JP5308560B1 - Method and apparatus for predicting power generation in solar power generation - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a power generation amount prediction method in solar power generation capable of predicting the power generation amount in solar power generation with high accuracy without actually measuring sunshine intensity (amount of solar radiation), temperature and power generation amount in real time. .
SOLUTION: A power generation efficiency pattern unique to the solar power generation device 60 and an approximate expression for displaying the power generation efficiency pattern are obtained from the power generation results of the solar power generation device 60, and the solar power generation device 60 is installed at the place where the solar power generation device 60 is installed. The total global solar radiation amount S from the sunrise to the sunset is obtained, and the cumulative global solar radiation amount X is calculated on the assumption that the hourly global solar radiation amount S is accumulated until power generation. Then, the power generation efficiency Y of the solar power generation device 60 is obtained from the accumulated total solar radiation amount X using an approximate expression representing the power generation efficiency pattern of the solar power generation device 60. After correcting the power generation efficiency Y thus obtained with the predicted temperature at the time of power generation, hourly power generation (Z) = maximum output (Mx) × hourly total solar radiation (S) × hourly power generation efficiency (Y0) ) To obtain the hourly power generation (Z).
[Selection] Figure 3

Description

  The present invention relates to a method and an apparatus for predicting the amount of power generation in solar power generation. More specifically, the present invention relates to a method for predicting the amount of power generation in solar power generation with high accuracy without actually measuring sunshine intensity (amount of solar radiation), temperature, and power generation amount. The present invention relates to a power generation amount prediction method and apparatus for solar power generation.

  In recent years, development of power generation technology using natural energy has been promoted in various fields from the viewpoint that rapid increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has caused global warming and abnormal weather. Photovoltaic power generation is one of them, and directly converts solar energy irradiated to the solar cell panel into electrical energy by using the photovoltaic effect of the solar cell panel. Photovoltaic power generation is becoming more widely used in schools, factories, general households, etc. because it is more cost effective than other power generation technologies using natural energy.

  By the way, one problem in solar power generation is that the amount of power generation depends on the weather and is unstable. In the future, when solar power generation becomes widespread and some of it flows into the main power line by selling power, etc., the instability of the power generation amount of solar power generation becomes a bigger problem. For this reason, many power generation amount prediction methods have been proposed.

  For example, in the “solar power generation amount prediction system” described in Patent Document 1 (Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2011-142790), the temperature, the solar radiation forecast value and the actual value for each region, and the power amount data of the power system are stored. Of the collected data, the temperature, the solar radiation actual value, and the electric energy at approximately the same time for a plurality of different days are used as the explanatory variables, and the electric energy as the objective variable. The regression coefficient is calculated for each region or regions. A predicted value of the amount of photovoltaic power generation is calculated for each region from the calculated regression coefficient for each region and the predicted amount of solar radiation.

  Patent Document 2 (Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2011-087372) “Power Generation Prediction Device for Solar Power Generation System” measures the current power generation amount of the solar power generation system, and present solar radiation on the current inclined surface based on the measured value. After calculating the amount, the estimated shielding rate is calculated from the amount of solar radiation on the current inclined surface. Then, the power generation amount is predicted based on the estimated shielding rate and the weather statistical data in the area where the photovoltaic power generation system is installed.

  In the “photovoltaic power generation amount estimation device” of Patent Document 3 (Japanese Patent Laid-Open No. 2011-163974), past power generation amount information by existing solar power generation facilities installed by a plurality of consumers is displayed for each consumer and unit time. While recording by band, multiple regression analysis is performed for a plurality of consumers (existing solar power generation facilities) where the locations of the existing solar power generation facilities are in the same area based on the power generation amount information in the designated unit time zone. By using the partial regression coefficient derived from multiple regression analysis, the horizontal plane direct solar radiation amount and horizontal plane scattered solar radiation amount in the relevant time zone of the area are determined, and the power generation amount in the relevant time zone of the relevant area is predicted based on them. To do.

JP 2011-142790 A JP 2011-087372 A JP 2011-163974 A

  However, since the photovoltaic power generation amount prediction system of Patent Document 1 described above collects each data such as temperature, solar radiation amount, and electric energy in real time, it is necessary to transmit measurement result information in real time. For this reason, there is a difficulty that transmission related facilities are required.

  In the “photovoltaic power generation amount prediction device” in Patent Document 2, weather statistics data of the area where the solar power generation system is installed are used for power generation amount prediction, so it is realistic to predict the amount of power generation throughout Japan. There is a difficulty that is not.

  In the “photovoltaic power generation amount estimation device” of Patent Document 3, by analyzing the past power generation amount information using a statistical method (regression analysis), it is possible to perform measurement at a specified place without actually measuring the amount of solar radiation. Although the amount of power generation can be predicted, the amount of power generation cannot be predicted for each power plant / time, and the use of weather forecast information and weather performance information is not considered.

  The present invention has been made in consideration of the above-mentioned difficulties of the prior art, and its object is to generate solar power without actually measuring the sunshine intensity (irradiation amount), temperature, and power generation amount in real time. An object of the present invention is to provide a method and an apparatus for predicting a power generation amount in solar power generation, which can predict the power generation amount in solar power generation with high accuracy for each device and each time zone.

  Another object of the present invention is to provide a method and an apparatus for predicting the amount of power generation in solar power generation that can respond quickly and easily even if the weather forecast changes.

  Still another object of the present invention is to provide a method and an apparatus for predicting the amount of power generation in solar power generation, which can easily detect a failure of the solar power generation apparatus and determine whether or not to suppress output.

  Other objects of the present invention which are not specified here will be apparent from the following description and the accompanying drawings.

(1) The method for predicting the amount of power generation in solar power generation according to the first aspect of the present invention is as follows:
A method of predicting the amount of power generation at the time of desired power generation of a solar power generation device,
From the power generation results of the solar power generation device, obtain a power generation efficiency pattern specific to the solar power generation device and an approximate expression representing the power generation efficiency pattern, which indicate the correlation between the accumulated solar radiation amount and the hourly power generation efficiency. ,
Obtain the total amount of solar radiation by time from sunrise to sunset at the installation location of the solar power generation device, using the actual value of atmospheric transmittance of the installation location,
A weather function representing the correlation between humidity and sunshine rate is obtained from past weather results at the installation location, and a sunshine correction factor is obtained using the weather function, and the atmospheric transmittance is calculated using the sunshine correction factor. Adjust the effect of attenuation by clouds and humidity,
Assuming that the solar power generation apparatus accumulates the solar radiation amount by the hourly global solar radiation amount, the cumulative global solar radiation amount is calculated,
Using the approximate expression representing the power generation efficiency pattern, the hourly power generation efficiency of the solar power generation device is determined from the cumulative total solar radiation amount,
By correcting the hourly power generation efficiency with a correction coefficient corresponding to the difference between the reference temperature when the power generation efficiency pattern is obtained and the expected temperature at the time of power generation, the corrected hourly power generation efficiency is obtained,
Multiplying the corrected hourly power generation efficiency by the hourly total solar radiation amount and the maximum output of the solar power generation device, the hourly power generation amount of the solar power generation device is obtained. It is.

  In the power generation amount prediction method in the solar power generation according to the first aspect of the present invention, first, the solar power indicating the correlation between the accumulated solar radiation amount and the hourly power generation efficiency from the power generation results of the target solar power generation device. While calculating the power generation efficiency pattern specific to the photovoltaic power generation device and an approximate expression representing the power generation efficiency pattern, the total solar radiation amount according to the time from sunrise to sunset at the installation location of the photovoltaic power generation device It is obtained by using the actual value of atmospheric transmittance. Further, the effect of the atmospheric transmittance being attenuated by clouds and humidity is adjusted by the sunshine correction factor obtained using the weather function obtained from the past weather record at the installation location. Then, by using the approximate expression representing the power generation efficiency pattern, the hourly power generation efficiency of the solar power generation device is obtained from the accumulated total solar radiation amount, and the time of the solar power generation device is calculated using the hourly power generation efficiency. Get another power generation.

  Thus, the power generation result of the solar power generation device, the actual value of the atmospheric transmittance at the installation location of the solar power generation device, and the weather function obtained from the past weather performance at the installation location are found. For example, it is possible to calculate the hourly power generation amount of the solar power generation device. Therefore, it is not necessary to actually measure sunshine intensity (amount of solar radiation), temperature, and power generation amount in real time.

  Moreover, since the power generation results of the solar power generation device, the actual value of the atmospheric transmittance at the installation location of the solar power generation device, and the weather function obtained from the past weather performance at the installation location are used, It is possible to predict the amount of power generation with high accuracy (having high reliability that can be used for the daily operation of an electric power company (for example, an electric power company)).

  Furthermore, since the power generation efficiency pattern is unique to the solar power generation device, and what is obtained is the hourly power generation amount, the amount of power generation in solar power generation is different for each solar power generation device and for each time zone. Predictions can be made.

  Furthermore, since it is easy to replace the weather function according to the weather forecast, it is possible to respond quickly and easily even if the weather forecast changes. If the weather record is used instead of the weather forecast, it is possible to easily detect the failure of the photovoltaic power generation apparatus and determine whether or not to suppress the output.

  (2) In a preferable example of the power generation amount prediction method for solar power generation according to the present invention, the atmospheric transmittance is adjusted so as to coincide with the total solar radiation amount during the south-central time of the observation results.

  (3) In another preferable example of the power generation amount prediction method for solar power generation according to the present invention, when calculating the hourly total solar radiation amount, the calculation is performed 60 times while advancing the time by one minute, and the result is added. (1/60) after that, and the amount of solar radiation for one hour.

  (4) In still another preferred example of the power generation amount prediction method for solar power generation according to the present invention, the weather function is replaced according to a weather forecast at the installation location.

