CN111598467A - Reliability evaluation method and system for gathering and transportation combined station and key equipment - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention provides a reliability evaluation method and a system for a gathering and transportation combined station and key equipment, which comprises the following steps: collecting basic data of key equipment; analyzing the fault characteristics of the key equipment, and constructing a fault tree of the key equipment according to the analysis result; carrying out reliability qualitative and quantitative analysis on a fault tree of the key equipment by using basic data acquisition, establishing an equipment reliability analysis model, and obtaining reliability parameters through the reliability analysis model to realize single equipment-level reliability analysis; performing the reliability analysis of the whole process of the combined station by using GO algorithm operation according to the reliability parameters to realize the layered step type reliability analysis; the adaptability of the reliability analysis method under the complex process of the united station is improved, and the limitation of the traditional method on the reliability analysis of the process system with actual logistics is solved; the link with the lowest reliability in the process can be conveniently found out, and the link can be checked and repaired in time; high system reliability and high analysis accuracy.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of station-to-reservoir reliability analysis, in particular to a full-process reliability evaluation method and system applied to an oil field gathering and transportation system combined station.
Background
The gathering and transportation united station is a production unit which gathers, stores, heats, dehydrates, separates and meters crude oil produced by oil wells in an oil field and then exports the crude oil, and is a place with high risk and concentration. The production process related to the gathering and transportation combined station is very complex, the process condition requirement is very strict, the production medium has the characteristics of high temperature and high pressure, flammability, explosiveness, corrosion, toxicity and the like, along with the increasing of the oil and gas exploitation difficulty of an oil field and the urgent need of excavation and potential production increase, the brought safety problems are increasingly shown, the production device tends to be large-sized, the continuity and the automation degree of the production process are improved, the possibility of accidents in the production process is increased, and once the safety accidents occur, the caused harm and loss are very serious. Therefore, the method for evaluating the safety and reliability of the gathering and transportation combined station and key equipment is provided, a combined station reliability analysis model is established by adopting a layered and stepped reliability analysis method from a single equipment level to a combined station level, and the safety and reliability of the combined station are improved.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the technical problems, compared with the traditional reliability analysis method, the reliability analysis method is optimized in three aspects of fault analysis of key equipment, a reliability model of the whole process of the joint station and a joint station reliability calculation method. The adaptability of the reliability analysis method under the complex process of the united station is improved; the following technical scheme is adopted:
in a first aspect, the present invention provides a method for evaluating the safety and reliability of a gathering and transportation combined station and key devices, comprising the steps of:
collecting basic data of key equipment;
analyzing the fault characteristics of the key equipment, and constructing a fault tree of the key equipment according to the analysis result; carrying out reliability qualitative and quantitative analysis on a fault tree of the key equipment by using basic data acquisition, establishing an equipment reliability analysis model, and obtaining reliability parameters through the reliability analysis model to realize single equipment-level reliability analysis;
and performing the reliability analysis of the whole process of the combined station by using GO algorithm operation according to the reliability parameters, thereby realizing the layered and stepped reliability analysis.
In a second aspect, the present invention further provides a system for evaluating the safety and reliability of a gathering and transportation combined station and key devices, including:
an acquisition module configured to: collecting basic data of key equipment;
a fault signature analysis module configured to: analyzing the fault characteristics of the key equipment, and constructing a fault tree of the key equipment according to the analysis result; carrying out reliability qualitative and quantitative analysis on a fault tree of the key equipment by using basic data acquisition, establishing an equipment reliability analysis model, and obtaining reliability parameters through the reliability analysis model to realize single equipment-level reliability analysis;
a full-flow reliability analysis module configured to: and performing the reliability analysis of the whole process of the combined station by using GO algorithm operation according to the reliability parameters, thereby realizing the layered and stepped reliability analysis.
In a third aspect, the present invention further provides a computer-readable storage medium for storing computer instructions, and when the computer instructions are executed by a processor, the method for evaluating the safety and reliability of the combined gathering and transportation station and the critical equipment according to the first aspect is completed.
