JP2020004164A - Photovoltaic power generation output estimation device and output estimation method - Google Patents

Abstract

To estimate an actual load of a surplus purchase contract in which a photovoltaic power generation facility is installed and an amount of power generation of the photovoltaic power generation facility, based on measurement data measured by a measurement device such as a smart meter.SOLUTION: A photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 10 has: a measurement data storage part which records a measured amount of power as measurement data; a system information storage part which stores system information on a power distribution system; a clustering processing part which clusters the measurement data under a predetermined condition; a load curve storage part which records an average load curve per user where the clustered photovoltaic power generation facility is not installed; a power sales and purchase storage part which records power sales data and power purchase data of the surplus purchase contract where the clustered photovoltaic power generation facility is installed; and an actual load and photovoltaic power generation output estimation part which estimates the average load curve as a load curve of the surplus purchase contract and estimates an actual load of the surplus purchase contract and the amount of power generation of the photovoltaic power generation facility through use of the load curve, the power sales data, and the power purchase data.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 3

Description

  The present invention relates to a photovoltaic power output estimation device and an output estimation method.

  2. Description of the Related Art In recent years, with the spread of photovoltaic power generation in power distribution systems, the number of consumers who install photovoltaic power generation facilities and supply power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facilities to the power distribution system is increasing. On the other hand, the introduction of measuring devices, such as smart meters, has made it possible to grasp detailed power consumption trends per customer.

  Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2018-7370 (Patent Document 1) discloses such a background art in the present technical field. In this publication, the power generation amount of the solar power generation facility for each installer of the solar power generation facility and the amount of solar radiation at the installation location of the solar power generation facility for each installer are acquired, and the power generation amount and the amount of solar radiation are used. Further, there is described a photovoltaic power generation output estimating apparatus for estimating a relational expression between a power generation amount of a photovoltaic power generation facility and a solar radiation amount.

JP 2018-7370A

  Patent Literature 1 discloses a photovoltaic power generation output estimating device that estimates a relational expression between a power generation amount of a photovoltaic power generation facility and a solar radiation amount. However, the photovoltaic power output estimating device of Patent Literature 1 needs to measure the amount of solar radiation at each installation location of the photovoltaic power generation facility in order to estimate the photovoltaic power output. The amount of solar radiation is measured by a pyranometer, and the measurement data of the pyranometer is managed by a management system. Therefore, a pyranometer and a management system are required.

  Therefore, the present invention estimates the actual load of a customer in a surplus purchase contract in which a photovoltaic power generation facility is installed and the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation facility based on measurement data measured by a measuring device such as a smart meter. The present invention provides a photovoltaic power output estimating apparatus and an output estimating method that can perform the above.

  In order to solve the above problem, a photovoltaic power generation output estimation device of the present invention includes a measurement data storage unit that records, as measurement data, a customer's power amount measured by a measurement device, and system information of a power distribution system. A system information storage unit for storing as system data, a clustering processing unit for clustering measurement data under predetermined conditions, and a customer who does not have a photovoltaic power generation facility clustered by the clustering processing unit. A load curve storage unit that records the average load curve, and a power sale / buy that records the power sale data and the power purchase data of the customer of the surplus purchase contract in which the solar power generation facilities clustered by the clustering processing unit are installed. The power data storage unit and the average load curve are estimated as the load curve of the customer of the surplus purchase contract, and the estimated load curve and the power sales data are estimated. It has a real load and solar power generation output estimation unit for estimating the power generation amount of consumers who actual load and solar power generation equipment surplus purchase agreement, the use of a motor and a power purchase data.

  Further, the photovoltaic power generation output estimating method of the present invention includes a step of recording the power amount of the customer measured by the measuring device as measurement data; a step of clustering the measurement data under predetermined conditions; The process of recording the average load curve per customer who does not have a power generation facility, and the power sales data and the power purchase data of a customer with a surplus purchase contract that has clustered solar power generation facilities And the average load curve is estimated as the load curve of the customer of the surplus purchase contract, and the actual load of the customer of the surplus purchase contract is estimated using the estimated load curve, the power sales data and the power purchase data. And a step of estimating a power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation facility.

  According to the present invention, based on measurement data measured by a measuring device such as a smart meter, an actual load of a customer of a surplus purchase contract in which a photovoltaic power generation facility is installed and a power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation facility are estimated. It is possible to provide a photovoltaic power output estimating device and an output estimating method that can perform the above.

