JP2006244470A - Delivery date reply system, delivery date reply method, and delivery date reply program - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To shorten a delivery date reply response time by increasing precision of sales limit information used in estimating and preparing a delivery date reply. <P>SOLUTION: In this delivery date reply system, sales limits of salable circulating items are allotted in advance, inquiry contents are estimated and prepared from among the sales limits to provide a delivery date reply when accepting a delivery date inquiry, sales limit changing simulation is performed when the inquiry contents are not estimated and prepared in the sales limits, order of priority of sales expected item being a base for preparing the expected sales limit is renewed, and a delivery date desired by a customer, quantity, and contents of items are changed to sales limits to customer satisfaction as much as possible by a means for reading results of the order of priority and preparing a new sale limit used in estimating and preparing an delivery date reply to provide the delivery date reply. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2006,JPO&NCIPI

Description

  The present invention allocates a sales frame of a distribution item that can be sold in advance, and upon receipt of a delivery date inquiry, assigns the inquiry content from the sales frame and answers the delivery date, and the inquiry content is not allocated to the sales frame. In such a case, the present invention relates to a delivery date answering technique in which a delivery time frame is simulated and a delivery date reply is made after changing the delivery date, quantity, item content, etc. desired by the customer to a sales quota that satisfies as much as possible.

  In general, a function for allocating a sales frame of a distribution item that can be sold in advance, receiving a delivery date inquiry, assigning the inquiry content from the sales frame, and answering the delivery date is called an ATP (Available To Promise) function. If the inquiry content is not allocated to the sales quota, a sales quota change simulation is performed to change the delivery date, quantity, item content, etc. desired by the customer to a sales quota that satisfies as much as possible, and answer the delivery date. This function is called CTP (Capable To Promise) function.

  As a technique related to such a delivery date answer, for example, a technique described in Patent Document 1 is known.

  In addition, the technology described in Patent Document 2 is a technology (seat reservation method) related to a delivery date response that creates a production schedule after receiving an order and matches a plan with a customer request separately from the technology related to the delivery date response by ATP / CTP. Are known.

Japanese Patent No. 3327235 JP 2004-157922 A

  In recent years, diversification of customer needs has progressed, and product variations have increased compared to conventional products. Under such circumstances, the assembly production site flexibly responds to diversification of customer needs by creating a mixed flow line that assembles and produces many types of items on the same line. However, on the other hand, the increase in product variation causes a decrease in demand forecast accuracy, system processing time, business efficiency, etc., and as a result, management and practical problems such as an increase in response time for delivery date and an increase in inventory shortage Is starting to occur.

  Therefore, an object of the present invention is to shorten the delivery time response time by improving the accuracy of the sales frame information used for the delivery date delivery.

  The present invention manages a distribution item that can be sold as a sales frame that stores at least the item identification information and the quantity information in correspondence with each saleable point of time, and the sales frame is the item that has been ordered from the customer. The system includes a sales frame data table that manages information separately for a fixed sales frame that stores information and an estimated sales frame that stores information on items that are expected to be determined based on demand forecasts based on shipment results. Then, upon receipt of the delivery date inquiry, if the inquiry item can be allocated from the expected sales frame, a delivery date is answered, and if the inquiry item cannot be allocated from the estimated sales frame, the sales frame Implement a change simulation to change the expected sales limit in the sales limit data table so that the customer's desired delivery date, quantity, and item content are satisfied or partially satisfied, and return the delivery date to the inquiry It is an answer system. Further, based on the history data and the history of accepting the delivery date inquiry and the history of executing the sales quota change simulation, the sales quota change simulation occupying the number of inquiries per unit time was implemented. The ratio of the number of cases is calculated, the value is compared with a predetermined reference value, and when the predetermined reference value is exceeded, the arithmetic processing means detects the change, and the arithmetic processing means is the change Means for updating the priority order of the prospective sales item that is the basis for generating the prospective sales quota, and the sales margin generation means for generating a new prospective sales frame based on the result of the updated priority And a system characterized by comprising:

  According to the present invention, by providing a series of means for increasing the accuracy of the sales frame information used for the delivery date response allocation, the frequency of performing the sales frame change simulation is reduced when an order is received. Shortening can be achieved.

  Further, according to the present invention, since an optimal solution that satisfies the goal of reducing parts inventory excess and deficiency is calculated and a sales frame is generated, it is possible to reduce inventory excess and deficiency.

  Furthermore, according to the present invention, other effects such as an improvement in demand prediction accuracy, an improvement in the delivery rate compliance rate, and a reduction in system load such as sales frame change simulation processing can be expected.

Hereinafter, an embodiment of a delivery date reply system according to the present invention will be described.
<< Overall configuration of the delivery date answering system >>
A distribution network model to which the delivery date reply system according to the present embodiment can be applied and the configuration of the delivery date reply system according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. As shown in FIG. 1, the distribution network model is such that items 6 such as products, parts, semi-finished products, work-in-progress, and raw materials are finally transferred from the supplier ε to the factory β, the sales company α, etc. A model leading to market δ is assumed.

