JP2020092544A - Abnormality estimation system and program - Google Patents

Abstract

To provide an abnormality estimation system for estimating abnormality of a solar power generation device at low cost.SOLUTION: The abnormality estimation system includes: power amount measuring means for measuring a used power amount, which is an amount of power received from a power grid and a reverse flow power amount, which is an amount of power supplied to the power grid; and abnormality estimation means for estimating an abnormality of a solar power generation device based on the used power amount and the reverse flow power amount measured by the power amount measuring means.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

The present invention relates to an abnormality estimation system and a program.

In recent years, devices and the like that can determine the occurrence of an abnormality in a solar power generation device have been proposed.
For example, Patent Document 1 describes the following technique. Photovoltaic power generation based on the daily correlation between the amount of power generated by a solar power generation module that receives sunlight and generates power, and the amount of sunlight energy that is applied to the solar power generation module. A power generation estimation model used to estimate the expected power generation expected to be generated by the module is constructed. Furthermore, the expected power generation amount is estimated based on the power generation power estimation model, and the expected power generation amount is compared with the power generation amount actually generated by the photovoltaic power generation module to determine whether an abnormality has occurred. To judge.

JP, 2014-179464, A

For example, if a device for measuring the power generation amount of the solar power generation device is provided, it is easy to understand the abnormality of the solar power generation device based on the power generation amount measured by the device. However, the device for measuring the amount of power generation is expensive.
An object of the present invention is to provide an abnormality estimation system or the like for estimating an abnormality of a solar power generation device at low cost.

The present invention completed based on such an object is a power amount measurement for measuring a used power amount which is a power amount supplied from a power grid and a reverse flow power amount which is a power amount supplied to the power grid. Means, and an abnormality estimating means for estimating an abnormality of the solar power generation device based on the used electric energy and the reverse flow electric energy measured by the electric energy measuring means. It is an estimation system.
Here, when the fluctuation amount of the used electric energy with respect to the previous year is within a predetermined range, and the reverse flow electric energy is less than a predetermined reference reverse power flow ratio with respect to the previous year, It may be presumed to be abnormal.
Further, the solar power generation device further comprises a power generation amount estimating means for estimating a normal power generation amount which is a power generation amount when the power generation amount is normal, and the abnormality estimating means further includes the power generation amount estimating means. It may be presumed to be abnormal when the normal power generation amount is equal to or higher than a predetermined reference power generation amount ratio with respect to the previous year.
Further, the abnormality estimating means may change the reference reverse power flow rate according to the ratio of the normal-time power generation amount to the previous year.
From another point of view, the present invention provides a power amount measurement that measures a used power amount that is a power amount received from a power grid and a reverse flow power amount that is a power amount supplied to the power grid. Means, a usage amount measuring means for measuring the usage amount of other energy, the used power amount and the reverse flow power amount measured by the power amount measuring means, and the other one measured by the usage amount measuring means An abnormality estimating system comprising: an abnormality estimating unit that estimates an abnormality of the photovoltaic power generator based on the amount of energy used.
Here, the abnormality estimating means is a case where the variation amount of the total amount of the used power amount and the converted power amount obtained by converting the used amount of the other energy into the power amount with respect to the previous year is within a predetermined range, Abnormal if the amount of use of the other energy increases by a predetermined reference energy ratio or more compared to the previous year and the reverse power flow amount is less than the predetermined reference reverse power flow ratio by the previous year. It may be estimated that
Further, the solar power generation device further comprises a power generation amount estimating means for estimating a normal power generation amount which is a power generation amount when the power generation amount is normal, and the abnormality estimating means further includes the power generation amount estimating means. It may be presumed to be abnormal if the normal power generation amount is equal to or higher than a predetermined reference power generation amount ratio with respect to the previous year.
Further, the abnormality estimating means may change the reference reverse flow rate according to the ratio of the normal-time power generation amount to the previous year.
In addition, from another point of view, the present invention measures, in a computer, the amount of power used, which is the amount of power supplied from the power grid, and the amount of reverse flow power, which is the amount of power supplied to the power grid. It is a program that realizes a function of estimating an abnormality of a photovoltaic power generation device based on the used power amount and the reverse flow power amount measured by a power amount measuring unit.
In addition, from another point of view, the present invention measures, in a computer, the amount of power used, which is the amount of power supplied from the power grid, and the amount of reverse flow power, which is the amount of power supplied to the power grid. Solar power based on the amount of the other energy used, which is measured by the amount of electricity used and the amount of the reverse power flow measured by the amount of electricity measuring device, and the amount of use of the other energy It is a program that realizes a function of estimating an abnormality of the power generation device.

ADVANTAGE OF THE INVENTION According to this invention, the abnormality estimation system which estimates the abnormality of a solar power generation device at low cost can be provided.

It is the figure which illustrated the schematic structure of the abnormality estimation system which concerns on 1st Embodiment. It is a block diagram which illustrated the hardware constitutions of the abnormality estimating device concerning a 1st embodiment. It is a block diagram which illustrated the functional composition of the abnormality estimating device concerning a 1st embodiment. 5 is a flowchart showing an abnormality estimation process performed by the abnormality estimation unit according to the first embodiment. It is the figure which illustrated the schematic structure of the abnormality estimation system which concerns on 2nd Embodiment. It is a flowchart which shows the abnormality estimation process which the abnormality estimation part which concerns on 2nd Embodiment performs.

Hereinafter, embodiments will be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings.
<First Embodiment>
FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating a schematic configuration of an abnormality estimation system 1 according to the first embodiment.
The abnormality estimation system 1 according to the first embodiment uses an electric power generated by an electric power supplier who supplies electric power and gas (hereinafter, sometimes referred to as an “operator B”) to generate electric power. It is a system that contributes to a service that estimates the occurrence of an abnormality in the power generation equipment of a seller (hereinafter, also referred to as “seller G”) and notifies the seller G of the abnormality.

