CN117318022A - Reliability quantitative evaluation method and device for nuclear power loss external power supply and storage medium - Google Patents
Reliability quantitative evaluation method and device for nuclear power loss external power supply and storage medium Download PDFInfo
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
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Abstract
The invention discloses a reliability quantitative evaluation method, a device and a storage medium for nuclear power loss external power supply, wherein the method comprises the following steps: determining a power grid scheme of a planning target year, determining an operation mode of a power system and corresponding system data according to the power grid scheme, and inputting corresponding tide data files, stable data files and reliability parameters; generating an expected failure set of the power system, and determining an expected failure state of the system from the expected failure set by adopting a failure enumeration method, wherein the expected failure state comprises a failure type, a failure position and failure removal time; performing system transient stability calculation on an expected fault state of the power system to obtain a transient stability calculation result of the power system; judging whether the power system is unstable or not according to the transient stability calculation result, and calculating the reliability probability index of the event causing the power system to be unstable to obtain the dynamic reliability probability index of the power system caused by the event.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of reliability evaluation of power systems, and in particular relates to a method and a device for quantitatively evaluating reliability of nuclear power loss external power supply and a storage medium.
Background
Reliability represents the ability of a system to guarantee functionality that meets consumer demand, and power system reliability is a measure of the ability of a power system to continuously supply power and electrical energy to consumers of power in acceptable quality standards and required quantities. The reliability of the power system includes both adequacy and safety aspects.
Adequacy refers to the ability of an electrical power system to maintain a continuous supply of the total electrical power demand and total electrical energy to a consumer, while taking into account planned outages of system components and reasonably expected unplanned outages. Adequacy is also known as static reliability, i.e., the ability of a power system to meet consumer power and electrical energy under static conditions.
Safety refers to the ability of the power system to withstand suddenly occurring disturbances, such as sudden or unexpected short circuits or unexpected loss of system elements. Safety is also known as dynamic reliability, i.e., the ability of an electrical power system to withstand sudden disturbances and to provide electrical power and energy to consumers without interruption under dynamic conditions.
The power system is large in scale, and since the power system is a complex and dynamic system, the power system is divided into a plurality of subsystems, and the reliability of each subsystem is evaluated according to the functions of the subsystems, including: and evaluating the reliability of the electric main wiring of the power generation system, the power transmission system, the power generation and transmission synthesis system, the power distribution system and the power station substation of the power plant.
Reliability of the power generation system: and all the generator sets which are connected in a unified mode meet the measurement of the load power and the electric energy demand capacity of the power system according to the acceptable standard and the expected quantity.
Reliability of the power generation and transmission system: and the power generation and transmission system is formed by integrating a power generation system and a power transmission system which are operated in a unified grid connection mode, and the power generation and transmission system supplies power and the measurement of the capacity of electric energy to the power supply point according to the acceptable standard and the expected quantity. The reliability of the system comprises adequacy and safety.
Reliability of the power transmission system: delivering power from a power supply point to a supply point meets a measure of the power load power and power energy demand capability in acceptable standards and desired amounts. It also includes both adequacy and safety aspects.
Distribution system reliability: the power supply point is the measurement of the power demand capacity of the user, which is measured by the acceptable standard and the expected quantity, of the whole power distribution system and equipment including the power distribution substation, the high-low voltage lines and the user lines.
Reliability of electrical main wiring of power station: the entire main wiring system meets the measures of the power supply and power demand capacity according to the reliability criteria given that the indicators of the reliability of the elements (circuit breakers, transformers, disconnectors, buses) that make up the main wiring system are known and the reliability criteria.
The power system reliability is measured by a quantitative reliability index. In general, the probability, frequency, duration, expected power loss and expected power loss caused by faults, and the like of adverse effects of the faults on power users can be obtained, and different subsystems can have special reliability indexes.
From the objects and content of the study, the power system reliability study can be divided into three layers: the first layer is a power generation system reliability assessment, also known as a power supply reliability assessment. The second layer is the reliability evaluation of the power transmission and synthesis system, which is also called the reliability evaluation of the large power system or the reliability evaluation of the main grid, and the second layer increases the reliability evaluation of the power transmission system on the first layer. The third layer is the reliability evaluation of the power system including the power generation, transmission and distribution systems, and the reliability evaluation of the electric main wiring and the distribution system of the power station substation is added on the basis of the second layer, and due to the complexity of the problems, the reliability evaluation of the electric main wiring and the distribution system of the power station substation is only carried out independently at present.
The power generation system is an important subsystem of the power system, and whether the available capacity of the power generation system can meet the load requirement is the most fundamental problem in consideration of the reliability of the power system. In the reliability evaluation of the power generation system, in order to highlight contradiction, it is assumed that the power transmission system between the generator and the load is completely reliable, and the electric energy generated by the power supply can reach the load without loss, so that the reliability index intensively reflects the influence of the power generation system on the load.
In the reliability research of the power transmission system and the reliability research of the power generation and transmission composite system, the method comprises the two aspects of adequacy and safety. The safety index reflects the degree to which the system capacity of the power generation and transmission system meets the load demand under the dynamic condition in a short period of time. Another aspect of safety refers to the integrity of the system, i.e., the ability of the power system to maintain joint operation. The integrity of an electrical power system is often related to the ability to maintain continuous operation of the electrical power system, and once the integrity is broken when subjected to sudden large disturbances, it may lead to stable destruction, uncontrolled series of system disconnection, and finally large-area power outages. Because the types of faults suffered by the system, the places where the faults occur and the like are random, namely the state of the system during the faults, the action condition of protection after the faults and the processing result of the faults by operating personnel and the like have inherent randomness, most of load losing conditions in the power system are related to the dynamic or transient behaviors of the system, and the analysis complexity is greatly increased.
The power generation and transmission composite system is also called a large power system (Bulk Power System), and the reliability thereof means that: the ability of a power generation and transmission composite system (composed of a power generation system and a transmission system) operating in a unified grid-connected mode to supply power and energy to a power supply point according to acceptable standards and expected quantities. While the reliability of the transmission system only evaluates the power supply capacity of the system between the power supply point and the power supply point.