In a fourth aspect, the present invention further provides an electronic device, which includes a memory, a processor, and computer instructions stored in the memory and executed on the processor, where the computer instructions, when executed by the processor, implement the method for evaluating the safety and reliability of the station and the critical device according to the first aspect.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
1. compared with the traditional reliability analysis method, the reliability analysis method is optimized in three aspects of fault analysis of key equipment, a reliability model of the whole process of the joint station and a joint station reliability calculation method. The adaptability of the reliability analysis method under the complex process of the united station is improved, and the limitation of the traditional method on the reliability analysis of the process system with actual logistics is solved.
2. Compared with the traditional calculation method, the joint station reliability calculation method adopted by the invention can improve the accuracy of the joint station reliability calculation result. The adopted hierarchical step type calculation method can calculate the reliability of any component in the process of the joint station, is convenient for finding out the link with the lowest reliability in the process, and can check and repair the link in time.
3. The method for analyzing the reliability of the key equipment can determine the contribution of system components to system faults, sequence the importance of key parts, evaluate the influence of system components and external events on the reliability of the system, identify the key parts of the system and establish a system maintenance management system.
4. The GO method adopted by the invention can describe the states and state changes of the system and the components at various time points, can be used for the probability analysis of the time-sequenced joint station system, can directly represent the interaction and correlation among the system, the components and the components, and is easy to check, change and modify.
5. The invention combines the fault tree analysis method and the GO method as a graphic deduction method to enable the method to be more visual and intuitive, and can link various factors possibly causing system faults, including direct factors, indirect factors and the like, so as to improve the analysis precision of the system reliability.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings, which are incorporated in and constitute a part of this application, illustrate embodiments of the application and, together with the description, serve to explain the application and are not intended to limit the application.
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a key equipment reliability analysis of the present invention.
FIG. 2 is a flow chart of the reliability analysis of the joint plant overall flow of the present invention.
The specific implementation mode is as follows:
the invention is further described with reference to the following figures and examples.
It should be noted that the following detailed description is exemplary and is intended to provide further explanation of the disclosure. Unless defined otherwise, all technical and scientific terms used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this application belongs.
It is noted that the terminology used herein is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to be limiting of example embodiments according to the present application. As used herein, the singular forms "a", "an" and "the" are intended to include the plural forms as well, and it should be understood that when the terms "comprises" and/or "comprising" are used in this specification, they specify the presence of stated features, steps, operations, devices, components, and/or combinations thereof, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise.
In the present invention, terms such as "upper", "lower", "left", "right", "front", "rear", "vertical", "horizontal", "side", "bottom", and the like indicate orientations or positional relationships based on the orientations or positional relationships shown in the drawings, and are only terms of relationships determined for convenience of describing structural relationships of the parts or elements of the present invention, and are not intended to refer to any parts or elements of the present invention, and are not to be construed as limiting the present invention.
In the present invention, terms such as "fixedly connected", "connected", and the like are to be understood in a broad sense, and may be a fixed connection, or may be an integral connection or a detachable connection; may be directly connected or indirectly connected through an intermediate. The specific meanings of the above terms in the present invention can be determined according to specific situations by persons skilled in the relevant scientific or technical field, and are not to be construed as limiting the present invention.
Example 1
A safety and reliability evaluation method for a gathering and transportation joint station and key equipment comprises key equipment reliability analysis and joint station full-process reliability analysis. The reliability analysis of the key equipment adopts a fault tree analysis method, and the reliability analysis of the whole process of the combined station adopts a GO method.
The key equipment reliability analysis comprises basic data acquisition, key equipment fault feature analysis, fault tree construction and equipment reliability qualitative and quantitative analysis, wherein the basic data acquisition comprises the Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF), the accident rate and the reliability of the equipment. And the key equipment fault characteristic analysis is to investigate and summarize the fault characteristic mode of the combined station equipment. The fault tree of the equipment can be constructed through the key equipment fault characteristic analysis, and the constructed fault tree can be subjected to reliability qualitative and quantitative analysis by utilizing the basic data acquisition, so that a complete equipment reliability analysis model is formed.
The reliability analysis of the whole process of the combined station is established on the basis of the reliability analysis of the key equipment, and after an equipment reliability analysis model is established, standard operators defined by a GO method are used for connecting into a logic function block diagram according to the process flow of the combined station. Reliability parameters of the single equipment can be obtained through the reliability analysis of the key equipment, and the reliability qualitative and quantitative analysis of the whole flow of the joint station can be carried out by utilizing GO method operation, so that a layered and stepped reliability analysis method from the single equipment level to the joint station level is realized, and the reliability analysis and evaluation of the whole system are further carried out.
