CN112084460B - Method for predicting and evaluating marine shipping meteorological marine risk index - Google Patents

Method for predicting and evaluating marine shipping meteorological marine risk index Download PDF

Info

Publication number
CN112084460B
CN112084460B CN202010673899.9A CN202010673899A CN112084460B CN 112084460 B CN112084460 B CN 112084460B CN 202010673899 A CN202010673899 A CN 202010673899A CN 112084460 B CN112084460 B CN 112084460B
Authority
CN
China
Prior art keywords
meteorological
risk index
current
equal
less
Prior art date
Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
Active
Application number
CN202010673899.9A
Other languages
Chinese (zh)
Other versions
CN112084460A (en
Inventor
丁烨毅
姚日升
涂小萍
黄鹤楼
岑炬辉
Current Assignee (The listed assignees may be inaccurate. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the list.)
Ning Boshiqixiangtai
Ningbo Ecological Environment Meteorological Center
Original Assignee
Ning Boshiqixiangtai
Ningbo Ecological Environment Meteorological Center
Priority date (The priority date is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the date listed.)
Filing date
Publication date
Application filed by Ning Boshiqixiangtai, Ningbo Ecological Environment Meteorological Center filed Critical Ning Boshiqixiangtai
Priority to CN202010673899.9A priority Critical patent/CN112084460B/en
Publication of CN112084460A publication Critical patent/CN112084460A/en
Application granted granted Critical
Publication of CN112084460B publication Critical patent/CN112084460B/en
Active legal-status Critical Current
Anticipated expiration legal-status Critical

Links

Classifications

    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06F—ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
    • G06F17/00—Digital computing or data processing equipment or methods, specially adapted for specific functions
    • G06F17/10—Complex mathematical operations
    • G06F17/18—Complex mathematical operations for evaluating statistical data, e.g. average values, frequency distributions, probability functions, regression analysis
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
    • G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
    • G06Q10/0635—Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/08—Logistics, e.g. warehousing, loading or distribution; Inventory or stock management
    • G06Q10/083—Shipping

Landscapes

  • Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
  • Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
  • Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • Human Resources & Organizations (AREA)
  • General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • Economics (AREA)
  • Theoretical Computer Science (AREA)
  • Entrepreneurship & Innovation (AREA)
  • Data Mining & Analysis (AREA)
  • Operations Research (AREA)
  • Strategic Management (AREA)
  • Mathematical Optimization (AREA)
  • Marketing (AREA)
  • Tourism & Hospitality (AREA)
  • Quality & Reliability (AREA)
  • Mathematical Physics (AREA)
  • Pure & Applied Mathematics (AREA)
  • Development Economics (AREA)
  • Mathematical Analysis (AREA)
  • General Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
  • Computational Mathematics (AREA)
  • Evolutionary Biology (AREA)
  • Bioinformatics & Computational Biology (AREA)
  • Bioinformatics & Cheminformatics (AREA)
  • Life Sciences & Earth Sciences (AREA)
  • Probability & Statistics with Applications (AREA)
  • Game Theory and Decision Science (AREA)
  • Algebra (AREA)
  • Educational Administration (AREA)
  • Databases & Information Systems (AREA)
  • Software Systems (AREA)
  • General Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
  • Navigation (AREA)
  • Management, Administration, Business Operations System, And Electronic Commerce (AREA)

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for predicting and evaluating a marine shipping meteorological marine risk index, which is characterized by firstly obtaining an area where a current voyage passes, then obtaining weather and marine actual situation data and forecast data based on lattice, then obtaining the position and a grid unit of a ship at the current time of calculation, obtaining four composition factors after secondary interpolation on the current ship position at the current time of calculation, adjusting and normalizing the four composition factors, taking the maximum value as a comprehensive meteorological marine risk index at the current ship position at the current time of calculation, respectively grading the comprehensive meteorological marine risk index, the range highest meteorological marine risk index, the range average meteorological marine risk index and the range high risk meteorological marine risk index at the ship position at the time of all calculation according to set division conditions to obtain a prediction evaluation result of the current range; the method has the advantages that the composition factors of the marine shipping meteorological ocean risk index are clear, and the obtained result has a higher reference value.

