JP2001168985A - Demand calculation method and system for electric communication installation, and recording medium with demand calculation program for electric communication installation recorded thereon - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a demand calculation method and system for electric communication installation, that can optimally and entirely predict demand coherently among installation devices with high accuracy even when the installation or the like is changed through fixed point observation and to provide a recording medium, with a demand calculation program for the electric communication installation recorded thereon. SOLUTION: An installation traffic entry section 1 enters installation traffic data, a position information entry section 3 enters position information for a service area and an observation unit area or the like, a position traffic calculation section 5 calculates and stores traffic data at a position on a map from the installation traffic, a position traffic prediction section 9 predicts future position traffic, an installation traffic calculation section 11 calculates the traffic imposed on the installation, on the basis of the future position traffic and the position information from the position information entry section 3, and a required installation calculation section 13 calculates the future required installation, on the basis of the traffic imposed on the installation.

Description

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to a method and an apparatus for calculating demand for telecommunications equipment for calculating demand for telecommunications equipment in the future, and a recording medium storing a demand calculation program for telecommunications equipment.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art Conventionally, the required amount of telecommunications equipment is as follows.
Traffic is measured in the telecommunications facilities, and demand is predicted for each telecommunications facility based on the traffic, thereby planning the required equipment quantity for each telecommunications facility.

[0003]

As described above, in the conventional method of planning the required equipment amount for each telecommunications equipment,
For example, when planning the required equipment amount for a radio base station for mobile communication and an exchange accommodating the radio base station and the like, the radio relation plans the demand for each radio-related equipment, and the exchange relation for each exchange-related equipment. Since the required demands are planned independently of each other, for example, the demands are planned, there is a problem that the matching between the wireless relationship and the exchange relationship may not be properly achieved. In other words, since the prediction is performed for each individual facility, there is a problem that the consistency between the facilities is lacking and an optimal facility configuration cannot be planned as a whole.

[0004] In addition, since the area and subscribers accommodated by the telecommunications equipment change due to the increase or decrease of the equipment or the renewal of the model, even if the traffic of a certain telecommunications equipment is measured and accumulated, what is meant by fixed-point observation is: It cannot be considered as a change in demand. For example, when a part of the accommodation area of the exchange A is shifted to the newly installed exchange B, the traffic planned by the exchange A is reduced by that much after the shift. Therefore, when the demand of the exchange A is predicted, there is a problem that it is necessary to normalize the traffic before and after the transfer in order to make the transition of the demand.

[0005] Further, since the prediction already made is an increase or decrease in demand for the existing equipment configuration, there is a problem that when the equipment configuration is changed, an effective plan cannot be made for a new configuration.

[0006] The present invention has been made in view of the above,
The aim is to provide a demand calculation method and apparatus for a telecommunications facility that is highly accurate even if the facilities and the like change by performing fixed-point observation, and that can perform an overall optimal demand forecast consistently between the facilities. And a recording medium storing a demand calculation program for telecommunications equipment.

[0007]

To achieve the above object, the present invention according to claim 1 is a method for calculating demand for telecommunications equipment in the future, comprising: Calculates and accumulates traffic depending on each location on the map from the service area of the traffic and telecommunication equipment, predicts future location-dependent traffic from the accumulated location-dependent traffic, and calculates the predicted future location-dependent traffic. The gist is to calculate the traffic of the future telecommunications equipment from the traffic and calculate the required amount of telecommunications equipment from the traffic of the future telecommunications equipment.

According to the first aspect of the present invention, traffic dependent on each position on a map is calculated and stored from the traffic of the telecommunications facilities and the service providing area of the telecommunications facilities, and from this position-dependent traffic. To predict future location-dependent traffic, calculate future telecommunications equipment traffic from this future position-dependent traffic, and calculate the required amount of telecommunications equipment from this telecommunications equipment traffic. Calculates and accumulates traffic data depending on the data, so that even if the equipment changes and accommodating areas or subscribers change, it is possible to continuously grasp the change in demand and make highly accurate predictions .

Further, the present invention described in claim 2 is based on claim 1.
In the invention described in the above, the processing of calculating the traffic in the telecommunications facility and the traffic depending on each position on the map from the service providing area of the telecommunications facility includes providing an observation unit area on the map and providing the service of the telecommunications facility The gist is to calculate the traffic between the telecommunications facilities as the traffic between the observation unit areas based on the area ratio between the area and the observation unit area.

According to the present invention, the traffic between the telecommunication facilities is calculated as the traffic between the observation unit areas based on the area ratio between the service providing area of the telecommunication facilities and the observation unit area.