The reliability of the power distribution system is mainly evaluated for adequacy, which is embodied by a reliability index. The power distribution system reliability indicators generally include probability, frequency, duration, expected power loss due to faults, expected energy loss due to faults, and the like of adverse effects of the faults on power consumers.
The power system is essentially a random system. The probabilistic analysis of the power system evaluates the performance of the power system both overall and macroscopically based on probabilistic modeling and statistical evaluation of the power system. The purpose of the reliability probability assessment of the power system is to study the capability of safe operation of the system and accidents such as power outage and disconnection which can be caused by faults of elements and the like, and to represent the reliability performance of the system by quantitative indexes such as expected values of the power outage probability (Loss of Load Probability), the power outage frequency (Loss of Load Frequency), the power outage time (Loss of Load Duration), the power outage (Expected Power Not Supplied), the power outage loss cost (Loss of Load Cost) and the like. To accomplish the above analytical calculations, certain mathematical models and solution tools need to be built. The reliability analysis method of the power system can be mainly divided into a deterministic evaluation method and a probabilistic evaluation method, wherein the probabilistic evaluation method is divided into an analysis method and an analog method.
(a) Deterministic evaluation method
The deterministic method is to study the reliability level of the system in the event of an expected failure. The conventional system or safety test is a deterministic reliability evaluation method, namely, when any (or K) elements (such as a generator, a line, a transformer and the like) are out of operation, the power flow and the node voltage of the line in the system are calculated, and whether overload or voltage out-of-range phenomenon occurs is tested. The calculation result of the deterministic method can make a rough estimation on the safety of the system, and provides measures for improving weak links, but only some fault types with fewer fault weights can be expected to have accident results, and how much the probability of accident occurrence is can not be given, so that the deterministic evaluation method is gradually replaced by a probabilistic analysis method along with the development of computer simulation technology.
(b) Probabilistic evaluation method
The probability evaluation method is to give out the probability of element faults and repair, and calculate the operation parameter change interval of the system and the nodes and the probability of different faults, thereby having a more comprehensive and objective evaluation on the reliability of the system. The probabilistic evaluation method is divided into an analytical method and an analog method.
The analytical method reasonably idealizes the life course of the element or system, and describes the life course by using a mathematical model, such as an exponential distribution (density function) or a piecewise function (such as bathtub curve describing the change of the failure rate of the element with time, etc.), and then obtains the required reliability index by solving through manual calculation or computer calculation program. Common methods of analysis include a network method, a state space method, and a fault tree analysis method.
The analytical method has the advantages that the system reliability can be analyzed carefully by using a stricter mathematical model and effective algorithms, and the accuracy is higher, so that the analytical method is commonly used for reliability evaluation of a power generation system and a plurality of simplified or small combined systems, such as calculation of static power generation capacity reliability, simple analysis of an interconnection system, random production simulation and the like. For large combined power systems, many elements needing simulation, such as generators, transformers, transmission lines, buses, circuit breakers, relay protection and the like, are required, and the maintenance arrangement and derating operation states of a generator set, uncertainty and correlation of load prediction, common mode faults of the lines, related faults and the like are also considered, so that the state space is extremely large, even if related fault states are combined and events with small occurrence probability are simplified, the number of states required to be studied is still large, an accurate mathematical model is difficult to be given by adopting an analytical method, or even if the accurate result is difficult to be calculated, and in this case, the probability simulation method is more suitable and sometimes even the only feasible evaluation method.
The simulation method simulates the actual life process of the system and the components on a computer, and estimates the required reliability index by observing the simulation process for a plurality of times, so the simulation method treats the process as a real experiment of the system. Monte-Carlo simulation is a necessary implementation of simulation.
The simulation method is suitable for large-scale combined power systems which simulate elements with non-exponential distribution of fault rate, distribution functions or statistical data which need to output certain data, complex relations between planning and maintenance, and the like. In particular, for large power systems, simulation methods have less computation time than analytical methods. The system has two state elements, and the state space method has one space state number, so that the calculated amount is doubled theoretically every time one element is added. The actual calculation of the reliability evaluation of the large-scale system shows that the number of elements is doubled, and the total simulation time (or sampling times) is not increased much under the condition of ensuring the same precision, so that the calculation cost of the large-scale power system is lower by adopting the simulation method than by adopting the analysis method.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the problem of computational complexity in the probability instability evaluation method described in the background art, the invention provides a reliability quantitative evaluation method, a device and a storage medium for nuclear power loss external power supply.
According to one aspect of the invention, there is provided a method for quantitatively evaluating the reliability of a nuclear power loss external power supply, comprising:
determining a power grid scheme of a planning target year, determining an operation mode of a power system and corresponding system data according to the power grid scheme, and inputting corresponding tide data files, stable data files and reliability parameters;
generating an expected failure set of the power system, and determining an expected failure state of the system from the expected failure set by adopting a failure enumeration method, wherein the expected failure state comprises a failure type, a failure position and failure removal time;
performing system transient stability calculation on an expected fault state of the power system to obtain a transient stability calculation result of the power system;
judging whether the power system is unstable or not according to the transient stability calculation result, and calculating the reliability probability index of the event causing the power system to be unstable to obtain the dynamic reliability probability index of the power system caused by the event.
Optionally, the generating the set of expected faults of the power system includes:
calculating the conventional power flow under the condition of normal operation of the system;
and according to a result file output by the tide calculation, acquiring and analyzing the number of nodes of the element number and the number of network lines of the power system, determining a system basic structure, and forming an expected fault set of the power system.
Optionally, the calculating the transient stability of the system for the expected fault state of the power system to obtain a transient stability calculation result of the power system includes:
and running a transient stability calculation program of the BPA on the basis of a result file output by the power flow calculation according to the obtained number of nodes of the element number and the number of network lines, and carrying out transient stability analysis calculation on a power grid scheme of a planning target year under different fault conditions to obtain a transient stability calculation result of the power system.