The power seller G uses a solar power generation device (hereinafter, sometimes referred to as “PV”) 41 that generates power using sunlight, and a power usage device 42 that uses power such as a refrigerator or a washing machine. It is possible to exemplify being a natural person or a corporation provided with a gas using device 43 that uses gas such as a water heater. The power seller G uses the power using device 42 by using the power generated by the PV device 41 or the power supplied from the power grid 60. Further, the power seller G uses the gas using device 43 by using the city gas supplied from the city gas grid 70. Of the electric power generated by the PV device 41, the surplus electric power that is left unused by the power seller G is supplied (reverse tide) to the power grid 60 (power is sold).

The business operator B is a corporation including a power generation facility 51 for generating power and a gas production facility 52 for producing city gas.
The power generation facility 51 uses, for example, city gas or LPG gas as a fuel to generate power by thermal power generation. The electric power generated by the power generation facility 51 is supplied to the electric power grid 60.
The gas production facility 52 vaporizes, for example, LNG (liquefied natural gas), adjusts the amount of heat, and odorizes. The gas generated by the gas production facility 52 is supplied to the city gas grid 70 as city gas.

The abnormality estimation system 1 according to the first embodiment includes an abnormality estimation device 10 that estimates an abnormality of the PV device 41 owned by the power seller G. Further, the abnormality estimation system 1 has a known power amount measuring device 21 that has a function of measuring the amount of electric power and communicating with the abnormality estimating device 10, and a known device having a function of measuring a gas amount and communicating with the abnormality estimating device 10. Own gas amount measuring device 22 of.

The power amount measuring device 21 receives power from the power grid 60 (hereinafter, may be referred to as “used power amount Cp”) and power amount (reverse tide) supplied to the power grid 60 (reverse tide). Hereinafter, it may be referred to as "reverse power flow amount Sp".) is measured. Then, the power amount measuring device 21 transmits the measured power amount used and reverse power flow amount to the abnormality estimation device 10 together with the ID stored in advance in association with the power seller G as information for identifying the power supplier G. ..
The gas amount measuring device 22 measures the amount of city gas supplied from the city gas grid 70 (hereinafter, may be referred to as “used gas amount Cg”), and measures the measured gas used amount by the power seller G. It transmits to the abnormality estimation apparatus 10 with ID.

(Abnormality estimation device 10)
FIG. 2 is a block diagram illustrating the hardware configuration of the abnormality estimation device 10 according to the first embodiment.
The abnormality estimation device 10 has a computer capable of executing various types of information processing. The abnormality estimation device 10 controls the entire device, a storage unit 102 used for storing data and the like, a display unit 103 used for displaying an operation acceptance screen and images, and accepts a user's input operation. An operation unit 104 and a communication unit 105 used for communication with an external device are provided.

The control unit 101 includes a CPU (Central Processing Unit) 101a, a ROM (Read Only Memory) 101b, and a RAM (Random Access Memory) 101c. The ROM 101b stores a basic program (operation system) executed by the CPU 101a, various settings, and the like. The CPU 101a uses the RAM 101c as a work area and executes the application program read from the ROM 101b or the storage unit 102. The functions of the respective units of the abnormality estimation device 10 are realized by the CPU 101a executing the program.

The storage unit 102 can be exemplified as a storage device such as a semiconductor memory. The storage unit 102 may be an HDD (Hard Disk Drive).
The display unit 103 is a display device that displays a still image, a moving image, or the like. The display unit 103 can be exemplified as a liquid crystal display or an organic EL (Electro Luminescence) display.
The operation unit 104 is an input device that receives an operation from a user. The operation unit 104 can be exemplified as a button, a switch, a touch panel, and a keyboard.

The communication unit 105 can be exemplified as being a communication interface (communication I/F). The abnormality estimating device 10 can communicate with the power amount measuring device 21 and the gas amount measuring device 22 of the power seller G via the network. The network is not particularly limited as long as it is a communication network used for data communication between devices, and examples thereof include the Internet, WAN (Wide Area Network), and LAN (Local Area Network). The communication line used for data communication may be wired or wireless and may be used together. Further, a gateway device or a relay device such as a router may be used to connect the devices via a plurality of networks or communication lines.

The program executed by the CPU 101a is stored in a computer-readable recording medium such as a magnetic recording medium (magnetic tape, magnetic disk, etc.), optical recording medium (optical disk, etc.), magneto-optical recording medium, semiconductor memory, or the like. Can be provided at. Alternatively, the abnormality estimating device 10 may be downloaded using a communication means such as the Internet.

FIG. 3 is a block diagram illustrating the functional configuration of the abnormality estimation device 10 according to the first embodiment.
The abnormality estimating apparatus 10 includes a receiving unit 110 that receives information and the like sent from the power amount measuring device 21 and the gas amount measuring device 22 of the power seller G via the communication unit 105.
Further, the abnormality estimation device 10 includes a used power amount grasping unit 120 that grasps the used power amount Cp measured by the power amount measuring device 21 based on the information received by the reception unit 110.
Further, the abnormality estimation device 10 includes a reverse flow rate grasping unit 130 that grasps the reverse flow electricity amount Sp measured by the electricity amount measuring device 21 based on the information received by the receiving unit 110.
Further, the abnormality estimating apparatus 10 includes a used gas amount grasping unit 140 that grasps the used gas amount Cg measured by the gas amount measuring device 22 based on the information received by the receiving unit 110.
Further, the abnormality estimation device 10 uses at least the used power amount Cp grasped by the used electricity amount grasping unit 120 and the reverse power flow amount Sp grasped by the reverse power flow amount grasping unit 130 to determine whether the PV device 41 has an abnormality. The abnormality estimation unit 150 that estimates the occurrence is provided.
Further, the abnormality estimation device 10 includes a notification unit 160 that notifies the power seller G that the abnormality has occurred when the abnormality estimation unit 150 estimates that an abnormality has occurred.