The fault tree construction takes the equipment fault event as an analysis target, finds out all direct factors and possible reasons causing the top event until tracing back the most basic direct factors causing the system fault, and connects the events of various levels into a fault tree by using logic gate symbols describing the logic causal relationship among the events.
The equipment reliability qualitative and quantitative analysis comprises qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis of a fault tree, wherein the qualitative analysis is to find out weak links in a fault mode by using a minimal cut set, and the quantitative analysis is to evaluate the occurrence probability of an event according to the occurrence probability of a bottom event.
The GO method is characterized in that specific components in a system schematic diagram, a flow diagram or an engineering diagram are represented by operators and connected by signal streams, and various functions of system reliability analysis of the GO method can be completed by utilizing the operation rules of the GO diagram and the GO operators.
As shown in fig. 1, a reliability analysis process of a key device is provided, before performing reliability analysis, basic data acquisition and device failure mode analysis need to be performed, after collecting and investigating a failure that has occurred once and a failure that may occur in the future of an analyzed device, a logical causal relationship between a system specific failure, i.e., a top event, and all possible factors causing the failure is found out, the relationship is connected by various logical gate symbols to form a failure tree diagram, qualitative and quantitative analysis is performed to find out a weak link of the device and calculate reliability, and effective measures are provided and implemented.
As shown in fig. 2, a reliability analysis process of the whole process of the combined station is provided, the conditions of the whole combined station system, including the function, structural principle, working procedure, operation condition, various important parameters, and the like of the combined station, are familiar, a process flow diagram and a layout diagram are drawn, after the reliability analysis of the key equipment is performed, a GO diagram is established by using operators and signal flows defined by a GO method, qualitative and quantitative analysis is performed from a single equipment level to a combined station level, and after improvement measures are provided for the combined station, efficiency evaluation is performed again, so that a cyclic reliability evaluation model system is formed.
The qualitative analysis is one of core contents of reliability analysis, is the basis of quantitative analysis, and mainly aims to find out all possible fault modes causing system faults, namely identifying reasons or combinations of reasons causing top events, so as to find weak links of the system and judge potential faults of the system, thereby optimizing the design of the system, guiding the diagnosis of the system faults and improving the use and maintenance scheme of the system.
The main purpose of the quantitative analysis is to utilize a fault tree and a GO graph as an analysis calculation model to evaluate the occurrence probability of a top event (combined station system fault) under the condition that the occurrence probability of a bottom event (single equipment) is known, so as to quantitatively evaluate the reliability, safety and risk of the system.
The effective measures are provided and implemented, and the potential risk factors of the system are found out according to the results of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, the weak links of the system are identified, the factors such as price and technology are considered, the most economical and reasonable risk control scheme is worked out and implemented, and the purposes of reducing the risk of system faults and improving the reliability and safety of the system are achieved.
In the quantitative analysis of the reliability analysis of the whole process of the combined station, the connection modes of the process flows are different, and the calculation methods of the reliability parameters are also different. In a series system, assuming that the units of the system are independent of each other, the system reliability parameter Φ (X) can be expressed as:
in a parallel system, assuming that the units of the system are independent of each other, the system reliability parameter Φ (X) can be expressed as:
where Φ (X) is a system reliability parameter, Φ (X)i) And n is the number of the devices as the reliability parameter of the single device. The reliability analysis of the series-parallel system can adopt an equivalent analysis method and carry out analysis according to the following processes: firstly, analyzing the system structure, simplifying the parallel or serial parts in the system, dividing the parts into subsystems, and calculating the reliability parameters of the subsystems by using serial and parallel calculation methods; and each subsystem is equivalent to a constituent unit of the system, namely, the subsystem is reduced to a simple parallel or series system with the same structure as the original system.