Optionally, the determining whether the power system loses stability according to the transient stability calculation result includes:
setting a stability judging threshold of voltage, frequency and power angle according to a preset stability criterion;
and based on a transient stability calculation result, carrying out voltage, frequency and power angle stability analysis on each element in the power system according to a set threshold value, and judging whether the power system loses safety and stability.
Optionally, the calculating the reliability probability index of the event causing the power system to lose stability to obtain the dynamic reliability probability index of the power system caused by the event includes:
according to the reliability historical data of each element in the power system, the following formula is used for calculating an event which causes the power system to lose stability to carry out reliability probability indexes:
P LODS ＝P A +P B +P C +P D ；
Wherein P is LODS Representing the total dynamic reliability probability index of the whole power system; p (P) A Dynamic safety risk indexes of the power system when a preset fault occurs are represented; p (P) B The dynamic safety risk index of the power system when the double-circuit line is one-circuit three-permanent and one-circuit relay protection malfunction occurs is shown; p (P) C Dynamic safety risk indexes of the power system when the short circuit fault of the power transmission line occurs and the refusal action fault of the switch on one side is indicated; p (P) D And the dynamic safety risk index of the power system when the bus short-circuit fault occurs and the bus differential protection refuses to act.
Alternatively, P is calculated by the following formula A ：
Wherein M represents the number of operation modes;representing the ratio of the operation mode m; j represents the total number of elements; i represents the total number of fault types; p is p j The probability of the system state when element j fails; p is p ji Representing the probability of an element j to fail of class i; f (F) mji The value of the system test function is represented when element j fails in class i in run mode m.
Alternatively, P is calculated by the following formula B ：
Wherein M represents the number of operation modes;representing the operating mode mA ratio of the components; j represents the total number of elements; i represents the total number of fault types; p is p rf The relay protection misoperation probability of the circuit is represented; pj represents the probability of the system state when the line j fails; p is p ji The probability of occurrence of the ith class of faults of the line j is represented; f (F) rfmji And the value of the system test function when the relay protection of the other circuit is in misoperation when the ith type of fault occurs to the circuit j in the operation mode m.
Alternatively, P is calculated by the following formula C ：
Wherein M represents the number of operation modes;representing the ratio of the operation mode m; j represents the total number of elements; i represents the total number of fault types; p is p cr The switch rejection probability is represented; p is p j The probability of the system state when element j fails; p is p ji Representing the probability of an element j to fail of class i; f (F) crmji And the value of the system test function when the switch on the ith type of fault side of the power transmission line j fails in the operation mode m is represented.
Alternatively, P is calculated by the following formula D ：
Wherein M represents the number of operation modes;representing the ratio of the operation mode m; j represents the total number of elements; i represents the total number of fault types; p is p bdrpr Representing the master differential protection refusal action probability; pj represents the probability of the system state when bus j fails; p is p ji Representing the probability of an element j to fail of class i; f (F) bdrprmji Representing system test function when ith type of fault bus differential protection refusal occurs to bus j under operation mode mValues.
According to still another aspect of the present invention, there is provided a reliability quantitative evaluation device for loss of external power supply for nuclear power, comprising:
The power grid scheme determining module is used for determining a power grid scheme of a planning target year, determining an operation mode of a power system and corresponding system data according to the power grid scheme, and inputting corresponding tide data files, stable data files and reliability parameters;
the system comprises an expected fault state determining module, a fault detection module and a fault detection module, wherein the expected fault state determining module is used for generating an expected fault set of the power system and determining an expected fault state of the system from the expected fault set by adopting a fault enumeration method, wherein the expected fault state comprises a fault type, a fault position and a fault removal time;
the system transient stability calculation module is used for carrying out system transient stability calculation on the expected fault state of the power system to obtain a transient stability calculation result of the power system;
and the dynamic reliability probability index calculation module is used for judging whether the power system is unstable according to the transient stability calculation result, and carrying out reliability probability index calculation on an event which causes the power system to lose stability to obtain the dynamic reliability probability index of the power system caused by the event.
According to a further aspect of the present invention there is provided a computer readable storage medium storing a computer program for performing the method according to any one of the above aspects of the present invention.
According to still another aspect of the present invention, there is provided an electronic device including: a processor; a memory for storing the processor-executable instructions; the processor is configured to read the executable instructions from the memory and execute the instructions to implement the method according to any of the above aspects of the present invention.
The method comprises the steps of firstly determining a power grid scheme of a planning target year, determining an operation mode of a power system and corresponding system data according to the power grid scheme, and inputting corresponding tide data files, stable data files and reliability parameters. Then, an expected failure set of the power system is generated and an expected failure state of the system is determined from the expected failure set using a failure enumeration method, wherein the expected failure state includes a failure type, a failure location, and a failure removal time. And secondly, performing system transient stability calculation on the expected fault state of the power system to obtain a transient stability calculation result of the power system. And finally, judging whether the power system is unstable or not according to a transient stability calculation result, and calculating a reliability probability index of an event causing the power system to be unstable to obtain a dynamic reliability probability index of the power system caused by the event. Therefore, the probability instability evaluation calculation of the nuclear power plant external power supply losing caused by the instability of the nuclear power plant external power supply based on the fault enumeration method can enable the probability instability analysis to reach the practical level, and the probability stability reliability evaluation index can quantitatively reflect the safety reliability level of the nuclear power plant external power supply.
Drawings
Exemplary embodiments of the present invention may be more completely understood in consideration of the following drawings:
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for quantitatively evaluating the reliability of a nuclear power loss external power supply according to an exemplary embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a flow chart for quantitatively evaluating the reliability of nuclear power lost from external power supply due to instability of the external power supply of the nuclear power plant according to an exemplary embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of a device for quantitatively evaluating the reliability of a nuclear power loss external power supply according to an exemplary embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 4 is a structure of an electronic device provided in an exemplary embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
Hereinafter, exemplary embodiments according to the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. It should be apparent that the described embodiments are only some embodiments of the present invention and not all embodiments of the present invention, and it should be understood that the present invention is not limited by the example embodiments described herein.