When the receiving unit 110 receives the used power amount Cp transmitted from the power amount measuring device 21 of the power seller G, the used power amount grasping unit 120 grasps the used power amount Cp of the power seller G. At the same time, the used power amount Cp is stored in the storage unit 102 in association with the ID of the power seller G. The used power amount grasping section 120 may grasp and store the used power amount Cp each time it is sent from the power amount measuring device 21, or, for example, the used power amount Cp sent every 30 minutes. The cumulative value may be grasped and stored, for example, on a day or month basis.

When the receiving unit 110 receives the reverse power flow amount Sp transmitted from the power measuring device 21 of the power seller G, the reverse power flow rate grasping unit 130 determines the reverse power flow amount Sp of the power seller G. While grasping, the reverse power flow amount Sp is stored in the storage unit 102 in association with the ID of the power seller G. The reverse flow power grasping unit 130 may grasp and store the reverse flow power amount Sp each time it is sent from the power measuring device 21, or, for example, the reverse flow power amount sent every 30 minutes. The cumulative value of Sp may be grasped and stored, for example, on a day or month basis.

When the receiving unit 110 receives the used gas amount Cg sent from the gas amount measuring device 22 of the power seller G, the used gas amount grasping unit 140 grasps the used gas amount Cg of the power seller G. At the same time, the used gas amount Cg is stored in the storage unit 102 in association with the ID of the power seller G. The used gas amount grasping section 140 may grasp and store the used gas amount Cg each time it is sent from the gas amount measuring device 22, or, for example, the used gas amount Cg sent every 30 minutes. The cumulative value may be grasped and stored, for example, on a day or month basis.

Accordingly, the storage unit 102 stores the used power amount Cp, the reverse flow power amount Sp, and the used gas amount Cg in association with the ID of the power seller G. The storage unit 102 stores the used power amount Cp, the backward flow power amount Sp, and the used gas amount Cg for this month, for example, every 30 minutes, and also stores the used power amount Cp and the backward flow power amount before the previous month. It is possible to exemplify that the Sp and the used gas amount Cg are stored for several years (for example, five years) on a daily, weekly or monthly basis, for example. The information of the power seller G can be exemplified as being the address, telephone number, mail address, etc. of the power seller G.

When the abnormality estimation unit 150 estimates that the PV device 41 of the power seller G has an abnormality, the notification unit 160 notifies the power seller G that the PV device 41 may have an abnormality. To do. The notification means can be exemplified by sending an email to the power seller G. The means for notifying may be a telephone or a postcard.

The abnormality estimating unit 150 uses the used power amount Cp grasped by the used electricity amount grasping unit 120 and the reverse flow electricity amount Sp grasped by the reverse flow amount grasping unit 130 to detect that an abnormality has occurred in the PV device 41. presume. Hereinafter, the method in which the abnormality estimation unit 150 estimates the abnormality in the PV device 41 using the used power amount Cp and the reverse flow power amount Sp may be referred to as a “first estimation method”.

Here, in general, when the PV device 41 is normal, the amount of solar radiation in the same month each year is considered to be approximately the same, so the amount of power generation in the same month each year is considered to be approximately the same. On the other hand, the amount of electricity consumed in the same month each year is considered to be almost the same. This is because it is considered that the amount of air conditioners used will be approximately the same. Therefore, it is considered that the reverse flow electric power Sp of the same month is almost the same every year. In view of such matters, when the difference between the power consumption amount Cp of the previous month and the power consumption amount Cp of the same month of the previous year is within a predetermined range, the reverse power flow energy Sp of the last month is the reverse power flow energy of the same month of the previous year. When it is smaller than Sp by a predetermined ratio or more, it is considered that the power generation amount of the PV device 41 has decreased.

Therefore, when the difference between the power consumption amount Cpt of the last month and the power consumption amount Cpl of the same month of the previous year is within a predetermined range, the abnormality estimating unit 150 determines that the reverse power flow amount Spt of the last month has the reverse power flow of the same month of the previous year. When it is smaller than the power amount Spl by a predetermined reference reverse flow rate or more, it is estimated to be abnormal.
It is possible to exemplify that the predetermined range is within ±10% of the power consumption Cpl of the same month of the previous year. Moreover, it can be illustrated that the reference reverse flow rate is 50% (50%). In such a case, the power consumption difference ΔCp (=Cpt−Cpl), which is the value obtained by subtracting the power consumption Cpl of the same month of the previous year from the power consumption Cpt of the last month, is (the power consumption Cpl of the same month of the previous year)× In the case where (−0.1) or more and (power consumption Cpl in the same month of the previous year)×(0.1) or less, the reverse power flow energy Spt of the last month is (the reverse power flow energy Spl of the same month of the previous year)× When it is 0.5 or less (Spt≦(1-0.5 (reference reverse flow rate))×Spl), it is estimated that an abnormality has occurred in the PV apparatus 41.

