JP2006331311A - Intention decision support system - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a support technology for facilitating decision making by displaying a presented proposal on a display screen. <P>SOLUTION: This intention decision support system is provided with an external information acquisition part 211 acquiring information from an external system 50 and a specialist system 60, a manager terminal transmission/receiving part 213 communicating with a manager terminal 30 for transmitting/receiving information, a personnel terminal transmission/receiving part communicating with a personnel terminal 40 for transmitting/receiving information, a computing part 215 using a prepared function for operating designated computing and generating information A-F constituting an intention decision support screen according to given definition information and for sending it to the manager terminal 30, and an information storage part 212 storing the external information, information from the personnel terminal device, and information about the computing result and the like in a storage device 22 (or storing the information in the external storage device 25) and reading necessary information. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2007,JPO&INPIT

Description

  The present invention relates to a technology that supports management decision making by developing management indicators.

  Conventionally, Patent Document 1 proposes a processing system that provides an index for performing evaluation of the entire company, evaluation of business departments within the company, or evaluation of new business. This system correctly evaluates the value of the business and allocates resources efficiently within the company, thereby increasing the value to shareholders, the safety of value to lenders, risk grasping in business development, and the probability of bankruptcy. The comprehensive analysis of predictive evaluation and social / environmental considerations will enable companies to develop over the medium to long term.

  For this purpose, analysis of past financial data to create a forecast error of operating profit after tax, input of financial data of a new business plan, and the forecast error and financial data of the new business plan By comprising the process of evaluating the value of the investment target company and the process of evaluating the value of the investment target company based on a certain standard and making an investment decision, the increase in value to shareholders and the maintenance of value to the lender are maintained. The company is able to develop the company over the medium to long term by comprehensively analyzing the characteristics, risk of business development, predictive evaluation of the probability of bankruptcy, and consideration for society and the environment.

Japanese Patent Laid-Open No. 200-233703

  The technique disclosed in Patent Document 1 described above is business analysis using past data in a company. However, in corporate management, it is necessary to consider a plan including what will happen in the future. A typical example is budget planning for each department. The person in charge of planning in each department, for example, sets a target for a certain business and drafts a budget. However, management was unable to understand how each budget proposal would affect the management indicators of the company as a whole. Therefore, I didn't know how much I should trust the budget plan, and eventually I had to call the planner and ask. With this, there was a problem that it was not possible to make a decision efficiently.

  The present invention displays the proposed plan on the display screen, accepts selection and change of conditions regarding various promises for the displayed plan, and can display the degree of influence on the management index. The purpose is to provide assistive technology that can facilitate decision making.

The present invention
An information processing apparatus connected to a terminal via a network, generating information for displaying an index used for making a decision about a proposed target, and for a terminal used for decision making A decision support system to send,
The information processing apparatus includes:
An external information acquisition unit that acquires information for indicating financial indicators and plan values, and assumption information including assumptions and possible cases of the assumptions from the outside;
An information storage unit for storing the acquired information and the generated information;
A person-in-charge terminal transceiver for receiving promise information including a definition of a promise for a plan sent from the terminal, as well as sending the prerequisite information to any of the terminals,
Based on the information for indicating the financial index and the plan value, the financial index tree display and various plan value displays, the premise display for displaying the premise based on the precondition information, and the promise based on the promise information A calculation unit for generating a screen for performing promise display to be displayed;
A management terminal transmitting / receiving unit that receives information including a request for changing a precondition from the terminal and a request for reviewing a promise, as well as sending the generated screen information to a terminal for making a decision. To do.

  FIG. 1 shows an outline of a configuration of a decision support system according to an embodiment of the present invention. As shown in FIG. 1, the decision support system of the present embodiment includes at least one information processing device 20, a manager terminal 30, and a person-in-charge terminal 40. A typical model includes a system including one information processing apparatus 20, one manager terminal 30, and a plurality of person-in-charge terminals 40. The number of devices is not limited to this model example.

  Here, the name of the manager terminal 30 is a name for convenience, and is an example of a device that is operated by a subject that makes a decision. Essentially, it may be a terminal used by a person who makes a decision. Therefore, the manager terminal 30 can also be called a decision maker terminal. Similarly, the person-in-charge terminal 40 is also a name for convenience and may be a department name, for example, a name such as a development department terminal. Moreover, the name which shows the surname of a person in charge, a nickname, a department code, etc. may be sufficient.

  This decision making system can be connected to the external system 50 and the expert system 60 via the network NW. Further, the information processing apparatus 20 can exchange information with the manager terminal 30 and the person-in-charge terminal 40 via the network NW. This network may be an intranet or a LAN.

  The information processing device 20 includes a central processing unit (CPU) 21 that executes various processes, a storage device 22 that stores programs, data, processing results, and the like executed by the CPU 21, and communication control that controls communication with other devices. Device 23. In addition, the information processing apparatus 20 includes an external storage device 25 that stores various types of information such as programs, data acquired from the outside, setting information from the person-in-charge terminal, calculation results, screen display information, and the like. The storage device 22 includes, for example, a hard disk device and a main memory. The hard disk device includes a program executed by the CPU 21 and a function library that is used when executing the program and includes various functions used for various calculations for calculating management indices and executing a decision support simulation. Is stored. The CPU 21 implements various functions by loading a program stored in the hard disk device into the main memory and executing it. The external storage device 25 functions as a large-capacity storage device, and is constituted by a hard disk device, for example. The external storage device 25 stores a large amount of data and is used, for example, when referring to past data.

