JP4209830B2 - Medical cost prediction system, medical cost prediction server, medical cost prediction method, and program - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to a medical cost prediction system, a medical cost prediction server, a medical cost prediction method, and a program for predicting future medical costs related to an organization.

  2. Description of the Related Art Conventionally, a reception information analysis service for providing health information to a health insurance association has been provided for analyzing the reception information about members of a health insurance association and providing the medical checkup status of each member and the medical treatment status of each medical institution. There were no documents that show the technical characteristics of this service.

  However, in the prior art such as the above example, it was impossible to predict with high accuracy the medical expenses of members who will be borne by the health insurance association in the future. Therefore, it was not possible to predict the future financial condition of the health insurance association based on future medical expenses.

  In order to solve the above-mentioned problem, according to the first aspect of the present invention, a medical cost prediction system that includes a group terminal and a medical cost prediction server connected via a network, and predicts a future medical cost of the group. In the medical cost prediction server, the incidence correlation data that stores the correlation between the age and the incidence of multiple types of chronic diseases, and the incidence correlation database storing at least individual attributes including gender, smoking, drinking, And a lifestyle database that stores a lifestyle coefficient indicating the degree to which the lifestyle including at least one exercise habit changes the incidence of chronic disease in association with the type of lifestyle for each type of chronic disease; , If the screening data consisting of multiple test items indicating the health status of the insured person deviates from the predetermined reference value, the incidence of chronic diseases related to the insured person is corrected Chronic disease in which the correction data that stores the screening data coefficient associated with the examination item and the type of chronic disease and the standard medical expenses for treatment of the chronic disease are stored in association with the type of the chronic disease A non-chronic disease medical cost database that stores medical cost correlation data showing correlation with age of non-chronic disease medical expenses that are medical expenses due to illness or injury other than chronic diseases, according to individual attributes Have

  The group terminal will receive at least personal attributes including gender and age, notification information indicating chronic diseases that have already occurred, screening data, lifestyle, and personal information including dependent attributes and notification information. Accepts multiple insured persons who belong to an organization, accepts recruitment plans that indicate the personal attributes of the employers that the organization plans to hire in the future, and organization information including retirement age in the organization, The personal information on the insured person and the group information are transmitted to the medical cost prediction server.

The medical expenses prediction server further receives a member database for storing personal information and group information related to a plurality of insured persons from a group terminal and stores the medical expenses for the group at a certain point in the future. In response to this command, for each type of chronic disease, insured persons and their dependents whose age at a future time does not exceed the retirement age of the group are extracted from the member database. The insured person and dependent who are recorded in the notice information are classified as having an onset of chronic illness, and the insured person and dependent who are not recorded to be classified as unaffected The incidence rate correlation data is sequentially read from the incidence rate correlation database using each of the classification unit and the individual attributes stored in the member database regarding the unaffected person as search keys. , Read the incidence of chronic illness corresponding to the future age as the future incidence of chronic illness for each unaffected person, and memorize in the member database about the hires included in the recruitment plan up to the future time point Using the individual attributes as search keys, the incidence correlation data is sequentially read from the incidence correlation database, and the incidence of chronic disease corresponding to the employer's future age is used as the future incidence of chronic disease related to the employer. Reads out the incidence rate by attribute and reads out the examination data coefficient from the correction database using the examination data of the insured person among the unaffected persons as a search key, and the attributed incidence rate reading part insures among the unaffected persons A screening data reflection unit that corrects the onset rate read for the person with the screening data coefficient, and the insured person among the unaffected persons A lifestyle reflection unit that reads out a lifestyle coefficient from the lifestyle database using the lifestyle stored in the member database as a search key, and corrects the onset rate corrected by the examination data reflection unit with the lifestyle coefficient, and a lifestyle Aggregate the incidence rate for the insured person among the unaffected individuals corrected by the reflection unit and the incidence rate for dependents and employers among the unaffected individuals read by the attribute-specific incidence rate reading unit. The average incidence rate calculation unit that calculates the average incidence rate of chronic diseases for each type of chronic disease at the future time point in the group, and the average incidence rate Chronic illness by multiplying the combined number of onset and prospective employers by the standard medical costs stored in the chronic illness medical cost database for chronic illnesses Calculate the future medical costs for the non-developed and the employer of the organization, and in addition to the standard medical costs stored in the chronic disease medical cost database for chronic diseases, Calculate the future medical costs for the organization for the chronic disease by adding the medical costs multiplied by the number of pre-existing persons, and store all future chronic medical costs stored in the chronic disease medical cost database By calculating and summing up the diseases, the chronic disease medical cost calculation unit that calculates the future medical costs for the relevant organization for all chronic diseases, and all insured persons classified by the classification unit that do not exceed the retirement age You can search the personal attributes stored in the member database for each person, their dependents, and hires hired by the future. As the medical expenses correlation data is read from the non-chronic disease medical expenses database, the non-chronic disease medical expenses corresponding to the future age are read, respectively, and the non-chronic disease medical expenses are all insured and dependent for the organization. And the non-chronic illness medical cost calculation unit that calculates the future non-chronic illness medical cost for the organization by counting the employers and the chronic illness medical cost calculation unit and non-chronic illness medical cost calculation for the group By adding the calculation results of the department , collect the total medical cost output unit that calculates and outputs the total medical cost for the group at a future time point, and the receipt data indicating the medical cost for treatment of the disease Receipt that calculates the average value of medical expenses for each chronic disease and updates the standard medical expenses for each chronic disease stored in the chronic disease medical expenses database with the aggregated average value And a total of part.

  The member database further receives and stores the salary performance of the insured person who belongs to the group last year or this year and the expected rate of future salary increase as personal information. The insurance association database that stores the rate and the union share of medical expenses for each insurance association, and the estimated total salary of the insured who will belong to the organization in the future is stored in the membership database last year. Or the future premium collection amount that the insurance association collects from the organization by multiplying the current insurance premium rate calculated based on the actual salary of the current fiscal year and the expected rate of future salary increase and stored in the insurance association database Health insurance revenue calculation unit that calculates the future income of the insurance association using the insurance premium collection amount and the future total physician output by the group total medical cost output unit It is necessary to balance the health insurance expenditure calculation unit that calculates the future expenditure of the insurance association by using the amount multiplied by the current union burden ratio of the insurance association, and the future income and expenditure of the insurance association. The balance terminal calculation unit further calculates at least one of the insurance premium rate and the union burden ratio and transmits the calculation result to the group terminal. The group terminal displays the calculation result received from the balance balance calculation unit. Also good.

  In addition, if the future revenue and expenditure is insufficient for expenditure, the equilibrium balance calculation unit can cancel the shortage by reversing the reserves accumulated to the future according to a predetermined plan. If the shortage amount cannot be offset by reversing reserves, the insurance premium calculation unit calculates the premium income obtained when the premium rate is changed to a predetermined upper limit, and the insurance premium rate is changed. When the total amount of premium income and reserves later is insufficient for expenditure, a warning message may be output to the effect that the finance of the health insurance association will break down.

  The member database further stores the past medical examination data of the insured, and the medical examination data reflecting unit compares the current medical examination data of the insured person stored in the member database with the past medical examination data. When the improvement amount is determined and the improvement amount of the examination data is larger than a threshold value predetermined for each examination item, the examination data coefficient may be corrected to be small. The member database further stores the past medical examination data of the insured, and the medical examination data reflecting unit compares the current medical examination data of the insured person stored in the member database with the past medical examination data. The deterioration amount may be determined, and if the deterioration amount of the screening data is larger than a threshold value determined in advance for each screening item, the screening data coefficient may be corrected to be large.

  The medical cost prediction server collects receipt data indicating medical costs for treatment of diseases, calculates an average value of medical costs for each chronic disease, and stores the standard for each chronic disease stored in the chronic disease medical cost database You may further provide the receipt total part which updates medical expenses by the total value averaged.

  The chronic disease medical expenses database stores medical expenses at the time of hospitalization and medical expenses at hospital visits as standard medical expenses for chronic diseases. Read the medical expenses at the time of hospitalization for the disease and the medical expenses at the time of hospitalization, and multiply the medical expenses at the time of hospitalization for a certain percentage of the undeveloped persons and employers at a future time, and go to the hospital for the remaining number of persons By multiplying the medical expenses at the time, the future medical expenses for the organization regarding the chronic disease may be calculated.

