JP2020052549A - Power-receiving point power prediction device, power-receiving point power prediction method and program - Google Patents

Abstract

To provide a power-receiving point power prediction device, a power-receiving point power prediction method and a program which accurately predict an electric energy at a power-receiving point.SOLUTION: The power-receiving point power prediction device sums up a predictive value of an electric energy consumed by a user and a predictive value of an electric energy generated by a solar cell module to calculate a predictive value of a power-receiving point electric energy being an electric energy at a power-receiving point of the user. A power-point receiving point electric energy and a generated electric energy are acquired and stored, and the generated electric energy is subtracted from the stored power-receiving point electric energy to calculate a consumed electric energy, and the consumed electric energy is used to calculate a predictive value of a consumed electric energy.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 3

Description

  The present invention relates to a power receiving point power prediction device that predicts the amount of power at a power receiving point of a customer.

  Demand response has attracted attention as an effort to balance power supply and demand. Demand response is used to change the power consumption pattern so as to suppress the use of power when the demand for power increases and there is no room for supply. For example, the power consumption pattern is changed so as to encourage the use of the device. For example, when receiving a demand response instruction to reduce consumption from a power company or a grid operation organization, the consumer self-consumes the power stored in the storage battery in response to the request.

  In addition, a VPP (Virtual Power Plant) integrates and controls small and scattered energy resources to function as if they are a single power plant. By utilizing the VPP, it is possible for a power company to buy or trade on the market, assuming that the power consumer has reduced the power consumption by power saving or private power generation. Such an action is performed by, for example, a demand response. Note that the amount of power consumption reduced by power saving and private power generation in the consumer is normally controlled by a demand response instruction calculated based on the value of a power meter installed at the power receiving point.

  Patent Literature 1 describes that an expected value of negawatt, which is an amount of power that can be saved in response to a power saving request, is calculated based on past power demand results in a power consumer participating in demand response.

JP 2018-112796 A (published on July 19, 2018)

  However, when the power consumer is generating power using the photovoltaic power generation system, the amount of generated power is included in the past power demand measured by the power meter installed at the power receiving point. Since the amount of power generated by the solar power generation system depends on, for example, weather, etc., the technology described in Patent Literature 1 is applied to a customer who has already introduced the solar power generation system, and expectations for the negawatts in the customer are obtained. There was a problem that it was difficult to calculate the value appropriately. In other words, the past power demand record includes two variable elements, that is, the power consumption amount that changes based on the lifestyle pattern of the customer and the generated power amount that changes due to the weather and the like. There was a problem that it was not possible to calculate an appropriate expected value of negawatt in consideration of both of the two variables using the technique described.

  One aspect of the present invention has been made in view of the above-described problem, and provides a power receiving point power prediction device and the like that accurately predicts a power amount at a power receiving point, which serves as a reference for calculating a negawatt in a demand response. With the goal.

  In order to solve the above problem, the power receiving point power prediction device according to one embodiment of the present invention, the predicted value of the power consumption of the consumer, the sum of the predicted value of the power generated by the solar cell module, This is a configuration for calculating a predicted value of a power receiving point power amount which is a power amount at a power receiving point of a customer.

  The power receiving point power prediction method according to one aspect of the present invention is a method of summing a predicted value of power consumption of a consumer and a predicted value of power generated by a solar cell module, and calculating an amount of power at the power receiving point of the customer. This is a method of calculating a predicted value of a certain power receiving point power amount.

  Advantageous Effects of Invention According to one embodiment of the present invention, there is an effect that a power receiving point power amount can be accurately predicted.

It is a block diagram showing an example of the important section composition of the electric power system concerning Embodiment 1 of the present invention. It is a schematic diagram which shows the outline | summary of the consumer who introduced the electric power system which concerns on Embodiment 1 of this invention. It is a flowchart which shows an example of the flow of a process which the receiving point electric power prediction apparatus which concerns on Embodiment 1 of this invention performs.

[Embodiment 1]
Hereinafter, an embodiment of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to FIGS.

