CN116862251A - High-reliability distribution method and system for weight of each index of substation equipment - Google Patents
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Abstract
The application discloses a high-reliability distribution method and a system for each index weight of substation equipment, comprising the following steps: determining index objects to be evaluated of substation equipment, and determining the number of indexes at the same level; evaluating n indexes of the hierarchy through m experts to construct a preliminary evaluation matrix; respectively calculating the average value and variance of the evaluation scores given by the experts, and determining the reasonable scores and the unreasonable scores in the scores of the experts; adjusting the unreasonable score to obtain an improved evaluation matrix; judging whether the improved evaluation matrix meets the requirements or not through consistency test, if so, obtaining the weight of all indexes of the hierarchy; otherwise, the expert scoring is performed again. According to the application, the unreasonable score value of each layer of index is adjusted, and whether the evaluation matrix has a problem or not is judged through consistency test after adjustment is completed, so that the reliability and rationality of the index weight of each layer of substation equipment are ensured.
Description
Technical Field
The application relates to the technical field of reliability evaluation of electrical equipment, in particular to a high-reliability distribution method and system for each index weight of substation equipment.
Background
The statements in this section merely provide background information related to the present disclosure and may not necessarily constitute prior art.
In order to ensure the normal operation of various power equipment and meet the safety and stability in the process of transmitting electric energy, importance evaluation needs to be carried out on various indexes of substation equipment. Since the change of each state index has different influence degrees on the overall state of various electrical equipment, scientifically determining the index weight is a key for accurately evaluating the state of the equipment.
At present, aiming at the problems of complex structure, numerous state indexes and extremely high uncertainty of state information of all electrical equipment in a transformer substation, a hierarchical analysis method and an expert evaluation method are mainly adopted to endow different weights to all the level indexes. However, these methods are greatly affected by the influence of the data source and subjective randomness, and the index weight distribution given by each expert may have a large difference, and may be slightly insufficient in terms of the reliability of the weight distribution.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the problems, the application provides a high-reliability distribution method and a high-reliability distribution system for each index weight of substation equipment, aiming at subjectivity and randomness which are easy to appear when an expert divides each level of index weight of the substation equipment, the reliability of each expert evaluation score is determined by adopting an uncertain integral of a normal distribution probability model in an evaluation average value 3 sigma interval.
In some embodiments, the following technical scheme is adopted:
a high reliability distribution method for each index weight of substation equipment comprises the following steps:
determining index objects to be evaluated of substation equipment, and determining the number of indexes at the same level;
evaluating n indexes of the hierarchy through m experts to construct a preliminary evaluation matrix E; the element in the preliminary evaluation matrix E is the evaluation value of the ith index of the equipment to the jth index;
the mean and variance of the evaluation scores given by the experts are calculated separately:
determining reasonable scores and unreasonable scores in the expert scores by combining probability distribution functions of the expert scores; adjusting the unreasonable score to obtain an improved evaluation matrix E;
judging whether the improved evaluation matrix E meets the requirements or not through consistency test, if so, obtaining the weight of all indexes of the hierarchy; otherwise, the expert scoring is performed again.
As a further scheme, a preliminary evaluation matrix E is constructed, specifically:
wherein e ij The evaluation value of the ith index to the jth index of the equipment under the same layer is represented, the evaluation value is the average value of scores given by all experts, and n is the number of the indexes of the layer.
As a further solution, the expert uses a five-point scale to score the score, which matches the normal distribution.
As a further approach, the reasonable score among the expert scores satisfies:
wherein μ and σ 2 Respectively equivalent to the mean and variance of the evaluation scores, X 1 ,X 2 …X m The scores are respectively given by m experts, and X is a sample collection set; τ is a constant.
As a further solution, the unreasonable score in the expert score is adjusted, specifically:
wherein X is 1 ,X 2 …X m The scores given by m experts respectively, X is a sample collection, [ A (X) ]] MIN Representing the minimum value in the rational fraction array, [ A (x)] MAX Representing the maximum value in the rational score array.
As a further aspect, element E in the modified evaluation matrix E- * ij The method comprises the following steps:
where m is the number of experts,an improvement value of the score is given to each expert for the index.