Further, the present invention according to claim 3 provides the invention according to claim 1.
In the described invention, a process of calculating traffic of a future telecommunications facility from the future location-dependent traffic,
The gist is that an observation unit area is provided on a map, and the traffic between the observation unit areas is calculated as the traffic between the telecommunication facilities based on the area ratio of the service providing area of the telecommunication equipment and the observation unit area.

According to the third aspect of the present invention, the traffic between the observation unit areas is calculated as the traffic between the telecommunication facilities based on the area ratio between the service providing area of the telecommunication equipment and the observation unit area.

According to a fourth aspect of the present invention, there is provided a method for calculating demand for telecommunications equipment in the future, which calculates a demand for telecommunications equipment in the future, wherein a service providing area for each telecommunications equipment is inputted as a position on a map. Enter the observation unit area that you want to observe at a fixed point as a position on the map, calculate the composition ratio of the observation unit area that constitutes the service providing area for each telecommunication facility, and configure the communication between each telecommunication facility. Calculate the composition ratio of communication between observation unit areas, and multiply the composition ratio between observation unit areas between telecommunication facilities by the measurement traffic between telecommunication facilities to calculate the traffic between observation unit areas,
The calculation of the traffic between the observation unit areas is repeatedly performed for a predetermined period, and the calculated traffic between the observation unit areas is sequentially accumulated, and the traffic between the observation unit areas is calculated from the accumulated traffic between the observation unit areas. Predicting, calculating the composition ratio of the service providing area for each telecommunications facility constituting the observation unit area, and calculating the composition ratio between the telecommunications facilities constituting the communication between the observation unit areas by the observation unit area Calculated based on the service providing area composition ratio of each telecommunications facility, multiplying the predicted future traffic between observation unit areas by the telecommunications facility composition ratio of communication between the observation unit areas, and The gist of the present invention is to calculate the expected traffic of the telecommunication equipment and calculate the required equipment quantity from the predicted traffic between the telecommunication equipment.

According to the fourth aspect of the present invention, the service providing area and the observation unit area for each telecommunications facility are input as positions on a map, and the observation area of the service providing area for each telecommunications facility is entered. Calculate the composition ratio and the composition ratio between the observation unit areas between the telecommunications facilities, multiply the composition ratio between the observation unit areas between the telecommunication facilities by the measurement traffic between the telecommunication facilities, and calculate the traffic between the observation unit areas. Calculate and accumulate sequentially, predict traffic between future observation unit areas from this traffic between observation unit areas, calculate the service provision area composition ratio for each telecommunication equipment in the observation unit area,
Based on this composition ratio, the composition ratio between the telecommunication facilities between the observation unit areas is calculated, and the predicted traffic between the observation unit areas is multiplied by the composition ratio between the telecommunication facilities between the observation unit areas. To calculate the traffic and calculate the required equipment amount from the predicted traffic between the telecommunications equipment, instead of calculating the equipment, calculate and accumulate the location-dependent traffic data. Even if the subscriber changes, the change in demand can be continuously grasped, and highly accurate prediction can be performed.

According to a fifth aspect of the present invention, there is provided an apparatus for calculating demand for telecommunication equipment for calculating demand for telecommunication equipment in the future. Position-dependent traffic calculation and accumulation means for calculating and accumulating traffic dependent on each of the above positions; prediction means for predicting future position-dependent traffic from the accumulated position-dependent traffic; and predicted future position-dependent traffic. And telecommunications equipment traffic calculation means for calculating the traffic of the future telecommunications equipment, and telecommunications equipment quantity calculation means for calculating the required telecommunications equipment quantity from the traffic of this future telecommunications equipment. I do.

According to the present invention, the traffic depending on each position on the map is calculated and stored from the traffic of the telecommunications facilities and the service providing area of the telecommunications facilities. To predict future location-dependent traffic, calculate future telecommunications equipment traffic from this future position-dependent traffic, and calculate the required amount of telecommunications equipment from this telecommunications equipment traffic. By calculating and accumulating traffic data depending on the data, even if the equipment changes and the accommodation area or the subscriber changes, the change in demand can be continuously grasped, and highly accurate prediction can be performed.

Further, the present invention described in claim 6 provides the present invention according to claim 5.
In the invention described above, the position-dependent traffic calculation and accumulation means includes an observation unit area setting means for setting an observation unit area on a map, and the telecommunication equipment based on an area ratio between a service providing area of the telecommunication equipment and an observation unit area. It is essential to have a means for calculating traffic between observation unit areas that calculates traffic as traffic between observation unit areas.