  The management terminal 30 includes a central processing unit (CPU) 31 that executes various processes, a storage device 32 that stores programs, data, processing results, and the like executed by the CPU 31, and communication control that controls communication with other devices. Device 33. The CPU 31 realizes various functions by executing programs. Specifically, by executing a program based on data captured from the information processing device 20 and information input from the input device 36 to be described later, a simulation result for decision support is displayed. It accepts change instruction operations such as various parameter setting changes.

  Further, the manager terminal 30 includes an input device 36 that receives operations such as operations on the screen, various selection instructions, and numerical values, and a display device 37 that displays an image. The input device 36 includes, for example, a keyboard and a mouse or a device corresponding thereto. As the display device 37, a flat panel display, a display such as a CRT, for example, a liquid crystal display or the like is used. In addition, it is good also as a structure which serves as a display and an input as a structure which has a touchscreen. In the case of this embodiment, the input from the input device 36 is basically performed corresponding to the screen displayed by the display device 37. With such a configuration, even if an operator is unfamiliar, it can be used easily.

  The person-in-charge terminal 40 includes a central processing unit (CPU) 41 that executes various processes, a storage device 42 that stores programs, data, processing results, and the like executed by the CPU 41, and communication control that controls communication with other devices. Device 43. The CPU 41 realizes various functions by executing programs. Specifically, by inputting a program based on data captured from the information processing device 20 and information input from the input device 46 described later, settings necessary for simulation for decision support are input. To help.

  The person-in-charge terminal 40 includes an input device 46 that receives input of various settings, operation instructions, numerical values, and the like, and a display device 47 that displays an image. The input device 46 can have the same configuration as the input device 36 described above. In addition, the display device 47 can have the same configuration as the display device 37 described above. Further, the structure having a touch panel is also possible.

  The external system 50 is configured by a computer. As shown in FIG. 3, the external system 50 generates (1) financial index tree definition information, index calculation logic information (2) to (4), and (3) plan value information in advance. Provided to the information processing apparatus 20. The information (1) to (5) can be created in the information processing apparatus 20.

  The expert system 60 is configured by a computer. The expert system 60 represents various information surrounding the economy such as wars, civil wars, terrorism, large-scale disasters, epidemics, etc. on behalf of analysis of market conditions such as exchange rates, stock prices, bonds, etc. This is a system for generating information indicating the analysis of information to be performed and the prospect thereof and providing the information to an information processing apparatus of a customer (which may be a department of the same company). Specifically, precondition information including a premise and possible cases for the premise is generated. For example, rates for exchange futures reservations and the like. Since this type of information changes from moment to moment, it is provided periodically, at any time, or as needed. In the present embodiment, the expert system 60 is shown as one system, but there may be a configuration in which information is provided from a plurality of types of specialized systems corresponding to each specialty.

  FIG. 2 shows an outline of the information flow in the decision support system of this embodiment. In FIG. 2, each of the information processing apparatus 20 to the expert system 60 is configured by one apparatus for the sake of simplicity, but this is only an example. For example, a system configuration in which a plurality of devices exist like the person-in-charge terminal 40 can be adopted.

  As shown in FIG. 2, in the present embodiment, the information processing apparatus 20 takes in information from the external system 50, the expert system 60, and the person-in-charge terminal 40. Based on such information, various displays for supporting decision making in management judgment, for example, data for displaying A to F are generated and sent to the manager terminal 30. Information acquired by the information processing apparatus 20 and information output by the information processing apparatus 20 include, for example, those illustrated in FIGS. 3, 4, and 5.

  First, information that the information processing apparatus 20 acquires from the external system 50 and the expert system 60 will be described. As shown in FIG. 2 and FIG. 3, the information acquired from the external system 50 includes information for indicating a financial index and a planned value. Specifically, (1) financial index tree definition information indicating the financial status of the planned business or budget, and a numerical value corresponding to an index that is an element of the financial index tree is calculated (2) (4) index calculation Logic information and (5) plan value information used for display and calculation are listed. In addition, as information acquired from the expert system 60, (10) Premise information including information for specifying information that is a premise of the plan, and various premise cases indicating the premise items included in the premise information as cases, for example, (11) Premise case information indicating information used as a premise for decision making such as exchange rate of futures, political figures, figures given by experts on plagues, views, etc. These are acquired before the information processing apparatus 20 generates a screen for support. Also, it is updated as appropriate.

  (1) The financial index tree definition information includes an index ID that identifies various financial-related indices such as gross profit and sales, and the name of the index indicated by the ID, that is, gross profit, sales, and millions of yen. It includes units, types of values such as integers, currency, decimals, and percentages, and types of calculation of total values such as totals and averages, and are defined corresponding to the types of indicators. Accordingly, (1) the financial index tree definition information includes one or more indexes. Generally, it includes a plurality of indicators. This point is common to the other information after (2).

