JP2021023024A - Power storage control device - Google Patents

Abstract

To provide energy management preventing a user from receiving economic disadvantage caused by an error between a predicted value and an actual value.SOLUTION: A control device is provided for controlling a power storage device in a system including a photovoltaic power generation device, the power storage device for storing power from the photovoltaic power generation device and a commercial power system, and one or more pieces of equipment that operate using power from the photovoltaic power generation device, the commercial power system, and the power storage device. The control device comprises: a predicted value acquisition unit acquiring a predicted surplus power generation amount from a predicted power generation amount being a predicted value of a power generation amount for each predetermined time of the photovoltaic power generation device, and a predicted value of total power consumption for each predetermined time for each of the equipment; and a storage battery control unit controlling power storage to the power storage device. The control unit determines whether or not to suppress an amount of power storage from the commercial power system to the power storage device performed in a midnight power time zone on the basis of the predicted surplus power generation amount and, when an error between a predicted value and an actual value exceeds a predetermined reference on the basis of an actual value of a past power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation device and an actual value of a past total power consumption of the equipment, performs control so that the amount of power storage is not suppressed.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 2

Description

The present invention relates to a power storage control device that controls power storage in the power storage device in a system including a photovoltaic power generation device, a power storage device, and one or more power consumption devices.

When the current FIT (Feed-in Tariff) system, which stipulates the purchase price of energy by law, is completed, it is expected that the purchase price of private power generation by renewable energy such as solar power generation will fall. Therefore, it is required to supply and supply privately-generated electricity without selling it. However, power generation using renewable energy such as solar power generation has a characteristic that the amount of power generation tends to fluctuate due to the influence of the natural environment.

In order to deal with such a situation, it is expected that the number of households and businesses that have a power storage device as well as a private power generation device will increase.
It is important for each household and each business operator not only to properly manage the consumption due to the power load, but also to manage the self-generated power wisely to realize economical energy operation.

In connection with this, the following technologies have been proposed for devices that control each device by generating an operation schedule for each device based on the predicted power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation device and the predicted load amount of each device. (See, for example, Patent Document 1).
That is, when the operation schedule of the device is generated, if the operation time of the specific device is set in the time zone when the predicted power generation amount is lower than the predicted load amount, the predicted power generation amount is the predicted load of the operation time of the device. Change to a time zone that exceeds the amount and reduce surplus electricity from solar power generation. Then, the amount of late-night power to be charged is calculated from the predicted power load and the amount of remaining power in the power storage device, and the amount of charge in the power storage device is controlled. In this way, if there is a time zone in which the surplus power generated by the photovoltaic power generation device is large, the surplus power is consumed by the device as much as possible so that the power storage device is not fully charged by charging with the surplus power.

Japanese Unexamined Patent Publication No. 2011-92002

In order to realize economical energy operation, it is necessary to predict the amount of power generated by photovoltaic power generation equipment and the amount of power consumed by equipment.
However, it is inevitable that an error will occur between the predicted value and the actual value depending on the natural environment and the usage status of the equipment.
However, as a result of performing more precise charge / discharge control on the power storage device based on the prediction of the amount of power generation and the amount of power consumption, an economic loss due to a prediction error is overwhelming.
Therefore, it would be convenient if it were possible to analyze the user's tendency based on past achievements, determine how precise energy management is appropriate, and prevent negative economic effects.
The present invention has been made in consideration of the above circumstances, and provides energy management in consideration of not causing an economic disadvantage to the user due to an error between a predicted value and an actual value. To do.

The present invention operates with a power generation device that generates power using sunlight, a power storage device that stores power from the power generation device and an external commercial power system, and power from the power generation device, the commercial power system, and the power storage device. A device that controls electricity storage in the power storage device in a system including one or more devices, and is a predicted power generation amount which is a predicted value of the power generation amount of the power generation device for each predetermined time and the power consumption of the device for each predetermined time. It includes a predicted value acquisition unit that acquires the predicted surplus power generation amount from the predicted power consumption amount that is the predicted value of the amount, and a control unit that controls the storage of electricity in the power storage device, and the control unit is outside the midnight power time zone. It is determined whether or not to suppress the amount of electricity stored in the power storage device from the commercial power system during the midnight power hours in order to reduce the amount of power purchased based on the predicted surplus power generation amount, and the power generation device. Based on the actual value of the past power generation amount of the above equipment and the actual value of the past power consumption amount of the above equipment, it is possible to judge the magnitude of the possibility that an economic disadvantage will occur due to the error between the predicted value and the actual value. Provided is a power storage control device that controls so as not to suppress the amount of power stored when the property exceeds a predetermined standard.

From a different point of view, the present invention relates to a power generation device that generates power by using sunlight, a power storage device that stores power from the power generation device and an external commercial power system, and the power generation device, the commercial power system, and the power storage device. It is a program executed by the control unit in order to control the storage of electricity in the power storage device in a power control system including one or more devices operating with the power of the above, and is a predicted value of the amount of power generation of the power generation device at predetermined time intervals. The process of acquiring the predicted surplus power generation amount from the predicted power generation amount, which is the predicted value of the predicted power generation amount and the power consumption amount of the device for each predetermined time, and the midnight power generation in order to reduce the power purchase amount outside the midnight power generation time zone. The process of determining whether or not to suppress the amount of electricity stored in the electricity storage device from the commercial power system during the time period based on the predicted surplus power generation amount, the actual value of the past power generation amount of the power generation device, and A process for determining the degree of possibility that an economic disadvantage will occur due to an error between the predicted value and the actual value based on the actual value of the past power consumption of the device, and a standard in which the possibility is predetermined. When the amount exceeds the above, a storage control program for executing a process of controlling the storage amount so as not to be suppressed is provided.

In the power storage control device according to the present invention, the control unit is economically inconvenient due to an error between the predicted value and the actual value based on the actual value of the past power generation amount of the power generation device and the actual value of the past power consumption amount of the device. The magnitude of the possibility of generating profit is judged, and if the possibility exceeds a predetermined standard, the amount of electricity stored is controlled so as not to be suppressed. Therefore, the user is caused by an error between the predicted value and the actual value. It is possible to realize energy management that is considered so as not to cause financial disadvantages.
The same effect can be said for the above-mentioned electricity storage business program.

It is a block diagram which shows the structural example of the electric power control system which concerns on Embodiment 1. FIG. It is a block diagram which shows the detail of the controller shown in FIG. It is explanatory drawing which extracts and shows the element about the flow of electric power in the electric power control system of FIG. It is explanatory drawing which shows the flow of electric power in the midnight electric power time zone in the mode which becomes the standard of the economic effect of the electric power control system of FIG. It is explanatory drawing which shows the flow of electric power in the state which there is surplus electric power in daytime in the mode which becomes the standard of the economic effect of the electric power control system of FIG. It is explanatory drawing which shows the flow of electric power in the mode which becomes the standard of the economic effect of the electric power control system of FIG. 1 in the state which there is no surplus electric power in daytime. It is explanatory drawing which shows the flow of electric power in the midnight electric power time zone in the mode which suppresses the electric storage amount of the electric power control system of FIG. It is explanatory drawing which shows the flow of electric power in the state which there is surplus electric power in the daytime in the mode which suppresses the electricity storage amount of the electric power control system of FIG. It is explanatory drawing which shows the flow of electric power in the state which suppresses the amount of electric storage of the electric power control system of FIG. 1 in the state which there is no surplus electric power in daytime. In the first embodiment, it is a graph which shows the example of the data referred to as the basis for determining the amount of electricity stored and whether or not the boiling is suppressed in the midnight electric time zone. FIG. 5 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of switching whether or not the controllability determination unit can suppress the amount of electricity stored in the midnight power time zone in the first embodiment.

Hereinafter, the present invention will be described in more detail with reference to the drawings. It should be noted that the following description is exemplary in all respects and should not be construed as limiting the invention.
(Embodiment 1)
<< Configuration example of power control system >>
First, as an example of the system configuration in this embodiment, a home power control system connected to a commercial power system and including a solar cell module, a storage battery, and a hot water storage type water heater will be described. The target is not limited to homes, but may be equipment such as business establishments and factories.

FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a configuration example of the power control system 100 according to the first embodiment. The electric power control system 100 is a power generation system having a solar cell module 91 and a storage battery 94, and is a distributed power source that supplies electric power by a power generation method that converts sunlight into electric power. The power control system 100 is connected to the commercial power system 96 via a transmission line P and a power receiving point R. A power consuming device 92 is also connected to the transmission line P. The power consuming device 92 is, for example, an electric appliance in a home, and consumes the power supplied to the transmission line P in the power control system 100. As shown in FIG. 2, which will be described later, the power consumption device 92 may or may not include a hot water storage type water heater.
As shown in FIG. 1, it includes a solar cell module 91, a storage battery 94, a power conditioner 93, and a controller 10.

The solar cell module 91 is a power generation device including a plurality of solar cell cells, receives sunlight to generate electricity, and outputs direct current power.
The storage battery 94 is a power storage device including a secondary battery capable of repeatedly storing and discharging. The storage battery 94 stores electricity using the DC power supplied from the power conditioner 93, and discharges the DC power corresponding to the stored power to provide a hot water storage type water heater via the bidirectional inverter 32. Power is supplied to the power consuming device 92 including the power consumption device 92, and power is supplied (sold) to the external commercial power system 96. The storage battery 94 may include not only a fixedly installed storage battery but also an electric vehicle (EV battery).

The power conditioner 93 is connected to the solar cell module 91 and the storage battery 94, and is also connected to the commercial power system 96 via the transmission line P to control the storage and discharge of the storage battery 94.
The power conditioner 93 converts the direct current power supplied from the solar cell module 91 and the storage battery 94 into alternating current. Further, the alternating current power supplied from the commercial power system 96 is converted into direct current and provided to the storage battery 94. Further, the power conditioner 93 controls the sale of power from the solar cell module 91 and the storage battery 94 to the commercial power system 96.

The watt hour meter 37 detects the power value transmitted between the power control system 100 and the commercial power system 96 via the transmission line P and the power receiving point R. Detects the power purchased or sold to the commercial power system 96. The detection result of the watt hour meter 37 is output to the IC 39.
The watt-hour meter 37 includes a watt-hour meter for sale and a watt-hour meter for purchase 372.
When power is transmitted from the power control system 100 to the commercial power system 96 at the power receiving point R, the power sales meter 371 detects the power value to be sold as the power sales amount and integrates the power sales amount. Then, the watt hour meter 371 outputs these results to the IC 39.

When power is transmitted from the commercial power system 96 to the power control system 100 at the power receiving point R, the power purchase meter 372 detects the power value to be purchased as the power purchase amount and integrates the power purchase amount. Then, the watt-hour meter 372 outputs these results to the IC 39.
The voltmeter 38 is a voltage detecting means for detecting the voltage at the output terminal 93a of the power conditioner 93. The detection result of the voltmeter 38 is output to the IC 39. The voltage detected by the voltmeter 38 indicates the voltage of the electric power transmitted on the transmission line P.

The IC 39 controls each component of the power conditioner 93 by using the information and the program stored in the memory 36. Further, the IC 39 performs storage control for storing the storage battery 94 with the generated power generated by the solar cell module 91.
The IC 39 includes a conversion control unit 392 as a functional component.
The conversion control unit 392 controls the bidirectional inverter 32 based on the detection results of the watt-hour meter 37 and the voltmeter 38, and particularly controls the power conversion direction and the power conversion amount thereof.

The controller 10 controls the storage battery 94 and the bidirectional DC / DC converter 34, accepts user input, and the like. The controller 10 has an input unit 51, a controller communication unit 52, a controller memory 53, and a controller IC 54.
The input unit 51 receives an input by the user and outputs an input signal corresponding to the input to the controller IC 54.

The controller communication unit 52 is a communication interface that communicates wirelessly or by wire with the communication unit 35 of the power conditioner 93. The controller communication unit 52 receives the detection result of the watt hour meter 37 and the information of the solar cell module 91 and the storage battery 94 from the communication unit 35. That is, the power purchased from the commercial power system 96 detected by the power system 37, the power sold to the commercial power system 96, the actual value of the power generated by the solar cell module 91, and the actual value of the stored power / discharged power of the storage battery 94. Receives time series data of.
The controller memory 53 is a non-volatile storage medium that non-temporarily holds the stored information even when power is not supplied. The controller memory 53 stores control information, programs, and the like used in each functional element (particularly the controller IC 54) of the controller 10. In addition, the actual value of the purchased power, the sold power, the generated power, and the stored power / discharged power received via the controller communication unit 52 is stored as a history.

The controller IC 54 is a control unit that controls each component of the controller 10 by using information, a program, and the like stored in the controller memory 53. The controller IC 54 has a storage amount monitoring unit 541 and an energy management unit 542 as functional components.
The storage amount monitoring unit 541 monitors the storage amount of the storage battery 94 and determines whether or not the storage battery 94 has reached the fully charged storage capacity.
The energy management unit 542 determines the power conversion direction and power conversion operation of the bidirectional DC / DC converter 34 based on the detection result of the watt hour meter 37 and the monitoring result of the electricity storage amount monitoring unit 541. Control.

When the monitoring result of the storage amount monitoring unit 541 indicates that the storage amount of the storage battery 94 reaches the fully charged state, further charging the storage battery 94 results in overcharging. In this case, the energy management unit 542 controls the bidirectional DC / DC converter 34 so as not to convert the electric power in the storage direction A. For example, the power conversion direction of the bidirectional DC / DC converter 34 is set to the discharge direction B, or the power conversion amount of the bidirectional DC / DC converter 34 is set to 0 and the power conversion of the bidirectional DC / DC converter 34 is performed. It stops the operation. In this way, the energy management unit 542 prevents overcharging of the storage battery 94 and suppresses its damage, deterioration of storage capacity, and reduction of life.

FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing details of the controller 10 shown in FIG.
As shown in FIG. 2, the controller 10 includes a power generation amount prediction unit 110, a power consumption amount prediction unit 120, a residual amount acquisition unit 150, and a prediction value acquisition unit 130. Further, it includes an energy management unit 542, a storage battery control unit 170, a water heater control unit 180, a power generation / consumption history 101, and a storage (boiling) schedule 103.
The power generation history of the solar cell module 91 is recorded at predetermined time intervals (for example, every 30 minutes or 1 hour) via a smart meter, a distribution board 81 with a measurement function (see FIG. 1), or using a separate sensor. It is stored in the power generation / consumption history 101.
The same applies to the power consumption history of the power consuming device 92 (including the history of the amount of power used by the hot water storage type water heater 95 for boiling) and the history of the amount of hot water stored in the hot water storage type water heater 95.
The controller 10 can read and analyze the power generation / consumption history 101.
The power generation / consumption history 101 is included in the controller memory 53 shown in FIG.

The power consuming device 92 is a device that consumes (alternating current) power. Specific examples include home appliances such as air conditioners, microwave ovens, televisions, refrigerators, and washing machines. The hot water storage type water heater 95 is one of the power consuming devices 92, but since it has a function of converting electric power energy into heat energy and storing energy, in FIG. 2, other electric power that only consumes electric power is used. It is shown separately from the consumer device 92. The power consuming device 92 is connected to the distribution board 81 and consumes the power supplied from the distribution board 81.

The controller 10 is connected to at least a part of the power consuming devices 92 by a home network using a communication line (not shown), and can comprehensively control those devices. In FIG. 2, at least the hot water storage type water heater 95, which is one of the power consuming devices 92, can be controlled. This may be referred to as a home energy management system (HEMS). The protocol used by HEMS for communication between devices (devices) is, for example, Echonet Lite.
The information collection server 97 can communicate with the controller 10 via the web network 98 to read and analyze the power generation / consumption history 101. Further, the information collection server 97 stores the zip code of the place where the power control system 100 is installed, and acquires the weather conditions from the weather information company based on the information of the zip code.

The hot water storage type water heater 95 is connected to the distribution board 81. The hot water storage type water heater 95 uses the electric power supplied through the distribution board 81 to boil. As a general rule, boiling is done during midnight electricity hours when electricity is cheap.
The midnight power time zone is typically from 23:00 to 7:00 am, but it varies depending on the power company or the contract details (price plan) between the power company and the power user. The midnight power time zone may be a time zone in which electricity is inexpensive.

