CN114218522B - Method for measuring and calculating contribution degree of users in area based on information transfer entropy and method for checking fraudulent use of electricity - Google Patents
Method for measuring and calculating contribution degree of users in area based on information transfer entropy and method for checking fraudulent use of electricity Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for measuring and calculating the contribution degree of a station user based on information transfer entropy and a method for checking fraudulent use of electricity, wherein the method for measuring and calculating the contribution degree collects time sequence data of the power supply quantity, the power selling quantity and the power consumption quantity of subordinate users of the station, cleans the data, fills up the missing value, constructs a sample set, sets parameters for calculating the transfer entropy, calculates the transfer entropy between the loss power quantity of the station and the power consumption quantity of each user respectively, sorts the transfer entropy according to the size of the transfer entropy, and is used as the contribution degree sorting of the users to the line loss of the station so as to master key users affecting the line loss of the station, reduce the checking range of the fraudulent use of electricity and provide reference for an electric company to carry out line loss checking work; according to the electricity stealing checking method, different measures are adopted to check the line loss of the transformer area according to the contribution degree of the electricity consumption behaviors of all users of the transformer area, so that the high-efficiency and differentiated management of the line loss of the transformer area is realized.
Description
Technical Field
The invention discloses the technical field of power grid line loss analysis, in particular to a method for measuring and calculating contribution degree of a station user based on information transfer entropy.
Background
The line loss rate is an important economic index of a power supply enterprise and is also an important mark for measuring the comprehensive management level of the power supply enterprise. The line loss of the low-voltage distribution network accounts for about 40% of the total loss, wherein the line loss of the transformer area occupies a large proportion. The power grid line loss is divided into technical line loss and non-technical line loss, the non-technical line loss is almost completely concentrated in the low-voltage power distribution network, and the transformer area line loss management problem is very outstanding.
The electricity stealing behavior of the user is an important cause of abnormal line loss of the station area, and after the station area is determined, a great amount of manpower and material resources are consumed for checking the station area by the user, so that the accurate positioning of the electricity stealing user can be realized. In actual work, because detailed electricity consumption data of users cannot be mastered, the power company mainly determines that the line loss rate obtained through monthly electricity quantity calculation is higher than the threshold value to be a transformer area, and then selects users with higher risk electricity larceny to conduct on-site inspection according to the industry characteristics of access users, so that the efficiency is lower. With the development of big data technology and information technology, the popularity of the intelligent ammeter at the user side is improved, the electricity consumption information acquisition system is widely applied, a large amount of platform area and user side operation data are gradually accumulated, and a foundation is laid for developing data-driven user electricity stealing screening and line loss management research.
At present, common user electricity larceny methods mainly comprise two modes of reforming the metering device and reforming wires by bypassing the metering device. It can be found from field practice that, to avoid the electric company from checking and exposing, the electricity stealing user generally cannot steal all the electric quantity, and cannot steal electricity continuously for a long time. However, once the user has electricity stealing behavior, a positive correlation exists between the electricity stealing quantity of the user and the metering quantity of the electricity. In order to reduce the range of electricity stealing users and save the labor cost and time cost required by on-site investigation, after a station area is determined by the statistical line loss obtained by monthly electricity consumption, a method for measuring and calculating the contribution degree of the line loss of the users is necessary to be researched, suspected electricity stealing users are positioned, and different measures are taken according to the contribution degree to carry out investigation and rectification.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above, the invention provides a method for measuring and calculating the contribution degree of a station user based on information transfer entropy and a method for checking fraudulent use of electricity, which are used for solving the problems that in the past, in the process of checking fraudulent use of electricity, pertinence is not available and the efficiency is low.
In one aspect, the invention provides a method for measuring and calculating the contribution degree of a district user based on information transfer entropy, which comprises the following steps:
s1: collecting daily power supply quantity and sales power quantity of a station area, freezing power consumption data y of station area users at zero points every day, and performing data processing;
s2: calculating and obtaining daily loss electric quantity x of the platform area by using the daily power supply quantity and the daily sales electric quantity;
s3: constructing and obtaining a calculation sample set X, Y based on the daily loss electric quantity x of the platform area and daily zero freezing electric quantity data y of the platform area users;
wherein x= { X 1 ,x 2 ,x 3 ,...x k }，Y＝{y 1 ,y 2 ,y 3 ,...y l Each of k and l represents an actual number of days per month;
s4: calculating to obtain a transfer entropy value between the power loss of the area and the power consumption of each user by using the constructed calculation sample;
s5: and according to the calculated transfer entropy value, calculating the contribution degree of the line loss of the station user.