  (2) The index calculation logic setting information includes a calculation index ID for specifying an index to be calculated and an index calculation logic ID for specifying a logic used for the calculation. (3) The index calculation logic usage index information includes, for each calculated index ID described above, a usage index ID that identifies an index that uses the index, an argument number that is used when the index is used, and a weight given to the index calculation. . (4) The index calculation logic information includes an index calculation logic ID that identifies each index calculation logic, and a function name that specifies functions such as four arithmetic operations, percentages, and averages used in each index calculation logic.

  (5) The plan value information includes an index ID for identifying the above-described index, and a time interval necessary for obtaining a financial index when planning a business plan, a budget plan, etc. corresponding to the index, for example, month , And the range of the target year and month, and the planned values such as the number of units shipped and the average selling price in the target month.

  Next, information exchanged between the information processing apparatus 20 and the person-in-charge terminal 40 will be described. As shown in FIGS. 2 and 3, the information provided to the person-in-charge terminal 40 by the information processing apparatus 20 is information indicating an effect index for selecting an effect to be promised (1) Financial index tree definition First, an effect index included in the information is given. This information is information indicating an effect index for selecting an effect to be promised, and may be incorporated in advance. Further, the above-mentioned (10) premise information and (11) premise case information are provided. Furthermore, (12) scenario information and (13) scenario selection information are provided.

  (10) The premise information includes one or more premise names indicating premise matters such as exchange rates, regional conflicts, plagues, disasters, and the like, and a premise ID that identifies each premise name. (11) Premise case information includes, for each premise, a case indicating a predicted situation of the premise such as progress, situation, value, etc., a case ID for identifying this case, a prediction of the premise, a prospect, etc. And expert identification information that identifies the expert system to be displayed. There are two or more cases for one assumption. In the person-in-charge terminal 40 that defines the promise, or by default, one of the cases is selected for each assumption.

  (12) The scenario information includes a premise ID for specifying a premise, a case ID for specifying any of a plurality of cases combined with the premise ID, and a scenario ID for specifying these combinations as scenarios. As the premise, as mentioned above, exchange rates, plagues, wars, etc. can be mentioned. And as a case, several values of an exchange rate are mentioned. A scenario ID is given for the set rate. Further, (13) scenario selection information includes a check flag indicating selection / non-selection for each scenario ID, and information on a plan value when it is selected.

  On the other hand, as information acquired by the information processing apparatus 20 from the person-in-charge terminal 40, the person-in-charge terminal 40 defines a promise to the manager input by the person in charge for the business plan, budget plan, etc. (6) Promise Definition information and (7) Promise effect information indicating the effect achieved by the promise, and information specifying what kind of risk is associated with the promise (8) Promise risk information and the identified risk (9) Risk information indicating contents.

  (6) The promise definition information is specifically expressed by an action ID assigned for each promise definition, an action name corresponding to each action ID, and a name of a person in charge who made the promise (part name) And a check flag indicating selection / non-selection of the promise. (7) The promise effect information specifically includes an action ID that identifies each promise, a scenario ID that indicates a premise case selected in those promises, and an indicator that identifies an index that is the target of the promise. It includes an ID, an effect for specifying a promise effect (treatment of an arithmetic expression and a numerical value), an effect start date and an effect end date that are the target period of the effect. (9) The risk information includes a risk name indicating the name for each risk and a risk ID for specifying each risk name. (8) Promise risk information specifically includes an action ID that identifies each of the promises for which risk is set, a scenario ID that indicates a premise case selected in the promise, and (9) risk And a risk ID that identifies risk information for each action in the information.

  Next, as information provided to the management terminal 30 by the information processing apparatus 20, A. financial index tree display indicating the business plan, the budget plan, etc., and B. various plan value displays corresponding to the tree. C. Risk indication indicating possible risks related to promises, D. Promise contribution rate indications for business plan proposals, etc. E. Premise information indicating premises for registering promises E. Premise indications, F F. Promise display that displays registered promises. As shown in FIGS. 6 and 7, these can be combined and displayed as a list.

  On the other hand, as information received by the information processing apparatus 20 from the manager terminal 30 in addition to general operation instructions, E. E. Premise change for instructing change of the premise selected by the person in charge in the premise display , F. Fre. Commitment selection indicating the selection of the promise proposed by the person in charge in the commitment display. Further, there are a review request registration for requesting registration of a promise review request by a person in charge and an approval registration for requesting registration of promise approval (see FIGS. 1 and 3).

  Next, generation of a display screen for decision support displayed on the manager terminal performed in the information processing apparatus 20 will be described.

  In this embodiment, as shown in FIGS. 6 and 7, the screen layout is configured to display a list of all areas from A to F. For all screens from A to F, it is possible to accept instruction operations for enlarged display and full screen display, respectively.

  That is, A. financial index display and B. various plan value displays are collectively displayed in a window as a financial index display area 371 (371a, 371b). E. Premise display and C. Risk display are displayed in windows as a premise display area 372 and a risk display area 375, respectively. The premise display area 372 and the risk display area 375 are arranged in the vertical direction of the screen so that the total length of both is the same size in the vertical direction of the screen of the adjacent financial use display area 371.

  F. Promise display and D. Promise contribution ratio display are arranged as a promise display area 373 and a commitment contribution ratio display area 374 in the band-like area of the remaining portion of the screen. The promise display area 373 is configured to be the same size as the financial index display area 371. Similarly, the commitment contribution rate display area 374 is arranged adjacent to the lower side of the risk display area 375.

