CN111523741A - Oil gas pipeline danger and risk assessment system - Google Patents
Oil gas pipeline danger and risk assessment system Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses an oil and gas pipeline danger and risk assessment system, which comprises: a risk criterion determination module determines a risk tolerable criterion for the item under evaluation; the risk point and control point identification module is used for identifying risk points and important control points existing in the project; the scene identification and screening module identifies different scenes of each risk point in the project and screens the different scenes; the consequence and severity evaluation module evaluates the consequences and severity of the potential initial event trigger in the project; the initial event confirmation module confirms the existing initial event in the project; the protection layer and the independent protection layer in the independent protection layer evaluation module project allocate risk-free capability for the identified independent protection layer; the scene frequency calculation module calculates the frequency of occurrence of the consequences of the corresponding scenes of the risk points in the project; and the risk assessment suggesting module compares the calculation frequency obtained by the scene frequency calculation module with a tolerable standard to obtain the risk of the evaluated project and provide corresponding improvement measures.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of wind risk and risk assessment of oil and gas pipelines, in particular to a risk and risk assessment system suitable for a long-distance oil and gas pipeline.
Background
With the continuous extension of the mileage of the oil and gas pipeline, the great-foot development and the continuous progress are made in the large-pipe-diameter, high-pressure and networking directions, and simultaneously, the more rigorous requirements on the production process are provided. The service life of the long-distance pipeline in service is close to the design life and enters the accident multi-occurrence period, and various accidents also occur in part of newly-built pipelines. The method and the device for evaluating the danger and the risk of the station process system and distributing the safety function of the required protective layer are important methods and means for effectively preventing various accidents in the operation process of the pipeline on the premise of meeting the tolerable risk standard.
The HAZOP analysis method is a qualitative risk and risk assessment method commonly used in the industry, and has the characteristics of strong subjective factors, lack of objectivity and incapability of quantifying residual risk; the quantitative evaluation method has the characteristics of long time consumption and incapability of updating the database in time, and can not fundamentally solve the key problems of quickly and accurately judging the residual risk of the oil and gas transmission station and pertinently providing recommendation suggestions and the like.
At present, the main problems in the implementation process of risk and risk assessment of oil and gas pipelines are as follows:
firstly, the risks of companies in different regions can be tolerated and have different standards, and the requirements of HSE system files of national companies, group companies, regional companies and oil and gas transportation branch companies are considered in combination with the actual conditions of the companies in the respective regions;
secondly, different regional companies or oil and gas transportation branch companies have different management modes, so that the corresponding automatic control levels are different, the results of the same event and the correction frequency of the initial time are different;
finally, the failure rate data of part of equipment can not be comprehensively applied to foreign databases in consideration of practical problems of limited time for putting into operation, incomplete product information of suppliers, diversified structures and the like.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the above problems, an object of the present invention is to provide an oil and gas pipeline risk and risk assessment system, which further verifies the validity and independence of the existing protection measures, ensures that the risk can be effectively identified, and can avoid both under-protection caused by insufficient analysis and potential risk consequences caused by introducing new risk points into production operation by over-protection.
The invention provides an oil and gas pipeline danger and risk assessment system, which comprises:
a risk criterion determination module for determining a risk tolerable criterion for the item under evaluation;
the risk point and control point identification module is used for identifying risk points and important control points existing in the evaluated project;
the scene identification and screening module is used for identifying and screening different scenes of each risk point in the evaluated project;
the result and severity evaluation module is used for evaluating the result and severity triggered by the potential initial event in the evaluated project;
an initial event confirmation module for confirming an initial event already existing in the evaluated item;
a protective layer and independent protective layer evaluation module for identifying an independent protective layer in an evaluated project;
the scene frequency calculation module is used for calculating the consequence occurrence frequency of the scene corresponding to the risk point in the evaluated project;
and the risk evaluation suggestion module compares the calculation frequency obtained by the scene frequency calculation module with a tolerable standard, obtains the risk of the evaluated project and provides corresponding improvement measures.
As a further improvement of the invention, the risk point and control point identification module is combined with HAZOP analysis and protection layer setting characteristics of field operation of an evaluated project to identify the risk points of different functional partitions of the oil and gas transmission pipeline and identify important control points according to field drawings, process descriptions and designer experience.
As a further improvement of the invention, the scene identification and screening module identifies different scenes of each risk point one by one according to the oil and gas pipeline functional area and the flow thereof in the scene screening process, checks different operations and equipment in the flow of the functional area where the risk point is located, and forms a reason and an effect pair by multiple reasons causing the same risk point and corresponding effects as the scene for analyzing the risk point.
As a further improvement of the invention, the consequence and severity evaluation module evaluates the severity of the consequences triggered by the initial event before risk and risk evaluation, and the evaluation result for characterizing the severity of the consequences is in accordance with the risk tolerable standard determined by the risk standard determination module.
