JP2006252058A - Charge plan support apparatus - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To properly decide a discount rate when setting the amount of money to be paid by a customer accompanied with the operation of gas consumption equipment having a power generating function as the amount of money which is smaller than a charge of power to be purchased from the power company. <P>SOLUTION: The history of power consumption by a customer stored in a result storing means 11 is used, and gas consumption accompanied with power generation by gas consumption equipment is predicted by a gas consumption predicting means 13. The fluctuation of the unit price of gas and power in the lease period of the gas consumption equipment is predicted by a charge fluctuation predicting means 14, and the fluctuation of the gas charge to be paid by a customer is calculated by the gas charge calculating means 16 from the predicted gas consumption and the predicted gas price unit. The calculated gas charge, lease charge and the payment sum of each customer in every unit period including a risk fund reserved for absorbing the prediction error of the unit price of power is calculated by a payment sum calculating means 17. According as a difference between the power charge to be calculated from the unit price of a power predicted by the charge fluctuation predicting means 14 and the payment sum calculated by the payment sum calculating means 17 becomes large, large discount rate is selected. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2006,JPO&NCIPI

Description

  The present invention provides a fee plan support for creating a fee plan so as to reduce the financial burden on customers as compared with the case of purchasing electric energy from an electric power company in order to promote the introduction of gas consuming devices that generate electricity using gas as an energy source. It relates to the device.

In recent years, cogeneration facilities and fuel cells that generate electricity using gas as an energy source have been commercialized, and these devices reduce CO ₂ emissions and reduce environmental impact compared to thermal power generation using heavy oil as the main fuel. Compared to the case where power is generated at a remote power plant, there is an advantage that energy loss associated with power transmission is small and energy efficiency is high, but these devices are expensive and are becoming popular. There is no current situation. Another factor that has prevented the spread of this type of device is the customer's psychological factor that commercial power prices may decrease in the future due to the liberalization of power.

  The present invention has been made in view of the above-mentioned reasons, and the purpose thereof is to increase the amount of money paid by the customer along with the operation of the gas consuming device in order to promote the spread of the gas consuming device having a power generation function. Another object of the present invention is to provide a charge plan support apparatus that appropriately determines a discount rate when setting a lower price than the power charge purchased from the factory.

  The invention of claim 1 rents a gas consuming device that generates electricity using gas as fuel, and purchases the gas consuming device using the energy service fee collected from the customer according to the amount of power generated during operation of the gas consuming device as a source. In order to support the service that pays the energy and discount the energy service fee from the electricity charge when the same amount of energy generated by the operation of the gas consuming equipment is purchased from the electric power company, it is possible to use multiple discount rates that are determined in advance. A charge plan support device that determines a discount rate according to a customer by using a computer, a record storage means for accumulating a history of electricity consumption by a customer measured by a measuring device, and an electricity consumption stored in the record storage means Gas consumption prediction means for predicting a customer's gas consumption associated with power generation in the gas consuming equipment using a history of the quantity, and a gas consuming equipment Lending from the price fluctuation forecasting means that predicts fluctuations in the unit price of gas and power during the loan period that is lent to the customer, the gas consumption predicted by the gas consumption forecasting means, and the unit price of gas predicted by the price fluctuation forecasting means Gas unit for calculating the fluctuation of the gas fee paid by the customer in the period, and a gas reserve calculated by the gas rate calculator and a risk reserve for absorbing the prediction error of the unit price of power A payment amount calculation means for calculating a customer's payment amount; an electricity charge for each unit period determined from a unit price of power predicted by the charge fluctuation prediction means; and a payment amount for each unit period calculated by the payment amount calculation means. Selecting means for selecting one of a plurality of types of discount rates so that the discount rate increases as the difference increases. And butterflies.

  According to a second aspect of the present invention, in the first aspect of the present invention, when the total amount of the customer's actual payment amount is smaller than the total amount of the customer's payment amount from the start of the loan period calculated by the payment amount calculation means, the loan period It is characterized by extending.

  In the invention of claim 3, in the invention of claim 1 or claim 2, each of the plurality of types of discount rates is set in a plurality of stages in the loan period so that the start side of the loan period is larger than the end side. It is characterized by that.