According to the present invention, the traffic between the telecommunication facilities is calculated as the traffic between the observation unit areas based on the area ratio between the service providing area of the telecommunication facilities and the observation unit area.

According to a seventh aspect of the present invention, in the fifth aspect of the invention, the telecommunications equipment traffic calculating means includes an observation unit area setting means for setting an observation unit area on a map, and a service of the telecommunications equipment. The gist of the present invention is to have a means for calculating traffic between telecommunications facilities, which calculates traffic between observational unit areas as traffic between telecommunications facilities based on the area ratio between the providing area and the observational unit area.

According to the present invention, the traffic between the observation unit areas is calculated as the traffic between the telecommunication facilities based on the area ratio between the service providing area of the telecommunication equipment and the observation unit area.

The present invention according to claim 8 is an apparatus for calculating demand for telecommunications equipment for calculating demand for telecommunications equipment in the future, comprising: a service providing area for each telecommunications equipment; An input means for inputting a region as a position on a map and inputting measurement traffic between the telecommunications facilities, and a telecommunication for calculating a composition ratio of an observation unit area constituting a service providing area for each telecommunications facility. Observation unit area composition ratio calculation means for the service providing area for each equipment, and observation unit area composition between telecommunication equipment that calculates the communication composition ratio between the observation unit areas constituting the communication between the telecommunication equipment The ratio calculation means and the inter-observation unit area to calculate the traffic between the observing unit areas by multiplying the composition ratio between the observation unit areas between the telecommunication facilities by the measurement traffic between the telecommunication facilities. And Hick calculation means, performed repeatedly a predetermined period to calculate the traffic between the observation units area,
A storage means for sequentially storing the calculated traffic between the observation unit areas; a prediction means for predicting traffic between the future observation unit areas from the stored traffic between the observation unit areas; and Means for calculating the composition ratio of the service providing area for each telecommunications facility, which is the service providing area composition ratio calculating means for each telecommunications facility in the observation unit area, and between the telecommunications facilities constituting the communication between the observation unit areas. A telecommunications equipment inter-equipment composition ratio calculating means for calculating the composition ratio based on a service providing area composition ratio for each telecommunication equipment in the observation unit area; and Multiplying the configuration ratio between telecommunications facilities of communication between the observation unit areas, to calculate predicted traffic between telecommunications facilities, a means for predicting traffic between telecommunications facilities, And summarized in that from the predicted traffic between telecommunication equipment and a facility amount calculating means for calculating a desired amount of equipment.

According to the present invention, a service providing area and an observation unit area for each telecommunications facility are input as positions on a map, and an observation unit area of the service providing area for each telecommunications facility is entered. Calculate the composition ratio and the composition ratio between the observation unit areas between the telecommunications facilities, multiply the composition ratio between the observation unit areas between the telecommunication facilities by the measurement traffic between the telecommunication facilities, and calculate the traffic between the observation unit areas. Calculate and accumulate sequentially, predict traffic between future observation unit areas from this traffic between observation unit areas, calculate the service provision area composition ratio for each telecommunication equipment in the observation unit area,
Based on this composition ratio, the composition ratio between the telecommunication facilities between the observation unit areas is calculated, and the predicted traffic between the observation unit areas is multiplied by the composition ratio between the telecommunication facilities between the observation unit areas. To calculate the traffic and calculate the required equipment amount from the predicted traffic between the telecommunications equipment, instead of calculating the equipment, calculate and accumulate the location-dependent traffic data. Even if the subscriber changes, the change in demand can be continuously grasped, and highly accurate prediction can be performed.

Further, the present invention described in claim 9 provides the present invention according to claim 8.
In the invention described in the above, a recording medium recording a demand calculation program of the telecommunication equipment for calculating the demand of the telecommunication equipment in the future, wherein the traffic in the telecommunication equipment and each location on the map from the service providing area of the telecommunication equipment Calculates and accumulates traffic dependent on the future, predicts future position-dependent traffic from the accumulated position-dependent traffic, and calculates future telecommunications equipment traffic from the predicted future position-dependent traffic. The gist of the present invention is to record a demand calculation program for a telecommunications facility for calculating a required amount of telecommunications facility from the traffic of the telecommunications facility on a recording medium.