  On the other hand, the delivery date reply system is a system that manages plan information, actual result information, various parameters, etc., and realizes delivery date reply. The delivery date answering system includes a sales company side terminal 1 arranged in a sales company α, a factory side terminal 2 arranged in a factory β, and a management center side terminal 3 arranged in a management center γ. . Each of the terminals 1 to 3 is connected to the network 4, and each of the terminals 1 to 3 can transmit and receive various data and the like via the network 4. As shown in FIG. 5, each of the terminals 1 to 3 is a computer, such as an input device 32 such as a keyboard and a mouse, an output device 33 such as a display, an auxiliary storage device 34, a delivery date reply program, and the like. And an arithmetic unit 31 that executes various programs. The arithmetic device 31 includes a central processing unit (hereinafter referred to as CPU) 31A, a main storage device 31B, and an interface 31C. The arithmetic device 31 is connected to an input device 32, an output device 33, and an auxiliary storage device 34 via an interface 31C.

  In the present embodiment, execution results of various programs such as a delivery date reply program are stored in a storage area secured in the main storage device 31B. Various programs are stored in advance in the auxiliary storage device 34, then read into the main storage device 31B, and executed by the CPU 31A. Various functions described later are realized by the execution of various programs by the CPU 31A.

  In this embodiment, the case where each terminal constituting the delivery date answering system is realized by a general-purpose information processing apparatus and software will be described as an example. For example, hardware including hard-wired logic or such hardware Alternatively, it may be realized by a pre-programmed general-purpose information processing apparatus.

  In this embodiment, the delivery date answering system is described as a system that performs distributed processing, but the present invention is not limited to this. The present invention may be configured to be incorporated in other information processing systems and function as a part thereof. In addition, a part of each terminal function may be rearranged, subdivided, or combined.

Next, functional configurations of the terminals 1 to 3 constituting the delivery date reply system and data held by the terminals 1 to 3 will be described with reference to FIGS. 2 to 4 and FIGS.
《Commercial device side configuration and retained data content》
As shown in FIG. 2, the sales company side terminal 1 of the present embodiment includes a calculation unit 110 that executes various programs, a storage unit 120 that stores various data, and an input / output unit 130 that inputs and outputs various data. And a network IF unit 140 for connecting to the network 4.

  The calculation unit 110 includes an order data management unit 111 that performs input / output of order data, registration in the storage unit 120, and the like, and a shipment result data management unit 112 that performs input / output of item shipment result data and registration in the storage unit 120. And having. As described above, the functional units 111 and 112 of the calculation unit 110 function when the CPU 31A executes various programs. Details of the operations of the functional units 111 and 112 will be described later in the description of the processing flow.

  The storage unit 120 includes an order data storage unit 121 in which order information received from a customer is stored, and a shipment result data storage unit 122 in which the shipment results of items shipped to the customer are stored.

  The order data storage unit 121 stores order data such as an order number, received item identification information, customer information, delivery date, number of units, delivery date inquiry time, order receipt time. Specifically, as shown in FIG. 6, in the order data storage unit 121, a field 1211 for registering an order number issued each time an order is received, a field 1212 for registering identification information of an item received, and a customer A field 1213 for registering information, a field 1214 for registering a delivery date, a field 1215 for registering the number of items ordered, a field 1216 for registering information at the time of delivery date inquiry, and a field 1217 for registering information at the time of order receipt The order data is updated every time an order is received.

The shipment record data storage unit 122 stores shipment record data such as a shipment number, identification information of items to be shipped, shipment destination information, number of units, and shipment time. Specifically, as shown in FIG. 7, the item data storage unit 122 has a field 1221 for registering a shipping number issued when shipping, a field 1222 for registering identification information of items to be shipped, and a shipping destination. It has a field 1223 for registering information, a field 1224 for registering the number of shipped items, and a field 1225 for registering information at the time of shipment, and the shipping record data is updated every time it is shipped.
《Factory terminal configuration and retained data content》
As shown in FIG. 3, the factory-side terminal 2 of the present embodiment includes an arithmetic unit 210 that executes various programs, a storage unit 220 that stores various data, a peripheral device such as a keyboard and a display, and various data input. An input / output unit 230 that performs output and a network IF unit 240 for connecting to the network 4 are included.

  The calculation unit 210 includes a demand prediction unit 211 that performs item demand prediction, input / output of demand prediction data, registration in the storage unit 220, and inventory status data that performs input / output of inventory data, registration in the storage unit 220, and the like. Management unit 212, sales frame data generation, sales frame plan generation (sales frame change simulation, etc.), sales frame data transmission to the management center side terminal 3, etc., and a priority order master A priority master data management unit 214 that performs input / output, registration in the storage unit 220, and the like. As described above, the functional units 211, 212, 213, and 214 of the arithmetic unit 210 function when the CPU 31A executes various programs. Details of operations of these functional units 211, 212, 213, and 214 will be described later in the description of the processing flow.

  The storage unit 220 stores a demand prediction data storage unit 221 in which the result of demand prediction is stored, an inventory status data storage unit 222 in which item inventory information is stored, and information on items scheduled to be delivered from the supplier ε to the factory β. The delivery schedule data storage unit 223 to be stored, the item configuration master data storage unit 224 in which information on the upper / lower relevance and number of items is stored, production capacity information related to production, production time for each item, etc. It has a production capacity master data storage unit 225 for storing information, and a priority order master data storage unit 226 for storing priority item priority information related to the generation of sales slots.