As a further proposal, the modified e * ij For input variables, calculating the weight value of each index of the layer by a normalization method:
in other embodiments, the following technical solutions are adopted:
a high reliability distribution system for each index weight of substation equipment, comprising:
the index dividing module is used for determining index objects to be evaluated of the substation equipment and determining the number of indexes at the same level;
the evaluation matrix construction module is used for evaluating n indexes of the hierarchy through m experts to construct a preliminary evaluation matrix E; the element in the preliminary evaluation matrix E is the evaluation value of the ith index of the equipment to the jth index;
the evaluation matrix improvement module is used for respectively calculating the average value and the variance of the evaluation scores given by each expert: determining reasonable scores and unreasonable scores in the expert scores by combining probability distribution functions of the expert scores; adjusting the unreasonable score to obtain an improved evaluation matrix E;
the weight calculation module is used for judging whether the improved evaluation matrix E meets the requirements or not through consistency test, and if so, the weight of all indexes of the hierarchy is obtained; otherwise, the expert scoring is performed again.
In other embodiments, the following technical solutions are adopted:
a terminal device comprising a processor and a memory, the processor for implementing instructions; the memory is used for storing a plurality of instructions which are suitable for being loaded by the processor and executing the high-reliability allocation method of the index weights of the substation equipment.
In other embodiments, the following technical solutions are adopted:
a computer readable storage medium having stored therein a plurality of instructions adapted to be loaded by a processor of a terminal device and to perform the above-described high reliability allocation method of the respective index weights of substation devices.
Compared with the prior art, the application has the beneficial effects that:
(1) The method can effectively distinguish the unreasonable score given by each expert, and adjust the value when the unreasonable score appears in the evaluation, thereby effectively reducing the adverse effect caused by the value; according to the application, the unreasonable score value of each layer of index is adjusted, and whether the evaluation matrix has a problem or not is judged through consistency test after adjustment is completed, so that the reliability and rationality of the index weight of each layer of substation equipment are ensured.
Additional features and advantages of the application will be set forth in part in the description which follows, and in part will be obvious from the description, or may be learned by practice of the application.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a schematic process diagram of a high-reliability distribution method of weights of various indexes of substation equipment in an embodiment of the present application.
Detailed Description
It should be noted that the following detailed description is illustrative and is intended to provide further explanation of the application. Unless defined otherwise, all technical and scientific terms used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this application belongs.
It is noted that the terminology used herein is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to be limiting of exemplary embodiments according to the present application. As used herein, the singular is also intended to include the plural unless the context clearly indicates otherwise, and furthermore, it is to be understood that the terms "comprises" and/or "comprising" when used in this specification are taken to specify the presence of stated features, steps, operations, devices, components, and/or combinations thereof.
Example 1
In one or more embodiments, a high reliability allocation method for each index weight of substation equipment is disclosed, and in combination with fig. 1, the method specifically includes the following steps:
(1) And determining index objects to be evaluated (such as importance level of equipment, equipment risk management level, equipment value evaluation and the like) of the substation equipment, and determining the number of indexes in the same level according to the equipment value (the indexes are of the same type and the values of the equipment are approximately equal).
(2) Evaluating n indexes of the hierarchy through m experts to construct a preliminary evaluation matrix E; the element in the preliminary evaluation matrix E is the evaluation value of the ith index of the equipment to the jth index;
in this embodiment, different levels of the index to be evaluated are determined, the number of indexes in the same level is divided, the indexes of the same level are compared in pairs, a five-component scale method is adopted to form a preliminary evaluation matrix E, and the evaluation matrix E has the formula:
in the formula e ij Represents the evaluation value of the ith index to the jth index of the equipment under the same layer, e ji Represents the evaluation value of the jth index to the ith index, e ij And e ji Reciprocal.