According to the second aspect of the present invention, the medical cost prediction server that predicts the future medical cost of an organization uses at least gender as onset rate correlation data indicating a correlation between age and onset rate regarding multiple types of chronic diseases. Chronic disease types, including the incidence correlation database memorized for each individual attribute, and lifestyle factors indicating the degree to which lifestyle habits including at least one of smoking, drinking, and exercise habits change the incidence of chronic diseases Separately, if the lifestyle database stored in association with the type of lifestyle and the examination data consisting of a plurality of examination items indicating the health status of the insured deviate from the predetermined reference value, the insured A correction database that stores screening data coefficients for correcting the incidence of chronic diseases related to the elderly in association with test items and types of chronic diseases, and a standard physician for treating chronic diseases Medical expenses correlation that shows the correlation between the age of chronic disease medical expenses database that stores expenses in association with the types of chronic diseases and non-chronic medical expenses that are medical expenses due to illness or injury other than chronic diseases Non-chronic disease medical expenses database storing data by personal attribute, and personal attributes including at least gender and age related to the insured person belonging to the group from the group terminal connected via the network, Annual information on personal information including notification information, screening data, lifestyle, and personal attributes and notification information of dependents, as well as personal attributes of employers that the organization plans to adopt in the future The member database that stores the personal information and group information received, and at some point in the future. In the case of receiving a command to predict the medical expenses for the organization, the age at a future time does not exceed the retirement age of the organization among the insured person from the member database for each type of chronic disease The insured person and their dependents are extracted and the insured person and dependents whose chronic information is already recorded in the notification information are classified as those who have already developed chronic disease. Classifier that classifies the insured person and the dependent who are not recorded as uninsured insured persons, and the individual attribute stored in the member database regarding the unaffected persons as search keys, the incidence correlation database The incidence rate correlation data is read out sequentially from the above, and the incidence rate of chronic diseases corresponding to future age is read as the future incidence rate of chronic diseases for each of the unaffected individuals. Using the individual attributes stored in the member database for recruiters included in the recruitment plan up to the next time as retrieval keys, the incidence correlation data is sequentially read from the incidence correlation database to correspond to the future age of the employer. Examination from the correction database using the attribute-specific incidence reading section that reads the incidence of chronic diseases to be performed as the future incidence of chronic diseases related to the employer and the examination data of the insured person among the unaffected individuals as search keys The data coefficient is read, and the incidence rate read by the attribute for the insured person among the unaffected persons is corrected with the examination data reflection part that corrects the incidence rate by the examination data coefficient, and the insured person among the unaffected persons Using the lifestyle stored in the member database as a search key, the lifestyle coefficient is read from the lifestyle database and verified. The lifestyle reflecting unit that corrects the incidence corrected by the data reflecting unit with the lifestyle coefficient, the incidence related to the insured person among the unaffected persons corrected by the lifestyle reflecting unit, and the attribute-specific incidence reading unit By calculating and averaging the incidence rates for dependents and employers among the undeveloped persons read by the The average incidence rate calculation unit that calculates the average incidence rate for each type of chronic disease, the average incidence rate, the number of people who have not developed the disease and the number of hires at a future time, and the chronic disease medical cost database To calculate the future medical expenses for non-developed persons and employers of the group for chronic diseases, and for chronic diseases, chronic medical expenses data for chronic diseases. Future medical expenses for the organization in relation to chronic diseases by adding the medical expenses multiplied by the number of pre-existing persons of the organization stored in the member database to the standard medical expenses stored in the Chronic disease that calculates future medical costs for the relevant organization for all chronic diseases by calculating and counting the future medical costs for all chronic diseases stored in the chronic disease medical cost database Stored in the membership database for all insured persons and their dependents who have not exceeded retirement age, and hired employees hired up to a future point of time, classified by the medical expenses calculation section and classification section The medical cost correlation data is read from the non-chronic disease medical cost database using the personal attribute as a search key, and the non-chronic medical cost corresponding to the future age is read Non-chronic that calculates future non-chronic disease medical expenses for the group by reading each other and counting the non-chronic disease medical expenses for all insured persons, dependents and employers for the group Calculate and output the total medical expenses for the organization at a future point in time by adding the calculation results of the chronic medical expenses calculator and non-chronic medical expenses calculator for the relevant medical expenses calculator Chronic diseases stored in the chronic disease medical cost database by collecting receipt data indicating the medical costs for the treatment of the disease and calculating the average value of medical costs for each chronic disease And a receipt totaling unit that updates the standard medical expenses for each standard with the average value .

  According to the 3rd form of this invention, it is provided with the group terminal connected through the network, and a medical expenses prediction server, and a medical expenses prediction server shows the correlation with the age regarding multiple types of chronic diseases, and an onset rate. Incidence rate correlation database storing incidence rate correlation data for each individual attribute including at least gender and occupation, and the degree to which lifestyle habits including at least one habit of smoking, drinking, and exercise change the incidence of chronic diseases A lifestyle database that stores lifestyle coefficients corresponding to the types of lifestyle diseases for each type of chronic disease, and screening data consisting of a plurality of test items that indicate the health status of the insured person is a predetermined standard. When it is out of value, the screening data coefficient for correcting the incidence of chronic disease related to the insured is stored in association with the test item and the type of chronic disease. Chronic disease medical cost database that stores a positive database, standard medical expenses related to treatment of chronic diseases in association with the types of chronic diseases, and non-chronic medical treatment that is medical expenses due to illness or injury other than chronic diseases Medical expenses for predicting the future medical expenses of an organization using a medical expenses prediction system having a non-chronic disease medical expenses database storing medical expenses correlation data indicating correlation of expenses with age. A prediction method is provided.

The medical cost prediction method is based on personal attributes including at least gender and age, notification information indicating chronic diseases that have already developed, screening data, lifestyle, and personal attributes and notification information of dependents. An organization that includes input of personal information including multiple insured persons who belong to the organization, an employment plan that shows the individual attributes of the employer that the organization intends to employ in the future, and the retirement age of the organization Receiving the input of information, and transmitting the personal information on the plurality of insured persons and the group information to the medical cost prediction server; and in the medical cost prediction server, the member database is received from the group terminal by the plurality of insured persons. Receiving and storing personal information and group information about the person himself / herself, and the classifier should predict the medical expenses for the group at some point in the future If the command is received, the insured person and dependents whose age at the future time does not exceed the retirement age of the group are extracted from the member database for each type of chronic disease, and the chronic disease has already developed. The insured person and dependent who are recorded in the notice information are classified as having an onset of chronic illness, and the insured person and dependent who are not recorded to be classified as unaffected The step and the attribute-specific onset rate reading unit sequentially reads out the onset rate correlation data from the onset rate correlation database using each of the individual attributes stored in the member database regarding the unaffected person as search keys, and corresponds to the future age Read the incidence of chronic illness as the future incidence of chronic illness for each of those who have not yet developed, and include them in the recruitment plan up to the future Using the individual attributes stored in the member database as search keys, the incidence correlation data is sequentially read from the incidence correlation database, and the incidence of chronic diseases corresponding to the employer's future age is determined. The step of reading as the future incidence of chronic diseases, and the screening data reflection unit calculates the screening data coefficient from the correction database using the screening data stored in the member database for the uninsured person as the search key. The step of reading and correcting the incidence rate read by the attribute-specific incidence rate reading unit for the insured person among the unaffected individuals with the screening data coefficient, and the lifestyle reflecting unit is insured among the unaffected individuals Using the person's lifestyle as a search key, the lifestyle coefficient is read from the lifestyle database and corrected by the screening data reflection unit. A step of correcting the incidence rate by the lifestyle coefficient, an average incidence rate calculation unit, an incidence rate for the insured person among the unaffected individuals corrected by the lifestyle reflection unit, and an attribute-specific incidence rate reading unit The average incidence of chronic illnesses in the group's undeveloped persons and employers at a future time point is calculated by calculating the average of the incidences of dependents and employers among the undeveloped persons read and taking the average. A step of calculating the rate for each type of chronic disease, and the chronic disease medical cost calculation unit includes the average incidence rate, the number of non-incidence persons and employers at future time points, and the chronic disease medical cost database for chronic diseases Multiply by the standard medical costs stored in the table to calculate the future medical costs for those who have not yet developed the organization and employers for chronic diseases. Calculate the future medical expenses for the organization in relation to chronic diseases by adding the medical expenses multiplied by the number of people with pre-existing cases stored in the member database to the standard medical expenses stored in the database Calculating the future medical expenses for all the chronic diseases by calculating and totaling the future medical expenses for all chronic diseases stored in the chronic disease medical expenses database; and The Non-Chronic Disease Health Expenses Calculation Department will enter the membership database for all insured persons and their dependents who do not exceed the retirement age classified by the Classification Department, as well as each hired person hired by the future. Read medical expenses correlation data from non-chronic medical expenses database using the stored personal attributes as search keys to support future ages Each non-chronic disease medical cost is read for each insured person, dependent, and employer for the group, and the future non-chronic disease medical cost for the group is calculated. The calculation step and the total medical cost output unit of the group add the calculation results of the chronic disease medical cost calculation unit and the non-chronic disease medical cost calculation unit for the group, so that the total medical cost for the group at a future time Chronology stored in the chronic disease medical cost database by calculating and outputting the cost, and collecting the receipt data indicating the medical cost for treatment of the disease, calculating the average value of the medical cost for each chronic disease And updating the standard medical expenses for each disease with the aggregated average value .

  According to the 4th form of this invention, it is provided with the group terminal connected through the network, and a medical expenses prediction server, and a medical expenses prediction server shows the correlation with the age regarding multiple types of chronic diseases, and an onset rate. The incidence correlation database that stores incidence correlation data for each individual attribute including at least sex, and the degree of change in the incidence of chronic disease by lifestyle including at least one habit of smoking, drinking, and exercise The lifestyle database that stores lifestyle coefficients in association with the types of lifestyle for each type of chronic disease, and the screening data that consists of multiple test items that indicate the health status of the insured deviate from the predetermined criteria The correction data base that stores the screening data coefficient for correcting the incidence of chronic disease related to the insured in association with the test item and the type of chronic disease. And the chronic medical expenses database that stores the standard medical expenses related to the treatment of chronic diseases in association with the types of chronic diseases, and non-chronic medical expenses that are medical expenses due to illness or injury other than chronic diseases A program for predicting the future medical expenses of an organization is provided in a medical expenses prediction system having a non-chronic disease medical expenses database that stores medical expenses correlation data indicating correlation with age for each individual attribute. .