According to the ninth aspect of the present invention, traffic dependent on each position on a map is calculated and stored from the traffic of the telecommunications facilities and the service providing area of the telecommunications facilities, and from this position-dependent traffic. A telecommunications equipment demand calculation program for predicting future position-dependent traffic, calculating future telecommunications equipment traffic from this future position-dependent traffic, and calculating the required amount of telecommunications equipment from the telecommunications equipment traffic Is recorded on a recording medium, so that the distribution can be improved by using the recording medium.

According to a tenth aspect of the present invention, in the invention according to the ninth aspect, the process of calculating the traffic in the telecommunications facility and the traffic depending on each position on the map from the service providing area of the telecommunications facility includes: A demand calculation program for telecommunications equipment that establishes an observation unit area on a map and calculates the traffic between telecommunications equipment as the traffic between observation unit areas based on the area ratio between the telecommunications equipment service providing area and the observation unit area It shall be recorded in the summary.

According to the present invention, the traffic between the telecommunication facilities is calculated as the traffic between the observation unit areas based on the area ratio between the service providing area of the telecommunication facilities and the observation unit area. Since the demand calculation program is recorded on the recording medium, it is possible to enhance the circulation using the recording medium.

According to a twelfth aspect of the present invention, in the ninth aspect of the present invention, the processing for calculating the traffic of the future telecommunications equipment from the future position-dependent traffic comprises setting an observation unit area on a map. The gist of the present invention is to record on a recording medium a demand calculation program for telecommunication equipment, which calculates traffic between observation unit areas as traffic between telecommunication equipment based on an area ratio between a service providing area of the telecommunication equipment and an observation unit area. .

According to the eleventh aspect of the present invention, the traffic between the observation unit areas is calculated as the traffic between the telecommunication facilities based on the area ratio between the service providing area of the telecommunication facilities and the observation unit area. Since the demand calculation program is recorded on the recording medium, it is possible to enhance the circulation using the recording medium.

The present invention according to claim 12 is a recording medium storing a telecommunications equipment demand calculation program for calculating future demands for telecommunications equipment, wherein a service providing area for each telecommunications equipment is determined. Enter the location on the map, enter the observation unit area you want to observe at a fixed point as the location on the map, calculate the composition ratio of the observation unit area that constitutes the service providing area for each telecommunications facility, Calculate the composition ratio of the communication between the observation unit areas constituting the communication between the facilities, multiply the composition ratio between the observation unit areas between the telecommunication facilities by the measurement traffic between the telecommunication facilities, and calculate the composition ratio of the observation unit area. The traffic between the observation unit areas is calculated repeatedly for a predetermined period of time, and the calculated traffic between the observation unit areas is sequentially accumulated. The traffic between the observation unit areas is predicted from the traffic between the observation area areas, the composition ratio of the service providing area for each telecommunications equipment constituting the observation unit area is calculated, and the communication between the observation unit areas is configured. The communication ratio between the observation unit areas is calculated based on the service provision area composition ratio for each of the telecommunication facilities in the observation unit area, and the predicted future traffic between the observation unit areas is calculated. The gist is to calculate the predicted traffic between the telecommunication facilities by multiplying the configuration ratio between the telecommunication facilities, and to calculate the required facility quantity from the predicted traffic between the telecommunication facilities.

In the twelfth aspect of the present invention, the service providing area and the observation unit area for each telecommunications facility are input as positions on a map, and the observation unit area of the service providing area for each telecommunications facility is entered. Calculate the composition ratio and the composition ratio between the observation unit areas between the telecommunications facilities, multiply the composition ratio between the observation unit areas between the telecommunication facilities by the measurement traffic between the telecommunication facilities, and calculate the traffic between the observation unit areas. Calculate and accumulate sequentially, predict future traffic between the observation unit areas from the traffic between the observation unit areas, calculate the service providing area composition ratio for each telecommunication equipment in the observation unit area, and based on this composition ratio Calculate the composition ratio between telecommunications facilities between observation unit areas, multiply the predicted traffic between observation unit areas by the composition ratio between telecommunications facilities between observation unit areas,
The predicted traffic between the telecommunications facilities is calculated, and the demand calculation program for the telecommunications facilities for calculating the required equipment quantity from the predicted traffic between the telecommunications facilities is recorded on a recording medium. , And its distribution can be improved.

[0031]

Embodiments of the present invention will be described below with reference to the drawings. FIG. 1 and FIG. 2 are a block diagram showing a configuration of a demand calculation device for executing a demand calculation method for a telecommunications facility according to an embodiment of the present invention, and a flowchart showing a schematic operation of the demand calculation device. The outline of the present embodiment will be described with reference to both drawings.