Description

Method for predicting and evaluating marine shipping meteorological marine risk index
Technical Field
The invention relates to a risk index prediction and evaluation method, in particular to a marine shipping meteorological ocean risk index prediction and evaluation method.
Background
The navigation science and technology make great contribution to the high-speed development of shipping economy in a day-to-day manner, but shipping accidents are still high in residence, and severe weather and sea conditions are the main reasons for high incidence of the accidents. The navigation of a ship is inevitably restricted by atmospheric and ocean conditions, and the atmospheric and ocean systems interact and influence each other. The weather is one of the important factors with larger influence in shipping risk, and mainly comprises tropical cyclone, temperate cyclone, dense fog, strong wind, heavy rain, strong convection and other strong influence weather, and the sea strong wind often causes big waves, so that the purpose of safe shipping is achieved by using favorable weather and ocean conditions to avoid the bad weather and ocean conditions as far as possible, and the high-quality development of the shipping industry is to insist on taking safety as a basic baseline, and the establishment of a shipping weather and ocean risk technical system which is comprehensive, scientific and reasonable is very urgent.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to solve the technical problem of providing a method for predicting and evaluating a marine shipping meteorological ocean risk index, which can comprehensively evaluate and predict the marine shipping meteorological ocean risk.
The technical scheme adopted by the invention for solving the technical problems is as follows: a method for predicting and evaluating a marine shipping meteorological marine risk index comprises the following steps:
defining four composition factors of wind speed, visibility, rain intensity and wave height as marine shipping meteorological ocean risk indexes, defining a journey of a ship starting from a specific time on a selected route as a current journey, acquiring a region where the current journey passes, and defining the starting moment of the current journey as T0Defining the total time length of all time periods corresponding to the current voyage as TvDefining the time to start predictive evaluation as the current time Tcur；
Secondly, acquiring the grid-based weather and ocean situation data and the grid-based weather and ocean forecast data with the grid spatial resolution Gr×GrDividing grids, and defining all calculation times in all time periods corresponding to the current voyage as T0，T1，T2……TnDefining the calculation time resolution as TrThen there is T1＝T0+Tr，T2＝T1+Tr，……，Tn＝Tn-1+TrWherein, Tn-1＜T0+Tv，Tn≥T0+TvThen let Tn＝T0+TvAccording to TvRespectively setting T corresponding to the time length rangesr、GrThe value ranges are as follows:
if T isv<For 12h, take Tr≦0.5h，Gr≦ 0.05 ° where h represents hour and ° represents latitude and longitude; if 12h ≦ Tv<Taking T24 hr≦1h，Gr0.10 DEG or less; if 24h ≦ Tv<For 72h, take Tr≦3h，Gr0.25 DEG ≦; if 72h ≦ Tv<Taking T after 120hr≦6h，Gr0.50 DEG ≦; if 120h ≦ Tv<Taking T for 240hr≦12h，Gr1.00 DEG ≦; if 240h ≦ Tv<720h, then take Tr≦24h，Gr1.50 DEG ≦; if T isvIf the time is more than or equal to 720h, not calculating;
thirdly, determining the current voyage at T according to the area passed by the current voyage0～TnThe position of each ship in the grid during calculation is defined as the current calculation time, the position of the ship during the current calculation time is obtained and defined as the current ship position, a grid unit which can completely surround the current ship position is obtained and defined as the current grid unit, the data of four composition factors of the marine weather risk index before the current calculation time and the data time closest to the current calculation time on the four grid vertexes of the current grid unit and the data of four composition factors of the marine weather risk index after the current calculation time and the data time closest to the current calculation time are obtained from the weather and ocean forecast data based on grid spotting, and the obtained data are spatially interpolated to the current ship position by a bilinear interpolation method, obtaining data after one-time interpolation on the current ship positionThen, interpolating the data after the primary interpolation on the current ship position to the current calculation time respectively by using a linear interpolation method in time to obtain four composition factors after the secondary interpolation on the current ship position in the current calculation time: wind speed viVisibility liRain strength riWave height hi；
Fourthly, setting the maximum threshold value v of the wind speedmaxAnd a minimum threshold vminSetting a maximum threshold value l for visibilitymaxAnd a minimum threshold value lminSetting a maximum threshold r of rain intensitymaxAnd a minimum threshold rminSetting a maximum threshold h for the wave heightmaxAnd a minimum threshold hminAre respectively paired with vi、li、riAnd hiThe adjustment is as follows:
when v isi≤vminTaking v by timei＝vminWhen v ismin<vi<vmaxTime keeping viUnchanged when v isi≥vmaxTaking v by timei＝vmax，
When l isi≤lminGet when li＝lminWhen l ismin<li<lmaxTime retention |)iIs unchanged wheni≥lmaxGet when li＝lmaxWhen r isi≤rminTime fetch ri＝rminWhen r ismin<ri<rmaxTime keeping riIs not changed when ri≥rmaxTime fetch ri＝rmax，
When h is generatedi≤hminTaking when hi＝hminWhen h is presentmin<hi<hmaxTime retention hiIs not changed when hi≥hmaxTaking when hi＝hmax，
Then respectively aligning the adjusted vi、li、riAnd hiThe normalization process was performed as follows:
defining the normalized wind speed as v1，
Figure GDA0002950494690000021
Defining the normalized rain intensity as r1，
Figure GDA0002950494690000022
Defining normalized wave height as h1，