It should be noted that: the relative arrangement of the components and steps, numerical expressions and numerical values set forth in these embodiments do not limit the scope of the present invention unless it is specifically stated otherwise.
Fig. 1 shows a flow diagram of a method for quantitatively evaluating the reliability of nuclear power loss external power supply. As shown in fig. 1, the reliability quantitative evaluation method for the nuclear power loss external power supply comprises the following steps:
Step S101: determining a power grid scheme of a planning target year, determining an operation mode of a power system and corresponding system data according to the power grid scheme, and inputting corresponding tide data files, stable data files and reliability parameters;
in the embodiment of the invention, firstly, a power grid scheme for planning a target year is required to be selected, an operation mode of a system and corresponding system data are determined, the system data comprise bus, line and generator data, and corresponding tide, stable data files and reliability parameters are input. Specifically, the power grid scheme of the planning target year is screened out from the preliminary planning design scheme. And then, selecting a preselected planning scheme, inputting corresponding tide and stable data files of the scheme, and inputting parameters such as low-frequency low-voltage load shedding of a power grid. Sorting reliability parameters of an analysis system, comprising: the failure rate (times/year), the failure average repair time (hours/times), the planned maintenance rate (times/year), the planned maintenance time (hours/times), the misoperation probability of the relay protection device and the like of the element.
Step S102: generating an expected failure set of the power system, and determining an expected failure state of the system from the expected failure set by adopting a failure enumeration method, wherein the expected failure state comprises a failure type, a failure position and failure removal time;
Optionally, the generating the set of expected faults of the power system includes: calculating the conventional power flow under the condition of normal operation of the system; and according to a result file output by the tide calculation, acquiring and analyzing the number of nodes of the element number and the number of network lines of the power system, determining a system basic structure, and forming an expected fault set of the power system.
In the embodiment of the invention, a power flow calculation program of BPA needs to be operated first to obtain a power flow calculation output result file. Then, the number of elements (generators, transformers and the like), the number of nodes and the number of network lines of the analysis system are obtained from the tide result file, and the basic structure of the system is determined to form a fault set. The fault set formed in the calculation not only considers the single fault modes of the line, the transformer, the bus, the protection and the like, but also considers double faults, and the total number of the fault modes is 12, and the fault modes are respectively as follows:
(1) Permanent short-circuit faults of the transmission line (including single-phase earth faults, two-phase short-circuit grounding, two-phase short-circuit and three-phase short-circuit);
(2) A transient short-circuit fault of the transmission line;
(3) Open circuit fault of transmission line;
(4) A bus short circuit fault;
(5) A transformer short circuit fault;
(6) A generator failure;
(7) Two-circuit line different-phase faults in the double-circuit line or the multiple-circuit line on the same pole;
(8) Any two loops simultaneously fail;
(9) Double-circuit line one-circuit three-permanent, one-circuit relay protection misoperation;
(10) A short circuit fault of the transmission line, and refusing action of a switch on one side;
(11) Bus short circuit fault, bus differential protection refuses action.
(12) Dc bipolar latch-up failure.
Step S103: performing system transient stability calculation on an expected fault state of the power system to obtain a transient stability calculation result of the power system;
optionally, the calculating the transient stability of the system for the expected fault state of the power system to obtain a transient stability calculation result of the power system includes: and running a transient stability calculation program of the BPA on the basis of a result file output by the power flow calculation according to the obtained number of nodes of the element number and the number of network lines, and carrying out transient stability analysis calculation on a power grid scheme of a planning target year under different fault conditions to obtain a transient stability calculation result of the power system.
In the embodiment of the invention, the transient stability calculation of the system is required to be performed on the given system fault state based on the power flow calculation result, so as to obtain the transient stability calculation result. Specifically, a transient stability calculation program of BPA is operated on the basis of a tide result file through the various parameters acquired in the prior art, and transient stability analysis calculation is carried out on a research target annual power grid scheme system under different fault conditions, so that a stable calculation result file is obtained.
Step S104: judging whether the power system is unstable or not according to the transient stability calculation result, and calculating the reliability probability index of the event causing the power system to be unstable to obtain the dynamic reliability probability index of the power system caused by the event.
In the embodiment of the invention, firstly, the stability judging threshold value of the voltage, the frequency and the power angle is set according to the stability criterion in the technical Specification for the safety and stability calculation of the electric power system, and based on the stability calculation result file, each node in the electric power system is subjected to stability analysis of the voltage, the frequency and the power angle according to the set threshold value, so as to judge whether the system loses the safety and stability. And then, combining element reliability historical data, and calculating dynamic reliability probability indexes of an event which causes the system to lose safety and stability, so as to obtain the dynamic reliability probability indexes of the system, including indexes of power angle instability, voltage instability and frequency instability, caused by the event.
System dynamic reliability probability finger P LODS The calculation is as follows:
P LODS ＝P A +P B +P C +P D (1)
wherein:
P LODS representing the total dynamic security risk index of the whole system.
P A A dynamic security risk indicator representing the system when the following faults occur:
(1) Permanent short-circuit faults of the transmission line (including single-phase earth faults, two-phase short-circuit grounding, two-phase short-circuit and three-phase short-circuit);
(2) A transient short-circuit fault of the transmission line;
(3) Open circuit fault of transmission line;
(4) A bus short circuit fault;
(5) A transformer short circuit fault;
(6) A generator failure;
(7) Two-circuit line different-phase faults in the double-circuit line or the multiple-circuit line on the same pole;
(8) Any two loops simultaneously fail;
P B and the dynamic safety risk index of the system when the double-circuit line is one-circuit three-permanent and one-circuit relay protection malfunction fault occurs is indicated.