  The demand prediction data storage unit 221 stores a demand prediction result 2211 for each top-level item, a lower item mounting rate prediction result 2212, and a demand prediction result 2213 for each lower item. Specifically, in the 2211 of the demand forecast data storage unit 221, as shown in the upper diagram of FIG. 8, a field 2211a for registering identification information of the highest item, and a field 2211b for registering the point in time when the demand forecast is performed, , A field 2211c for registering the prediction target time point, and a field 2211d for registering the demand forecast number. Note that the number of demand forecasts for each top-level item is based on the forecast method such as the moving average method, where the number of top items in the shipment performance data is summarized for each top-level item using item configuration master data described later. It may also be calculated by the person in charge at the sales company directly. Further, as shown in the middle diagram of FIG. 8, a field 2212 a for registering identification information for the highest item, a field 2212 b for registering identification information for lower items, and a demand prediction are stored in the 2212 of the demand prediction data storage unit 221. A field 2212c for registering a point in time when the operation is performed, a field 2212d for registering a prediction target point, and a field 2212e for registering a predicted mounting rate. The lower item mounting rate is the sum of the number of upper items in the shipping record data in the unit of the highest item, which is expanded to the lower item level using the item configuration master data described later, and the number of items in the lower item unit is summarized. You can calculate the percentage by dividing it by the total number of units shipped in the top item and calculate it based on a forecasting method such as the moving average method, Good. Further, as shown in the lower diagram of FIG. 8, a field 2213 a for registering identification information of the highest item, a field 2213 b for registering identification information of lower items, and a demand prediction are stored in 2213 of the demand prediction data storage unit 221. It has a field 2213c for registering the implemented time point, a field 2213d for registering the prediction target time point, and a field 2213e for registering the demand forecast number. Note that the demand forecast quantity of the lower item is calculated based on the demand forecast result of the highest item and the wearing rate forecast result of the lower item. For example, the demand forecast number 80 of the lower item demand forecast result 2213f is obtained by multiplying the demand forecast quantity 100 of the demand forecast result 2211e of the top item by the forecast fit rate 80% of the lower item wear rate forecast result 2212f. Yes.

  The reason why the demand prediction as described above is performed is because there is a trend that product variations in recent years tend to increase. There is a high possibility that the accuracy of the demand forecast value according to the conventional method for forecasting demand in the upper item unit will be lowered in the future. Therefore, in the embodiment of the present invention, the demand prediction is performed by the above-described new demand prediction method.

  The stock status data storage unit 222 stores stock status data such as information on the location where the item is stored, identification information of the stored item, the number of stocks, the stock status, and the time when the stock status is updated. Specifically, as shown in FIG. 9, the inventory status data storage unit 222 includes a field 2221 for registering information on a place where the item is stored, and a field 2222 for registering identification information of the stored item. , A field 2223 for registering the number of inventory, a field 2224 for registering the inventory status, and a field 2225 for registering a point in time when the inventory status is updated. Here, the “stock” in the stock status is a status that exists as stock in the storage location β, and the “work in progress” is the stock status during production.

  In the delivery schedule data storage unit 223, for each order / indication number, the order / indication sub-item identification information, the order / indication quantity, the order / indication destination (supplier), the indication / ordering / delivery instruction, etc. Delivery schedule data such as information and progress status is stored. Specifically, as shown in FIG. 10, in the delivery schedule data storage unit 223, a field 2231 for registering an order / indication number, a field 2232 for registering identification information of an order / indication subordinate item, and an order / indication A field 2233 for registering the ordered quantity, a field 2234 for registering order / indication destination (supplier) information, a field 2235 for registering information at the indicated time, a field 2236 for registering information at the time of ordering, and a delivery It has a field 2237 for registering information at the time of instructing and a field 2238 for registering the progress status.

The item configuration master data storage unit 224 stores item configuration master data such as the relationship between the top item and the upper item, the relationship between the upper item and the lower item, and the number of members. Specifically, as shown in the lower left diagram of FIG. 11, the item configuration master data storage unit 224 includes a field 2241 for registering identification information of the highest item and a field 2242 for registering identification information of the upper item. These represent the relationship between the top item and the top item.
Further, as shown in the lower right diagram of FIG. 11, it has a field 2243 for registering identification information of the upper item, a field 2244 for registering identification information of the lower item, and a field 2245 for registering the number of members. To express the relationship between the upper item and the lower item. In the figure in the box 2240 in the upper diagram of FIG. 11, the highest item (model 1) is composed of upper items x1, x2,..., And the upper item x1 has one each of a, b, and d. It is composed of subordinate items.

  The production capacity master data storage unit 225 stores production capacity master data such as production capacity information 2251 related to production and production time 2252 for each item. Specifically, in the production capacity master data storage unit 225 2251, as shown in the upper diagram of FIG. 12, a field 2251a for registering the identification information of the factory that produces the upper item and the time frame of the sales frame are registered. It has a field 2251b, a field 2251c for registering production capacity within a fixed time (for example, the unit of capacity is time), and a field 2251d for registering overtime capacity. Further, in the production capacity master data storage unit 225 2252, as shown in the lower diagram of FIG. 12, a field 2252a for registering identification information of the upper item, a field 2252b for registering the number of lower items attached, And a field 2252c for registering the production time (= time until the upper item is completed after the lower item is attached).

The priority master data storage unit 226 stores priority item priority information related to the generation of sales slots. Specifically, as shown in FIG. 13, the priority master data storage unit 226 preferentially sorts a field 2261 for registering priority and a field 2262 for registering identification information of higher items. And a field 2263 for registering preset weights (the higher the priority, the higher the priority). A record 2260 in FIG. 13 indicates that the item x8 has the highest rank and is set with a weight that can be preferentially selected.
<< Configuration of management center side terminal and retained data contents >>
As shown in FIG. 4, the management center side terminal 3 of the present embodiment includes a calculation unit 310 that executes various programs, a storage unit 320 that stores various data, and an input / output unit 330 that inputs and outputs various data. And a network IF unit 340 for connecting to the network 4.