In the case of the example 2, the following examples are given,
the invention provides a method for evaluating the safety and reliability of a gathering and transportation combined station and key equipment, which is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
collecting basic data of key equipment; analyzing the fault characteristics of the key equipment, and constructing a fault tree of the key equipment according to the analysis result; carrying out reliability qualitative and quantitative analysis on a fault tree of the key equipment by using basic data acquisition, establishing an equipment reliability analysis model, and obtaining reliability parameters through the reliability analysis model to realize single equipment-level reliability analysis; and performing the reliability analysis of the whole process of the combined station by using GO algorithm operation according to the reliability parameters, thereby realizing the layered and stepped reliability analysis.
The key equipment basic data collection comprises the average fault-free running time, the accident rate and the reliability of the equipment. And the key equipment fault characteristic analysis is to investigate and summarize the fault characteristic mode of the combined station equipment.
The method for analyzing the reliability of the whole process of the united station comprises the following steps: connecting standard operational characters defined by a GO method according to a process flow of the combined station into a logic function block diagram; reliability parameters of the single equipment are obtained through the reliability analysis of the key equipment, and the reliability qualitative and quantitative analysis of the whole flow of the joint station is carried out by utilizing GO method operation, so that the layered and stepped reliability analysis method from the single equipment level to the joint station level is realized.
The equipment reliability qualitative and quantitative analysis comprises qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis of a fault tree, wherein the qualitative analysis is to find out weak links in a fault mode by using a minimal cut set, and the quantitative analysis is to evaluate the occurrence probability of an event according to the occurrence probability of a bottom event.
The fault tree construction takes the equipment fault event as an analysis target, finds out all direct factors and possible reasons causing the top event until the basic direct factors causing the system fault, and connects the equipment fault events of various levels into a fault tree by using logic gate symbols describing the logic causal relationship among the events.
The GO method is characterized in that specific components in a system schematic diagram, a flow chart or an engineering diagram are represented by operators; and connecting the operational characters by using a signal flow, and completing a function of analyzing the system reliability by using a GO method by using the GO diagram and the operational rule of the GO operational character.
In the quantitative analysis of the whole-process reliability analysis of the combined station, the reliability parameter calculation method is divided into series system calculation and parallel system calculation according to different connection modes of process flows.
The serial system is calculated by adopting a serial system, and if the units of the system are mutually independent, the system reliability parameter phi (X) can be expressed as follows:
where Φ (X) is a system reliability parameter, Φ (X)i) And n is the number of the devices as the reliability parameter of the single device.
Parallel system calculation is performed in a parallel system, and assuming that units of the system are independent of each other, a system reliability parameter Φ (X) can be expressed as:
in other embodiments, the present invention further provides:
a safety and reliability evaluation system for a gathering and transportation combined station and key equipment comprises:
an acquisition module configured to: collecting basic data of key equipment;
a fault signature analysis module configured to: analyzing the fault characteristics of the key equipment, and constructing a fault tree of the key equipment according to the analysis result; carrying out reliability qualitative and quantitative analysis on a fault tree of the key equipment by using basic data acquisition, establishing an equipment reliability analysis model, and obtaining reliability parameters through the reliability analysis model to realize single equipment-level reliability analysis;
a full-flow reliability analysis module configured to: and performing the reliability analysis of the whole process of the combined station by using GO algorithm operation according to the reliability parameters, thereby realizing the layered and stepped reliability analysis.
Further, the specific processes configured for the acquisition module, the fault feature analysis module and the full-process reliability analysis module respectively correspond to the methods for evaluating the safety and reliability of the gathering and transportation combined station and the key equipment in the above embodiments.
A computer readable storage medium for storing computer instructions, which when executed by a processor, perform the method for evaluating the safety and reliability of a combined gathering and transportation station and critical equipment as described in the above embodiments.
An electronic device comprising a memory and a processor, and computer instructions stored on the memory and executed on the processor, wherein the computer instructions, when executed by the processor, perform the method for evaluating the safety and reliability of a gathering and transportation combined station and a critical device as described in the above embodiments.