Preferably, in step S1, the data processing specifically includes:
eliminating obvious abnormal points in the acquired data, and then recalling the data of the missing day, if unsuccessful, filling by adopting adjacent daily electricity quantity.
Further preferably, in step S2, the formula for calculating the daily power loss x of the area is specifically as follows:
x=g-s, where g is the daily power supply capacity of the station area, and s is the daily sales capacity of the station area.
Further preferably, in step S4, a calculation formula of the transfer entropy value between the power loss of the area and the power consumption of each user is specifically as follows:
wherein p (|·|·) is the conditional probability, x i Represents the measurement value of X at the moment i, y j Represents the measured value of Y at the moment j, x i+1 Representing the measurement of X at the next moment in the future, k and l are the implantation dimensions of X and y, respectively.
Further preferably, the conditional probability p (|) is calculated by a kernel density estimation method.
Further preferably, the conditional probability p (|·|·) is calculated as follows:
wherein,θ represents the estimated window width.
Further preferably, in step S5, according to the calculated transfer entropy value, the measurement and calculation of the contribution degree of the line loss of the user in the station area is performed, which specifically includes:
and sequencing the transfer entropy values from large to small, and taking the sequencing as the sequencing of the line loss contribution degree of the station user.
On the other hand, the invention also provides a power theft checking method based on the calculation of the contribution degree of the users in the area of the information transfer entropy, which comprises the following steps:
obtaining the ranking of the contribution degree of each user line loss based on the contribution degree measuring and calculating method;
the method comprises the steps of performing one-by-one investigation aiming at users with 5% of line loss contribution degree, and performing special inspection and investigation on large commercial users by establishing a special investigation group; aiming at 5% -10% of users with the line loss contribution degree, as important attention users, if the contribution degree of two continuous months is within the first 10%, performing one-by-one investigation; and aiming at other users, performing or periodically spot checking according to a patrol plan established by an electric company.
The invention provides a method for measuring and calculating the contribution degree of a station user based on information transfer entropy, which comprises the steps of firstly collecting time sequence data of power supply quantity, power selling quantity and power consumption quantity of subordinate users in the station, cleaning the data, filling up missing values, constructing a sample set, setting parameters for calculating the transfer entropy, respectively calculating the transfer entropy between the loss power quantity of the station and the power consumption quantity of each user, sorting according to the size of the transfer entropy, and taking the sorted values as contribution degree sorting of the users to the line loss of the station, so as to master key users affecting the line loss of the station, reduce the investigation range of power stealing users and provide reference for an electric company to carry out line loss inspection work.
According to the electricity stealing investigation method for measuring and calculating the contribution degree of the users in the area based on the information transfer entropy, provided by the invention, according to the contribution degree of the electricity consumption behaviors of the users in the area to the line loss of the area, different measures are taken for investigation, so that the high-efficiency and differentiated management of the line loss of the area is realized.
It is to be understood that both the foregoing general description and the following detailed description are exemplary and explanatory only and are not restrictive of the disclosure of the invention as claimed.
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The accompanying drawings, which are incorporated in and constitute a part of this specification, illustrate embodiments consistent with the invention and together with the description, serve to explain the principles of the invention.
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings that are required to be used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly described below, and it will be obvious to those skilled in the art that other drawings can be obtained from these drawings without inventive effort.
Fig. 1 is a flow chart of a method for measuring and calculating a contribution degree of a user in a platform area based on information transfer entropy according to an embodiment of the present disclosure.
Detailed Description
Reference will now be made in detail to exemplary embodiments, examples of which are illustrated in the accompanying drawings. When the following description refers to the accompanying drawings, the same numbers in different drawings refer to the same or similar elements, unless otherwise indicated. The implementations described in the following exemplary examples do not represent all implementations consistent with the invention. Rather, they are merely examples of methods consistent with aspects of the invention as detailed in the accompanying claims.
In order to solve the problems of no pertinence and low efficiency in the conventional electricity theft checking process, the embodiment provides a method for measuring and calculating the contribution degree of a platform user based on information transfer entropy, and referring to fig. 1, the method comprises the following steps:
s1: collecting daily power supply quantity and sales power quantity of a station area, freezing power consumption data y of station area users at zero points every day, and performing data processing;
s2: calculating and obtaining daily loss electric quantity x of the platform area by using the daily power supply quantity and the daily sales electric quantity;
s3: constructing and obtaining a calculation sample set X, Y based on the daily loss electric quantity x of the platform area and daily zero freezing electric quantity data y of the platform area users;
wherein x= { X 1 ,x 2 ,x 3 ,...x k }，Y＝{y 1 ,y 2 ,y 3 ,...y l Each of k and l represents an actual number of days per month;
s4: calculating to obtain a transfer entropy value between the power loss of the area and the power consumption of each user by using the constructed calculation sample;
s5: and according to the calculated transfer entropy value, calculating the contribution degree of the line loss of the station user.