  According to a fourth aspect of the present invention, in the first to third aspects of the invention, the gas consuming device is a cogeneration facility that outputs heat energy that can be used together with electric energy, and the result storage means is measured by a measuring device. The gas consumption history is accumulated together with the electricity consumption history, and the gas consumption prediction means stores the gas consumption of the customer accompanying the generation of thermal energy by the cogeneration facility in the result storage means. The electrical energy generated together with the thermal energy by the cogeneration facility corresponding to the predicted gas consumption is calculated from the electrical energy predicted by the customer's actual electrical consumption before the introduction of the cogeneration facility. Using the subtracted value, the customer's gas consumption associated with power generation is predicted.

  According to the configuration of the invention of claim 1, when the customer introduces a gas consuming device such as a cogeneration facility or a fuel cell that generates power using gas as an energy source, the amount paid by the customer along with the power generation by the gas consuming device Will be less expensive than purchasing the same amount of energy from an electric power company, which will increase the customer's willingness to purchase gas consuming equipment. It is also possible to set an appropriate discount rate that contributes to an increase in gas sales. That is, in the invention of claim 1, since the gas consumption prediction means is provided, the gas consumption due to the introduction of the gas consuming device is predicted by predicting the future electricity consumption from the past results of the electricity consumption by the customer. It is also possible to predict fluctuations in the unit price of gas and power in the future with the charge fluctuation prediction means. As a result, the energy service fee that can be collected from the customer when the customer introduces gas consuming equipment can be predicted and calculated, so whether or not the predicted energy service fee is lower than the amount paid to the power company If the price is low, the discount rate can be set to increase as the difference between the two increases. Therefore, it is possible to automatically determine an appropriate discount rate. By using this discount rate, it is possible to prevent the loss from occurring, but to reduce the electricity charge when purchasing energy from the power company to the customer. A low amount can be set. As a result, the willingness to introduce gas consuming equipment having a power generation function is increased, leading to the spread of this type of gas consuming equipment.

  According to the configuration of the invention of claim 2, since the loan period can be extended, it is possible to reliably recover the cost related to the gas consuming device.

  According to the configuration of the invention of claim 3, the discount rate is increased during the period when the forecast hit rate is high near the start of the loan period and the forecast hit rate decreases near the end of the loan period. By reducing the discount rate, the possibility of loss due to discount can be reduced.

  According to the configuration of the invention of claim 4, since the gas consuming device is a cogeneration facility and generates thermal energy as well as electrical energy from the gas, the device for generating electrical energy and the device for generating thermal energy are separately provided. Compared to the installation, the gas consumption required to generate the same amount of electric energy and thermal energy is reduced, and the overall gas fee for obtaining electric energy and thermal energy is reduced for the customer. It will be. In other words, because the gas used to generate the necessary thermal energy is also used for the generation of electrical energy, part of the gas fee required for generating electrical energy is converted to the gas fee required for generating thermal energy. As a result, the gas charge required to generate only electric energy is reduced, and as a result, the ratio of gas charges to the amount of money collected from customers to generate only electric energy can be reduced. It becomes possible to increase the discount rate and shorten the loan period.

  In the embodiment of the present invention described below, a cogeneration facility is assumed as the gas consuming device. In the present invention, as shown in FIG. 2, an intermediary entity 1 is interposed between a customer 2 using a cogeneration facility and a lease company 3, and the intermediary entity 1 enters into a lease contract for the cogeneration facility. (P1), and brokerage entity 1 lends cogeneration facilities to customer 2 (P2). That is, by installing the cogeneration facility owned by the brokerage business entity 1 in the customer 2 premises, the customer 2 can introduce the cogeneration facility. The brokerage entity 1 may make a lease contract with the leasing company 3 and purchase the cogeneration facility by installment. In the following description, it is assumed that a lease contract is made.

  Since the customer 2 becomes capable of in-house power generation by introducing the cogeneration facility, the amount of power purchased from the power company can be reduced. Therefore, when the customer 2 generates power by using the cogeneration facility, the brokerage business unit 1 collects a fee according to the amount of power as an energy service fee (P3), and uses the energy service fee as a source to the leasing company 3 Appropriate for lease payment (P4). Therefore, the customer 2 can introduce the equipment without signing a lease contract with the leasing company 4. Energy service fees include basic fees such as interest rates and insurance premiums paid by the brokerage entity 1 to the leasing company 4, gas fees consumed for the operation of cogeneration facilities, and charges for generated electricity. And pay-as-you-go charges. The brokerage entity 1 is established by the investment (P5) of the gas company 3. However, the gas company 3 may be the window for the customer 2 because the gas charge consumed in connection with the operation of the cogeneration facility is collected from the customer 2. Further, the brokerage entity 1 performs maintenance of the cogeneration facility.

