CN112200344A - Method for predicting oil reservoir limit value based on multi-parameter fusion transfer - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for predicting an oil reservoir limit value based on multi-parameter fusion transfer. And integrating all indexes according to the idea of a system reasonable value, thereby forming a systematic correlation index and ensuring the integrity on the basis of improving the prediction precision. Meanwhile, aiming at the predicted values of different development indexes, the idea of standard deviation multiple and difference value average is pertinently provided, the upper limit and the lower limit of each index are defined, and the limit range of each index is determined. Compared with the conventional method for calculating the reasonable value of the oil reservoir index, the novel method not only correlates and transmits the parameter index, but also improves the parameters of the traditional method, greatly improves the applicability of the method, and finally obtains the reasonable value of each index in oil reservoir development.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of oil reservoir development, and particularly relates to a method for predicting an oil reservoir limit value based on multi-parameter fusion transfer.
Background
Through a large amount of research, the limit value problem of the oil reservoir development index is researched at home and abroad at present, and a plurality of calculation methods for different indexes are provided, wherein the method for determining the reasonable injection-production ratio of the oil reservoir mainly comprises the following steps: a mine field statistical method, a substance balance method, an injection-production ratio and water-oil ratio method, a gas-oil ratio and injection-production ratio method, an injection-production ratio method considering a reasonable flowing pressure limit, a reasonable oil production speed and a reasonable water content, an injection-production ratio and stratum pressure method under different well network conditions, a multiple regression method and a BP neural network method are 8 methods.
The method for determining the reasonable water content and the reasonable injection-production ratio mainly comprises a logistic model method, a water drive curve method and a stage water storage rate chart method. The logistic model method is mainly suitable for oil fields with the yield decreasing when the accumulated yield reaches 50 percent of the recoverable reserves, otherwise, the precision is higher only in the decreasing stage; the water flooding curve method is mainly used for the condition that the production rule of the oil field conforms to the water flooding curve, and the stage water storage rate chart method is more suitable for the production condition that the change rule of the water storage rate is obvious.
In the aspect of reasonable stratum pressure level, the existing domestic and foreign researches are few, and the minimum flowing pressure method, the stratum crude oil loss function method, the material balance method and the like are mainly adopted at present. The formation crude oil loss coefficient method is more practical for dissolved gas flooding reservoirs with lower crude oil viscosity, and the material balance method is only limited to theoretical discussion at present.
In the aspect of considering multiple reservoir parameters, the influence of injection-production well ratio, injection-production ratio, liquid production amount, formation pressure and comprehensive water content is comprehensively researched by Qianfu, Invitrogen and the like, and independent variables and state variables, namely variables changing along with time control variables, are introduced. After the objective function and the constraint condition are established, the model is optimized and solved. The injection-production well ratio and the injection-production ratio at the moment are reasonable injection-production well ratio and injection-production ratio. In Yuanying, Zanxinghui and the like, an injection-production ratio prediction model based on a multiple linear regression analysis method is established and corresponding test standards are provided according to the relation among the injection-production ratio, the liquid production amount, the water content, the formation pressure, the accumulated injection-production ratio and the accumulated liquid production amount, but a set of method for systematically predicting the early warning value of the oil reservoir development index is not established.
In conclusion, the calculation of various indexes is targeted at present, the calculation method of each index gradually tends to be perfect, but systematic research on the whole oil reservoir development index is not reported yet.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the problem of determining the reasonable value of the existing oil reservoir development index and carry out comprehensive systematic analysis on each index parameter, the invention provides a method for predicting the oil reservoir limit value based on multi-parameter fusion transmission, which fully considers the transmission among internal parameters and realizes the system rationality.
The technical scheme for solving the technical problems is as follows:
a method for predicting an oil reservoir limit value based on multi-parameter fusion transfer comprises the following steps:
step 1) predicting the oil deposit output based on the reasonable oil extraction speed.
And 2) fitting a reasonable water content curve and predicting the water content increase rate.
And 3) predicting the reasonable injection-production ratio of the block.
And 4) predicting reasonable formation pressure based on material balance and natural decrement rate.
And 5) predicting the reasonable pressure difference of the block.
And 6) predicting the block pressure recovery speed.
And 7) calculating the comprehensive block decrement rate.
And 8) predicting the reasonable extraction degree of the block based on the correction child-type chart.
