JP2020065368A - Power generation plan determination system, power generation plan determination method, and program - Google Patents

Abstract

To provide a power generation plan determination system, a power generation plan determination method, and a program which can determine a power generation plan which can secure transient stability even when capacity of a power generator decreases.SOLUTION: A power generation plan determination system of an embodiment has: a power generation demand prediction value determination part; an initial power generation plan determination part; an output fluctuation pattern creation part; and an optimal power generation plan determination part. The power generation demand prediction value determination part determines a power generation demand prediction value. The initial power generation plan determination part determines an initial power generation plan of a power generator based on the power generation demand prediction value. The output fluctuation pattern creation part creates a plurality of output fluctuation patterns of an output prediction value. The optimal power generation plan determination part derives transient stability of a power system facility which is predicted after a supposed accident based on information regarding the supposed accident, and the plurality of output fluctuation patterns, and determines the optimal power generation plan which can maintain the transient stability in the output fluctuation patterns based on the derived transient stability.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

  The embodiment of the present invention relates to a power generation plan determination system, a power generation plan determination method, and a program.

  In the future, large-scale introduction of renewable energy power sources is expected in the medium to long term. When the generator capacity decreases due to the increase in renewable energy power sources, the stability against changes in tidal current tends to deteriorate. On the other hand, maintaining the capacity of the generator can maintain stability against changes in tidal current, but increases cost. Therefore, there is a trade-off between stability against changes in tidal current and cost.

  There is known a technique for formulating a power generation plan with the power flow and voltage of the system calculated based on the power flow calculation as constraints, in consideration of the uncertainty of the output of the renewable energy power source. In this technique, the transient stability when the capacity of the generator is decreased has not been sufficiently studied.

JP, 2016-194849, A JP, 2016-208826, A

  The problem to be solved by the present invention is to provide a power generation plan determination system, a power generation plan determination method, and a program capable of determining a power generation plan capable of ensuring transient stability even when the capacity of a generator is reduced. Is.

  The power generation plan determination system according to the embodiment includes a power generation demand forecast value determination unit, an initial power generation plan determination unit, an output fluctuation pattern generation unit, and an optimum power generation plan determination unit. The power generation demand forecast value determination unit is a demand forecast value in a power system facility in which a plurality of renewable energy power sources and a plurality of generators are connected, and an output that is a forecast value of the amount of power output by the renewable energy power source. Based on the predicted value, a power generation demand predicted value that is a predicted value of the amount of electric power required for the generator is determined. The initial power generation plan determination unit determines an initial power generation plan for the generator based on the power generation demand prediction value determined by the power generation demand prediction value determination unit. The output fluctuation pattern creation unit creates a plurality of output fluctuation patterns of the output predicted value based on the plurality of fluctuation output predicted values having different occurrence probabilities from the output predicted value. The optimum power generation plan determining unit is configured to predict the power system facility after the assumed accident based on information about the expected accident and the plurality of output fluctuation patterns created by the output fluctuation pattern creating unit. The transient generation stability is derived, and the optimum power generation plan that can maintain the transient stability in the output fluctuation pattern is determined based on the derived transient stability.

The figure which shows an example of a structure of the power generation plan determination system 10 of embodiment. The figure which shows the example of the probability distribution of the renewable energy output prediction of embodiment. The figure which shows an example of the renewable energy output prediction information 13A of embodiment. The figure which shows an example of the generator information 13C of embodiment. The figure which shows an example of the content of the assumed accident case information 13E of embodiment. The figure which shows an example of the content of node data. The figure which shows an example of the content of branch data. The figure which shows an example of the renewable energy output prediction value in the unit time zone of a day. The figure which shows an example of the demand forecast value in the unit time zone of a day. The figure which shows an example of the power generation demand forecast value in the unit time zone of a day. The flowchart which shows an example of the flow of the whole process in the power generation plan determination system 10. The flowchart which shows an example of the flow of a process in the optimal power generation plan determination part 14E. The flowchart which shows an example of the flow of a process in the optimal power generation plan determination part 14E. The figure which shows an example of a generator plan output. The figure which shows an example of a structure of 10 A of electric power generation plan determination systems of 2nd Embodiment. The flowchart which shows the other example of the flow of the whole process in the power generation plan determination system 10. The flowchart which shows an example of the flow of a process in the optimal adjustment power plan determination part 14J. The flowchart which shows an example of the flow of a process in the optimal adjustment power plan determination part 14J.

  Hereinafter, a power generation plan determination system, a power generation plan determination method, and a program according to embodiments will be described with reference to the drawings.

  First, the first embodiment will be described. FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating an example of the configuration of a power generation plan determination system 10 according to the first embodiment. In the electric power system 21, for example, a plurality of generators 22 (22a, 22b, ...), a plurality of renewable energy power sources 23 (23a, 23b, 23c, 23d, ...), and a plurality of consumers 24 (24a, …) And are connected. The generator 22 is, for example, a large-scale generator including thermal power generation, hydraulic power generation, nuclear power generation, and the like. The renewable energy power source 23 is, for example, a power generation facility that uses renewable energy such as sunlight and wind power. The renewable energy power source 23 is a power source derived from renewable energy including small-scale power generation such as solar power generation and wind power generation to large-scale power generation, and can be constructed in various scales. The individual renewable energy power sources 23 and the consumers 24 may be grouped by region, for example, group 31 (31a, 31b, 31c) of consumers and renewable energy by region. The pattern of the set 31 may be set arbitrarily and can be set in various patterns without being limited to the illustration.

  In addition, the power system 21 serves as a device for cooperating with the power generation plan determination system 10, and includes a plurality of measuring devices 25 (25-1, 25-2, ..., 25-m) and a plurality of control terminal devices 26. (26-1, 26-2, ..., 26-m). m is an arbitrary natural number.

  The measuring device 25 measures the system state at each place (branch or node) included in the power system 21, and provides the power generation plan determination system 10 with information indicating the measured system state (hereinafter, referred to as system state information). Send. The system state includes, for example, voltage, phase, power flow, transformer load, generator output, etc. at each branch or each node. The tidal current is an index indicating the magnitude of electricity flow at various places in a state where electricity is flowing, and is represented by the magnitude of active power, reactive power, or the like, for example.

  The control terminal device 26 controls the system control device and the generator 22 (output amount, etc.), suppresses the output of the renewable energy power source 23, and the like based on the control command received from the power generation plan determination system 10. The system control device includes, for example, a phase advancing capacitor, a shunt reactor, an SVC (Static Var Compensator), and the like.

