CN113703071A - Multi-mode rainfall forecasting device based on frequency matching and dynamic fusion and correcting method thereof - Google Patents
Multi-mode rainfall forecasting device based on frequency matching and dynamic fusion and correcting method thereof Download PDFInfo
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- 238000012545 processing Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 14
- 238000011084 recovery Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 14
- 238000001556 precipitation Methods 0.000 claims description 38
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- 239000003721 gunpowder Substances 0.000 description 8
- 238000010891 electric arc Methods 0.000 description 5
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- 238000013079 data visualisation Methods 0.000 description 2
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- FGIUAXJPYTZDNR-UHFFFAOYSA-N potassium nitrate Chemical compound [K+].[O-][N+]([O-])=O FGIUAXJPYTZDNR-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 description 2
- 238000004064 recycling Methods 0.000 description 2
- NINIDFKCEFEMDL-UHFFFAOYSA-N Sulfur Chemical compound [S] NINIDFKCEFEMDL-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 description 1
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Abstract
The invention belongs to the technical field of meteorological forecasting, and particularly relates to a multi-mode rainfall forecasting device based on frequency matching and dynamic fusion and a correction method thereof, wherein the multi-mode rainfall forecasting device comprises a recovery device, a monitoring device and a wind control device, the recovery device is fixedly arranged at the top of the monitoring device, the monitoring device comprises an anemometer, the bottom of the anemometer is fixedly provided with a fan cover, and the wind control device is arranged at the top of the inner wall of the fan cover and is fixedly connected with the bottom of the anemometer, so that the multi-mode rainfall forecasting device has the beneficial effects that: the motor drives the monitoring device to rotate, so that the air inlet is always aligned to the wind direction, the fan blades drive the rotating shaft to rotate at a rotating speed in direct proportion to the wind speed under the action of the wind force, the wind speed numerical value is monitored in real time, the three groups of supports rotate simultaneously, the temperature values measured by the three groups of temperature sensors are conveyed to the encoder, the minimum value of the measured temperature of the three groups is taken during data processing, namely the accurate temperature value of the solar radiation factor is eliminated, and the effect of improving the temperature and the wind speed accuracy is achieved.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of weather forecast, in particular to a multi-mode rainfall forecast device based on frequency matching and dynamic fusion and a correction method thereof.
Background
The precipitation probability forecast refers to the precipitation opportunities of 0.1 mm or more in 3 periods within 36 hours in the future of each forecast area, and is independent of the precipitation time and area, wherein 1 period is every 12 hours.
For example, the forecast probability of rainfall in Taipei city is 70%, which means that there is a seven-step chance of rainfall in Taipei.
The correction of the precipitation forecast result is one of the key links for improving the precipitation forecast precision.
The prior art has the following defects: the existing rainfall forecast is determined by collecting and measuring required data through various meteorological instruments and then transmitting the data back to the ground center and the traditional rainfall and artificial experience, the most important error source in atmospheric temperature measurement is solar radiation error of a temperature sensor and wind speed errors of different altitudes, and the correction mode cannot accurately correct the existing rainfall forecast, so that errors exist in the rainfall forecast.
Therefore, it is necessary to invent a multi-mode precipitation forecast device based on frequency matching and dynamic fusion and a correction method thereof.
Disclosure of Invention
Therefore, the invention provides a multi-mode rainfall forecasting device based on frequency matching and dynamic fusion, a wind vane transmits a deflection angle to a motor through an angle sensor, the motor drives a monitoring device to rotate, an air inlet is always aligned with the wind direction, fan blades drive a rotating shaft to rotate at a rotating speed proportional to the wind speed, the monitoring device drives three groups of supports to rotate while rotating, temperature values measured by the three groups of temperature sensors are transmitted to an encoder, the minimum value of the three groups of measured temperatures is taken during data processing, namely the accurate temperature value excluding solar radiation factors, and the problem of improving the accuracy of the temperature and the wind speed is solved.