Figure GDA0002950494690000031
Defining the normalized visibility as l1，
Figure GDA0002950494690000032
V is to be1、r1、h1And l1The maximum value of the total weather marine risk indexes is used as the comprehensive weather marine risk index of the current calculation time on the current ship position, and the comprehensive weather marine risk index of the current calculation time on the current ship position is graded;
acquiring the comprehensive meteorological marine risk index at the position of each calculation time ship in the current voyage, defining the maximum value of the comprehensive meteorological marine risk indexes as the highest meteorological marine risk index of the current voyage, defining the average value of the comprehensive meteorological marine risk indexes at the position of each calculation time ship in the current voyage as the mean meteorological marine risk index of the current voyage, defining the average value of the comprehensive meteorological marine risk indexes more than or equal to 0.5 in the comprehensive meteorological marine risk indexes at the position of each calculation time ship in the current voyage as the high-risk meteorological marine risk index of the current voyage, and judging that the current voyage has no major risk if the comprehensive meteorological marine risk indexes at the positions of each calculation time ship in the current voyage are less than 0.5; and grading the current voyage highest meteorological marine risk index, the voyage average meteorological marine risk index and the voyage high risk meteorological marine risk index according to set grading conditions to obtain a prediction evaluation result of the current voyage.
In the third step, when the data time is at the current time TcurPreviously, live data was obtained from the gridding based weather and ocean live data, when the data time was at the current time TcurAnd then, acquiring forecast data from the grid-based weather and ocean forecast data.
In the step (iv), vmin＝12m/s，vmax＝30m/s，lmin＝200m，lmax＝2000m，rmin＝5mm/h，rmax＝20mm/h，hmin＝3m，hmax＝12m。
The gradation conditions set in the step (iv) are as follows: the synthetic meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a first class when the synthetic meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.8 and less than or equal to 1.0, the synthetic meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a second class when the synthetic meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.6 and less than or equal to 0.8, the synthetic meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a third class when the synthetic meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.4 and less than or equal to 0.6, and the synthetic meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a fourth class when the synthetic meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.2 and less than or equal to 0.4.
The grade dividing conditions set in the fifth step are as follows: when the range maximum meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.8 and less than or equal to 1.0, the range maximum meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a first grade, when the range maximum meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.6 and less than or equal to 0.8, the range maximum meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a second grade, when the range maximum meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.4 and less than or equal to 0.6, the range maximum meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a third grade, and when the range maximum meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.2 and less than or equal to 0.4, the range maximum meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a fourth grade;
when the range average meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.8 and less than or equal to 1.0, the range average meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a first grade, when the range average meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.6 and less than or equal to 0.8, the range average meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a second grade, when the range average meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.4 and less than or equal to 0.6, the range average meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a third grade, and when the range average meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.2 and less than or equal to 0.4, the range average meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a fourth grade;
when the range high-risk meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.8 and less than or equal to 1.0, the range high-risk meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a first grade, when the range high-risk meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.6 and less than or equal to 0.8, the range high-risk meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a second grade, when the range high-risk meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.4 and less than or equal to 0.6, the range high-risk meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a third grade, and when the range high-risk meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.2 and less than or equal to 0.4, the range high-risk meteorological ocean risk index is divided into.