  Next, the power generation plan determination system 10 will be described. The power generation plan determination system 10 is, for example, a system that determines a power generation plan of the generator 22 included in the power system 21. The power generation plan determined by the power generation plan determination system 10 may include the renewable energy power source 23, the customer 24, and the set 31 of the renewable energy for each region other than the generator 22 as a planning target. The power generation plan determination system 10 maintains transient stability based on the information acquired by the measuring device 25 and the like, considering uncertain fluctuations in the renewable energy output in future time (unit time of power generation plan). While determining the power generation plan that minimizes the power generation cost.

  The power generation plan determination system 10 determines the power generation plan of the generator 22 for each planning unit time, for example. The planned unit time is, for example, 30 minutes or 1 hour, but is not limited to this. The power generation plan is, for example, one day (24 × 2 = 48 frames) in 30-minute units or one week (24 × 7 = 168 frames) in one-hour units, but is not limited to this. Not done. Further, the power generation plan determination system 10 may update (replan) the power generation plan once determined by reflecting the latest information. For example, a weekly plan for one week is prepared in advance, the value of the weekly plan is updated using the latest information such as the forecast value of the next day on the previous day (previous day plan), and the state assumed in the previous day plan such as the forecast value on the day If there is a discrepancy with the above, it is possible to re-plan such as changing the previous day's plan on the same day (the same day plan).

  The power generation plan determination system 10 includes, for example, an input unit 11, a display unit 12, a storage unit 13, and a processing unit 14. The power generation plan determination system 10 includes one or more processors. The power generation plan determination system 10 may be a single computer device or may be a computer device distributed in two or more. For example, only the input unit 11 and the display unit 12 are realized by a terminal device such as a PC, and the storage unit 13 and the processing unit 14 are realized by a server device connected to the terminal device via a network. It may be.

  The input unit 11 includes, for example, some or all of various keys, buttons, dial switches, a mouse, and a touch panel integrally formed with the display unit 12. Further, the input unit 11 may be a connection unit that is electrically connected to an external device. The display unit 12 is, for example, an LCD (Liquid Crystal Display) or an organic EL (Electroluminescence) display device.

  The storage unit 13 is, for example, a RAM (Random Access Memory), a ROM (Read Only Memory), a flash memory such as an SSD, an HDD, or the like. The storage unit 13 stores information such as renewable energy output prediction information 13A, demand prediction information 13B, generator information 13C, power generation plan information 13D, expected accident case information 13E, and grid state information 13F. The storage unit 13 may be an external storage device such as a NAS (Network Attached Storage) that can be accessed by the power generation plan determination system 10 via a network.

  The renewable energy output prediction information 13A is information about a predicted value predicted as the output of the renewable energy power source 23 in the future (for example, 30 minutes or 60 minutes after the present time). In addition, the renewable energy power source 23 has an uncertainty that its output fluctuates under the influence of weather and the like. The renewable energy output prediction information 13A also includes uncertainty information represented by, for example, a probability distribution in consideration of uncertainty.

  FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating an example of a probability distribution of renewable energy output prediction according to the embodiment. In the graph of FIG. 2, the vertical axis represents the probability of occurrence and the horizontal axis represents the renewable energy output. As shown in FIG. 2, the renewable energy output is defined as having a certain probability distribution because the output fluctuates. Uncertainty in renewable energy output is represented, for example, by defining that the output range is within ± σ (σ: standard deviation) (68.27%) of the predicted value.

  It should be noted that this range can be arbitrarily determined. For example, the range of the renewable energy output may be defined to be within ± 2σ or ± 3σ of the predicted value, or an index other than the standard deviation, for example, The capacity ratio of the renewable energy power source 23 may be used to define the inside of ± 10% of the predicted value. The renewable energy output prediction information 13A including such uncertainty is stored in the storage unit 13 for each renewable energy power source 23 or each regional set 31.

  FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an example of the renewable energy output prediction information 13A of the embodiment. As shown in FIG. 3, in this renewable energy output prediction information 13A, a renewable energy output predicted value and a value corresponding to ± σ in the probability distribution are given for each area (regional set 31). By using such renewable energy output prediction information 13A, the power generation plan determination system 10 can generate a future power system for a plurality of combination patterns of system states including renewable energy outputs that fluctuate due to uncertainty. It is possible to determine the optimum power generation plan that can maintain the transient stability of 21 robustly.

  The demand prediction information 13B is information that predicts the magnitude of demand in each time zone of the day (for example, every 30 minutes), and is predicted with high accuracy based on the empirical rule of the system operator.

  The generator information 13C is information regarding the generator 22. FIG. 4 is a diagram showing an example of the generator information 13C of the embodiment. The generator information 13C is, for example, information in which a number that is identification information of a generator is associated with a generator name, an incremental fuel cost, a current output, a maximum output, a minimum output, and a maximum output change speed. Is. The incremental fuel cost is information regarding the fuel cost that varies depending on the fuel used in the generator 22. The maximum output change speed is, for example, information indicating the speed at which the output can be changed per unit time.

  The power generation plan information 13D includes the power generation plan determined by the initial power generation plan determination unit 14C and the power generation plan determined by the optimum power generation plan determination unit 14E. The power generation plan includes, for example, a predetermined operation plan of the power system 21 such as start / stop of the generator 22, increase / decrease in output of the generator 22, turning on / off of phase-modulating equipment, and the like.

  The expected accident case information 13E is information regarding a presumed expected accident in the power system 21. Typical examples of expected accidents categorized in advance include transmission line failure, bus failure, generator failure (failure of generator 22), transformer failure, and the like.

  FIG. 5 is a diagram showing an example of the contents of the assumed accident case information 13E of the embodiment. As shown in FIG. 5, in the assumed accident case information 13E, for example, the identification information for identifying each accident (for example, the accident number) is associated with the accident target location, the accident appearance, and the electronic control pattern. It is the information provided. The accident target location is a location where an accident is assumed to occur in the electric power system 21. The accident target location is information indicating the location, and is represented by, for example, a track number, a node name, a branch name, or the like. The accident aspect is a type of accident that occurs in the electric power system 21. The information such as “3Φ3LG” in the figure is a code indicating the aspect of the accident. Hereinafter, the combination of the accident number, the accident response location, and the accident aspect will be referred to as the accident type. The electric control pattern is a combination of generators whose power source is limited (electric control) in the case of an expected accident. The electric control pattern is, for example, a pattern that is predetermined as a pattern that maximizes the stabilizing effect for each expected accident. Alternatively, it may be a predetermined pattern determined in advance by the operator for each possible accident.

  The system status information 13F includes, for example, node data and branch data. FIG. 6 is a diagram showing an example of the contents of the node data. FIG. 7 is a diagram showing an example of the content of branch data. The node data shown in FIG. 6 includes, for example, a node name, a voltage, a phase, a generator output (active power output, reactive power output), a load (active power load, reactive power load), and a phase adjusting facility. The information is associated with the information. The branch data shown in FIG. 7 is information in which, for example, a branch name is associated with active power flow, reactive power flow, active power loss, and reactive power loss information. Further, although not shown, information necessary for power flow calculation and transient stability calculation such as the impedance of the branch, the number of lines, and the tap ratio when the branch is a transformer may be included.