  Problems, configurations, and effects other than those described above will be apparent from the following description of the embodiments.

It is a schematic diagram showing the distribution system provided with the photovoltaic power generation output estimating device by this example. It is explanatory drawing which shows the load curve by this Example typically. FIG. 4 is an explanatory diagram schematically showing power selling data according to the embodiment. FIG. 4 is an explanatory diagram schematically showing power purchase data according to the embodiment. It is a block diagram showing a photovoltaic power generation output estimating device according to the present embodiment. It is a flowchart figure which shows the algorithm which estimates the actual load / photovoltaic power generation output value by taking into account night correction by this Example. FIG. 5 is an explanatory diagram illustrating nighttime correction according to the embodiment.

  Hereinafter, embodiments will be described with reference to the drawings.

  FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram illustrating a power distribution system including the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device according to the present embodiment.

  A customer 140 having no photovoltaic power generation facility and a customer 150 having a photovoltaic power generation facility 160 are connected to the distribution system 100. The measurement data from the customer 140 and the customer 150 is input to the photovoltaic power output estimating device 10 via the communication network 200.

  The power distribution system 100 includes a distribution substation 110, a feeder breaker 120, a switch 130, and a columnar transformer 210.

  The power transmitted from the distribution substation 110 is finally passed through the feeder breaker 120, the switch 130, and the columnar transformer 210, and finally to the customer 140 or the solar power generation facility 160 without the solar power generation facility. Is installed, and the power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 160 is self-consumed, and the remaining self-consumed power is supplied to the customer 150 in a surplus purchase contract for supplying the power system 100. In addition, the surplus purchase contract means that, of the power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 160 installed in the customer 150, the remaining power (surplus power) consumed by the customer 150 is purchased by a power company. It is a contract to get.

  The customer 140 is provided with a load data measurement device 170 that records the amount of power supplied from the power distribution system 100 to the customer 140. The customer 150 includes a power sale data measuring device 180 that records the amount of power supplied from the customer 150 to the distribution system 100 and a power purchase data measurement device that records the amount of power supplied to the customer 150 from the distribution system 100. The device 190 is installed.

  That is, the load data measurement device 170 records the amount of power consumed by the customer 140. The power selling data measuring device 180 records the remaining amount of power consumed by the customer 150 (the amount of power purchased by the power company). Since the power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 160 (power generation) is insufficient, the power supplied from the power distribution system 100 is recorded.

  Note that a plurality of distribution lines 220 are formed in the distribution system 100. A plurality of switches 130 are installed on one distribution line 220. A plurality of columnar transformers 210 are provided between the two switches 130. A plurality of customers are connected to one pole transformer 210.

  Further, in the present embodiment, the load data measuring device 170, the power selling data measuring device 180, and the power buying data measuring device 190 are smart meters installed in each customer, and can measure the amount of power digitally. It is a power measuring device having a communication function inside. These measuring devices can measure and transmit the electric energy at predetermined intervals of several minutes to several tens of minutes.

  FIG. 2A is an explanatory diagram schematically illustrating a load curve according to the present embodiment.

  The load curve 171 is measurement data (load data) measured by the load data measurement device 170 in FIG. 1, and indicates the amount of power supplied from the distribution system 100 to the customer 140 without a photovoltaic power generation facility. ing.

  FIG. 2B is an explanatory diagram schematically illustrating the power sale data according to the present embodiment.

  The power sale data 181 is measurement data (power sale data) measured by the power sale data measurement device 180 of FIG. 1 and indicates the amount of power supplied from the surplus purchase contract customer 150 to the power distribution system 100. . That is, in the present embodiment, from about 9 o'clock to about 16 o'clock, of the power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facilities 160 installed in the (Surplus power) is purchased by the power company.

  FIG. 2C is an explanatory diagram schematically illustrating the power purchase data according to the present embodiment.

  The power purchase data 191 is measurement data (power purchase data) measured by the power purchase data measurement device 190 in FIG. 1 and indicates the amount of power supplied from the power distribution system 100 to the customer 150 of the surplus purchase contract. . That is, the power purchase data 191 indicates the amount of power purchased by the customer 150 in the surplus purchase contract from the power company.

  FIG. 3 is a configuration diagram illustrating the photovoltaic power output estimation device according to the present embodiment.