  The calculation unit 310 issues a delivery date inquiry number, registers delivery date inquiry data in the storage unit 320, delivery date response processing, determination using delivery date inquiry data (delivery date response response determination), priority calculation, and factory for new priority results Delivery date inquiry data management unit 311 that performs transmission to the side terminal 2, input / output of sales frame data, registration of the sales frame data in the storage unit 320, transmission of sales frame data to the factory side terminal 2, sales frame data Sales frame data management unit 312 for performing update, determination using sales frame data (inventory retention determination), collation of delivery date inquiry data and sales frame data, registration of collation result in storage unit 320, factory of collation result A sales frame verification unit 313 that performs transmission to the side terminal 2 and the like. As described above, the functional units 311, 312, and 313 of the calculation unit 310 function when the CPU 31 </ b> A executes various programs. Details of operations of these functional units 311, 312, and 313 will be described later in the description of the processing flow.

  The storage unit 320 includes a delivery date inquiry data storage unit 321 in which a history of delivery date inquiry is stored, a sales frame data storage unit 322 in which sales frames of items that have been sold or sold are stored, and a delivery date response response index that will be described later. And a determination criterion master data storage unit 323 in which a determination criterion for comparison with the stock retention index is stored.

  The delivery date inquiry data storage unit 321 stores a delivery date inquiry history. Specifically, as shown in FIG. 14, in the delivery date inquiry data storage unit 321, a field 3211 for registering an inquiry number issued every time there is a delivery date query, and a field 3212 for registering a point in time when there is a delivery date query, A field 3213 for registering the requested item that has been inquired, a field 3214 for registering the specified delivery date, a field 3215 for registering the requested number of items, a field 3216 for registering the point in time when the sales frame is allocated, and a delivery date determination It has a field 3217 for registering the result, a field 3218 for registering whether or not the sales quota plan generation process is activated without being assigned to a pre-allocated sales quota, and a field 3219 for registering the assigned region.

  The sales frame data storage unit 322 stores sales frames of items that have been sold or are available for sale. Specifically, as shown in FIG. 15, in the sales frame data storage unit 322, a field 3221 for registering an order number, a field 3222 for registering an inquiry number, a field 3223 for registering a time axis of a sales frame, A field 3224 for registering the identification information of the upper item, a field 3225 for registering the sales quota allocation status, a field 3226 for registering the requested number, a field 3227 for registering the inventory status, and a field for registering the sales frame plan generation history 3228. Here, the contents of the sales frame will be described with reference to FIG. From time t to time t + i−1 is the time when the item is being produced or has been produced, and time t + i is the final time limit for modifying the sales quota. Further, t + k is a sales frame generation target time point, and is also a time point when a necessary subordinate item is shown to the supplier ε. The sales frame is generated and modified every unit time (for example, one week). Area 1 refers to an area in which the quantity of subordinate items used for production is already determined at each time point. In the example shown in FIG. 21, in the region 1, all the sales frames stacked at the time point t of the sales time are confirmed sales frames, and the sales frame at the time point t cannot be allocated to the requested upper item. Further, there is a prospective sales frame from the time t + 1 to the time t + i−1, but the sales frame cannot be changed because the upper item to be put into the production line has already been determined. However, with respect to the prospective sales frame existing from the time point t + i to the time point t + i−k, the sales frame can be changed within a range in which the lower item requirement amount is not changed even when there is no matching request upper item. For example, at t + k−1, the lower items required by the upper items x1, x2, x5, and x8 have already been arranged, but a combination of other upper items that can be produced using these arranged lower items. Changes to are possible. On the other hand, the area 2 is an area in which the inferior item is not yet shown, and from the time point t + k + 1 to the time point t + n, the requested upper item can be stacked as a sales frame within a range not exceeding the production capacity upper limit. It is an area. In the case where it is not possible to allocate the inquiry upper item in the area 1 and the area 2, the requested items are stacked in the area 3 where no upper limit is set for the production capacity.

The determination criterion master data storage unit 323 stores determination criteria for comparison with a delivery date response response index and an inventory retention index, which will be described later. Specifically, as shown in FIG. 16, in the determination criterion master data storage unit 323, a field 3231 for registering identification information of the highest item, a field 3232 for registering an inventory retention criterion, and a delivery date response response criterion are registered. Field 3233 to be used.
《Sales quota generation processing》
The sales frame generation processing will be described with reference to FIG. In the sales frame generation process, the sales company side terminal 1 reads the shipment result data and transmits the data to the factory side terminal 2 (S1701), and the factory side terminal 2 performs demand prediction and sales frame generation (S1702). And the management center side terminal 3 includes three steps of processing (S1703) of registering the sales frame data in the sales frame data storage unit 322.

Hereinafter, the sales frame generation method of S1702 will be described. First, demand forecast information at the time point t + k is acquired from the demand forecast data storage unit 221 (lower item demand forecast 2213). Further, the requirement information of the lower item for the upper item is acquired from the item configuration master data storage unit 224. Next, a combined optimization problem modeled by linear programming is solved in order to determine the optimal sales volume of the upper items. The contents of the model will be described below. If the set of top items is I, each top item is i, the sales volume of _i is x _i , and the total sales volume of the top items is G, the total sales volume of the top items must match the sales forecast volume. Therefore, Formula (1) is materialized.