  The fee plan support apparatus 10 of the present invention is used by the brokerage business entity 1, and a customer who introduces the cogeneration facility uses the same amount of power energy as the power energy generated by the cogeneration facility from the power company. The discount rate is determined so that the energy service fee to be paid to the brokerage business entity 1 is lower than the electricity rate for purchasing. In the present embodiment, three types of discount rates are prepared assuming that the lending period (actually the period in which the brokerage entity 1 lends the cogeneration facility to the customer 2) is 15 years. (1) Initial 3 years 10%, 3% thereafter, (2) 5% for the first 6 years, 1.5% thereafter, (3) 3% for the first 10 years, and 1% thereafter. That is, a rate plan that sets different discount rates in the initial fixed period T1 (see FIG. 3) and the subsequent period T2 (see FIG. 3) in the lending period is set. The discount rate is greater in period T1 than in period T2. This is because there are more uncertain elements for prediction in the period T2 than in the period T1.

  The charge plan support apparatus 10 is realized by executing an appropriate program on a computer. As shown in FIG. 1, the gas consumption amount of the customer 2 measured by a gas meter 21 and a wattmeter 22 as measurement apparatuses. And a performance storage means 11 for accumulating a history of electricity consumption. When the gas consuming device does not generate heat energy together with electric energy as in the cogeneration facility, but only generates electric energy as in the fuel cell, the result storage means 11 stores the electric consumption. Only the quantity history may be accumulated.

  The actual storage unit 11 stores gas consumption and electricity consumption, for example, in units of one month. By using the data stored in the actual storage unit 11, changes in gas consumption and electricity consumption can be known. ing. It is desirable that data communication is possible between the gas meter 21 and the wattmeter 22 and the charge plan support apparatus 10, but data communication is not essential, and the charge plan support apparatus 10 is provided with gas consumption and electricity consumption for each month. You may enter it manually. The accumulation period of gas consumption and electricity consumption is desirably one year or longer. The gas consumption is a measure of the thermal energy used by the customer 2, and the electricity consumption is a measure of the electrical energy used by the customer 2. Therefore, the customer 2 should introduce the code based on the gas consumption and the electricity consumption. The performance of the generation facility can be determined.

  For the selection of the cogeneration facility, a device database DB1 including a hard disk device that stores specifications of a plurality of types of cogeneration facilities is used. That is, the collation facility 12 has a specification that allows the collation means 12 to collate the average value and the minimum value and the maximum value of the gas consumption and electricity consumption of the customer 2 with the apparatus database DB1 and satisfy these conditions. Are selected from the data stored in the device database DB1. When there are a plurality of cogeneration facility candidates, the cogeneration facility to be introduced is determined in consideration of the delivery date, the price, the desire of the customer 2, and the like.

  If the performance of the cogeneration facility is determined, it is possible to obtain an indication of gas consumption when the thermal energy and electric energy consumed by the customer 2 are covered by the cogeneration facility. That is, the gas consumption prediction means 13 predicts the gas consumption of the customer 2 accompanying the power generation in the cogeneration facility using the history of the gas consumption and the electricity consumption stored in the result storage means 11.

  By the way, in the cogeneration facility, heat energy and electric energy are generated at the same time by the consumption of gas. Therefore, the electricity consumed by the gas consumed to generate the same amount of heat energy that the customer 2 has conventionally consumed. It also generates energy. Now, assuming that the gas consumption required for customer 2 to generate the same amount of thermal energy before and after the introduction of cogeneration equipment is equal, not only thermal energy but also electric energy will be generated after the introduction of cogeneration equipment. As a result, the gas utilization efficiency is improved. The gas consumption required for the generation of thermal energy can be predicted with a relatively high probability, and if the history of the electricity consumption stored in the record storage means 11 is used, the electricity consumption after the introduction of the cogeneration facility The quantity can be predicted with a relatively high probability. Therefore, the electric energy generated together with the heat energy is obtained from the gas consumption required for generating the heat energy, and this electric energy is subtracted from the electric consumption predicted by the performance before the introduction of the cogeneration facility. Since the subtraction result is the amount of electrical energy that must be generated after the introduction of the cogeneration facility by increasing the gas consumption before the introduction, using this subtraction result, the electrical energy after the introduction of the cogeneration facility The gas consumption required only for the production of can be determined. That is, it is possible to predict an increase in the customer's gas consumption accompanying the introduction of cogeneration facilities to generate electricity.