Although the embodiments of the present invention have been described with reference to the accompanying drawings, it is not intended to limit the scope of the present invention, and it should be understood by those skilled in the art that various modifications and variations can be made without inventive efforts by those skilled in the art based on the technical solution of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A safety and reliability evaluation method for a gathering and transportation combined station and key equipment is characterized by comprising the following steps:
collecting basic data of key equipment;
analyzing the fault characteristics of the key equipment, and constructing a fault tree of the key equipment according to the analysis result; carrying out reliability qualitative and quantitative analysis on a fault tree of the key equipment by using basic data acquisition, establishing an equipment reliability analysis model, and obtaining reliability parameters through the reliability analysis model to realize single equipment-level reliability analysis;
and performing the reliability analysis of the whole process of the combined station by using GO algorithm operation according to the reliability parameters, thereby realizing the layered and stepped reliability analysis.
2. The safety reliability evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein the step of analyzing the reliability of the whole process of the joint station comprises:
connecting standard operational characters defined by a GO method according to a process flow of the combined station into a logic function block diagram;
reliability parameters of the single equipment are obtained through the reliability analysis of the key equipment, and the reliability qualitative and quantitative analysis of the whole flow of the joint station is carried out by utilizing GO method operation, so that the layered and stepped reliability analysis method from the single equipment level to the joint station level is realized.
3. The safety reliability evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the reliability of the equipment comprises a qualitative analysis and a quantitative analysis of a fault tree, the qualitative analysis is to find weak links in a fault mode by using a minimal cut set, and the quantitative analysis is to determine the probability of occurrence of an event according to the probability of occurrence of a bottom event.
4. The safety reliability evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein the fault tree construction takes the equipment fault event as an analysis target, finds out all direct factors and possible causes causing the top event until the basic direct factors causing the system fault, and connects the equipment fault events of various levels into a fault tree by using logic gate symbols describing the logic causal relationship among the events.
5. A method for evaluating safety and reliability according to claim 1, wherein the GO method represents specific components in a schematic diagram, a flow chart or an engineering diagram of a system by using operators; and connecting the operational characters by using a signal flow, and completing a function of analyzing the system reliability by using a GO method by using the GO diagram and the operational rule of the GO operational character.
6. The safety reliability evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein in the quantitative analysis of the reliability analysis of the whole process flow of the combined station, the reliability parameter calculation method is divided into series system calculation and parallel system calculation according to different connection modes of process flows.
7. The method according to claim 6, wherein the serial system is calculated by using a serial system, and wherein the false positive is calculated by using a serial systemIf the units of the system are independent of each other, the system reliability parameter Φ (X) can be expressed as:
where Φ (X) is a system reliability parameter, Φ (X)i) And n is the number of the devices as the reliability parameter of the single device.
8. A safety and reliability evaluation system for a gathering and transportation combined station and key equipment is characterized by comprising:
an acquisition module configured to: collecting basic data of key equipment;
a fault signature analysis module configured to: analyzing the fault characteristics of the key equipment, and constructing a fault tree of the key equipment according to the analysis result; carrying out reliability qualitative and quantitative analysis on a fault tree of the key equipment by using basic data acquisition, establishing an equipment reliability analysis model, and obtaining reliability parameters through the reliability analysis model to realize single equipment-level reliability analysis;
a full-flow reliability analysis module configured to: and performing the reliability analysis of the whole process of the combined station by using GO algorithm operation according to the reliability parameters, thereby realizing the layered and stepped reliability analysis.
9. A computer-readable storage medium storing computer instructions which, when executed by a processor, perform the method for assessing the safety and reliability of a gathering and transportation joint station and critical equipment according to any one of claims 1 to 7.
10. An electronic device comprising a memory and a processor and computer instructions stored on the memory and executed on the processor, wherein the computer instructions, when executed by the processor, perform a method of assessing the safety and reliability of a gathering and transportation substation and critical equipment as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 7.
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| PCT/CN2021/093914 WO2021233231A1 (en) | 2020-05-20 | 2021-05-14 | Method and system for evaluating reliability of gathering and transportation combination station and key device |
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| WO2021233231A1 (en) * | 2020-05-20 | 2021-11-25 | 中国石油大学(华东) | Method and system for evaluating reliability of gathering and transportation combination station and key device |
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| CN117150827B (en) * | 2023-10-30 | 2024-02-06 | 中国核电工程有限公司 | Power supply system reliability analysis method and device, computer equipment and medium |
| CN117407993B (en) * | 2023-12-14 | 2024-02-27 | 中国石油大学(华东) | Reliability optimization method for ultra-deep water pile hammer system |
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