  (5) In still another preferred example of the power generation amount prediction method for solar power generation according to the present invention, when calculating a future hourly power generation amount of the solar power generation device, the weather function is replaced using a weather forecast. In the case of calculating the past hourly power generation amount of the solar power generation device, the weather function is replaced using the weather results.

(6) A power generation amount prediction apparatus in solar power generation according to the second aspect of the present invention is:
A device that predicts the amount of power generated by a solar power generation device during desired power generation,
From the power generation results of the solar power generation device, a power generation efficiency pattern specific to the solar power generation device and an approximate expression representing the power generation efficiency pattern, which indicate a correlation between the accumulated solar radiation amount and hourly power generation efficiency, are obtained. Means,
Means for determining the actual value of the atmospheric transmittance at the installation location of the solar power generation device;
Means for obtaining a weather function representing a correlation between humidity and sunshine ratio from past weather results at the installation location;
Obtain the total amount of solar radiation by time from sunrise to sunset at the installation location of the solar power generation device, using the actual value of the atmospheric transmittance,
Using the weather function to determine the sunshine correction factor, using the sunshine correction factor to adjust the effect of the atmospheric transmittance attenuated by clouds and humidity,
Assuming that the solar power generation apparatus accumulates the solar radiation amount by the hourly global solar radiation amount, the cumulative global solar radiation amount is calculated,
Using the approximate expression representing the power generation efficiency pattern, the hourly power generation efficiency of the solar power generation device is determined from the cumulative total solar radiation amount,
By correcting the hourly power generation efficiency with a correction coefficient corresponding to the difference between the reference temperature when the power generation efficiency pattern is obtained and the expected temperature at the time of power generation, the corrected hourly power generation efficiency is obtained,
Multiplying the corrected hourly power generation efficiency by the hourly total solar radiation amount and the maximum output of the solar power generation device, the hourly power generation amount of the solar power generation device is obtained. It is.

  In the power generation amount prediction apparatus for solar power generation according to the second aspect of the present invention, the same effect as that of the method can be obtained for the same reason as in the case of the power generation amount prediction method for solar power generation according to the first aspect of the present invention.

  (7) In a preferred example of the power generation amount prediction apparatus for solar power generation according to the present invention, the atmospheric transmittance is adjusted so as to coincide with the total solar radiation amount at the time of observation in the south and middle times.

  (8) In another preferable example of the power generation amount prediction apparatus for solar power generation according to the present invention, when calculating the hourly total solar radiation amount, the calculation is performed 60 times while the time is advanced by one minute, and the result is added. (1/60) after that, and the amount of solar radiation for one hour.

  (9) In still another preferred example of the power generation amount prediction apparatus for solar power generation according to the present invention, the weather function is replaced according to a weather forecast at the installation location.

  (10) In still another preferred example of the power generation amount prediction apparatus for solar power generation according to the present invention, when calculating a future hourly power generation amount of the solar power generation apparatus, the weather function is replaced using a weather forecast. In the case of calculating the past hourly power generation amount of the solar power generation device, the weather function is replaced using the weather results.

  According to the power generation amount prediction method and apparatus in solar power generation of the present invention, (a) the power generation amount prediction in solar power generation is highly accurate without actually measuring the sunshine intensity (sunlight amount), the temperature, and the power generation amount in real time. (B) It is possible to respond quickly and easily even if there is a change in the weather forecast, (c) It is possible to easily detect the failure of the photovoltaic power generation device and determine whether or not to suppress the output, The effect is obtained.

It is a conceptual diagram which shows the use condition of the electric power generation amount prediction apparatus which concerns on 1st Embodiment of this invention. It is a functional block diagram which shows the structure of the electric power generation amount prediction apparatus which concerns on 1st Embodiment of this invention. It is a flowchart which shows operation | movement of the electric power generation amount prediction apparatus which concerns on 1st Embodiment of this invention. It is a flowchart which shows the operation | movement which calculates the hourly global solar radiation amount of the electric power generation amount prediction apparatus which concerns on 1st Embodiment of this invention. It is a table | surface which shows the calculation process of the hourly total solar radiation amount of the electric power generation amount prediction apparatus which concerns on 1st Embodiment of this invention. It is a table | surface which shows the calculation process of the hourly total solar radiation amount of the electric power generation amount prediction apparatus which concerns on 1st Embodiment of this invention, and is a continuation of FIG. 5A. It is a graph which shows the change of the error resulting from an integral interval in the calculation process of the hourly total solar radiation amount of the electric power generation amount prediction apparatus which concerns on 1st Embodiment of this invention. It is a graph which shows the power generation efficiency pattern of the solar power generation device used as the object of the power generation amount prediction device according to the first embodiment of the present invention. (A) is a table | surface which shows an example of the monthly atmospheric transmittance of each place, (b) is a table | surface which shows an example of the global solar radiation amount actual measurement data of the Meteorological Agency. (A) is a graph showing a method for adjusting the atmospheric transmittance to the global solar radiation measurement data, (b) is a graph showing the annual atmospheric transmittance in Nagoya. (A) is a table | surface which shows an example of the weather forecast of January 28, (b) is a table | surface which correct | amended the weather forecast of the same day for every hour, (c) is a table | surface which shows the calculated sunlight correction factor. (A) is a graph showing the sunny weather function in January in Nagoya, (b) is a graph showing the cloudy weather function in January in Nagoya, and (c) is a rain function in January in Nagoya. It is a graph which shows. It is a graph which shows the fine weather composition function produced | generated by synthesize | combining a fine weather function and a cloudy weather function. It is explanatory drawing which shows the coping method when the weather forecast comes off in the electric power generation amount prediction apparatus which concerns on 1st Embodiment of this invention. In the power generation amount prediction apparatus according to the first embodiment of the present invention, it is a graph showing a case where the sunshine time and the total solar radiation amount do not match. It is explanatory drawing which shows the correspondence method when a solar power generation device is installed in the roof 1, the roof 2, and the roof 3. FIG. It is explanatory drawing which shows the coping method of a sunshade obstacle in the electric power generation amount prediction apparatus which concerns on 1st Embodiment of this invention. (A) is a table | surface which shows the extract of the weather forecast used in Example 1 of this invention, (b) is a table | surface which shows the weather forecast after the correction | amendment. (A) is a table showing an example of the hourly sunshine rate calculated in Example 1 of the present invention, (b) is a table showing an example of the hourly sunshine amount, and (c) is the whole sky after adaptation of the sunshine rate. The table | surface which shows the amount of solar radiation, (d) is a graph which shows the example of a power generation efficiency pattern. (A) is a table showing the predicted power generation amount (upper limit, average, lower limit) calculated in Example 1 of the present invention, (b) is a graph showing the predicted power generation amount, (c) is the predicted power generation amount and actual power generation. It is a graph which shows the comparison with quantity. (A) is the table | surface which shows the weather performance used in Example 2 of this invention, (b) is the table | surface which shows the weather performance after the correction | amendment, (c) is the calculated global solar radiation amount calculation result. It is a graph which shows the weather function of sunny, cloudy, and rain used in Example 2 of this invention. It is a graph which shows the power generation efficiency pattern used in Example 2 of this invention. (A) is a table | surface which shows the calculation result of the electric power generation amount calculated in Example 2 of this invention, (b) is a graph which shows a comparison with a prediction result and a track record. (A) is explanatory drawing which shows the positional relationship of the roof used in Example 3 of this invention, and an obstruction, (b) is a graph which shows the electric power generation amount for every roof. (A) is the table | surface which shows the electric power generation amount of the roof 1 calculated in Example 3 of this invention, (b) is the table | surface which shows the electric power generation amount of the roof 2, (c) is the table | surface which shows the electric power generation amount of the roof 3. It is.

  DESCRIPTION OF EXEMPLARY EMBODIMENTS Hereinafter, preferred embodiments of the invention will be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings.

(First embodiment)
FIG. 1 is a conceptual diagram illustrating a usage state of a power generation amount prediction apparatus 10 in solar power generation according to the first embodiment of the present invention, and FIG. 2 is a functional block diagram illustrating a configuration of the power generation amount prediction apparatus 10.

(Configuration of power generation prediction device)
As shown in FIG. 1, the power generation amount prediction device 10 of the present embodiment provides a solar power generation device 60, an electric power company (for example, an electric power company) 70 that performs power generation and transmission / distribution, and a weather forecast via the Internet 50. Connected to a weather forecast provider 80 and a weather record provider 90 that provides past weather records, and can perform data communication with each other. In FIG. 1, in order to simplify the description, the number of connected photovoltaic power generation devices 60, an electric power company (electric power company) 70, a weather forecast provider 80, and a weather performance provider 90 is all one. However, these numbers are arbitrary. Usually, there are a large number of solar power generation devices 60, and they are arranged throughout Japan. There are also a plurality of electric power companies (electric power companies) 70, which are distributed in various regions of Japan. The weather forecast provider 80 and the weather results provider 90 may be either singular or plural.

  The solar power generation device 60 includes a solar panel (solar power generation panel) installed on a roof of a house, a rooftop of a building, and the like, and a control device (for example, a power conditioner) that controls the solar panel.

  The configuration of the power generation amount prediction device 10 is as shown in FIG. 2, and includes a preparation unit 20, an information storage unit 30, a prediction calculation processing unit 40, and a predicted power generation amount transmission unit 45.

  The advance preparation unit 20 is a section for preparing in advance information necessary for the prediction calculation processing unit 40 to calculate the power generation amount. The user information registration unit 21, the weather function creation registration unit 22, the weather forecast / weather An actual observation station information registration unit 23, an atmospheric transmittance creation registration unit 24, a shadow obstacle registration unit 25, and a power generation efficiency pattern creation registration unit 26 are provided.