  The program accepts personal attributes including at least gender and age, notification information indicating chronic diseases that have already developed, screening data, lifestyle, and personal information including dependent personal attributes and notification information. Accepts multiple insured persons who belong to the company, accepts recruitment plans that show the individual attributes of the employers that the organization plans to hire in the future, and organization information including retirement age in the organization, The function for causing the medical expenses prediction server to transmit the personal information about the insured person and the group information is realized in the group terminal.

Furthermore, the medical cost prediction server receives a member information management function for receiving and storing personal information and group information on a plurality of insured persons from a group terminal, and predicts a medical cost for the group at a certain point in the future. When a command to the effect is received, for each type of chronic disease, insured persons and their dependents whose future age does not exceed the retirement age of the group are extracted from the member database, and chronic diseases are identified. Classify insured persons and dependents who have already been reported in the notice information as having suffered from chronic disease, and insured persons and dependents who have not been recorded as unaffected The incidence rate correlation data is sequentially read from the incidence rate correlation database using the classification function for classifying as a person and the individual attributes stored in the member database for unaffected persons as search keys. The rate of chronic disease corresponding to future age is read as the future rate of chronic disease for each unaffected person and stored in the member database for recruiters included in the recruitment plan up to a future point in time. Using the individual attributes as search keys, the incidence correlation data is sequentially read from the incidence correlation database, and the incidence of chronic diseases corresponding to the employer's future age is determined as the future incidence of chronic diseases related to the employer. Read attribute-specific incidence rate reading function, and read the examination data coefficient from the correction database using the examination data stored in the member database for the insured person among the unaffected individuals, and the attribute-specific incidence rate reading function The incidence rate read for the insured person among the unaffected individuals is corrected by the screening data coefficient. Using the data reflection function and the lifestyle of the insured person among unaffected individuals as a search key, the lifestyle coefficient is read from the lifestyle database, and the incidence rate corrected by the screening data reflection function is corrected with the lifestyle coefficient. Onset rate related to the insured person among the unaffected individuals corrected by the lifestyle reflecting function and the lifestyle reflecting function, and the onset rate for the dependent and employer among the undeveloped cases read by the attribute-specific onset rate reading function An average incidence rate calculation function that calculates the average incidence rate of chronic diseases in the non-onset and employers of the group at a future point in time for each type of chronic disease Multiply the average incidence by the total number of non-incidents and future employers and the standard medical costs stored in the chronic disease medical cost database for chronic diseases. To calculate the future medical expenses for non-developed persons and employers of the relevant organization for chronic diseases, and for the chronic medical conditions, the standard medical expenses stored in the chronic disease medical expenses database are stored in the member database. By adding the medical expenses multiplied by the number of people who have already suffered from the group, the future medical expenses for the group regarding chronic diseases are calculated, and the future medical expenses are stored in the chronic disease medical expenses database. By calculating and aggregating all chronic diseases that are present, the chronic disease medical cost calculation function that calculates the future medical expenses related to the relevant organization for all chronic diseases and the retirement age classified by the classification function are not exceeded. All insured persons, their dependents, and each hired person hired by the future are stored in the member database. The medical cost correlation data is read out from the non-chronic disease medical cost database using the personal attribute as a search key, and the non-chronic disease medical cost corresponding to the future age is read, respectively. By calculating the insured person, dependents, and employers, the non-chronic disease medical cost calculation function that calculates the future non-chronic disease medical cost for the group, and the chronic disease medical cost calculation for the group By adding the calculation results of the function and non-chronic disease medical cost calculation function, the total medical cost output function that calculates and outputs the total medical cost for the organization at a future time point, and the medical treatment for treatment of the disease Standard medical expenses for each chronic disease stored in the chronic disease medical expenses database by collecting receipt data indicating expenses and calculating the average value of medical expenses for each chronic disease , To realize the receipt aggregation function of updating the average value obtained by aggregating.

  The above summary of the invention does not enumerate all the necessary features of the present invention, and sub-combinations of these feature groups can also be the invention.

  Hereinafter, the present invention will be described through embodiments of the invention. However, the following embodiments do not limit the invention according to the scope of claims, and all combinations of features described in the embodiments are included. It is not necessarily essential for the solution of the invention.

  FIG. 1 shows an example of a system configuration of a medical cost prediction system 100 according to an embodiment of the present invention. The medical cost prediction system 100 is intended to provide a medical cost prediction service that predicts future medical costs for each company or each insured based on the health status of the insured. Furthermore, it aims at predicting the future financial situation of the health insurance association based on the predicted medical expenses. A company is an example of an organization according to the present invention. An example of an organization may be a mutual aid association.

  The medical cost prediction system 100 includes a medical cost prediction server 50, a company terminal 10, an individual member terminal 12, and an insurance association terminal 20 connected via a network 200. The medical cost prediction server 50 is operated and managed by a service operating company that operates a medical cost prediction service realized by the present system. The insurance association terminal 20a and the insurance association terminal 20b are used by the health insurance association A and the health insurance association B, respectively. The company terminal 10a is used by a company belonging to the health insurance association A, and the company terminal 10b is used by a company belonging to the health insurance association B. The health insurance association may be a corporate health insurance established by a large company. In this case, the health insurance association (corporate health insurance) and the company correspond one-on-one.

  The company terminal 10 accepts input of personal information such as personal attributes of the insured person and examination data, and group information such as the retirement age of the company and future employment plans, and a medical cost together with a group code for identifying the company. It transmits to the prediction server 50. The medical cost prediction server 50 predicts a future medical cost for the company based on information received from the company terminal 10. Then, the future medical expenses of the health insurance association are calculated by calculating and tabulating the future medical expenses for all companies belonging to the health insurance association. Furthermore, the future premium income of the health insurance association is calculated from the predicted salary of the insured person and the insurance premium rate, and the future financial status of the health insurance association is calculated using the future medical expenses expenditure and premium income. Predict.

  In the case of corporate health insurance, the quality of the health management status of the insured insured person is directly linked to the medical expenses expenditure of the health insurance association, which in turn affects the insurance premiums borne by the insured person and the company. Therefore, simulating and disclosing the future finances of the health insurance association is also effective for improving the health management of the insured.

  FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating an example of a functional configuration of the medical cost prediction server 50. The medical cost prediction server 50 includes, as a database structure, an onset rate correlation database 54 that stores, on a personal attribute basis, onset rate correlation data indicating a correlation between age and onset rate regarding chronic diseases, and an onset rate of chronic diseases whose lifestyle is chronic disease. A lifestyle database 58 that stores lifestyle coefficients indicating the degree of change in association with lifestyle types for each type of chronic disease, and a screening that includes a plurality of test items that indicate the health status of the insured A correction database 56 that stores, in association with examination items and types of chronic diseases, examination data coefficients for correcting the incidence of chronic diseases related to the insured when the data deviates from a predetermined reference value; Chronic disease medical cost database 60 storing standard medical costs for treatment of chronic diseases by type of chronic diseases, and diseases or injuries excluding chronic diseases The medical cost correlation data indicating the correlation with the age of the non-chronic disease medical cost, which is a medical cost, and the non-chronic disease medical cost database 82 storing the individual medical attributes, and the company terminal 10 A member database 52 which receives personal information and group information related to the company and stores it in association with a group code for identifying the company;

  The personal information stored in the member database 52 includes personal attributes including insured sex, occupation, age and future salary, notification information indicating chronic diseases that have already occurred, screening data, and lifestyle habits. And personal attributes and notification information of the insured dependent. The group information also includes an employment plan that shows the personal attributes of employers that the company plans to employ in the future, and the retirement age at the company.

  In addition, when the medical cost prediction server 50 receives a command for predicting medical expenses for each company at a certain time in the future, the age at the future time is determined from the member database for each type of chronic disease. Insured persons and their dependents who do not exceed the age are extracted, and insured persons and dependents whose chronic disease has already been recorded are classified as those who have already developed chronic diseases. The classification unit 62 that classifies the insured person and the dependent who are not recorded as such as an unaffected person, and the individual attribute regarding the unaffected person, respectively, as a search key, the incidence correlation data sequentially from the incidence correlation database And read the incidence of chronic illness corresponding to the future age as the future incidence of chronic illness for each of those who have not yet developed, Read the incidence correlation data sequentially from the incidence correlation database using the individual attributes of the employer as search keys, and determine the incidence of chronic disease corresponding to the employer's future age, and the future of chronic disease related to the employer. And an attribute-specific onset rate reading unit 64 that reads as an onset rate. Here, the onset rate output by the attribute-specific onset rate reading unit 64 is an average onset rate for a person having the same personal attribute for a certain chronic disease.

  The medical cost prediction server 50 further reads out the examination data coefficient from the correction database using the examination data of the insured person among the unaffected persons as a search key, and the attribute-specific incidence rate reading unit relates to the insured person among the unaffected persons. Using the screening data reflection unit 66 for correcting the read incidence rate with the screening data coefficient, and using the lifestyle of the insured person among the unaffected persons as a search key, the lifestyle coefficient is read from the lifestyle database and the screening data is reflected. A lifestyle reflecting unit 68 that corrects the incidence corrected by the unit with the lifestyle coefficient. The medical cost prediction server 50 uses the functions of the examination data reflection unit 66 and the lifestyle reflection unit 68 to calculate the health risk of the insured person when compared with the average of persons having the same personal attribute. And can be appropriately reflected in the incidence based on lifestyle. The lifestyle reflecting unit 68 transmits the incidence rate of the chronic disease of the insured person corrected based on the examination data and the lifestyle according to a request from the individual member terminal 12.