  Since the purpose is to make the energy service fee paid by the customer 2 to the brokerage entity 1 lower than when purchasing electric energy from the power company, it is necessary to predict the power charge of the power company, and the brokerage Since the energy service fee collected by the business entity 1 from the customer 2 includes a gas fee associated with power generation, it is necessary to predict the gas fee. In view of this, the charge plan support device 10 is provided with a charge fluctuation prediction means 14 that predicts fluctuations in the unit price of gas and the unit price of power during the lending period by Monte Carlo simulation. Electric energy generated by hydroelectric power generation or nuclear power generation generally has little fluctuation in unit price of electric power, but electric energy generated by thermal power generation changes in unit price of electric power due to fluctuations in raw material prices. In addition, the main energy source of thermal power generation is imported fuel such as heavy oil, and imported fuel such as natural gas is also used for gas supply. It can be said that the price of raw materials fluctuates. Prediction of such fluctuations in the unit price of power and gas can be predicted with relatively high reliability by using Monte Carlo simulation.

  When the fluctuation of the gas unit price is predicted by the charge fluctuation prediction means 14, the gas charge calculation means 16 obtains the product of the gas consumption predicted by the gas consumption prediction means 12 and the unit price of the gas, thereby obtaining the customer in the lending period. It is possible to calculate the fluctuation of the gas fee paid by. By the way, as shown in FIG. 3, the amount billed by the brokerage entity 1 to the customer 2 is the gas fee V1 paid to the gas company 3 and the principal V2 which is the lease fee of the cogeneration facility paid to the leasing company 4. And interest rate V3, profit V4 and maintenance cost V5 of brokerage entity 1, and risk reserve V6 prepared to cover losses caused by bankruptcy of customer 2 and fluctuations in unit price of power It is the sum. The risk reserve V6 is set to a fixed amount, but to compensate from the risk reserve V6 when the actual unit price (actual amount) of power is higher than the predicted unit price (predicted amount) of power It is prepared, and it is possible to absorb the prediction error of the unit price of power by the risk reserve V6. In this embodiment, the interest rate V3 is not a fixed interest rate, but a variable interest rate is adopted, and the interest rate V3 is reviewed every predetermined period (for example, every year).

  As can be seen from FIG. 3, during the loan period, the gas rate V1 and the interest rate V3 are variable factors, and the principal V2, profit V4, maintenance cost V5, and risk reserve V6 are constant. The interest rate V3 varies but is calculated as a constant value, and the error due to the variation in the interest rate V3 is absorbed by the risk reserve V6. Therefore, the payment amount calculation means 17 uses the fluctuation of the gas charge V1 predicted by the charge fluctuation prediction means 14, and adds the principal V2, the interest rate V3, the profit V4, the maintenance cost V5, and the risk reserve V6 to the gas charge V1. The customer's payment amount for each unit period (for example, one year) of the calculated value is predicted and calculated.

  When the payment amount calculation unit 17 calculates the payment amount for each unit period, it is possible to obtain a difference from the electricity charge for each unit period predicted by the rate fluctuation prediction unit 14. That is, the selection unit 15 obtains the difference between the predicted electricity bill and the predicted payment amount for each unit period, and automatically selects one of the discount rates (1) to (3) described above according to the difference in the payment amount. To choose. When the discount means can be set by the selection means 15, the difference between the electricity charge and the payment amount is divided into three stages, and (1) is selected at the stage where the difference between the electricity charge and the payment amount is maximum. (3) is selected at the stage where is minimum. In the stage where the difference is intermediate, (2) is selected.