  The processing unit 14 includes, for example, a data management unit 14A, a power generation demand forecast value determination unit 14B, an initial power generation plan determination unit 14C, an output fluctuation pattern creation unit 14D, an optimum power generation plan determination unit 14E, and a grid state information collection. The unit 14F and the power generation plan information transmission unit 14G are provided. These functional units are realized, for example, by a processor such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit) executing a program (software). Further, some or all of these functional units are hardware (LSI (Large Scale Integration), ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit), FPGA (Field-Programmable Gate Array), GPU (Graphics Processing Unit), etc. It may be realized by a circuit unit (including circuitry), or may be realized by cooperation of software and hardware. The program may be stored in advance in a storage device such as an HDD (Hard Disk Drive) or a flash memory, or may be stored in a removable storage medium such as a DVD or a CD-ROM, and the storage medium may be stored in the drive device. It may be installed by being attached.

  The data management unit 14A stores, in the storage unit 13, information input by the operator of the power system 21 using the input unit 11, for example. The data management unit 14A may store the information received from the external device via the network in the storage unit 13.

  The power generation demand forecast value determination unit 14B requests the generator 22 based on the demand forecast value in the power system 21 and the renewable energy output forecast value that is the forecast value of the amount of electric power output by the renewable energy power source 23. A power generation demand forecast value that is a forecast value of the amount of electric power to be generated is determined. FIG. 8: is a figure which shows an example of the renewable energy output estimated value in the unit time zone of a day. FIG. 9: is a figure which shows an example of the demand forecast value in the unit time zone of a day. FIG. 10: is a figure which shows an example of the power generation demand forecast value in the unit time zone of a day. The power generation demand forecast value determination unit 14B derives the power generation demand forecast value shown in FIG. 10 by subtracting the renewable energy output forecast value shown in FIG. 8 from the demand forecast value shown in FIG. 9, for example.

  FIG. 8 is an example of the predicted value of the photovoltaic power generation output. The time width on the horizontal axis is preferably equal to or smaller than the time width of the power generation plan determined by the power generation plan determination system 10. When it is larger than the time width of the power generation plan, a predicted value having the same time width as the time width of the power generation plan may be calculated by linear interpolation or the like. Although the predicted value of the photovoltaic power generation output is shown as an example in FIG. 8, the predicted value or the planned value of the renewable energy power source 23 in the grid area to which the generator 22 of the power generation plan belongs other than the target of the power generation plan is shown. It may be obtained and the total value may be calculated.

  FIG. 9 is an example of the predicted value of the total demand of the grid area to which the generator targeted by the power generation plan determination system 10 belongs, for example. The time width on the horizontal axis is preferably equal to or smaller than the time width of the power generation plan determined by the power generation plan determination system 10. When it is larger than the time width of the power generation plan, a predicted value having the same time width as the time width of the power generation plan may be calculated by linear interpolation or the like.

  The initial power generation plan determination unit 14C determines the initial power generation plan of the power generator 22 based on the power generator information 13C, the grid state information 13F, and the power generation demand forecast value determined by the power generation demand forecast value determination unit 14B. The initial power generation plan is a power generation plan before the final power generation plan is determined by the optimum power generation plan determination unit 14E described later, and is an initial value of the power generation plan. Therefore, the initial power generation plan determination unit 14C does not consider the transient stability, and, for example, under various constraint conditions, the maximum economy (minimizes the power generation cost of the generator that is the target of the power generation plan) is used as the objective function. The start / stop plan (UC) and the output plan of the planned generator are determined as optimization problems every unit time. The constraint conditions include, for example, a reserve power reserve constraint (a constraint that secures a reserve power reserve of a predetermined ratio with respect to net demand), an LFC reserve power constraint (a reserve power constraint that each generator reserves for load frequency control), The output change speed constraint (the output change speed constraint that allows the generator to be changed in a unit time), the output upper / lower limit constraint of the generator 22, and the like are included. For example, the initial power generation plan determination unit 14C can adopt a general power generation planning method as shown in the following references. Reference: “Development of Supply and Demand Control Technology Considering Mass PV Introduction Part 2 Supply and Demand Planning Function and Simulation Results”, Mitsubishi Electric, Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan, PE-13-48 (September 2013)).

  The output fluctuation pattern creation unit 14D creates an output fluctuation pattern of the renewable energy output predicted value based on the fluctuation output predicted value whose occurrence probability differs from the renewable energy output predicted value. The fluctuation output prediction value is derived by the output fluctuation pattern creation unit 14D, for example, based on the output prediction value and the probability distribution included in the renewable energy output prediction information 13A. The output fluctuation pattern includes a plurality of power flow sections when the predicted renewable energy output value deviates. The uniquely given renewable energy output predicted value has only the highest occurrence probability, and actually, the predicted value of the renewable energy power source 23 is shown by a probability distribution as shown in FIG.

  In addition, the output fluctuation pattern creation unit 14D extracts only the fluctuation output predicted value that is highly likely to affect the decrease in the transient stability among the fluctuation output predicted values, and the output fluctuation based on the extracted fluctuation output predicted value. You may create a pattern. In other words, the output fluctuation pattern creation unit 14D may create the output fluctuation pattern by excluding the fluctuation output prediction value that is unlikely to affect the decrease in transient stability from the fluctuation output prediction value. The transient stability is an index indicating the stability of the power supply in the power system 21, and is, for example, at least one of an overload margin, a transient stability margin, a voltage stability margin, and a frequency stability margin. Including.

  For example, the output fluctuation pattern creation unit 14D extracts a fluctuation output prediction value for which the transient stability index is less than a predetermined threshold value, based on the transient stability index predetermined according to the fluctuation output prediction value. . The term "less than a predetermined threshold value" as used herein includes, for example, a case where the circuit is unstable when electrically controlled by a predetermined electric control pattern, a case where a CCT (critical fault elimination time) is a predetermined time or less, and the like. .