In the demand calculating device for telecommunication equipment of the present embodiment, first, traffic data measured by each telecommunication equipment such as an exchange and a base station accommodated in the exchange is input from the equipment traffic input unit 1. (Step S1 in FIG. 2), from the position information input unit 3, the position of a service providing area, which is a position on a map provided by each telecommunication facility, or an observation unit area, which is a position on a map where fixed point observation is desired. Information is input (step S3).

The traffic at each telecommunications facility inputted from the facility traffic input section 1 and the position information on the map inputted from the position information input section 3 are calculated by a position traffic calculating section 5.
Is input to The position traffic calculation unit 5 calculates traffic data at a position on a map from the traffic of each telecommunications facility (step S5). The traffic data at the position on the map is sequentially and sequentially accumulated in the database storage unit 7 (step S7).

The traffic data at the position on the map stored in the database storage unit 7 is read out to the position traffic prediction unit 9, and the position traffic prediction unit 9 uses the traffic data at this position on the map as the Is predicted (step S9). The traffic data at the position on the map predicted by the position traffic prediction unit 9 is input to the equipment traffic calculation unit 11.

The equipment traffic calculation unit 11 is a telecommunication system that accommodates the point in the future predicted on the basis of the predicted traffic data at the position on the map from the position traffic prediction unit 9 and the position information from the position information input unit 3. The traffic concerning the equipment is calculated (step S11). Then, the traffic related to the telecommunications equipment calculated in this way is input to the required equipment calculating unit 13, and the required equipment calculating unit 13 calculates the required equipment in the future, that is, the number of exchanges, Is calculated (step S13).

Next, the operation of the present embodiment shown schematically in FIGS. 1 and 2 will be described in detail with reference to the flowchart shown in FIG.

In FIG. 3, first, a service providing area for each telecommunications facility to which each telecommunications facility provides a service is input as a position on a map (step S21).
Further, an observation unit area for which fixed point observation is desired is input as a position on the map (step S23). In this case, the position on the map is input, for example, by specifying the range of the area by latitude and longitude.

Next, what kind of observation unit area the service providing area for each telecommunication facility is made of is calculated as the composition ratio of the observation unit area in the service providing area for each telecommunication facility (step S25). . In addition,
The composition ratio in this case is calculated based on the area ratio.

Specifically, the observation unit area is set to, for example, a prefecture unit, the observation unit area 1 is Tokyo, the observation unit area 2 is Chiba prefecture, and the observation unit area 3 is Kanagawa prefecture. When the service providing area of the telecommunications facility A extends over Tokyo and Chiba, 90% of the service providing areas of the telecommunications facility A are the observation unit areas 1 and 10% Is composed of the observation unit area 2.

Although there is no limitation on the relationship between the observation unit area and the size of the service providing area, it is assumed that the traffic is uniformly distributed in the service providing area. It doesn't make much sense to make it smaller than the area. The size of the observation unit area is set by the user in accordance with the characteristics of the telecommunications facilities, the policies of the business operator, the characteristics of the area, and the like.

Next, a service providing area for each telecommunications facility calculated in step S25 for the communication between the telecommunications facilities to determine what kind of communication between observation unit areas is established between the telecommunications facilities. Is calculated by multiplying by the composition ratio of the observation unit area in (step S27). For example, assuming that the service providing area of the telecommunications facility B is constituted by the 100% observation unit area 3, 90% of the communication between the telecommunications facilities A and B from the above-described example is the observation unit area 1-3.
It is calculated that 10% is constituted by communication between the observation unit areas 2-3.

Next, in step S29, the traffic measured between the telecommunication facilities is input. Then, the traffic between the observation unit areas is calculated by multiplying the measurement traffic between the telecommunication facilities by the composition ratio between the observation unit areas in the communication between the respective telecommunication facilities calculated in step S27 (step S31). For example, telecommunications equipment A-
The traffic measured between B is 50 Erlangs, and the composition ratio between the observation unit areas of the communication between the telecommunications facilities A and B is 90% as described above.
If 0% is constituted by communication between the observation unit areas 2-3, 45 erlangs are distributed to the observation unit area 1-3 and 5 erlangs are distributed to the observation unit area 2-3. This process is repeated for the traffic between all telecommunications facilities, and the traffic between the same observation unit areas is added up among the traffic between the observation unit areas calculated individually, and the traffic between all the observation unit areas is calculated. Is calculated.