The predetermined range is set within ±10% of the electric power consumption Cpl of the same month of the previous year because, for example, the number of personnel living in the house where the PV device 41 is installed has changed during the year. In consideration of the fact that the power consumption Cp changes by more than 10%. This is because, for example, when the number of people who live within a year increases, the power consumption Cp increases and the reverse flow power Sp may decrease. This is because in such a case, it is possible to prevent the abnormality estimating unit 150 from mistakenly estimating that an abnormality has occurred in the PV device 41. However, the predetermined range is not limited to within ±10% of the electric power consumption Cpl of the same month of the previous year. For example, the predetermined range may be within ±15% or ±20% of the power consumption Cpl of the same month of the previous year.

The reference reverse power flow rate is set to 50% in consideration of the difference in the amount of solar radiation. For example, the amount of solar radiation last month may be reduced by 50% from the amount of solar radiation in the same month of the previous year, and the amount of power generation may be reduced by 50%. This is because in such a case, it is possible to prevent the abnormality estimating unit 150 from mistakenly estimating that an abnormality has occurred in the PV device 41. However, the standard reverse flow rate is not limited to 50%. For example, it may be 40% or 60%.

As described above, the abnormality estimation system 1 measures the power usage Cp that is the power supplied from the power grid 60 and the reverse flow power Sp that is the power supplied to the power grid 60. An example of a power amount measuring device 21 as an example of the amount measuring device, and an example of an abnormality estimating device for estimating an abnormality of the PV device 41 based on the used power amount Cp and the reverse flow power amount Sp measured by the power amount measuring device 21. And the abnormality estimating unit 150.
According to this abnormality estimation system 1, since the abnormality is estimated using the values measured by the power amount measuring device 21 that measures both the used power amount Cp and the reverse power flow amount Sp, the power generation of the PV device 41, for example. The abnormality can be estimated at a lower cost than when the value measured by the device that measures the amount is used.

For example, when the power consumption amount difference ΔCp, which is the fluctuation amount of the power consumption amount Cp for the previous year, is within a predetermined range, the abnormality estimating unit 150 sets the reverse power flow amount Sp to be equal to or greater than the reference reverse power flow rate with respect to the previous year. If it is small (for example, (reverse power flow amount Spt of last month)≦(1-(reference reverse power flow rate))×(reverse power flow amount Spl of same month of the previous year), it is estimated to be abnormal. Thereby, the abnormality estimation unit 150 can accurately estimate the abnormality. In addition, in the above-described embodiment, as the variation amount of the used power amount Cp with respect to the previous year, the used power amount difference ΔCp, which is the difference between the used power amount Cpt of the last month and the used power amount Cpl of the same month of the previous year, is used for one month. The power consumption Cp (in units of months) of is used. Further, in determining whether or not the reverse power flow amount Sp is less than the reference reverse power flow rate by the previous year, the reverse power flow amount Spt of the previous month and the reverse power flow amount Spl of the same month of the previous year are used to determine the value for one month. The reverse power flow amount Sp (monthly) is used. However, the embodiment is not limited to this. For example, the electric energy for one week, ten days, half a month, or two months may be used. Further, even when the electric energy for one month is used, for example, the average value of the electric energy for two months may be used.

The processing performed by the abnormality estimation device 10 described above can be realized by cooperation between software and hardware resources. In this case, the CPU 101a inside the control computer provided in the abnormality estimation device 10 executes a program that realizes each function of the abnormality estimation device 10 to realize each of these functions. For example, a non-transitory computer-readable recording medium in which the program is recorded is provided to the abnormality estimation device 10, and the CPU 101a of the abnormality estimation device 10 reads the program stored in the recording medium. In this case, the program itself read from the recording medium realizes the functions of the above-described embodiments, and the program itself and the recording medium recording the program constitute the present invention.

The programs that realize the functions of the abnormality estimation device 10 according to the first embodiment are the used power amount Cp, which is the amount of power supplied from the power grid 60 to the computer, and the amount of power supplied to the power grid 60. A function of estimating an abnormality of a photovoltaic power generation device (for example, PV device 41) is realized based on the used power amount Cp and the reverse flow power amount Sp measured by the power amount measuring device 21 that measures the reverse flow power amount Sp. Let
As a recording medium for supplying such a program, for example, a flexible disk, a CD-ROM, a DVD-ROM, a hard disk, an optical disk, a magneto-optical disk, a CD-R, a magnetic tape, a non-volatile memory card, or a ROM. It can be illustrated.

<Modification>
The abnormality estimating unit 150 may estimate the abnormality by also considering the usage status of other energy. The other energy can be exemplified by city gas.
For example, the abnormality estimation unit 150 uses the used power amount Cp grasped by the used electricity amount grasping unit 120, the reverse flow power amount Sp grasped by the reverse flow amount grasping unit 130, and the used gas grasped by the used gas amount grasping unit 140. The amount Cg may be used to estimate that an abnormality has occurred in the PV device 41. Hereinafter, a method in which the abnormality estimating unit 150 estimates that an abnormality has occurred in the PV device 41 using the used power amount Cp, the reverse flow power amount Sp, and the used gas amount Cg is referred to as a “second estimation method”. There are cases.

Here, for example, when the floor heating using gas is introduced into the house in which the PV device 41 is installed within one year, in order to heat the room in the same manner as the same month of the previous year, instead of the air conditioner using electric power, It is possible to use underfloor heating. In such a case, the used power amount Cp decreases while the used gas amount Cg increases. Therefore, there is a possibility that the difference ΔCp in power consumption between the power consumption Cpt in the last month and the power consumption Cpl in the same month of the previous year may deviate from the predetermined range. Then, when the used power amount difference ΔCp is out of the predetermined range, it becomes difficult to estimate the abnormality of the PV device 41 by the above-described first estimation method.
On the other hand, if the amount Cg of used gas increases from the same month of the previous year due to the introduction of floor heating using gas, for example, it is considered that the amount Cp of electric power used will decrease within one year. Be done.