More specifically, the output fluctuation pattern creation unit 14D first predicts, based on the renewable energy output prediction information 13A, the predicted value of each renewable energy power source 23 in the grid area to which the generator 22 that is the target of the power generation plan belongs. Get the probability distribution of. The output fluctuation pattern creation unit 14D defines a confidence interval that should ensure transient stability from the acquired probability distribution. For example, the output fluctuation pattern creation unit 14D uses the predicted value ± 2σ as the confidence interval, and evaluates the transient stability with the predicted values + 2σ and −2σ at both ends of the confidence interval in addition to the predicted value (= 0σ) of the renewable energy power source. To do. In this case, assuming that the total number of the renewable energy power sources 23 in the grid area to which the generator of the power generation plan belongs is N, it becomes necessary to evaluate the transient stability of 3 ^N ways of the tidal current cross section, and the calculation load is enormous. Becomes Therefore, for example, the output predicted value of the renewable energy power source 23 such as a substation unit is summed in a specific area (area within the grid area to which the generator 22 targeted for the power generation plan belongs) and aggregated into n areas. Then, the output fluctuation pattern creation unit 14D may evaluate the transient stability of 3 ⁿ ways of the power flow cross-section (N> n). However, for example, even if n = 4 and areas are aggregated into four areas, it is necessary to evaluate the transient stability with 81 patterns, and the optimum power generation plan determination unit 14E described later outputs the output in the process of optimizing the power generation plan. Since the transient stability calculation for the tidal current cross section reflecting the fluctuation pattern is repeated, it is desirable to further reduce the calculation load. Accordingly, the output variation pattern creation section 14D from tide sectional portion of 3 ⁿ as, narrowed down to a pattern transient stability is equal to or less than a predetermined threshold.

  For the transient stability evaluation referred to in the extraction of the output fluctuation pattern, there is a method of using detailed simulation (time series calculation of differential equation). However, the present invention is not limited to this, and for example, a method of estimating and screening transient stability based on a statistical method such as a neural network or regression model based on the power flow calculation result may be used.

  Further, the output fluctuation of the renewable energy power source 23 also includes a deviation of the supply and demand situation from the initial value of the power generation plan (deviation from the predicted value). For example, the output fluctuation pattern creation unit 14D uses the deviation from the supply and demand cross-section, which is referred to when the initial value of the power generation plan is determined, to a value other than the change in the power generation plan such as governor-free generator and load frequency control (LFC). By adjusting by means, the supply and demand cross section corresponding to the output fluctuation pattern of the renewable energy power source 23 is created.

  The optimum power generation plan determination unit 14E, based on the information about the expected accident and the output fluctuation pattern created by the output fluctuation pattern creation unit 14D, predicts the transient stability of the power system 21 after the expected accident. And the optimum power generation plan is determined based on the derived transient stability. The optimal power generation plan is a power generation plan that can maintain transient stability robustly in a plurality of output fluctuation patterns.

  For example, the optimum power generation plan determination unit 14E repeats the process of changing the initial power generation plan until the transient stability in all output fluctuation patterns satisfies the predetermined condition, and the transient stability in all output fluctuation patterns satisfies the predetermined condition. The power generation plan is determined to be the optimum power generation plan. Specifically, the optimum power generation plan determination unit 14E evaluates the transient stability of the assumed accident case with respect to the supply and demand cross section corresponding to the output fluctuation pattern, and minimizes the objective function while satisfying the constraint condition regarding the transient stability. The power generation plan to be set is determined as the optimum power generation plan. Similar to the process of determining the initial power generation plan, the objective function is, for example, the amount of change in the power generation plan of the planned generator so that the generation cost is minimized and the generators to be changed in the generation plan are not biased. It is intended to minimize the deviation of the integrated value within a certain period.

  In this way, the optimum power generation plan determination unit 14E formulates, when there is a section in which the determination result of the transient stability becomes unstable in the supply and demand section in consideration of the output fluctuation pattern of the renewable energy power source 23. Review the generated power plan. Judgment of transient stability is based on the assumption that the system stabilization system operates at the time of an accident, for example, to determine the transient stability when the system is controlled by the electric control pattern that maximizes the stabilizing effect assumed in the system stabilization system. It is possible to adopt the discrimination result.

  The optimum power generation plan determination unit 14E derives the transient stability in a state in which the power generation by the generator included in the electric control pattern is limited based on a predetermined electric control pattern, and the derived transient stability is calculated. The optimum power generation plan may be determined based on the above.

  Further, when there are a plurality of power generation plans that can maintain the transient stability robustly in a plurality of output fluctuation patterns, the optimum power generation plan determination unit 14E selects the power generation cost required for power generation by a plurality of generators from among the plurality of power generation plans. It is also possible to select a power generation plan having the smallest value and determine the selected power generation plan as the optimum power generation plan. By doing so, it is possible to determine an optimal power generation plan that is cost effective.

  Further, when there are a plurality of power generation plans that can maintain the transient stability robustly in a plurality of output fluctuation patterns, the optimum power generation plan determination unit 14E changes the part changed from the initial power generation plan among the plurality of power generation plans. It is also possible to select a power generation plan that minimizes the deviation of the integrated value in a certain period in which the amount is integrated for each generator, and determine the selected power generation plan as the optimum power generation plan. By doing so, it is possible to prevent a situation where only the same generators are restricted and to determine a good optimal power generation plan from the viewpoint of fairness.

  Further, when there are a plurality of power generation plans that can maintain the transient stability robustly in a plurality of output fluctuation patterns, the optimum power generation plan determination unit 14E causes the display unit 12 to display the plurality of power generation plans, Therefore, the power generation plan selected by the user using the input unit 11 may be determined as the optimum power generation plan.

  Further, the optimum power generation plan determination unit 14E includes, for example, a system state estimation unit 141 and a transient stability evaluation unit 142.

  The system state estimation unit 141 estimates the future system state of the power system 21 based on the current system state of the power system 21. The system status estimation unit 141 may acquire the information indicating the current system status from the system status information collection unit 14F or may read the information from the system status information 13F of the storage unit 13. When estimating the future system state, the system state estimation unit 141 also refers to the renewable energy output prediction information 13A, the demand prediction information 13B, the initial power generation plan, and the like. In addition, the grid state estimation unit 141 estimates a plurality of second grid states based on the predicted value (variable output predicted value) according to the width of the predicted value predicted as the output of the renewable energy power source 23. Good.

  For example, the transient stability evaluation unit 142 inputs the future system state estimated by the system state estimation unit 141 and an accident expected in the future system state (supposed accident case information 13E) into the evaluation model. , Derive the transient stability in the power system 21 after an expected accident. When deriving the transient stability, the transient stability evaluation unit 142 may further input the renewable energy output prediction information 13A into the evaluation model to derive the transient stability. The evaluation model is, for example, information generated by an external learning processing device and is stored in the storage unit 13.

  The system status information collecting unit 14F collects various information regarding the current system status of the power system 21 based on the system information received from the measuring device 25 installed in the power system 21. The system status information collection unit 14F may be stored in the storage unit 13 as a part of the system status information 13F, or may be output to a functional unit included in the processing unit 14. The system state is a state of electric power supplied by the power system 21 at the present time, and includes, for example, at least one of voltage, phase, load, generator output, and power flow at a plurality of locations in the power system 21.