Step 1) predicting the oil deposit yield based on reasonable oil extraction speed: and (3) establishing a calculation equation of the oil production and the time by fitting the historical oil production and based on a practical Weibull prediction model. According to the definition of a practical Weibull model, the time parameter is fitted by segmenting historical data
And determining parameters alpha and beta, and repartitioning the time parameters according to the water injection development production data to determine the use range of the time parameters. On the basis, a conventional prediction block reasonable oil extraction speed model is finally formed according to the dynamic data of actual block water injection development production, and the prediction of block yield is realized. Meanwhile, under the condition of high fitting degree, on the basis of predicting a reasonable value at the next moment, calculating a difference value average value, namely calculating the deviation degree of the difference value between a predicted value and an actual value to be used as the upper and lower ranges of the limit value.
Step 2) fitting a reasonable water content curve and predicting the water content rising rate: establishing a relation between water injection quantity and accumulated oil production through water injection development of an oil field, defining water content according to Darcy's law, taking a ratio relation between water saturation and relative permeability as an intermediate connection parameter, and finally establishing a relation equation between the accumulated oil production and the water content. Fitting equation parameters lambda and delta based on the water injection development production data and the oil production quantity of the block predicted by the step 1) by the sectional fitting, and predicting the water content and the water content increase rate of the block at the next moment. And introducing a concept of standard deviation multiple, namely calculating a standard deviation difference value with the historical water content at the current moment on the basis of predicting the water content at the time point, and simultaneously calculating a standard deviation coefficient so as to reflect the degree of deviation from the previous moment. On the basis of higher fitting effect, the upper and lower limits of the water content are defined through the standard deviation degree of a calculator, and the limit value range is determined.
Step 3), predicting the reasonable injection-production ratio of the block: and establishing a mathematical model of the comprehensive water content, the accumulated water consumption and the accumulated water-oil ratio of the oil reservoir based on the Logistic cycle model, and finally determining a relation equation of the accumulated water and the water content and the accumulated oil production. According to historical water injection development data, the development characteristics of the water injection development data are analyzed, linear fitting is carried out on the water content-water consumption ratio and the water content-water-oil ratio according to different development measures and time, the value range of fitting parameters under different conditions is given, and the applicability is guaranteed. Determining reasonable water injection quantity charts required under fixed oil production quantity in different water-containing periods on the basis, establishing a relation model of reasonable injection-production ratio and water content according to the reasonable water injection quantity, and predicting the reasonable injection-production ratio of the oil reservoir under different water content according to the water content result in the step 2). And (3) according to the oil yield result in the step 1), the block injection and production liquid amount can be further predicted by combining the water content, and the water injection amount is further predicted. According to the method for acquiring the maximum limit water injection amount, 1.2 times of the pump frequency is generally taken as the maximum limit injection amount and taken as an upper limit value, and a limit range is determined.
Step 4) reasonably calculating the layer pressure in a block: the natural reduction rate of the oil field can be reduced to the lowest by reasonable formation pressure, and the natural reduction rate of the oil field can be increased by over-high or over-low formation pressure; therefore, the pressure value corresponding to the minimum natural decreasing rate on the relation curve of the formation pressure and the natural decreasing rate of the oil field is the reasonable formation pressure value; secondly, according to a material balance method, by establishing the relation between injection and production and formation pressure, when the pressure is changed, a curve inflection point is used as reasonable formation pressure; finally determining the average reasonable formation pressure and pressure level through the calculation of the two methods; wherein 80% of the hydrostatic column pressure is used as a threshold for a reasonable pressure maintenance level.
Step 5) block reasonable pressure difference prediction: and calculating the relation between theoretical liquid production or oil extraction index and water content according to the block phase permeability curve, determining the reasonable liquid production index developed at the moment, establishing a stratum pressure difference and non-oil extraction index chart according to pressure measurement data, and determining the reasonable production pressure difference of the block.
The technical route of the step 6) is as follows: according to a material balance method, the influence of natural water invasion on the injection and production amount is considered, and an equation is established. And (3) determining the pressure recovery speed of the oil reservoir according to the water cut value determined in the step (2), wherein the pressure recovery speed is mainly related to the injection and production liquid amount, oil-water high-pressure physical property parameters and the pressure maintenance level.
Step 7), calculating the comprehensive block decrement rate: and (3) calculating the block comprehensive reduction rate according to the conventional oil reservoir engineering method on the basis of the oil production in the step 1). And calculating the index upper limit according to the difference average value in the step 1).
The technical route of the step 8) is as follows: correcting parameters of the child-type plate under different recovery ratios, establishing child-type corrected plates of the extraction degrees under different water contents, predicting the extraction degree of the block according to the step 4), establishing a prediction plate, and predicting the extraction degree under different water contents.
On the basis of the technical scheme, the invention can be further improved as follows.