In view of the above matters, the abnormality estimating unit 150 estimates the abnormality of the PV device 41 by using the used gas amount Cg. When using the used gas amount Cg, the abnormality estimation unit 150 converts the heat generated using the used gas amount Cg into the amount of electric power required to generate using the electric power. Hereinafter, a value obtained by converting the used gas amount Cg into an electric power amount may be referred to as a “gas converted electric power amount Ccg”.

When the room is warmed in the same manner last month and the same month last year, it is considered that the total amount of the power consumption Cp and the gas-converted power amount Ccg, which will be described later, are substantially the same between the last month and the same month of the previous year. ..

Then, the abnormality estimation unit 150 calculates the total amount Ct (=Cpt+Ccgt) of the power consumption amount Cpt of the last month and the gas conversion power amount Ccgt of the last month, the power consumption amount Cpl of the same month of the previous year, and the gas conversion power amount of the same month of the previous year. The total amount difference ΔC, which is the difference from the total amount Cl (=Cpl+Ccgl) with Ccgl, is within a predetermined range, and the used gas amount Cgt of the last month is more than a predetermined reference gas ratio than the used gas amount Cgl of the same month of the previous year. If the reverse flow power amount Spt in the last month is smaller than the reverse flow power amount Spl in the same month of the previous year by the reference reverse power flow rate or more, it is estimated to be abnormal.
It is possible to exemplify that the predetermined range is within ±10% of the total amount Cl of the same month of the previous year. However, it is not limited to 10%.
Moreover, it can be illustrated that the reference gas ratio is 20% (20%). However, it is not limited to 20%.
Moreover, it can be illustrated that the reference reverse flow rate is 50% (50%). However, it is not limited to 50%. Further, the reference reverse flow rate may be changed according to the reference gas rate. For example, when the reference gas ratio is 30%, the reference reverse power flow ratio may be set to 40%, and the reference reverse power flow ratio may be decreased to less than 50% as the reference gas ratio is higher than 20%. ..
Since the abnormality estimation unit 150 estimates the abnormality using the second estimation method, the abnormality of the PV device 41 can be estimated with higher accuracy.

FIG. 4 is a flowchart showing an abnormality estimating process performed by the abnormality estimating unit 150 according to the first embodiment. The abnormality estimation unit 150 repeatedly executes this abnormality estimation process at preset constant time intervals (for example, 1 minute).
The abnormality estimating unit 150 determines whether or not a predetermined time has come (S401). When the predetermined time has come (Yes in S401), the abnormality estimation unit 150 grasps the power consumption Gpt of the power seller G for the last month and the power consumption Cpl for the same month of the previous year stored in the storage unit 102. (S402). After that, the abnormality estimation unit 150 grasps the used gas amount Cgt of the power seller G of the previous month and the used gas amount Cgl of the same month of the previous year stored in the storage unit 102 (S403). Then, the abnormality estimating unit 150 calculates the gas-converted electric energy Ccgt of the last month and the gas-converted electric energy Ccgl of the same month of the previous year, respectively, using the used gas amount Cgt of the last month and the used gas amount Cgl of the same month of the previous year ( S404).

After that, the abnormality estimation unit 150 calculates the total amount Ct of the power consumption amount Cpt of the last month and the gas conversion power amount Ccgt of the last month, and the total amount Cl of the power consumption amount Cpl of the same month of the previous year and the gas conversion power amount Ccgl of the same month of the previous year. It is determined whether or not the total amount difference ΔC between and is within a predetermined range (S405). If the total amount difference ΔC is not within the predetermined range (No in S405), this process ends.
On the other hand, when the total amount difference ΔC is within the predetermined range (Yes in S405), the abnormality estimating unit 150 determines whether or not the used gas amount Cgt of the last month has increased by more than the reference gas ratio from the used gas amount Cgl of the same month of the previous year. Is determined (S406). When the used gas amount Cgt of the last month has not increased by more than the reference gas ratio from the used gas amount Cgl of the same month of the previous year (No in S406), this processing ends.

On the other hand, when the amount of used gas Cgt of the previous month has increased by the reference gas ratio or more from the amount of used gas Cgl of the same month of the previous year (Yes in S406), the abnormality estimation unit 150 stores the electricity sales person G's stored in the storage unit 102. , The reverse flow power amount Spt of the previous month and the reverse flow power amount Spl of the same month of the previous year are grasped (S407). Then, the abnormality estimating unit 150 determines whether or not the backward flow power amount Spt of the previous month is less than the backward flow power amount Spl of the same month of the previous year by the reference reverse flow rate or more (S408). Then, when the reverse flow power amount Spt of the previous month is smaller than the reverse flow power amount Spl of the same month of the previous year by the reference reverse flow rate ratio or more (Yes in S408), it is estimated that the PV device 41 is abnormal (S409). On the other hand, when the backward flow power amount Spt of the previous month is not less than the backward flow power amount Spl of the same month of the previous year by the reference reverse flow rate ratio or more (No in S408), it is determined that no abnormality has occurred in the PV device 41, and this processing ends.

In this way, the abnormality estimation unit 150 estimates that an abnormality has occurred in the PV device 41 using the used power amount Cp, the reverse flow power amount Sp, and the used gas amount Cg. Then, when the abnormality estimating unit 150 estimates that an abnormality has occurred in the PV device 41 of the power seller G, the notification unit 160 indicates that there is a possibility that the PV device 41 has an abnormality. To notify.