  As described above, since the discount rate for the customer 2 can be automatically selected from three types, the electricity charge has been lowered for the customer 2, and the commission is secured by the profit V4 for the brokerage business entity 1. can do. If the gas consuming device is not a cogeneration facility but a gas consuming device that does not generate thermal energy such as a fuel cell, it does not use thermal energy. Is less likely to be able to reduce the energy service fee collected by the power company, but the efficiency of generating electrical energy from fuel and the loss of electrical energy associated with transmission will not occur substantially. It is possible to make the energy service fee paid to the brokerage business entity 1 lower than when purchasing electric energy from the company.

  In the above example, the brokerage entity 1 rents gas consuming equipment from the leasing company 4 through a lease contract. However, when the brokerage entity 1 purchases gas consuming equipment by installment, the repayment amount is increased. If this is done, the period until completion can be shortened compared to the initial contracted period. As described above, since the energy service fee includes a metered fee, the total amount of the energy service fee increases as the metered fee increases. In this case, the brokerage entity 1 can increase the repayment amount, and the loan period for the customer 2 can also be shortened. After paying the price for gas consuming equipment, the loan relationship between brokerage entity 1 and customer 2 is terminated for gas consuming equipment, and customer 2 chooses to continue using or remove the gas consuming equipment. Let

It is a block diagram which shows embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the relationship of a contract. It is a conceptual diagram which shows the breakdown of the money amount estimated in embodiment.

Explanation of symbols

Gas consumption equipment 1 Brokerage company 2 Customer 3 Gas company 4 Leasing company 10 Price plan support device 11 Result storage means 12 Verification means 13 Gas consumption prediction means 14 Charge fluctuation prediction means 15 Selection means 16 Gas charge calculation means 17 Payment amount calculation Means 21 Gas meter (measuring device)
22 Wattmeter (measuring device)
DB1 device database

Claims (4)

  Lending gas consumption equipment that generates electricity using gas as fuel, supporting a service that pays the purchase price of gas consumption equipment using the energy service fee collected from the customer according to the amount of power generated during operation of the gas consumption equipment, In order to discount the energy service fee from the electricity charge when the same amount of energy generated by the operation of gas consuming equipment is purchased from the electric power company, a discount rate according to the customer is selected from a plurality of predetermined discount rates. A charge plan support apparatus that is determined using a computer, the record storage means for accumulating a history of electricity consumption by a customer measured by a measuring device, and the history of electricity consumption stored in the record storage means Gas consumption forecasting means for predicting the customer's gas consumption accompanying power generation by gas consuming equipment, and lending for renting gas consuming equipment to customers The customer pays during the loan period from the price fluctuation prediction means for predicting fluctuations in the gas unit price and power unit price over the period, the gas consumption predicted by the gas consumption prediction means, and the gas unit price predicted by the charge fluctuation prediction means A customer's payment amount for each unit period including at least gas charge calculation means for calculating fluctuations in gas charges, and a gas reserve calculated by the gas charge calculation means and a risk reserve for absorbing prediction errors in the unit price of power The greater the difference between the electricity bill for each unit period calculated from the unit price of power calculated by the payment amount calculation means calculated by the charge fluctuation prediction means and the amount of payment for each unit period calculated by the payment amount calculation means, the greater the discount A rate plan comprising: selection means for selecting one of a plurality of discount rates so that the rate is increased Assistance devices.   2. The fee according to claim 1, wherein the loan period is extended when the total amount of the customer's actual payment is smaller than the total amount of the customer's payment from the start of the loan period calculated by the payment amount calculation means. Planning support device.   The charge plan support apparatus according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the discount rates of the plurality of types are set in a plurality of stages in the loan period so that a start side of the loan period is larger than an end side of the loan period. .   The gas consuming device is a cogeneration facility that outputs heat energy that can be used together with electric energy, and the result storage means stores a history of gas consumption measured by a measuring device together with a history of electric consumption, and the gas consumption The amount prediction means predicts the gas consumption of the customer accompanying the generation of thermal energy by the cogeneration facility from the history of gas consumption accumulated in the result storage means, and the cogeneration facility corresponds to the predicted gas consumption. Predicting the customer's gas consumption associated with power generation using the value obtained by subtracting the electrical energy generated together with the thermal energy from the electrical energy predicted by the customer's actual electricity consumption before the introduction of the cogeneration facility The charge plan support apparatus according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein

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