Further, step 1 is to fit the time parameter by segmentation to the historical data
The general reference value range is the initial stage of production
Shut-in or periods of high water content
After taking measures such as acidification, water blocking, layer opening and the like,
well for opening new
And values under different development measures and development time are determined by further fitting the time parameters in detail, so that the fitting effect is improved on one hand, and on the other hand, when a reasonable value and a limit value are defined in the following process, reasonable oil production speed can be accurately obtained by matching with actual production data, and further reasonable oil production quantity is obtained.
Further, step 3 is based on the Logistic cycle model, a mathematical model of the comprehensive water content, the accumulated water consumption and the accumulated water-oil ratio of the oil reservoir is established, and finally a relation equation of the accumulated water and the water content and the accumulated oil is determined. For the water content-water consumption ratio, the parameter range lnA of each section is 0.2-0.4, B is 0.3-0.8, the water content-water-oil ratio, the parameter range lnA of each section is 0.8-1.1, B is 0.3-0.8, and the reasonable water injection quantity chart required under the fixed oil production quantity of different water-containing periods is determined according to the fitting parameters. And meanwhile, establishing a relation model of the reasonable injection-production ratio and the water content according to the reasonable water injection amount, and predicting the reasonable injection-production ratio of the oil reservoir under different water contents according to the water content result in the step 2). And (3) according to the oil yield result in the step 1), the block injection and production liquid amount can be further predicted by combining the water content, and the water injection amount is further predicted.
Further, step 5, calculating the relation between theoretical liquid production or oil extraction index and water content according to the block phase permeability curve, determining the reasonable liquid production index developed at the moment, establishing a map of the stratum pressure difference and the index without the liquid production under the condition of sufficient pressure measurement data, and determining the reasonable production pressure difference of the block.
Furthermore, aiming at the oil extraction speed, the water content rising rate, the injection quantity, the extraction degree and the reasonable formation pressure in the steps, under the condition of calculating the injection and extraction quantity and other main indexes, the parameters are all used as intermediate parameters to participate in calculation, and after the limit range of the intermediate parameters is defined, the limit values of other various oil reservoir indexes are also determined. The upper limit and the lower limit are divided according to the standard deviation multiple and the difference average introduced by the invention.
The invention has the beneficial effects that:
the technical scheme discloses a method for predicting the reasonable value of an oil reservoir based on multi-parameter fusion transmission. Compared with the existing oil reservoir index fitting method, the new method has the advantages that the fitting effect of each parameter reaches more than 85%, and the calculation precision and accuracy of the method are further explained to be higher.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a fitting graph of predicted monthly oil production and cumulative oil production effects in an embodiment of the invention.
FIG. 2 is a water cut effect fitting graph in an embodiment of the present invention.
FIG. 3 is a graph of a water cut effect fit.
FIG. 4 is a fitting graph of the effect of the overall reduction rate in the embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 5 shows the pressure recovery speed and the pressure recovery time in the embodiment of the present invention.
FIG. 6 is a chart illustrating the prediction of the extraction degree for different water cut in the embodiment of the present invention.
FIG. 7 is a diagram of correcting the extraction degree and water content predicted by the child-style diagram method according to the embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 8 is a threshold value chart of a reasonable oil recovery rate in an embodiment of the invention.
FIG. 9 is a graphical illustration of a monthly inject threshold in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention.
FIG. 10 is a graphical representation of the threshold value for reasonable water cut rise in an embodiment of the invention.
FIG. 11 is a graphical illustration of a composite decrement rate threshold in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention.
For a person skilled in the art, other relevant figures can be obtained from the above figures without inventive effort.
Detailed Description
In order to make the technical solution of the present invention better understood, the technical solution of the present invention is further described below with reference to specific examples.
Example 1: b oil field reasonable parameter prediction
The oil field B of the oil field has a large range of work areas, a longitudinal layer is spread widely, the influence of bottom water is involved in the whole work area range, the well pattern is not deployed completely, and more horizontal injection wells and extraction wells are arranged. Through the improvement method, the development index rationality of the work area is researched.
By analyzing the production data of water injection development, part of indexes in the development process of a target oil field are considered to lack rationality research, and the block production allocation and injection allocation does not achieve the maximum oil displacement effect. Based on the historical production data for the B field,
through the process and the method in the step 1, the time parameter is fitted according to the historical data, the reasonable oil extraction speed at each moment is finally obtained, and the oil production at each moment is further predicted. The results are shown in fig. 1, and the fitting degree of actual values and predicted values of monthly oil production and cumulative oil production is high. And (3) based on the result of the step 1, giving a limit value of the oil recovery speed according to the deviation degree through the difference between the predicted value and the actual value. The result is shown in fig. 7, which shows that the oil recovery speed fitting degree is about 90%, and the upper and lower parameter limit values basically accord with the integral development condition of the oil field.