  Next, functions of the information processing apparatus 20, the manager terminal 30, and the person-in-charge terminal 40 will be described with reference to FIG.

  The information processing apparatus 20 operates when the CPU 21 executes a program installed in advance. As a result, the function shown in FIG. 3 is constructed. That is, the external information acquisition unit 211 that acquires information from the external system 50 and the expert system 60, the management terminal transmission / reception unit 213 that communicates with the management terminal 30 to exchange information, and the communication with the person-in-charge terminal 40 The person-in-charge terminal transmission / reception unit 214 for sending / receiving information and a function prepared in advance are used to perform a specified calculation and generate information on A to F constituting the decision support screen according to the given definition information Then, the calculation unit 215 that performs processing to be sent to the manager terminal 30 and external information, information from the person-in-charge terminal device, information such as the calculation result are stored in the storage device 22 (when stored in the external storage device 25). And an information storage unit 212 that performs a process of reading out necessary information.

  A typical task executed by the calculation unit 215 is to execute a management simulation calculation process for decision support. That is, while taking in information from the outside and adding information set by the person-in-charge terminal 40, as shown in FIG. 6 and FIG. 7, decision making to display from A. financial index tree display to F. promise display Screen information constituting the support screen 370 is generated. The calculation unit 215 prepares a function for performing a calculation in advance. When the CPU 21 functions as the calculation unit 215, for example, as illustrated in FIG. 4, the CPU 21 refers to the calculation function name specified by the index calculation logic information and uses a function corresponding thereto, Perform the operation. As functions used for financial accounting, for example, there are various functions that perform general arithmetic operations, total calculation, percentage calculation, average calculation, rounding of numerical values, units, comma addition, etc. The The management simulation can be performed again upon receiving instructions from the manager terminal 30 such as a change in the selection of the premise and a change in the selection of the promise.

  The manager terminal 30 operates when the CPU 31 executes a program installed in advance. As a result, the function shown in FIG. 3 is constructed. That is, a screen display unit 311 that displays a screen such as a decision support display screen on the display device 37 based on information A to F sent from the information processing device 20, and various instructions and numerical values are input via the input device 36. And an information processing device transmission / reception unit 313 that performs the above-described reception of information from A to F, transmission of responses to the information, and transmission / reception of various instructions with the information processing device 20.

  The screen display unit 311 displays the above-described decision support screen 370 as shown in FIG. 7 on the display device 36 based on the screen information sent from the information processing device 20. The decision support screen 370 displays a list of financial index display areas 371 (371a, 371b), a premise display area 372, a promise display area 373, a promise contribution ratio display area 374, and a risk display area 375. . Moreover, according to the selection instruction | indication operation received by the screen display operation reception part 312a, an individual window display is performed about each screen of the financial indicator display area 371 to the risk display area 375. FIG.

  The instruction receiving unit 312 receives a screen display operation 312a that receives and executes various operation inputs related to screen display such as screen display, non-display, individual area display, window enlargement / reduction, and scrolling in a window, and instructions for support operations. And an instruction for instructing the information processing apparatus 20 to execute an assist operation, and a condition instruction accepting 312c for accepting information input such as a condition change instruction. These functions can also be performed on an individually displayed screen by clicking on a necessary area on the screen shown in FIG. For example, the commitment contribution ratio screen 374 in FIG. 17 and the premise display / selection screen 372 in FIGS. 18 and 19 are examples of individually displayed displays.

  The person-in-charge terminal 40 operates when the CPU 41 executes a program installed in advance. As a result, the function shown in FIG. 3 is constructed. That is, a screen display unit 411 that displays a promise registration screen, a risk registration screen, and the like on the display device 47 based on the information (1), (10) to (13) sent from the information processing device 20, and an input device 46, an instruction receiving unit 412 that receives various instructions, numerical value input, etc., reception of each of the above-described information (1), (10) to (13), and (6) to (9) (FIG. 3). Information processing apparatus transmission / reception unit 413 that performs transmission of each information of information), and calculation processing for generating information such as promise definition and promise risk based on input information such as promise / risk Part 415.

  The screen display unit 411 displays the promise registration screen 437a shown in FIG. 14, the promise registration confirmation screen 437b shown in FIG. 15, the risk registration screen 475 shown in FIG. As in the commitment contribution rate area 374 shown in FIG. 17, the commitment registration screen 437a can display each screen of the promise registration area 473 and the premise display / selection area 472 for accepting promise registration. 14, 15, and 16 are configured to display a list of two related screens in order to facilitate the input of operation instructions. However, it is not limited to this display form. Different windows may be displayed side by side.

  The instruction receiving unit 412 receives a screen display operation 412a that receives and executes various operation inputs related to screen display such as screen display, non-display, window enlargement / reduction, and scrolling in the window, and information such as text and numerical values related to promises and risks. A promise / risk input acceptance 412c for accepting an input.

  The calculation unit 415 uses the information acquired from the information processing device 20 and the information input via the input device 46 to (6) promise definition information, (7) promise effect information, and (8) promise risk information. And generate In addition, when the calculation unit 415 receives a review request from the manager terminal 30 as an alarm by the information processing device 20, the calculation unit 415 acquires the review request information. The review request information includes, for example, information input at the management terminal 30 regarding change of assumption, review of risk, change of promise, and the like.