  The information storage unit 30 is a section for storing necessary information prepared by the pre-preparation unit 20, and includes a power generator information / coordinate / roof information storage unit 31, a weather function storage unit 32, an observation station information storage unit 33, and atmospheric transmission. A rate storage unit 34, a shade obstacle information storage unit 35, and a power generation efficiency pattern storage unit 36 are provided.

  The prediction calculation processing unit 40 includes various types of information stored in the information storage unit 30, weather forecast information provided from an external weather forecast provider 80, and weather record information provided from a weather record provider 90. Is a section that performs prediction calculation of the power generation amount of the solar power generation device 60, and includes a prediction calculation unit 41.

  The predicted power generation amount transmission unit 45 is a section that transmits the predicted power generation amount data calculated by the prediction calculation processing unit 40 to the outside, that is, to the solar power generation device 60 and the electric power company 70.

  The user information registration unit 21 of the advance preparation unit 20 provides information related to a user who uses the power generation amount prediction service provided by the power generation amount prediction device 10 provided in advance, for example, the user's address (latitude / longitude), Information such as contracted electric power supplier name, power customer number, model of solar power generation device 60, manufacturer, maximum output, area of solar power generation device 60 and solar panel and coordinates (latitude / longitude) of installation location, The direction (orientation), inclination (gradient), and the like are registered for each roof on which the solar panel of the solar power generation device 60 is installed. The registered user information is stored in the power generation device information / coordinate / roof information registration unit 31 of the information storage unit 30.

  The weather function creation / registration unit 22 of the advance preparation unit 20 creates and registers a weather function for each region in Japan in advance. The registered weather function is stored in the weather function storage unit 32 of the information storage unit 30. The “weather function” is an approximate expression representing the correlation between humidity and sunshine rate obtained from past weather results, and is created and registered by region, month, and weather category. “Weather function” is disclosed in Japanese Patent No. 4848051 related to the present inventor.

  The weather forecast / weather result observing station information registration unit 23 of the advance preparation unit 20 preliminarily includes information on the weather forecast observing station and the weather result observing station managed by the weather forecast provider 80 and the weather record provider 90 (for example, , The location of the weather forecast observatory and the weather observatory and their coordinates, etc.). The registered information is stored in the station information storage unit 33 of the information storage unit 30.

  The atmospheric transmittance creation registration unit 24 of the advance preparation unit 20 creates and registers the atmospheric transmittance of each region in Japan in advance. The “atmospheric transmittance” is obtained from past weather results in each region, and is created and registered by region, time zone, and weather category. The atmospheric transmittance that is created and registered here is the day when the solar radiation rate of 100% lasts for several hours at the time of south and mid-day, and the day when the total solar radiation is the maximum is selected. It was adjusted until it coincided with the amount of mid-day solar radiation. The registered atmospheric transmittance is stored in the atmospheric transmittance storage unit 34 of the information storage unit 30.

  The shade obstacle registration unit 25 of the advance preparation unit 20 preliminarily includes information about the shade obstacles existing in the solar power generation device 60 of each user (for example, the size and number of shade obstacles, the position, and the angle). , Shape, etc.). The registered shadow obstacle is stored in the shadow obstacle information storage unit 35 of the information storage unit 30.

  The power generation efficiency pattern creation / registration unit 26 of the advance preparation unit 20 creates and registers the power generation efficiency pattern of each user's solar power generation device 60 in advance. The registered power generation efficiency pattern is stored in the power generation efficiency pattern storage unit 36 of the information storage unit 30. The “power generation efficiency pattern” is a pattern representing a correlation between the accumulated solar radiation amount of the photovoltaic power generation apparatus 60 and hourly power generation efficiency, and is created and stored as an approximate expression representing the correlation (pattern). The

  The prediction calculation unit 41 of the prediction calculation processing unit 40 includes various information stored in the information storage unit 30, weather forecast information and weather performance information provided from the weather forecast provider 80 and the weather record provider 90, and And execute a predetermined prediction calculation process to calculate the predicted power generation amount.

  A calculation result obtained by the prediction calculation unit 41 by executing a predetermined prediction calculation process is sent to the predicted power generation amount transmission unit 45. The predicted power generation amount transmission unit 45 transmits the calculation result to the user, that is, the solar power generation device 60 and the electric power company 70 via the Internet 50. At that time, if desired, the calculation result is displayed by changing the display form for each user (solar power generation device 60) and each electric utility 70 (for example, electric power company).

  In many published patent documents, a relational expression (temperature characteristic) between the power generation amount of the solar panel and the temperature is proposed and used, but such a relational expression is not used in the present invention. This is because the power generation amount can be predicted as long as the “power generation record” of the solar panel (solar power generation device 60) is known even without having specialized knowledge. The present invention can be applied regardless of the temperature characteristics of the solar panel (solar power generation device 60).

(About power generation efficiency and power generation efficiency pattern)
One feature of the power generation amount prediction apparatus 10 according to the present embodiment is that, for power generation amount prediction, the hourly power generation efficiency (%) per unit area of the solar panel of the target solar power generation apparatus 60 and the time This is to use a power generation efficiency pattern indicating a change state of the power generation efficiency with respect to the accumulated amount of solar radiation (cumulative solar radiation amount). Therefore, before describing the power generation amount prediction method, this hourly power generation efficiency and power generation efficiency pattern will be described.

  Note that the terms such as hourly power generation efficiency, hourly actual power generation amount, hourly total solar radiation amount, etc. all indicate the amount per unit area of the solar panel. I will omit the word “winning”. In addition, “by time” may be a predetermined time unit, and may be an hour unit, a unit such as 30 minutes or 10 minutes, and can be arbitrarily determined as necessary.

In the present embodiment, the hourly power generation efficiency of the solar panel of the solar power generation device 60 is expressed as hourly power generation efficiency = hourly actual power generation amount (hourly power generation result) /
(Maximum output x hourly total solar radiation) (1)
It is defined as

  In the formula (1), the “hourly actual power generation amount (hourly power generation performance)” is easily obtained from the past power generation performance of the target solar panel. The “maximum output” is determined from the specifications of the target solar panel (solar power generation device 60). The “hourly global solar radiation amount” can be obtained from the hourly global solar radiation amount. Therefore, the hourly power generation efficiency of the solar panel of the target solar power generation device 60 can be easily obtained by using equation (1). The change pattern of the calculated hourly power generation efficiency with respect to the accumulated amount of solar radiation (cumulative solar radiation amount) is the power generation efficiency pattern of the solar panel (solar power generation device 60).

  When the target solar power generation device 60 has two or more solar panels, one solar panel is selected from the solar panels, and the change pattern of the hourly power generation efficiency is the solar power generation device 60 as it is. Power generation efficiency pattern.

  For the hourly actual power generation (hourly power generation results) used to determine the power generation efficiency pattern, select the day when the sunshine rate was close to the maximum value throughout the day (this is called the “pattern creation reference day”), and the solar panel (Solar power generation device 60) acquires the power generation performance of the day by hour. Then, the hourly power generation efficiency from sunrise to sunset may be obtained from the obtained hourly actual power generation amount.

  The graphs of the hourly power generation efficiency thus obtained are as shown in FIGS. 6 (a) to 6 (d). In these figures, the bar graph indicates the hourly actual power generation amount (hourly power generation performance), and the line graph indicates the hourly power generation efficiency. As can be seen from the figure, the hourly power generation efficiency takes various values according to the time, and varies (changes) with time. The “power generation efficiency pattern”, which is a change in hourly power generation efficiency, varies depending on the season, temperature, region, and type of solar panel (solar power generation device 60). It is known that it varies depending on the material used, the amount of heat generated by power generation, and the temperature. In addition, since the heat generation amount by the power generation in the solar panel is delayed in the start of power generation due to the influence of the weather or interrupted by rain on the way, the power generation efficiency pattern cannot be expressed in relation to time.

  In the case of solar power generation, heat is generated in proportion to the amount of power generated by the solar panel, but once generated heat is not immediately erased but accumulated in the solar panel. The accumulated heat affects the next power generation. Therefore, let us consider expressing the accumulation of heat in solar panels as the accumulation of global solar radiation. That is, the power generation efficiency at a certain time is considered to be equal to the accumulation of the total solar radiation accumulated in the solar panel from sunrise (start of solar radiation) to that time. Then, the relationship between the hourly global solar radiation accumulated in the solar panel and the hourly power generation efficiency of the solar panel is totaled from sunrise to that time, and the hourly global solar radiation and hourly power generation efficiency. An m-th order polynomial is obtained as an approximate expression that represents the correlation (that is, the power generation efficiency pattern).

  Then, graphs as shown in FIGS. 6E to 6G are obtained. These graphs show power generation efficiency patterns, the X-axis (horizontal axis) is the accumulated amount of solar radiation per unit area (cumulative solar radiation amount), and the Y-axis (vertical axis) is the power generation efficiency. . Since the X-axis (horizontal axis) is not time, the unit for obtaining power generation efficiency can be set freely, such as 5 minutes or 10 minutes.

An approximate expression of an m-order polynomial representing the correlation (power generation efficiency pattern) between the accumulated amount of solar radiation (cumulative solar radiation) and power generation efficiency is, for example, in the case of the fourth order:
Y = a ₁ X ⁴ + a ₂ X ³ + a ₃ X ² + a ₄ X + a ₅
(Where a ₁ , a ₂ , a ₃ , a ₄ , and a ₅ are constants). At this time, an optimal dimension representing the correlation may be obtained. Up to 6th order is possible.

  The approximate expression representing the power generation efficiency pattern thus obtained and the “hourly reference temperature table” which is the temperature change list of the pattern creation reference date are stored in pairs. And it is used for power generation amount prediction calculation.

  The approximate expression representing the power generation efficiency pattern and the hourly reference temperature table are created in advance by the power generation efficiency pattern creation / registration unit 26 of the pre-preparation unit 20 as specific to the solar panel (solar power generation device 60), It is stored in the power generation efficiency pattern storage unit 36 of the information storage unit 30.