(Configuration of power system)
First, the power system 200 will be described. FIG. 2 is a block diagram illustrating a configuration of the power system 200 according to the present embodiment. In FIG. 2, signal lines are shown by solid lines, and power lines are shown by broken lines, with respect to wiring connecting each part.

  As shown in FIG. 2, the power system 200 includes a control device 2, a solar cell module 3 (power generation device), a storage battery 4, a power conditioner 5, a distribution board 6, a router 7, and a terminal device 8. And a smart meter 9. The control device 2, the solar cell module 3, and the distribution board 6 are provided in a building having a power demand such as a general house. The storage battery 4, the power conditioner 5, and the smart meter 9 are provided outdoors. However, the storage battery 4 and the power conditioner 5 may be provided in a building.

  The power system 200 is a system that predicts the amount of power at a power receiving point P, which is a property dividing point between the grid power network 10 and a customer, which is a reference for calculating negawatts in demand response. The predicted amount of power is used to create a baseline representing the fluctuation of the power demand amount in a predetermined time zone corresponding to time when no demand response is requested from the server 1. The power system 200 may transmit the predicted amount of power to the server 1.

  In a normal operation, the storage battery 4 is a battery that stores the power output from the solar cell module 3, discharges the power as needed, and outputs the power to the power conditioner 5.

  The power conditioner 5 controls the operating voltage of the solar cell module 3 so that the generated power of the solar cell module 3 is always maximized, and converts DC power output from the solar cell module 3 or the storage battery 4 into AC power. To the distribution board 6. In addition, the power conditioner 5 subtracts the power stored in the storage battery 4 and the power supplied to the load (the device 102 shown in FIG. 1) connected to the distribution board 6 from the generated power of the solar cell module 3 to generate a remaining surplus. The power is caused to flow backward to the grid power network 10. When the power supplied from the solar cell module 3 to the load is small, the power is discharged to the storage battery 4 and control is performed so that the amount of purchased power purchased from the power company via the system power network 10 is reduced as much as possible.

  The power conditioner 5 measures the amount of power generated by the solar cell module 3, the amount of charge power charged by the storage battery 4, and the amount of discharge power discharged by the storage battery 4. In addition, the power conditioner 5 measures the power when the solar cell module 3 generates power (power generation), the power when charging the storage battery 4 (charging power), and the power when discharging the storage battery 4 (discharge power). I do.

  The distribution board 6 is a device that branches AC power from the power conditioner 5 or the system power network 10 to an outlet provided in a building, and has various breakers. The distribution board 6 supplies AC power to the equipment 102 provided in the building via an outlet.

  The router 7 is a broadband router that relays LAN communication with the terminal device 8 existing in the building. The router 7 is connected to the control device 2 via a LAN cable, and performs wired LAN communication with the control device 2. The router 7 is connected to the network 100 (Internet).

  The control device 2 is a device having a HEMS (Home Energy Management System) control function. Specifically, the control device 2 is a device having functions such as aggregating information on energy (electric power) consumed in a building and unifying operations of various devices 102 such as home appliances. The control device 2 collects power amount information from the smart meter 9 and provides the information to the server 1 (see FIG. 1) described later. Further, the control device 2 transmits various information to the terminal device 8 by performing wired or wireless LAN communication with the terminal device 8 in the building via the router 7. The control device 2 uploads the power information to the server 1 via the network 100.

  Further, the control device 2 functions as a power receiving point power prediction device that predicts a power amount at a power receiving point of the customer in which the power system 200 is introduced, and can calculate a predicted value of the power receiving point power amount. The control device 2 can upload the calculated predicted value to the server 1. Further, the prediction of the power receiving point power amount may be performed on the server 1 side. In this case, the control device 2 transmits various data necessary for the prediction to the server 1, and the server 1 calculates the predicted value of the power consumption at the power receiving point using the received various data.