Then, the traffic between the observation unit areas calculated in this way is stored in the database storage unit 7, and the calculation of the traffic between the observation unit areas, ie, the calculation processing up to step S31 is performed every predetermined period. The calculation is repeatedly performed to accumulate the calculated traffic between the observation unit areas, thereby observing the secular change (step S33).

Next, the traffic between each observation unit area in the future is predicted by the regression analysis method or the conventional method from the traffic between each observation unit area accumulated as described above (step S35).

Then, the service providing area of each telecommunications facility in the future is input (step S37). In this case, if there is no change in the service providing area of each telecommunications facility in the future, there is no need to input.

In the next step S39, by changing the viewpoint from step S25 described above, on the contrary, it is determined what kind of service providing area for each telecommunications facility is included in each observation unit area. It is calculated by the area ratio of the service providing area as the service providing area composition ratio. In the next step S41, the viewpoint is changed from the viewpoint of the step S27 to the step S39. On the contrary, the communication between the observation unit areas is determined by the communication between the observation unit areas in the step S39. Is multiplied by the telecommunications equipment service providing area composition ratio of the observation unit area calculated in the above, and is calculated as the telecommunications equipment composition ratio of communication between the observation unit areas.

When the composition ratio between the telecommunication facilities for the communication between the observation unit areas is calculated in this manner, the composition ratio between the telecommunication facilities for the communication between the observation unit areas is calculated for each observation unit calculated in step S35. The predicted traffic between the respective telecommunication facilities is calculated by multiplying the predicted traffic between the regions (step S43). For example, the predicted traffic between the observation unit areas 1-3 is 100 erlangs, 20% of which is traffic between the telecommunications facilities CD and the observation unit area 2
-3 is 50 Erlangs and 10% of the traffic is between the telecommunications facilities CD, the predicted traffic between the telecommunications facilities CD is calculated as 25 Erlangs. Is done.

When the predicted traffic between the telecommunication facilities is calculated in this way, the required equipment quantity is calculated from the predicted traffic by using the Erlang B formula or the like (step S45). For example, if the predicted traffic between the telecommunications facilities C and D is 25 Erlangs, the call loss rate is 0.
The number of lines between the telecommunications facilities C and D required to satisfy 01 or less is calculated as 36 lines using Erlang B formula.

In the above-described method for calculating the demand for telecommunications equipment, traffic is assumed to be uniformly distributed within the service providing area of the telecommunications equipment (the minimum unit area where traffic can be measured), and the area ratio , Traffic is distributed to positions, and position traffic is calculated. With this, fixed-point observation can be performed, and prediction can be made while observing a change in demand.

Further, by re-entering the equipment configuration before distributing the predicted position traffic to the telecommunication equipment, it is possible to calculate demand for a new equipment configuration in the area where the current service is provided.

Further, since the traffic between the locations is integrated, the traffic between the locations is predicted, and the traffic is reflected on the traffic between the telecommunication facilities, so that the traffic between the facilities can be predicted consistently. Thus, it is possible to plan an optimum equipment configuration as a whole.

By recording the processing of the above-described embodiment as a program on a recording medium, it is possible to use the recording medium to enhance its circulation.

[0053]

As described above, according to the present invention,
Calculate and accumulate traffic depending on each location on the map from the traffic of the telecommunication equipment and the service providing area of the telecommunication equipment, predict future position-dependent traffic from this position-dependent traffic, and calculate this future position-dependent traffic. Since the traffic of the future telecommunications equipment is calculated from and the required amount of telecommunications equipment is calculated from the traffic of the telecommunications equipment, not the equipment but the traffic data depending on the position is calculated and stored, Even if the equipment changes and the accommodation area or the subscriber changes, the change in demand can be continuously grasped, and highly accurate prediction can be performed. In particular, it enables demand prediction based on traffic data in mobile communication in which a range covered by a base station is optimized and changed. In addition, since demand forecasting is performed independently of the configuration of existing facilities, facilities having different configurations can be planned. Since unitary demand forecasting is performed and reflected on the equipment, it is possible to plan an optimum equipment configuration that is consistent between the equipment and overall.

[Brief description of the drawings]

FIG. 1 is a block diagram illustrating a configuration of a demand calculation device that performs a demand calculation method for a telecommunications facility according to an embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing a schematic operation of the demand calculation device shown in FIG.