  The power generation plan information transmission unit 14G transmits information indicating the optimum power generation plan determined by the optimum power generation plan determination unit 14E to the control terminal device 26. The control terminal device 26 reflects the received optimum power generation plan in the system operation, for example, by reflecting it in the output plan information of the generator at the central power feeding command station. The power generation plan information transmitting unit 14G may transmit information indicating the power generation plan selected by the user as the optimum power generation plan via the input unit 11 to the control terminal device 26.

  FIG. 11 is a flowchart showing an example of the overall processing flow in the power generation plan determination system 10.

  First, the processing unit 14 acquires a renewable energy output predicted value (step S1). For example, the predicted renewable energy output value is input to the processing unit 14 via the input unit 11 and stored in the storage unit 13 by the data management unit 14A. Next, the processing unit 14 acquires the demand forecast value (step S2). For example, the demand forecast value is input to the processing unit 14 via the input unit 11 and stored in the storage unit 13 by the data management unit 14A. Then, the power generation demand forecast value determination unit 14B determines the power generation demand forecast value based on the information acquired in steps S1 and S2 (step S3). The initial power generation plan determination unit 14C determines an initial power generation plan based on the power generation demand forecast value determined by the power generation demand forecast value determination unit 14B, the generator information 13C, the grid state information 13F, and the like (step S4).

  The output fluctuation pattern creation unit 14D refers to the renewable energy output prediction information 13A and creates an output fluctuation pattern of the renewable energy output prediction value based on the fluctuation output prediction value (step S5). Next, the optimum power generation plan determination unit 14E, based on the assumed accident case information and the output fluctuation pattern created by the output fluctuation pattern creation unit 14D, predicts the transient stability of the power system 21 after the expected accident. And the optimum power generation plan is determined based on the derived transient stability (step S6). The details of the process of step S6 will be described later. Then, the power generation plan information transmission unit 14G transmits information indicating the optimum power generation plan determined by the optimum power generation plan determination unit 14E to the control terminal device 26 (step S7).

  12 and 13 are flowcharts showing an example of the flow of processing in the optimum power generation plan determination unit 14E.

  First, the optimum power generation plan determination unit 14E performs power flow calculation on, for example, the supply and demand cross section (or the power flow cross section) created by the output fluctuation pattern creation unit 14D (step S101). The power flow calculation is performed by inputting the topology of the power system, impedance information, specified values of active / reactive power load, specified voltage of the generator, etc., and the voltage distribution / power distribution (node voltage or branch Tide) is calculated.

  Next, the optimum power generation plan determination unit 14E sets an accident case for which the transient stability is evaluated (step S102). The accident case includes the accident point and the appearance of the accident. For example, the accident point is information such as an accident on the A transmission line. The assumed accident case may be arbitrarily decided by the user, and the accident case may be limited, for example, only the case where the transient stability is severe, or the accident cases whose occurrence probability is a predetermined value or more are extracted. .

  Next, the optimum power generation plan determination unit 14E determines whether or not to set a power control pattern (step S103). For example, whether or not to set the electronic control pattern may be determined in advance. Further, when there is no electric control pattern corresponding to the set expected accident case, it may be determined that the electric control pattern is not set.

  When setting the electric control pattern, the optimum power generation plan determination unit 14E sets the electric control pattern for the accident case set in S102 (step S104). The user may arbitrarily determine the electric control pattern to be set. For example, the optimal power generation plan determination unit 14E sets an electric control pattern that maximizes the stabilizing effect assumed in the system stabilizing system, on the assumption that the system stabilizing system operates.

  Next, the optimal power generation plan determination unit 14E determines, based on the power flow calculation result of S101, the transient stability when the power control pattern is set in S104 for the plurality of accident conditions set in S102, in step S5. The output fluctuation pattern created in step S5 is evaluated (step S105). The transient stability calculation may be a detailed simulation (a time series calculation of a differential equation), and from the viewpoint of shortening the calculation time, for example, it is based on a statistical method such as a neural network or a regression model based on the power flow calculation result. A transient stability estimation method or the like may be applied.

  Next, the optimum power generation plan determination unit 14E calculates an objective function based on the transient stability calculation result (step S106). The objective function is a constrained objective function including the constraint of transient stability. Regarding the transient stability constraint, it is judged whether the power generation plan to be evaluated is stable, and if it is not stable, a penalty is imposed as a constraint violation. The penalty may be, for example, a fixed penalty when it becomes unstable, or a variable penalty (outer point penalty) depending on the degree of instability such as time until step out. Further, in addition to the constraint of the transient stability, for example, a reserve power supply, a frequency adjustment surplus power, an upper and lower limit of the generator, an output change speed, and the like may be set as constraints. The objective function is the fixed period of the amount of change in the power generation plan of the planned generators so that the generation cost is minimized and the generators to be changed in the generation plan are not biased, as in the case of the initial value of the power generation plan. It is conceivable to minimize the bias of the integrated value in the above. If there are multiple assumed accident conditions and fluctuation patterns, the transient stability is evaluated for each pattern combination, the objective function is calculated, and the final objective function is added.

  On the other hand, when the electric control pattern is not set in step S103, the optimum power generation plan determination unit 14E derives the transient stability for each set fluctuation pattern (step S107) and calculates the objective function.

  Next, the optimal power generation plan determination unit 14E determines whether the objective function satisfies the allowable value after calculating the objective function (step S108). The allowable value determination may be, for example, determination as to whether or not all constraint conditions are satisfied, or determination as to whether or not the objective function is less than or equal to a predetermined threshold value. Also, for example, although a solution that satisfies all the constraint conditions could be derived, if the power generation cost exceeds the allowable value and the solution obtained by optimization is not the solution desired by the user, the constraint condition is set by the user's intention. It is conceivable to mitigate it or narrow down the assumed accident conditions and the output fluctuation pattern of the renewable energy power source.

  When it is determined in step S108 that the objective function is not the allowable value, the optimum power generation plan determination unit 14E adjusts the power generation plan (step S109). The adjustment of the power generation plan is considered to be a constrained optimization problem that minimizes the objective function calculated in S106. The power generation planning problem is a mixed integer programming problem that is a combination of a generator planned output that is a continuous value and a start-stop state that is a discrete value shown in FIG. 14. For example, by using an evolutionary algorithm such as a genetic algorithm, The power generation plan can be optimized by repeating the processes of the flowcharts of FIGS. FIG. 14 is a diagram illustrating an example of the generator planned output. The optimal power generation plan determination unit 14E changes the initial power generation plan determined by the initial power generation plan determination unit 14C as adjustment of the power generation plan, for example.

  After adjusting the power generation plan, the optimum power generation plan determination unit 14E creates a power supply and demand cross section after the power generation plan adjustment by the same method as the output fluctuation pattern creation unit 14D (step S110). Then, the process returns to step S101 and the process is repeated.