  The terminal device 8 is a device having a communication function and a display function of a LAN or a public wireless network. The terminal device 8 may be a portable device such as a smartphone, a tablet terminal, or a notebook computer, or may be a fixed device attached to a wall or the like.

  The smart meter 9 has an electric power amount (purchased electric power amount) to be purchased from the electric power company 101 (see FIG. 1) through the grid power network 10 for use in the building, and an electric power amount to be sold to the electric power company 101 (power sold electric power). This is a device for digitally measuring force. In other words, the smart meter 9 can acquire the power amount at the power receiving point P between the customer and the grid power network 10. The smart meter 9 also measures the instantaneous power of purchased power (purchased power) and the instantaneous power of sold power (power sold) required to create the power supply and demand screen. Since the smart meter 9 has a communication function, it can transmit power amount data measured by communicating with the outside. For this reason, the smart meter 9 is connected to the distribution board 6 and the system power network 10 via power lines.

(Configuration of power system)
FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a configuration of the power system 200.

  As shown in FIG. 1, the power system 200 includes a server 1 (aggregation server) and a control device 2.

  Based on the demand response (hereinafter, referred to as DR) received from the power company 101, the server 1 is connected to a plurality of customers who have contracted a negawatt transaction or a plurality of customers who have contracted to participate in VPP. It functions as an aggregation server that issues a DR command to the group. That is, the customer provided with the control device 2 can suppress the power receiving point power amount based on an instruction (DR instruction) from the external server 1.

  Note that the server 1 may be operated by an aggregator, or may be operated by a HEMS server in cooperation with the aggregator. Further, the server 1 may be operated by the electric power company 101 alone, or may be operated by the electric power company 101 also serving as an aggregator, or the cooperating electric power company 101, an aggregator, and a HEMS server.

  Although only one control device 2 is shown in FIG. 1 for convenience, it is provided for each customer. The control device 2 includes a network communication unit 21, a smart meter communication unit 22, a power conditioner communication unit 23, a data collection unit 24, a DR control unit 25, a storage unit 26, a power consumption calculation unit 27, , A power receiving point power amount prediction unit 28. When the server 1 predicts the power consumption at the receiving point, the server 1 preferably includes the storage unit 26, the power consumption calculating unit 27, and the power point predicting unit 28.

  Further, in FIG. 1, for convenience, the control device 2 is not illustrated to include the above-described HEMS control function part, but is illustrated to include the DR control function part.

  The network communication unit 21 is a part that communicates with the server 1 via the network 100. The network communication unit 21 is connected to the network 100 via the router 7.

  The smart meter communication unit 22 communicates with the smart meter 9 to transmit data and power (power sold and purchased) of various power amounts (power sold and purchased power) including the power received from the smart meter 9. ), And outputs the data to the data collection unit 24.

  The power conditioner communication unit 23 communicates with the power conditioner 5. The power conditioner communication unit 23 receives the data of the generated power amount, the charged power amount, the discharged power amount, the generated power, the charged power, and the discharged power measured by the power conditioner 5 and outputs the data to the data collection unit 24. I do.

  The data collection unit 24 collects the data of each power amount and each power via the smart meter communication unit 22 and the power conditioner communication unit 23, and collects and accumulates (stores) the data in the storage unit 26. According to the illustrated example, the data collection unit 24 collects the power receiving point power amount, which is the power amount at the power receiving point P, from the smart meter 9, the power generation amount by the solar cell module 3 from the power conditioner 5, and the storage battery 4. Discharge power amount can be collected. The data collection unit 24 can collect and accumulate (store) the DR command acquired from the server 1 in the storage unit 26. The timing at which the data collection unit 24 collects each data is not particularly limited, but may be regular (for example, every 30 minutes).

  The DR control unit 25 sends a control instruction to the storage battery 4 and the solar cell module 3 to the power conditioner 5 via the power conditioner communication unit 23 based on the DR command acquired from the server 1 via the network communication unit 21. Give to. Further, the DR control unit 25 gives a control instruction to the device 102 to the device 102 via the network communication unit 21 and the router 7 based on the DR command acquired via the network communication unit 21. The device 102 is a device having a network communication function, such as an air conditioner, a lighting device, and a television, which can be controlled from the outside. At least one device 102 is connected to the router 7. That is, the control device 2 can transmit a control instruction to the device 102 in order to suppress the power receiving point power amount based on the instruction from the server 1.