P C And (5) representing dynamic safety risk indexes of the system when the short circuit fault of the power transmission line occurs and the refusal action fault of the switch on one side.
P D And the dynamic safety risk index of the system when the bus short-circuit fault occurs and the bus differential protection refuses to act fault is indicated.
Wherein P is A Can be calculated from the following formula:
wherein:
m represents the number of operation modes;
representing the ratio of the operation mode m;
j represents the total number of elements;
i represents the total number of fault types;
p j the probability of the system state when element j fails; (the elements may be single or multiple);
p ji representing the probability of an element j to fail of class i;
F mji the value of the system test function is represented when element j fails in class i in run mode m.
P B Can be calculated from the following formula:
wherein:
m represents the number of operation modes;
representing the ratio of the operation mode m;
J represents the total number of elements;
i represents the total number of fault types;
p rf the relay protection misoperation probability of the circuit is represented;
p j the probability of the system state when the line j fails is represented;
p ji the probability of occurrence of the ith class of faults of the line j is represented;
F rfmji and the value of the system test function when the relay protection of the other circuit is in misoperation when the ith type of fault occurs to the circuit j in the operation mode m.
P C Can be calculated from the following formula:
wherein:
m represents the number of operation modes;
representing the ratio of the operation mode m;
j represents the total number of elements;
i represents the total number of fault types;
p cr the switch rejection probability is represented;
p j the probability of the system state when element j fails;
p ji representing the probability of an element j to fail of class i;
F crmji and the value of the system test function when the switch on the ith type of fault side of the power transmission line j fails in the operation mode m is represented.
P D Can be calculated from the following formula:
wherein:
m represents the number of operation modes;
representing the ratio of the operation mode m;
j represents the total number of elements;
i represents the total number of fault types;
p bdrpr representing the master differential protection refusal action probability;
p j the probability of the system state when the bus j fails is represented;
p ji representing the probability of an element j to fail of class i;
F bdrprmji and the value of the system test function when the ith type of fault bus differential protection refusal occurs to the bus j in the operation mode m.
Dynamic load shedding probability P of system expectation DLC Can be calculated from the following formula:
wherein: p (P) DLC Representing the total expected dynamic load shedding risk index of the whole system. M represents the number of operation modes;representing the ratio of the operation mode m; j represents the total failure number; />The probability of the system state at the time of occurrence of the fault j; (the fault may be single or multiple); f (F) mj Representing system dynamics when a jth fault occurs in run mode mThe value of the cut load test function.
The following will give the best examples of the present technical solution:
in the project research process, 2030 is selected as a horizontal year to analyze the reliability of the power grid outside the three-Australian nuclear power plant engineering, and 4 typical operation modes of summer load, xia Xiao load, winter load and winter load are considered in the calculation process.
From the statistical data, the reliability statistical data of the power transmission and transformation equipment in Zhejiang area is approximately equivalent to the national statistical average data. We used two sets of data for calculations in this study and conducted a comparative study on the results obtained. Reliability data for the power system elements employed in the calculations are summarized in table 1.
Table 1 element reliability data employed in the calculations
/>
The reliability of various single faults and cascading faults of the Zhejiang power grid is evaluated, and meanwhile, the reliability statistical parameters of the power grid are combined, so that probability reliability indexes of all operation modes are obtained by utilizing the algorithm. The specific reliability evaluation analysis of each operation mode is as follows:
Further, the reliability analysis of the external power system under the large summer mode of 2030 is as follows: the calculation result shows that when the first-stage and partial second-stage large disturbance occurs in the Zhejiang power grid in the large summer mode of 2030, the system can be kept stable and the three-Australian nuclear power plant can be kept running stably when the protection and the switch are operated normally. However, when the 220kV bus of the transformer substation of the Zhejiang power grid fails, the Zhejiang power grid loses stability due to protection and switch refusal, so that the safe and stable operation of the Sanao nuclear power plant is affected.
Because of the large number of failure modes calculated, only a list of failures that affect the nuclear power plant in the three australia when the system is disturbed is given, and the set of failures that affect the nuclear power plant in the three australia when the system is severely disturbed is given in table 2.
Table 2 Fault set affecting Nuclear Power plant reliability in the summer State of 2030
As can be seen from table 2, there are 3 faults that have a large disturbance to the system and have an impact on the reliability of the nuclear power plant in the summer of 2030. From the fault set, it can be seen that the fault set affecting the reliability index is mainly a bus fault and a relay protection refused action type fault.
Further, the reliability analysis of the external power system under the small summer mode of 2030 is as follows:
The calculation result shows that the system can be kept stable when the protection and the switch are both operated normally when the big disturbance of the first stage and part of the second stage occurs in the Zhejiang power grid in the small summer mode of 2030. However, when the 220kV side bus of the transformer substation of the Zhejiang power grid fails, the Zhejiang power grid loses stability due to protection and switch refusal or misoperation, so that the safe and stable operation of the Sanao nuclear power plant is affected.
Due to the large number of failure modes calculated, only a list of failures that are disturbing to the system and have an impact on the three-australian nuclear power plant is given here. Table 3 shows the set of faults that affect a three Australian nuclear plant due to a severe disturbance of the system.
Table 3 Fault set affecting Nuclear Power plant reliability in the summer-less 2030 mode
As can be seen from table 3, there are 3 faults that greatly disturb the system in the small summer 2030 mode and affect the nuclear power plant in three australia. From the fault set, it can be seen that the fault set affecting the reliability index is mainly a bus fault and a relay protection refused action type fault.
Further, the reliability analysis of the external power system under the large winter mode of 2030 is as follows:
the calculation result shows that the system can be kept stable when the protection and the switch are both operated normally when the first-stage and partial second-stage large disturbance occurs in the Zhejiang power grid in the large winter mode of 2030 year. However, when the 220kV side bus of the transformer substation of the Zhejiang power grid fails, the Zhejiang power grid loses stability due to protection and switch refusal or misoperation, so that the safe and stable operation of the Sanao nuclear power plant is affected.