The embodiment selects the expert m person pairs with reliable authorityThe n indexes of the hierarchy are evaluated to determine a weight evaluation matrix of the indexes. Namely e ij The composition of (a) is determined by the scores given by m experts, which are not greater than 5 (five-point scale), and can be expressed as:
wherein X is 1 ,X 2 …X m The scores given for the m experts respectively,is the average value of the sample, ideally X 1 ,X 2 …X m Should approach a fixed constant, but because of the different understanding of the indices by the experts, scoring is subject to subjectivity and randomness, resulting in the final e ij Is greatly affected by the extreme value. Therefore, it is necessary to make a rationality judgment on the scores given by the respective experts.
(3) The mean and variance of the evaluation scores given by the experts are calculated separately: :
in this embodiment, the mean and variance of scores given by each expert are calculated:
in the method, in the process of the application,giving each expert an average of scores, S 2 Each expert gives the variance of the score, which should satisfy the following criteria, considering the normalization principle that the expert scores when performing the five-point scale:
wherein, mu, sigma 2 Are respectively equivalent toS 2 Expressed numerically as sample ensemble means and ensemble variance.
The probability density of all scores X meets the normal distribution function, and a probability model threshold r is set om At 0.9, an indefinite integral can be obtained for which the probability f (x) function should satisfy the following equation:
where F (x) is a distribution function obtained by integrating a probability function, and τ is a constant. It is calculated that the value is about 1.645. When the threshold is set to 0.9, the calculated τ takes on a value of about 1.645.
(4) Determining reasonable scores and unreasonable scores in the expert scores by combining probability distribution functions of the expert scores; adjusting the unreasonable score to obtain an improved evaluation matrix E;
in this embodiment, the reasonable score among the expert scores satisfies:
the scores satisfying this class are listed separately, denoted as a (x), and a (x) should be an array.
When the score is unreasonable, the unreasonable value needs to be adjusted, and the following conditions are satisfied:
wherein X is + 、X - Maximum and minimum integers within (μ - τσ, μ+τσ), respectively; [ A (x)] MIN Representing the minimum value in the rational fraction array, [ A (x)] MAX Representing the maximum value in the rational score array.
Giving the expert an improved value of the score transformed by equation (7), then e ij The modified value is e * ij ：
In this embodiment, it is necessary to determine whether the correction value is reasonable, and the determination is mainly to evaluate the score given by the expert. At this time, a lower threshold r is set im And setting a statistical function C (x) for 0.1, and when the statistical function is smaller than a lower threshold, judging that the expert has no normalization to the grading of the level index and needs to be re-graded, wherein the expression of C (x) is as follows:
wherein m is the number of scores given by the expert, and k isInner X + And X - Is a total number of (a) in the number of (a). />Giving the expert an improved value of the fraction transformed by the formula (7), k being the improved value X + Plus X - The total number of scores as given by the expert is 60, of which 5 values are changed by the formula (7), namely the value of k is 5.
(5) Judging whether the improved evaluation matrix E meets the requirements or not through consistency test, if so, obtaining the weight of all indexes of the hierarchy; otherwise, the expert scoring is performed again.
E is improved by * ij For inputting variables, calculating the weight value of each index of the layer by a normalization method to obtain an improved weight value
From the weights, a vector matrix can be obtained
When the expert gives the score, two kinds of errors may exist, namely, statistics errors are generated, namely, excessive experts give unreasonable scores, for example, the importance of the index A to the index B is compared with the average value of 2, but part of the experts give scores of 5, and judgment can be carried out through a formula (9); another type of error is a logical error, i.e. if some experts consider that the index weight of a should be greater than that of B, and some experts consider that the index weight of B should be greater than that of a, and the proportion is not small, the error can be identified by the formula (10).
In this embodiment, the improved matrix E is constructed * In order to avoid logic errors, it is necessary to determine whether a matrix has a problem by using consistency check, and the consistency ratio CR of the matrix * Should be less than 0.1, the calculation formula is:
wherein n is an improvement matrix E * RI is a variable constant representing an average uniformity scale, the value of which is based on matrix E * The magnitude of the value may be queried from the average consistency scale.
As a specific example, table 1 shows the evaluation given by 10 experts on the secondary indexes a, B, C, D.