In order to achieve the above purpose, the invention provides the following technical scheme: a multi-mode precipitation forecast device based on frequency matching and dynamic fusion comprises a recovery device, a monitoring device and a wind control device, wherein the recovery device is fixedly installed at the top of the monitoring device, the monitoring device comprises an anemometer, a wind cover is fixedly installed at the bottom of the anemometer, the wind control device is arranged at the top of the inner wall of the wind cover and is fixedly connected with the bottom of the anemometer, and a protection box is fixedly installed at the top of the anemometer;
the wind control device comprises a supporting cylinder, an air inlet pipe is fixedly mounted on one side of the supporting cylinder, an air inlet is formed in one side of the outer wall of the fan cover, one end of the air inlet pipe is fixedly connected with the air inlet, a sleeve is fixedly mounted at the bottom of the supporting cylinder, one end of the air inlet pipe is connected with the inner wall of the sleeve, a base is fixedly mounted at the bottom of the sleeve, a rotating shaft is arranged on the inner wall of the sleeve, the bottom of the rotating shaft is movably connected with the base, the top of the rotating shaft is connected with the input end of an anemometer, and fan blades are fixedly mounted on the outer wall of the rotating shaft;
the fan cover is characterized in that supporting plates are arranged at the bottom of the fan cover, two groups of supporting plates are arranged and are symmetrically arranged, a support is arranged between the two groups of supporting plates, three groups of supports are arranged and splice the circumference into a whole in a trisection mode, and two ends of each support are fixedly connected with the supporting plates.
Preferably, a fan housing base is fixedly mounted at the bottom of the fan housing, a first through hole is uniformly formed in the outer wall of the fan housing base, a second through hole is uniformly formed in the outer wall of the bottom of the sleeve, the first through hole and the second through hole are mutually connected, and an electromagnetic valve is fixedly mounted on the inner wall of the air inlet pipe.
Preferably, two sets of backup pads relative position fixed mounting have the stopper, the stopper is equipped with three sets, stopper inboard and support outer wall fixed connection, fan housing base bottom and backup pad top fixed connection, the stopper inner wall is seted up flutedly, the recess inner wall is pegged graft there is the cardboard.
Preferably, protection box inner wall fixed mounting has the encoder, encoder one side fixed mounting has the transmitter, support one side is equipped with temperature sensor, temperature sensor is equipped with three groups, three groups temperature sensor installs respectively on three group's support right sides, digital baroceptor and humidity transducer are installed respectively in the support left side.
Preferably, the digital air pressure sensor, the temperature sensor, the anemometer and the humidity sensor are electrically connected with the encoder.
Preferably, a battery box is fixedly mounted at the bottom of the supporting plate, a supporting column is fixedly mounted at the bottom of the battery box, a wind vane is movably mounted on the outer wall of the supporting column, and an angle sensor is fixedly mounted at the bottom of the wind vane.
Preferably, the support ring is installed at the top of the protection box, a bearing is fixedly installed at the joint of the protection box and the support ring, a motor is fixedly installed at the top of the support ring, the output end of the motor bottom is fixedly connected with the top of the protection box, and the top of the support ring is fixedly connected with the bottom of the recovery device.
Preferably, recovery unit includes the shell, the top cap is installed at the shell top, the bracing piece is evenly installed with the top cap junction to the shell, shell inner wall fixed mounting has the elasticity leather sheath, elasticity leather sheath bottom fixed mounting has the impact block, set up to the umbrella chamber between elasticity leather sheath top and the top cap.
Preferably, the shell bottom fixed mounting has the explosive barrel, explosive barrel one side fixed mounting has arc generator, the kicking block is installed at explosive barrel top, the kicking block is connected with the impact block bottom.
A multi-mode rainfall forecast correction method based on frequency matching and dynamic fusion is characterized in that: the correction process comprises the following steps of,
s1: the device is launched to a specified height by launching a sounding rocket, the middle-lower troposphere is detected with high precision in the falling process of a sonde, the temperature, humidity, air pressure, air speed and wind direction profiles with high vertical resolution in the boundary layer can be accurately obtained by a temperature sensor, a digital air pressure sensor, a humidity sensor, a wind vane and an anemometer which are carried by the device, the profiles are converted into electric signals by an encoder, the electric signals are transmitted by a transmitter through amplitude modulation or frequency modulation, and a receiving head receives, demodulates and records the electric signals on the ground;
s2: firstly, carrying out frequency matching processing on precipitation forecast data EC, GFS and WARMS of each mode, wherein the EC, GFS, WARMS and GZ are set as south China mesoscale modes, and a basic algorithm is frequency matching and dynamic weight;
s3: three sets of data of ECFM, GFSFM and WARMSFM are obtained through frequency matching processing;
wherein the ECFM, GFSFM and WARMSFM are EC, GFS and WARMS data after frequency matching processing;
s4: combining the ECFM, the GFSFM, the WARMSFM and the latest GZ original precipitation forecast data into a fusion data set;
s5: when ECfm is larger than 30 mm, calculating a TS weight coefficient;
the TS weight is used for correcting the obvious rainfall weather, and the matching degree of the rainfall forecast of each mode in the early stage and the actual condition is calculated;
s6: when the weight coefficient sum is greater than 0, fusion correction is carried out according to the dynamic weight and the additional weight in proportion;
s7: when the weight coefficient sum is equal to 0, fusing according to a fixed weight;
wherein the fixed weight coefficient is the additional weight plus one/mode number;
s8: when the ECfm is less than or equal to 30 mm, calculating a PC weight coefficient;
the PC weight is used for correcting general weather, and for various levels of precipitation and no precipitation, on the basis of background data, other fusion data with historical weather accuracy from high to low are sequentially used for filling and emptying the background data;
s9: when the weight coefficient sum is larger than 0, fusion correction is carried out according to the dynamic weight in proportion;
s10: when the sum of the weight coefficients is equal to 0, the correction data is replaced with ECfm.