As a further improvement of the invention, the scene frequency calculation module calculates the frequency of the scene consequences according to the initial event occurrence frequency multiplied by the dangerous failure probability when all the independent protection layers are required.
As a further improvement of the present invention, the scene frequency calculation formula includes:
the frequency of the single scene consequence is calculated by the formula
In the formula (f)i CThe frequency of the consequences C for the initial event i, in units of times/year; f. ofi IIs the occurrence of an initial event iFrequency in units of times/year; pi EProbability of occurrence of an enabling event or enabling condition; pi CIs a conditional correction factor; PFDijThe probability of dangerous failure is the requirement of the independent protective layer of the jth stopping consequence C in the initial event i;
the result occurrence frequency of the composite scene is calculated by the formula
In the formula (f)CThe frequency of the current analysis risk point generating the consequence C is expressed in times/year; f. ofiThe initial event occurrence frequency of the scene i is shown as times/year; pi EProbability of occurrence of an enabling event or enabling condition; PFDijThe probability of dangerous failure is the requirement of the jth protective layer in the initial event of the initiating scene i; pi CIs a conditional correction factor; PFDkAnd the k-th independent protective layer or the non-independent protective layer shared by all scenes of the risk point is required to have dangerous failure probability.
As a further improvement of the present invention, the comparison method of the risk assessment recommendation module is: when the calculation frequency is less than the tolerable evaluation rate, the risk of the selected risk point is acceptable, and the risk and risk evaluation of the next risk point are continued; when the calculated frequency is greater than the tolerable rate, the action to be taken to meet the acceptable frequency is recommended and the average probability of failure of the action to be taken or the SIL level of the function of the proposed safety instrument is determined to reduce the risk to a tolerable level.
The invention has the beneficial effects that: and the deep and orderly development of the danger and risk assessment activities of the oil and gas pipeline is ensured. In the actual evaluation process, the conveying process of the oil and gas pipeline, the HSE system file, the management mode and the equipment operation data condition are fully combined, all the steps in the method are refined one by one, and a set of risk and risk evaluation method suitable for the oil and gas pipeline is formed.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a block diagram of an oil and gas pipeline risk and risk assessment system according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The present invention will be described in further detail below with reference to specific embodiments and with reference to the attached drawings.
As shown in fig. 1, an embodiment of the present invention provides an oil and gas pipeline risk and risk assessment system, which includes:
a risk criterion determination module for determining a risk tolerable criterion for the item under evaluation;
the risk point and control point identification module is used for identifying risk points and important control points existing in the evaluated project;
the scene identification and screening module is used for identifying and screening different scenes of each risk point in the evaluated project;
the result and severity evaluation module is used for evaluating the result and severity triggered by the potential initial event in the evaluated project;
an initial event confirmation module for confirming an initial event already existing in the evaluated item;
a protective layer and independent protective layer evaluation module for validating an independent protective layer in an evaluated project and assigning a risk potential to the identified independent protective layer;
the scene frequency calculation module is used for calculating the consequence occurrence frequency of the scene corresponding to the risk point in the evaluated project;
and the risk evaluation suggestion module compares the calculation frequency obtained by the scene frequency calculation module with a tolerable standard, obtains the risk of the evaluated project and provides corresponding improvement measures.
Further, the risk point and control point identification module is used for identifying the risk points of different functional partitions of the oil and gas transmission pipeline by combining HAZOP analysis and protection layer setting characteristics of field operation of an evaluated project, and identifying important control points according to field drawings, process descriptions and experience of designers.
Identifying medium and high risk points of the main process system of each station according to the HAZOP report, and identifying important control points according to site drawings, process descriptions and experience of designers; in the identification process, the risk points and the important control points cover the medium and high risk points of all process systems of the station so as to evaluate the overall situation and realize strict risk identification.
Furthermore, in the scene screening process, the scene identification and screening module identifies different scenes of each risk point one by one according to the oil and gas pipeline functional area and the flow thereof, checks different operations and equipment in the flow of the functional area where the risk point is located, and forms multiple reasons causing the same risk point and corresponding consequences into reason and consequence pairs as scenes for analyzing the risk point.
Further, the consequence and severity evaluation module evaluates the severity of the consequences triggered by the initial event before risk and risk evaluation, and the evaluation result representing the severity of the consequences should meet the risk tolerable standard determined by the risk standard determination module.
According to the relevant standards, the description of the influence classification and the severity of the consequences of different companies is determined, only direct loss in the consequences is realized for the oil and gas station, and the consequences and the corresponding severity can be described according to risks generated in the aspects of personnel, economy, environment and reputation.