  If this method is used, if the accumulated amount of solar radiation (cumulative solar radiation) can be obtained, the temporal power generation efficiency corresponding to the accumulated amount can be calculated. There is an advantage that no problem arises in the prediction of the amount of power generated even if the power generation is slowed down or if it suddenly rains during power generation and the power generation stops.

  Regarding the power generation efficiency pattern described above, the accumulated amount of solar radiation on the X-axis (cumulative solar radiation) is doubled between the summer solstice with the longest sunshine hours and the winter solstice with the shortest sunshine hours. Therefore, the approximate expression is also greatly different. For this reason, there exist the following several power generation efficiency patterns about one solar panel, for example.

  ・ Summer solstice pattern = A pattern centered around the summer solstice on June 22, with the longest daylight hours, and the usage period is from May 7 to August 6.

  ・ Winter solstice pattern = A pattern centered around the winter solstice on December 22, which has the shortest daylight hours, and the period of use is from November 7 to February 6.

  ・ Spring and Equinox Patterns = Equinox where the time of day and night are almost the same ・ Patterns around the time of Equinox, and the period of use is from February 7th to May 6th (around the spring equinox on March 20) , August 7 to November 6 (around the fall of September 20).

  Since the power generation efficiency pattern can be created as unique to the solar panel, the solar power generation panel (and consequently the solar power generation device 60) has a unique power generation efficiency pattern for each manufacturer and for each model. Become.

  The power generation efficiency pattern is not limited to that described above, and can be extended in various forms. For example, considering the change in the region and the month (season), it can be expanded to the region and month, etc., and one power generation efficiency pattern can be changed between morning and afternoon as shown in the graph of FIG. It can also be divided into two. Dividing the power generation efficiency pattern into two, morning and afternoon, has the advantage that the afternoon pattern is less affected by the morning pattern.

(About power generation calculation using power generation efficiency)
The hourly power generation efficiency described above is used as follows when calculating the predicted power generation amount.

  First, the total amount of solar radiation by hour from sunrise to sunset is obtained. Next, the total solar radiation amount (cumulative solar radiation amount) accumulated from sunrise to the desired time (m hour) is obtained. Then, hourly power generation efficiency corresponding to the accumulated solar radiation amount up to each time is read from the corresponding power generation efficiency pattern. The read hourly power generation efficiency is corrected by the predicted temperature at the time of power generation to obtain hourly power generation efficiency (after correction). Finally, by multiplying the hourly power generation efficiency (after correction) by the hourly total solar radiation amount (not the cumulative solar radiation amount) and the maximum output of the solar panel, a desired hourly power generation amount can be obtained. . This can be expressed as follows:

  That is, let X be the total solar radiation amount (cumulative solar radiation amount) accumulated from sunrise to the desired time (m o'clock), Y represents hourly power generation efficiency corresponding to the cumulative solar radiation amount X, and hourly power generation efficiency Y Let K be the hourly power generation efficiency (after correction), corrected by the estimated temperature at the time of power generation. Moreover, if the temperature at m hours on the pattern creation reference day of the power generation efficiency pattern (the day when the sunshine rate is close to the maximum value throughout the day) is Ta, the predicted temperature at the same time on the power generation date is Tb, and the correction coefficient is c, The power generation efficiency (after correction) K is expressed by the following equation (2).

K = Y + (Ta−Tb) × c (2)
The correction coefficient c can incorporate not only the difference between the temperature Ta on the pattern creation reference date and the predicted temperature Tb on the power generation date, but also the regionality or seasonality of photovoltaic power generation.

  Assuming that the hourly power generation amount (predicted power generation amount) is Z, the maximum output of the solar panel (solar power generation device 60) is Mx, and the hourly total solar radiation amount is S, the hourly power generation efficiency thus calculated From (after correction) K, the hourly power generation amount on the power generation day can be calculated by the following equation (3).

Z = Mx x S x K (3)
Here, it should be noted that the hourly global solar radiation amount S is not a cumulative value but a global solar radiation amount at each time.

(About atmospheric transmittance)
In the power generation amount prediction apparatus 10 according to the present embodiment, when calculating the hourly global solar radiation amount, in each region, the solar radiation rate of 100% lasts for several hours at the time of the south-central period, and the solar radiation amount with the maximum global solar radiation amount is obtained. , And use the atmospheric permeability adjusted until the amount of solar radiation during the day is the same as the total amount of solar radiation in the observation data. The reason will be described here.

  The atmospheric permeability (12:00) published in the Science Chronology (National Astronomical Observatory) is only the average of monthly maximum values from 1971 to 2000 and monthly average values for 14 locations. For this reason, this atmospheric transmittance has three problems.

  The first problem is that there are only 14 target sites, and the second problem is the average value from 10 years ago to 40 years ago, so the recent abnormal weather is not reflected. is there. The third problem is that only one type of transmittance can be used per month, even though the atmospheric transmittance of one district changes little by little continuously. For this reason, one type of transmittance is set for each month, and the total solar radiation amount changes suddenly at the change of the moon.

  In order to solve these three problems, this embodiment divides the whole of Japan into as small regions as possible, for example, 50 regions, and further divides the atmosphere into 10 months (season) for each divided region. The transmittance is set. Such measurement data of atmospheric permeability is readily available. In other words, according to the Meteorological Business Law and Meteorological Instrument Certification Regulations, contractors that provide global solar radiation measured with an electric solarimeter that has passed public weather observation certification, such as the Japan Meteorological Agency, private weather operators, mobile phones, etc. This is because the telephone company provides measurement data for various places throughout the country (see FIG. 7A).

  However, the electric pyranometers used by these companies for measurement are measured while following the solar orbit, so they absorb more solar radiation than the flat solar panels used for solar power generation. It has become. Therefore, it is necessary to use after correcting in consideration of this point.

  In the present embodiment, using the data in which the amount of solar radiation and the sunshine time are measured for each day and hour, the atmospheric transmittance is set by dividing each part of the country into three times a month. That is, first, from each season of the target area, a day is selected where the sunshine rate of 100% lasts for several hours at the time of the south-south and the total solar radiation amount is maximum. Next, substituting the date and latitude / longitude of the observation point into the given calculation formula, the atmospheric transmittance is calculated until the solar radiation amount in the south-central time of the calculation result matches the global solar radiation amount in the south-central time of the observation data. Adjust (refer to the graph of FIG. 7B (a)). Total hourly solar radiation is calculated using the atmospheric permeability adjusted in this way. As an example, the annual atmospheric transmittance of Nagoya thus created is shown in FIG. 7B (b).

  From the survey results, it is known that the atmospheric permeability has a strong seasonality, and if it is the same month, it will be almost the same for 2 to 3 years. Therefore, the maximum value may not be found in 10 days obtained by dividing the month into three. At that time, the maximum day may be selected from the same month in the previous year, not the same month in the previous year. This is because the same result can be obtained.

(Power generation amount prediction method with power generation amount prediction device)
Next, the power generation amount prediction method of the power generation amount prediction apparatus 10 according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIGS. 3 and 4. The following steps are executed by the prediction calculation unit 41 of the prediction calculation processing unit 40.

  In FIG. 3, first, in step S <b> 1, the date (year / month / day) for which the power generation amount is predicted, that is, “power generation date” is acquired. The power generation date data normally uses data input from the user of the solar power generation device 60, but may use data input directly from the power generation amount prediction device 10. In addition, the coordinate data of the “power generation location”, that is, the installation location of the photovoltaic power generation device 60 that is the target of the power generation amount prediction, is generated as the power generation device information / coordinate / roof information storage unit 31 of the information storage unit 30. Read from. For example, the position, azimuth, angle, and the like of the roof where the solar panel of the solar power generation device 60 is installed are read out.

  In step S2, it is determined whether the power generation date recognized in step S1 is earlier (past) than the current power generation amount prediction date (prediction date). If the power generation date is earlier than the predicted date (YES), the process jumps to step S10. In step S10, the nearest station of the power generation station is read from the station information storage unit 33, and the weather performance of the power generation station is acquired from the station. And it progresses to step S11 and calculates the sunlight correction factor of an electric power generation day from the weather and actual humidity of the acquired weather performance. Thereafter, steps S5 to S9 are executed.

  As is clear from step S2, steps S10 to S11 are processing when the power generation date is earlier than the prediction date, and thus are not processing for predicting the future power generation amount. These steps are for determining whether or not the solar power generation device 60 has a failure and whether or not the output of the solar power generation device 60 has been suppressed. In the normal case of predicting the future power generation amount, steps S3 to S9 are executed.

  In step S2, when the power generation date recognized in step S1 is not earlier than the predicted date (NO), the process proceeds to step S3. In step S3, the nearest station of the power generation site is read from the station information storage unit 33, and a weather forecast for the next day (and thereafter) of the power generation site is acquired from the station. The weather forecast is acquired, for example, three times a day, for example, 6:00, 11:00, and 18:00. Thereafter, the process proceeds to step S4.

  In step S4, the “weather function” corresponding to the power generation location and the power generation date stored in the weather function storage unit 32 is extracted, and the predicted weather and predicted humidity of the power generation date are extracted from the acquired weather forecast. Input to the weather function and calculate the sunshine correction factor for each hour of the power generation date.

  The “weather function” is an approximate expression that represents the correlation between humidity and sunshine rate for each region, each month, and each weather category obtained from past weather results (see Japanese Patent No. 4848051). The “sunshine correction rate” is for correcting the amount of solar radiation by time later. That is, in the next step S5, the hourly global solar radiation amount is calculated. In this case, in order to simplify the calculation, the adjustment value of the atmospheric transmittance corresponding to the power generation date and the power generation location is uniformly used. The attenuation of solar radiation due to the cloud and humidity of the power generation day is not considered. Therefore, in order to reflect the attenuation of the amount of solar radiation caused by clouds and humidity in the hourly global solar radiation amount calculated in step S5, a sunlight correction factor is prepared here (see step S23 in FIG. 4). ).