The invention has the beneficial effects that:
1. the wind vane transmits the deflection angle to the motor through the angle sensor, the motor drives the monitoring device to rotate, so that the air inlet is always aligned with the wind direction, the fan blade drives the rotating shaft to rotate at a rotating speed which is in direct proportion to the wind speed under the action of the wind force, the anemometer monitors the wind speed value in real time, the monitoring device drives the three groups of supports to rotate while rotating, one temperature sensor always faces away from the sun, the received solar radiation is isolated by the supports, the temperature values measured by the three groups of temperature sensors are transmitted to the encoder, the minimum value of the three groups of measured temperatures is taken during data processing, namely the accurate temperature value with the solar radiation factor removed, and the effect of improving the accuracy of the temperature and the wind speed is achieved;
2. the weather forecast performance characteristics of all modes are additionally set according to the weather forecast performance characteristics of all modes, for example, the weather accuracy rate after global mode frequency matching is highest, the weather accuracy rate of the original forecast of the mesoscale mode is lower, but the strong rainfall capture capacity is better, namely, the weather forecast performance characteristics are set in months of 4-10, when the monitoring value of the device is larger than 1 mm, the weather forecast performance characteristics are added and fused, otherwise, three sets of data fusion of ECFM, GFSFM and WARMSFM are selected, and only two sets of data of ECFM and GFSFM are selected and fused in months of 11-3, so that the effect of accurately correcting the rainfall forecast is achieved.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic front view of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic view of a bracket mounting structure of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic view of the sleeve mounting structure of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a schematic cross-sectional view of a wind control device according to the present invention;
FIG. 5 is a schematic view of the digital air pressure sensor mounting structure of the present invention;
FIG. 6 is a schematic view of the temperature sensor mounting structure of the present invention;
FIG. 7 is a schematic cross-sectional view of the recycling apparatus of the present invention;
FIG. 8 is a schematic view of an encoder mounting structure according to the present invention;
fig. 9 is a schematic diagram of the operation of the present invention.
In the figure: the recycling device 100, the outer shell 110, the top cover 120, the supporting rod 130, the elastic leather sheath 140, the impact block 150, the umbrella cavity 160, the gunpowder barrel 170, the arc generator 180, the top block 190, the monitoring device 200, the supporting ring 210, the motor 211, the bearing 220, the protective box 230, the transmitter 231, the encoder 232, the anemometer 240, the wind shield 241, the wind shield base 250, the first through hole 251, the supporting plate 260, the limiting block 261, the groove 262, the bracket 270, the temperature sensor 271, the digital air pressure sensor 272, the humidity sensor 273, the paper board 274, the battery box 280, the supporting column 290, the wind vane 291, the angle sensor 292, the wind control device 300, the supporting cylinder 310, the air inlet pipe 320, the air inlet 330, the electromagnetic valve 340, the sleeve 350, the second through hole 360, the base 370, the rotating shaft 380 and the fan blades 390.
Detailed Description
The preferred embodiments of the present invention will be described in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, and it will be understood that they are described herein for the purpose of illustration and explanation and not limitation.
