EP2047448A1 - Verfahren und vorrichtung zur generierung von frühwarnungen vor verkehrszusammenbrüchen an engstellen - Google Patents
Verfahren und vorrichtung zur generierung von frühwarnungen vor verkehrszusammenbrüchen an engstellenInfo
- Publication number
- EP2047448A1 EP2047448A1 EP07785629A EP07785629A EP2047448A1 EP 2047448 A1 EP2047448 A1 EP 2047448A1 EP 07785629 A EP07785629 A EP 07785629A EP 07785629 A EP07785629 A EP 07785629A EP 2047448 A1 EP2047448 A1 EP 2047448A1
- Authority
- EP
- European Patent Office
- Prior art keywords
- traffic
- early
- time range
- early warnings
- quality
- Prior art date
- Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
- Granted
Links
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 36
- 230000011664 signaling Effects 0.000 title abstract 2
- 238000013213 extrapolation Methods 0.000 claims description 9
- 238000005259 measurement Methods 0.000 claims description 8
- 230000015556 catabolic process Effects 0.000 claims description 7
- 230000000694 effects Effects 0.000 claims description 5
- 230000015572 biosynthetic process Effects 0.000 claims description 3
- 230000002596 correlated effect Effects 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000010586 diagram Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000013442 quality metrics Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 230000003466 anti-cipated effect Effects 0.000 claims 3
- 238000012935 Averaging Methods 0.000 claims 1
- 238000004364 calculation method Methods 0.000 claims 1
- 230000008901 benefit Effects 0.000 description 4
- 238000013459 approach Methods 0.000 description 3
- 238000011835 investigation Methods 0.000 description 2
- 238000004393 prognosis Methods 0.000 description 2
- 238000010276 construction Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000000875 corresponding effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000001419 dependent effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000005516 engineering process Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000006698 induction Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000007689 inspection Methods 0.000 description 1
- 239000011159 matrix material Substances 0.000 description 1
- 238000011160 research Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000004088 simulation Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000007619 statistical method Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000004083 survival effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000007704 transition Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000001960 triggered effect Effects 0.000 description 1
Classifications
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G08—SIGNALLING
- G08G—TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS
- G08G1/00—Traffic control systems for road vehicles
- G08G1/01—Detecting movement of traffic to be counted or controlled
- G08G1/0104—Measuring and analyzing of parameters relative to traffic conditions
Definitions
- the information is not available while driving and therefore can not be used for navigation purposes.
- the prognosis is calculated with a deterministic simulation method and comes to a definite result for the traffic situation in 30 or 60 minutes, which due to the stochastic nature of traffic collapses often incorrect.
- the object is to provide a method and a device that find a form of traffic forecast, which the above-mentioned.
- the invention is intended to be spread over existing coded traffic message channels to be available while in motion.
- Fig. 1 illustrates an example of a bottleneck on a network edge
- Fig. 2 shows the probability of collapse as a function of traffic intensity
- FIG. 3 shows the dependence of the method parameter warning threshold on the method parameter prediction period.
- FIG. 4 The working characteristic in which the code FPR (cost) is shown on the x-axis and the code TPR (benefit) on the y-axis.
- Fig. 1 shows an example of a bottleneck.
- the number of tracks is reduced from 3 to 2.
- bottlenecks may be tributaries at the junctions themselves or at highway junctions, construction sites, lane constrictions, etc. Since the knowledge available in a central office about the presence and type of bottlenecks in a national road network is unlikely to be complete and current at any time, a pragmatic approach is to consider each network edge as a potential bottleneck.
- Equation 1 the probability of traffic collapses Pbd are brought in dependence on the measured traffic volume flowing to the bottleneck. It is understood that this function can also have a different form and serves only as an example. The basis for this is recorded measurements of the volume of traffic by detectors, eg induction loops or overhead detectors, and observations of traffic congestion that actually occurred.
- A designates the bottleneck that results from omission of a track
- B another bottleneck, which is given by the inflow at the downstream connection point.
- Fig. 1 shows the corresponding bottlenecks.
- Equation a and b are fit parameters of the Weibull distribution.
- q Q_arr (A)
- q Q_arr (B)
- the respective measuring cross sections measure the traffic flow that flows through the bottlenecks, and which leads with increasing probability to traffic collapse.
- fit parameters (a and b in the example above) are determined for all bottlenecks in the considered road network.
- FIG. 2 shows an example of the result.
- the function Q_arr is given by the measured values for the traffic flow of the respective measuring cross section.
- the collapse probability at the bottleneck A as a function of the traffic flow q can be determined, for example, with the Kaplan-Meier estimator for the survival probability ..
- the past values determined in this way can be adapted to the Weibull distribution, eg by a least-square-fit method ,
- extrapolated values determine the absolute level and the hydrograph the curve shape.
- the breakdown probability can be read from the fit function (FIG. 2) available for each relevant bottleneck. If the collapse probability accumulated over the period of time limited by the forecast horizon exceeds a threshold (e.g., 80%, the "warning threshold"), issuing an early warning of a traffic jam is appropriate.