Note that the predetermined time can be exemplified as a predetermined time on a predetermined day of each month, for example, the first day of every month at midnight. That is, the abnormality estimation unit 150 performs the above-described abnormality estimation processing only once a month, and the power consumption Cpt, the gas usage Cgt, and the reverse power flow in the month (last month) before the month in which this abnormality estimation processing is performed. The abnormality may be estimated using the electric energy Spt. The abnormality estimation unit 150 performs this abnormality estimation processing at the beginning of the month to notify the power seller G that the abnormality of the PV device 41 can be estimated early and there is a possibility that the abnormality occurs early. be able to.

As described above, the abnormality estimation system 1 uses the power amount measuring device 21 that measures the power consumption amount Cp and the reverse flow power amount Sp, and the consumption amount that measures the consumption amount of city gas as another example of energy. The abnormality estimating unit 150 includes a gas amount measuring device 22 as an example of a measuring unit, and the abnormality estimating unit 150 also considers the used gas amount Cg, which is the amount of city gas used measured by the gas amount measuring device 22, to detect an abnormality in the PV device 41. To estimate. Thereby, the abnormality can be estimated with higher accuracy. The other energy is not limited to city gas. For example, it may be propane gas. In addition to gas, charcoal or the like may be used.

For example, the abnormality estimating unit 150 determines that the total amount difference ΔC as an example of the variation amount of the total amount Ct of the used power amount Cp and the gas-converted power amount Ccg obtained by converting the used gas amount Cg into the power amount is within a predetermined range. In the case where the amount of used gas Cg increases by more than a reference gas ratio as an example of a predetermined reference energy ratio with respect to the previous year, and the reverse flow power amount Sp is the reference reverse of the previous year. If it is less than the tidal current ratio, it is assumed to be abnormal.
Accordingly, the abnormality estimation unit 150 can estimate the abnormality of the PV device 41 with higher accuracy.

Further, the program that realizes the function of the abnormality estimation device 10 causes the computer to use the electric power amount Cp and the reverse flow electric power amount Sp measured by the electric energy measuring device 21, and the used gas amount Cg measured by the gas amount measuring device 22. The function of estimating the abnormality of the solar power generation device (for example, the PV device 41) is realized based on the above.

<Second Embodiment>
FIG. 5: is the figure which illustrated the schematic structure of the abnormality estimation system 2 which concerns on 2nd Embodiment.
The abnormality estimation system 2 according to the second embodiment is different from the abnormality estimation system 1 according to the first embodiment in an abnormality estimation device 20 corresponding to the abnormality estimation device 10. Hereinafter, differences from the abnormality estimation system 1 according to the first embodiment will be described. In the abnormality estimation system 1 according to the first embodiment and the abnormality estimation system 2 according to the second embodiment, those having the same function are denoted by the same reference numerals, and detailed description thereof will be omitted.

The abnormality estimation device 20 according to the second embodiment includes a power generation amount estimation unit 270 that estimates the power generation amount of the PV device 41 owned by the power seller G, and a power generation amount of the PV device 41 estimated by the power generation amount estimation unit 270. The abnormality estimation unit 250 that estimates the abnormality of the PV apparatus 41 is also provided.

The power generation amount estimation unit 270 estimates the power generation amount of the PV device 41 by using the power generation amount of the PV device 800 other than the PV device 41 of the power seller G. It can be illustrated that the PV device 800 is a device installed within a predetermined range determined in advance from the point where the PV device 41 is installed. It can be illustrated that the predetermined range is, for example, a range smaller than the range in which the same weather observation point is selected in the solar radiation database browsing system provided by NEDO. More specifically, it can be illustrated that the radius is within 5 km from the point where the PV device 41 is installed, and preferably within 1 km from the point where the PV device 41 is installed.

It can be illustrated that the power generation amount of the PV device 800 is measured by a known power amount measuring device 810 having a function of measuring the power generation amount of the PV device 800 and communicating with the abnormality estimation device 20.
It can be illustrated that the PV device 800 and the electric energy measuring device 810 are installed in a house owned by an individual or a facility owned by the business operator B.

The power generation amount estimation unit 270 grasps the power generation amount of the PV device 800 measured by the power amount measurement device 810 based on the information received by the reception unit 110 via the communication unit 105, and also determines the ID of the power seller G. The power generation amount of the PV device 800 is stored in the storage unit 102 in association with each other. The power generation amount estimation unit 270 may grasp and store the power generation amount of the PV device 800 each time it is sent from the power amount measuring device 810, or, for example, accumulates the power generation amount sent every 30 minutes. The value may be grasped and stored, for example, on a day or month basis.

In addition, the power generation amount estimation unit 270 estimates the power generation amount of the PV device 800 as the power generation amount when the PV device 41 is normal (hereinafter, may be referred to as “normal time power generation amount Eg”). The power generation amount estimation unit 270 also generates a value obtained by multiplying the power generation amount of the PV device 800 by a coefficient based on the difference in power generation efficiency between the PV device 41 and the PV device 800 during normal power generation of the PV device 41. It may be estimated as the amount Eg.

The abnormality estimation unit 250 according to the second embodiment, in addition to the first estimation method of the abnormality estimation unit 150 according to the first embodiment, includes the normal power generation amount Eg of the PV device 41 estimated by the power generation amount estimation unit 270. Is also taken into consideration to estimate the abnormality of the PV device 41.
In addition to the estimation using the estimation method of the abnormality estimation unit 150, the abnormality estimation unit 250 estimates that the power generation amount estimation unit 270 estimates the normal-time power generation amount Egt of the PV device 41 in the previous month, which is the normal power generation amount in the same month of the previous year. It is presumed to be abnormal when the amount is equal to or more than a predetermined reference power generation rate with respect to the amount Egl. It can be illustrated that the reference power generation rate is 100%. This is because when the normal power generation amount Egt of the last month is smaller than the normal power generation amount Egl of the same month of the previous year, it is because the solar radiation amount is small, and the PV device 41 may not be abnormal.