Embodiment 1, referring to fig. 1 to 8, the multi-mode precipitation forecasting device based on frequency matching and dynamic fusion provided by the invention includes a recovery device 100, a monitoring device 200, and a wind control device 300, where the recovery device 100 is fixedly installed on the top of the monitoring device 200, the monitoring device 200 includes an anemometer 240, a wind cover 241 is fixedly installed at the bottom of the anemometer 240, the wind control device 300 is arranged on the top of the inner wall of the wind cover 241 and fixedly connected with the bottom of the anemometer 240, and a protection box 230 is fixedly installed at the top of the anemometer 240;
the wind control device 300 comprises a support cylinder 310, an air inlet pipe 320 is fixedly installed on one side of the support cylinder 310, an air inlet 330 is formed on one side of the outer wall of a fan cover 241, one end of the air inlet pipe 320 is fixedly connected with the air inlet 330, a sleeve 350 is fixedly installed at the bottom of the support cylinder 310, one end of the air inlet pipe 320 is connected with the inner wall of the sleeve 350, a base 370 is fixedly installed at the bottom of the sleeve 350, a rotating shaft 380 is arranged on the inner wall of the sleeve 350, the bottom of the rotating shaft 380 is movably connected with the base 370, the top of the rotating shaft 380 is connected with the input end of an anemometer 240, fan blades 390 are fixedly installed on the outer wall of the rotating shaft 380, the support cylinder 310 has a fixing effect on the air inlet pipe 320, the air inlet 330 has an effect of guiding flowing air into the support cylinder 310 through the air inlet pipe 320, the support cylinder 310 has an effect of guiding air into the sleeve 350, the whole sensing part of the anemometer 240 is installed and connected with the rotating shaft 380, and under the effect of wind, the fan blades 390 drive the rotating shaft 380 to rotate at a rotating speed proportional to the wind speed, having the anemometer 240 monitor the wind speed value;
the bottom of the fan housing 241 is provided with support plates 260, the support plates 260 are provided with two groups, the two groups of support plates 260 are symmetrically arranged, a support 270 is arranged between the two groups of support plates 260, the support 270 is provided with three groups, the three groups of support 270 are used for splicing the circumference into an integral structure in a trisection manner, two ends of the support 270 are fixedly connected with the support plates 260, the support plates 260 have a fixing effect on the support 270, when the monitoring device 200 rotates, the three groups of support 270 are driven to rotate, so that no matter which side of the three groups of temperature sensors 271 on the support 270 faces the sun, one temperature sensor 271 faces away from the sun, the received solar radiation is isolated by the support 270, temperature values measured by the three groups of temperature sensors 271 are transmitted to the encoder 232, and the minimum value of the three groups of measured temperatures is taken during data processing, namely the accurate temperature value excluding the solar radiation factor;
further, a fan housing base 250 is fixedly installed at the bottom of the fan housing 241, a first through hole 251 is uniformly formed in the outer wall of the fan housing base 250, a second through hole 360 is uniformly formed in the outer wall of the bottom of the sleeve 350, the first through hole 251 and the second through hole 360 are connected with each other, and an electromagnetic valve 340 is fixedly installed on the inner wall of the air inlet pipe 320;
furthermore, the two sets of support plates 260 are fixedly provided with limit blocks 261 at opposite positions, the limit blocks 261 are provided with three sets, the inner sides of the limit blocks 261 are fixedly connected with the outer wall of the bracket 270, the bottom of the fan cover base 250 is fixedly connected with the top of the support plates 260, the inner walls of the limit blocks 261 are provided with grooves 262, and the inner walls of the grooves 262 are inserted with paper boards 274, specifically, the support plates 260 have a fixing effect on the limit blocks 261 and the bracket 270, the grooves 262 have an installation effect on the paper boards 274, the paper boards 274 have a protection effect on the temperature sensors 271, the digital pressure sensors 272 and the humidity sensors 273, and the paper boards 274 have an effect of increasing the monitoring efficiency;
further, an encoder 232 is fixedly installed on the inner wall of the protection box 230, a transmitter 231 is fixedly installed on one side of the encoder 232, a temperature sensor 271 is installed on one side of the bracket 270, three sets of temperature sensors 271 are provided, the three sets of temperature sensors 271 are respectively installed on the right sides of the three sets of brackets 270, a digital air pressure sensor 272 and a humidity sensor 273 are respectively installed on the left side of the bracket 270, the digital air pressure sensor 272, the temperature sensor 271, an anemometer 240 and the humidity sensor 273 are electrically connected with the encoder 232, specifically, the encoder 232 is a device for compiling and converting signals or data into signal forms which can be used for communication, transmission and storage, the transmitter 231 is a device capable of transmitting signals according to a certain frequency, the digital air pressure sensor 272 is an instrument for measuring atmospheric pressure and has the function of accurately measuring the numerical value of the external atmospheric pressure, and the temperature sensor 271 is a sensor capable of sensing temperature and converting into an available output signal, the anemometer 240 is an instrument for measuring the air flow rate, and the humidity sensor 273 has a function of monitoring the humidity of the air;