- a threshold e.g., 80%, the "warning threshold"
- quality metrics are defined below, where the width of an event set X with
- a compact description of the information quality is the mean feature or share value of all quality indicators in the Population. These values can be estimated from a sample of data using statistical methods.
- TPR
- VWZ Advance Warning Time
- the adjustable parameters of the early warning system include the forecast period ⁇ AT ⁇ and the warning threshold ⁇ P ⁇ ) i. the threshold for the probability of a collapse, which controls the registration and deregistration of the early warning.
- the warning threshold P hd has a dependency on
- the TPR varies between the value one (zero) for the smallest (largest) value of the warning threshold, since a small (large) warning threshold means that virtually every (no) fault is warned.
- the key figure FPR assumes for the smallest value of the warning threshold a value which is specific to a considered bottleneck and can sometimes be significantly less than one; when the warning threshold is opened, the code FPR shows a falling tendency.
- the value assumed by the FPR for the lowest value of the warning threshold is, by definition, the probability that there will be no traffic breakdown at the bottleneck in the critical area of transport demand.
- FIG. 4 shows the operating characteristic in which the code FPR (cost) is shown on the x-axis and the code TPR (benefit) is shown on the y-axis.
- This working characteristic is called Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC).
- ROC Receiver Operating Characteristics
- An operating point that corresponds to a conservative setting of the early warning system with a high warning threshold means a small proportion of false-positive classified traffic situations (congestion reported, but no congestion occurs) but at the same time also a low TPR, i. a small proportion of traffic breakdowns, which are warned against.
- the proposed method solves the problem formulated at the outset.
- Congestion formation can be predicted to the minute.
Abstract
Description
Claims
Applications Claiming Priority (2)
Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
---|---|---|---|
DE200610033532 DE102006033532A1 (de) | 2006-07-20 | 2006-07-20 | Verfahren und Vorrichtung zur Generierung von Frühwarnungen vor Verkehrszusammenbrüchen an Engstellen |
PCT/DE2007/001255 WO2008009271A1 (de) | 2006-07-20 | 2007-07-13 | Verfahren und vorrichtung zur generierung von frühwarnungen vor verkehrszusammenbrüchen an engstellen |
Publications (2)
Publication Number | Publication Date |
---|---|
EP2047448A1 true EP2047448A1 (de) | 2009-04-15 |
EP2047448B1 EP2047448B1 (de) | 2014-09-10 |
Family
ID=38616029
Family Applications (1)
Application Number | Title | Priority Date | Filing Date |
---|---|---|---|
EP07785629.2A Active EP2047448B1 (de) | 2006-07-20 | 2007-07-13 | Verfahren und vorrichtung zur generierung von frühwarnungen vor verkehrszusammenbrüchen an engstellen |
Country Status (3)
Country | Link |
---|---|
EP (1) | EP2047448B1 (de) |
DE (1) | DE102006033532A1 (de) |
WO (1) | WO2008009271A1 (de) |
Families Citing this family (2)
Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
---|---|---|---|---|
WO2009116105A2 (en) * | 2008-03-21 | 2009-09-24 | Gianfranco Antonini | A traffic assignment method for multimodal transportation networks |
CN115471215B (zh) * | 2022-10-31 | 2023-03-28 | 江西省地质局地理信息工程大队 | 一种业务流程处理方法及装置 |
Family Cites Families (6)
Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
---|---|---|---|---|
SE503515C2 (sv) * | 1995-05-19 | 1996-07-01 | Dimbis Ab | Detektering och prediktion av trafikstörningar |
SE9800280L (sv) * | 1998-01-30 | 1999-05-25 | Dinbis Ab | Metod och anordning för nätverksstyrning av trafik |
SE512895C2 (sv) * | 1998-08-07 | 2000-05-29 | Dinbis Ab | Metod och anordning för ruttstyrning av trafik |
DE19954971B4 (de) * | 1999-11-16 | 2004-08-12 | Daimlerchrysler Ag | System zur Beeinflussung des Verkehrsflusses von Fahrzeugen |
JP3849435B2 (ja) * | 2001-02-23 | 2006-11-22 | 株式会社日立製作所 | プローブ情報を利用した交通状況推定方法及び交通状況推定・提供システム |
US7698055B2 (en) * | 2004-11-16 | 2010-04-13 | Microsoft Corporation | Traffic forecasting employing modeling and analysis of probabilistic interdependencies and contextual data |
-
2006
- 2006-07-20 DE DE200610033532 patent/DE102006033532A1/de not_active Withdrawn
-
2007
- 2007-07-13 WO PCT/DE2007/001255 patent/WO2008009271A1/de active Application Filing
- 2007-07-13 EP EP07785629.2A patent/EP2047448B1/de active Active
Non-Patent Citations (1)
Title |
---|
See references of WO2008009271A1 * |
Also Published As
Publication number | Publication date |
---|---|
DE102006033532A1 (de) | 2008-01-24 |
WO2008009271A1 (de) | 2008-01-24 |
EP2047448B1 (de) | 2014-09-10 |
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