As described above, the external commercial power system 96 supplies power to the power control system (power purchase from the power control system side) and purchases power from the power control system (power) in response to the control of the power conditioner 93. Selling power as seen from the control system side).
The meteorological information company provides the controller 10 with the meteorological information necessary for forecasting the amount of power generation on the next day via the web network 98. In addition, weather information on other days may be provided if necessary.

The power generation / consumption history 101 shown in FIG. 2 is history data of power generation and consumption of a household in which a power control system is installed.
[Power generation amount prediction unit 110]
The power generation amount prediction unit 110 acquires weather information via the web network 98. Further, the power generation amount prediction unit 110 acquires the power generation history, that is, the actual value of the power generation amount from the power generation / consumption history 101. The power generation amount prediction unit 110 predicts the power generation amount for the next day based on the acquired weather information and the power generation history. The beginning and end of the day in this specification do not always start at midnight. For example, the amount of power generation in the period from 23:00, which is the time when the midnight power time zone starts, to 23:00 on the next day is predicted. Further, the start and end of the day may be from the end time of the midnight power time zone to the start time of the midnight power time zone.

The start time of the power generation forecast is typically one hour before the start of the midnight power time zone (generally 23:00 pm), but is not limited to that, even at 23:00. Good. In addition, after the amount of power generation is predicted, the target state (setting state such as boiling free capacity, storage free capacity, storage (boiling) schedule, etc.) can be secured at the end of the midnight power time zone by the processing described later. , It may be after 23:00. As a result, processing can be performed over a wider time zone, and processing can be performed in an appropriate time zone for each power charge and contract content.

Specifically, the method of predicting the amount of power generation is as follows. First, the power generation amount prediction unit 110 predicts the power generation amount by multiplying a specific coefficient by using the solar radiation amount prediction data of the area on the next day included in the weather information. The coefficient is derived from the correlation between past solar radiation amount information and power generation amount. By using the past power generation history data, the value will be a value that takes into account the installation location and orientation, the surrounding environment (shadows, etc.), the performance of the device, and the deterioration status. The past power generation history data typically uses data for a period of about one week, but the optimum period may vary depending on the usage conditions of the user. Therefore, the optimum period may be derived separately. Highly accurate predictions can be made by using the power generation history based on the season, weather, temperature, or deterioration of the solar cell module 91.

The power generation amount prediction unit 110 transmits time-series data of the predicted power generation amount (predicted value of the daily power generation amount by the solar cell module 91) to the predicted value acquisition unit 130. Since the time when power can be generated by natural energy varies depending on the season, the time series of power generation is not limited to the above-mentioned time.
[Power consumption prediction unit 120]
Similar to the power generation prediction unit 110, the power consumption prediction unit 120 acquires weather information and consumption history, that is, the actual value of the total power consumption of each power consumption device 92 and the hot water storage type water heater 95, and consumes power. Predict the amount. The power consumption prediction unit 120 transmits the time series of the obtained predicted power consumption to the prediction value acquisition unit 130.

[Predicted value acquisition unit 130]
The predicted value acquisition unit 130 calculates the time series of the surplus electric energy based on the time series of the received predicted power generation amount and the time series of the predicted power consumption amount. The predicted value acquisition unit 130 transmits the calculated time series of the surplus electric energy to the energy management unit 542, which will be described later. Further, the calculated surplus electric energy is stored in the controller memory 53.
[Residual amount acquisition unit 150]
In response to the request from the storage allocation unit 164, the residual amount acquisition unit 150 transmits the residual amount of the storage battery 94 at the start time of the midnight power time zone to the storage allocation unit 164. Further, the time series of the amount of stored electricity stored in the storage battery 94 is stored in the controller memory 53. This part corresponds to the electricity storage amount monitoring unit 541 shown in FIG.
Further, the residual amount acquisition unit 150 transmits the residual amount of the hot water storage type water heater 95 at the start time of the midnight power time zone to the boiling allocation unit 163 in response to the request from the boiling allocation unit 163.

[Energy Management Department 542]
The energy management unit 542 includes a surplus presence / absence determination unit 161, a boiling allocation unit 163, and a storage allocation unit 164.
The energy management unit 542 transmits the time series of the predicted surplus electric energy received from the predicted value acquisition unit 130 to the surplus presence / absence determination unit 161. When there is no predicted surplus electric energy, the energy management unit 542 controls so that the storage battery 94 stores electricity until the storage battery 94 reaches the full electric energy during the midnight electric power time zone. However, if the predicted power consumption on the next day is smaller than the storage capacity of the storage battery 94, the battery does not store the full storage capacity and charges up to the storage capacity according to the predicted power consumption. If there is no predicted surplus electric energy, it is boiled in the midnight electric energy time zone, if possible, until the hot water storage amount of the hot water storage type water heater 95 is full.
On the other hand, the control when there is the predicted surplus power will be described in the following surplus presence / absence determination unit 161.

[Existence determination unit 161]
The surplus presence / absence determination unit 161 uses the received predicted surplus power amount to determine whether or not there is a predicted surplus power amount, that is, whether or not there is a time zone in which the predicted surplus power amount> 0 in the time series of the surplus power amount. To do. When it is determined that there is a predicted surplus electric energy, the surplus presence / absence determination unit 161 transmits a time series of the predicted surplus electric energy to the storage allocation unit 164.

[Boiling allocation unit 163]
The boiling allocation unit 163 sends a request to the residual amount acquisition unit 150 to transmit the hot water storage amount of the current hot water storage type water heater 95, and acquires the hot water storage amount. After that, using the time series of the predicted surplus electric power received, the time for boiling and the amount of power supplied to the hot water storage type water heater 95 corresponding to the amount of boiling (power supply period) are determined as the planned amount of power to be heated. .. In other words, it is based on the data received from the power generation / consumption history 101 indicating when and how much hot water is required, and the predicted data received from the predicted value acquisition unit 130 when and how much surplus power is generated. Then decide when and how much to boil. When there is no predicted surplus electric energy, the hot water storage type water heater 95 is boiled until the hot water storage amount is full, whereas when there is a predicted surplus electric energy, the hot water storage type water heater 95 is boiled accordingly. In other words, the amount of power supplied to the hot water storage type water heater 95 is suppressed.
However, whether or not the amount of power supplied to the hot water storage type water heater 95 is actually suppressed depends on the determination of the controllability determination unit 165 described later.
Then, the boiling allocation unit 163 stores the suppressed power supply amount to the hot water storage type water heater 95 in the controller memory 53 and leaves a history.
By setting the power purchase schedule in the midnight power time zone and the boiling schedule in the surplus power period, the controller 10 can secure the free capacity of the hot water storage type water heater 95 at the end of the midnight power time zone.

[Storage allocation unit 164]
The power storage allocation unit 164 determines the amount of power obtained by subtracting the amount of power to be boiled from the time series of the predicted surplus power as the amount of power to be stored, which is the planned charge of the storage battery 94. That is, first, the amount of power supplied to the hot water storage type water heater 95 is allocated, and when there is a surplus, the amount of electricity stored in the storage battery 94 is allocated, and the amount of electricity stored in the storage battery 94 is adjusted.
If there is no deducted electric energy obtained by subtracting the planned boiling electric energy from the predicted surplus electric energy, the storage battery 94 is stored until the storage capacity is full (however, if the deducted electric energy is smaller than the storage capacity, the storage amount is increased accordingly. If there is a deducted electric energy, the adjustment amount for suppressing the electric energy storage in the storage battery 94 is determined accordingly.
However, whether or not the electricity storage is actually suppressed depends on the determination of the controllability determination unit 165 described later.
Then, the storage allocation unit 164 stores the suppressed storage adjustment amount in the controller memory 53 and leaves a history.