  In FIG. 3, the information storage unit and the calculation unit in the manager terminal 30 and the information storage unit in the person-in-charge terminal 40 are not shown as components. But that doesn't mean they don't exist. Since it is not essential as an inherent function in the present embodiment, it is not shown in the figure. Needless to say, it exists as a general computer function.

  Next, processing for decision support will be described. This section describes how the functions to be constructed generate display screens used for decision-making by processing / calculating information according to each purpose of use, and how they are used. .

  As shown in FIG. 2, the information processing apparatus 20 first collects information necessary for decision making. At this stage, the external information acquisition unit 211 collects necessary information from the external system 50 and the expert system 60 in advance. In addition, since this type of information changes from moment to moment, the external information acquisition unit acquires and updates information as necessary. Acquisition and update of information can be performed by setting various timings, such as performing at the pose of the proposal, starting up, and according to instructions. Information may be obtained at all timings individually exemplified.

  The external information acquisition unit 211 acquires information on the index, the plan value, and the calculation logic from the external system 50 as illustrated in FIG. The acquired information is, for example, in the format shown in FIG. 4 as (1) financial index tree definition information, (2) (3) (4) index calculation logic information, and (5) plan value information. Save in the storage unit 212. In addition, the external information acquisition unit 211 records various information from the expert system 60 that is a premise of business planning and budget planning. The acquired information is stored in the information storage unit 212 as, for example, (10) premise information and (11) premise case information in the format shown in FIG.

  Next, a description will be given of promise registration and risk registration by the person in charge or the relevant department for business plans, budget plans, etc., performed at the person-in-charge terminal 40. In the person-in-charge terminal 40, although not shown, a menu display is prepared. In the menu, it is possible to select screens such as promise registration, promise registration confirmation, and risk registration. Here, first, the promise registration will be described assuming that the promise registration is selected.

  The person-in-charge terminal 40 causes the screen display unit 411 to display a screen for promise registration and risk registration. These screens are prepared in the person-in-charge terminal 40. Of course, it is good also as a structure acquired from the information processing apparatus 20. FIG. It should be noted that data such as characters and numerical values to be written in the screen is fetched from the information processing apparatus 20 by the input device 46 and by default. For example, as illustrated in FIG. 3, (10) (11) prerequisite information / premise case information and (12) (13) scenario information are received from the information processing apparatus 20. As for the effect index, for example, the person-in-charge terminal 40 can acquire the same items as those used on the screen displayed on the information processing apparatus 20 in advance from (1) financial index tree definition information and select from the pull-down menu. A pull-down menu can be prepared so that You may prepare beforehand in the program which comprises a display screen. In addition, the risk registration screen 475 is configured such that (6) promise definition information input on the promise registration screen described later can be taken in and selected and displayed in a pull-down menu format, for example, as shown in FIG.

  FIG. 14 shows a promise registration display 473 and a premise selection display 472 for assembling a scenario by specifying preconditions necessary for realizing the promise. Specifically, the premise is acquired from (10) and (11) information and displayed. Here, in the premise selection display 472, selection of any case is accepted for each premise. In the example of FIG. 14, the premise column 4722 includes an exchange rate and SARS which is a type of plague as preconditions. Cases scheduled for the respective cases are displayed in the case column 4723. In the selection column 4724, the case selection result for each premise is shown.

  Next, in the promise registration display 473, a promise name column 4733, a person in charge column 4735, an effect index column 4735, an effect column 4736, period (effect start / effect end) columns 4737 and 4738, and a rank column 4731 are displayed. Is done. Here, except when using already input information, the promise name field 4733, the person in charge field 4735, the effect index field 4735, the effect field 4736, and the period (effect start / effect end) fields 4737 and 4738 The corresponding information is input via the input device 46. The promise / risk input reception 412c receives these inputs and displays them in the corresponding fields. In addition, the calculation unit 415 generates (6) promise definition information and (7) promise effect information using the input information.

  In generating such information, (1) an effect index in the financial index tree definition information, (10) (11) premise information / premise case information, and (12) (13) scenario information are used. (12) As for scenario information, a premise ID for specifying each premise and a case ID for specifying a case set in each premise are determined for each scenario. The premise includes exchange rate, plague, war, etc. as described above. And as a case, several values of an exchange rate are mentioned. A scenario ID is given for each scenario. (13) The scenario selection information includes information indicating a scenario ID for identifying the scenario, a selection flag indicating whether the scenario is selected, and a plan value when the scenario is applied, corresponding to the scenario ID. .

  The promise / risk input acceptance unit 412c accepts an input for premise registration via the input device 46 on the promise registration / premise display screen 473a. Thereafter, when a save button 4702 is clicked, if the input item relates to the promise definition (6) as promise definition information, and if the input information relates to the promise effect (7 ) Each is sent to the information processing apparatus 20 as the promise effect information.

  On the promise registration / premise display screen 473a, when a load button 4701 is clicked, the screen display unit 411 displays a promise registration confirmation screen (load screen) 473b shown in FIG. Here, the already registered appointment is displayed.

  Next, risk registration will be described with reference to FIG. When risk registration is selected on the menu screen described above by the screen display unit 411, the screen shown in FIG. 16 is displayed. On the screen, a risk registration display 473 for performing risk registration and a premise selection display 472 are displayed together.