furthermore, a battery box 280 is fixedly installed at the bottom of the supporting plate 260, a supporting column 290 is fixedly installed at the bottom of the battery box 280, a wind vane 291 is movably installed on the outer wall of the supporting column 290, an angle sensor 292 is fixedly installed at the bottom of the wind vane 291, specifically, the battery box 280 has a power supply function for the device, the supporting column 290 has an installation function for the wind vane 291, when the angle sensor 292 is connected to the wind vane 291, the angle sensor counts once when a shaft rotates for 1/16 circles, the counting is increased when the shaft rotates in one direction, the counting is decreased when the rotating direction is changed, when the angle sensor is initialized, the counting value is set to 0, the angle sensor 292 resets again through programming, the angle sensor 292 transmits an electric signal to the motor 211, the motor 211 drives the monitoring device 200 to rotate integrally, so that the air inlet 330 is always consistent with the front end of the wind vane 291, the wind vane 291 is an instrument for measuring the incoming direction of wind, the wind vane is an object with an asymmetric shape, the center of gravity is fixed on the vertical shaft, when wind blows, one end which generates large resistance to the flow of the air can rotate along the wind, and the wind direction is displayed;
further, a support ring 210 is installed on the top of the protection box 230, a bearing 220 is fixedly installed at the joint of the protection box 230 and the support ring 210, a motor 211 is fixedly installed on the top of the support ring 210, the output end of the bottom of the motor 211 is fixedly connected with the top of the protection box 230, the top of the support ring 210 is fixedly connected with the bottom of the recovery device 100, the recovery device 100 comprises a shell 110, a top cover 120 is installed on the top of the shell 110, a support rod 130 is uniformly installed at the joint of the shell 110 and the top cover 120, an elastic leather sheath 140 is fixedly installed on the inner wall of the shell 110, an impact block 150 is fixedly installed at the bottom of the elastic leather sheath 140, an umbrella cavity 160 is arranged between the top of the elastic leather sheath 140 and the top cover 120, specifically, the bearing 220 has the function of movably connecting the protection box 230 and the support ring 210, the protection box 230 is driven to rotate at the bottom of the support ring 210 by the motor 211, the motor 211 is arranged as a servo motor, and the servo motor can control the speed, the position precision is very accurate, a voltage signal can be converted into torque and a rotating speed to drive a control object, the outer shell 110 has fixing and supporting effects on the support ring 210, the support rod 130 is made of a fragile plastic rod, when the impact block 150 impacts the top cover 120, the fragile support rod 130 is convenient for the top cover 120 to fall off from the outer shell 110, the elastic leather sheath 140 is a hemispherical leather sheath made of rubber, and the umbrella cavity 160 has the effect of placing a parachute;
further, the bottom of the shell 110 is fixedly provided with a gunpowder barrel 170, one side of the gunpowder barrel 170 is fixedly provided with an electric arc generator 180, the top of the gunpowder barrel 170 is provided with a top block 190, the top block 190 is connected with the bottom of the impact block 150, gunpowder is filled in the gunpowder barrel 170 and is formed by mechanically mixing potassium nitrate, charcoal and sulfur, under the action of proper external energy, the electric arc generator 180 can rapidly and regularly burn by itself, a large amount of high-temperature gas substances are generated at the same time, the impact effect is achieved on the top block 190, the top block 190 generates thrust, the impact block 150 is pushed to strike the top cover 120, the electric arc generator 180 consists of a low-voltage electric arc line and a high-voltage high-frequency ignition line, the voltage between the electrodes is very low, the current is very high, and the electric arc generator has the effect of generating high temperature during discharging and igniting the gunpowder in the gunpowder barrel 170.
The using process of the invention is as follows: when the device is used, workers in the field need to launch the device to a specified height by launching the sounding rocket, the arc generator 180 discharges to generate high temperature in the falling process of the sounding device so as to explode the explosive barrel 170, the explosion generates shock waves so that the top block 190 pushes the impact block 150, the impact block 150 drives the parachute in the elastic leather sheath 140 to prop open the top cover 120, the parachute is opened to enable the device to fall slowly, the wind vane 291 collides with air, the deflection angle is transmitted to the motor 211 through the angle sensor 292, the motor 211 drives the monitoring device 200 to rotate integrally, the air inlet 330 is always aligned with the wind direction, under the action of wind force, the fan blades 390 drive the rotating shaft 380 to rotate at a rotating speed proportional to the wind speed, the anemometer 240 monitors the wind speed value in real time, the monitoring device 200 rotates and simultaneously drives the three groups of brackets 270 to rotate, so that a single temperature sensor 271 always faces away from the sun, the received solar radiation is isolated by the bracket 270, the temperature values measured by the three groups of temperature sensors 271 are transmitted to the encoder 232, the minimum value of the temperatures measured by the three groups of temperature sensors 271 is taken during data processing, namely the accurate temperature value excluding solar radiation factors, the digital air pressure sensor 272 and the humidity sensor 273 work, the temperature values are converted into electric signals through the encoder 232 and then transmitted by the transmitter 231 through amplitude modulation or frequency modulation, and the receiving head receives, demodulates and records the electric signals on the ground to perform high-precision detection on the middle and lower troposphere.