  The power consumption calculation unit 27 acquires the history of the power reception point power amount and the like from the storage unit 26, and calculates (generates) the actual value of the power consumption amount in the consumer using the acquired various histories. A specific example in which the power consumption calculator 27 calculates the actual value of the power consumption will be described later.

  The power receiving point power amount predicting unit 28 calculates a predicted value of the power receiving point power amount using the actual value of the power consumption amount calculated by the power consumption amount calculating unit 27 and the like. A specific example in which the power receiving point power amount prediction unit 28 calculates the predicted value of the power receiving point power amount will be described later.

(Operation of the power consumption calculator)
A specific example of the operation in which the power consumption calculator 27 calculates the actual value of the power consumption will be described. In the following description, the storage unit 26 stores, in the storage unit 26, a history of the amount of power received, a history of the amount of power generated by the solar cell module 3, a history of the amount of power charged by the storage battery 4, and the amount of power discharged by the storage battery 4. It is assumed that the history and the history of the DR command are stored.

  The power consumption calculation unit 27 acquires various histories from the storage unit 26. Then, the actual value of the power consumption at the power receiving point P is calculated by subtracting the generated power amount from the accumulated power amount at the power receiving point. At this time, if the storage battery 4 is discharging, the amount of discharge power may be added, and if the storage battery 4 is charging, the result obtained by further subtracting the amount of charge power may be calculated as the actual value of the power consumption. Further, if the power receiving point power amount is suppressed based on the DR command, the power consumption amount at the power receiving point P may be calculated by subtracting the generated power amount from the power receiving point power amount and further adding the suppression amount. Good. In other words, by performing a correction for adding the suppression amount to the power receiving point power amount, the power consumption amount assumed when the suppression is not performed may be calculated.

  The actual value of the power consumption calculated in this manner is a net value for the consumer that is not dependent on the power generation status of the solar cell module 3, the charging / discharging status of the storage battery 4, and the power receiving point power consumption suppression status based on the DR command. 5 is a history of the power consumption of the power supply. Therefore, when the actual value of the power consumption is calculated for each acquisition time of the history, it is possible to grasp the change over time of the power consumption.

(Operation of the power receiving point power estimation unit)
A specific example of the operation in which the power receiving point power amount prediction unit 28 calculates the predicted value of the power receiving point power amount will be described. In the following description, the storage unit 26 stores, in the storage unit 26, a history of the amount of power received, a history of the amount of power generated by the solar cell module 3, a history of the amount of power charged by the storage battery 4, and the amount of power discharged by the storage battery 4. It is assumed that the history and the history of the DR command are stored. It is also assumed that the power consumption calculation unit 27 has already calculated the actual value of the power consumption.

  First, the power receiving point power amount prediction unit 28 calculates a predicted value of the power consumption using the actual value of the power consumption calculated by the power consumption calculation unit 27. The predicted value of the power consumption can be calculated by a known method based on, for example, a power consumption pattern or the like in the customer.

  Next, the power receiving point power amount prediction unit 28 calculates a predicted value of the generated power amount. The predicted value of the generated power amount can be calculated by a known method based on information such as a history of the generated power amount, calendar information and weather forecast acquired via the network 100, and the like.

  Thereafter, the power receiving point power amount prediction unit 28 calculates the power receiving point power predicted value by adding the predicted value of the power consumption amount and the predicted value of the generated power amount.

  The predicted value of the receiving point power calculated in this way is a predicted value in consideration of a plurality of factors that can change the receiving point power, such as the power consumption pattern of the customer and the influence of the weather.

(Processing flow)
In the present embodiment, a flow of processing executed by the control device 2 will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 3 is a flowchart illustrating an example of the flow of a process executed by the control device 2.