Further, the principle of the initial event confirmation module confirming the initial event includes:
firstly, examining all reasons in a scene, and determining that the initial event is a valid initial event;
second, all potential initial events that have been identified should be confirmed and guaranteed to be non-exhaustive;
thirdly, each cause is subdivided into separate initial events to identify separate protective layers or precautions;
fourth, in identifying potential initial events, it should be ensured that initial events in all operating modes and device states have been identified and reviewed;
fifthly, when the failure of the person is taken as an initial event, a unified rule for evaluating the error probability of the person is formulated and strictly executed during analysis;
sixth, operator training is incomplete, testing or inspection is incomplete, and protection devices are not available as an initial event.
Further, the independent protective layer satisfies the following condition:
first, effectiveness: function according to the designed function, and must effectively prevent the consequences;
second, independence: a constituent element of a separate protective layer that is independent of the initial event and any other already considered to be the same scene;
and thirdly, performing the operation. Auditability: and verifying the effectiveness of the tissue consequence and the dangerous failure probability. The audit program should confirm that if the independent protective layer is functioning as designed, it will effectively prevent the consequences. The individual protective layers are identified and assigned a contingency capability for the identified individual protective layers. When the protective layer satisfies the above three requirements, it is identified as an independent protective layer.
Further, the scene frequency calculating module is used for calculating the frequency of the scene consequences according to the initial event occurrence frequency multiplied by the dangerous failure probability when all the independent protective layers are required.
Further, the scene frequency calculating module is used for calculating the frequency of the scene consequences according to the initial event occurrence frequency multiplied by the dangerous failure probability when all the independent protective layers are required.
Further, the scene frequency calculation formula includes:
the frequency of the single scene consequence is calculated by the formula
In the formula (f)i CThe frequency of the consequences C for the initial event i, in units of times/year; f. ofi IThe occurrence frequency of the initial event i is shown in units of times/year; pi EProbability of occurrence of an enabling event or enabling condition; pi CIs a conditional correction factor; PFDijThe probability of dangerous failure is the requirement of the independent protective layer of the jth stopping consequence C in the initial event i;
the result occurrence frequency of the composite scene is calculated by the formula
In the formula (f)CThe frequency of the current analysis risk point generating the consequence C is expressed in times/year; f. ofiThe initial event occurrence frequency of the scene i is shown as times/year; pi EProbability of occurrence of an enabling event or enabling condition; PFDijThe probability of dangerous failure is the requirement of the jth protective layer in the initial event of the initiating scene i; pi CIs a conditional correction factor; PFDkAnd the k-th independent protective layer or the non-independent protective layer shared by all scenes of the risk point is required to have dangerous failure probability.
And calculating the frequency of the scene consequences according to the initial event occurrence frequency multiplied by the dangerous failure probability when all the independent protective layers are required. When in frequency calculation, the following two coefficients are selectively used for correction according to specific conditions; if the occurrence of the scene needs the enabling event or the enabling condition, multiplying the occurrence probability of the enabling event or the enabling condition; if the frequency of the subsequent consequences after the release of the hazardous substances needs to be calculated, the conditional correction factor needs to be multiplied. If no event or enabling condition is enabled, Pi ETaking 1; if there is no conditional correction, Pi C1 is taken.
For the calculation of the occurrence frequency of the composite scene consequence, all related scenes, initial events and corresponding individual protection measures of the current risk point need to be analyzed, the frequencies are added to obtain the composite scene frequency, and then the composite scene frequency is multiplied by the condition correction and the shared independent protective layer and the shared dependent protective layer to obtain the occurrence frequency of the risk point consequence.
Further, the comparison method of the risk assessment suggestion module is as follows: when the calculation frequency is less than the tolerable evaluation rate, the risk of the selected risk point is acceptable, and the risk and risk evaluation of the next risk point are continued; when the calculated frequency is greater than the tolerable rate, the action to be taken to meet the acceptable frequency is recommended and the average probability of failure of the action to be taken or the SIL level of the function of the proposed safety instrument is determined to reduce the risk to a tolerable level.
The invention enables the risk and risk assessment of the oil and gas pipeline to be more standardized and modularized, and improves the safety and reliability of station operation. The method is not only suitable for process stations and valve chambers, but also suitable for risk and risk analysis of skid forming equipment and integrated equipment with higher complexity (such as gas-liquid linkage valves, pneumatic valves and electro-hydraulic linkage valves).