FIG. 3 is a flowchart showing a detailed process of the demand calculation device shown in FIG. 1;

[Explanation of symbols]

 Reference Signs List 1 equipment traffic input unit 3 position information input unit 5 position traffic calculation unit 7 database storage unit 9 position traffic prediction unit 11 equipment traffic calculation unit 13 required equipment calculation unit

 ────────────────────────────────────────────────── ─── Continuing on the front page (72) Inventor Yuichi Negishi 1-9-1 Konan, Minato-ku, Tokyo NTT Communicationware Co., Ltd. F-term (reference) 5K019 AA08 BB21 DA03 DB08 DC01 5K030 GA11 HC09 JA10 KA07 LE16 MB09 MC07 MD07 5K035 AA05 DD01 EE25 JJ04 KK01 5K051 AA05 AA10 FF03 9A001 CC02 CC05 JJ01 JJ73 KK37 KK56

Claims (12)

[Claims] 1. A method for calculating demand for telecommunications equipment in the future, comprising calculating traffic in the telecommunications equipment and traffic dependent on each position on a map from a service providing area of the telecommunications equipment. Calculate and accumulate, predict future position-dependent traffic from the accumulated position-dependent traffic, calculate future telecommunications equipment traffic from the predicted future position-dependent traffic, and calculate the future telecommunications equipment A demand calculation method for telecommunications equipment, comprising calculating a required amount of telecommunications equipment from traffic. 2. The process of calculating traffic depending on each position on a map from the traffic in the telecommunications facility and the service providing area of the telecommunications facility, providing an observation unit area on the map and providing the service of the telecommunications facility 2. The method for calculating demand for telecommunications equipment according to claim 1, wherein the traffic between the telecommunications equipment is calculated as the traffic between the observational unit areas based on the area ratio between the area and the observation unit area. 3. The process of calculating traffic of a future telecommunications facility from the future location-dependent traffic comprises setting an observation unit area on a map and observing the area ratio between the service providing area of the telecommunications facility and the observation unit area. 2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the traffic between the unit areas is calculated as the traffic between the telecommunications facilities. 4. A demand calculation method for telecommunications equipment for calculating demand for telecommunications equipment in the future, wherein a service providing area for each telecommunications equipment is input as a position on a map, and an observation unit area for which fixed-point observation is desired. As the location on the map, calculate the composition ratio of the observation unit areas that make up the service providing area for each telecommunications equipment, and calculate the ratio between the observation unit areas that make up the communication between each telecommunications equipment. Calculate the composition ratio of the communication, multiply the composition ratio between the observation unit areas between the telecommunication facilities by the measurement traffic between the telecommunication facilities, calculate the traffic between the observation unit areas, and calculate the traffic between the observation unit areas. Is repeatedly calculated for a predetermined period of time, and the traffic between the calculated observation unit areas is sequentially accumulated, and the traffic between the accumulated observation unit areas is calculated based on the traffic between the observation unit areas in the future. Hic is predicted, and the composition ratio of the service providing area for each telecommunication equipment constituting the observation unit area is calculated, and the composition ratio between the telecommunication equipment constituting the communication between the observation unit areas is observed. Calculating based on the service providing area composition ratio for each telecommunications facility in the unit area, multiplying the predicted future traffic between the observation unit areas by the composition ratio between the telecommunication facilities for communication between the observation unit areas, A demand calculation method for a telecommunications facility, comprising calculating predicted traffic between facilities and calculating a required facility quantity from the predicted traffic between telecommunications facilities. 5. A demand calculation device for a telecommunications facility for calculating demand for a telecommunications facility in the future, wherein the traffic in the telecommunications facility and the traffic depending on each position on a map from a service providing area of the telecommunications facility are determined. Calculating and accumulating position-dependent traffic calculating and accumulating means, predicting means for predicting future position-dependent traffic from the accumulated position-dependent traffic, and predicting future telecommunication equipment traffic from the predicted future position-dependent traffic. An apparatus for calculating demand for telecommunications equipment, comprising: telecommunications equipment traffic calculating means for calculating; and telecommunications equipment quantity calculating means for calculating a required telecommunications equipment quantity from traffic of this future telecommunications equipment. 6. The location-dependent traffic calculation and accumulation means includes: an observation unit area setting means for setting an observation unit area on a map; and a telecommunications equipment based on an area ratio between a service providing area of the telecommunication equipment and an observation unit area. 6. An inter-observation unit area traffic calculating means for calculating traffic as inter-observation unit area traffic.