  First, the power consumption calculating unit 27 determines whether or not any of the past history of the power receiving point power amounts stored in the storage unit 26 has the power receiving point power amount suppressed based on the DR command. Is determined (S1). When it is determined that there is a history in which the power receiving point power amount is suppressed (YES in S1), the power consumption calculation unit 27 performs correction by adding the suppression amount to the history (S2). Thereafter, the process proceeds to S3. On the other hand, when it is determined that there is no history in which the power receiving point power amount has been suppressed (NO in S1), the process proceeds directly to S3.

  In S3, the power consumption calculation unit 27 acquires the history of the power receiving point power amount and the like from the storage unit 26, and calculates the past power consumption amount using the acquired various histories (S3). Thereafter, the power receiving point power amount prediction unit 28 calculates a predicted value of the power consumption using the past power consumption calculated in S3 (S4). The power receiving point power amount prediction unit 28 further calculates a predicted value of the generated power amount (S5).

  After S5, the power receiving point power amount prediction unit 28 calculates the predicted value of the power receiving point power amount by adding the predicted value of the power consumption amount calculated in S4 and the predicted value of the generated power amount calculated in S5. (S6).

  Through the above processing, the control device 2 according to the present embodiment can accurately predict the electric energy at the power receiving point, which is a reference for calculating the negawatt in the demand response.

(Modification)
In the first embodiment, the control device 2 functions as a power receiving point power amount prediction device, but another device may have a function as a power receiving point power amount prediction device. For example, the server 1 or the terminal device 8 may acquire various information via the router 7 and calculate the predicted value of the power receiving point power amount at the power receiving point P.

[Example of software implementation]
The control blocks (particularly, the power consumption calculation unit 27 and the power reception point prediction unit 28) of the power receiving point power prediction device 2 may be realized by a logic circuit (hardware) formed on an integrated circuit (IC chip) or the like. It may be realized by software.

  In the latter case, the power receiving point power prediction device 2 includes a computer that executes instructions of a program that is software for realizing each function. This computer includes, for example, at least one processor (control device) and at least one computer-readable recording medium storing the program. Then, in the computer, the object of the present invention is achieved when the processor reads the program from the recording medium and executes the program. As the processor, for example, a CPU (Central Processing Unit) can be used. As the recording medium, a "temporary tangible medium" such as a ROM (Read Only Memory), a tape, a disk, a card, a semiconductor memory, a programmable logic circuit, or the like can be used. Further, a random access memory (RAM) for expanding the program may be further provided. Further, the program may be supplied to the computer via an arbitrary transmission medium (a communication network, a broadcast wave, or the like) capable of transmitting the program. One embodiment of the present invention can also be realized in the form of a data signal embedded in a carrier wave, in which the program is embodied by electronic transmission.

[Summary]
The power receiving point power prediction device according to the first aspect of the present invention adds the predicted value of the power consumption of the customer and the predicted value of the power generated by the solar cell module, and calculates the power amount at the power receiving point of the customer. This is a configuration for calculating a predicted value of a certain power receiving point power amount.

  According to the above configuration, the power receiving point power prediction device sums the predicted values individually predicted with the power consumption amount that changes according to the user's life pattern and the like, and the generated power amount that changes depending on, for example, time zone and weather, It is possible to calculate a predicted value of the power receiving point electric energy. This makes it possible to accurately predict the power amount at the receiving point.

  The power receiving point power prediction device according to an aspect 2 of the present invention, in the aspect 1, acquires and accumulates the power receiving point power amount and the generated power amount, and calculates the generated power amount from the accumulated power receiving point power amount. The power consumption may be calculated by subtraction, and the predicted value of the power consumption may be calculated using the power consumption.

  According to the configuration, the power receiving point power prediction device can obtain the power consumption amount by subtracting the generated power amount from the power receiving point power amount without acquiring and accumulating the power consumption amount.