According to the method of the step 2 and the step 3, as the adjustment of measures is carried out for a plurality of times in the block development process, on the basis of the step 1, the segmentation fitting is respectively carried out, so that the water content change rule under different injection-production ratios is obtained, and parameters such as the injection-production ratio and the reasonable water content are obtained. The results of the water content and the water content increase rate are shown in fig. 2 and fig. 3, and the results show that the fitting degree of each index predicted value and the actual value is higher and reaches more than 85 percent by the method; on the basis of the above, the concept of multiple of standard deviation is introduced in the section 3, and the water content increase rate limit are defined, and the results are shown in fig. 8 and fig. 10.
The water injection and production liquid amount of the block can be further predicted by combining the water content, and the water injection amount is further predicted. According to the method for obtaining the maximum limit injection amount, 1.2 times of the average pump frequency is generally taken as the maximum limit injection amount and used as the upper limit value, and the limit range is determined. The results are shown in fig. 9, which shows that the water injection fitting degree exceeds 85%, further illustrating the applicability and accuracy of the method.
According to the calculation method in step 4, a reasonable pressure level can be obtained by using three given methods for obtaining average ground pressure, and on the basis of the data obtained in step 1234, reasonable values of reasonable pressure difference, extraction degree, decrement rate and the like at various times can be obtained in sequence according to various processes and methods. The results are shown in fig. 4 and fig. 11, which are the degree of fit of the overall reduction ratio and the limit value division, respectively. From the fitting effect of each parameter, the fitting degree exceeds 85%, on one hand, the applicability and the accuracy of the method are explained, and on the other hand, the method can be directly applied to the calculation of other associated indexes.
According to the calculation flow and method in the step 6, the calculation results are comprehensively summarized, and as shown in the result in fig. 5, the pressure recovery speeds at different development moments are calculated according to a material balance method, so that the pressure recovery time is obtained.
Correcting parameters of the child-type plate under different recovery ratios according to the calculation process and the method in the step 8, establishing the child-type corrected plate with the extraction degrees under different water contents, predicting the extraction degree of the block according to the prediction degree in the step 3), establishing a prediction plate, and predicting the extraction degrees under different water contents. The result is shown in fig. 6, and it can be seen from the figure that the fitting degree of the predicted relationship and the actual relationship is still higher, and the extraction degree at the next moment can be predicted according to the actual oil field production condition by combining the corrected Tong's chart.
The new method for solving the each-directional index through the improved systematicness has the following calculation results: the predicted monthly liquid yield is 34.47 ten thousand square, the monthly oil yield is 9.38 ten thousand square, the reasonable formation pressure is 10.25MPa, the reasonable pressure maintaining level is 85 percent, and compared with the original method: the fitting degree of each index reaches more than 85 percent.
The invention has been described in an illustrative manner, and it is to be understood that any simple variations, modifications or other equivalent changes which can be made by one skilled in the art without departing from the spirit of the invention fall within the scope of the invention.
Claims (8)
1. A method for predicting oil reservoir limit values based on multi-parameter fusion transfer is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step 1) predicting the oil reservoir yield based on a reasonable oil extraction speed;
step 2) fitting a reasonable water content curve and predicting the water content rise rate;
step 3) predicting a reasonable injection-production ratio of the block;
step 4) predicting reasonable formation pressure based on material balance and natural decrement rate;
step 5), predicting the reasonable pressure difference of the block;
step 6), predicting the block pressure recovery speed;
step 7), calculating the comprehensive block decrement rate;
and 8) predicting the reasonable extraction degree of the block based on the correction child-type chart.
2. The method for predicting the reservoir limit value based on the multi-parameter fusion transfer as claimed in claim 1, wherein the technical route of the step 1) is as follows: by fitting historical oil production, introducing a model conversion constant C, namely the oil field recoverable reserve, based on a practical Weibull prediction model, and establishing a calculation equation of the oil production and time; because the development age and the block oil production have an exponential relationship, the time parameter is fitted by segments to the historical data
Determining parameters alpha and beta; on the basis, developing and producing dynamic data according to water injection of an actual block, and finally forming a conventional prediction block reasonable oil extraction speed model; determining parameters a and b according to a linear regression equation to realize the prediction of block yield; and giving a threshold value of the oil extraction speed according to the deviation degree by the difference between the predicted value and the actual value.