Due to the large number of failure modes calculated, only a list of failures that are disturbing to the system and have an impact on the three-australian nuclear power plant is given here. Table 4 shows the set of faults that affect a three Australian nuclear plant due to a severe disturbance of the system that causes instability of the system.
Table 4 Fault set affecting Nuclear Power plant reliability in large winter year 2030
As can be seen from table 4, there are 3 faults that have a large disturbance to the system and have an impact on the nuclear power plant in the wintering mode of 2030. From the fault set, it can be seen that the fault set affecting the reliability index is mainly a bus fault and a relay protection refused action type fault.
Further, the reliability analysis of the external power system under the small winter mode of 2030 is as follows:
the calculation result shows that the system can be kept stable when the protection and the switch are both in normal action when the big disturbance of the first stage and part of the second stage occurs in the Zhejiang power grid in the small winter mode of 2030 year. However, when the 220kV side bus of the transformer substation of the Zhejiang power grid fails, the Zhejiang power grid loses stability due to protection and switch refusal or misoperation, so that the safe and stable operation of the Sanao nuclear power plant is affected.
Due to the large number of failure modes calculated, only a list of failures that are disturbing to the system and have an impact on the three-australian nuclear power plant is given here. Table 5 shows the set of faults that affect a three Australian nuclear plant due to a severe disturbance of the system that causes instability of the system.
Table 5 Fault set affecting Nuclear Power plant reliability in the winter-reduced mode 2030
As can be seen from table 5, there are 3 faults that have a large disturbance to the system and have an impact on the nuclear power plant in the small winter of 2030. From the fault set, it can be seen that the fault set affecting the reliability index is mainly a bus fault and a relay protection refused action type fault.
Events affecting the reliability of a nuclear power plant in three australia under the four modes described above are summarized in the following table:
TABLE 6 event count summary table affecting reliability of three Australian nuclear power plants
The above statistics have given the reliability parameters of the power transmission and transformation facilities such as lines, buses, transformers, etc. In addition, the proportion of three-phase faults and the probability of 220kV bus differential protection refusal in various facility faults are also required to be supplemented.
According to the recent statistical analysis of the running conditions of the relay protection and safety automatic device of the national power grid company, the statistical results of the incorrect action probability and the refusal action probability of 220kV line and bus protection are shown in the table 7 and the table 8.
TABLE 7 bus protection incorrect action probability statistics
The bus protection incorrect action probability contains false action probability and refusal action probability, and statistics shows that: the bus protection is incorrect, the misoperation is most, and the refusal is less. Therefore, the rejection probability of the bus protection in the calculation is taken as 1/3 of the incorrect action probability.
TABLE 8 line and bus protection refusal probability statistics
(1) Single fault
The reliability parameters of the power transmission and transformation facilities of the corresponding types obtained through statistics in the sixth chapter are directly taken, and the fact that the original statistics data contain all fault types is considered, and the accident affecting the reliability index at the moment is a three-phase short circuit fault, and the fault rate is required to be multiplied by the proportional coefficient corresponding to the three-phase short circuit fault.
λ'＝λ×p (7)
(2) Double failure event number
The two fault events affecting the reliability index are all incorrect actions of single equipment fault superposition protection, so the calculation principle is simpler, and only the original fault rate statistical parameter is multiplied by the protection refusal action probability value, namely
λ'＝λ×p×p 1 (8)
The corresponding fault rates are different due to different line lengths, so that when the total reliability index is calculated in a summarizing way, fault rate parts generated by line faults need to be accumulated one by one, and other equipment types can be directly multiplied by the number of fault events.
Further, the fault rate of the target year to the fault mode affecting the reliability of the Zhejiang Sanao nuclear power plant is calculated, and the result of the bus faults of the alternating current transformer substation is mainly calculated.
The total fault rate of related events affecting the reliability of the three-Australian nuclear power plant in Zhejiang is obtained by combining the fault events, and the calculation result of the total fault rate is shown in table 9.
Table 9 related event fault rate calculation table affecting reliability of nuclear power plant
The typical operation modes of the system are summer big mode, xia Xiao, winter big mode and winter small mode, which respectively represent 4 types of typical operation modes of the system, namely summer big mode, summer small mode, winter big mode and winter small mode, and if each operation mode occupies 1/4 of each year, the annual index is obtained by multiplying the total index by 1/4.
In summary, aiming at the problem of computational complexity existing in the probability instability evaluation method, the invention provides a probability instability evaluation model for nuclear power loss of external power supply caused by external power grid instability of a nuclear power plant based on an improved fault enumeration method. Thereby leading the probability instability analysis to reach the practical level. The probability stability reliability quantitative evaluation index obtained by the algorithm and the calculation step provided by the invention can quantitatively reflect the safety reliability level of the external power grid of the nuclear power plant. The calculation example shows that: the method is correct and effective, and the calculated result is reasonable and has practical reference value.
Exemplary apparatus
Fig. 3 is a schematic structural diagram of a device for quantitatively evaluating reliability of a nuclear power loss external power supply according to an exemplary embodiment of the present invention. As shown in fig. 3, the apparatus 300 includes:
The power grid scheme determining module 310 is configured to determine a power grid scheme for planning a target year, determine an operation mode in which the power system is located and corresponding system data according to the power grid scheme, and input a corresponding tide data file, a stability data file and reliability parameters;
an expected failure state determining module 320, configured to generate an expected failure set of the power system, and determine an expected failure state of the system from the expected failure set by using a failure enumeration method, where the expected failure state includes a failure type, a failure location, and a failure removal time;
the system transient stability calculation module 330 is configured to perform system transient stability calculation on an expected fault state of the power system, so as to obtain a transient stability calculation result of the power system;
the dynamic reliability probability index calculation module 340 is configured to determine whether the power system is unstable according to the transient stability calculation result, and calculate the reliability probability index of the event that causes the power system to lose stability, so as to obtain the dynamic reliability probability index of the power system caused by the event.