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the advantages that the area where the current voyage passes is firstly obtained, then the grid-based weather and ocean live data and the grid-based weather and ocean forecast data are obtained, then the position of the ship at the current time of calculation and the grid unit which can completely surround the current ship position are obtained, four composition factors after the secondary interpolation on the current ship position at the current time of calculation are obtained and are adjusted and normalized, the maximum value of the four composition factors is taken as the comprehensive meteorological ocean risk index at the current ship position at the current time of calculation, and the comprehensive meteorological ocean risk index, the voyage highest meteorological risk index, the voyage average meteorological ocean risk index and the voyage high-risk meteorological ocean risk index at the current ship position at the current time of calculation are respectively graded according to the set grading conditions, obtaining a prediction evaluation result of the current voyage; the method comprises the steps that four risk factors which have the largest influence on the marine shipping are adopted, upper and lower thresholds are set and normalization processing is carried out, each risk factor is converted into a single factor risk index, then a comprehensive meteorological marine risk index is obtained, the obtained result is visual, the composition factors of the marine shipping meteorological marine risk index for carrying out risk evaluation are clear, the marine shipping meteorological marine risk can be comprehensively evaluated and pre-estimated, the result obtained by prediction evaluation has a high reference value, and the effects of risk decision making, benefit tending and avoiding harm are achieved on the marine shipping safety;
the maritime shipping meteorological ocean risk index is an index system for measuring overall meteorological and ocean safety conditions of maritime shipping and reflecting meteorological and ocean safety change trends in the maritime shipping process of ships, has very important practical significance by integrating and fusing industrial data such as shipping, meteorological and ocean and applying technologies and methods such as big data, safety assessment, index statistics and the like, fully excavating and analyzing shipping safety risks, and comprehensively reflects the change trends of main maritime route meteorological and ocean safety risks in the current and future period of time by the maritime shipping meteorological ocean risk index to achieve the purpose of benefiting and avoiding harm, provide technical support for the safe navigation of the maritime ships, provide data reference for the operation and management of shipping enterprises, the analysis and prediction of market conditions, and furthest exert the economic benefit and the social benefit of the shipping enterprises.
Detailed Description
The present invention is described in further detail below.
A method for predicting and evaluating a marine shipping meteorological marine risk index comprises the following steps:
defining four composition factors of wind speed, visibility, rain intensity and wave height as marine shipping meteorological ocean risk indexes, defining a journey of a ship starting from a specific time on a selected route as a current journey, acquiring a region where the current journey passes, and defining the starting moment of the current journey as T0Defining the total time length of all time periods corresponding to the current voyage as TvDefining the time to start predictive evaluation as the current time Tcur。
Secondly, acquiring the grid-based weather and ocean situation data and the grid-based weather and ocean forecast data with the grid spatial resolution Gr×GrDividing grids, and defining all calculation times in all time periods corresponding to the current voyage as T0，T1，T2……TnDefining the calculation time resolution as TrThen there is T1＝T0+Tr，T2＝T1+Tr，……，Tn＝Tn-1+TrWherein, Tn-1＜T0+Tv，Tn≥T0+TvThen let Tn＝T0+TvAccording to TvCorresponding time length rangeRespectively set Tr、GrThe value ranges are as follows:
if T isv<For 12h, take Tr≦0.5h，Gr≦ 0.05 ° where h represents hour and ° represents latitude and longitude; if 12h ≦ Tv<Taking T24 hr≦1h，Gr0.10 DEG or less; if 24h ≦ Tv<For 72h, take Tr≦3h，Gr0.25 DEG ≦; if 72h ≦ Tv<Taking T after 120hr≦6h，Gr0.50 DEG ≦; if 120h ≦ Tv<Taking T for 240hr≦12h，Gr1.00 DEG ≦; if 240h ≦ Tv<720h, then take Tr≦24h，Gr1.50 DEG ≦; if T isvAnd if the time is more than or equal to 720h, not calculating.
Thirdly, determining the current voyage at T according to the area passed by the current voyage0～TnThe position of each ship in the grid during calculation is defined as the current calculation time, the position of the ship during the current calculation time is obtained and defined as the current ship position, a grid unit which can completely surround the current ship position is obtained and defined as the current grid unit, the data of four composition factors of the marine weather risk index before the current calculation time and the data time closest to the current calculation time on the four grid vertexes of the current grid unit and the data of four composition factors of the marine weather risk index after the current calculation time and the data time closest to the current calculation time are obtained from the weather and ocean forecast data based on grid spotting, and the obtained data are spatially interpolated to the current ship position by a bilinear interpolation method, obtaining data after primary interpolation at the current ship position, then respectively interpolating the data after primary interpolation at the current ship position to the current calculation time by using a linear interpolation method in time, and obtaining four composition factors after secondary interpolation at the current ship position at the current calculation time: wind speed viVisibility liRain strength riWave height hi；
Step three, when the data time is at the current time TcurPreviously, live data was obtained from the gridding based weather and ocean live data, when the data time was at the current time TcurAnd then, acquiring forecast data from the grid-based weather and ocean forecast data.
Fourthly, setting the maximum threshold value v of the wind speedmaxAnd a minimum threshold vminSetting a maximum threshold value l for visibilitymaxAnd a minimum threshold value lminSetting a maximum threshold r of rain intensitymaxAnd a minimum threshold rminSetting a maximum threshold h for the wave heightmaxAnd a minimum threshold hminAre respectively paired with vi、li、riAnd hiThe adjustment is as follows:
when v isi≤vminTaking v by timei＝vminWhen v ismin<vi<vmaxTime keeping viUnchanged when v isi≥vmaxTaking v by timei＝vmax，
When l isi≤lminGet when li＝lminWhen l ismin<li<lmaxTime retention |)iIs unchanged wheni≥lmaxGet when li＝lmax，
When r isi≤rminTime fetch ri＝rminWhen r ismin<ri<rmaxTime keeping riIs not changed when ri≥rmaxTime fetch ri＝rmax，
When h is generatedi≤hminTaking when hi＝hminWhen h is presentmin<hi<hmaxTime retention hiIs not changed when hi≥hmaxTaking when hi＝hmax，
Then respectively aligning the adjusted vi、li、riAnd hiThe normalization process was performed as follows:
defining the normalized wind speed as v1，
Figure GDA0002950494690000061
Defining the normalized rain intensity as r1，
Figure GDA0002950494690000062
Defining normalized wave height as h1，
Figure GDA0002950494690000063
Defining the normalized visibility as l1，
Figure GDA0002950494690000064
V is to be1、r1、h1And l1The maximum value of the total weather marine risk indexes is used as the comprehensive weather marine risk index of the current calculation time on the current ship position, and the comprehensive weather marine risk index of the current calculation time on the current ship position is graded;
in step iv, vmin＝12m/s，vmax＝30m/s，lmin＝200m，lmax＝2000m，rmin＝5mm/h，rmax＝20mm/h，hmin＝3m，hmax＝12m。
The gradation conditions set in the step (iv) are as follows: the synthetic meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a first class when the synthetic meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.8 and less than or equal to 1.0, the synthetic meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a second class when the synthetic meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.6 and less than or equal to 0.8, the synthetic meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a third class when the synthetic meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.4 and less than or equal to 0.6, and the synthetic meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a fourth class when the synthetic meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.2 and less than or equal to 0.4.
Acquiring the comprehensive meteorological marine risk index at the position of each calculation time ship in the current voyage, defining the maximum value of the comprehensive meteorological marine risk indexes as the highest meteorological marine risk index of the current voyage, defining the average value of the comprehensive meteorological marine risk indexes at the position of each calculation time ship in the current voyage as the mean meteorological marine risk index of the current voyage, defining the average value of the comprehensive meteorological marine risk indexes more than or equal to 0.5 in the comprehensive meteorological marine risk indexes at the position of each calculation time ship in the current voyage as the high-risk meteorological marine risk index of the current voyage, and judging that the current voyage has no major risk if the comprehensive meteorological marine risk indexes at the positions of each calculation time ship in the current voyage are less than 0.5; respectively grading the current voyage highest meteorological marine risk index, the voyage average meteorological marine risk index and the voyage high risk meteorological marine risk index according to set grading conditions to obtain a prediction evaluation result of the current voyage;
the grade dividing conditions set in the fifth step are as follows: when the range maximum meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.8 and less than or equal to 1.0, the range maximum meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a first grade, when the range maximum meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.6 and less than or equal to 0.8, the range maximum meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a second grade, when the range maximum meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.4 and less than or equal to 0.6, the range maximum meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a third grade, and when the range maximum meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.2 and less than or equal to 0.4, the range maximum meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a fourth grade;
when the range average meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.8 and less than or equal to 1.0, the range average meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a first grade, when the range average meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.6 and less than or equal to 0.8, the range average meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a second grade, when the range average meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.4 and less than or equal to 0.6, the range average meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a third grade, and when the range average meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.2 and less than or equal to 0.4, the range average meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a fourth grade;
when the range high-risk meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.8 and less than or equal to 1.0, the range high-risk meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a first grade, when the range high-risk meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.6 and less than or equal to 0.8, the range high-risk meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a second grade, when the range high-risk meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.4 and less than or equal to 0.6, the range high-risk meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a third grade, and when the range high-risk meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.2 and less than or equal to 0.4, the range high-risk meteorological ocean risk index is divided into.