下位アイテムの集合をJ、各下位アイテムをj、上位アイテムiを一台生産するのに必要な下位アイテムjの数量をM_ijとすると、M_ijは、アイテム構成マスタデータ記憶部２２４の構成員数２２４５から得られる。例えば、上位アイテムx1に下位アイテムａ、ｂ、ｄが各１個必要である時、M_1a=1、M_1b=1、M_1c=0、M_1d=1、となる。

Aggregating J subordinate items, each lower item j, when the quantity of lower item j required to produce a single high-order item i and M _ij, M _ij is arrangement Number of items constituting the master data storage section 224 2245. For example, when one lower item a, b, d is required for the upper item x1, M _1a = 1, M _1b = 1, M _1c = 0, M _1d = 1.

When the predicted number 2213e of the lower item j acquired from the demand prediction data storage unit 221 (lower item demand prediction 2213) is D _j , in order to produce the upper item using the lower items that are procured according to the demand prediction without excess or deficiency. In this case, the total quantity of the lower items obtained by expanding the upper item only needs to match the predicted number 2213e. The number of subordinate items used can be expressed as a sum of x × M. For example, add the number of x1 units sold by 30 and the number of members of a to 1 to the number of units of 18 units of x2 and the number of members of the subordinate item a by 18 units. By sequentially adding all the upper items, the required amount of the lower item a can be obtained. In FIG. 20, the required calculation amount of the lower item a is 95. There may be a discrepancy between the calculated required amount and the predicted required amount. If the positive deviation between the calculated requirement amount and the predicted requirement amount of the lower item is d ⁺ , and the negative deviation is d ⁻ , the positive deviation of the lower item j is d _j ⁺ and the negative deviation is dj ⁻ . The constraint equation (2) is established.

生産時における下位アイテムの欠如や、過剰な下位アイテムの在庫を回避するためには、下位アイテムの乖離が０であれば良い。したがって、すべての下位アイテムの予測値からの乖離の合計を最小化する目的関数を、式（３）で与える。

In order to avoid the lack of subordinate items during production and the inventory of excessive subordinate items, the divergence of subordinate items may be zero. Therefore, the objective function that minimizes the total deviation from the predicted values of all the lower items is given by Equation (3).

上記のモデルに、ｔ＋ｋ時点の需要予測情報や下位アイテムの所要量情報を入力し、線形計画法により解くことで、部品の過不足が最小となるアイテムx_iの台数を算出することができる。この結果得られた上位アイテムの組み合わせとその台数を、ｔ＋ｋ時点の見込販売枠とする。
《納期問合せから注文受付処理までの処理》
納期問合せから注文受付処理までの処理を、図１８を用いて説明する。納期問合せから注文受付処理までの処理は、販社側端末１による問合せデータ入力処理（Ｓ１８０１）、管理センタ側端末による販売枠照合処理（Ｓ１８０２）、工場側端末２による販売枠案生成処理（Ｓ１８０３）、管理センタ側端末３による販売枠案登録処理（Ｓ１８０４）、納期回答データ読込み送信処理（Ｓ１８０５）、納期回答結果出力処理（Ｓ１８０６）、注文データ入力処理（Ｓ１８０７）、および販売枠更新処理（Ｓ１８０８）の８つの処理から構成される。以下、各処理の詳細を述べる。
（１）問合せデータ入力処理（Ｓ１８０１）
販社側端末１について、問合せデータを登録する。例えば、図２７に示すような「納期問合せ入力」画面より、要求アイテム、要求台数、希望納期を登録する。納期問合せボタン２７１の押下により、問合せデータが管理センタ側端末３に送信される。
（２）販売枠照合処理（Ｓ１８０２）
管理センタ側端末３は、販売枠データを販売枠データ記憶部３２２から読み込む。ここで販売枠と照合し、照合した結果を納期問合せデータ記憶部３２１に登録する。照合処理の詳細を図２２に示す。要求アイテムを見込販売枠で引当できた場合は処理Ｓ１８０５へ遷移する。見込販売枠に引当できなかった場合は、照合結果を工場側端末２に送信する。
（３）販売枠案生成処理（Ｓ１８０３）
工場側端末２では、各種データを読込み、販売枠案の生成を行う。処理の詳細を図２３−ａおよび図２３−ｂに示す。

By inputting demand prediction information at the time point t + k and necessary item information of lower-level items into the above model and solving by linear programming, the number of items x _i that minimizes the excess or shortage of parts can be calculated. The combination of the higher-level items obtained as a result and the number of the higher-order items are set as the expected sales frame at the time point t + k.
《Processing from delivery date inquiry to order reception processing》
Processes from the delivery date inquiry to the order reception process will be described with reference to FIG. The processing from the delivery date inquiry to the order reception processing includes inquiry data input processing by the sales company side terminal 1 (S1801), sales frame collation processing by the management center side terminal (S1802), and sales frame plan generation processing by the factory side terminal 2 (S1803). Sales frame plan registration processing (S1804), delivery date response data reading and transmission processing (S1805), delivery date response result output processing (S1806), order data input processing (S1807), and sales frame update processing (S1808) 8). Details of each process will be described below.
(1) Inquiry data input process (S1801)
Inquiry data is registered for the terminal 1 on the sales company side. For example, the requested item, the requested number of machines, and the desired delivery date are registered from the “delivery date inquiry input” screen as shown in FIG. When the delivery date inquiry button 271 is pressed, inquiry data is transmitted to the management center side terminal 3.
(2) Sales frame matching process (S1802)
The management center side terminal 3 reads the sales frame data from the sales frame data storage unit 322. Here, the sales frame is collated, and the collation result is registered in the delivery date inquiry data storage unit 321. Details of the verification process are shown in FIG. If the requested item can be allocated in the expected sales frame, the process proceeds to step S1805. If the prospective sales quota cannot be allocated, the verification result is transmitted to the factory side terminal 2.
(3) Sales frame plan generation processing (S1803)
The factory side terminal 2 reads various data and generates a sales frame plan. Details of the processing are shown in FIGS. 23A and 23B.