  In the present embodiment, the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 10 is connected to a load data measurement device 170, a power sale data measurement device 180, and a power purchase data measurement device 190 via a communication network 200.

  The photovoltaic power output estimation device 10 includes a measurement data storage unit 11, a load curve storage unit 12, a power sale / purchase data storage unit 13, a system information storage unit 14, an estimation data storage unit 15, a clustering process, A unit 21 and an actual load / photovoltaic power output estimating unit 22 are provided.

  The measurement data storage unit 11 accumulates and stores information on measurement data of electric energy obtained from the load data measurement device 170, the power sale data measurement device 180, and the power purchase data measurement device 190. In other words, the measurement data storage unit 11 records the electric energy of the customer measured by these measurement devices (170, 180, 190) as measurement data.

  The clustering processing unit 21 clusters the information of the load data measurement device 170 recorded in the measurement data storage unit 11 under predetermined conditions (region, period, contract type, contract capacity, and the like). Then, by calculating the average value of the clustered customers of the same class, an average load curve per customer of the same class is calculated.

  Then, the load curve storage unit 12 accumulates and stores the average load curve per customer of the customers 140 in which the photovoltaic power generation facilities clustered by the clustering processing unit 21 are not installed.

  The average load curve recorded in the load curve storage unit 12 may be, for example, an average value calculated for a certain region, a certain contract type, and a certain contract capacity for one month, that is, for all customers of the same class. . Further, an average value of a certain customer for n days may be calculated.

  Further, for example, the region may be a prefecture or a city, and may be a range of customers connected to one distribution line, a range of customers connected between two switches, and one pillar. It may be a range of consumers connected to the upper transformer. The period may be several days, or may be several months longer than one month. The contract type is the content of a power purchase contract with a power company. The contract capacity is a current value when a consumer contracts with a power company. Further, the clustering used here means to classify for each of such predetermined conditions. Therefore, the same class is a set of consumers classified according to the same condition.

  Further, the clustering processing unit 21 converts the information of the power sale data measuring device 180 and the power purchase data measuring device 190 recorded in the measurement data storage unit 11 into predetermined conditions (region, period, contract type, contract capacity, etc.). Cluster with.

  Then, the power sales data and the power purchase data of the customer 150 of the surplus purchase contract in which the photovoltaic power generation facilities 160 clustered by the clustering processing unit 21 are installed are stored in the power sales / power purchase data storage unit 13, Remember.

  The system information storage unit 14 stores system information of the power distribution system 100 as system data. The system information is information on the installation position, the number of installations of distribution lines, switches, pole transformers, etc., the number of connected customers, etc., and such information is system data. .

  In other words, the clustering processing unit 21 analyzes the measurement data of the customer 140 without the photovoltaic power generation facilities and the measurement data of the surplus purchase contract customer 150 with the photovoltaic power generation facilities 160 installed. And a part to be analyzed.

  Then, the part for analyzing the measurement data of the customer 140 in which the photovoltaic power generation facility is not installed is clustered by the period, the region, the contract type, and the contract capacity, and the average value is calculated by calculating the average value. Calculate the load curve. In addition, the part that analyzes the measurement data of the customer 150 of the surplus purchase contract in which the photovoltaic power generation facility 160 is installed is clustered by period, region, contract type, and contract capacity.

  The actual load / photovoltaic power output estimating unit 22 uses the average load curve stored in the load curve storage unit 12 so that the actual load of the customer 150 in the surplus purchase contract is the same region, the same contract type, and the same contract. It is estimated that the capacity, that is, the average load curve per customer of the customers 140 who do not have the same class of photovoltaic power generation facilities is similar. That is, the actual load / photovoltaic power output estimating unit 22 estimates the average load curve as the load curve of the customer 150 of the surplus purchase contract (the actual load of the customer 150 of the surplus purchase contract).

  Further, the actual load / photovoltaic power output estimating unit 22 calculates the estimated load curve (the actual load estimated value of the customer 150 in the surplus purchase contract) and the power purchase / power purchase data storage unit 13. An estimated value of the photovoltaic power generation output is calculated using the power data and the power sale data. That is, the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation facility 160 installed in the customer 150 of the surplus purchase contract is estimated as the photovoltaic power generation output estimated value.