According to the measuring and calculating method provided by the embodiment, the contribution degree of the power consumption behavior of each user to the line loss abnormality of the transformer area is determined by calculating the information transfer entropy value of the power consumption of each user to the line loss power consumption of the transformer area; by accurately grasping the abnormal degree of the electricity consumption behavior of the user in the high-loss transformer area, the electricity stealing range of the user is reduced, the electricity stealing inspection work of the power company is facilitated, the manpower and material resources are saved, and the transformer area loss reduction and synergy are facilitated.
The measuring and calculating method provided in the embodiment comprises the following specific processes:
in step S1, the daily power supply and electricity selling quantity of the station area are collected through the power company electricity consumption information collection system and the marketing system, and the daily zero freezing electricity consumption data of the station area users are collected through the intelligent electric meter. Due to abnormal data acquisition or transmission, abnormal and missing conditions may exist in the data, obvious abnormal points in the data are removed, then the data on the missing day are recalled, and if unsuccessful, adjacent daily electricity can be used for filling.
After the data processing is completed, calculating and obtaining daily loss electric quantity x of the platform area by using a formula (1):
x＝g-s (1)
wherein g is the daily power supply quantity of the platform area, and s is the daily sales quantity of the platform area.
The transfer entropy algorithm is derived from the information entropy in the information theory and is defined as: assume that sequence X has n states X 1 (i=1, 2,..n), the probability of each state occurrence is p (x i ) X is then i The information amount of (2) is:
I(x i )＝-lnp(x i ) (2)
in order to quantify the complexity of the variable, an entropy concept is introduced, and a calculation formula for obtaining the information entropy is as follows:
the information entropy value can embody the information quantity, a concept of transfer entropy is developed on the basis, the transfer entropy can measure the transfer of information between two variables, and a calculation formula of the transfer entropy of the variable Y to the variable X is as follows:
wherein p (|·|·) is the conditional probability, x i Represents the measurement value of X at the moment i, y j Represents the measured value of Y at the moment j, x i+1 Representing the measurement of X at the next moment in the future, k and l are the implantation dimensions of X and y, respectively. The transfer entropy can be used as an index for measuring the causal relationship between two time sequences, and the transfer entropy of Y to X is essentially the change of the information of Y to the uncertainty of X, namely the size of the information quantity transferred to X by Y.
Constructing a calculated sample set by using the data processed in the step S1 and the step S2, wherein X is the loss electric quantity X= { X of the area within a period of time 1 ,x 2 ,x 3 ,...x k And Y is the electricity consumption Y= { Y of each user in the same time period under the station area 1 ,y 2 ,y 3 ,...y l }. Since in practice the utility is to determine the high loss area at the area monthly line loss rate, the time-series data acquisition time is one month, i.e. the implantation dimensions k=l=28, 29, 30 or 31 of variables X and Y (specifically determined in actual days per month). And (3) respectively calculating the transfer entropy value of the power consumption of each user to the power loss of the station area according to the transfer entropy calculation formula (4), wherein the larger the transfer entropy value is, the larger the influence of the change of the power consumption of the user to the line loss of the station area is represented, the larger the contribution degree of the user to the high-loss station area is, and the larger the possibility of the power stealing behavior of the user is represented.
When calculating the transfer entropy, the problem of probability density estimation is solved by adopting kernel density estimation, the probability density can be estimated through the historical data of the nodes, and the calculation formula is as follows:
where N is the length of the data sequence, K (x-x i ) Is x i The kernel function is a commonly used kernel function in kernel density estimation, and the formula is as follows:
wherein x is i The closer x is, the larger the value of the kernel function, θ is the estimated window width, used to adjust the number of samples of the x-sequence and the standard squareAnd (3) difference. Also, for the joint probabilities of x and y, the kernel density estimation formula is:
the gaussian kernel function is:
and calculating a transfer entropy value between the power loss of the station area and the power consumption of each user, namely, the contribution degree of the line loss of the high-loss station area user, sequencing the transfer entropy value from large to small, and taking the sequencing as the sequencing of the contribution degree of the line loss of the station area user.
The method for measuring and calculating the contribution degree of the users in the area based on the information transfer entropy can grasp key users affecting the line loss of the area, reduce the range of electricity stealing users and provide reference for the electric power company to carry out line loss inspection work.