  The medical cost prediction server 50 further includes the incidence rate related to the insured person among the undeveloped persons corrected by the lifestyle reflecting unit and the dependent and the employer among the unaffected persons read by the attribute-specific onset rate reading unit. The average incidence rate is calculated for each type of chronic disease by calculating the average incidence rate of the chronic diseases in the non-onset and employers of the company at a future time The unit 70 is provided.

  The medical cost prediction server 50 further multiplies the average incidence by the total number of non-onset persons and employers at a future time, and the standard medical expenses for chronic diseases, so that those who are not yet affected by the company with respect to chronic diseases. And calculate the future medical expenses for the employer, and add the medical expenses obtained by multiplying the standard medical expenses for chronic illnesses by the number of people who have already developed the disease, Calculate the medical expenses and calculate the future medical expenses for all chronic diseases by calculating the future medical expenses for all chronic diseases stored in the chronic disease medical expenses database. A chronic disease medical cost calculation unit 72 is provided.

  The medical cost prediction server 50 further searches the personal attributes of all the insured persons and their dependents who do not exceed the retirement age classified by the classification unit, and the employers employed until the future time point. The medical expenses correlation data is read from the non-chronic disease medical expenses database, the non-chronic disease medical expenses corresponding to the future age are read, respectively, and the non-chronic disease medical expenses are all insured and dependent for the company. And the non-chronic disease medical cost calculation unit 84 for calculating the future non-chronic disease medical cost for the company by counting the employer, and the chronic disease medical cost calculation unit and the non-chronic disease medical cost for the company. A group total medical cost output unit 73 that calculates and outputs the total medical cost of the company at a future time by adding the calculation results of the calculation unit.

  That is, according to the above configuration, the medical cost prediction server 50 can accurately calculate the total medical cost for the company at a future time point based on the personal information and the company information received from the company terminal 10. .

  The medical cost prediction server 50 further includes an insurance union database 51 that stores the insurance premium rate and the union burden ratio of medical expenses for each insurance union in the health insurance to which the company belongs, and an insured belonging to the company in the future. The future premium of the insurance association is calculated by using the insurance premium collection amount to calculate the future premium collection amount that the insurance association will collect from the company. Using the amount calculated by multiplying the future total medical cost output by the health insurance revenue calculation unit 76 and the group total medical cost output unit by the current union burden ratio of the insurance association, and calculating the future expenditure of the insurance association The health insurance expenditure calculation unit 74 calculates at least one of the insurance premium rate and the union burden ratio necessary for balancing the future income and expenditure of the insurance association, and the calculation result is sent to the company terminal 10 Further comprising a balancing balance calculation unit 78 signals to. The company terminal 10 displays the calculation result received from the balanced balance calculation unit 78.

  The medical cost prediction server 50 further includes a receipt totaling unit 80 that aggregates the member's receipt data and periodically updates the medical costs for each disease in the chronic disease medical cost database 60 and the non-chronic disease medical cost database 82. . Thereby, the precision of the medical expenses which the non-chronic disease medical expenses calculation part 84 and the chronic disease medical expenses calculation part 72 calculate can be improved. The receipt totaling unit 80 reads the insured's medical treatment record from the totaled receipt, and updates the notification information of the insured and the dependent.

  The recording medium 300 includes the company terminal 10, the classification unit 62, the attribute-specific incidence rate reading unit 64, the examination data reflection unit 66, the lifestyle reflection unit 68, the average incidence rate calculation unit 70, the chronic disease medical cost calculation unit 72, the group total Medical cost output unit 73, health insurance expenditure calculation unit 74, health insurance revenue calculation unit 76, balance balance calculation unit 78, receipt tabulation unit 80, non-chronic disease medical cost calculation unit 84, insurance association database 51, member database 52, incidence rate correlation Programs for operating the database 54, the correction database 56, the lifestyle database 58, the chronic disease medical cost database 60, and the non-chronic disease medical cost database 82 are stored. The recording medium 300 may acquire such a program via a network.

  FIG. 3 shows an example of the data format of the incidence correlation database 54. The incidence correlation database 54 stores, for each type of chronic disease, incidence ratio correlation data indicating the correlation between the incidence and age for each individual attribute including sex and occupation. The incidence rate correlation data includes gender and occupational correlation data for the insured at the working age, and average correlation data by gender in all age groups from children to the elderly. Such incidence correlation data is created based on statistical data of the medical community. The attribute-specific onset rate reading unit 64 reads out the onset rate correlation data from the onset rate correlation database 54 using the individual attribute as a search key, and calculates the average incidence of chronic disease in the corresponding attribute for each type of chronic disease. Can be read according to age.

  FIG. 4 shows an example of the data format of the correction database 56. The correction database 56 sets a screening data coefficient indicating the degree of correction of the incidence of chronic disease in accordance with screening data composed of a plurality of testing items indicating the health status of the insured person, exceeding the reference value for each testing item. Stored according to whether it is below (high value) or below (low value). Furthermore, the correction database 56 uses a threshold (change amount threshold) for determining whether or not the amount of change from the previous year of the screening data that exceeds the reference value is a magnitude that should correct the screening data coefficient. Value) and a coefficient correction amount indicating a correction amount when correcting the examination data coefficient are stored for each examination item.

  The correction database 56 is created based on statistical data of the medical community, like the incidence correlation database 54. The examination data reflection unit 66 can easily read out an appropriate examination data coefficient corresponding to the examination data using the examination data of the insured as a search key. Furthermore, using the examination item as a search key, the change amount threshold value and the coefficient correction amount are read, and it is easy to determine whether or not the change amount of the examination data exceeding the reference value is large enough to correct the examination data coefficient. Judgment can be made. In addition, it is possible to read out an appropriate coefficient correction amount when correcting the examination data coefficient. Therefore, the screening data reflection unit 66 can accurately correct the incidence of chronic diseases by individual attribute based on the screening data.

  FIG. 5 shows an example of the data format of the lifestyle database 58. The lifestyle database 58 stores a lifestyle coefficient indicating the degree to which the lifestyle related to smoking, drinking, and exercise changes the incidence of chronic disease in association with the type and degree of lifestyle for each type of chronic disease. ing. For example, with respect to smoking and drinking, a value that does not change the onset rate is associated with a habit that does not have habits or is not harmful to health. On the other hand, regarding exercise, a lifestyle coefficient that changes the onset rate smaller is associated with an increase in the amount of exercise per day. Similar to the incidence correlation database 54 and the correction database 56, the lifestyle habit coefficients are set based on statistical data of the medical community. The lifestyle reflecting unit 68 can easily read out an appropriate lifestyle coefficient according to the lifestyle using the lifestyle of the insured person as a search key. Therefore, the incidence of chronic diseases corrected by the screening data reflection unit 66 can be accurately corrected according to lifestyle.

  FIG. 6 shows an example of the data format of the chronic disease medical expense database 60. The chronic disease medical expenses database 60 stores standard annual medical expenses for treating chronic diseases separately for each type of chronic disease at the time of hospitalization and hospital visit. The medical expenses stored in the chronic disease medical expenses database 60 are updated regularly, for example, once a year by the receipt counting section 80. The chronic disease medical cost calculation unit 72 reads the standard medical cost from the chronic disease medical cost database 60 using the type of chronic disease as a search key.

  FIG. 7 shows an example of the data format of the non-chronic disease medical cost database 82. The non-chronic disease medical cost database 82 stores medical cost correlation data indicating a correlation with non-chronic disease medical costs, which are annual medical costs due to illnesses or injuries, excluding chronic diseases. The dependent persons in the age group are stored according to individual attributes. The data of the non-chronic disease medical cost database 82 is updated regularly, for example, once every year by the receipt totaling unit 80. The non-chronic disease medical cost calculation unit 84 reads the medical cost correlation data from the non-chronic disease medical cost database 82 using the personal attribute as a search key, and can easily read the non-chronic disease medical cost according to the age.

  FIG. 8 shows an example of the data format of the insurance association database 51. The insurance association database 51 includes the individual contribution rate (insured person contribution rate) and group contribution rate (employer contribution rate) of health insurance, the union share rate of medical expenses, and the organization code of companies belonging to the insurance association. Are stored for each insurance association. The health insurance income calculation unit 76 uses the insurance association as a search key, and from the insurance association database 51, the insured burden ratio of the insurance association, the group burden ratio, the union burden ratio of the medical expenses, and the group code of the company belonging to the insurance association Is read.

  FIG. 9 shows an example of the data format of the member database 52. The member database 52 is an insured who identifies an insured person and group information including an employment plan that shows the insurance association to which the company belongs, the retirement age of the company, and individual attributes of the employer to be hired in the future, and the insured person The member information including the number, the insured's examination data and the dependent's personal attributes, and the personal information including the expected future salary for each insured are stored in association with the company organization code. . The future salary of the insured is set so that the amount is determined by specifying a future point in time. For example, the salary record of last year or this year and the expected rate of future salary increase are stored. The future salary may have an upper limit or a lower limit.