  Assuming that the desired delivery date is t + f and there is a delivery date inquiry for the upper item x1, the process for allocating the prospective sales quota will be described with reference to FIG.

  Currently, four upper items x3, x4, x5, and x6 are allocated to the sales frame at the time point t + f. Of these, x5 and x6 are final sales slots and cannot be changed. x3 and x4 are prospective sales slots, and these two items can be changed. x3 and x4 are expanded into lower items, and higher items that can be produced by combining these lower items are searched according to the above-described sales frame generation method. As a result of the search, it is found that x1 and x2 can be produced, and x1 is assigned to the requested item as a new confirmed sales frame, and x2 is registered as a prospective sales frame plan.

The generated sales frame plan is transmitted from the factory side terminal 2 to the management center side terminal 3.
(4) Sales frame plan registration processing (S1804)
In the management center side terminal 3, the sales frame plan transmitted from the factory side terminal 2 is stored in the storage unit 320, and the collation result is reflected in the delivery date inquiry data storage unit 321.
(5) Delivery date response data reading and sending process (S1805)
The management center side terminal 3 generates delivery date response data. Delivery date response data such as “Delivery OK” that allows the requested items to be delivered according to the delivery date, “Delivery NG” that does not meet the delivery date, and “Presentation alternative” that displays the earliest delivery date that can be delivered the earliest if the delivery date is not met Is generated based on the allocation time field 3216 and the delivery date determination field 3217 of the delivery date inquiry data storage unit 321, and transmitted to the sales company side terminal 1.
(6) Delivery date response result output process (S1806)
The received delivery date response result is output to the output device of the sales company side terminal 1. An example of the delivery date response result screen is shown in the lower part of FIG.
(7) Order data input process (S1807)
When the user of the sales company side terminal 1 confirms the delivery date answer result by the sales company side terminal 1 and is satisfied with the result and proceeds to the order as it is, the order data is input using the input / output unit of the sales company side terminal 1, Register order data. When registration is performed, the order data is transmitted to the management center terminal 3 and accepted as a formal order.
(8) Sales frame update processing (S1808)
When the official order data is received from the sales company side terminal 1, the management center side terminal 3 performs sales frame update processing and transmits a notice of acceptance of the order to the sales company side terminal 1.
《Sales quota correction processing》
The sales frame correction process will be described with reference to FIG. The sales frame update processing includes inventory stay determination processing by the management center side terminal 3 (S1901), delivery date response response determination (S1902), sales frame update processing by the factory side terminal (S1903), and sales frame registration processing by the management center side terminal. It consists of four steps (S1904). Details of each step will be described below.
(1) Inventory stay determination process (S1901)
The management center side terminal 3 reads the sales frame data every unit time. In the sales frame, there are a fixed sales frame associated with the received order and an expected sales frame not associated with the specific order. If the ratio of the expected sales quota to the entire sales quota is large, it is considered that there is a problem in the accuracy of the forecast. The procedure for stock retention determination will be described with reference to FIG. First, an inventory retention index is calculated. The inventory retention index is the ratio of the expected number of units to the forecasted number of units. In the example of FIG. 25, the inventory retention index is 64%. Next, the calculated inventory retention index is compared with the inventory retention reference value obtained from the determination criterion master data storage unit 323. When the inventory retention reference value registered in the determination criterion master data is 60%, the value of the inventory retention index exceeds this value, so it is determined that the determination result is NG, and the flow shifts to S1902. If the value of the stock retention index does not exceed the stock retention reference value, it is determined that the accuracy of the demand prediction is sufficiently high, and the sales quota is not corrected. Here, it is described that the stock stagnation determination is performed every unit time, but may be performed every time a delivery date inquiry occurs.
(2) Delivery date response response determination (S1902)
If the management center side terminal 3 determines NG in S1901, it performs a delivery date response response determination. Hereinafter, the procedure for determining the delivery date response will be described with reference to FIG. First, the number of payment inquiries, the number of sales frame proposals generated, and the requested total number information are acquired and aggregated for each upper item. A delivery date response response index is calculated using the result. The delivery date response index is the ratio of the number of sales frame proposals to the number of inquiries. It is considered that the higher this ratio is, the more sales frame proposals are generated at the time of answering the delivery date, and the response of the delivery date answer is also worse. Next, the calculated delivery date response response index is compared with the delivery date response response reference value obtained from the determination criterion master data storage unit 323 to make a determination. In the example of FIG. 26, since the delivery date response response index exceeds the reference value, the determination is NG. When the determination is NG, the priority order data is transmitted to the factory side terminal 2. The factory side terminal 2 performs priority order master update processing. FIG. 26 shows a state in which the priority order of the upper items is switched in descending order of the number of inquiries.
(3) Sales frame update processing (S1903)
The sales frame is updated using the updated priority master. An index for assigning more items with a large number of inquiries to the sales space is added to the above-described linear planning model in the sales space generation. First, the items in the generated sales slots are rearranged in the descending order of the number of units and given ranks, and the ranks of the priority rank master are compared for each item. If there is a difference in rank, the weight value is added as a penalty, and the total penalty value is added to the objective function to solve the optimization problem that minimizes the penalty. As a result, it is possible to generate a sales frame with a large number of items with high priority and a small number of items with low priority.
(4) Sales frame registration process (S1904)
The factory side terminal 2 transmits the updated sales frame to the management center side terminal 3. The management center terminal 3 registers the received sales frame data in the sales frame data storage unit 322. In addition, a delivery date response response index and an inventory retention index are output to the output device so that the planner can grasp the accuracy of the sales frame prediction. FIG. 28 shows an example of sales frame prediction accuracy and sales frame display means. By referring to the sales prediction accuracy index, it is possible to quantitatively analyze the stock retention and the response to the delivery date response, and to examine the countermeasure. For example, as shown in FIG. 29, it is considered that an appropriate sales prediction accuracy can be maintained if the stock retention standard is low and the delivery date response is low. However, even if the inventory retention standard is low, a high response to the delivery date indicates that there is a tendency to frequently generate sales quota proposals despite a high proportion of fixed sales quotas. Measures such as increasing the number can be considered. In addition, if the inventory retention standard is high and the response date response is low, it is likely that a relatively large number of prospective sales quotas remain and the number of inquiries regarding the delivery date itself tends to be small. Etc. are required. Conversely, if the inventory retention standard is high and the response to delivery date is high, there are many inquiries, but it is almost impossible to allocate to the fixed sales limit, and there is a problem with the prediction accuracy itself, so consider improving the internal structure. There is a need to. For example, as described in the present embodiment, a review of the prospective sales frame by updating the priority order of item selection is one method.