More specifically, the abnormality estimating unit 250 determines that the difference between the power consumption amount Cpt of the last month and the power consumption amount Cpl of the same month of the previous year is within a predetermined range, and the reverse flow power amount Spt of the last month is the same as that of the same month of the previous year. In the case where the reverse power flow rate Spl is smaller than the reference reverse power flow rate by the reference power flow rate or more, the normal power generation amount Egt of the PV device 41 last month estimated by the power generation amount estimation unit 270 is the reference with respect to the normal power generation amount Egl of the same month of the previous year. It is presumed to be abnormal when the power generation ratio is equal to or higher than the ratio. For example, if the standard power generation rate is 100%, it is estimated to be abnormal when the normal power generation amount Egt of the PV device 41 last month estimated by the power generation amount estimation unit 270 is equal to or more than the normal power generation amount Egl of the same month of the previous year. To do.

Accordingly, the abnormality estimation system 2 can estimate the abnormality of the PV device 41 with higher accuracy. Further, since the abnormality estimation system 2 does not need to include a device that directly measures the power generation amount of the PV device 41 owned by the power seller G, the abnormality of the PV device 41 can be estimated at low cost. Further, in the above-described embodiment, only the estimation of the abnormality of the PV device 41 owned by the power seller G is described. However, for example, from the point where the PV device 800 and the power amount measuring device 810 are installed, Abnormalities of other PV devices installed within a radius of 5 km can be estimated using the same method.

<Modification>
The abnormality estimation unit 250 according to the second embodiment takes into account the power generation amount of the PV device 41 estimated by the power generation amount estimation unit 270 in addition to the second estimation method of the abnormality estimation unit 150 according to the first embodiment. Then, the abnormality of the PV device 41 may be estimated.
In other words, the abnormality estimating unit 250 calculates the total amount Ct of the power consumption amount Cpt of the last month and the gas conversion power amount Ccgt of the last month, and the total amount Cl of the power consumption amount Cpl of the same month of the previous year and the gas conversion power amount Ccgl of the same month of the previous year. And the total amount difference ΔC, which is the difference between the two, is within a predetermined range, and the used gas amount Cgt of the previous month increases by more than the reference gas ratio from the used gas amount Cgl of the same month of the previous year, and the reverse of the previous month. When the power flow amount Spt is less than the reverse flow power amount Spl in the same month of the previous year by the reference reverse power flow rate or more, and the normal power generation amount of the PV device 41 estimated by the power generation amount estimation unit 270 is the normal power generation amount in the same month last year. On the other hand, it is presumed to be abnormal when the power generation rate exceeds the standard.
Thereby, the abnormality of the PV device 41 can be estimated with higher accuracy.

FIG. 6 is a flowchart showing the abnormality estimating process performed by the abnormality estimating unit 250 according to the second embodiment. The abnormality estimation unit 250 repeatedly executes this abnormality estimation process at preset constant time intervals (for example, 1 minute). Since the processing of S601 to S608 shown in FIG. 6 is the same as the processing of S401 to S408 described with reference to FIG. 4, detailed description thereof will be omitted.

When it is determined in S608 that the backward flow power amount Spt of the previous month is less than the backward flow power amount Spl of the same month of the previous year by the reference reverse flow rate ratio or more (Yes in S608), the abnormality estimating unit 250 stores the result in the storage unit 102. The normal power generation amount Egt of the last month and the normal power generation amount Egl of the same month of the previous year that have been performed are grasped (S609). Then, the abnormality estimating unit 250 determines whether or not the normal power generation amount Egt of the last month is equal to or higher than the reference power generation amount ratio with respect to the normal power generation amount Egl of the same month of the previous year (S610). When the normal power generation amount Egt of the last month is equal to or higher than the reference power generation amount ratio with respect to the normal power generation amount Egl of the same month of the previous year (Yes in S610), it is estimated that the PV device 41 has an abnormality (S611). .. On the other hand, when the normal power generation amount Egt of the last month is less than the reference power generation amount ratio with respect to the normal power generation amount Egl of the same month of the previous year (No in S610), it is determined that no abnormality has occurred in the PV device 41, and this processing ends. ..

In this way, the abnormality estimating unit 250 estimates that an abnormality has occurred in the PV device 41 by using the used power amount Cp, the reverse flow power amount Sp, the used gas amount Cg, and the normal power generation amount Eg. Then, when the abnormality estimation unit 250 estimates that the PV device 41 of the power seller G has an abnormality, the notification unit 160 informs the power seller G that the PV device 41 may have an abnormality. To notify.

As described above, the abnormality estimation system 2 includes the power amount measuring device 21 that measures the used power amount Cp and the reverse flow power amount Sp, the gas amount measuring device 22 that measures the used amount of city gas, and the PV device. A power amount measuring device 810 that measures the amount of power generation of the PV device 800 different from 41, and power generation as an example of a power generation amount estimation unit that estimates the normal-time power generation amount Eg that is the power generation amount when the PV device 41 is normal. And an amount estimation unit 270. Then, the abnormality estimating unit 250 estimates the abnormality by at least adding the normal power generation amount Eg estimated by the power generation estimating unit 270 to the used power amount Cp and the reverse flow power amount Sp.
According to the abnormality estimation system 2, the abnormality of the PV device 41 can be estimated with higher accuracy. Further, according to the abnormality estimation system 2, it is not necessary to provide a device for directly measuring the power generation amount of the PV device 41 owned by the power seller G, so that the abnormality of the PV device 41 can be estimated at low cost. ..