The electricity storage (boiling) schedule 103 is a future schedule of power generation, consumption, purchase, electricity storage, discharge, and boiling of the power control system 100, which is set by the electricity storage allocation unit 164 and the boiling allocation unit 163.
The storage (boiling) schedule 103 is included in the controller memory 53 shown in FIG.
By setting the power purchase schedule in the midnight power time zone and the power storage schedule in the surplus power period, the controller 10 can secure the free capacity of the storage battery 94 at the end of the midnight power time zone.
[Controllability determination unit 165]
The controllability determination unit 165 refers to the power generation / consumption history 101, and when the state of the power control system 100 is predicted to have surplus power, the amount of electricity stored in the storage battery 94 and the power supply to the hot water storage type water heater 95. It is determined whether or not the user is likely to suffer an economic disadvantage if the amount is suppressed. That is, the magnitude of the possibility of a negative economic effect is determined. If it is determined that the possibility is high, the storage allocation unit 164 does not suppress the amount of electricity stored in the storage battery 94 during the midnight power hours, and similarly, the boiling allocation unit 163 sends the hot water storage type water heater 95. Do not suppress the amount of power supply.

[Battery control unit 170]
The storage battery control unit 170 controls the storage battery 94 according to the set storage (boiling) schedule 103.
The storage battery control unit 170 stores the storage battery 94 according to a schedule during the midnight power time zone. After the end of the midnight power time zone, if the power generation amount of the solar cell module 91 is less than the total power consumption amount of the power consumption device 92 (including the power consumption amount related to the boiling of the hot water storage type water heater 95), the power is discharged. Suppress the amount of power purchased from the commercial power system 96. On the contrary, if the amount of power generated by the solar cell module 91 exceeds the total amount of power consumed by the power consuming device 92, the storage battery 94 is stored with surplus power. The amount of power generated by the solar cell module 91 fluctuates on a scale shorter than the time step of the power generation / consumption history 101, for example, in seconds, due to fluctuations in the natural environment, specifically, fluctuations in the amount of sunshine. As a result of the storage battery control unit 170 controlling the charging / discharging of the storage battery 94 after the midnight power time zone as described above, the storage battery 94 absorbs fluctuations on a short time scale.

If the prediction is wrong on the side where the amount of power generation is small, the storage battery control unit 170 may cause the storage battery 94 to perform a discharge operation. For example, if the prediction is wrong on the side where the amount of power generation is small while the hot water storage type water heater 95 is boiling, the insufficient power is supplemented by discharging from the storage battery 94. As a result, the amount of electric power purchased from the commercial electric power system 96 can be suppressed by allocating the amount of electric power generated by natural energy.
[Water heater control unit 180]
The water heater control unit 180 controls the hot water storage type water heater 95 according to the set storage (boiling) schedule 103. That is, the amount of power supplied to the hot water storage type water heater is suppressed.

≪Standard mode for energy management≫
Subsequently, the reference mode of energy management in the power control system 100 will be described.
The controllability determination unit 165 determines the degree of possibility that the user suffers an economic disadvantage by suppressing the amount of electricity stored in the storage battery 94 and the amount of power supplied to the hot water storage type water heater 95 when it is predicted that there is surplus electric power. judge. That is, the magnitude of the possibility of a negative economic effect is determined. Here, the determination regarding the positive or negative of the economic effect is made with respect to some standard, and the energy management mode that serves as the standard is referred to as a reference mode in this specification.
Energy management in the reference mode is performed as follows.

In the reference mode, the energy management unit 542 stores electricity until the storage battery 94 is fully charged during the midnight power time zone. Further, the water heater control unit 180 performs boiling until the hot water storage type water heater 95 is full.
That is, the energy management in the reference mode does not suppress the storage and boiling in the midnight power time zone based on the amount of surplus power predicted to be generated the next day.
During the daytime after the midnight power time zone ends, during the time zone when the total power consumption by the power consuming device 92 is larger than the generated power of the solar cell module 91, the storage battery 94 is discharged to suppress the amount of power purchased.
During the daytime, when the generated power is larger than the total power consumption, that is, when the surplus power is generated, the storage battery 94 is stored with the surplus power. The stored power is applied to the power consumption at night when the power generated by solar power cannot be obtained, and the amount of power purchased is suppressed.

≪Energy management based on predicted surplus electricity and its economic effect≫
In contrast to the above-mentioned reference mode, in this embodiment, the storage amount of the storage battery 94 in the midnight power time zone is suppressed based on the predicted surplus power amount, and the boiling of the hot water storage type water heater 95 is suppressed.
Specifically, the predicted value acquisition unit 130 determines the amount of surplus power based on the time series of the predicted power generation provided by the power generation prediction unit 110 and the time series of the predicted power consumption provided by the power consumption prediction unit 120. Calculate the time series.
If it is predicted that no surplus power will be generated the next day, the same storage and boiling as in the reference mode will be performed.
On the other hand, when it is predicted that the surplus electric energy will be generated the next day, the energy management unit 542 suppresses the electric energy storage amount of the storage battery 94 in the midnight electric energy time zone based on the calculated time series of the surplus electric energy. If there is a margin in the predicted surplus electric power, the boiling of the hot water storage type water heater 95 is also suppressed.

FIG. 3A is an explanatory diagram showing elements related to the flow of electric power extracted in the electric power control system of FIG. The arrow in FIG. 3A indicates the flow of electric power in the reference direction. That is, the flow of power in the direction of the arrow is defined as a positive value. Regarding the storage battery 94, discharge is a positive power flow, and storage is a negative power flow. For the commercial power system 96, purchasing power is a positive power flow and selling power is a negative power flow.
FIG. 3B shows a typical example of the power flow during the midnight power time zone in the above-mentioned reference mode. The part where the magnitude and direction of the power flow is different from that of FIG. 3A is surrounded by a power symbol. As shown in FIG. 3B, it is highly possible that the solar cell module 91 does not generate electricity during the midnight power hours. Further, in the midnight power time zone, the storage battery 94 is stored with inexpensive power from the commercial power system 96 so as to be in a fully charged state. The hot water storage type water heater 95 is also boiled so as to be full.

FIG. 3C shows a typical example of power flow in a reference mode with surplus power during the day. During the daytime, the solar cell module 91 generates electricity. The storage battery 94 is basically stored up to a fully charged state with the power stored in the midnight power time zone, and there is no room for storing with the surplus power. The surplus power is sold to the commercial power system 96. However, if the amount of surplus electricity is small, the electricity will not be sold.
FIG. 3D shows a typical example of power flow in the reference mode with no surplus power during the day. During the daytime, the solar cell module 91 is generated, and the storage battery 94 is discharged to cover the power consumption of the power consuming device 92. Even so, the power consumption of the power consuming device 92 exceeds, so power is purchased from the commercial power system 96.

3E to 3G correspond to FIGS. 3B to 3D, respectively, and show a typical electric power flow in the energy management mode (hereinafter, also referred to as energy management mode) according to this embodiment.
That is, FIG. 3E shows a typical example of power flow in the midnight power time zone in the energy management mode. The power flow shown in FIG. 3E is the same as in FIG. 3B. However, it differs from FIG. 3B in that the amount of electricity stored in the storage battery 94 and the boiling of the hot water storage type water heater 95 may be suppressed based on the predicted surplus power generation amount.

FIG. 3F shows a typical example of power flow in the energy management mode with surplus power during the day. The difference from FIG. 3C is that electricity is stored in the storage battery 94 instead of being sold to the commercial power system 96. Since the generation of surplus power is predicted and the amount of electricity stored during the midnight power hours is suppressed, the storage battery 94 has room for electricity storage during the daytime. However, the amount of surplus power that cannot be stored in the storage battery 94 is sold.
FIG. 3G shows a typical example of power flow in the energy management mode with no surplus power during the day. The flow of power when there is no surplus power is the same as in FIG. 3D.
In the above, the difference in typical power flow between the reference mode and the energy management mode according to this embodiment has been described.

However, there is a prediction error between the predicted power generation amount and the actual value of the power generation amount. There is also a prediction error between the predicted power consumption and the actual value of the power consumption.
Negative economic effects occur, for example, when it rains even though it is predicted to be sunny based on weather information.
When it is predicted that it will be fine, the energy management mode hardly stores electricity in the storage battery 94 during the midnight power hours. On the other hand, in the reference mode, the storage battery 94 is charged so as to be fully charged during the midnight power time zone.
When it rains in this state, in the energy management mode, the stored amount of the storage battery 94 is immediately emptied, and the shortage is supplemented by purchasing electricity. In this case, the amount of power purchased is clearly larger than that of the reference mode.
In other words, energy management in the energy management mode has a negative economic effect on energy management in the reference mode.