It is explanatory drawing which shows the delivery date reply system structure of one Embodiment which concerns on this invention. It is a functional block diagram of the sales company side terminal of one Embodiment which concerns on this invention. It is a functional block diagram of the factory side terminal of one Embodiment which concerns on this invention. It is a functional block diagram of the management center side terminal of one Embodiment which concerns on this invention. It is a hardware block diagram of each terminal in the delivery date reply system of one Embodiment concerning this invention. It is explanatory drawing which shows the data structure of the order data storage part of one Embodiment which concerns on this invention. It is explanatory drawing which shows the data structure of the shipment performance data storage part of one Embodiment which concerns on this invention. It is explanatory drawing which shows the data structure of the demand forecast data storage part of one Embodiment which concerns on this invention. It is explanatory drawing which shows the data structure of the inventory condition data storage part of one Embodiment which concerns on this invention. It is explanatory drawing which shows the data structure of the delivery schedule data storage part of one Embodiment which concerns on this invention. It is explanatory drawing which shows the data structure of the item structure master data storage part of one Embodiment which concerns on this invention. It is explanatory drawing which shows the data structure of the production capacity master data storage part of one Embodiment which concerns on this invention. It is explanatory drawing which shows the data structure of the priority order master data storage part of one Embodiment which concerns on this invention. It is explanatory drawing which shows the data structure of the delivery date inquiry data storage part of one Embodiment which concerns on this invention. It is explanatory drawing which shows the data structure of the sales frame data storage part of one Embodiment which concerns on this invention. It is explanatory drawing which shows the data structure of the determination reference | standard master data storage part of one Embodiment which concerns on this invention. It is a schematic sequence diagram of sales frame generation of one embodiment concerning the present invention. It is a schematic sequence diagram from the delivery date inquiry to order reception processing of one embodiment concerning the present invention. It is a schematic sequence diagram of sales frame correction of one embodiment concerning the present invention. It is a figure for explaining supplementary processing of S1702. It is a figure for explaining supplementary processing of S1702. It is a figure for demonstrating the process of S1802 in detail. It is FIG. 1 for demonstrating the process of S1803 in detail. It is FIG. 2 for demonstrating the process of S1803 in detail. It is a figure for explaining supplementary processing of S1803. It is a figure for demonstrating the process of S1901 in detail. It is a figure for demonstrating the process of S1902 in detail. It is a figure for explaining supplementary processing of S1801. It is a figure for supplementary explanation of processing of S1904. It is a figure for supplementary explanation of processing of S1904.

Explanation of symbols

1 ... Sales company side terminal, 2 ... Factory side terminal, 3 ... Management center side terminal, 4 ... Network, 5 ... Transportation means, 6 ... Item, 31 ... Calculation device, 32 ... Input device, 33 ... Output device, 34 ... Auxiliary Storage device 31A ... Central processing unit (CPU), 31B ... Main storage device, 31C ... Interface, 110, 210, 310 ... Calculation unit of each terminal,
120, 220, 320 ... storage unit of each terminal, 130, 230, 330 ... input / output unit of each terminal,
140, 240, 340 ... Network IF part of each terminal, 111 ... Order data management part,
112 ... Shipment result data management unit, 211 ... Demand prediction unit, 212 ... Inventory status data management unit, 213 ... Sales frame generation unit, 214 ... Priority order master data management unit,
311 ... Delivery date inquiry data management department, 312 ... Sales quota data management department,
313 ... Sales limit verification unit, 121 ... Order data storage unit, 122 ... Shipment result data storage unit, 221 ... Demand forecast data storage unit, 222 ... Inventory status data storage unit,
223 ... Delivery schedule data storage unit, 224 ... Item configuration master data storage unit,
225 ... Production capacity master data storage unit, 226 ... Priority order master data storage unit,
321 ... Delivery date inquiry data storage unit, 322 ... Sales frame data storage unit,
323 ... Judgment standard master data storage