Table 1 expert investigation results of the secondary indicators A, B, C, D
From the formulas (1) and (2), a preliminary evaluation matrix E can be obtained:
further, the variance of the score given is calculated using formula (3), where the mean is given, and each variance and overall standard deviation are:
at this time, the sample value X i Satisfies the normal distribution characteristic given by the formula (4).
Equation (5) specifies the probability model threshold r applied to the present application om According to 3 sigma law, the threshold value should be in the range of 0.8413 to 0.9987, where setting an additional lower threshold r is used im The method of (2) includes the step of thresholding the probability r om The value of (2) is set to 0.9, and the value of the uncertainty constant τ at this confidence interval is determined by equation (5) to be about 1.645.
Further, a score that does not require 3 sigma rule optimization adjustment is determined according to equation (6), namely:
judging unreasonable values in the evaluation table by using the formula (7), and adopting the formulas (7) and (8)Transformation corrects matrix elements not in A (x), and the corrected matrix element value e * ij Substituting the initial matrix E to obtain an improved matrix E as shown below * ：
Further, it is determined whether or not the correction value is reasonable, and the equation (9) defines that the lower threshold of the statistical function C (x) applied to the present application is 0.1, and the reasonable value of the threshold should be in the interval 0.1587 to 0.0013. Six statistical functions of examples E12-E34 were calculated (E24 could be excluded because of the evaluation value X therein) i Are all in the A (x) range, so C 5 (x) A value of 1, no further comparison is required), can be obtained:
thus, can employThe transformation modifies the scores given by the expert.
Further, the improved weight value is calculated by the formula (10)The total value is as follows:
separately calculateThe method can obtain:
thus, a vector matrix can be obtainedAt this time, in order to avoid logic errors in the modified matrix, it is necessary to useConsistency check determines whether the matrix has problems. Check value CR * The calculation is performed by the formula (11):
verified, optimized matrix consistency check value CR * The weights of the secondary indexes A, B, C and D after corresponding optimization are respectively [0.467 0.097 0.120 0.316 ] according with the specified standard]. Therefore, the unreasonable weight given by each expert in the evaluation matrix can be limited by using the optimization 3 sigma rule, and the adjustment and optimization can be carried out, so that the obtained index weight of each level is more reliable.
Example two
In one or more embodiments, a high reliability distribution system for each index weight of substation equipment is disclosed, comprising:
the index dividing module is used for determining index objects to be evaluated of the substation equipment and determining the number of indexes at the same level;
the evaluation matrix construction module is used for evaluating n indexes of the hierarchy through m experts to construct a preliminary evaluation matrix E; the element in the preliminary evaluation matrix E is the evaluation value of the ith index of the equipment to the jth index;
the evaluation matrix improvement module is used for respectively calculating the average value and the variance of the evaluation scores given by each expert: determining reasonable scores and unreasonable scores in the expert scores by combining probability distribution functions of the expert scores; adjusting the unreasonable score to obtain an improved evaluation matrix E;
the weight calculation module is used for judging whether the improved evaluation matrix E meets the requirements or not through consistency test, and if so, the weight of all indexes of the hierarchy is obtained; otherwise, the expert scoring is performed again.
It should be noted that, the specific implementation manner of each module has been described in detail in the first embodiment, and will not be described in detail herein.
Example III
In one or more embodiments, a terminal device is disclosed, including a server, where the server includes a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, where the processor implements a high reliability allocation method of each index weight of the substation device in the first embodiment when the program is executed. For brevity, the description is omitted here.
It should be understood that in this embodiment, the processor may be a central processing unit CPU, and the processor may also be other general purpose processors, digital signal processors DSP, application specific integrated circuits ASIC, off-the-shelf programmable gate array FPGA or other programmable logic device, discrete gate or transistor logic devices, discrete hardware components, or the like. A general purpose processor may be a microprocessor or the processor may be any conventional processor or the like.
The memory may include read only memory and random access memory and provide instructions and data to the processor, and a portion of the memory may also include non-volatile random access memory. For example, the memory may also store information of the device type.
In implementation, the steps of the above method may be performed by integrated logic circuits of hardware in a processor or by instructions in the form of software.