On the other hand, a positive economic effect occurs when, for example, it is predicted to be sunny based on meteorological information and it is sunny as predicted.
When it is predicted that it will be fine, as described above, in the energy management mode, the storage of electricity in the storage battery 94 is suppressed during the midnight power time zone. For example, it hardly stores electricity. On the other hand, in the reference mode, the storage battery 94 is charged so as to be fully charged during the midnight power time zone.
When it becomes sunny in this state, the surplus power can be stored in the storage battery 94 in the energy management mode, but in the reference mode, there is no room to store the surplus power in the storage battery 94 and the power is sold, but the unit price of the power sold is the storage battery. It is assumed that it is cheaper than the unit price of electricity purchased during the midnight electricity hours when electricity is stored in 94.
In other words, in the reference mode, the storage battery 94 is charged during the midnight power hours, so that the surplus power in the daytime cannot be stored, and the unit price is low. However, in the energy management mode, the surplus power in the daytime is stored in the storage battery 94. To be able to store electricity. Energy management in the energy management mode improves the balance of electricity charges over energy management in the reference mode and produces a positive economic effect.

≪Determining the possibility of negative economic effects≫
In this embodiment, not only the storage and boiling of electricity in the midnight power time zone are suppressed based on the predicted surplus power generation amount, but also the degree of possibility that a negative economic effect is generated for the user is determined as a result of the suppression control. However, if the possibility is high, suppress control should not be performed.
Judgment of the possibility of negative economic effects is made based on past performance. The past performance may be the total performance of the commercial power system 96, but it may be performed based on the performance of each power control system, which is particularly preferable when considering the latest transition of the performance. ..
In this specification, it is assumed that the user is different for each power control system. That is, each user means each power control system.

FIG. 4 is a graph showing an example of data referred to by the controllability determination unit 165 as a basis for determining whether or not the amount of electricity stored and boiling can be suppressed in the midnight power time zone in this embodiment. The graph is based on the data stored in the power generation / consumption history 101. For multiple users, the graph is plotted based on the actual value of monthly power consumption and the actual value of power generation. It is based on the actual value of each user over multiple months. It is convenient to use one month as a unit, and the aggregation period is not limited to this. For example, the aggregation period may be half a month or a predetermined period other than that.
In addition, in order to show that the judgment index is effective for a plurality of users, FIG. 4 finds the correlation based on the actual values of the plurality of users. However, the actual judgment may be made based on the correlation for each user.

In FIG. 4, the horizontal axis is the number of days in which the “actual value of power consumption” / “actual value of power generation” exceeds 1 in each month. The vertical axis represents the magnitude of the economic effect of the month (both positive and negative). Here, the economic effect of each month is calculated as follows.
The controllability determination unit 165 refers to the controller memory 53, and based on the predicted surplus power amount on the next day, the history of the amount of electricity stored in the storage battery 94 and the history of the amount of power supplied to the hot water storage type water heater 95 during the midnight power time zone. To get. In addition, the actual value of the daily power generation amount and the actual value of the power consumption amount stored in the power generation / consumption history 101 are acquired.

Then, on the day when the stored amount and the power supply amount are suppressed based on the predicted surplus power amount on the next day, the electricity cost required for storing the storage battery 94 and supplying power to the hot water storage type water heater 95 in the midnight power time zone is calculated. To do. That is, the electricity bill required for the storage and the power supply in the midnight power time zone in the energy management mode is calculated.
Further, in the same midnight power time zone, the electricity bill is calculated when the storage battery 94 is stored until it is fully charged and the hot water storage type water heater 95 is boiled until it is fully charged. That is, the electricity bill required for the electricity storage and the power supply in the midnight power time zone in the reference mode is calculated.
Furthermore, the electricity bill corresponding to the power consumption during the daytime after that is calculated. That is, the electricity bill is calculated based on the actual power consumption in the energy management mode. Furthermore, the amount of power consumed during the day and the electricity bill based on the power consumption in the reference mode are calculated. The surplus power that cannot be stored when the storage battery 94 is fully charged is sold, and the electricity cost obtained by selling the power is calculated.

The economic effect is
Economic effect = Electricity cost in standard mode-Electricity cost in energy management mode.

If the suppressed power amount and the purchased power amount are equal, that is, if the suppressed power amount is purchased entirely during the daytime after midnight, the economic effect becomes zero. In this case, it is equal to the reference mode.
In the reference mode, the amount of suppressed power is zero because the power is stored until it is fully charged during the midnight power time zone. When fully charged in the energy management mode during midnight power hours, the economic effect of the above formula is always zero.
On the other hand, if the amount of power purchased exceeds the amount of suppressed power, a negative economic effect will occur. When a negative economic effect occurs, as a result, it can be said that it is more economical not to suppress the amount of electricity stored in the storage battery 94 and the amount of power supplied to the hot water storage type water heater 95 based on the predicted surplus power generation amount.

According to FIG. 4, users whose "actual value of power consumption" / "actual value of power generation" exceeds 1 for more than 15 days, such as user 1 and user 2, can have a zero or negative economic effect. Highly sexual. On the other hand, users whose "actual value of power consumption" / "actual value of power generation" exceeds 1 for 15 days or less, for example, user 5 and user 6, may have a positive economic effect. high.
For the user 4, although the number of days may exceed 15 days in some cases, most of them are 15 days or less, and there is a high possibility that a positive economic effect will be obtained.
For the user 3, the case where the number of days exceeds 15 days and the case where the number of days is 15 days or less are almost in competition, and there are cases where a positive economic effect is obtained and a case where a negative economic effect is obtained correspondingly.
From this, the number of days in which the "actual value of power consumption" / "actual value of power generation" exceeds 1 for each predetermined aggregation period (1 month in the case of Fig. 4) and the economic effect in each aggregation period. By finding the correlation, it is possible to determine the magnitude of the possibility of a negative economic effect.
Note that "15 days" is only an example of the reference number of days selected based on the graph of the actual values shown in FIG.

Note that FIG. 4 shows the correlation based on the monthly results of different users. For example, even if the same user such as user 3 is used, either positive or negative depending on the natural environment or the usage status of the power consuming device. It can also have an economic effect. Therefore, the correlation may be obtained for each user to determine the magnitude of the possibility of a negative economic effect.
In addition, since there is a high possibility that a negative economic effect will occur, there is also a correlation between actual values regarding the criteria for not suppressing the amount of electricity stored in the storage battery 94 or the amount of electricity supplied to the hot water storage type water heater 95 during midnight hours. A suitable standard may be set based on.

≪Energy management based on judgment related to economic effect≫
Subsequently, the process executed by the controllability determination unit 165 will be described.
FIG. 5 is a diagram showing an example of switching whether or not the amount of electricity stored in the electricity stored in the midnight power time zone can be suppressed by the controllability determination unit 165.
In the example shown in FIG. 5, the aggregation period is one month, and the standard number of days is 15 days. The top row in Fig. 5 shows each month from August of one year to March of the following year, and the center row shows the "actual value of power consumption" / "actual value of power generation" in each month. Indicates the number of days exceeding 1, that is, the total number of days in each month. The bottom row shows the judgment result of whether or not to suppress the amount of electricity stored in the midnight power time zone of the next month based on the predicted surplus power amount based on the aggregation result shown in the middle row.

The controllability determination unit 165 determines the controllability of the next month at the end of the aggregation period, that is, at the end of each month.
For example, as shown in FIG. 5, in August, the total number of days is less than or equal to the reference number of days (a specific example in FIG. 5 is 15 days). Based on the results, the next September will be the judgment result that suppression control is possible. In other words, it is unlikely that a negative economic effect will occur in September. Therefore, based on the predicted surplus electric energy, the amount of electricity stored in the midnight electric energy time zone is suppressed. The "○" in September at the bottom line indicates that.

The total number of days in September is also less than the standard number of days. Based on the results, the judgment result is that suppression control is possible in October as well as in September (see "○" in October at the bottom).
The total number of days in October is 16 days, which exceeds the base number of 15 days. Based on the results, it is judged that there is a high possibility that a negative economic effect will occur from the following November. Therefore, from November, the suppression of the amount of electricity stored during the midnight power hours will be suspended based on the predicted surplus electricity (see "Holiday" in November at the bottom).