  Then, the actual load / photovoltaic power generation output estimating unit 22 calculates the actual load of the customer 150 of the estimated surplus purchase contract and the photovoltaic power generation facility 160 installed in the customer 150 of the estimated surplus purchase contract. The power generation amount is output as an actual load / photovoltaic power output estimation value, and the estimation data storage unit 15 accumulates and stores the actual load / photovoltaic power output estimation value.

  For example, the actual load / photovoltaic power output estimating unit 22 uses the system data in the system information storage unit 14 to set an arbitrary section (for example, a distribution line unit of the distribution system 100, a section unit between the two switches 130, In the installation unit of the pole transformer 210), the actual load / photovoltaic power output estimated value is totaled, the result is output, and the estimated actual load / photovoltaic power output estimated value is stored in the estimated data storage unit 15. Store and memorize.

  Note that the actual load / photovoltaic power output estimating unit 22 can also calculate the actual load of the customer 150 in the surplus purchase contract and the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation equipment 160 for each clustered class.

  That is, in the present embodiment, it is possible to estimate the actual load of the customer 150 of the surplus purchase contract at a predetermined point and the electric energy of the solar power generation facility 160 installed in the customer 150.

  In this embodiment, the average load curve (the average value of the actual load of the customer 140) of the customer 140 who does not have the photovoltaic power generation facility is A, and the surplus purchase contract in which the photovoltaic power generation facility 160 is installed. B, the actual load of the customer 150, the power generation amount of the solar power generation facility 160 installed in the customer 150 of the surplus purchase contract in which the solar power generation equipment 160 is installed, and the solar power generation equipment 160 installed. Assuming that D is the power sales data 181 of the customer 150 of the surplus purchase contract and E is the power purchase data 191 of the customer 150 of the surplus purchase contract having the photovoltaic power generation facility 160, B = C + DE. And B is estimated as A, and D and E are measurement data, so that C can be estimated.

  That is, as the method of estimating the photovoltaic power output in the present embodiment, a step of recording the power amount of the customer measured by the measuring device as the measurement data, a step of clustering the measurement data under predetermined conditions, The process of recording the average load curve per customer of a customer who does not have a photovoltaic power generation facility, and the power sales data and purchase of a customer with a surplus purchase contract that has installed a photovoltaic power generation facility that has been clustered. Recording power data, and estimating an average load curve as a load curve of a customer of the surplus purchase contract, and using the estimated load curve, the power sales data and the power purchase data to calculate the surplus purchase contract. Estimating the actual load of the customer and the amount of power generated by the solar power generation facility.

  FIG. 4 is a flowchart illustrating an algorithm for estimating the actual load / photovoltaic power generation output estimation value in consideration of nighttime correction according to the present embodiment.

  FIG. 4 shows an estimation procedure in the actual load / photovoltaic power output estimating unit 22 shown in FIG.

  First, in step S <b> 1, based on the system data in the system information storage unit 14, the selected customer (the customer 150 of the surplus purchase contract installing the photovoltaic power generation facility 160) determines the demand in the estimation target range. It is determined whether or not it is a house. That is, it is determined whether or not the selected customer is within the range in which the customer to be compared is set (within the range of the customer 140 without the photovoltaic power generation facilities for which the average load curve is calculated). I do. For example, whether the selected customer is connected to the same distribution line 220 as the customer who calculated the average load curve, whether the selected customer is connected between the same two switches 130, It is determined whether or not it is connected to the pole transformer 210.

  If it is within the estimation target range, the process proceeds to S2. If it is out of the estimation target range, this process is temporarily ended, and the process is performed again in the estimation target range.

  In step S2, the nighttime correction amount described later is determined from the clustered average load curve of the same class (estimated as the load curve of the customer 150 of the surplus purchase contract in which the solar power generation facility 160 is installed) and the power purchase data 191. calculate.

  In step S3, the actual load estimation value between the nighttime and daytime is calculated by multiplying the average load curve by the nighttime correction amount calculated in S2 (correction by the consumer 150 of the surplus purchase contract in which the solar power generation facility 160 is installed). Calculated actual load).

  In step S4, the self-consumption of the customer 150 is calculated using the estimated actual load value of the customer 150 in the surplus purchase contract and the power purchase data 191 calculated in S3. The self consumption is calculated by the following formula.

Self-consumption = estimated actual load-power purchase data Here, self-consumption is the amount of power (power generation) generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 160 installed in the customer 150 in the surplus purchase contract. Means the amount of power consumed by the customer 150 in the surplus purchase contract.