  A “weather function” is created in advance for each region, each month, and each weather category. There are three types of weather categories, “sunny”, “cloudy”, and “rain”, and each expresses the correlation between humidity and sunshine rate as an approximate expression. It is also possible to set confidence intervals and set upper, lower and average approximation formulas. “Sunny” and “cloudy” can be combined into one function.

  Fig. 8B shows the weather function for January in a Nagoya area. Each is a function of "Sunny", "Cloudy" and "Rain". Is set so that can be calculated.

  In order to predict the amount of power generation from the weather forecast, a forecast of the area closest to the area is acquired from forecasts with a humidity forecast. The weather forecast usually displays predicted values every three hours, but in order to predict every hour, the weather forecast is corrected to every hour. In this correction, the weather at n hours is set at (n−1) and (n + 1) respectively, and “humidity” and “temperature” are set to a value at n hours and b at (n + 3) times, respectively. In this case, the value at (n + 1) is corrected to (1/3) (b + 2a), and the value at (n + 2) is corrected to (1/3) (2b + a). Actually, when the weather forecast table of FIG. 8A (a) is corrected, it becomes as shown in FIG. 8A (b).

  From the weather forecast thus corrected for every hour, a sunshine correction factor (hourly sunshine correction factor) is obtained by applying a weather function for each hour. When there is an upper limit and a lower limit, as in the case of the average, the humidity is input to each weather function and the hourly sunshine correction factor is calculated. The calculation result is as shown in FIG.

  In the subsequent step S5, hourly total solar radiation at the power generation date and the power generation location is calculated. In this step, the atmospheric transmittance corresponding to the power generation date and the power generation location stored in the atmospheric transmittance storage unit 34 is read and used. As described above, as described above, for all the times, the atmospheric transmittance corresponding to the time of the south and central hours, which is the strongest solar radiation time zone observed by the weather operator before, at the power generation site, for all times, What was adjusted by the predetermined method is used. Then, the attenuation of the solar radiation amount due to the influence of clouds and humidity is corrected in step S23 by using the “sunshine correction factor” calculated from the weather function in the previous step S4.

  In the following step S6, the shade obstacle information of the power generation place stored in the shade obstacle information storage unit 35 is read, and the solar power generation device 60 that is the target of the power generation amount prediction is supplied to the solar panel. Shadow treatment is performed on all obstacles that interfere with sunlight irradiation. That is, the amount of solar radiation attenuation due to all shade obstacles is calculated. This is to take into account that an obstacle around the solar panel causes a shadow on the solar panel and the amount of sunlight irradiated to the solar panel is attenuated.

  In the following step S7, the hourly global solar radiation amount calculated in step S5 is corrected in consideration of the attenuation amount of the solar radiation amount by the obstacle around the solar panel obtained in step S6.

  In subsequent step S8, the approximate expression (see the graphs of FIGS. 6E to 6G) corresponding to the power generation efficiency pattern of the solar panel is read from the power generation efficiency pattern storage unit 36, and the solar radiation obtained in step S7 is read out. The hourly power generation efficiency is calculated by applying the hourly global solar radiation after the amount attenuation correction. At this time, normally, since there is a difference between the reference temperature at the time of generating the power generation efficiency pattern and the predicted temperature on the power generation date, the hourly power generation efficiency is corrected according to the difference. Then, the hourly power generation efficiency is obtained by multiplying the corrected hourly power generation efficiency by the total solar radiation amount (not the cumulative solar radiation amount) corresponding to each time and the maximum output. That is, the hourly power generation amount is obtained using the above equations (2) and (3).

  When the hourly power generation amount thus obtained is graphed, the predicted power generation amount on the power generation date is obtained for each hour.

  In addition, said step S3-S9 is performed with respect to the solar panel installed in one roof, and the result obtained is the power generation amount according to time about the solar panel installed in one roof. It is. Therefore, when a solar panel is installed on a plurality of roofs for one solar power generation device 60, the hourly power generation amount is calculated in the same manner for all the solar panels. And the hourly power generation amount by all the obtained solar panels is totaled. In this way, the power generation amount by predicted time of the entire photovoltaic power generation apparatus 60 that is the target of power generation amount prediction is obtained.

  If it is determined in step S2 described above that the power generation date is earlier (past) than the prediction date, the flow jumps to step S10, but in step S10, the nearest station of the power generation site is read from the station information storage unit 33. The weather performance of the power generation place is acquired from the observation station at intervals of 10 minutes, for example. And it progresses to step S11 and calculates the sunlight correction factor of an electric power generation day from the weather and actual humidity of the acquired weather performance. Thereafter, similarly to the case where the power generation date is not earlier than the predicted date (steps S3 to S4), steps S5 to S9 are executed to obtain the predicted power generation amount on the power generation date prior to the predicted date.

  As a result of comparing the predicted power generation amount obtained in this way with the actual power generation amount, if it is found that the difference between the two is quite large, it is highly possible that the photovoltaic power generation device 60 has a failure. is there. If it is not a failure, the output of the solar power generation device 60 may be suppressed, and thus examination is necessary.

  This is the end of the power generation prediction calculation process.

(Calculation method of hourly global solar radiation)
Next, the calculation method of the total solar radiation amount according to time of the power generation date and the power generation place, which is executed in step S5 of FIG. 3, will be described in detail with reference to FIG.

  In FIG. 4, in the first step S <b> 21, the solar radiation amount outside the atmosphere for each hour of the power generation date and the power generation location is calculated. This calculation is performed every minute. This calculation can be performed by a known method as follows.

  In general, the latitude and longitude of the desired point, and the sun azimuth ψ and altitude α at any time on any day are calculated using the values of solar declination δ, latitude φ, and hour angle h, respectively (4 ) And (5) respectively.

α = arcsin {sin (φ) sin (δ) +
cos (φ) cos (δ) cos (h)} (4)
ψ = arctan [cos (φ) cos (δ) sin (h) /
{Sin (φ) sin (α) −sin (δ)}] (5)
Here, the time angle h is given by the following equation (6) as a function of the standard time JST.

Hour angle h = (JST-12) π / 12
+ Longitude difference from standard meridian + Equal time difference (Eq) (6)
The equation of time (Eq) is determined as a function of the number of days since January 1.

  Then, the hourly atmospheric total solar radiation amount Q is obtained by the following equation (7).

Q = 1367 (r ^* / r) ² sin (α) (7)
However, 1367 (W / m ² ) is a solar constant, and (r / r ^* ) is a geocentric solar distance, which is a function of the number of days from January 1.

  The amount of global solar radiation Q calculated in this way is output as the amount of energy per hour (megajoules, MJ) poured into an area of 1 square meter. In other words, it can be seen that by using the above-described formula, the solar radiation amount outside the atmosphere according to the time of the power generation date and the power generation location can be obtained.

  In the next step S22, the hourly normal solar radiation amount is calculated from the hourly atmospheric total solar radiation amount obtained in step S21. This calculation is also performed every minute. This calculation can also be performed by a known method as follows.

  The amount of direct solar radiation by time, that is, the amount of solar radiation that reaches the surface of the earth where the energy outside the atmosphere is vertical, is obtained from the hourly atmospheric total solar radiation using the following equation (8) (Bouguer's equation). be able to.

_{J n = J n0 × P ×} m (8)
Here, J _n is the normal surface direct solar radiation amount [MJ / m ² h], J _n0 is the outside _global solar radiation amount [MJ / m ² h], P is the atmospheric transmittance, and m is the atmospheric mass.

  Atmospheric mass m is the air resistance until sunlight reaches the earth's surface. When the sun is at the zenith, the atmospheric mass at the sea level is corrected by the altitude, and when the solar altitude is low, the influence of the curvature of the atmosphere is standardized. It is corrected by the solar altitude expressed in time. As described above, the atmospheric transmittance P is obtained by adjusting the maximum atmospheric transmittance at midday according to the three months of the month.

  In the next step S23, the hourly inclined surface direct solar radiation amount, that is, the solar radiation amount poured into the solar panel with inclination and orientation is calculated from the hourly normal surface direct solar radiation amount obtained in step S22. This calculation is also performed every minute. This calculation can also be performed by a known method as follows.

  The amount of direct solar radiation on the inclined surface can be calculated using a spherical trigonometric function as shown in the following equation (9).

I _Di = I _Dn cos (i) (9)
Here, I _Di is an inclined surface direct solar radiation amount [MJ / m ² h], I _Dn is a normal surface direct solar radiation amount [MJ / m ² h], and i is a solar radiation incident angle [rad].

  The cosine cos (i) of the incident angle of solar radiation can be calculated by the following equation (10).

cos (i) = sin (h) · cos (γ) +
cos (h), cos (A), sin (γ), cos (α) +
cos (h) · sin (A) · sin (γ) · sin (α) (10)
Where h is solar altitude [rad], A is solar azimuth angle [rad] (true south = 0, east side = negative, west side = positive), and γ is slope inclination angle [rad] (horizontal = 0, vertical = π / 2), α is the azimuth angle [rad] of the slope normal (true south = 0, east side = negative, west side = positive).

  The amount of direct solar radiation on the inclined surface obtained in this way is obtained by using a uniform atmospheric transmittance, and this is multiplied by the “sunshine correction factor” obtained in step S4, resulting in clouds and humidity. Correct the attenuation of the amount of sunlight.

  In the next step S24, the hourly horizontal solar radiation amount is calculated from the hourly atmospheric total solar radiation amount obtained in step S22. This calculation is also performed every minute. Again, a uniform atmospheric transmission is used.

  The hourly horizontal solar radiation amount can be calculated using the following commonly used equation (11). This calculation is also performed every minute.