  FIG. 10 shows an example of a member information file indicating the member information in FIG. The union member information file includes personal attributes including age, gender, and occupation related to the insured, notification information indicating the already developed chronic disease, type and degree of lifestyle, and examination data. The examination data includes past data. By comparing the examination data with past data, it is possible to determine the direction of change (improvement direction or deterioration direction) of the health status of the insured person and the magnitude of the change. The examination data reflection unit 66 may correct the incidence of chronic disease further according to the direction of change (improvement direction or deterioration direction) of the health condition and the magnitude of the change. For example, when the health condition is in a worsening direction, the onset rate is corrected to be larger as the magnitude of change is larger. Alternatively, when the health condition is improving, the onset rate is corrected to be smaller as the magnitude of change is larger. The member information file further records personal attributes and notification information regarding the insured dependent.

  When the receipt data of the insured person and the dependents include medical expenses related to the treatment of the chronic disease, the receipt counting unit 80 selects the corresponding insured person or dependent in the member information file of the member database 52. In the column of the person's notification information, it may be recorded that the person has already developed the chronic disease.

  FIG. 11 is a flowchart illustrating a procedure in which the medical cost prediction server 50 predicts a future medical cost for a member of a company. This flow starts in response to the medical cost prediction server 50 receiving a command for predicting a future medical cost for each company together with an input for designating a future time point. First, the classification unit 62 selects, from the member database 52, insured persons whose future age does not exceed the retirement age of the company, and their dependents, from the member database 52 for each type of chronic disease. A person is extracted (S10).

  Next, the classification unit 62, the attribute-specific incidence rate reading unit 64, the screening data reflection unit 66, the lifestyle reflection unit 68, and the average incidence rate calculation unit 70 represent the insured person and the dependents extracted in step 10. Categorize as current and unaffected people for the chronic disease and calculate the future average incidence of the chronic disease in the unaffected people and newly hired employees by the future (S20). Details of step 20 will be described later with reference to FIG.

  Next, the chronic disease medical cost calculation unit 72 reads the standard medical cost for the chronic disease from the chronic disease medical cost database 60, and relates to the standard medical cost, the average incidence calculated in step 20, and the company. Multiply the total number of undeveloped persons and employers by calculating the future medical expenses for non-onset persons and employers of the company with respect to the chronic disease. By adding the medical cost multiplied by the number of pre-existing persons for the company, the future medical cost for the company regarding the chronic disease is calculated (S30).

  At this time, the chronic disease medical cost calculation unit 72 reads the hospitalization medical cost annual amount and the outpatient medical cost annual amount related to the chronic disease from the chronic disease medical cost database 60. Then, a fixed percentage of the number of unaffected persons and employers is multiplied by the in-patient medical expenses, and the remaining persons are multiplied by the out-patient medical expenses. The said ratio is determined according to the age structure of the employee in the said company, for example. In other words, the higher the average age, the higher the rate of multiplying the annual amount of hospital medical expenses.

  The medical cost prediction server 50 repeats the steps 20 and 30 until it executes all types of chronic diseases stored in the chronic disease medical cost database 60 (S40), and calculates all types of chronic diseases. By calculating the results, the future chronic disease medical expenses for the company are calculated (S50).

  Next, the non-chronic disease medical cost calculation unit 84 determines the non-chronic disease medical cost for members who belong to the company at a future time. That is, for all insured persons who are determined not to exceed the retirement age in step 10 and their dependents, and all hired persons employed up to a future time point, non-chronic disease medical care using personal attributes as search keys The medical cost correlation data is read from the cost database 82, and the non-chronic disease medical costs corresponding to the age at the future time of each of the insured, the dependent, and the employer are read (S60).

  The non-chronic disease medical cost calculation unit 84 repeats the reading operation of step 60 until it is executed for all members belonging to the company at a future time (S70), and when all the readings are completed (S70: Yes), The non-chronic disease medical cost calculation unit 84 calculates the future non-chronic disease medical cost for the company by counting the non-chronic disease medical cost for the members of the company (S80).

  Finally, the group total medical cost output unit 73 adds the calculation results of the chronic disease medical cost calculation unit 72 and the non-chronic disease medical cost calculation unit 84 for the company, so that the members of the company at a future time The total medical cost is calculated and output (S90). The company terminal 10 and the insurance association terminal 20 receive the predicted value of the total medical cost for the members of the company at a future time point from the group total medical cost output unit 73 and display it. This flow is completed. According to the above operation, the medical cost prediction system 100 can predict the future medical cost for each company with high accuracy based on the health status of the insured.

  FIG. 12 shows a detailed procedure for calculating an average incidence rate in a specific future of the unaffected person and the employer in Step 20 of FIG. First, the classification unit 62 indicates in the notification information that it has developed according to the type of chronic disease among the insured who has not exceeded the retirement age at the future time point and the dependents extracted in step 10. Insured persons and dependents who are not recorded are extracted as unaffected persons (S200). Next, the attribute-specific onset rate reading unit 64 sequentially reads out the onset rate correlation data from the onset rate correlation database 54 using the individual attributes relating to each of the unaffected individuals as search keys, and the onset of chronic diseases corresponding to future ages. The rate is read as the future incidence rate of the unaffected person (S202).

  Next, the examination data reflection unit 66 reads the examination data coefficient from the correction database 56 using the examination data of the insured person among the unaffected persons as a search key, and the attribute-specific incidence rate reading part 64 reads the examination data coefficient among the unaffected persons. The onset rate read for the insured is corrected with the screening data coefficient (S204). As a result, the current examination result of the insured is reflected in the incidence of the chronic disease according to the individual attribute. In step 204, the examination data reflection unit 66 further reads out the variation threshold value and the coefficient correction amount from the correction database 56 using the examination item as a search key, and the examination data exceeding the reference value is larger than the variation threshold value. When the condition has deteriorated, the examination data coefficient is greatly corrected by the coefficient correction amount. On the contrary, when the examination data exceeding the reference value is greatly improved from the change amount threshold value, the examination data coefficient is corrected to be smaller by the coefficient correction amount. Therefore, the screening data reflection unit 66 can accurately correct the incidence of chronic diseases by individual attribute based on the magnitude of changes in the screening data of the insured.

  Next, the lifestyle reflecting unit 68 reads out the lifestyle coefficient from the lifestyle database 58 using the lifestyle of the insured person among the unaffected persons as a search key, and calculates the incidence rate corrected by the examination data reflecting unit 66. The lifestyle coefficient is corrected (S206). Thereby, the change degree of the disease risk by a lifestyle is reflected in the future incidence rate of the insured person among the unaffected persons. The attribute-specific onset rate reading unit 64, the examination data reflecting unit 66, and the lifestyle reflecting unit 68 repeat the operations of steps 202, 204, and 206 for all unaffected individuals belonging to the company (S208). . Here, the lifestyle reflecting unit 68 may associate the incidence rate of the chronic disease corrected by the lifestyle coefficient with the insured number, and transmit it to the company terminal 10 or the individual member terminal 12 for each type of disease. . It is desirable to transmit to the individual member terminal 12 together with the current incidence of the disease related to the insured.

  When it is determined in step 208 that steps 202, 204, and 206 have been executed for all unaffected individuals, the attribute-specific onset rate reading unit 64 selects the individual of the employer to be employed by the designated future time point. The attribute is obtained based on the future time point and the recruitment plan, and each of the obtained individual attributes is used as a search key to sequentially read the incidence rate correlation data from the incidence rate correlation database 54, and corresponds to the age of the employer at the future time point. The incidence rate to be read is read as the future incidence rate of the employer (S212).

  The attribute-specific onset rate reading unit 64 repeats the operation of step 212 for all employers related to the company (S214). When the operation of step 212 is completed for all the employers (S214: Yes), the average incidence calculation unit 70 develops the dependents and the employers among the unaffected individuals read by the attribute-specific onset rate reading unit 64. By calculating the average value of the rate and the incidence rate of the insured out of the unaffected persons corrected by the lifestyle reflecting unit 68, the unaffected members of the unaffiliated members of the company The future average incidence rate in the onset person and the employer is calculated for each type of chronic disease (S216). Step 20 is now complete. According to the operation of step 20, the future incidence of chronic disease for each non-developed person and employer at a future time point is accurately predicted based on at least one of personal attributes, medical examination data, and lifestyle habits. can do.

  FIG. 13 and FIG. 14 respectively show the procedure for the medical cost prediction server 50 to predict the future balance of the health insurance association and the balance of the health insurance association. Health insurance union expenditure consists of union contributions for insurance benefits or medical expenses, contributions, and other expenses. Contributions include geriatric health contributions and retiree benefit contributions. On the other hand, the health insurance association's income includes insurance premiums collected from insured persons and companies, withdrawal of reserves, and other income. Among these, in the procedure shown in FIG. 13, insurance premium income is calculated in step 304, and medical expense expenditure is calculated in step 308.

  First, as an example, when the medical expenses prediction server 50 accepts a request to execute balance prediction for the union A, the health insurance revenue calculation unit 76 uses the union A as a search key from the insurance union database 51 and receives the insurance premium. The burden rate, the group burden rate, and the affiliated organization code are read out. Then, all expected salaries of insured persons who are expected to belong to the company at a future time are read from the member database 52 for the affiliated organization code. The total of the read expected salary is multiplied by the insured person's burden rate and the group's burden rate of union A, and totaled to obtain the insurance premium collection amount that union A will collect from the company in the future. Calculate (S300).

