditions for defining a high risk range using the areas of the risk evaluation matrix. And
The control means is
Obtaining cash flow information and profit information of each company from the financial information storage means;
Based on the acquired cash flow information and profit information, the area to which each company belongs is specified in the risk evaluation matrix, and the conditions for defining the high risk range based on the area are specified using the bankrupt company information. A high risk range identification stage to be recorded in the storage means;
An evaluation that specifies an area to which the evaluation target company belongs in the risk evaluation matrix from the financial information of the evaluation target company, and outputs an evaluation result of the evaluation target company using this area and a condition that defines the high risk range A company evaluation method characterized by performing the steps. Financial information storage means for storing cash flow information and profit information consisting of operating cash flow, investment cash flow, financial cash flow for each company,
Bankruptcy information storage means for storing bankruptcy company information about a bankrupt company,
In a risk evaluation matrix with cash flow information and profit information as two axes, matrix storage means for storing a risk evaluation matrix used for evaluating whether the bankruptcy ratio is in a high risk range;
A program for evaluating a company risk using a company evaluation system having a control means connected to a high risk range storage means for storing conditions for defining a high risk range using the areas of the risk evaluation matrix. And
The control means;
Means for acquiring cash flow information and profit information of each company from the financial information storage means;
Based on the acquired cash flow information and profit information, the area to which each company belongs is specified in the risk evaluation matrix, and the conditions for defining the high risk range based on the area are specified using the bankrupt company information. From the high risk range specifying means recorded in the storage means and the financial information of the evaluation target company, the area to which the evaluation target company belongs in the risk evaluation matrix is specified, and this area and the high risk stored in the high risk range storage means A company evaluation program that functions as an evaluation means for outputting an evaluation result of an evaluation target company using a condition that defines a range.

Images