I _sh = J _n0 × sin (h) (1-P · cosec (h)) × K _SD (11)
However, K _SD = (0.66-0.32sin (h)) ×
{0.5+ (0.4-0.3P) sin (h)}
It is. In addition, I _sh is the horizontal solar radiation amount (scattered light) [MJ / m ² h], J _n0 is the outside total solar radiation amount [MJ / m ² h], P is the atmospheric transmittance, and h is the solar altitude. .

In the next step S25, the hourly inclined surface direct solar radiation amount (I _Di ) obtained in step S24 and the hourly horizontal solar radiation amount (I _sh ) obtained in step S24 are added to produce hourly global solar radiation. Calculate the quantity. This calculation is also performed every minute for all the time from sunrise to sunset.

  In the next step S26, the hourly total solar radiation amount obtained in step S25 is totaled every 10 minutes.

  In the last step S27, the total amount of solar radiation by time counted every 10 minutes in step S26 is totaled every hour. Thus, the hourly global solar radiation amount is obtained every hour.

  In this embodiment, in order to improve calculation accuracy, all calculation outputs from the total atmospheric solar radiation amount to the total solar radiation amount are output as values per unit area / unit time. Therefore, in order to obtain the amount of solar radiation per day, the standard time JST may be calculated by advancing the standard time JST by the time from sunrise to sunset. For example, calculation at 6 o'clock, 7 o'clock, ... 17:00, 18 o'clock.

  By the way, the amount of solar radiation per day is graphed as a conical curve. However, if a time unit is calculated, a smooth curve should be a stepped graph, which is a problem in terms of accuracy. It is in the vicinity of sunrise and sunset that the accuracy decreases significantly. It can be seen that there is a difference of up to about 60% at the base portion when the area of the conic curve is obtained in increments of 1 hour and where the area is obtained in increments of 1 minute (see FIG. 5C).

  There is also a problem that the calculation accuracy changes due to the inability to specify a precise time. For example, the influence degree of the solar radiation intensity for 10 minutes at a certain time varies greatly depending on whether it is the first 10 minutes or the last 10 minutes. It varies greatly depending on whether the time is close to sunrise or south-central time.

  In order to solve these two problems, in this embodiment, as shown in FIGS. 5A and 5B, the total solar radiation amount is calculated from the atmospheric total solar radiation amount while the clock is advanced one minute at a time. Since the intensity per hour is output as the calculation result, the calculation result is set to 1/60 and stored in the solar radiation amount calculation basic work table (in units of 1 minute). Then, the calculation results in units of 1 minute are totaled in units of 10 minutes and stored in the solar radiation amount calculation intermediate work table (units of 10 minutes). Further, the results in units of 10 minutes are totaled for one hour and stored in the solar radiation intensity calculation result table (time unit). By doing so, the calculation accuracy can be increased.

(When there are multiple solar panels)
The types of roofs to which solar panels can be attached include gables, dormitories (see Fig. 11), and main building, and there are also main houses, separate buildings, barns, warehouses (warehouses), and so on. Are installed, and these solar panels are controlled by a single control device (power conditioner). In addition, each solar panel has a different installation direction and installation inclination angle, so the influence of the shade obstacles is also different. Therefore, it is necessary to reflect the influence of the shade obstacle in the power generation amount prediction for each solar panel.

  If the manufacturer, product, installation orientation, and installation inclination angle of the solar panel are the same, it can be handled as a single panel even if the installation location is remote. The manufacturer name, product name, azimuth angle, inclination angle, and maximum output (panel area) are stored in advance in the power generation device information / coordinate / roof information storage unit 31 for each solar panel.

  In the power generation forecast calculation, as described above, the total solar radiation by hour from sunrise to sunset is calculated for each solar panel in consideration of the influence of the weather. (See step S6). Then, the power generation amount is calculated by applying the power generation efficiency pattern for each solar panel. When the power generation amount for each solar panel is obtained in this way, the power generation amounts of all the solar panels are summed up hourly to obtain the predicted power generation amount of the solar power generation device 60 for one day.

  By performing the prediction calculation for each solar panel, the east panel can take into account that the amount of power generated in the morning is large but decreases in the afternoon. Moreover, the power generation efficiency can be assumed separately by treating the effect of temperature due to power generation for each solar panel, and the effect of shadows can be determined separately.

(Considering the effects of shade obstacles)
The influence of the shadow is dealt with, for example, as follows (see FIG. 12).

For each solar power generation device 60, an obstacle (a shade obstacle) that becomes a shade is registered.
・ Direction (1) and distance (2) that the solar power generation device 60 becomes the first shadow
・ Direction (4) and distance (5) that solar power generation device 60 becomes the last shade
-The height (3) of the shade obstacle calculates the height from the solar power generation device 60.
The angle (3) ′ created by the shade obstacle is calculated by tan ⁻¹ (height of the shade obstacle ÷ distance to the shade obstacle).

  If there are multiple shade obstacles, register all of them.

  For example, a west-facing roof does not generate direct solar radiation until morning in the morning until the sunlight intensity is equal to or greater than the inclination angle of the roof. On the other hand, the east-facing roof does not generate direct solar radiation in the evening when the sunlight intensity becomes lower than the inclination angle. This is incorporated in the equation (10) used for calculating the solar radiation amount on the inclined surface.

  Shading is determined as follows.

Sun Azimuth (A) and Altitude (h): Using Sun Distance A (2) and (5) to Sunshade Obstruction when Sun A is in the range of (1) and (2) Find the angle (3) ′ = tan ⁻¹ (the height of the shade obstacle ÷ the distance to the shade obstacle) made by the object.

  Shade start: When A = (1), h <(3) ′. When A = (1), if h> (3) ′, there is no shadow.

  End of shadow: After the shadow is reached (ie, when A = (1), h <(3) ′), (1) <A <(2), h> (3) ′ ( That is, it is the time when the sun comes to a position higher than the shade obstacle.

  The solar altitude and azimuth can be determined automatically by checking the altitude azimuth of the solar orbit in the calculation result at 1 minute intervals and the tabulation method (see FIG. 5).

  When the time zone in which the solar panel is shaded is found in this way, a flag is set in the shade effect column of the solar radiation amount calculation basic work table (in 1 minute unit) shown in FIG. And when totaling for every 10 minutes after completion | finish of shadow determination, the total solar radiation amount of the time slot | zone where a flag stands should just be only a horizontal surface solar radiation amount. By doing so, it is possible to easily reflect the influence of the shade obstacle on the predicted power generation amount.

(Responding to changes in weather forecasts)
The grid operation of the electric utility 70 is planned the day before, and the best operation is performed while accepting changes as much as possible on the day. For example, the next day's operation plan is accepted until 17:30 on the previous day, and then the plan is made. On the next day, every 10 minutes, the system is operated while predicting 2 hours ahead. We respond as much as possible to the ever-changing situation. Careful consideration must be given to the fact that the weather forecast is off. This embodiment also takes into account that the weather forecast is changed (see FIG. 9).

  Weather forecasts are usually published three times a day. There are areas where forecasts change little by little with each announcement. The determination as to whether or not the weather forecast has been changed is made by, for example, three types of weather classification, humidity, and temperature. Specifically, for example, when the weather changes from “sunny”, “cloudy”, and “rainy”, when the humidity changes by 10 degrees or more, and when the temperature changes by 5 degrees or more Is regarded as “forecast change”. In this case, only for the solar power generation device 60 in the changed area, the power generation amount is predicted again based on the new weather forecast, and the new predicted power generation amount after the change is sent only to the corresponding solar power generation device 60. . The new predicted power generation amount is also sent to the corresponding electric utility 70.

  An example of a response when the weather forecast is changed will be described with reference to FIG.

  When the 1st weather forecast for the next day (n + 1) is issued on the current day (n day) at 6:00 am, the forecasted power generation for that day (n day) and the next day (n + 1 day) is calculated and the corresponding sun It is transmitted to the photovoltaic device 60 and displayed. At this time, it is not transmitted to the electric power company (electric power company) 70.

  When the second weather forecast is issued at 11:00 (am), the power generation amount is not calculated when it is determined “no change” as compared with the first weather forecast. A predicted power generation amount based on the first weather forecast is transmitted to the electric power company (electric power company) 70. If it is determined that there is a change, the predicted power generation amount for the current day (n day) and the next day (n + 1 day) is recalculated based on the second weather forecast and transmitted to the corresponding solar power generation device 60 for display. To do. At this time, the predicted power generation amount based on the second weather forecast is transmitted to the electric power company (electric power company) 70.

  When the third weather forecast is issued at 18:00, it is compared with the second weather forecast. When it is determined that there is no change, the power generation amount is not calculated. If it is determined that there is a change, the predicted power generation amount for the current day (n day) and the next day (n + 1 day) is recalculated based on the third weather forecast, and transmitted to the corresponding solar power generation device 60 for display. To do. At this time, the predicted power generation amount is not transmitted to the electric power company (electric power company) 70. This is because the predicted power generation amount to the electric power company (electric power company) 70 must arrive at 17:30. The electric power company (electric power company) 70 creates an operation plan for the next day (n + 1 day) based on the first or second weather forecast transmitted in this way.

  On the next day (n + 1 day), the 4th weather forecast will be issued at 6 am (am). Compared with the 3rd weather forecast, if it is judged that there is a change, it will be based on the 4th weather forecast. The predicted power generation amount for (n + 1) days is calculated, transmitted to the corresponding solar power generation device 60, and displayed. At the same time, it is also transmitted to the electric power company (electric power company) 70 in order to keep up with the change in system operation after 9:00 am.

  When the 5th weather forecast is issued at 11:00 am, it is compared with the 4th weather forecast. When it is determined that there is a change, the predicted power generation amount for n + 1 days is calculated based on the 5th weather forecast. Then, it transmits to the corresponding solar power generation device 60 and displays it. At the same time, it is also transmitted to the electric power company (electric power company) 70 in order to keep up with the change in system operation after 13:00.