Claims (5)

1. A method for predicting and evaluating a marine shipping meteorological marine risk index is characterized by comprising the following steps:
defining four composition factors of wind speed, visibility, rain intensity and wave height as marine shipping meteorological ocean risk indexes, defining a journey of a ship starting from a specific time on a selected route as a current journey, acquiring a region where the current journey passes, and defining the starting moment of the current journey as T0Defining the total time length of all time periods corresponding to the current voyage as TvDefining the time to start predictive evaluation as the current time Tcur；
Secondly, acquiring the grid-based weather and ocean situation data and the grid-based weather and ocean forecast data with the grid spatial resolution Gr×GrDividing grids, and defining all calculation times in all time periods corresponding to the current voyage as T0，T1，T2……TnDefining the calculation time resolution as TrThen there is T1＝T0+Tr，T2＝T1+Tr，……，Tn＝Tn-1+TrWherein, Tn-1＜T0+Tv，Tn≥T0+TvThen let Tn＝T0+TvAccording to TvRespectively setting T corresponding to the time length rangesr、GrThe value ranges are as follows:
if T isv<For 12h, take Tr≦0.5h，Gr≦ 0.05 ° where h represents hour and ° represents latitude and longitude; if 12h ≦ Tv<Taking T24 hr≦1h，Gr0.10 DEG or less; if 24h ≦ Tv<For 72h, take Tr≦3h，Gr0.25 DEG ≦; if 72h ≦ Tv<Taking T after 120hr≦6h，Gr0.50 DEG ≦; if 120h ≦ Tv<Taking T for 240hr≦12h，Gr1.00 DEG ≦; if 240h ≦ Tv<720h, then take Tr≦24h，Gr1.50 DEG ≦; if T isvIf the time is more than or equal to 720h, not calculating;
thirdly, determining the current voyage at T according to the area passed by the current voyage0～TnThe position of each ship in the grid during calculation is defined as the current calculation time, the position of the ship during the current calculation time is obtained and defined as the current ship position, a grid unit which can completely surround the current ship position is obtained and defined as the current grid unit, the data of four composition factors of the marine weather risk index before the current calculation time and the data time closest to the current calculation time on the four grid vertexes of the current grid unit and the data of four composition factors of the marine weather risk index after the current calculation time and the data time closest to the current calculation time are obtained from the weather and ocean forecast data based on grid spotting, and the obtained data are spatially interpolated to the current ship position by a bilinear interpolation method, obtaining data after primary interpolation at the current ship position, then respectively interpolating the data after primary interpolation at the current ship position to the current calculation time by using a linear interpolation method in time, and obtaining four composition factors after secondary interpolation at the current ship position at the current calculation time: wind speed viVisibility liRain strength riWave height hi；
Fourthly, setting the maximum threshold value v of the wind speedmaxAnd a minimum threshold vminSetting a maximum threshold value l for visibilitymaxAnd a minimum threshold value lminSetting a maximum threshold r of rain intensitymaxAnd a minimum threshold rminSetting a maximum threshold h for the wave heightmaxAnd a minimum threshold hminAre respectively paired with vi、li、riAnd hiThe adjustment is as follows:
when v isi≤vminTaking v by timei＝vminWhen v ismin<vi<vmaxTime keeping viUnchanged when v isi≥vmaxTaking v by timei＝vmax，
When l isi≤lminGet when li＝lminWhen l ismin<li<lmaxTime retention |)iIs unchanged wheni≥lmaxGet when li＝lmax，
When r isi≤rminTime fetch ri＝rminWhen r ismin<ri<rmaxTime keeping riIs not changed when ri≥rmaxTime fetch ri＝rmax，
When h is generatedi≤hminTaking when hi＝hminWhen h is presentmin<hi<hmaxTime retention hiIs not changed when hi≥hmaxTaking when hi＝hmax，
Then respectively aligning the adjusted vi、li、riAnd hiThe normalization process was performed as follows:
defining the normalized wind speed as v1，
Figure FDA0002950494680000021
Defining the normalized rain intensity as r1，
Figure FDA0002950494680000022
Defining normalized wave height as h1，
Figure FDA0002950494680000023
Defining the normalized visibility as l1，
Figure FDA0002950494680000024
V is to be1、r1、h1And l1The maximum value of the total weather marine risk indexes is used as the comprehensive weather marine risk index of the current calculation time on the current ship position, and the comprehensive weather marine risk index of the current calculation time on the current ship position is graded;