Example IV
In one or more embodiments, a computer readable storage medium is disclosed, in which a plurality of instructions are stored, which instructions are adapted to be loaded by a processor of a terminal device and to perform the high reliability allocation method of the index weights of the substation device described in embodiment one.
While the foregoing description of the embodiments of the present application has been presented in conjunction with the drawings, it should be understood that it is not intended to limit the scope of the application, but rather, it is intended to cover all modifications or variations within the scope of the application as defined by the claims of the present application.
Claims (10)
1. The high-reliability distribution method for the weight of each index of the substation equipment is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
determining index objects to be evaluated of substation equipment, and determining the number of indexes at the same level;
evaluating n indexes of the hierarchy through m experts to construct a preliminary evaluation matrix E; the element in the preliminary evaluation matrix E is the evaluation value of the ith index of the equipment to the jth index;
the mean and variance of the evaluation scores given by the experts are calculated separately:
determining reasonable scores and unreasonable scores in the expert scores by combining probability distribution functions of the expert scores; adjusting the unreasonable score to obtain an improved evaluation matrix E;
judging whether the improved evaluation matrix E meets the requirements or not through consistency test, if so, obtaining the weight of all indexes of the hierarchy; otherwise, the expert scoring is performed again.
2. The high reliability distribution method of each index weight of substation equipment according to claim 1, wherein the constructing of the preliminary evaluation matrix E is specifically:
wherein e ij The evaluation value of the ith index to the jth index of the equipment under the same layer is represented, the evaluation value is the average value of scores given by all experts, and n is the number of the indexes of the layer.
3. The method for high reliability distribution of weights of various indexes of substation equipment according to claim 1, wherein the expert performs scoring by using a five-point scale method, and the scoring accords with normal distribution.
4. The high reliability distribution method of each index weight of substation equipment according to claim 1, wherein a reasonable score among the expert scores satisfies:
wherein μ and σ 2 Respectively equivalent to the mean and variance of the evaluation scores, X 1 ,X 2 …X m The scores are respectively given by m experts, and X is a sample collection set; τ is a constant.
5. The high reliability distribution method of each index weight of substation equipment according to claim 1, wherein the unreasonable score of the expert scores is adjusted, specifically:
wherein X is 1 ,X 2 …X m The scores given by m experts respectively, X is a sample collection, [ A (X) ]] MIN Representing the minimum value in the rational fraction array, [ A (x)] MAX Representing the maximum value in the rational score array.
6. The method for highly reliable distribution of index weights for substation equipment according to claim 1, wherein element E in the improved evaluation matrix E # * ij The method comprises the following steps:
where m is the number of experts,an improvement value of the score is given to each expert for the index.
7. A substation configuration according to claim 6A method for highly reliable allocation of index weights, characterized by using an improved e * ij For input variables, calculating the weight value of each index of the layer by a normalization method:
8. a high reliability distribution system for each index weight of substation equipment, comprising:
the index dividing module is used for determining index objects to be evaluated of the substation equipment and determining the number of indexes at the same level;
the evaluation matrix construction module is used for evaluating n indexes of the hierarchy through m experts to construct a preliminary evaluation matrix E; the element in the preliminary evaluation matrix E is the evaluation value of the ith index of the equipment to the jth index;
the evaluation matrix improvement module is used for respectively calculating the average value and the variance of the evaluation scores given by each expert: determining reasonable scores and unreasonable scores in the expert scores by combining probability distribution functions of the expert scores; adjusting the unreasonable score to obtain an improved evaluation matrix E;
the weight calculation module is used for judging whether the improved evaluation matrix E meets the requirements or not through consistency test, and if so, the weight of all indexes of the hierarchy is obtained; otherwise, the expert scoring is performed again.
9. A terminal device comprising a processor and a memory, the processor for implementing instructions; a memory for storing a plurality of instructions, characterized in that the instructions are adapted to be loaded by a processor and to perform the high reliability allocation method of the respective index weights of the substation equipment according to any of the claims 1-7.
10. A computer readable storage medium, in which a plurality of instructions are stored, characterized in that the instructions are adapted to be loaded by a processor of a terminal device and to perform the high reliability allocation method of the respective index weights of the substation device according to any of claims 1-7.
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