  On the other hand, when it is determined in step S108 that the objective function is the allowable value, the optimum power generation plan determination unit 14E determines the target power generation plan as a candidate for the optimum power generation plan (step S111). Here, the optimal power generation plan determination unit 14E may select one solution that minimizes the objective function, or may leave a plurality of candidates for which the objective function has an allowable value, and perform processing in S113 and later described below. The optimum power generation plan may be selected from Then, the optimum power generation plan determination unit 14E determines whether or not all the processes have been completed (step S112). When all the processes are not completed, the process returns to step S101 and is repeated.

  When all the processes are completed in step S112, the optimum power generation plan determination unit 14E determines whether or not there is only one candidate for the optimum power generation plan determined in step S111 (step S113). When there is only one candidate for the optimum power generation plan, the optimum power generation plan determination unit 14E determines the candidate as the optimum power generation plan (step S114).

  On the other hand, when there is not only one candidate in step S113, the optimal power generation plan determination unit 14E determines whether or not cost is emphasized (step S115). If cost is important, the optimum power generation plan determination unit 14E selects a power generation plan that minimizes the power generation cost required for power generation of a plurality of generators from among a plurality of optimum power generation plan candidates, and selects the selected power generation plan. The optimum power generation plan is determined (step S116).

  On the other hand, when the cost is not emphasized in step S115, the optimum power generation plan determination unit 14E determines whether or not the fairness is emphasized (step S117). When the fairness is emphasized, the optimum power generation plan determination unit 14E calculates, from the plurality of candidates for the optimum power generation plan, the integrated value in a certain period, which is the total amount of change of the part changed from the initial power generation plan for each generator. A power generation plan with the least bias is selected, and the selected power generation plan is determined as the optimum power generation plan (step S118).

  It should be noted that whether the emphasis is on cost or the importance on fairness is set in advance by the user.

  According to at least one embodiment described above, a demand forecast value in a power system facility to which a plurality of renewable energy power sources and a plurality of generators are connected, and a prediction of the amount of power output by the renewable energy power sources. Based on the output predicted value that is a value, the power generation demand predicted value determination unit that determines a power generation demand predicted value that is a predicted value of the amount of electric power required for the generator, and the power generation demand predicted value determination unit. Based on the power generation demand prediction value, an initial power generation plan determination unit that determines an initial power generation plan of the generator, and the output prediction based on the output prediction value and a plurality of variable output prediction values having different occurrence probabilities. An output fluctuation pattern creating unit that creates a plurality of output fluctuation patterns of values, information about a possible accident, and a plurality of the outputs created by the output fluctuation pattern creating unit Based on the dynamic pattern, the transient stability of the power system equipment predicted after the supposed accident is derived, and the transient stability in the output fluctuation pattern is calculated based on the derived transient stability. By having an optimum power generation plan determination unit that determines an optimum power generation plan that can be maintained, it is possible to determine a power generation plan that can ensure transient stability even when the capacity of the generator decreases.

  This makes it possible to formulate a power generation plan that minimizes operating costs while maintaining transient stability while taking into account uncertain fluctuations in the predicted value of renewable energy output in the future time (unit time of power generation plan). Becomes Even if a power generation plan that satisfies the transient stability constraint cannot be searched for the output fluctuation patterns of all the renewable energy output predicted values, minimizing the objective function can prevent uncertain fluctuations in the renewable energy power source. It is possible to reduce the risk that transient stability cannot be maintained.

  In addition, the target function can be prevented from being biased by minimizing the bias of the integrated value of the amount of change in the power generation plan of the generator to be planned within a certain period. For example, it may be useful in situations where bias in plan change is a problem, such as when the system operator who formulates a power generation plan requests a plan change for a generator other than the one under the jurisdiction.

  In addition, considering the uncertain fluctuations in the predicted renewable energy output value, we will finally formulate one type of power generation plan to improve transient stability against fluctuations in the renewable energy power supply in the actual supply and demand section. Can be kept robust. It is considered that the ratio of real-time supply and demand adjustment of the grid through the market will increase in the future, and the degree of freedom for grid operators to operate the tidal current distribution will decrease. It is considered that the need for the function to formulate one power generation plan that is robust in terms of transient stability in view of risk will increase.

  Although some embodiments of the present invention have been described, these embodiments are presented as examples and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention. These embodiments can be implemented in various other forms, and various omissions, replacements, and changes can be made without departing from the spirit of the invention. These embodiments and their modifications are included in the invention described in the claims and the equivalents thereof as well as included in the scope and the gist of the invention.

  For example, a plurality of storage batteries may be connected to the power system 21. The plurality of storage batteries mainly stores the electric power generated by the renewable energy power source 23. In this case, the power generation plan determination system 10 may determine the optimum power generation plan based on information indicating the SOC (State Of Charge) of the storage battery.

  Next, a second embodiment will be described. In the second embodiment, in consideration of the separation of the power generation company and the power transmission and distribution company, the transient stability is set for the adjustment power (power source I, power source II, etc.) plan procured by the power transmission and distribution company. To consider. Since the main basic configuration overlaps with that of the first embodiment, only different parts will be described below.

  FIG. 15: is a figure which shows an example of a structure of 10 A of electric power generation plan determination systems of this embodiment. Differences from the first embodiment are (1) input of retailer plan information 13G instead of demand forecast information 13B, (2) input of power generation company plan information 13H, and (3) generation plan In place of the initial power generation plan determination unit 14C that plans the initial value, an initial adjustment power plan determination unit 14H that plans the initial value of the adjustment power plan is added, (4) instead of the optimum power generation plan determination unit 14E That is, the optimum adjustment power plan determination unit 14J is added.

  The retail business plan information G is information indicating a demand plan for a consumer who is a target for selling electric power by the retail business. The demand plan may include a plan for electric power generated by the renewable energy power source 23.

  The power generation company plan information H is the power generation plan of itself determined by the power generation company. The power generation plan may include a plan for electric power generated by the renewable energy power source 23.

  The initial adjustment power plan determination unit 14H determines the initial adjustment power plan based on the retailer business plan information G, the power generation business operator plan information H, the generator information 13C, the system state information 13F, and the like. The initial adjustment power plan is a power generation plan in a previous stage in which the final adjustment power plan is determined by the optimum adjustment power plan determination unit 14J described later, and is an initial value of the adjustment power plan. The initial adjustment capability plan determination unit 14H accumulates, for example, the total demand plan value obtained by accumulating the demand plans submitted by the retailers by all the retailers and the power generation plans submitted by the power producers by all the power producers. If there is a difference in the total power generation plan value, an initial adjustment power plan that compensates for the difference is determined.