  Thereafter, the same processing is repeated every day.

  As described above, in the power generation amount prediction apparatus 10 according to the first embodiment, first, the correlation between the accumulated solar radiation amount and the hourly power generation efficiency is shown from the power generation results of the target solar power generation apparatus 60. While obtaining the power generation efficiency pattern specific to the solar power generation device 60 and an approximate expression representing the power generation efficiency pattern, the total amount of solar radiation by time from sunrise to sunset at the installation location of the solar power generation device 60 is obtained. The actual value of the atmospheric transmittance at the installation location is obtained. Further, the effect of the atmospheric transmittance being attenuated by clouds or humidity is adjusted by the sunshine correction factor obtained using the weather function obtained from the past weather record at the installation location. Then, using the approximate expression representing the power generation efficiency pattern, the hourly power generation efficiency of the solar power generation device 60 is obtained from the accumulated total solar radiation amount, and the hourly power generation of the solar power generation device 60 is performed using the hourly power generation efficiency. Getting quantity.

  Thus, if the weather function calculated | required from the power generation track record of the solar power generation device 60, the track record value of the atmospheric transmittance in the installation place of the solar power generation device 60, and the past weather performance in the said installation location will become clear. The hourly power generation amount of the solar power generation device 60 can be calculated. Therefore, it is not necessary to actually measure sunshine intensity (amount of solar radiation), temperature, and power generation amount in real time.

  In addition, since the power generation result of the solar power generation device 60, the actual value of the atmospheric transmittance at the installation location of the solar power generation device 60, and the weather function obtained from the past weather performance at the installation location are used, high Accurate power generation amount prediction (having high reliability that can be used for daily operation of an electric power company (for example, an electric power company) 70) becomes possible.

  Furthermore, since the power generation efficiency pattern is unique to the solar power generation device 60, and what is obtained is the hourly power generation amount, the prediction of the amount of power generation in solar power generation by the solar power generation device and by time zone is obtained. It can be performed.

  Furthermore, since it is easy to change the weather function according to the weather forecast, it is possible to respond quickly and easily even if there is a change in the weather forecast. If the weather record is used instead of the weather forecast, it is possible to easily find a failure of the photovoltaic power generation apparatus 60 and determine whether or not to suppress output.

(Second Embodiment)
In the first embodiment described above, the power generation amount is predicted from the weather forecast. However, in the second embodiment, the power generation amount is predicted from the weather performance, and corresponds to the case where steps S10 to S11 in FIG. 3 are executed. . Since the other points are the same as those in the first embodiment described above, description thereof is omitted.

Past weather results include sunshine hours (h) and total solar radiation (MJ / m ² ). However, these two data cannot be used for predictive calculations. The reason for this is that the global solar radiation measurement is measured by the solar orbit tracking type, so that it is about 20% larger than the case of the fixed type solar power generation device 60, and There are only 50 observation stations all over Japan that measure the amount of solar radiation. For this reason, the distance between the solar power generation device 60 and the observation station is increased, and the error is increased due to the influence of clouds, which is not preferable.

  The sunshine duration is actually measured when the sunshine exceeds a certain intensity, but in the case of solar power generation, there are many products that can generate electricity below that intensity. Absent.

  An example in which the sunshine hours and the total solar radiation amount do not match is shown in FIG.

  When the power generation amount is predicted from the weather results, the weather function is used as in the case of prediction from the weather forecast. In addition, the data necessary for the prediction are the power plant site, date of power generation, weather type, humidity, temperature, and precipitation. However, there are the following differences from the forecast from the weather forecast.

  The first difference is that, in the case of the weather forecast, the prediction is made in units of one hour, whereas in the case of the weather results, the result data in units of 10 minutes is obtained. The second difference is that depending on the observatory, the weather type may not be known, or even if the weather type is known, it may be unusable due to the weather every 6 hours. It is. In this case, as shown in FIG. 8C, a “sunny function” and a “cloud function” are synthesized in advance to create a “sunny function”, and when the precipitation is 0 or more, “rain function”. Otherwise, this “cloudy cloud composition function” can be used.

Subsequently, the acquired “weather” every hour is pasted at 10-minute intervals. That is, the data is edited every 10 minutes at intervals of 1 hour / 2 hours / 3 hours / 6 hours. Then, the weather function is assigned as follows.
・ Sunny / Sunny / Light clouding → Sunny function or clear cloud composition function / Cloudy → Cloudy function or clear cloud composition function Function When a corresponding weather function is acquired and humidity is input to the weather function every 10 minutes, a sunshine correction factor is output every 10 minutes.

Next, the calculation result of the total solar radiation amount in increments of 10 minutes is received, and the following equation (12) is calculated for the entire time. (If upper and lower limits are set, the same calculation is performed for each.)
Total solar radiation by hour = Horizontal solar radiation by hour +
Amount of direct solar radiation on the inclined surface by hour × Sunlight correction factor (12)
If the hourly total solar radiation amount thus obtained is multiplied by the hourly power generation efficiency and the maximum output of the solar panel (solar power generation device 60), the predicted power generation amount can be obtained.

  Next, the above-described present invention will be described more specifically with reference to examples. The first embodiment is an example in the case where the power generation amount is predicted from the weather forecast.

  In the photovoltaic power generation system installed in Obu City, Aichi Prefecture, the power generation amount on January 21, 2011 was predicted. This solar power generation device was installed at a location 13.9 km from Nagoya Regional Meteorological Observatory, 4.6 km from Tokai Observatory, and 23.2 km from Toyota Observatory.

  The specifications of this solar power generation device were as follows.

Location coordinates: North latitude 35 degrees 2 minutes, east longitude 136 degrees 57 minutes Altitude: 10 meters Roof orientation: 13 degrees east facing south Roof inclination angle: 25 degrees Panel equipment: Manufacturer = S company, model = M type (polycrystalline Type)
Maximum output of solar cell: 4.814KW
The prediction calculation procedure was as follows.

  First, the weather forecast for January 21, 2011 in Obu City, Aichi Prefecture was acquired. A part thereof is shown in FIG. 13A (a). Next, the acquired weather forecast every 3 hours was corrected to hourly forecasts as shown in FIG. 13A (b).

  Next, get the weather function for January in the Nagoya area (see Figure 8B), get the weather and humidity from the weather forecast corrected for each hour, and enter the weather function for the upper limit, average, and lower limit, The sunshine correction factor according to time was acquired (refer to Drawing 13B (a)). In addition, the air permeability (= 0.875) of Nagoya in late January was obtained.

  Therefore, using the air permeability, location coordinates, roof orientation, angle, altitude, and power generation date (January 21) obtained in this way, the amount of solar radiation (horizontal, incline, and daily solar radiation) Amount) was calculated (see FIG. 13B (b)).

  The calculated hourly solar radiation amount was corrected with the sunshine correction rate, and the total solar radiation amount was calculated using the above equation (12) for all of the upper limit, average, and lower limit (see FIG. 13B (see c)).

  On the other hand, the corresponding power generation efficiency pattern was acquired (see FIG. 13B (d)). The pattern identification keys were S, M, and winter.

  Cumulative solar radiation was calculated for each hour, and the cumulative solar radiation was input for each hour into the approximate expression corresponding to the power generation efficiency pattern, and the corresponding power generation efficiency was determined.

The difference between the reference temperature when creating the power generation efficiency pattern and the predicted temperature on the forecast date was calculated, and the power generation efficiency was corrected by the temperature. By multiplying the corrected power generation efficiency by the total solar radiation amount (not the cumulative solar radiation amount) at the time and the maximum output, that is, the hourly power generation amount was obtained according to the above equation (3) (FIG. 13C (a)).
reference).

  FIG. 13C (b) shows the output power generation amount by time.

  When a graph that can compare the actual power generation result with the predicted power generation amount was created, it was found that the difference between the two was small (see FIG. 13C (c)).

  The present Example 2 is an example in the case of predicting the power generation amount from the weather results.

  In a solar power generation apparatus installed in Sapporo, Hokkaido, the power generation amount on June 8, 2011 was predicted using past weather data. This solar power generator is located 7.7 km from the Sapporo District Regional Meteorological Observatory and 49.9 km from Eniwajimamatsu Station.

  The specifications of this solar power generation device were as follows.

Location coordinates: North latitude 43 degrees 0 minutes 13.45 seconds, East longitude 141 degrees 28 minutes 18.811 seconds Altitude: 10 meters Roof orientation: South 0 degrees Roof inclination angle: 32 degrees Panel equipment: Manufacturer = Company M, Model = K model (polycrystalline)
Maximum output of solar cell: 4.44KW
The prediction calculation procedure was as follows.

  First, we obtain the weather results for June 8th at the nearest observation station (Sapporo District Meteorological Observatory) where “weather” observations are made. Weather results at 10-minute intervals on the 8th were acquired (see FIGS. 14A (a) and 14 (b)).

In addition, the weather function for June in the Sapporo area was acquired, and the acquired weather function was applied with a 10 minute interval weather function as described below (see FIGS. 14B (a) to 14 (c)).
・ Sunny / Sunny / Light clouding → Sunny function or clear cloud composition function / Cloudy → Cloudy function or clear cloud composition function Function Using the weather function, the sunshine correction factor was calculated every 10 minutes, and the atmospheric transmittance (= 0.700) in the end of June in the Sapporo area was obtained.

  Therefore, the values of atmospheric transmittance, location coordinates, roof orientation, angle, altitude, and power generation date (June 8) are passed to the prediction calculation, and the calculation results every 10 minutes for the horizontal plane, the inclined surface, and the whole sky according to time. Obtained.

  The hourly solar radiation amount was corrected with the sunlight correction factor, and the total solar radiation amount was calculated by the above equation (12) (see FIG. 14A (c)).