  The health insurance revenue calculation unit 76 repeats the operation of step 300 until all the organization codes associated with the association A are completed (S302). When the operation of step 300 is completed for all the group codes corresponding to the association A, the health insurance income calculation unit 76 calculates the sum of the insurance premium collection amount from each company as the insurance premium income of the association A in the future, By adding other income, the income excluding the reserve withdrawal is calculated (S304).

  On the other hand, the health insurance expenditure calculation unit 74 obtains the calculation result of the future total medical cost for the company belonging to the union A from the group total medical cost output unit 73, and further calculates the current union burden ratio of the union A. By reading out from the insurance association database 51 and multiplying the total medical expenses, the medical expenses expenditure of the association A at a future time is calculated. Then, the contribution of the insurance association is calculated by adding the contribution and other expenses (S308).

  Next, the balanced balance calculation unit 78 determines whether or not the future income calculated in step 304 is less than the expenditure calculated in step 308 (S310). If the income is greater than the expenditure, go to step 320. On the other hand, if it is determined that the income is less than the expenditure (S310: Yes), the shortage amount is compared with the amount of reserves that can be withdrawn in the future according to a predetermined plan. It is determined whether or not the amount is larger than the amount of the reserve, that is, whether or not the deficient amount can be applied by the withdrawal of the reserve (S312). If it is determined in step 312 that the shortage amount can be applied by reversing the reserve (S312: Yes), the process proceeds to step 316.

  On the other hand, if it is determined that the shortage amount is not appropriate due to the withdrawal of the reserve (S312: No), the health insurance income calculation unit 76 calculates the income obtained when the insurance premium rate is changed to a predetermined upper limit value. It is determined whether or not the income when the insurance premium rate is increased after the withdrawal of money is sufficient for the expenditure (S314). If it is determined that the shortage amount can be appropriated by reversing the reserve fund and increasing the insurance premium rate (S314: Yes), the process proceeds to step 316. On the other hand, if it is determined that the shortage cannot be applied due to the withdrawal of the reserve fund and the increase in the insurance premium rate (S314: No), a warning message is output to the effect that the health insurance association's finances will break down, and the process proceeds to step 320 (S318). ).

  In step 316, the insurance premium rate at which the balance is balanced below the statutory upper limit value, or the withdrawal amount when the balance is balanced by reversing the reserve by calculating the insurance premium rate as an upper limit (S316). In step 316, the balanced balance calculating unit 78 may calculate a combined burden ratio necessary for balancing the balance.

  The balanced balance calculation unit 78 transmits the insurance rate for balancing the balance, the amount of the reserve withdrawal, and the simulation result of the union share ratio to the insurance association terminal 20a and the company terminal 10a (S320). The insurance association terminal 20a and the company terminal 10a display the insurance rate, the amount of reserve withdrawal, and the simulation result of the association burden ratio received from the balanced balance calculation unit 78. This flow is completed. According to the above operation, the medical cost prediction system 100 can predict the future financial situation of the health insurance association based on the medical cost predicted for each group.

  As is apparent from the above description, according to the present embodiment, the medical cost prediction system 100 can predict future medical costs for each company or each insured based on the health status of the insured. . Furthermore, the future financial situation of the health insurance association can be predicted based on the predicted medical expenses.

  As mentioned above, although this invention was demonstrated using embodiment, the technical scope of this invention is not limited to the range as described in the said embodiment. It will be apparent to those skilled in the art that various modifications or improvements can be added to the above-described embodiment. It is apparent from the scope of the claims that the embodiments added with such changes or improvements can be included in the technical scope of the present invention.

It is a figure which shows an example of the system configuration | structure of the medical expenses prediction system. It is a figure which shows an example of a function structure of the medical expenses prediction server. An example of the data format of the incidence correlation database 54 is shown. An example of the data format of the correction database 56 is shown. An example of the data format of the lifestyle database 58 is shown. An example of the data format of the chronic disease medical expenses database 60 is shown. An example of the data format of the non-chronic disease medical expenses database 82 is shown. An example of the data format of the insurance association database 51 is shown. An example of the data format of the member database 52 is shown. An example of the data format of the member information file is shown. It is a flowchart which shows the procedure in which the medical expenses prediction server 50 estimates the future medical expenses concerning the member of a company. It is a flowchart which shows the detailed procedure of step 20 in FIG. It is a flowchart which shows the procedure in which the medical expenses prediction server 50 estimates the future balance of an insurance association. It is a figure which shows the income and expenditure summary of a health insurance association.

Explanation of symbols

10 company terminal, 12 individual member terminal, 20 insurance association terminal, 50 medical cost prediction server, 51 insurance association database, 52 member database, 54 incidence correlation database, 56 correction database, 58 lifestyle database, 60 chronic disease medical cost database 62 classification section, 64 attribute-specific incidence reading section, 66 screening data reflection section, 68 lifestyle habit reflection section, 70 average incidence calculation section, 72 chronic disease medical expenses calculation section, 73 group total medical expenses output section, 74 health insurance Expenditure calculation unit, 76 Health insurance income calculation unit, 78 Balance balance calculation unit, 80 Receipt calculation unit, 82 Non-chronic disease medical cost database, 84 Non-chronic disease medical cost calculation unit, 100 Medical cost prediction system, 300 Recording medium

Claims (9)