  The optimal adjustment power plan determination unit 14J, based on the information about the expected accident and the output fluctuation pattern created by the output fluctuation pattern creation unit 14D, predicts the transient stability of the power system 21 after the expected accident. The degree of stability is derived, and the optimal adjusting force plan is determined based on the derived transient stability. The optimal adjustment power plan is an adjustment power plan that can maintain transient stability robustly in a plurality of output fluctuation patterns.

  In the operation of the electric power system after the separation of the power transmission, the retailer generally sends a sales plan (demand plan) to the customers who sell the electric power to the power transmission and distribution company via the wide area organization (OCCTO). hand in. Similarly, the power generation company submits its own power generation plan to the power transmission and distribution company via OCCTO. The plan span is assumed to be every 30 minutes, for example.

  Regarding the renewable energy power source 23, when it is included in the demand plan of the retailer, in the power generation plan of the power generation company, and separately from them, the FIT power source that the power transmission and distribution company submits to the OCCTO. It is assumed that it is included in the purchase plan of. Deviations from the plan due to the renewable energy power source 23 are responsible for the liquidation of each plan by the business operator who formulates the plan. In any case, it is considered that the power transmission and distribution company can obtain the planned value of the renewable energy power source 23, and therefore the present embodiment is applicable to any of the cases described above. Based on the demand plan submitted by the retailer and the power generation plan submitted by the power generation company, the power transmission and distribution company makes an initial plan of its own adjustment power (for example, power source I, power source II, etc.). Formulate.

  The flow after formulating the initial plan for adjusting power will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 16 has the same basic configuration as the flowchart of FIG. 11, and the main difference is that the planning target is the adjustment power.

  FIG. 16 is a flowchart showing an example of the overall processing flow in the power generation plan determination system 10A.

  First, the processing unit 14 acquires the power generation plan information of the power generation company (step S1 '). For example, the power generation plan information of the power generation company is input to the processing unit 14 via the input unit 11 and stored in the storage unit 13 by the data management unit 14A. Next, the processing unit 14 acquires the power generation plan information of the retailer (step S2 '). For example, the power generation plan information of the retailer is input to the processing unit 14 via the input unit 11 and stored in the storage unit 13 by the data management unit 14A. Then, the initial adjustment power plan determination unit 14H determines the initial adjustment power plan based on the power generation demand prediction value determined by the power generation demand prediction value determination unit 14B, the generator information 13C, the grid state information 13F, and the like ( Step S4 ').

  The output fluctuation pattern creation unit 14D refers to the renewable energy output prediction information 13A and creates an output fluctuation pattern of the renewable energy output prediction value based on the fluctuation output prediction value (step S5). Next, the optimal adjustment power plan determination unit 14J, based on the expected accident case information and the output fluctuation pattern created by the output fluctuation pattern creation unit 14D, predicts the transient stability of the power system 21 after the expected accident. And the optimum adjusting force plan is determined based on the derived transient stability (step S6 ′). The details of the processing in step S6 'will be described later. Then, the power generation plan information transmission unit 14G transmits information indicating the optimum adjustment power plan determined by the optimum adjustment power plan determination unit 14J to the control terminal device 26 (step S7 ').

  FIG. 17 is a process of creating an optimal adjustment power plan, and the basic flow is the same as that of FIG. 12 except that the planning target is the adjustment power. FIG. 18 is a process for selecting an optimal plan from candidates for the adjustment power plan, which is the same process as FIG. 13 except that the planning target is the adjustment power and that the cost calculation is replaced by the adjustment cost. is there.

  When it is determined in step S108 that the objective function is not the allowable value, the optimum adjusting force plan determination unit 14J adjusts the adjusting force plan (step S109 '). The adjustment of the adjustment plan is adjusted in the same way as the adjustment of the power generation plan. The optimal adjustment power plan determination unit 14J changes the initial adjustment power plan determined by the initial adjustment power plan determination unit 14H, for example, as adjustment of the adjustment power plan.

  After adjusting the adjusting power plan, the optimum adjusting power plan determining unit 14J creates a supply and demand cross section after adjusting the adjusting power plan by the same method as the output fluctuation pattern creating unit 14D (step S110). Then, the process returns to step S101 and the process is repeated.

  On the other hand, when it is determined in step S108 that the objective function is the allowable value, the optimum adjusting force plan determination unit 14J determines the target adjusting force plan as a candidate for the optimum adjusting force plan (step S111 ').

  When all the processes are completed in step S112, the optimal adjustment force plan determination unit 14J determines whether or not there is only one candidate for the optimal adjustment force plan determined in step S111 (step S113). When there is only one candidate for the optimal adjustment power plan, the optimal adjustment power plan determination unit 14J determines the candidate as the optimal adjustment power plan (step S114 ').

  On the other hand, in step S113, when there is not only one candidate, the optimal adjustment power plan determination unit 14J determines whether or not cost is emphasized (step S115). When the cost is emphasized, the optimum adjustment power plan determination unit 14J selects and selects the adjustment power plan that minimizes the power generation cost required for power generation of the plurality of generators 22 from the plurality of candidates for the optimum adjustment power plan. The adjusted adjustment plan is determined as the optimum adjustment plan (step S116 ').

  On the other hand, when the cost is not emphasized in step S115, the optimum adjustment power plan determination unit 14J determines whether or not the fairness is emphasized (step S117). When fairness is emphasized, the optimal adjustment power plan determination unit 14J integrates, for each generator, the amount of change of the portion changed from the initial power generation plan from among the plurality of candidates for the optimal adjustment power plan, and integrates it over a certain period. An adjusting force plan with the smallest deviation in value is selected, and the selected adjusting force plan is determined as the optimum adjusting force plan (step S118 ′).

  When the cost is used as the objective function in S106, the way of thinking is different from that of the first embodiment. The cost in the second embodiment is an adjustment cost, which is settled on the basis of the results adjusted by the power transmission and distribution business operator for the business operator (mainly the power generation business operator) who enjoys the adjustment power. For example, it is calculated from the increase cost unit price (V1), the decrease cost unit price (V2), the activation unit price (V3), and the like. Note that the adjustment costs calculated here are only the estimated costs that would be incurred when operating according to the prepared adjustment power plan, and the actual adjustment power costs will be finally settled based on the actual results after the day of operation. .

  According to the second embodiment described above, it is possible to determine the adjustment power plan that can secure the transient stability even when the capacity of the generator 22 decreases.

  As a result, in the future time (unit time of the power generation plan), considering the uncertain fluctuation of the predicted renewable energy output value, the adjustment power plan is created to minimize the adjustment power cost while maintaining the transient stability. Is possible. Even if a power generation plan that satisfies the transient stability constraint cannot be searched for the output fluctuation patterns of all the renewable energy output predicted values, minimizing the objective function can prevent uncertain fluctuations in the renewable energy power source. It is possible to reduce the risk that transient stability cannot be maintained.