  In the premise selection display 475, as described above, premises, cases, and selections about them are displayed. In the risk registration display 472, the promise / risk input acceptance 412c accepts the selection of the target promise using the pull-down key 4539 in the risk registration display 475. The screen display unit 411 displays the selected promise in the promise column 4753. Further, the promise / risk input acceptance 412c accepts a risk selection using the pull-down key 4750b. The screen display unit 411 displays the selected risk in the risk column 4750a. Here, the promise / risk input acceptance 412c, when the save (SAVE) button 4702 is clicked, the risk registration display 472 attaches a risk ID to the registered risk. (9) The risk name is added to the risk information. (8) The risk ID is incorporated into the promised risk information together with the action ID and the scenario ID. The information processing device transmission / reception unit 413 transmits the above-described (8) promised risk information and (9) risk information to the information processing device 20.

  Next, generation of a screen used for decision support performed in the information processing apparatus 20 and execution of a simulation using the screen will be described.

  The computing unit 215 reads (1) financial index definition information from the sent information. (1) In the financial index definition information, field 1 describes an index ID corresponding to the index. By these index IDs and other related IDs, as shown in FIG. 8, the corresponding (1) financial index definition information and (2) to (5) information are related. (1) As for the financial index definition information, information necessary to display the component 3712 of the management index tree 3711, its tree structure, and the first half total amount 3713 for the elements serving as the nodes from the field 2 5. Specifically, as indicated by a broken line arrow in FIG. 8, an index name such as “average selling price” is described. The index name includes, for example, sales, shipment volume, average selling price, cost, overhead cost, direct cost, etc., and these are described in corresponding fields as necessary. In the first half total, the unit is “M yen”, that is, million yen, the value type is “currency”, and the total value calculation type is “average”. The calculation unit 215 generates a management index tree 3711 according to these descriptions.

  In addition, (1) the plan value for the corresponding year is read from (5) plan value information corresponding to the index ID in the financial index definition information and placed in the plan value area 371b. Similarly, based on the index ID, (3) index calculation logic usage index information is referred to, and a value indicating the weight is written in the weight area 3714, and the usage index ID is used so that this weight can be used for calculation. returned. In the present embodiment, the planned value is input in the external system. However, it is not limited to that. You may enable it to input in the person-in-charge terminal 40 and the management terminal 30 which are mentioned later. The weight can also be changed by selection, numerical input, or the like.

  Further, the calculation index ID of (2) index calculation logic setting information is specified by the index ID, and the calculation function name is determined by linking to the index calculation logic ID of the index calculation logic information from the corresponding index calculation logic ID. . The calculation unit 215 uses this calculation function to calculate the total for the first half of the plan value and the weight according to the total value calculation type corresponding to the tree element. More specifically, the calculation unit 215 (1) for all index IDs in the financial index definition information, (2) index calculation that specifies index calculation logic for calculating the index calculation logic setting information A logic ID and a calculated index ID that identifies a usage index are acquired. Further, (5) a plan value corresponding to the year and month is entered in an index having a value in the plan value information.

  Thereby, as shown in FIG. 8, a list of financial index trees and plan values can be displayed. The format and elements of the tree display can be changed. In addition, when there is a change in the plan value, the display is changed accordingly when rereading.

  Next, the premise display / selection 372 shown in FIG. 9 will be described. In the premise display / selection 372, the calculation unit 215 obtains the premise name, for example, text data such as “exchange rate” and “regional dispute” from the field 2 of the premise information, and displays it in the premise name column 3722. . Further, based on the premise ID in the field 2, (11) the exchange rate information provided by the expert in the field 4 is obtained from the corresponding premise ID in the premise case information, and the values and events in those possible ranges Etc. are written in the case column 3723 as a case.

  Further, by default or selection, (13) the check flag ON / OFF information in field 2 of the scenario selection information is found, and based on the scenario ID shown in field 1, (12) from the corresponding scenario ID of the scenario information, The premise ID is found, and the flag in the selection field 3724 is displayed on / off from the case ID in the field 3. That is, when the check flag is “1”, the selection column 3742 is displayed as checked. For example, “selected” display such as black circle display, check display, “x” display, etc. is displayed to indicate that it is selected. By doing so, the promise assumptions can be clarified. Note that the number field 3731 automatically assigns numbers in ascending or descending order by the computing unit 215.

  The selection column 3724 can be changed from the input device 36 of the manager terminal 30. In addition, if it is not selected, it is possible to make a new selection.

  Next, the promise display / selection display shown in FIG. 10 will be described. In the promise display / selection 373, the calculation unit 215 obtains an action ID from (7) promise effect information based on the scenario ID described in the field 1 of (13) scenario selection information. Further, based on the action ID, the calculation unit 215 obtains text data such as “sales expansion campaign” and “adopting high quality parts” from (6) promise definition information, which is the content of the relevant promise. Obtained and written in the promise column 3733. Similarly, when the information indicating the on / off state of the check flag described in the field 4 is “1” from (6) promise definition information, a check display is performed in the selection field 3732. When the information is “0”, no check display is performed in the selection field 3732. The selection column 3745 is reflected in the field 4 of the promise definition information when any promise is selected in the manager terminal 30 described later, and the result is displayed in the selection column. Further, the text data of the person in charge in the field 3 is obtained, and a notation indicating the person in charge such as “sales department” and “technical department” is given in the person in charge column 3734. Here, the surname, nickname, etc. of the person in charge such as “Inoue”, “Suzuki”, and “Yamada” may be written. The number field 3731 is automatically assigned a number by the calculation unit 215.