An apparatus for calculating demand for telecommunications equipment according to claim 1. 7. The telecommunications equipment traffic calculating means includes an observation unit area setting means for setting an observation unit area on a map, and an observation unit area setting means based on an area ratio of a telecommunications equipment service providing area and an observation unit area. 6. The demand calculation device for telecommunications equipment according to claim 5, further comprising means for calculating traffic between telecommunications facilities as traffic between telecommunications facilities. 8. A demand calculation device for a telecommunications facility for calculating demand for telecommunications facilities in the future, wherein a service providing area and an observation unit area to be fixed-point observed for each telecommunications facility are inputted as positions on a map. An input means for inputting measurement traffic between the telecommunications facilities, and an observation unit of a service providing area for each telecommunications facility for calculating a composition ratio of an observation unit area constituting a service providing area for each telecommunications facility. An area composition ratio calculating means, an observation unit inter-area composition ratio calculating means for the telecommunication equipment for calculating a communication composition between the observation unit areas constituting the communication between the telecommunication equipment, and the telecommunication equipment An inter-observation unit inter-region traffic calculation means for multiplying the inter-observation unit inter-region composition ratio by a measurement traffic between telecommunications facilities to calculate traffic between the observing unit regions. A storage means for repeatedly calculating traffic between unit areas for a predetermined period of time and sequentially storing the calculated traffic between the observation unit areas; and a traffic between the accumulated observation unit areas and traffic between the future observation unit areas. Predicting means for predicting the service providing area for each telecommunication equipment in the observation unit area for calculating the composition ratio of the service providing area for each telecommunication equipment constituting the observation unit area; and A telecommunications equipment configuration ratio between observation unit areas, which calculates a composition ratio between telecommunications facilities configuring communication between the areas based on a service providing area composition ratio for each telecommunications facility in the observation unit area; Multiplying the predicted future traffic between the observation unit areas by the composition ratio between the telecommunication facilities of the communication between the observation unit areas, And between the electrical communications equipment predicting traffic calculating means for calculating a Rahikku demand calculation apparatus telecommunications equipment characterized by having a facility amount calculating means for calculating a desired amount of equipment from the prediction traffic between the telecommunications equipment. 9. A recording medium for recording a demand calculation program for telecommunications equipment for calculating demand for telecommunications equipment in the future, comprising: traffic in the telecommunications equipment; Calculates and accumulates traffic dependent on the future, predicts future position-dependent traffic from the accumulated position-dependent traffic, and calculates future telecommunications equipment traffic from the predicted future position-dependent traffic. A storage medium storing a demand calculation program for telecommunications equipment, wherein a required telecommunications equipment quantity is calculated from the traffic of the telecommunications equipment. 10. The process of calculating traffic depending on each position on a map from the traffic in the telecommunications facility and the service providing area of the telecommunications facility, providing an observation unit area on the map and providing the service of the telecommunications facility 10. The recording medium according to claim 9, wherein the traffic between the telecommunication facilities is calculated as the traffic between the observation unit areas based on the area ratio between the area and the observation unit area. 11. A process of calculating traffic of a future telecommunications facility from the future location-dependent traffic is performed by setting an observation unit area on a map and observing the area ratio between the service providing area of the telecommunications facility and the observation unit area. The recording medium according to claim 9, wherein the traffic between the unit areas is calculated as the traffic between the telecommunication facilities. 12. A recording medium for recording a demand calculation program for telecommunications equipment for calculating demand for telecommunications equipment in the future, wherein a service providing area for each telecommunications equipment is inputted as a position on a map, Enter the observation unit area that you want to observe as a location on the map, calculate the composition ratio of the observation unit area that constitutes the service providing area for each telecommunications facility, and configure the communication between each telecommunications facility. Calculate the composition ratio of the communication between the observation unit areas, multiply the composition ratio between the observation unit areas between the telecommunication facilities by the measurement traffic between the telecommunication facilities, calculate the traffic between the observation unit areas, The calculation of traffic between observation unit areas is repeated for a predetermined period, and the calculated traffic between observation unit areas is sequentially accumulated. The traffic between the observation unit areas is predicted, and the composition ratio of the service providing area for each telecommunications equipment constituting the observation unit area is calculated, and the telecommunication equipment constituting the communication between the observation unit areas is calculated. The composition ratio between the telecommunications facilities of the communication between the observation unit areas is calculated based on the service provision area composition ratio for each telecommunication facility in the observation unit area, and the traffic between the predicted future observation unit areas is calculated. A recording medium for recording a demand calculation program for telecommunications equipment, wherein a predicted traffic between telecommunications equipment is calculated by multiplying the ratio, and a required equipment quantity is calculated from the predicted traffic between the telecommunications equipment.