In the second embodiment described above, the reference power generation rate is 100%, but the reference power generation rate is not limited to 100%. For example, the reference power generation rate may be 90%. In such a case, the abnormality estimation unit 250 estimates that the normal-time power generation amount Egt of the previous month is 90% or more (Egt≧0.9×Egl) of the normal-time power generation amount Egl of the same month of the previous year (Egt≧0.9×Egl). ..

Further, the abnormality estimating unit 250 may change the reference reverse power flow rate according to the ratio (Egt/Egl) of the normal power generation amount Egt of the last month and the normal power generation amount Egl of the same month of the previous year. For example, when the normal power generation amount Egt of the previous month is 90% (Egt=0.9×Egl) of the normal power generation amount Egl of the same month of the previous year, the abnormality estimating unit 250 sets the reference reverse power flow rate to 70%. Is also good. In such a case, the abnormality estimating unit 250 determines that the total amount difference ΔC is within the predetermined range, and the used gas amount Cgt of the previous month is increased by the reference gas ratio or more from the used gas amount Cgl of the same month of the previous year, and When the normal power generation amount Egt of the last month is more than the standard power generation amount ratio with respect to the normal power generation amount Egl of the same month last year, the reverse power flow energy Spt of the last month is 70% or more than the reverse power flow energy Spl of the same month of the previous year. If the number is small (Spt≦(1-0.7)×Spl), it may be estimated as abnormal. Further, the larger the ratio (Egt/Egl) of the normal power generation amount Egt of the last month and the normal power generation amount Egl of the same month of the previous year, the smaller the reference reverse power flow ratio may be. For example, the abnormality estimating unit 250 may set the reference reverse power flow rate to 10% when the normal power generation amount Egt of the previous month is 1.1 times the normal power generation amount Egl of the same month of the previous year.

Further, the power generation amount estimation unit 270 is not limited to estimating the power generation amount of the PV device 41 based on the power generation amount of the PV device 800 different from the PV device 41. For example, the power generation amount estimation unit 270 may estimate the power generation amount of the PV device 41 based on the amount of solar radiation measured at the meteorological observation point closest to the house in which the PV device 41 is installed.

1, 2... Abnormality estimation system, 10... Abnormality estimation device, 21... Electric energy measuring device, 22... Gas amount measuring device, 41... PV device, 60... Electric power grid, 70... City gas grid, 150... Abnormality estimation unit

Claims (10)

A power amount measuring means for measuring the used power amount which is the power amount supplied from the power grid and the reverse flow power amount which is the power amount supplied to the power grid,
An abnormality estimating unit that estimates the abnormality of the solar power generation device based on the used electric energy and the reverse flow electric energy measured by the electric energy measuring unit,
An anomaly estimation system comprising: The abnormality estimating means is an abnormality when the amount of change in the amount of electric power used with respect to the previous year is within a predetermined range, and when the amount of reverse flow power is less than a predetermined reference reverse flow rate with respect to the previous year. The abnormality estimation system according to claim 1, which estimates the abnormality. The solar power generation device further has a power generation amount estimating means for estimating a normal power generation amount which is a power generation amount when the solar power generation device is normal,
The abnormality according to claim 2, wherein the abnormality estimating unit further estimates an abnormality when the normal power generation amount estimated by the power generation amount estimating unit is equal to or higher than a predetermined reference power generation amount ratio with respect to the previous year. Estimation system. The abnormality estimating system according to claim 3, wherein the abnormality estimating unit changes the reference reverse power flow rate according to a rate of the normal-time power generation amount with respect to the previous year. A power amount measuring means for measuring the used power amount which is the power amount supplied from the power grid and the reverse flow power amount which is the power amount supplied to the power grid,
Usage measuring means for measuring the usage of other energy,
Anomaly estimation for estimating an abnormality of the photovoltaic power generation device based on the used power amount and the reverse flow power amount measured by the power amount measuring unit, and the usage amount of the other energy measured by the usage amount measuring unit Means and
An anomaly estimation system comprising: The abnormality estimating means is a case where the variation amount of the total amount of the used power amount and the converted power amount obtained by converting the used amount of the other energy into the power amount with respect to the previous year is within a predetermined range. When the amount of energy used has increased by a predetermined reference energy ratio or more compared to the previous year and the reverse power flow amount is less than the predetermined reference reverse power flow ratio by the previous year, it is estimated to be abnormal. The abnormality estimation system according to claim 5. The solar power generation device further has a power generation amount estimating means for estimating a normal power generation amount which is a power generation amount when the solar power generation device is normal,
The abnormality according to claim 6, wherein the abnormality estimating unit further estimates that the abnormality is generated when the normal-time power generation amount estimated by the power generation amount estimating unit is equal to or more than a predetermined reference power generation amount ratio with respect to the previous year. Estimation system. The abnormality estimating system according to claim 7, wherein the abnormality estimating unit changes the reference reverse power flow rate according to a ratio of the normal-time power generation amount to the previous year. On the computer,
The used power amount and the reverse power flow measured by the power amount measuring means for measuring the used power amount which is the power amount supplied from the power grid and the reverse power flow power amount which is the power amount supplied to the power grid. A function to estimate the abnormality of the photovoltaic power generator based on the amount of electric power,
A program that realizes. On the computer,
The used power amount and the reverse power flow measured by the power amount measuring unit that measures the used power amount that is the power amount supplied from the power grid and the reverse power flow power amount that is the power amount supplied to the power grid. Electric power amount, and a function of estimating an abnormality of the photovoltaic power generation device based on the amount of use of the other energy measured by the amount of use measuring means for measuring the amount of use of the other energy,
A program that realizes.