  In step S5, the estimated value of the photovoltaic power output of the customer 150 is calculated using the self-consumption and the power sales data of the customer 150 calculated in S4. The estimated value of the photovoltaic power output is calculated by the following equation.

In step S6, the estimated value of the actual load of the consumer and the estimated value of the photovoltaic power output within the estimation target range calculated in steps S2 to S5 are calculated for each estimation target range. The data is totaled and stored in the estimated data storage unit 15. Also, output to a display device as needed.

  FIG. 5 is an explanatory diagram illustrating nighttime correction according to the present embodiment.

  In the present embodiment, the load curve of the customer 150 of the surplus purchase contract in which the solar power generation facility 160 is installed is estimated using the average load curve of the customer 140 in which the same class solar power generation facility is not installed. are doing.

  However, since the photovoltaic power generation facility 160 does not generate power at night, the nighttime power purchase data 191 of the customer 150 in the surplus purchase contract becomes an actual load. Further, in the same class, the night part of the power purchase data 191 and the night part of the average load curve 172 show the same usage tendency and are considered to be similar. The nighttime correction is used by using the nighttime power amount) and the nighttime portion (nighttime power amount) of the average load curve 172 of the same class as the power purchase data 191. That is, the ratio of the sum of the respective electric power amounts is the nighttime correction amount, and is calculated by the following equation.

Night correction = Σ (night power of purchased data) / Σ (night power of average load curve)
In addition, the night time zone can be arbitrarily set by, for example, an administrator or an operator of the photovoltaic power output estimating device 10.

  That is, the total of the nighttime power amounts of the power purchase data 191 and the average load curve 172 of the same class is obtained, and the ratio is defined as the nighttime correction amount. Then, by multiplying the average load curve 172 by the nighttime correction amount, the actual load estimation value 173 of the customer 150 of the surplus purchase contract is calculated.

  Therefore, in the present embodiment, since the nighttime power purchase data of the customer 150 of the surplus purchase contract becomes the actual load, the power purchase data and the customer 140 who does not install the same class of photovoltaic power generation as the power purchase data. Is calculated as the nighttime correction amount. Then, the actual load of the customer 150 in the surplus purchase contract is estimated by multiplying the nighttime correction amount by the average load curve of the customer 140 without solar power generation. Then, by subtracting the power purchase data of the consumer 150 of the surplus purchase contract from the actual load estimated value, the self-consumption is calculated, and the self-consumption and the power sales data of the customer 150 of the surplus purchase contract are added up. , To estimate the amount of solar power.

  Note that the average load curve 172 is obtained from the load curve 171 shown in FIG. 2A.

  This enables more reliable estimation.

  According to the present embodiment, it is possible to estimate the actual load of the customer of the surplus purchase contract from the measurement data of the customer without the photovoltaic power generation equipment measured by the measuring device such as the smart meter. Further, it is possible to calculate the self-consumption amount of the customer of the surplus purchase contract from the estimated actual load, and to estimate the solar power generation amount of the customer of the surplus purchase contract.

  By clustering the measured data of customers without solar power generation facilities and customers with surplus purchase contracts by period, region, contract type, contract capacity, etc., the actual load and solar power generation of each class can be calculated. Can be estimated.

  In addition, it is possible to estimate the actual load of the customer of the surplus purchase contract and the amount of photovoltaic power generation without using the amount of solar radiation.

  In addition, by consolidating the actual load of customers in surplus purchase contracts and the amount of photovoltaic power generation, the actual load of surplus purchase contracts in switchgear sections and pole transformer units required for voltage management of the distribution system, etc. It becomes possible to grasp the amount of solar power generation.

  In addition, by using measurement data from a measuring device such as a smart meter, it is possible to grasp the actual load of the surplus purchase contract and the amount of photovoltaic power generation in real time. In other words, highly reliable measurement data can be grasped at the transmission interval (predetermined interval) of a measuring device such as a smart meter, so that a highly real-time and highly reliable power flow calculation can be performed.

  Note that the present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiment, and includes various modifications. For example, the above-described embodiments are described in detail for easy understanding of the present invention, and are not necessarily limited to those having all the described configurations.