  On the other hand, the calculation unit 215 obtains an arithmetic expression for expressing the effect from the field 4 of the (7) promise effect definition information and describes it in the effect column 3736. Further, text data representing the effect start date and effect end date is obtained from the field 5 and the field 6, and the date corresponding to the effect start column 3737 and the effect end column 3738 is written. Further, the calculation unit 215 obtains the index ID from the field 3, and (1) based on the corresponding index ID in the financial index definition information, for example, the index name of the field 2, such as “shipment number”, “average selling price”, etc. These data can be written in the effect index column 3735.

  Next, the promise contribution rate display shown in FIG. 11 will be described. Similar to the promise display / selection 373 shown in FIG. 10, the calculation unit 215 obtains text data of the action name that is the content of the promise from the promise definition information, and describes it in the promise column 3742. Also, text data of the person in charge is obtained and written in the person in charge column 3743. In addition, the calculation unit 215 calculates a contribution rate. As shown in FIG. 11, this calculation is also performed depending on how much the gross profit is affected. (7) Contents of effects described in the promise effect information 3766 shown in the effect column 3766 of the promise display / selection 373, (1) tree components included in the financial index tree definition information, and corresponding first half total numbers Is used. The calculation unit 215 has functions of a gross profit calculation 2151 for calculating a gross profit using these and a contribution ratio calculation 2152 for further obtaining a contribution ratio from the gross profit. The contribution rate obtained by the calculation is described in the contribution rate column 3744.

  An example of calculating the contribution rate will be described with reference to FIG. The example shown in FIG. 12 is an example different from the promise shown in FIG. FIG. 12 shows a calculation example of the contribution rate when a commitment is made to increase the development efficiency of the product code R101 by 10% as a promise.

  In FIG. 12, the contribution rate is calculated by obtaining the planned numerical value for the business plan related to R101 and before the promise shown in the promise column 3733 is selected (the check column 3732 is not checked). ) To calculate the gross profit etc. and the calculation to obtain the gross profit etc. after selecting the promise, and calculate the contribution rate based on the result of both.

  Specifically, first, the gross profit “500,000” before selection is obtained by calculating the sales “1,000,000”, the direct cost “300,000”, and the indirect cost “200,000”. Next, the sales amount, direct cost, and indirect cost after selection are shown for the index selected as the effect index in the effect index column 3735, for example, the effect described in the effect column 3736, for example, multiplication. Using “*” and “1.2”, the sales before the selection (in the example of FIG. 12, “1,000,000”) is multiplied by 1.2 to obtain a product, and the sales after the selection (1,200,000) are calculated. The direct cost is not used as an indicator of effectiveness, so it will remain as it is. On the other hand, since “+” indicating addition is set for the indirect cost, the set “100,000” is added to the cost “200,000” before selection to obtain the indirect cost after selection. Next, based on the gross profit difference before and after the selection, a contribution ratio to the gross profit when the selection is made is calculated from the state where the promise is not selected. Similarly, the contribution rate to the gross profit when the selection is removed from the selected state is calculated. The contribution rate obtained according to the selection status of the selection column 3732 is written in the contribution rate column 3744 of the commitment contribution rate display 374 as shown in FIG.

  Next, the risk display shown in FIG. 13 will be described. The computing unit 215 corresponds to the action ID described in the field 1 of the promise risk information (8) sent from the person-in-charge terminal 40. (6) Whether the check flag is “1” in the field 4 of the promise definition information. And (8) check whether the check flag is “1” in the field 2 of the scenario selection information corresponding to the scenario ID described in the field 2 of the promised risk information. The number of action risks in the case of “is counted, and the result is shown in the risk number column 375.

  In addition, based on the risk ID in the field 3 of (6) promised risk information, the calculation unit 215 acquires the risk name, for example, “competitor's low price strategy” text data from the corresponding (9) risk information. Is written in the risk name column 3752. In the rank column 3751, when there are a plurality of risk names, the calculation unit 215 sorts them in descending order of the number of risk cases and attaches a number indicating the rank.

  Next, the information for generating the decision support screen generated as described above is sent to the manager terminal 30 and received by the information processing device transmission / reception unit 313. The received screen information is displayed on the display device 37 by the screen display unit 311. Specifically, for example, a list screen as shown in FIG. 7 is displayed. In the manager terminal 30, an instruction regarding a screen is received by the instruction receiving unit 312 via the input device 36. For example, when any area of the screen is displayed, it can be performed by clicking the area.

  Specifically, as shown in FIG. 18, the manager terminal 30 displays the entire window 372 alone. Here, as shown in FIG. 19, if any of the check state change inputs in the selection field 3724 is input by the input device 36 of the manager terminal 30, the instruction receiving unit 312, in particular, the condition instruction receiving unit 312 c. , Accept the input. In addition, when a new check is performed due to the change and an ON operation of the update button 3705 is accepted, the manager terminal 30 transmits the information processing apparatus transmission / reception unit 313 to the information processing apparatus 20. The information processing apparatus 20 determines this change as a review request and accepts the registration. Then, an alarm is sent to the person-in-charge terminal 40. Further, the changed selection information is sent to the corresponding person-in-charge terminal 40.