The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention, and various modifications and changes may be made by those skilled in the art. Any modification, equivalent replacement, or improvement made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (7)
1. An oil and gas pipeline risk and risk assessment system, comprising:
a risk criterion determination module for determining a risk tolerable criterion for the item under evaluation;
the risk point and control point identification module is used for identifying risk points and important control points existing in the evaluated project;
the scene identification and screening module is used for identifying and screening different scenes of each risk point in the evaluated project;
the result and severity evaluation module is used for evaluating the result and severity triggered by the potential initial event in the evaluated project;
an initial event confirmation module for confirming an initial event already existing in the evaluated item;
a protective layer and independent protective layer evaluation module for identifying an independent protective layer in an evaluated project;
the scene frequency calculation module is used for calculating the consequence occurrence frequency of the scene corresponding to the risk point in the evaluated project;
and the risk evaluation suggestion module compares the calculation frequency obtained by the scene frequency calculation module with a tolerable standard, obtains the risk of the evaluated project and provides corresponding improvement measures.
2. The system for risk and risk assessment of oil and gas pipelines according to claim 1, wherein said risk point and control point identification module identifies risk points of different functional partitions of the oil and gas pipelines in combination with HAZOP analysis and protective layer setting characteristics of field operations of the project being assessed, and identifies important control points according to field drawings, process specifications and designer experience.
3. The system for evaluating the risk and danger of an oil and gas pipeline according to claim 1, wherein the scene recognition and screening module recognizes different scenes of each risk point one by one according to the oil and gas pipeline functional area and the flow thereof in the scene screening process, checks different operations and equipment in the flow of the functional area where the risk point is located, and forms a reason and an effect pair with multiple reasons causing the same risk point and corresponding effects as the scene for analyzing the risk point.
4. The hydrocarbon pipeline risk and danger assessment system according to claim 1, wherein said consequence and severity assessment module assesses the severity of the consequences triggered by the initial event prior to risk and risk assessment, the assessment results characterizing the severity of the consequences meeting the risk tolerance criteria determined by said risk criteria determination module.
5. The hydrocarbon pipeline risk and danger assessment system of claim 1, wherein the scenario frequency calculation module calculates the frequency of scenario consequences based on the initial event occurrence frequency multiplied by the probability of catastrophic failure when required by all independent protective layers.
6. The hydrocarbon pipeline hazard and risk assessment system of claim 5, wherein said scene frequency calculation formula comprises:
the frequency of the single scene consequence is calculated by the formula
In the formula (f)i CThe frequency of the consequences C for the initial event i, in units of times/year; f. ofi IThe occurrence frequency of the initial event i is shown in units of times/year; pi EProbability of occurrence of an enabling event or enabling condition; pi CIs a conditional correction factor; PFDijThe probability of dangerous failure is the requirement of the independent protective layer of the jth stopping consequence C in the initial event i;
the result occurrence frequency of the composite scene is calculated by the formula
In the formula (f)CThe frequency of the current analysis risk point generating the consequence C is expressed in times/year; f. ofiThe initial event occurrence frequency of the scene i is shown as times/year; pi EProbability of occurrence of an enabling event or enabling condition; PFDijThe probability of dangerous failure is the requirement of the jth protective layer in the initial event of the initiating scene i; pi CIs a conditional correction factor; PFDkAnd the k-th independent protective layer or the non-independent protective layer shared by all scenes of the risk point is required to have dangerous failure probability.
7. The hydrocarbon pipeline risk and risk assessment system of claim 1, wherein the comparison method of the risk assessment advice module is: when the calculation frequency is less than the tolerable evaluation rate, the risk of the selected risk point is acceptable, and the risk and risk evaluation of the next risk point are continued; when the calculated frequency is greater than the tolerable rate, the action to be taken to meet the acceptable frequency is recommended and the average probability of failure of the action to be taken or the SIL level of the function of the proposed safety instrument is determined to reduce the risk to a tolerable level.
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Cited By (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN115982960A (en) * | 2022-12-08 | 2023-04-18 | 国家管网集团北方管道有限责任公司 | Intelligent risk prevention and control capability evaluation method for pipeline oil transportation station |
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| US20090070170A1 (en) * | 2007-09-12 | 2009-03-12 | Krishnamurthy Natarajan | System and method for risk assessment and management |
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US20070271198A1 (en) * | 2006-05-19 | 2007-11-22 | Accenture Global Services Gmbh | Semi-quantitative risk analysis |
| US20090070170A1 (en) * | 2007-09-12 | 2009-03-12 | Krishnamurthy Natarajan | System and method for risk assessment and management |
Non-Patent Citations (1)
| Title |
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| 曹喜文;张伟伟;时婷婷;: "HAZOP分析结合LOPA分析方法在长输管道站场的应用研究", 当代化工, vol. 45, no. 08, 5 September 2016 (2016-09-05), pages 1918 - 1919 * |
Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN115982960A (en) * | 2022-12-08 | 2023-04-18 | 国家管网集团北方管道有限责任公司 | Intelligent risk prevention and control capability evaluation method for pipeline oil transportation station |
| CN115982960B (en) * | 2022-12-08 | 2023-09-01 | 国家管网集团北方管道有限责任公司 | Intelligent risk prevention and control capability evaluation method for pipeline oil delivery station |
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