Once it is determined that the amount of electricity stored in the midnight power hours will not be suppressed, the suppression of the amount of electricity stored in the midnight electricity hours will not be resumed until the month in which the aggregation date is less than the reference number continues for three months.
In addition, 3 months is an example. Depending on whether the transition of the controllability judgment based on the total number of days is stable or unstable, the number of months for which the suppression control is judged to be restarted may be appropriately set. Set a smaller number of months if the transition is stable, and a larger number of months if the transition is unstable. Moreover, the setting of the number of months may be different for each user.

In FIG. 5, for three months from November to January, the months in which the total date is less than or equal to the reference number of days continue. Therefore, in February of the month following January, the suppression of electricity storage will be resumed (see "○" in February at the bottom).
From November to January until then, there will be a period in which the amount of electricity stored is not suppressed (see "○" in November to January at the bottom).
By setting the criteria for resuming suppression control more strictly than the criteria for suspending suppression control, it is possible to prevent the judgment of control availability from becoming unstable.

(Embodiment 2)
In the first embodiment, the number of days in which the "actual value of power consumption" / "actual value of power generation" exceeds 1 throughout one month of the aggregation period, in other words, the actual value of power generation is the actual value of power consumption. The number of days that fell short was counted, but instead, the number of days in which the "actual value of power consumption" / "actual value of power generation" exceeds 1 may be counted for the most recent predetermined period of the aggregation period. ..
By doing so, the determination can be made based on the latest situation in the aggregation period.
For example, the aggregation period is "1 month" and the predetermined number of days is half the number of days in the month. For the latter half of this month, the controllability judgment unit 165 counts the number of days when the "actual value of power consumption" / "actual value of power generation" is 1 or more, and determines whether or not the reference number of days has been exceeded. ..

(Embodiment 3)
Further, the reference number of days for determining that a negative economic effect is likely to occur has been described on the premise of a fixed value in the first embodiment, but the controllability determination unit 165 changes the reference number of days based on the latest situation. You may.
According to this aspect, the reference number of days for judgment can be updated based on the latest situation and corrected to an appropriate value.

For example, the controllability determination unit 165 determines that the number of days when a disadvantage has occurred has increased recently even though the amount of electricity stored has not been suppressed because it is judged that the possibility of a negative economic effect is small. When the determination is made, the controllability determination unit 165 reduces the reference number of days so that the amount of electricity stored can be suppressed more easily. On the contrary, if it is judged that there is a high possibility that an unfavorable economic effect will occur and the amount of electricity stored is suppressed, but it is judged that the number of days when no disadvantage has occurred has increased recently, control is possible or not. The determination unit 165 increases the number of reference days to make it more difficult to suppress the amount of electricity stored.

(Embodiment 4)
In the above embodiment, the possibility that a negative economic effect will occur is determined based on the correlation between the number of days in which the "actual value of power consumption" / "actual value of power generation" is 1 or more and the economic effect. Deciding.
On the other hand, this embodiment determines the magnitude of the possibility of a negative economic effect depending on the magnitude of the prediction error. Here, since the prediction error is the difference between the predicted value and the actual value, it is common to the method of the first embodiment in determining the possibility of a negative economic effect based on the past actual results.

In this embodiment, the controllability determination unit 165 acquires the predicted value and the actual value of the daily power generation, and the predicted value and the actual value of the daily power consumption, respectively. Then, the average of the prediction errors during the aggregation period is calculated. When the calculated average error exceeds a predetermined threshold value, the amount of electricity stored is not suppressed during the midnight power hours.
According to this embodiment, the magnitude of the possibility of a negative economic effect is determined based on the prediction error.
For example, when the aggregation period is "1 month" and the average of the total of the predicted errors of the generated power and the power consumption of this month exceeds a predetermined threshold value, the controllability determination unit 165 will start the storage amount from the next month. Pause the suppression of.

(Embodiment 5)
In the fourth embodiment, the magnitude of the possibility of a negative economic effect is determined based on the average of the prediction errors over one month of the aggregation period, but instead, the most recent predetermined period of the aggregation period is targeted. The average of the prediction errors may be calculated.
According to this aspect, it is possible to determine the magnitude of the possibility of a negative economic effect based on the average of the prediction errors in the most recent predetermined number of days in the aggregation period. That is, the determination can be made based on the latest average error situation.
For example, suppose that the aggregation period is "one month" and the predetermined number of days is half the number of days in the month. In that case, the control unit calculates the average error between the predicted value and the actual value for the latter half of this month, and determines whether or not the calculated average error exceeds the threshold value.

(Embodiment 6)
Further, the threshold value for determining that a negative economic effect is likely to occur has been described on the premise of a fixed value in the fourth embodiment, but even if the controllability determination unit 165 changes the threshold value based on the latest situation. Good.
In this way, the threshold value for judgment can be updated based on the latest situation and corrected to an appropriate value.

For example, if it is judged that the possibility of a negative economic effect is small and the amount of electricity stored is not suppressed, but it is judged that the number of days when a disadvantage has occurred has increased recently, control is performed. The unit reduces the threshold value to make it easier to suppress the amount of electricity stored. On the contrary, it was judged that the number of days when no disadvantage occurred has increased recently even though it was judged that there is a high possibility that the user would be economically disadvantaged and the amount of electricity stored was suppressed. In this case, the control unit increases the threshold value to make it more difficult to suppress the amount of stored electricity.

(Embodiment 7)
In this embodiment, the controllability determination unit 165 has the number of days in which the "actual value of power consumption" / "actual value of power generation" described in the first embodiment is 1 or more, and the prediction error described in the fourth embodiment. Combine with the average of to determine the magnitude of the potential for negative economic effects.
In this way, the number of days when the actual value of power generation falls below the actual value of power consumption during the aggregation period, that is, the number of days when the "actual value of power consumption" / "actual value of power generation" is 1 or more. , It is possible to judge the magnitude of the possibility of negative economic effect due to the error between the predicted value and the actual value based on both the average of the predicted error and the average.
For example, the aggregation period is "1 month". When the number of days when the "actual value of power consumption" / "actual value of power generation" exceeds 1 throughout the aggregation period exceeds the standard number of days, and the average of the prediction errors throughout the aggregation period exceeds the threshold value. The controllability determination unit 165 will stop suppressing the amount of electricity stored from the next month.

(Embodiment 8)
In the first embodiment, when the total number of days for which the "actual value of power consumption" / "actual value of power generation" is 1 or more exceeds the reference number of days, the amount of electricity stored is suppressed during the midnight power hours from the next total period. To pause. After that, when the totaling period does not exceed the reference number of days continues for a predetermined number of times, the suppression of the amount of electricity stored and the like is resumed from the next totaling period in the midnight power time zone.
The same method is applied to the judgment based on the prediction error described in the fourth embodiment. That is, when the average of the prediction errors of the aggregation period exceeds the threshold value, the suppression of the amount of electricity stored and the like is suspended from the next aggregation period to the midnight power time zone. After that, when the aggregation period in which the average of the prediction errors does not exceed the threshold value continues for a predetermined number of times, the suppression of the amount of electricity stored and the like is restarted from the next aggregation period in the midnight power time zone.
In this way, it is judged that there is a high possibility that a negative economic effect will occur based on the average error between the predicted value and the actual value, and after suspending the suppression of the amount of electricity stored from the next aggregation period, a predetermined number of aggregations will be made. It is possible to resume the implementation of control of the amount of electricity stored, etc. based on the transition of the situation over the period.

(Embodiment 9)
In the first embodiment, after the suppression of the amount of electricity stored is suspended during the midnight power time zone, the suppression of the amount of electricity stored is resumed when the aggregation period in which the total number of days does not exceed the reference number continues for a predetermined number of times.
Similarly, in the eighth embodiment, after the suppression of the stored amount and the like is suspended during the midnight power time zone, the suppression of the stored amount and the like is resumed when the aggregation period in which the average of the prediction errors does not exceed the threshold value continues for a predetermined number of times. ..
The number of aggregation periods related to the decision to resume is assumed to be a fixed value.
On the other hand, in this embodiment, the controllability determination unit 165 updates the number of aggregation periods related to the determination of resumption based on the latest transition.
According to this aspect, the number of aggregation periods related to the determination of resumption can be updated based on the latest transition and corrected to an appropriate value.