The reliability quantitative evaluation device for the nuclear power loss external power supply in the embodiment of the invention corresponds to the reliability quantitative evaluation method for the nuclear power loss external power supply in another embodiment of the invention, and is not described herein.
Exemplary electronic device
Fig. 4 is a structure of an electronic device provided in an exemplary embodiment of the present invention. As shown in fig. 4, the electronic device 40 includes one or more processors 41 and memory 42.
The processor 41 may be a Central Processing Unit (CPU) or other form of processing unit having data processing and/or instruction execution capabilities, and may control other components in the electronic device to perform desired functions.
Memory 42 may include one or more computer program products that may include various forms of computer-readable storage media, such as volatile memory and/or non-volatile memory. The volatile memory may include, for example, random Access Memory (RAM) and/or cache memory (cache), and the like. The non-volatile memory may include, for example, read Only Memory (ROM), hard disk, flash memory, and the like. One or more computer program instructions may be stored on the computer readable storage medium that may be executed by the processor 41 to implement the method of information mining historical change records and/or other desired functions of the software program of the various embodiments of the present invention described above. In one example, the electronic device may further include: an input device 43 and an output device 44, which are interconnected by a bus system and/or other forms of connection mechanisms (not shown).
In addition, the input device 43 may also include, for example, a keyboard, a mouse, and the like.
The output device 44 can output various information to the outside. The output device 44 may include, for example, a display, speakers, a printer, and a communication network and remote output apparatus connected thereto, etc.
Of course, only some of the components of the electronic device that are relevant to the present invention are shown in fig. 4 for simplicity, components such as buses, input/output interfaces, etc. being omitted. In addition, the electronic device may include any other suitable components depending on the particular application.
Exemplary computer program product and computer readable storage Medium
In addition to the methods and apparatus described above, embodiments of the invention may also be a computer program product comprising computer program instructions which, when executed by a processor, cause the processor to perform steps in a method according to various embodiments of the invention described in the "exemplary methods" section of this specification.
The computer program product may write program code for performing operations of embodiments of the present invention in any combination of one or more programming languages, including an object oriented programming language such as Java, C++ or the like and conventional procedural programming languages, such as the "C" programming language or similar programming languages. The program code may execute entirely on the user's computing device, partly on the user's device, as a stand-alone software package, partly on the user's computing device, partly on a remote computing device, or entirely on the remote computing device or server.
Furthermore, embodiments of the present invention may also be a computer-readable storage medium, having stored thereon computer program instructions which, when executed by a processor, cause the processor to perform the steps in a method of mining history change records according to various embodiments of the present invention described in the "exemplary methods" section above in this specification.
The computer readable storage medium may employ any combination of one or more readable media. The readable medium may be a readable signal medium or a readable storage medium. The readable storage medium can include, for example, but is not limited to, an electronic, magnetic, optical, electromagnetic, infrared, or semiconductor system, or device, or a combination of any of the foregoing. More specific examples (a non-exhaustive list) of the readable storage medium would include the following: an electrical connection having one or more wires, a portable disk, a hard disk, random Access Memory (RAM), read-only memory (ROM), erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM or flash memory), optical fiber, portable compact disk read-only memory (CD-ROM), an optical storage device, a magnetic storage device, or any suitable combination of the foregoing.
The basic principles of the present invention have been described above in connection with specific embodiments, however, it should be noted that the advantages, benefits, effects, etc. mentioned in the present invention are merely examples and not intended to be limiting, and these advantages, benefits, effects, etc. are not to be considered as essential to the various embodiments of the present invention. Furthermore, the specific details disclosed herein are for purposes of illustration and understanding only, and are not intended to be limiting, as the invention is not necessarily limited to practice with the above described specific details.
In this specification, each embodiment is described in a progressive manner, and each embodiment is mainly described in a different manner from other embodiments, so that the same or similar parts between the embodiments are mutually referred to. For system embodiments, the description is relatively simple as it essentially corresponds to method embodiments, and reference should be made to the description of method embodiments for relevant points.
The block diagrams of the devices, systems, apparatuses, systems according to the present invention are merely illustrative examples and are not intended to require or imply that the connections, arrangements, configurations must be made in the manner shown in the block diagrams. As will be appreciated by one of skill in the art, the devices, systems, apparatuses, systems may be connected, arranged, configured in any manner. Words such as "including," "comprising," "having," and the like are words of openness and mean "including but not limited to," and are used interchangeably therewith. The terms "or" and "as used herein refer to and are used interchangeably with the term" and/or "unless the context clearly indicates otherwise. The term "such as" as used herein refers to, and is used interchangeably with, the phrase "such as, but not limited to.
The method and system of the present invention may be implemented in a number of ways. For example, the methods and systems of the present invention may be implemented by software, hardware, firmware, or any combination of software, hardware, firmware. The above-described sequence of steps for the method is for illustration only, and the steps of the method of the present invention are not limited to the sequence specifically described above unless specifically stated otherwise. Furthermore, in some embodiments, the present invention may also be embodied as programs recorded in a recording medium, the programs including machine-readable instructions for implementing the methods according to the present invention. Thus, the present invention also covers a recording medium storing a program for executing the method according to the present invention.
It is also noted that in the systems, devices and methods of the present invention, components or steps may be disassembled and/or assembled. Such decomposition and/or recombination should be considered as equivalent aspects of the present invention. The previous description of the disclosed aspects is provided to enable any person skilled in the art to make or use the present invention. Various modifications to these aspects will be readily apparent to those skilled in the art, and the generic principles defined herein may be applied to other aspects without departing from the scope of the invention. Thus, the present invention is not intended to be limited to the aspects shown herein but is to be accorded the widest scope consistent with the principles and novel features disclosed herein.
The foregoing description has been presented for purposes of illustration and description. Furthermore, this description is not intended to limit embodiments of the invention to the form disclosed herein. Although a number of example aspects and embodiments have been discussed above, a person of ordinary skill in the art will recognize certain variations, modifications, alterations, additions, and subcombinations thereof.