  The corresponding power generation efficiency pattern was acquired (see FIGS. 14C (a) and 14 (b)). The pattern identification keys were Company M, Type K, and Summer.

  Cumulative solar radiation was calculated for each hour, and cumulative solar radiation was input for each hour in an approximate expression to determine the corresponding power generation efficiency. The difference between the reference temperature when generating the power generation efficiency pattern and the predicted temperature on the forecast date was calculated, and the power generation efficiency was corrected by the temperature. The power generation amount was obtained by multiplying the corrected power generation efficiency by the total solar radiation amount (not the cumulative solar radiation amount) at that time and the maximum output (see FIG. 14D (a)).

  A graph was created to compare the output power generation amount with the actual power generation results. A difference of 1 kWh between the predicted power generation amount at 12:00 and the actual power generation amount is presumed to be output suppression due to voltage increase (see FIG. 14D (b)).

  The third embodiment is an example in the case where the influence of a plurality of roofs and shades is taken into account, and is for predicting the amount of power generation from the weather results.

  In the photovoltaic power generation apparatus installed in Ishigaki Island, Okinawa Prefecture, the power generation amount on October 19, 2011 was predicted using past weather record data. This solar power generation device is located 2.0 km away from the Ishigakijima Regional Meteorological Observatory.

  The specifications of this solar power generation device were as follows.

Location coordinates: North latitude 24 degrees 15.2 minutes, East longitude 124 degrees 9.8 minutes Altitude: 6 meters Orientation of roof 1: East direction, tilt angle: 33.5 degrees, maximum output: 1.2 kW
Orientation of roof 2: southward, inclination angle: 27 degrees, maximum output: 2.4 kW
Orientation of roof 3: West direction, inclination angle: 33.5 degrees, maximum output: 1.2KW
Panel equipment: Manufacturer = M company, Model = K model (polycrystalline)
Sunshade Obstacle: Due to the eastern obstacle, the solar panel becomes shaded from 8:15 to 9:14. Due to the west obstacle, the solar panel is shaded from 16:15 until sunset (see FIG. 15A (a)).

  The prediction calculation procedure was as follows.

We obtained the weather results for October 19th at the nearest observation station (Ishigakijima Local Meteorological Observatory) with “weather” observations. Next, the weather results at 10-minute intervals on October 19 were obtained from the nearest observing station where “humidity”, “temperature” and “precipitation” were observed. The weather function for October in Ishigakijima area was acquired. A 10 minute interval weather function was applied to the acquired “weather” results in the following manner.
・ Sunny / Sunny / Light clouding → Sunny function or clear cloud composition function / Cloudy → Cloudy function or clear cloud composition function Function And the weather function was used to calculate the sun correction factor. The air permeability (= 0.700) of the end of October of Ishigakijima district was acquired.

  Therefore, the values of atmospheric transmittance, location coordinates, roof orientation, angle, altitude, and forecast date (October 19th) are passed to the forecast calculation, and the calculation results for every minute of the horizontal plane, the inclined surface, and the whole sky by time. Obtained.

  Subsequently, a shadow determination process was performed. As a result of the determination, it became clear that the east side became a shade from 8:15 am, the shade continued until 9:14, and the west side became a shade from 16:15 to sunset. In the time zone when it becomes a shade, the amount of solar radiation on the inclined surface was set to zero, and the solar radiation was only on the horizontal plane (scattered light). Processing was performed in units of 1 minute, but the processing results were automatically tabulated every 10 minutes.

  Thereafter, the solar radiation amount every 10 minutes was corrected with the sunlight correction factor, and the total solar radiation amount was calculated for the upper limit, the average, and the lower limit using the above formula (12).

  In addition, the corresponding power generation efficiency pattern was obtained. Here, the pattern identification keys were M company, K type, and summer.

  Cumulative solar radiation was obtained for each hour, and cumulative solar radiation was input for each hour in an approximate expression to determine the corresponding power generation efficiency. The difference between the reference temperature at the time of pattern creation and the predicted temperature on the forecast date was calculated, and the power generation efficiency was corrected by the temperature. The power generation amount was obtained by multiplying the corrected power generation efficiency by the total solar radiation amount (not cumulative solar radiation amount) at that time and the maximum output.

  The power generation amount prediction results of the roofs 1, 2, and 3 are as shown in FIGS. 15B (a) to 15 (c), respectively.

  When the output electric power generation amount was made into the graph according to time, it became like FIG. 15A (b).

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 10 Power generation amount prediction apparatus 20 Advance preparation part 21 User information registration part 22 Weather function creation registration part 23 Weather performance observation point information registration part 24 Atmospheric transmittance creation registration part 25 Shading obstacle registration part 26 Power generation efficiency pattern creation registration part 30 Information storage unit 31 Roof information registration unit 32 Weather function storage unit 33 Station information storage unit 34 Atmospheric transmittance storage unit 35 Shadow obstacle information storage unit 36 Power generation efficiency pattern storage unit 40 Prediction calculation processing unit 41 Prediction calculation unit 45 Prediction Power generation amount transmission unit 50 Internet 60 Solar power generation device 70 Electricity supplier 80 Weather forecast provider 90 Weather performance provider

Claims (10)

A method of predicting the amount of power generation at the time of desired power generation of a solar power generation device,
From the power generation results of the solar power generation device, obtain a power generation efficiency pattern specific to the solar power generation device and an approximate expression representing the power generation efficiency pattern, which indicate the correlation between the accumulated solar radiation amount and the hourly power generation efficiency. ,
Obtain the total amount of solar radiation by time from sunrise to sunset at the installation location of the solar power generation device, using the actual value of atmospheric transmittance of the installation location,
A weather function representing the correlation between humidity and sunshine rate is obtained from past weather results at the installation location, and a sunshine correction factor is obtained using the weather function, and the atmospheric transmittance is calculated using the sunshine correction factor. Adjust the effect of attenuation by clouds and humidity,
Assuming that the solar power generation apparatus accumulates the solar radiation amount by the hourly global solar radiation amount, the cumulative global solar radiation amount is calculated,
Using the approximate expression representing the power generation efficiency pattern, the hourly power generation efficiency of the solar power generation device is determined from the cumulative total solar radiation amount,
By correcting the hourly power generation efficiency with a correction coefficient corresponding to the difference between the reference temperature when the power generation efficiency pattern is obtained and the expected temperature at the time of power generation, the corrected hourly power generation efficiency is obtained,
By multiplying the corrected hourly power generation efficiency by the hourly total solar radiation amount and the maximum output of the solar power generation device, the hourly power generation amount of the solar power generation device is obtained, A method for predicting the amount of power generation in solar power generation.   The power generation amount prediction method for solar power generation according to claim 1, wherein the atmospheric transmittance is adjusted so as to coincide with the total solar radiation amount during south-central time of observation results.   2. When calculating the hourly global solar radiation amount, calculating 60 times while advancing the time by one minute, and adding the results to (1/60) to obtain the solar radiation amount for one hour. Or a method for predicting a power generation amount in solar power generation according to 2;   The power generation amount prediction method for solar power generation according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein the weather function is replaced according to a weather forecast at the installation location.   When calculating the future hourly power generation amount of the solar power generation device, the weather function is replaced using a weather forecast, and when calculating the past hourly power generation amount of the solar power generation device, the weather results The method for predicting the amount of power generation in solar power generation according to any one of claims 1 to 4, wherein the weather function is replaced by using a power source. A device that predicts the amount of power generated by a solar power generation device during desired power generation,
From the power generation results of the solar power generation device, a power generation efficiency pattern specific to the solar power generation device and an approximate expression representing the power generation efficiency pattern, which indicate a correlation between the accumulated solar radiation amount and hourly power generation efficiency, are obtained. Means,
Means for determining the actual value of the atmospheric transmittance at the installation location of the solar power generation device;
Means for obtaining a weather function representing a correlation between humidity and sunshine ratio from past weather results at the installation location;
Obtain the total amount of solar radiation by time from sunrise to sunset at the installation location of the solar power generation device, using the actual value of the atmospheric transmittance,
Using the weather function to determine the sunshine correction factor, using the sunshine correction factor to adjust the effect of the atmospheric transmittance attenuated by clouds and humidity,
Assuming that the solar power generation apparatus accumulates the solar radiation amount by the hourly global solar radiation amount, the cumulative global solar radiation amount is calculated,
Using the approximate expression representing the power generation efficiency pattern, the hourly power generation efficiency of the solar power generation device is determined from the cumulative total solar radiation amount,
By correcting the hourly power generation efficiency with a correction coefficient corresponding to the difference between the reference temperature when the power generation efficiency pattern is obtained and the expected temperature at the time of power generation, the corrected hourly power generation efficiency is obtained,
By multiplying the corrected hourly power generation efficiency by the hourly total solar radiation amount and the maximum output of the solar power generation device, the hourly power generation amount of the solar power generation device is obtained, Power generation amount prediction device for solar power generation.   The power generation amount prediction apparatus for solar power generation according to claim 6, wherein the atmospheric transmittance is adjusted so as to coincide with the total solar radiation amount during south-central time of observation results.   7. When calculating the solar radiation amount by time, calculate 60 times while advancing the time by one minute, add the results, and set to (1/60) to obtain the solar radiation amount for one hour. Or a power generation amount prediction apparatus for solar power generation according to 7;   The power generation amount prediction apparatus for solar power generation according to any one of claims 6 to 8, wherein the weather function is replaced according to a weather forecast at the installation location.   When calculating the future hourly power generation amount of the solar power generation device, the weather function is replaced using a weather forecast, and when calculating the past hourly power generation amount of the solar power generation device, the weather results The power generation amount prediction apparatus for solar power generation according to any one of claims 6 to 9, wherein the weather function is replaced by using a power generator.

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