A medical cost prediction system comprising a group terminal and a medical cost prediction server connected via a network, and predicting a future medical cost of the group,
The medical cost prediction server
An incidence correlation database storing incidence correlation data showing correlation between age and incidence for multiple types of chronic diseases by individual attributes including at least gender;
A lifestyle coefficient indicating the degree to which the lifestyle including at least one of smoking, drinking, and exercise habits changes the incidence of the chronic disease is stored in association with the lifestyle type for each chronic disease type. Lifestyle database and
When the examination data consisting of a plurality of examination items indicating the health condition of the insured person deviates from a predetermined reference value, the examination data coefficient for correcting the incidence of the chronic disease related to the insured person, the examination item and A correction database stored in association with the type of chronic disease;
Chronic disease medical cost database storing standard medical costs related to the treatment of the chronic diseases in association with the types of the chronic diseases, and
A non-chronic disease medical cost database storing medical cost correlation data showing correlation with age of non-chronic disease medical costs that are medical costs due to illness or injury other than the chronic disease, ,
The group terminal is a personal attribute including at least gender and age, notification information indicating a chronic disease that has already developed, the examination data, the lifestyle, and the individual attribute of the dependent and the notification information Acceptance of information regarding multiple insured persons who belong to the organization, and the recruitment plan that shows the individual attributes of the employers that the organization intends to employ in the future, and organization information including the retirement age of the organization And receiving the personal information and the group information related to the plurality of insured persons to the medical cost prediction server,
The medical cost prediction server further includes:
A member database for receiving and storing the personal information and the group information on the plurality of insured persons from the group terminal;
When receiving a command to predict the medical expenses for the organization at a certain time in the future, the age at the future time is the retirement age of the organization from the member database for each type of chronic disease. The insured person and the dependent who do not exceed the above are extracted, and the insured person and the dependent who have already recorded the chronic disease are recorded in the notification information. A classifying unit that classifies the insured person and the dependent who are not recorded as an unaffected person,
Using each of the personal attributes stored in the member database for the unaffected person as a search key, the incidence correlation data is sequentially read from the incidence correlation database, and the onset of the chronic disease corresponding to the future age The personal attribute stored in the member database for the employer included in the recruitment plan up to the future time point, while reading the rate as the future incidence of the chronic disease for each of the undeveloped persons As the search keys, sequentially reading out the incidence correlation data from the incidence correlation database, and determining the incidence of the chronic disease corresponding to the future age of the employer as the future of the chronic disease related to the employer. An attribute-specific onset rate reading unit that reads as an onset rate,
The examination data coefficient is read from the correction database using the examination data of the insured person among the unaffected persons as a search key, and the attribute-specific incidence reading unit is the insured person among the unaffected persons. A screening data reflecting unit that corrects the onset rate read about the person with the screening data coefficient;
Using the lifestyle stored in the member database for the insured person among the unaffected persons as a search key, the lifestyle coefficient is read from the lifestyle database, and the examination data reflection unit has corrected the A lifestyle reflecting section that corrects the incidence by the lifestyle coefficient,
Of the unaffected persons corrected by the lifestyle reflecting unit, the incidence of the insured person and the dependents of the unaffected persons read by the attribute-specific onset rate reading unit and the adoption The average incidence rate of the chronic disease in the unaffected person and the employer of the group at the future time point is calculated by calculating the average of the incidence rate for the person and taking the average for the group. An average incidence calculation unit for each type,
By multiplying the average incidence by the number of people who have not developed the disease and the employer at the future time point, and the standard medical cost stored in the chronic disease medical cost database for the chronic disease, Calculate the future medical expenses for the non-developed person and the employer for the chronic disease with respect to the chronic disease, and further, the standard medical expenses stored in the chronic disease medical expenses database for the chronic disease, By adding the medical cost multiplied by the number of the pre-existing persons of the group stored in the member database, the future medical cost for the group with respect to the chronic disease is calculated, and the future medical cost is calculated. By calculating and totaling all chronic diseases stored in the chronic disease medical cost database, A chronic disease medical cost calculation unit that calculates the future medical expenses relating to the organization and,
Stored in the member database for all the insured persons and their dependents who do not exceed the retirement age classified by the classification unit, and each of the employers employed by the future time point. The medical cost correlation data is read from the non-chronic disease medical cost database using the personal attribute as a search key, the non-chronic disease medical cost corresponding to the future age is read, and the non-chronic disease medical cost is A non-chronic disease medical cost calculation unit for calculating the future non-chronic disease medical cost for the group by counting up all the insured persons, dependents, and the employers related to the group;
The total medical cost of the group that calculates and outputs the total medical cost for the group at the future time point by adding the calculation results of the chronic disease medical cost calculation unit and the non-chronic disease medical cost calculation unit for the group An output section;
The standard medical care for each chronic disease stored in the chronic disease medical cost database is calculated by collecting the receipt data indicating the medical cost for the treatment of the disease and calculating the average value of the medical cost for each chronic disease. A medical cost prediction system , comprising: a receipt totaling unit that updates costs with the average value that has been totalized . The member database is further received and stored as the personal information, the salary performance of the insured person belonging to the group last year or the current fiscal year and the expected rate of future salary increase,
The medical cost prediction server further includes:
An insurance union database storing the insurance premium rate and the union share of medical expenses for each insurance union in health insurance;
The total amount of the expected salary of the insured who belongs to the group in the future is calculated based on the salary record of the previous fiscal year or current year and the expected rate of future salary increase stored in the member database, and the insurance By multiplying the current insurance premium rate stored in the association database, the insurance association calculates the future insurance premium collection amount collected from the organization, and uses the insurance premium collection amount of the insurance association. A health insurance income calculation unit for calculating the income in the future;
Health insurance expenditure calculation for calculating the future expenditure of the insurance association using the amount obtained by multiplying the future total medical expenditure output by the group total medical expenditure output unit with the current union burden ratio of the insurance association And
An equilibrium balance calculation unit that calculates at least one of the insurance premium rate and the union burden ratio necessary for balancing the income and the expenditure of the insurance association in the future, and transmits the calculation result to the group terminal. And
The medical cost prediction system according to claim 1, wherein the group terminal displays the calculation result received from the balanced balance calculation unit.   When the income in the future is insufficient with respect to the expenditure, the balanced balance calculation unit can offset the shortage by reversing the reserve fund accumulated by the future according to a predetermined plan. In the case where the shortage amount cannot be offset by the withdrawal of the reserve, the premium income obtained when the premium rate is changed to a predetermined upper limit value is calculated in the health insurance revenue calculation unit A warning message to the effect that the health insurance association's finances will fail if the sum of the premium income and the accumulated funds after the change in the premium rate is insufficient for the expenditure. The medical cost prediction system according to claim 2. The member database further stores past medical examination data of the insured,
The screening data reflection unit determines an improvement amount of the screening data by comparing the current screening data of the insured person stored in the member database with the past screening data, and improves the screening data. The medical cost prediction system according to claim 1, wherein when the amount is larger than a predetermined threshold value for each examination item, the examination data coefficient is corrected to be small. The member database further stores past medical examination data of the insured,
The screening data reflection unit determines the deterioration amount of the screening data by comparing the current screening data of the insured person stored in the member database with the past screening data, and the deterioration of the screening data The medical cost prediction system according to claim 1, wherein when the amount is larger than a predetermined threshold value for each examination item, the examination data coefficient is corrected to be large. The chronic disease medical expenses database stores medical expenses at the time of hospitalization and medical expenses at the time of hospitalization as the standard medical expenses of the chronic diseases,
The chronic disease medical cost calculation unit reads the chronic medical cost at the time of hospitalization and the medical cost at the time of hospitalization from the chronic disease medical cost database, and is constant among the undeveloped person and the employer at the future time point. 2. The future medical cost for the organization with respect to the chronic disease is calculated by multiplying the proportion of the number by the medical cost at the time of admission and the remaining number of people by the medical cost at the time of hospital visit. The medical cost prediction system described. A medical cost prediction server that predicts the future medical costs of an organization,
An incidence correlation database storing incidence correlation data indicating correlation between age and incidence for multiple types of chronic diseases by individual attributes including at least sex;
A lifestyle coefficient indicating the degree to which the lifestyle including at least one of smoking, drinking, and exercise habits changes the incidence of the chronic disease is stored in association with the lifestyle type for each chronic disease type. Lifestyle database and
When the examination data consisting of a plurality of examination items indicating the health condition of the insured person is out of a predetermined reference value, the examination data coefficient for correcting the incidence of the chronic disease related to the insured person is the examination item. And a correction database stored in association with the type of chronic disease,
Chronic disease medical cost database storing standard medical costs related to the treatment of the chronic diseases in association with the types of the chronic diseases, and
Non-chronic disease medical cost database storing medical cost correlation data showing correlation with age of non-chronic disease medical costs that are medical costs due to illness or injury other than the chronic disease, and
From a group terminal connected via a network, personal attributes including at least gender and age, informed information indicating chronic disease that has already developed, screening data, life Organizations including customs, personal information including dependent personal attributes and notification information, recruitment plans that show the personal attributes of employers that the organization intends to employ in the future, and retirement age in the organization A member database for receiving information and storing the received personal information and group information;
In the case of receiving a command to predict the medical expenses for the organization at a certain time in the future, from the member database according to the type of chronic disease, among the insured person, the future time The insured person whose age does not exceed the retirement age of the group and its dependents are extracted, and the insured person who has already developed the chronic disease is recorded in the notification information and Classifying the dependent as an onset of the chronic disease, and classifying the insured who is not recorded as such and the dependent as an unaffected insured,
Using each of the personal attributes stored in the member database for the unaffected person as a search key, the incidence correlation data is sequentially read from the incidence correlation database, and the onset of the chronic disease corresponding to the future age The personal attribute stored in the member database for the employer included in the recruitment plan up to the future time point, while reading the rate as the future incidence of the chronic disease for each of the undeveloped persons As the search keys, sequentially reading out the incidence correlation data from the incidence correlation database, and determining the incidence of the chronic disease corresponding to the future age of the employer as the future of the chronic disease related to the employer. An attribute-specific onset rate reading unit that reads as an onset rate,
The examination data coefficient is read from the correction database using the examination data of the insured person among the unaffected persons as a search key, and the attribute-specific incidence rate reading unit reads the insured person among the unaffected persons. A screening data reflecting unit that corrects the onset rate read about the person himself / herself with the screening data coefficient;
Using the lifestyle stored in the member database for the insured person among the unaffected persons as a search key, the lifestyle coefficient is read from the lifestyle database, and the examination data reflection unit has corrected the A lifestyle reflecting section that corrects the incidence by the lifestyle coefficient,
The incidence of the insured person among the unaffected persons corrected by the lifestyle reflecting unit, and the dependent and the adoption of the unaffected persons read by the attribute-specific onset rate reading unit The average incidence of the chronic disease in the undeveloped person and the employer of the group at the future time point is calculated by taking the average for the group and taking the average for the group. An average onset rate calculation unit to calculate for each type,
By multiplying the average incidence by the number of people who have not developed the disease and the employer at the future time point, and the standard medical cost stored in the chronic disease medical cost database for the chronic disease, Calculate the future medical expenses for the non-developed person and the employer for the chronic disease with respect to the chronic disease, and further, the standard medical expenses stored in the chronic disease medical expenses database for the chronic disease, By adding the medical cost multiplied by the number of the pre-existing persons of the group stored in the member database, the future medical cost for the group with respect to the chronic disease is calculated, and the future medical cost is calculated. By calculating and totaling all chronic diseases stored in the chronic disease medical cost database, A chronic disease medical cost calculation unit that calculates the future medical expenses relating to the organization and,