acquiring the comprehensive meteorological marine risk index at the position of each calculation time ship in the current voyage, defining the maximum value of the comprehensive meteorological marine risk indexes as the highest meteorological marine risk index of the current voyage, defining the average value of the comprehensive meteorological marine risk indexes at the position of each calculation time ship in the current voyage as the mean meteorological marine risk index of the current voyage, defining the average value of the comprehensive meteorological marine risk indexes more than or equal to 0.5 in the comprehensive meteorological marine risk indexes at the position of each calculation time ship in the current voyage as the high-risk meteorological marine risk index of the current voyage, and judging that the current voyage has no major risk if the comprehensive meteorological marine risk indexes at the positions of each calculation time ship in the current voyage are less than 0.5; and grading the current voyage highest meteorological marine risk index, the voyage average meteorological marine risk index and the voyage high risk meteorological marine risk index according to set grading conditions to obtain a prediction evaluation result of the current voyage.
2. The method for the predictive assessment of the marine shipping meteorological marine risk index of claim 1, wherein in step (c), when the data time is at the current time TcurPreviously, live data was obtained from the gridding based weather and ocean live data, when the data time was at the current time TcurAnd then, acquiring forecast data from the grid-based weather and ocean forecast data.
3. The method for predicting and evaluating the risk index of marine shipping meteorological oceans according to claim 1, wherein in the step (iv), vmin＝12m/s，vmax＝30m/s，lmin＝200m，lmax＝2000m，rmin＝5mm/h，rmax＝20mm/h，hmin＝3m，hmax＝12m。
4. The method for predicting and evaluating the marine shipping meteorological marine risk index according to claim 1, wherein the grading conditions set in the step (iv) are as follows: the synthetic meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a first class when the synthetic meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.8 and less than or equal to 1.0, the synthetic meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a second class when the synthetic meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.6 and less than or equal to 0.8, the synthetic meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a third class when the synthetic meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.4 and less than or equal to 0.6, and the synthetic meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a fourth class when the synthetic meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.2 and less than or equal to 0.4.
5. The method for the predictive assessment of the marine shipping meteorological marine risk index according to claim 1, wherein the graduating conditions set in the fifth step are as follows: when the range maximum meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.8 and less than or equal to 1.0, the range maximum meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a first grade, when the range maximum meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.6 and less than or equal to 0.8, the range maximum meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a second grade, when the range maximum meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.4 and less than or equal to 0.6, the range maximum meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a third grade, and when the range maximum meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.2 and less than or equal to 0.4, the range maximum meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a fourth grade;
when the range average meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.8 and less than or equal to 1.0, the range average meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a first grade, when the range average meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.6 and less than or equal to 0.8, the range average meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a second grade, when the range average meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.4 and less than or equal to 0.6, the range average meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a third grade, and when the range average meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.2 and less than or equal to 0.4, the range average meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a fourth grade;
when the range high-risk meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.8 and less than or equal to 1.0, the range high-risk meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a first grade, when the range high-risk meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.6 and less than or equal to 0.8, the range high-risk meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a second grade, when the range high-risk meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.4 and less than or equal to 0.6, the range high-risk meteorological ocean risk index is divided into a third grade, and when the range high-risk meteorological ocean risk index is less than or equal to 0.2 and less than or equal to 0.4, the range high-risk meteorological ocean risk index is divided into.
CN202010673899.9A 2020-07-14 2020-07-14 Method for predicting and evaluating marine shipping meteorological marine risk index Active CN112084460B (en)