Claims (9)

The distribution items that can be sold are managed as sales slots that store at least the item identification information and the quantity information in correspondence with each point of sale, and the sales frame contains information on items that have been ordered by customers. It has a sales frame data table that is managed by dividing it into a fixed sales frame and an estimated sales frame that stores information on items that are expected to be determined based on demand forecasts based on shipment results,
If you can receive the inquiry item from the expected sales frame when you accept the delivery date inquiry, answer the delivery date,
If the inquiry item cannot be allocated from the expected sales quota, a sales quota change simulation is performed, and the delivery date, quantity, and item content desired by the customer are satisfied or partially satisfied. A delivery date answering system that changes the expected sales quota in the sales quota data table and answers the delivery date to the inquiry.
Based on the history data and the history of receiving the delivery date inquiry and the history of executing the sales quota change simulation, the ratio of the number of cases where the sales quota change simulation was accounted for in the number of inquiries per unit time. Calculating, collating the value with a predetermined reference value, and when the predetermined reference value is exceeded, an arithmetic processing means for detecting the change, and operating when the arithmetic processing means detects the change Means for updating the priority order of the prospective sales item that is the basis for generating the prospective sales limit, and sales frame generation means for generating a new expected sales limit based on the result of the updated priority order. A delivery date answering system characterized by that. The delivery date reply system according to claim 1,
The demand forecast for each lower item that constitutes the inquired item, and the total sales volume forecast for each lower item,
Based on the prediction result and parts configuration information, order information, inventory information, priority parameters, etc., an optimal solution that satisfies the goal of reducing parts inventory excess and deficiency is calculated, and each inquired item is calculated. A delivery date answering system characterized by calculating the number of units sold. The delivery date reply system according to claim 1,
The ratio of the number of cases where the sales quota change simulation is performed to the number of inquiries per unit time is calculated based on the history data, and the result is displayed on the output means as the forecast accuracy of the prospective sales quota. A delivery date answering system. The distribution items that can be sold are managed as sales slots that store at least the item identification information and the quantity information in correspondence with each point of sale, and the sales frame contains information on items that have been ordered by customers. It has a sales frame data table that is managed by dividing it into a fixed sales frame and an estimated sales frame that stores information on items that are expected to be determined based on demand forecasts based on shipment results,
If you can receive the inquiry item from the expected sales frame when you accept the delivery date inquiry, answer the delivery date,
If the inquiry item cannot be allocated from the expected sales quota, a sales quota change simulation is performed, and the delivery date, quantity, and item content desired by the customer are satisfied or partially satisfied. It is a delivery date answering method that changes the expected sales quota in the sales quota data table and returns the delivery date to the inquiry.
The process of holding the history of delivery date inquiry and the history of executing the sales quota change simulation, and based on the history data, the ratio of the number of cases where the sales quota change simulation occupies the number of inquiries per unit time. Calculating, collating the value with a predetermined reference value, and when the predetermined reference value is exceeded, detecting the change, and operating when the arithmetic processing means detects the change, A delivery date reply characterized by including a step of updating the priority of a prospective sales item that is a basis for generating a prospective sales frame, and a step of generating a new expected sales frame based on the result of the updated priority Method. The demand forecast for each lower item that constitutes the inquired item, and the total sales volume forecast for each lower item,
Based on the prediction result and parts configuration information, order information, inventory information, priority parameters, etc., an optimal solution that satisfies the goal of reducing parts inventory excess and deficiency is calculated, and each inquired item is calculated. The delivery date answering method according to claim 4, further comprising a step of calculating the number of units sold. If sales quotas for distribution items that can be sold are allocated in advance and a delivery date inquiry is accepted, the inquiry content is assigned from the sales quota and the delivery date is answered. If the inquiry content is not assigned to the sales quota, the sales A program that causes an information processing device to execute a process of responding to a delivery date after performing a frame change simulation and changing the sales date to a customer's desired delivery date, quantity, item content, etc. as much as possible.
The information processing apparatus includes:
Based on the history data and the history of receiving the delivery date inquiry and the history of executing the sales quota change simulation, the ratio of the number of cases where the sales quota change simulation was accounted for in the number of inquiries per unit time. Calculating, collating the value with a predetermined reference value, and when the predetermined reference value is exceeded, an arithmetic processing means for detecting the change, and operating when the arithmetic processing means detects the change And a means for updating the priority order of the prospective sales item, which is a basis for generating the prospective sales limit, and a sales limit generation means for generating a new expected sales limit based on the result of the updated priority order. And
The program is
When the arithmetic processing unit detects the change, a process for updating the priority order of the prospective sales item that is the basis for generating the prospective sales limit, and a new sales limit that is used to allocate the delivery date response by reading the result of the priority order A program characterized by realizing the processing to be generated. In the delivery date reply program according to claim 6,
A process for executing a demand forecast for each lower item that constitutes the inquired item, and a total sales volume forecast for each lower item;
Based on the prediction result and parts configuration information, order information, inventory information, priority parameters, etc., an optimal solution that satisfies the goal of reducing parts inventory excess and deficiency is calculated, and each inquired item is calculated. A program characterized by realizing processing for calculating the number of units sold. In the delivery date reply program according to claim 6,
The ratio of the number of cases where the sales quota change simulation is performed to the number of inquiries per unit time is calculated based on the history data, and the result is displayed on the output means as the forecast accuracy of the prospective sales quota. Delivery date answering program. A computer-readable storage medium in which the program according to any one of claims 6, 7, and 8 is stored.

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