Stored in the member database for all the insured persons and their dependents who do not exceed the retirement age classified by the classification unit, and each of the employers employed by the future time point. The medical cost correlation data is read from the non-chronic disease medical cost database using the personal attribute as a search key, the non-chronic disease medical cost corresponding to the future age is read, and the non-chronic disease medical cost is A non-chronic disease medical cost calculation unit for calculating the future non-chronic disease medical cost for the group by counting up all the insured persons, the dependents, and the employers related to the group;
The total medical cost of the group that calculates and outputs the total medical cost for the group at the future time point by adding the calculation results of the chronic disease medical cost calculation unit and the non-chronic disease medical cost calculation unit for the group An output section;
The standard medical care for each chronic disease stored in the chronic disease medical cost database is calculated by collecting the receipt data indicating the medical cost for the treatment of the disease and calculating the average value of the medical cost for each chronic disease. A medical expense prediction server , comprising: a receipt aggregation unit that updates expenses with the average value obtained by aggregation . A group terminal connected via a network and a medical cost prediction server, wherein the medical cost prediction server includes gender and job type onset rate correlation data indicating correlation between age and onset rate regarding a plurality of types of chronic diseases. An incidence correlation database stored at least for each individual attribute, and a lifestyle coefficient indicating the degree to which the lifestyle including at least one habit of smoking, drinking, and exercise changes the incidence of the chronic disease, the chronic When the lifestyle data stored in association with the lifestyle type according to the type of disease and the examination data consisting of a plurality of examination items indicating the health status of the insured person are out of a predetermined reference value In addition, a screening data coefficient for correcting the incidence of the chronic disease related to the insured person is stored in association with the test item and the type of the chronic disease. A correction database, a chronic medical cost database that stores standard medical expenses for treatment of the chronic disease in association with the type of the chronic disease, and medical expenses due to illness or injury other than the chronic disease By using a medical cost prediction system having a non-chronic disease medical cost database that stores medical cost correlation data indicating the correlation of non-chronic medical costs with age, for each individual attribute, the future medical cost of the organization A method for predicting medical expenses,
The group terminal is a personal attribute including at least gender and age, notification information indicating chronic disease that has already developed, the examination data, the lifestyle, and the individual attribute of the dependent and the notification information Acceptance of information regarding multiple insured persons who belong to the organization, and the recruitment plan that shows the individual attributes of the employers that the organization intends to employ in the future, and organization information including the retirement age of the organization Receiving the input, and transmitting the personal information about the plurality of insured persons and the group information to the medical cost prediction server;
In the medical cost prediction server,
A member database receiving and storing the personal information and the group information on the plurality of insured persons from the group terminal;
When the classification unit receives a command to predict the medical expenses for the organization at a certain time in the future, the age at the future time is determined from the member database according to the type of the chronic disease. The insured person who does not exceed the retirement age and the dependent person are extracted, and the insured person and the dependent person in which the fact that the chronic disease has already occurred is recorded in the notification information Classifying as an onset of the chronic disease, and classifying the insured and the dependent not recorded as an unaffected person,
The attribute-specific onset rate reading unit sequentially reads out the onset rate correlation data from the onset rate correlation database using each of the individual attributes stored in the member database for the unaffected person as search keys, and the future age The incidence rate of the chronic disease corresponding to the above is read as the future incidence rate of the chronic disease for each of the undeveloped persons, and the member database regarding the employer included in the recruitment plan up to the future time point Each of the personal attributes stored in the search key is used as a search key, and the incidence rate correlation data is sequentially read from the incidence rate correlation database, and the incidence rate of the chronic disease corresponding to the future age of the employer is adopted. Reading as the future incidence of the chronic disease for a person,
The examination data reflection unit reads the examination data coefficient from the correction database using the examination data stored in the member database for the insured person among the unaffected persons as a search key, and the onset by attribute Correcting the onset rate read by the rate reading unit for the insured person among the unaffected individuals with the screening data coefficient; and
The lifestyle reflecting unit reads the lifestyle coefficient from the lifestyle database using the lifestyle of the insured person among the unaffected persons as a search key, and the incidence rate corrected by the screening data reflecting unit Correcting with the lifestyle coefficient,
The average incidence rate calculation unit is the incidence rate related to the insured person among the unaffected individuals corrected by the lifestyle reflecting unit, and the outbreak rate read by the attribute-specific incidence rate reading unit The average of the chronic illness in the unaffected person and the employer of the group at the future point in time by counting and averaging the incidence rate for the dependent and the employer for the group. Calculating the incidence for each type of chronic disease;
The chronic disease medical cost calculation unit, the average incidence rate, the total number of the unaffected persons and the employer at the future time point, and the standard stored in the chronic disease medical cost database for the chronic disease Multiplying by the medical cost, the future medical cost for the non-developed person and the employer of the group with respect to the chronic disease is calculated, and further, the chronic disease is stored in the chronic disease medical cost database. Calculating the future medical cost for the group with respect to the chronic disease by adding the medical cost obtained by multiplying the standard medical cost by the number of the onset patients of the group stored in the member database. The future medical expenses are calculated and totaled for all chronic diseases stored in the chronic disease medical expenses database. , And calculating the future medical expenses relating to the organization with respect to the all chronic disease,
The non-chronic disease medical cost calculation unit is classified by the classification unit, each of the insured person and his dependents who do not exceed the retirement age, and each of the employers employed by the future time point Read the medical cost correlation data from the non-chronic disease medical cost database using the personal attribute stored in the member database as a search key, and read the non-chronic disease medical cost corresponding to the future age, respectively. Calculating the future non-chronic disease medical expenses for the group by counting the non-chronic disease medical expenses for all the insured persons, the dependents, and the employers related to the group. Steps,
The group total medical cost output unit calculates the total medical cost for the group at the future time point by adding the calculation results of the chronic disease medical cost calculation unit and the non-chronic disease medical cost calculation unit for the group. And output step,
The standard medical care for each chronic disease stored in the chronic disease medical cost database is calculated by collecting the receipt data indicating the medical cost for the treatment of the disease and calculating the average value of the medical cost for each chronic disease. A medical cost prediction method , comprising: updating a cost with the average value . The medical expenses prediction server includes a group terminal connected via a network and a medical expenses prediction server, and the medical expenses prediction server includes at least gender, onset rate correlation data indicating a correlation between age and onset rate regarding a plurality of types of chronic diseases. An incidence correlation database stored for each individual attribute, and a lifestyle coefficient indicating the degree to which the lifestyle including at least one of smoking, drinking, and exercise habits changes the incidence of the chronic disease, By type, when the lifestyle data stored in association with the type of lifestyle and the examination data consisting of a plurality of examination items indicating the health status of the insured person are out of a predetermined standard, Correction data for storing a screening data coefficient for correcting the incidence of the chronic disease related to the insured in association with the test item and the type of the chronic disease A chronic disease medical cost database that stores the base and standard medical costs for treatment of the chronic disease in association with the types of the chronic diseases, and non-chronic that is medical costs due to illness or injury other than the chronic diseases A program for predicting the future medical expenses of a group in a medical expenses prediction system having a non-chronic disease medical expenses database storing medical expenses correlation data indicating correlation with age of the medical expenses of diseases. Because
Personal group including at least gender and age, notification information indicating chronic disease that has already developed, the examination data, the lifestyle, and the input of personal information including the personal attribute of the dependent and the notification information Accepting the input of group information including the retirement age in the organization and the recruitment plan showing the individual attributes of the employer scheduled to be employed in the future by the organization and the organization's retirement age A function for causing the medical expenses prediction server to transmit the personal information and the group information related to a plurality of insured persons to the group terminal,
In the medical cost prediction server,
A member information management function for receiving and storing the personal information and the group information related to the plurality of insured persons from the group terminal;
When receiving a command to predict the medical expenses for the organization at a certain time in the future, the age at the future time is the retirement age of the organization from the member database for each type of chronic disease. The insured person and his dependents who do not exceed the above are extracted, and the insured person and the dependents whose chronicity is already developed are recorded in the notification information. Classifying as an onset person, a classification function to classify the insured person and the dependent who are not recorded as an unaffected person, and
Using each of the personal attributes stored in the member database for the unaffected person as a search key, the incidence correlation data is sequentially read from the incidence correlation database, and the onset of the chronic disease corresponding to the future age The personal attribute stored in the member database for the employer included in the recruitment plan up to the future time point, while reading the rate as the future incidence of the chronic disease for each of the undeveloped persons As the search keys, sequentially reading out the incidence correlation data from the incidence correlation database, and determining the incidence of the chronic disease corresponding to the future age of the employer as the future of the chronic disease related to the employer. An attribute-specific onset rate reading function to read as an onset rate,
The examination data coefficient is read from the correction database using the examination data stored in the member database for the insured person among the unaffected persons as a search key, and the attribute-specific incidence rate reading function is not used. The screening data reflecting function for correcting the incidence rate read about the insured person among the onset persons with the screening data coefficient,
Using the lifestyle of the insured person among the unaffected persons as a search key, the lifestyle coefficient is read from the lifestyle database, and the incidence rate corrected by the screening data reflection function is the lifestyle coefficient. A lifestyle reflection function to be corrected,
The incidence of the insured person among the unaffected persons corrected by the lifestyle reflecting function, and the dependent and the employer of the unaffected persons read by the attribute-specific incidence reading function The average incidence rate of the chronic disease in the undeveloped person and the employer of the group at the future time point is calculated by calculating the average of the incidence rate for the organization and taking the average. An average incidence calculation function to be calculated every time,
By multiplying the average incidence by the number of people who have not developed the disease and the employer at the future time point, and the standard medical cost stored in the chronic disease medical cost database for the chronic disease, Calculate the future medical expenses for the non-developed person and the employer for the chronic disease with respect to the chronic disease, and further, the standard medical expenses stored in the chronic disease medical expenses database for the chronic disease, By adding the medical cost multiplied by the number of the pre-existing persons of the group stored in the member database, the future medical cost for the group with respect to the chronic disease is calculated, and the future medical cost is calculated. By calculating and totaling all chronic diseases stored in the chronic disease medical cost database, A chronic disease medical cost calculation function for calculating the future medical expenses relating to the organization and,
Stored in the member database for all the insured persons and their dependents who do not exceed the retirement age classified by the classification function, and each of the employers employed by the future time point. The medical cost correlation data is read from the non-chronic disease medical cost database using the personal attribute as a search key, the non-chronic disease medical cost corresponding to the future age is read, and the non-chronic disease medical cost is A non-chronic disease medical cost calculation function for calculating the future non-chronic disease medical cost for the group by counting up all the insured persons, the dependents, and the employers related to the group;
Calculate the total medical cost for the organization at the future point in time by adding the calculation results of the chronic disease medical cost calculation function and non-chronic disease medical cost calculation function for the group, and output the total medical cost for the group Output function,
The standard medical care for each chronic disease stored in the chronic disease medical cost database is calculated by collecting the receipt data indicating the medical cost for the treatment of the disease and calculating the average value of the medical cost for each chronic disease. A program for realizing a receipt totaling function for updating costs with the average value .

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