As mentioned above
(I) The power storage control device according to the present invention includes a power generation device that uses sunlight to generate power, a power storage device that stores power from the power generation device and an external commercial power system, and the power generation device, the commercial power system, and the power storage. A device that controls the storage of electricity in the power storage device in a system including one or more devices that are operated by the power from the device, and the predicted power generation amount and the device which are predicted values of the power generation amount of the power generation device at predetermined time intervals. The control unit includes a prediction value acquisition unit that acquires the predicted surplus power generation amount from the predicted power consumption amount that is the predicted value of the power consumption amount for each predetermined time, and a control unit that controls the storage of electricity in the power storage device. , Judgment whether to suppress the amount of electricity stored from the commercial power system to the electricity storage device during the midnight electricity hours in order to reduce the amount of electricity purchased outside the midnight electricity hours based on the predicted surplus power generation amount. However, there is a possibility that an economic disadvantage may occur due to an error between the predicted value and the actual value based on the actual value of the past power generation amount of the power generation device and the actual value of the past power consumption amount of the device. It is characterized in that the magnitude is determined, and when the possibility exceeds a predetermined standard, the amount of electricity stored is controlled so as not to be suppressed.

In the present invention, the power storage control device including the predicted value acquisition unit and the control unit is typically composed of a memory, an input / output circuit, and the like centering on a CPU as a hardware resource. That is, the function of the energy storage control device is realized by the CPU executing the control program stored in the memory. However, the specific mode of the hardware resource is not limited to this, and the mode does not matter as long as it realizes the same function.
Specifically, the controller 10 in the above-described embodiment corresponds to the power storage control device in the present invention. Further, the predicted value acquisition unit 130 in the embodiment corresponds to the predicted value acquisition unit in the present invention. Further, the energy management unit 542 in the embodiment corresponds to the control unit in the present invention.

In addition, power purchase is to receive power supply from an external commercial power system to a power control system. The electric power supplied from the commercial electric power system is consumed by the electric power consuming device in the electric power control system or stored in the storage battery.
On the other hand, selling power means sending power from a power control system to an external commercial power system. Normally, surplus power generated by a power generation device in a power control system but not consumed by a power consuming device is charged to a storage battery, and power that cannot be stored in the storage battery is sold.

The unit price for purchasing and selling electricity is determined by the contract between the user (electric power user) related to the electric power control system and the electric power company that operates the commercial electric power system. In general, the unit price of electricity purchase varies depending on the time of day. That is, in the midnight power time zone where the power demand is low, the power purchase unit price is set lower than that outside the midnight power time zone where the power demand is high. With such a fee structure, electric power companies are trying to level the demand for electric power. The midnight power hours are typically from 23:00 pm to 7:00 am. However, the start and end of the midnight power hours may be set at different times depending on the power company and contract.

Further, in this specification, it is premised that the unit price of electricity sold is set lower than the unit price of electricity purchased during the midnight electricity hours. Therefore, reducing the amount of electricity purchased is an economic benefit for the user.
The amount of power generated by photovoltaic power generation fluctuates from moment to moment depending on the natural environment. In addition, the amount of power consumed by the power consuming device fluctuates from moment to moment. In order to reduce the amount of electricity purchased, it is necessary to anticipate these fluctuations and control the timing and amount of electricity storage in advance based on these fluctuations.
Preliminary control secures free capacity that can be stored in the power storage device when surplus power is generated, while power stored in the storage battery when there is no surplus power and power purchase is about to occur. The ideal is to allocate the above to reduce the purchase of electricity.
However, it is inevitable that an error will occur between the predicted value and the actual value. Moreover, the magnitude of the error cannot be calculated in advance. This is because if the error can be calculated in advance, the error can be made zero, and therefore the error can be avoided.
However, it is possible to statistically predict the magnitude of the error based on past performance.

Further, preferred embodiments of the present invention will be described.
(Ii) The control unit determines the power consumption from the actual value of the power generation amount on the day when the predicted surplus power generation amount is predicted to occur during any of the totalization periods in the past multiple totaling periods. The difference between the actual surplus power generation after deducting the actual value and the amount of electricity stored that was suppressed based on the forecast for that day, (2) The number of days when the actual power generation value fell below the actual power consumption value during each aggregation period. You may judge the magnitude of the possibility that an economic disadvantage will occur based on the correlation of.
In this way, it is possible to determine the magnitude of the possibility that an economic disadvantage (negative economic effect) will occur based on the correlation between (1) and (2) above.

(Iii) The control unit predicts the presence or absence of the predicted surplus power generation amount on a daily basis, makes a judgment regarding the possibility of occurrence of economic disadvantage for each predetermined totaling period, and the actual value of the power generation amount in the current totaling period. The above judgment is made based on whether or not the number of days when the actual power consumption is less than the actual value exceeds the predetermined standard number of days, and if the number of days exceeds the standard number of days, it is predicted that the predicted surplus power generation amount will be generated in the next aggregation period. The amount of electricity stored may be controlled so as not to be suppressed even on the day when the electricity is stored.
In this way, the number of days when the actual value of power generation is less than the actual value of power consumption in the current aggregation period, that is, the number of days when the "actual value of power consumption" / "actual value of power generation" is 1 or more. If the number of days exceeds the standard number of days, it is judged that there is a high possibility that a negative economic effect will occur due to the error between the predicted value and the actual value, and the suppression of the amount of electricity stored can be suspended from the next aggregation period.
An example of the aggregation period is "1 month". In that case, if the number of days for which the "actual value of power consumption" / "actual value of power generation" of this month is 1 or more exceeds the reference number of days, the control unit does not suppress the amount of electricity stored from the next month.

(Iv) The control unit determines whether or not the day when the actual value of power generation falls below the actual value of power consumption exceeds the reference number of days, targeting the most recent predetermined number of days in the current aggregation period. May be good.
In this way, it is possible to determine the magnitude of the possibility of a negative economic effect based on the actual results in the most recent predetermined number of days in the current aggregation period. That is, the determination can be made based on the latest situation.

(V) The control unit may update the reference number of days based on the latest transition of whether or not the actual surplus electric energy exceeds the amount of electricity stored suppressed based on the prediction.
In this way, the reference number of days for judgment can be updated based on the latest situation and corrected to an appropriate value.

(Vi) The control unit predicts the occurrence of predicted surplus power generation on a daily basis, makes a judgment regarding the possibility of occurrence of economic disadvantage for each aggregation period, and determines the predicted value and the actual value in the current aggregation period. Calculate the average of the errors, and if the calculated average error exceeds a predetermined threshold, do not suppress the amount of electricity stored even on the day when the predicted surplus power generation is predicted to occur during the next aggregation period. May be good.
In this way, if the average of the error between the predicted value and the actual value exceeds the threshold value, it is judged that there is a high possibility that a negative economic effect will occur due to the average error, and the amount of electricity stored will be increased from the next aggregation period. Suppression can be paused.

(Vii) The control unit predicts the occurrence of predicted surplus power generation on a daily basis, makes a judgment on the possibility of occurrence of economic disadvantage for each aggregation period, and in the latest predetermined number of days in the current aggregation period. If the average of the error between the predicted value and the actual value is calculated and the calculated average error exceeds a predetermined threshold, the amount of electricity stored will be suppressed even on the day when the predicted surplus power generation is predicted to occur during the next aggregation period. May not be done.
In this way, it is possible to determine the magnitude of the possibility of a negative economic effect based on the average error in the most recent predetermined number of days in the current aggregation period. That is, the determination can be made based on the latest average error situation.

(Viii) The control unit may update the threshold value based on the latest transition of the error between the predicted value and the actual value.
In this way, the threshold value for judgment can be updated based on the latest situation and corrected to an appropriate value.
According to this aspect, for example, the number of days when a disadvantage has occurred has increased recently even though the amount of electricity stored was not suppressed because it was judged that the possibility of a negative economic effect was small. When the determination is made, the control unit reduces the threshold value to make it easier to suppress the amount of stored electricity. On the contrary, when it is judged that there is a high possibility that the user will be disadvantaged economically and the amount of electricity stored is suppressed, but it is judged that the number of days when the disadvantage has not occurred has increased recently. , The control unit increases the threshold value to make it more difficult to suppress the amount of electricity stored.