10 photovoltaic power output estimating device 100 power distribution system
110 ... distribution substation,
120 ... feeder breaker,
130 ... Switch,
140 ... Consumer without solar power generation facilities,
150 ... Consumer of surplus purchase contract,
160 ... Solar power generation equipment,
170: load data measuring device,
180 ... power sales data measurement device,
190 ... power purchase data measuring device,
200 ... communication network,
210: pole transformer 220: distribution line

Claims (12)

A measurement data storage unit that records the electric energy of the customer measured by the measurement device as measurement data,
A system information storage unit that stores system information of a power distribution system as system data,
A clustering processing unit for clustering the measurement data under predetermined conditions;
A load curve storage unit that records an average load curve per customer of a customer in which the solar power generation facilities clustered by the clustering processing unit are not installed;
A power sale / power purchase data storage unit that records the power sale data and the power purchase data of the customer of the surplus purchase contract in which the solar power generation facilities clustered by the clustering processing unit are installed,
The average load curve is estimated as the load curve of the customer of the surplus purchase contract, and the actual load of the customer of the surplus purchase contract is calculated using the estimated load curve, the power sales data, and the power purchase data. An actual load / photovoltaic power output estimating unit for estimating the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation equipment,
A photovoltaic power output estimating device comprising: The photovoltaic power output estimating device according to claim 1,
The photovoltaic power output estimating device, wherein the measuring device is a smart meter installed in each customer. The photovoltaic power output estimating device according to claim 1,
The clustering processing unit, a part that analyzes the measurement data of a customer who does not have a photovoltaic power generation facility installed, and a part that analyzes the measurement data of the customer of a surplus purchase contract where the photovoltaic power generation facility is installed, A photovoltaic power output estimating device comprising: The photovoltaic power output estimating device according to claim 3,
The part that analyzes the measurement data of customers without solar power generation equipment is clustered by region, contract type, and contracted capacity, and calculates the average value to calculate the average load curve per customer. A photovoltaic power output estimating device characterized by the above-mentioned. The photovoltaic power output estimating device according to claim 3,
A solar power output estimating apparatus characterized in that a part for analyzing measurement data of a customer of a surplus purchase contract in which a solar power generation facility is installed is clustered by region, contract type, and contract capacity. The photovoltaic power output estimating device according to claim 1,
The actual load / photovoltaic power output estimating unit calculates the actual load of the customer of the surplus purchase contract and the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facilities for each of the clustered classes. . The photovoltaic power output estimating device according to claim 1,
A photovoltaic power generation output estimating device, wherein the actual load of the customer in the surplus purchase contract is estimated as being similar to the average load of a customer who does not have a photovoltaic power generation facility of the same class. The photovoltaic power output estimating device according to claim 1,
Calculating the ratio of the total of the nighttime electric power amounts of the power purchase data and the average load curve of the consumer in which no photovoltaic power generation facilities of the same class as the power purchase data are installed as a nighttime correction amount. Characteristic solar power output estimation device. The solar power generation output estimating device according to claim 8,
By multiplying the nighttime correction amount by an average load curve of a customer who does not have solar power generation, the actual load of the customer of the surplus purchase contract is estimated as an actual load estimation value. Power generation output estimation device. The solar power output estimating device according to claim 9,
By subtracting the power purchase data of the customer of the surplus purchase contract from the actual load estimation value, the self-consumption is calculated, and the self-consumption and the power sales data of the customer of the surplus purchase contract are added to obtain the solar power. A photovoltaic power output estimating device for estimating a photovoltaic power generation amount. The photovoltaic power output estimating device according to claim 1,
Using the actual load of the customer of the surplus purchase contract estimated by the actual load / photovoltaic power output estimating unit, the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation facility, and the system data stored in the system information storage unit. A solar power generation output estimating device, which totals the actual load of a customer of a surplus purchase contract and the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facilities in units of distribution lines, switch sections, and pole transformers. A step of recording the electric energy of the customer measured by the measuring device as measurement data,
Clustering the measurement data under predetermined conditions,
Recording an average load curve per customer of the customers who do not have the clustered solar power generation facilities;
A step of recording power sales data and power purchase data of a customer of a surplus purchase contract in which the clustered solar power generation facilities are installed,
Estimating the average load curve as a load curve of the customer of the surplus purchase contract, using the estimated load curve and the power sales data and the power purchase data, the actual load of the customer of the surplus purchase contract. Estimating the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment,
A photovoltaic power output estimating method comprising:

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