Example 2:
referring to the attached figure 9 of the specification, a multi-mode rainfall forecast correction method based on frequency matching and dynamic fusion is characterized in that: the correction process comprises the following steps of,
s1: the device is launched to a designated height by launching a sounding rocket, the middle and lower troposphere is detected with high precision in the falling process of a sounding device, the temperature, humidity, air pressure, wind speed and wind direction profiles with high vertical resolution in the boundary layer can be accurately obtained by a temperature sensor 271, a digital air pressure sensor 272, a humidity sensor 273, a wind vane 291 and an anemometer 240 which are carried by the device, the profiles are converted into electric signals by an encoder 232 and then are sent by a transmitter 231 through amplitude modulation or frequency modulation, a receiving head receives, demodulates and records on the ground,
s2: firstly, carrying out frequency matching processing on precipitation forecast data EC, GFS and WARMS of each mode, wherein the EC, GFS, WARMS and GZ are set as south China mesoscale modes, and a basic algorithm is frequency matching and dynamic weight;
s3: three sets of data of ECFM, GFSFM and WARMSFM are obtained through frequency matching processing;
wherein the ECFM, GFSFM and WARMSFM are EC, GFS and WARMS data after frequency matching processing;
s4: combining the ECFM, the GFSFM, the WARMSFM and the latest GZ original precipitation forecast data into a fusion data set;
s5: when ECfm is larger than 30 mm, calculating a TS weight coefficient;
the TS weight is used for correcting the obvious rainfall weather, and the matching degree of the rainfall forecast of each mode in the early stage and the actual condition is calculated;
s6: when the weight coefficient sum is greater than 0, fusion correction is carried out according to the dynamic weight and the additional weight in proportion;
s7: when the weight coefficient sum is equal to 0, fusing according to a fixed weight;
wherein the fixed weight coefficient is the additional weight plus one/mode number;
s8: when the ECfm is less than or equal to 30 mm, calculating a PC weight coefficient;
the PC weight is used for correcting general weather, and for various levels of precipitation and no precipitation, on the basis of background data, other fusion data with historical weather accuracy from high to low are sequentially used for filling and emptying the background data;
s9: when the weight coefficient sum is larger than 0, fusion correction is carried out according to the dynamic weight in proportion;
s10: when the sum of the weight coefficients is equal to 0, the correction data is replaced with ECfm.
Furthermore, in the PC weight coefficient fusion part, some extra settings are made according to the weather and heavy rainfall forecast performance characteristics of each mode, for example, the weather accuracy is highest after the global mode frequency is matched, the weather accuracy of the original forecast in the mesoscale mode is lower, but the heavy rainfall capture capability is better, namely, the setting is 4-10 months, when the GZ forecast is more than 1 mm, the GZ is added and fused, otherwise, three sets of data of ECFM, GFSFM and WARMSFM are selected for fusion, and only two sets of data of ECFM and GFSFM are selected for fusion in 11-3 months, so that the effect of accurately correcting the rainfall forecast is achieved, the GZ is set as the original rainfall forecast data obtained after the real-time monitoring of the device, the EC utilizes javaScript technology to design a European fine grid data weather big data visualization system, which is a big data visualization system of each main weather element taking EC mode data issued by the China weather bureau as a data source, GFS is a global forecasting system with data sources from the national environmental forecasting center of America, and the system issues meteorological data in a global range for 4 times every day, and the resolution can reach 0.25 degrees x0.25 degrees at most;
further, two sets of dynamic weight coefficients of PC weight and TS weight are used, the former is used for correcting general weather, for various levels of precipitation and no precipitation, on the basis of background data, other fusion data with historical weather accuracy from high to low are used for filling and emptying the background data in sequence, the latter is used for correcting obvious precipitation weather, the matching degree of precipitation forecast of each mode in each level in the early stage and the live condition is calculated, when the forecast and the live condition are in the same precipitation level range, the coefficient is added by 1, then fusion is distributed according to the proportion of the total coefficient, the distinction of the general weather and the obvious precipitation weather is determined by the background data, when the forecast amount of the background data is more than a certain value, the obvious precipitation weather is determined, the TS weight coefficient is used, the other situations are general, the PC weight coefficient is used, in addition, the coefficient deviation exists in consideration of the mode forecast, in the weather with obvious precipitation, a fixed weight is artificially added on the basis of the dynamic weight, so that the accuracy of precipitation forecast is improved.