(Ix) The control unit predicts the presence or absence of the predicted surplus power generation amount on a daily basis, makes a judgment regarding the possibility of occurrence of economic disadvantage for each aggregation period, and consumes the actual value of the power generation amount in the current aggregation period. If the number of days below the actual value of electric energy exceeds the predetermined standard number of days, and if the average of the error between the predicted value and the actual value in the current aggregation period exceeds the predetermined threshold, the next aggregation period will be The amount of electricity stored may not be suppressed even on the day when the predicted surplus power generation is predicted to occur.
In this way, the number of days when the actual value of power generation is less than the actual value of power consumption in the current aggregation period, that is, the number of days when the "actual value of power consumption" / "actual value of power generation" is 1 or more. Based on both the predicted value and the average error of the actual value, it is judged that there is a high possibility that a negative economic effect will occur due to the error between the predicted value and the actual value, and the amount of electricity stored will be increased from the next aggregation period. Suppression can be paused.

(X) After deciding not to suppress the amount of electricity stored even on the days when the predicted surplus power generation is predicted to occur because the reference days have been exceeded, the control unit has a predetermined number of consecutive aggregation periods that do not exceed the reference days. If this is the case, the amount of electricity stored may be suppressed on the day when the predicted surplus power generation is predicted to occur from the next aggregation period.
In this way, it is judged that there is a high possibility that a negative economic effect will occur based on the number of days when the "actual value of power consumption" / "actual value of power generation" is 1 or more, and storage will be performed from the next aggregation period. After suspending the suppression of the amount of electricity, it is possible to resume the suppression of the amount of electricity stored based on the transition of the situation over a predetermined number of aggregation periods.

(Xi) After deciding that the storage amount is not suppressed even on the day when the predicted surplus power generation amount is predicted to be generated because the threshold value is exceeded, the control unit continues a predetermined number of aggregation periods not exceeding the threshold value. If this is the case, the amount of electricity stored may be suppressed on the day when the predicted surplus power generation is predicted to occur from the next aggregation period.
In this way, it is judged that there is a high possibility that a negative economic effect will occur based on the average error between the predicted value and the actual value, and after suspending the suppression of the amount of electricity stored from the next aggregation period, a predetermined number of aggregation periods It is possible to resume the implementation of the suppression of the amount of electricity stored based on the transition of the situation.

(Xii) The control unit may update the predetermined number based on the latest transition of the determination.
In this way, the length of the aggregation period related to the determination of resumption can be updated based on the latest transition and corrected to an appropriate value.

(Xiii) The control unit relates to the possibility of causing an economic disadvantage for the power control system based on the actual value of the power generation amount for each power control system and the actual value of the power consumption amount for each power control system. You may make a judgment.
In this way, it is possible to determine the magnitude of the possibility that a negative economic effect related to the power control system will occur based on the performance of each power control system, not the performance of the entire commercial power system.

Preferred embodiments of the present invention include a combination of any of the plurality of embodiments described above.
In addition to the embodiments described above, there may be various variations of the present invention. These variations should not be construed as not belonging to the scope of the present invention. The present invention should include the meaning equivalent to the claims and all modifications within the said scope.

93a: Output terminal, 10: Controller, 34: Bidirectional DC / DC converter, 35: Communication unit, 36: Memory, 37: Electricity meter, 38: Voltmeter, 39: IC, 51: Input unit, 52: Controller Communication unit, 53: Controller memory, 54: Controller IC
81: Distribution board, 91: Solar cell module, 92: Power consumption equipment, 94: Storage battery, 93: Power conditioner, 95: Hot water storage type water heater, 96: Commercial power system, 98: Web network, 100: Power control System, 101: Power generation / consumption history ,, 103: Power storage (boiling) schedule, 110: Power generation amount prediction unit, 120: Power consumption amount prediction unit, 130: Prediction value acquisition unit, 150: Residual amount acquisition unit, 161: Surplus presence / absence determination unit, 163: Boiling allocation unit, 164: Power storage allocation unit, 165: Controllability determination unit, 170: Storage battery control unit, 180: Water heater control unit 371: Power sales meter, 372: Power purchase meter , 541: Storage amount monitoring unit, 542: Energy management unit Efc1, Efc2, Efc: Predicted differential power consumption, Erc1, Erc2, Erc: Actual differential power consumption, Pfg: Predicted power generation power, Pfc: Predicted power consumption, Prg: Actual Generated power, Pr: Actual power consumption P: Transmission line, R: Power receiving point

Claims (8)

A power generation device that generates electricity using sunlight, a power storage device that stores power from the power generation device and an external commercial power system, and one or more devices that operate with power from the power generation device, the commercial power system, and the power storage device. A device that controls electricity storage in the power storage device in a power control system including
Predicted value acquisition unit that acquires the predicted surplus power generation amount from the predicted power generation amount which is the predicted value of the power generation amount of the power generation device for each predetermined time and the predicted power consumption amount which is the predicted value of the power consumption amount of the device for each predetermined time. When,
It is provided with a control unit that controls storage in the power storage device.
Whether the control unit suppresses the amount of electricity stored from the commercial power system to the electricity storage device during the midnight electricity hours in order to reduce the amount of electricity purchased outside the midnight electricity hours, based on the predicted surplus power generation amount. It is judged whether or not, and an economic disadvantage occurs due to an error between the predicted value and the actual value based on the actual value of the past power generation amount of the power generation device and the actual value of the past power consumption amount of the device. A power storage control device that determines the magnitude of the possibility of power generation and controls so that the amount of power stored is not suppressed when the possibility exceeds a predetermined standard. The control unit has been used in a plurality of past aggregation periods.
(1) For the day when the predicted surplus power generation is predicted to occur during any of the aggregation periods, based on the actual surplus power generation amount obtained by subtracting the actual power consumption value from the actual power generation amount on that day and the forecast for that day. Difference from suppressed electricity storage,
(2) The number of days when the actual value of power generation fell below the actual value of power consumption during each aggregation period.
The storage control device according to claim 1, wherein the magnitude of the possibility of occurrence of an economic disadvantage is determined based on the correlation of the above. The control unit predicts the presence or absence of the predicted surplus power generation amount on a daily basis, makes a judgment regarding the possibility of occurrence of economic disadvantage for each predetermined aggregation period, and the actual value of the power generation amount is the power consumption in the current aggregation period. The above judgment is made based on whether or not the number of days below the actual amount exceeds the predetermined reference number of days, and if the number of days exceeds the reference number, the next aggregation period is the day when the predicted surplus power generation is predicted to occur. The storage control device according to claim 2, wherein the storage amount is controlled so as not to be suppressed. The power storage control device according to claim 3, wherein the control unit updates the reference days based on the latest transition of whether or not the actual surplus power amount exceeds the stored power storage amount suppressed based on the prediction. The control unit predicts the occurrence of predicted surplus power generation on a daily basis, makes a judgment regarding the possibility of occurrence of economic disadvantage for each aggregation period, and averages the error between the predicted value and the actual value in the current aggregation period. When the calculated average error exceeds a predetermined threshold value, the storage amount is not suppressed even on the day when the predicted surplus power generation amount is predicted to occur in the next aggregation period. The power storage control device according to. The power storage control device according to claim 5, wherein the control unit updates the threshold value based on the latest transition of an error between a predicted value and an actual value. The control unit predicts the presence or absence of the predicted surplus power generation amount on a daily basis, makes a judgment regarding the possibility of occurrence of economic disadvantage for each aggregation period, and in the current aggregation period, the actual value of the power generation amount is the power consumption amount. If the number of days below the actual value exceeds the predetermined standard number of days, and if the average of the error between the predicted value and the actual value in the current aggregation period exceeds the predetermined threshold, the next aggregation period is the predicted surplus power generation. The storage control device according to claim 2, wherein the storage amount is not suppressed even on a day when the amount is predicted to be generated. After deciding that the control unit does not suppress the amount of electricity stored even on the day when the predicted surplus power generation is predicted to occur because the predetermined standard is exceeded, the aggregation period does not exceed the predetermined standard. The power storage control device according to claim 3 or 5, wherein when a predetermined number of the power generations are consecutive, the power storage amount is suppressed on the day when the predicted surplus power generation amount is predicted to be generated from the next aggregation period.