  In the person-in-charge terminal 40, an alarm is issued by a display or the like that there is a change sent from the manager terminal 40 described above. In the person-in-charge terminal 40, the promise definition can be re-input based on the change information input in the manager terminal 30. This re-entry essentially uses the assumptions entered so far, changes the assumptions to be reviewed, etc., changes the commitment definition, and also requires the risk. Change input accordingly. For the input items, the calculation unit 415 generates (6) promise definition information and (7) promise effect information using the input information, and sends them to the information processing apparatus 20, respectively. Further, the risk registration display 472 attaches a risk ID to the registered risk (9) incorporates it as a risk name in the risk information, and (8) includes a risk ID together with the action ID and scenario ID in the promised risk information. Incorporate The information processing device transmission / reception unit 413 transmits the above-described (8) promised risk information and (9) risk information to the information processing device 20.

  As described above, the review can be performed and the result can be input again at the person-in-charge terminal 40. The input result is sent to the information processing apparatus 20 and is sent after being incorporated into information for display on the manager terminal 30 as described above.

  The amount of information displayed on the screen can be reduced. For example, in the above-described embodiment, the risk is displayed in addition to the promise, but the risk display may be omitted.

FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing an outline of the configuration of a decision support system according to an embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 2 is an explanatory diagram showing a flow of information between devices in the decision making system according to an embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 3 is a block diagram illustrating an example of the input / output relationship of information and the functional configurations of the information processing apparatus, the manager terminal, and the person-in-charge terminal. FIG. 4 is an explanatory diagram showing various types of information used for decision support. FIG. 5 is an explanatory diagram showing various types of information used for decision support. FIG. 6 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the arrangement of windows on a screen displayed when making a decision support in the manager terminal. FIG. 7 is an explanatory diagram illustrating an example of a screen displayed at the time of decision support on the manager terminal. FIG. 8 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a management index tree screen integrally displaying the financial index display and the plan value display displayed on the display device at the manager terminal, and the display mechanism. FIG. 9 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a premise display / selection screen displayed in a window on the display device in the manager terminal and a display mechanism thereof. FIG. 10 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a promise display / selection screen displayed in a window on the display device in the manager terminal and a display mechanism thereof. FIG. 11 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a commitment contribution rate display screen displayed in a window on the display device at the manager terminal and a display mechanism thereof. FIG. 12 is an explanatory diagram illustrating a process of obtaining a contribution rate. FIG. 13 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a risk display screen that is displayed in a window on the display device in the manager terminal, and a display mechanism thereof. FIG. 14 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a promise registration screen displayed in a window on the display device in the person-in-charge terminal. FIG. 15 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a promise registration confirmation screen displayed in a window on the display device in the person-in-charge terminal. FIG. 16 is an explanatory diagram illustrating an example of a risk display screen displayed in a window on the display device in the person-in-charge terminal. FIG. 17 is an explanatory diagram illustrating an example of the commitment contribution ratio screen displayed on the display device in the manager terminal. FIG. 18 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a premise display / selection screen displayed in a window on the display device in the manager terminal. FIG. 19 is an example of a premise display / selection screen displayed in a window on the display device at the manager terminal, and is an explanatory diagram showing a state in which a change in exchange rate that leads to changing a scenario is selected.

Explanation of symbols

  DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 20 ... Information processing apparatus, 21 ... Central processing unit (CPU), 22 ... Storage device, 23 ... Communication control device, 25 ... External storage device, 30 ... Management terminal, 31 ... Central processing unit (CPU), 32 ... Memory 33, communication control device, 36 ... input device, 37 ... display device, 40 ... person in charge terminal, 41 ... central processing unit (CPU), 42 ... storage device, 43 ... communication control device, 46 ... input device, 47 ... display device.

Claims (2)

An information processing apparatus connected to a terminal via a network, generating information for displaying an index used for making a decision about a proposed target, and for a terminal used for decision making A decision support system to send,
The information processing apparatus includes:
An external information acquisition unit that acquires information for indicating financial indicators and plan values, and assumption information including assumptions and possible cases of the assumptions from the outside;
An information storage unit for storing the acquired information and the generated information;
A person-in-charge terminal transceiver for receiving promise information including a definition of a promise for a plan sent from the terminal, as well as sending the prerequisite information to any of the terminals,
Based on the information for indicating the financial index and the plan value, the financial index tree display and various plan value displays, the premise display for displaying the premise based on the precondition information, and the promise based on the promise information A calculation unit for generating a screen for performing promise display to be displayed;
A management terminal transmitting / receiving unit that receives information including a request for changing a precondition from the terminal and a request for reviewing a promise, as well as sending the generated screen information to a terminal for making a decision. Decision support system. In the decision support system according to claim 1,
The person-in-charge terminal transmission / reception unit accepts information on risk from the terminal,
The said calculating part produces | generates the information of the display screen regarding a risk with another screen, The decision support system characterized by the above-mentioned.

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