The working process of the invention is as follows: when the device is used, workers in the field need to launch the device to a specified height by launching the sounding rocket, detect the middle and lower troposphere with high precision in the falling process of the sonde, obtain the temperature, humidity, air pressure, wind speed and wind direction profiles with high vertical resolution in the boundary layer, convert the profiles into electric signals through the encoder, send the electric signals through the transmitter through amplitude modulation or frequency modulation, receive, demodulate and record the electric signals through the receiving head on the ground, move the latest data GZ, and finally select four sets of data of ECFM, GFSFM, WARMSFM and GZ for fusion through scientific calculation and multiple tests, take the ECFM with the highest historical weather score as background data, determine the distinguishing standard of obvious rainfall as that the background data forecast is more than 30 mm, and add the weight of 0.5, thereby accurately correcting the rainfall forecast.
Although the invention has been described in detail above with reference to a general description and specific examples, it will be apparent to one skilled in the art that modifications or improvements may be made thereto based on the invention. Accordingly, such modifications and improvements are intended to be within the scope of the invention as claimed.
Claims (10)
1. A multi-mode precipitation forecast equipment based on frequency matching and dynamic fusion comprises a recovery device (100), a monitoring device (200) and a wind control device (300), and is characterized in that: the recovery device (100) is fixedly installed at the top of the monitoring device (200), the monitoring device (200) comprises an anemometer (240), a fan cover (241) is fixedly installed at the bottom of the anemometer (240), the wind control device (300) is arranged at the top of the inner wall of the fan cover (241) and fixedly connected with the bottom of the anemometer (240), and a protection box (230) is fixedly installed at the top of the anemometer (240);
the wind control device (300) comprises a supporting cylinder (310), an air inlet pipe (320) is fixedly mounted on one side of the supporting cylinder (310), an air inlet (330) is formed in one side of the outer wall of the fan cover (241), one end of the air inlet pipe (320) is fixedly connected with the air inlet (330), a sleeve (350) is fixedly mounted at the bottom of the supporting cylinder (310), one end of the air inlet pipe (320) is connected with the inner wall of the sleeve (350), a base (370) is fixedly mounted at the bottom of the sleeve (350), a rotating shaft (380) is arranged on the inner wall of the sleeve (350), the bottom of the rotating shaft (380) is movably connected with the base (370), the top of the rotating shaft (380) is connected with the input end of the anemometer (240), and fan blades (390) are fixedly mounted on the outer wall of the rotating shaft (380);
the utility model discloses a fan cover, including fan housing (241), fan housing (241) bottom is equipped with backup pad (260), backup pad (260) are equipped with two sets ofly, two sets of backup pad (260) symmetry sets up, and is two sets of be equipped with support (270) between backup pad (260), support (270) are equipped with three groups, three groups support (270) splice circumference trisection as an organic whole structure, support (270) both ends and backup pad (260) fixed connection.
2. The multi-modal precipitation forecast device based on frequency matching and dynamic fusion of claim 1, wherein: the fan housing (241) bottom fixed mounting has fan housing base (250), through-hole one (251) have evenly been seted up to fan housing base (250) outer wall, through-hole two (360) have evenly been seted up to sleeve (350) bottom outer wall, through-hole one (251) and through-hole two (360) interconnect, air-supply line (320) inner wall fixed mounting has solenoid valve (340).
3. The multi-modal precipitation forecast device based on frequency matching and dynamic fusion of claim 1, wherein: two sets of backup pad (260) relative position fixed mounting has stopper (261), stopper (261) are equipped with three groups, stopper (261) inboard and support (270) outer wall fixed connection, fan housing base (250) bottom and backup pad (260) top fixed connection, stopper (261) inner wall is seted up flutedly (262), it has cardboard (274) to peg graft in recess (262) inner wall.