Claims (12)
1. The quantitative evaluation method for the reliability of the nuclear power loss external power supply is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
determining a power grid scheme of a planning target year, determining an operation mode of a power system and corresponding system data according to the power grid scheme, and inputting corresponding tide data files, stable data files and reliability parameters;
generating an expected failure set of the power system, and determining an expected failure state of the system from the expected failure set by adopting a failure enumeration method, wherein the expected failure state comprises a failure type, a failure position and failure removal time;
performing system transient stability calculation on an expected fault state of the power system to obtain a transient stability calculation result of the power system;
judging whether the power system is unstable or not according to the transient stability calculation result, and calculating the reliability probability index of the event causing the power system to be unstable to obtain the dynamic reliability probability index of the power system caused by the event.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the generating the set of expected faults for the power system comprises:
calculating the conventional power flow under the condition of normal operation of the system;
and according to a result file output by the tide calculation, acquiring and analyzing the number of nodes of the element number and the number of network lines of the power system, determining a system basic structure, and forming an expected fault set of the power system.
3. The method according to claim 2, wherein the calculating the transient stability of the power system by calculating the transient stability of the power system according to the expected fault state of the power system includes:
and running a transient stability calculation program of the BPA on the basis of a result file output by the power flow calculation according to the obtained number of nodes of the element number and the number of network lines, and carrying out transient stability analysis calculation on a power grid scheme of a planning target year under different fault conditions to obtain a transient stability calculation result of the power system.
4. The method of claim 3, wherein determining whether the power system is unstable based on the transient stability calculation comprises:
setting a stability judging threshold of voltage, frequency and power angle according to a preset stability criterion;
And based on a transient stability calculation result, carrying out voltage, frequency and power angle stability analysis on each element in the power system according to a set threshold value, and judging whether the power system loses safety and stability.
5. The method according to claim 4, wherein the calculating the reliability probability index for the event causing the power system to lose stability to obtain the dynamic reliability probability index for the power system caused by the event comprises:
according to the reliability historical data of each element in the power system, the following formula is used for calculating an event which causes the power system to lose stability to carry out reliability probability indexes:
P LODS ＝P A +P B +P C +P D ；
wherein P is LODS Representing the total dynamic reliability probability index of the whole power system; p (P) A Dynamic safety risk indexes of the power system when a preset fault occurs are represented; p (P) B The dynamic safety risk index of the power system when the double-circuit line is one-circuit three-permanent and one-circuit relay protection malfunction occurs is shown; p (P) C Dynamic safety risk indexes of the power system when the short circuit fault of the power transmission line occurs and the refusal action fault of the switch on one side is indicated; p (P) D And the dynamic safety risk index of the power system when the bus short-circuit fault occurs and the bus differential protection refuses to act.
6. The method of claim 5, wherein P is calculated by the formula A ：
Wherein M represents the number of operation modes;representing the ratio of the operation mode m; j represents the total number of elements; i represents the total number of fault types; p is p j The probability of the system state when element j fails; p is p ji Representing the probability of an element j to fail of class i; f (F) mji The value of the system test function is represented when element j fails in class i in run mode m.
7. The method of claim 5, wherein P is calculated by the formula B ：
Wherein M represents the number of operation modes;representing the ratio of the operation mode m; j represents the total number of elements; i represents the total number of fault types; p is p rf The relay protection misoperation probability of the circuit is represented; p is p j The probability of the system state when the line j fails is represented; p is p ji The probability of occurrence of the ith class of faults of the line j is represented; f (F) rfmji And the value of the system test function when the relay protection of the other circuit is in misoperation when the ith type of fault occurs to the circuit j in the operation mode m.
8. The method of claim 5, wherein P is calculated by the formula C ：
Wherein M represents the number of operation modes;representing the ratio of the operation mode m; j represents the total number of elements; i represents the total number of fault types; p is p cr The switch rejection probability is represented; p is p j The probability of the system state when element j fails; p is p ji Representing the probability of an element j to fail of class i; f (F) crmji And the value of the system test function when the switch on the ith type of fault side of the power transmission line j fails in the operation mode m is represented.
9. The method of claim 5, wherein P is calculated by the formula D ：
Wherein M represents the number of operation modes;representing the ratio of the operation mode m; j represents the total number of elements; i represents the total number of fault types; p is p bdrpr Representing the master differential protection refusal action probability; p is p j The probability of the system state when the bus j fails is represented; p is p ji Representing the probability of an element j to fail of class i; f (F) bdrprmji And the value of the system test function when the ith type of fault bus differential protection refusal occurs to the bus j in the operation mode m.
10. The utility model provides a nuclear power loses reliability quantitative evaluation device of external power which characterized in that includes:
the power grid scheme determining module is used for determining a power grid scheme of a planning target year, determining an operation mode of a power system and corresponding system data according to the power grid scheme, and inputting corresponding tide data files, stable data files and reliability parameters;
the system comprises an expected fault state determining module, a fault detection module and a fault detection module, wherein the expected fault state determining module is used for generating an expected fault set of the power system and determining an expected fault state of the system from the expected fault set by adopting a fault enumeration method, wherein the expected fault state comprises a fault type, a fault position and a fault removal time;
The system transient stability calculation module is used for carrying out system transient stability calculation on the expected fault state of the power system to obtain a transient stability calculation result of the power system;
and the dynamic reliability probability index calculation module is used for judging whether the power system is unstable according to the transient stability calculation result, and carrying out reliability probability index calculation on an event which causes the power system to lose stability to obtain the dynamic reliability probability index of the power system caused by the event.
11. A computer readable storage medium, characterized in that the storage medium stores a computer program for executing the method of any of the preceding claims 1-9.
12. An electronic device, the electronic device comprising:
a processor;
a memory for storing the processor-executable instructions;
the processor being configured to read the executable instructions from the memory and execute the instructions to implement the method of any of the preceding claims 1-9.
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