3. The method for predicting the reservoir limit value based on the multi-parameter fusion transfer as claimed in claim 1, wherein the technical route of the step 2) is as follows: establishing a water injection quantity and accumulated oil production equation through a water injection development oil field injection-production relation, defining the water content according to the Darcy's law, taking a ratio relation of water saturation and relative permeability as a middle connection parameter, and finally establishing a linear relation equation of logarithm of the accumulated oil production and the water content; in the whole oil field development process, measures are continuously adjusted, and the equation parameters lambda and delta are fitted by adopting the idea of piecewise fitting; predicting the water content and the water content increase rate of the block at the next moment on the basis of predicting the oil yield of the block according to the step 1); introducing a concept of standard deviation multiple, namely calculating a standard deviation difference value with the historical water content at the current moment on the basis of predicting the water content at the time point, and simultaneously calculating a standard deviation coefficient so as to reflect the degree of deviation from the previous moment; on the basis, the prediction difference is subjected to homogenization treatment, and the upper and lower values of the parameter are established as a limit range.
4. The method for predicting the reservoir limit value based on the multi-parameter fusion transfer as claimed in claim 1, wherein the technical route of the step 3) is as follows: establishing a mathematical model of comprehensive water content, accumulated water consumption and accumulated water-oil ratio of the oil reservoir based on a Logistic cycle model, and solving a quantitative relation between annual oil yield and reasonable water injection amount under the conditions of different water contents; aiming at the difference of the extreme water contents of different oil reservoirs, establishing a mathematical model of the extreme water contents, the accumulated water consumption and the accumulated water-oil ratio; meanwhile, according to the relation between the reasonable water content and the water-oil ratio, a relation equation of accumulated water, the water content and the accumulated produced oil is finally determined; according to actual production data of each well area, linear fitting is carried out on the water content-water consumption ratio and the water content-water-oil ratio, and reasonable water injection quantity charts required under different water-containing period fixed oil production quantities are determined according to fitting parameters; meanwhile, according to the reasonable water injection amount, a relation model of the reasonable injection-production ratio and the water content is established, and according to the water content result in the step 2), the reasonable injection-production ratio of the oil reservoir under different water contents is predicted; according to the oil yield result in the step 1), the block injection and production liquid amount can be further predicted by combining the water content, and the water injection amount is further predicted; according to the method for acquiring the maximum limit water injection amount, 1.2 times of the pump frequency is generally taken as the maximum limit injection amount and taken as an upper limit value, and a limit range is determined.
5. The method for predicting the reservoir limit value based on the multi-parameter fusion transfer as claimed in claim 2, wherein the technical route of the step 4) is as follows:
the natural reduction rate of the oil field can be reduced to the lowest by reasonable formation pressure, and the natural reduction rate of the oil field can be increased by over-high or over-low formation pressure; therefore, the pressure value corresponding to the minimum natural decreasing rate on the relation curve of the formation pressure and the natural decreasing rate of the oil field is the reasonable formation pressure value;
secondly, according to a material balance method, by establishing the relation between injection and production and formation pressure, when the pressure is changed, a curve inflection point is used as reasonable formation pressure;
finally determining the average reasonable formation pressure and pressure level through the calculation of the two methods; wherein 80% of the hydrostatic column pressure is used as a threshold for a reasonable pressure maintenance level.
6. The method for predicting the reservoir limit value based on the multi-parameter fusion transfer as claimed in claim 2, wherein the technical route of the step 5) is as follows: and calculating the relation between theoretical liquid production or oil extraction index and water content according to the block phase permeability curve, determining the reasonable liquid production index developed at the moment, establishing a stratum pressure difference and non-oil extraction index chart according to pressure measurement data, and determining the reasonable production pressure difference of the block.
7. The method for predicting the reservoir limit value based on the multi-parameter fusion transfer as claimed in claim 4, wherein the technical route of the step 6) is as follows: according to a material balance method, reasonable water content is calculated in the step 2), a reasonable injection-production ratio is calculated in the step 3), the pressure recovery speed of the oil reservoir is determined together, the pressure recovery speed is mainly related to injection-production liquid quantity, oil-water high-pressure physical property parameters and pressure maintenance level, and the pressure recovery time is determined under the condition that reasonable average formation pressure is calculated in the step 4).
8. The method for predicting the reservoir limit value based on the multi-parameter fusion transfer as claimed in claim 4, wherein the technical route of the step 8) is as follows: correcting parameters of the child-type plate under different recovery ratios, establishing child-type corrected plates of the extraction degrees under different water contents, predicting the extraction degree of the block according to the step 3), establishing a prediction plate, and predicting the extraction degree under different water contents.
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