4. The multi-modal precipitation forecast device based on frequency matching and dynamic fusion of claim 1, wherein: protection box (230) inner wall fixed mounting has encoder (232), encoder (232) one side fixed mounting has transmitter (231), support (270) one side is equipped with temperature sensor (271), temperature sensor (271) are equipped with three groups, three groups temperature sensor (271) are installed respectively on three groups of support (270) right sides, digital baroceptor (272) and humidity transducer (273) are installed respectively in support (270) left side.
5. The multi-modal precipitation forecasting device based on frequency matching and dynamic fusion of claim 4, wherein: the digital air pressure sensor (272), the temperature sensor (271), the anemometer (240), the humidity sensor (273) and the encoder (232) are electrically connected.
6. The multi-modal precipitation forecast device based on frequency matching and dynamic fusion of claim 1, wherein: the utility model discloses a wind vane, including backup pad (260), backup pad (260) bottom fixed mounting have battery case (280), battery case (280) bottom fixed mounting has support column (290), support column (290) outer wall movable mounting has wind vane (291), wind vane (291) bottom fixed mounting has angle sensor (292).
7. The multi-modal precipitation forecast device based on frequency matching and dynamic fusion of claim 1, wherein: support ring (210) is installed at protection box (230) top, protection box (230) and support ring (210) junction fixed mounting has bearing (220), support ring (210) top fixed mounting has motor (211), motor (211) bottom output and protection box (230) top fixed connection, support ring (210) top and recovery unit (100) bottom fixed connection.
8. The multi-modal precipitation forecast device based on frequency matching and dynamic fusion of claim 1, wherein: recovery unit (100) include shell (110), top cap (120) are installed at shell (110) top, bracing piece (130) are evenly installed to shell (110) and top cap (120) junction, shell (110) inner wall fixed mounting has elasticity leather sheath (140), elasticity leather sheath (140) bottom fixed mounting has impact piece (150), set up to umbrella chamber (160) between elasticity leather sheath (140) top and top cap (120).
9. The multi-modal precipitation forecasting device based on frequency matching and dynamic fusion of claim 8, wherein: the utility model discloses a fire explosive charging device, including shell (110), fire explosive barrel (170) is fixed mounting in shell (110) bottom, fire explosive barrel (170) one side fixed mounting has arc generator (180), kicking block (190) are installed at fire explosive barrel (170) top, kicking block (190) are connected bottom impact piece (150).
10. A multi-mode rainfall forecast correction method based on frequency matching and dynamic fusion is characterized in that: the correction process comprises the following steps of,
s1: the device is launched to a specified height by launching a sounding rocket, the middle-lower troposphere is detected with high precision in the falling process of a sounding device, the temperature, humidity, air pressure, air speed and wind direction profiles with high vertical resolution in the boundary layer can be accurately obtained by a temperature sensor (271), a digital air pressure sensor (272), a humidity sensor (273), a wind vane (291) and an anemoscope (240) which are carried by the device, the profiles are converted into electric signals by an encoder (232), the electric signals are transmitted by a transmitter (231) through amplitude modulation or frequency modulation, and a receiving head receives, demodulates and records on the ground;
s2: firstly, carrying out frequency matching processing on precipitation forecast data EC, GFS and WARMS of each mode, wherein the EC, GFS, WARMS and GZ are set as south China mesoscale modes, and a basic algorithm is frequency matching and dynamic weight;
s3: three sets of data of ECFM, GFSFM and WARMSFM are obtained through frequency matching processing;
wherein the ECFM, GFSFM and WARMSFM are EC, GFS and WARMS data after frequency matching processing;
s4: combining the ECFM, the GFSFM, the WARMSFM and the latest GZ original precipitation forecast data into a fusion data set;
s5: when ECfm is larger than 30 mm, calculating a TS weight coefficient;
the TS weight is used for correcting the obvious rainfall weather, and the matching degree of the rainfall forecast of each mode in the early stage and the actual condition is calculated;
s6: when the weight coefficient sum is greater than 0, fusion correction is carried out according to the dynamic weight and the additional weight in proportion;
s7: when the weight coefficient sum is equal to 0, fusing according to a fixed weight;
wherein the fixed weight coefficient is the additional weight plus one/mode number;
s8: when the ECfm is less than or equal to 30 mm, calculating a PC weight coefficient;
the PC weight is used for correcting general weather, and for various levels of precipitation and no precipitation, on the basis of background data, other fusion data with historical weather accuracy from high to low are sequentially used for filling and emptying the background data;
s9: when the weight coefficient sum is larger than 0, fusion correction is carried out according to the dynamic weight in proportion;
s10: when the sum of the weight coefficients is equal to 0, the correction data is replaced with ECfm.
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