  The power receiving point power prediction device according to an aspect 3 of the present invention according to the aspect 1 or 2, acquires and accumulates a charging power amount of the storage battery, subtracts the generated power amount from the accumulated power receiving point power amount, The power consumption may be calculated by adding the charging power. According to the above configuration, the power receiving point power prediction device can predict the power receiving point power amount with higher accuracy in consideration of the charging power amount of the storage battery.

  The power receiving point power prediction device according to an aspect 4 of the present invention, in any one of the aspects 1 to 3, acquires and accumulates a discharge power amount of a storage battery, and subtracts the generated power amount from the accumulated power point power amount. Alternatively, the power consumption may be calculated by adding the discharge power. According to the configuration, the power receiving point power prediction device can predict the power receiving point power amount with higher accuracy in consideration of the discharge power amount of the storage battery.

  The power receiving point power prediction device according to an aspect 5 of the present invention, in any one of the aspects 1 to 4, wherein the customer can suppress the power receiving point power amount based on an instruction from an external aggregation server. The power consumption may be calculated by acquiring and accumulating the suppression amount of the power receiving point power amount, subtracting the generated power amount from the accumulated power receiving point power amount, and further adding the suppression amount. According to the configuration described above, the power receiving point power prediction device can predict the power receiving point power amount excluding the suppression when the past history includes the power receiving point power amount suppression.

  The power receiving point power prediction method according to the sixth aspect of the present invention includes adding the predicted value of the power consumption of the customer and the predicted value of the power generated by the solar cell module to obtain the power amount at the power receiving point of the customer. This is a method of calculating a predicted value of a certain power receiving point power amount. According to the configuration, the same operation and effect as those of the first aspect are exerted.

  The power receiving point power prediction device 2 according to each aspect of the present invention may be realized by a computer. In this case, the computer is operated as each unit (software element) included in the power receiving point power prediction device 2, and A control program for the power receiving point power prediction device 2 for realizing the power receiving point power prediction device 2 by a computer, and a computer-readable recording medium that records the program are also included in the scope of the present invention.

  The present invention is not limited to the embodiments described above, and various modifications are possible within the scope shown in the claims, and embodiments obtained by appropriately combining technical means disclosed in different embodiments. Is also included in the technical scope of the present invention. Furthermore, new technical features can be formed by combining the technical means disclosed in each embodiment.

200 power system 1 server (aggregation server)
2 control device (power receiving point power prediction device)
27 power consumption calculation unit 28 power receiving point power amount prediction unit 3 solar cell module 4 storage battery 8 terminal device 102 device

Claims (7)

The predicted value of the power consumption of the customer and the predicted value of the power generated by the solar cell module are added together to calculate a predicted value of the power consumption at the power receiving point of the customer. Power receiving point prediction device. Acquire and accumulate the power receiving point power amount and the generated power amount,
The power consumption is calculated by subtracting the generated power from the accumulated power at the receiving point,
The power receiving point power prediction device according to claim 1, wherein a predicted value of the power consumption is calculated using the power consumption. Acquires and accumulates the amount of charging power of the storage battery,
The power receiving point power estimation according to claim 1, wherein the power consumption amount is calculated by subtracting the generated power amount from the stored power receiving point power amount and further adding the charging power amount. apparatus. Acquire and accumulate the discharge power of the storage battery,
The power consumption is calculated by subtracting the generated power from the accumulated power at the receiving point, and further subtracting the discharge power. Power point prediction device. The customer can suppress the power receiving point power amount based on an instruction from an external aggregation server,
Acquire and accumulate the suppression amount of the power receiving point power amount,
The power consumption amount is calculated by subtracting the generated power amount from the stored power receiving point power amount and further adding the suppression amount. Receiving point power prediction device. The predicted value of the power consumption of the customer and the predicted value of the power generated by the solar cell module are added together to calculate a predicted value of the power consumption at the power receiving point of the customer. Receiving point power prediction method.   A program for causing a computer to function as the power receiving point power prediction device according to any one of claims 1 to 4, wherein the program causes a computer to function as each of the units.

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