  Further, by setting the objective function to minimize the deviation of the integrated value of the change amount of the adjustment power of the planning target within a fixed period, it is possible to prevent the planning object from being biased. For example, the adjustment amount and the adjustment record can be made fair to the power generation company that provides the adjustment power secured by the power transmission and distribution company.

  In addition, by considering uncertain fluctuations in the predicted renewable energy output value and finally formulating one type of adjusting power plan, transient stability against fluctuations in renewable energy power sources in the actual supply and demand Can be kept robust. It is considered that the ratio of real-time supply and demand adjustment of the grid through the market will increase in the future, and the degree of freedom for grid operators to operate the tidal current distribution will decrease. The need for a function to develop one coordinating power plan that is robust in terms of transient stability in view of risk is expected to increase.

10 ... Power generation plan determination system, 11 ... Input part, 12 ... Display part, 13 ... Storage part, 14 ... Processing part, 21 ... Electric power system, 22 ... Generator, 23 ... Renewable energy power supply, 24 ... Consumer, 25 ... Measuring device, 26 ... Control terminal device, 31 ... Regional set, 13A ... Renewable energy output prediction information, 13B ... Demand prediction information, 13C ... Generator information, 13D ... Power generation plan information, 13E ... Assumed accident case information, 13F ... system status information, 14A ... data management section, 14B ... power generation demand forecast value determining section, 14C ... initial power generation plan determining section, 14D ... output fluctuation pattern creating section, 14E ... optimal power generation plan determining section, 14F ... system status information collection Section, 14G ... Power generation plan information transmission section 141 ... System state estimation section, 142 ... Transient stability evaluation section

Claims (9)

Based on a demand forecast value in a power system facility in which a plurality of renewable energy power sources and a plurality of generators are connected, and an output forecast value that is a forecast value of the amount of power output by the renewable energy power source, A power generation demand forecast value determination unit that determines a power generation demand forecast value that is a forecast value of the amount of power required for the generator;
An initial power generation plan determination unit that determines an initial power generation plan of the generator based on the power generation demand prediction value determined by the power generation demand prediction value determination unit;
An output fluctuation pattern creating unit that creates a plurality of output fluctuation patterns of the output predicted value based on a plurality of fluctuation output predicted values having different output predicted values and occurrence probabilities.
Deriving the transient stability of the power system equipment predicted after the supposed accident based on the information on the supposed accident and the plurality of output fluctuation patterns created by the output fluctuation pattern creating unit. An optimum power generation plan determination unit that determines an optimum power generation plan capable of maintaining the transient stability in the output fluctuation pattern based on the derived transient stability.
A power generation plan determination system including. The optimum power generation plan determination unit,
The process of changing the initial power generation plan is repeated until the transient stability in all the output fluctuation patterns satisfies the predetermined condition, and the power generation plan in which the transient stability in all the output fluctuation patterns satisfies the predetermined condition is optimized. Decide on a power generation plan,
The power generation plan determination system according to claim 1. The optimum power generation plan determination unit,
Deriving the transient stability in a state in which the power generation by the generators included in the electric control pattern is restricted, based on the electric control pattern indicating a combination of generators in which power generation is restricted at the time of the expected accident And determining the optimum power generation plan based on the derived transient stability,
The power generation plan determination system according to claim 1. When there are a plurality of power generation plans capable of maintaining the transient stability in the plurality of output fluctuation patterns, the optimum power generation plan determination unit,
From the plurality of power generation plans, select a power generation plan that minimizes the power generation cost required for power generation of the plurality of generators, and determine the selected power generation plan as the optimum power generation plan,
The power generation plan determination system according to any one of claims 1 to 3. When there are a plurality of power generation plans capable of maintaining the transient stability in the plurality of output fluctuation patterns, the optimum power generation plan determination unit,
From the plurality of power generation plans, select the power generation plan that minimizes the deviation of the integrated value in a certain period in which the amount of change of the portion changed from the initial power generation plan is integrated for each generator, and select the power generation. Determine the plan as the optimal power generation plan,
The power generation plan determination system according to any one of claims 1 to 4. The output fluctuation pattern creation unit,
Based on the transient stability index predetermined according to the plurality of fluctuation output prediction values, the fluctuation output prediction value that the transient stability index is less than a predetermined threshold value is extracted, the extracted Creating the output fluctuation pattern based on the fluctuation output prediction value,
The power generation plan determination system according to any one of claims 1 to 5. Computer
Based on a demand forecast value in a power system facility in which a plurality of renewable energy power sources and a plurality of generators are connected, and an output forecast value that is a forecast value of the amount of power output by the renewable energy power source, Determine the power generation demand forecast value, which is the forecast value of the amount of power required for the generator,
Based on the determined power generation demand prediction value, determine the initial power generation plan of the generator,
Based on a plurality of fluctuation output prediction value that the output prediction value and the occurrence probability are different from each other, create a plurality of output fluctuation patterns of the output prediction value,
Based on the information about the expected accident and the plurality of output fluctuation patterns created, derive the transient stability of the power system equipment predicted after the expected accident,
Based on the derived transient stability, determine an optimal power generation plan that can maintain the transient stability in the output fluctuation pattern,
Power generation plan decision method. On the computer,
Based on a demand forecast value in a power system facility in which a plurality of renewable energy power sources and a plurality of generators are connected, and an output forecast value that is a forecast value of the amount of power output by the renewable energy power source, Let the power generation demand forecast value, which is the forecast value of the amount of power required for the generator, be determined,
Based on the determined power generation demand forecast value, to determine the initial power generation plan of the generator,
Based on a plurality of variable output prediction value that the output prediction value and the occurrence probability are different from each other, a plurality of output fluctuation patterns of the output prediction value are created,
Based on the information about the expected accident and the plurality of created output fluctuation patterns, the transient stability of the power system equipment predicted after the expected accident is derived,
Based on the derived transient stability, to determine an optimal power generation plan that can maintain the transient stability in the output fluctuation pattern,
program. Based on the planned value of the demand of the retailer in the power system equipment in which a plurality of renewable energy power sources and a plurality of generators are connected, and the power generation plan value of the power producer, An initial adjustment force plan determination unit that determines an initial value,
An output fluctuation pattern creating unit that creates a plurality of output fluctuation patterns of the output predicted value based on a plurality of fluctuation output predicted values having different output predicted values and occurrence probabilities of the renewable energy power source,
Deriving the transient stability of the power system equipment predicted after the supposed accident based on the information about the supposed accident and the plurality of output fluctuation patterns created by the output fluctuation pattern creating unit. An optimum adjusting force plan determining unit that determines an adjusting force plan capable of maintaining the transient stability in the output fluctuation pattern based on the derived transient stability.
A power generation plan determination system including.

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