The embodiment provides a method for measuring and calculating the contribution degree of a station user based on the information transfer entropy, which comprises the following steps:
obtaining the ranking of the contribution degree of each user line loss based on the contribution degree measuring and calculating method;
the method comprises the steps of conducting screening one by one aiming at users with 5% of line loss contribution degree, conducting special inspection and screening on large commercial users by a special investigation group, conducting criticizing education and rectification on users with electricity stealing behaviors, recording illegal behaviors of the users, conducting fine with corresponding amount by matching with police, and conducting case setting treatment on serious condition persons.
Aiming at 5% -10% of users with line loss contribution degree, as important attention users, if the contribution degree of two continuous months is within the first 10%, one-by-one investigation is carried out, wherein criticizing education and correction are carried out on the users with electricity stealing behaviors, the illegal behaviors are recorded, fine with corresponding amount is carried out on the users by matching with police, and case setting treatment is carried out on serious persons.
And aiming at other users, performing or periodically spot checking according to a patrol plan established by an electric company.
According to the electricity stealing checking method provided by the embodiment, different measures are adopted to check according to the contribution degree of the electricity consumption behaviors of all users in the high-loss area to the line loss of the area, so that the high-efficiency and differentiated management of the line loss of the area is realized.
Other embodiments of the invention will be apparent to those skilled in the art from consideration of the specification and practice of the invention disclosed herein. This application is intended to cover any variations, uses, or adaptations of the invention following, in general, the principles of the invention and including such departures from the present disclosure as come within known or customary practice within the art to which the invention pertains. It is intended that the specification and examples be considered as exemplary only, with a true scope and spirit of the invention being indicated by the following claims.
It will be understood that the invention is not limited to what has been described above and that various modifications and changes may be made without departing from the scope thereof. The scope of the invention is limited only by the appended claims.
Claims (5)
1. The method for measuring and calculating the contribution degree of the users in the area based on the information transfer entropy is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1: collecting daily power supply quantity and sales power quantity of a station area, freezing power consumption data y of station area users at zero points every day, and performing data processing;
s2: calculating and obtaining daily loss electric quantity x of the platform area by using the daily power supply quantity and the daily sales electric quantity;
s3: constructing and obtaining a calculation sample set X, Y based on the daily loss electric quantity x of the platform area and daily zero freezing electric quantity data y of the platform area users;
wherein x= { X 1 ,x 2 ,x 3 ,...x k }，Y＝{y 1 ,y 2 ,y 3 ,...y l Each of k and l represents an actual number of days per month;
s4: calculating to obtain a transfer entropy value between the power loss of the area and the power consumption of each user by using the constructed calculation sample;
s5: calculating the contribution degree of the line loss of the station user according to the calculated transfer entropy value;
in step S4, a calculation formula of the transfer entropy value between the power loss of the area and the power consumption of each user is specifically as follows:
wherein p (|·|·) is the conditional probability, x i Represents the measurement value of X at the moment i, y j Represents the measured value of Y at the moment j, x i+1 Representing the measured value of X at the next moment in the future, k and l being the implantation dimensions of X and y, respectively;
the conditional probability p (|) is calculated and obtained by a kernel density estimation method;
the calculation formula of the conditional probability p (|·|·) is as follows:
wherein,θ represents the estimated window width.
2. The method for measuring and calculating the contribution degree of a district user based on the information transfer entropy according to claim 1, wherein in step S1, the data processing specifically comprises:
eliminating obvious abnormal points in the acquired data, and then recalling the data of the missing day, if unsuccessful, filling by adopting adjacent daily electricity quantity.
3. The method for measuring and calculating the contribution degree of a user in a platform area based on the information transfer entropy according to claim 1, wherein in step S2, a formula for calculating the daily loss electric quantity x of the platform area is specifically as follows:
x=g-s, where g is the daily power supply capacity of the station area, and s is the daily sales capacity of the station area.
4. The method for measuring and calculating the contribution degree of the users in the area based on the information transfer entropy according to claim 1, wherein in step S5, the measurement and calculation of the contribution degree of the users in the area is performed according to the magnitude of the transfer entropy obtained by calculation, specifically:
and sequencing the transfer entropy values from large to small, and taking the sequencing as the sequencing of the line loss contribution degree of the station user.
5. A power theft checking method based on information transfer entropy and measuring and calculating the contribution degree of a district user is characterized by comprising the following steps:
obtaining a ranking of the line loss contribution of each user based on the contribution measuring and calculating method of any one of claims 1 to 4;
the method comprises the steps of performing one-by-one investigation aiming at users with 5% of line loss contribution degree, and performing special inspection and investigation on large commercial users by establishing a special investigation group; aiming at 5% -10% of users with the line loss contribution degree, as important attention users, if the contribution degree of two continuous months is within the first 10%, performing one-by-one investigation; and aiming at other users, performing or periodically spot checking according to a patrol plan established by an electric company.
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