Priority Applications (1)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
CN202010673899.9A CN112084460B (en) 2020-07-14 2020-07-14 Method for predicting and evaluating marine shipping meteorological marine risk index

Applications Claiming Priority (1)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
CN202010673899.9A CN112084460B (en) 2020-07-14 2020-07-14 Method for predicting and evaluating marine shipping meteorological marine risk index

Publications (2)

Publication Number Publication Date
CN112084460A CN112084460A (en) 2020-12-15
CN112084460B true CN112084460B (en) 2021-05-07

Family

ID=73735047

Family Applications (1)

Application Number Title Priority Date Filing Date
CN202010673899.9A Active CN112084460B (en) 2020-07-14 2020-07-14 Method for predicting and evaluating marine shipping meteorological marine risk index

Country Status (1)

Country Link
CN (1) CN112084460B (en)

Families Citing this family (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN112699197B (en) * 2020-12-31 2022-09-20 宁波市气象服务中心 Quantitative analysis method for visibility navigation control data

Citations (5)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN109243205A (en) * 2018-08-29 2019-01-18 上海海事大学 A kind of monitoring of coastwise traffic security risk and early warning system and method
CN111090278A (en) * 2018-10-24 2020-05-01 大连永航科技有限公司 Automatic navigation system based on ocean weather forecast
US10650469B1 (en) * 2014-09-22 2020-05-12 State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Company Insurance underwriting and re-underwriting implementing unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)
US10678233B2 (en) * 2017-08-02 2020-06-09 Strong Force Iot Portfolio 2016, Llc Systems and methods for data collection and data sharing in an industrial environment
CN111401702A (en) * 2020-03-06 2020-07-10 南京大学 Maritime traffic risk assessment method

Family Cites Families (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN105575185B (en) * 2016-01-04 2017-12-29 上海海事大学 Waterborne and marine intelligent cruise system

Patent Citations (5)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
US10650469B1 (en) * 2014-09-22 2020-05-12 State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Company Insurance underwriting and re-underwriting implementing unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)
US10678233B2 (en) * 2017-08-02 2020-06-09 Strong Force Iot Portfolio 2016, Llc Systems and methods for data collection and data sharing in an industrial environment
CN109243205A (en) * 2018-08-29 2019-01-18 上海海事大学 A kind of monitoring of coastwise traffic security risk and early warning system and method
CN111090278A (en) * 2018-10-24 2020-05-01 大连永航科技有限公司 Automatic navigation system based on ocean weather forecast
CN111401702A (en) * 2020-03-06 2020-07-10 南京大学 Maritime traffic risk assessment method

Non-Patent Citations (3)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Title
Individual collision risk assessment in ship navigation: A systematic literature review;Ulku Ozturk, et al;《Ocean Engineering》;20190515;第180卷;第130-134页 *
基于突变理论的海上交通风险预测研究;齐迹;《中国博士学位论文全文数据库工程科技II辑》;20141231(第12期);第C034-124页 *
恶劣天气下海上交通安全风险动态预评估体系;戴厚兴，等;《中国航海》;20160930;第39卷(第3期);第73-76页 *

Also Published As

Publication number Publication date
CN112084460A (en) 2020-12-15

Similar Documents

Publication Publication Date Title
Thomas et al. Methods to homogenize wind speeds from ships and buoys
Weisse et al. Regional meteorological–marine Reanalyses and climate change projections: Results for Northern Europe and potential for coastal and offshore applications
CN111914462B (en) Method and device for predicting target drift of maritime search and rescue
Narayan et al. Trends in coastal upwelling intensity during the late 20th century
CN111428916B (en) Navigation path planning method for rescue vessel at sea
Lu et al. Voyage optimisation: prediction of ship specific fuel consumption for energy efficient shipping
Nielsen et al. A novel approach for navigational guidance of ships using onboard monitoring systems
CN112084460B (en) Method for predicting and evaluating marine shipping meteorological marine risk index
Bitner-Gregerse et al. Adverse weather conditions for ship manoeuvrability
CN111401702B (en) Offshore traffic risk assessment method
Kim et al. A Yellow Sea monitoring platform and its scientific applications
Lei et al. Characterization of summer Arctic sea ice morphology in the 135–175 W sector using multi-scale methods
Farkas et al. Wave statistics for the middle Adriatic Sea
Katalinić et al. Wave statistics in the Adriatic Sea based on 24 years of satellite measurements
Chang et al. Global energy-saving Map of strong ocean currents
Chen Voyage optimization supersedes weather routing
Li et al. Small boat detection for radar image datasets with yolo V3 network
CN115877843A (en) Ice zone ship path planning method and system based on optimal control and storage medium
WO2022213527A1 (en) Precipitation clutter suppression algorithm for marine radar
Chan et al. Response forecasts for a suspended wellbay module and flare tower during transit to shore
CN111768068B (en) Maritime search and rescue ship response capability assessment method
CN114331042A (en) Ship collision risk analysis method
KR101037601B1 (en) A classification system of approaching, landfalling, and influencing typhoons in the korean peninsula and typhoon statistic method thereby
Pan et al. Optimization of the Gain Parameters in a Tracking Module for ARPA system on Board High Dynamic Warships
KR102309345B1 (en) System and Method for Providing Consumer-Customized Coastal weather information according to working field and area of consumer

Legal Events

Date Code Title Description
PB01 Publication
PB01 Publication
SE01 Entry into force of request for substantive examination
SE01 Entry into force of request for substantive examination
GR01 Patent grant
GR01 Patent grant