CN110866591B - Method for carrying out prospective cloud manufacturing service lease configuration based on demand prediction - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for carrying out prospective cloud manufacturing service lease configuration based on demand prediction, which comprises the following innovation contents: 1) Formally constructing a model of manufacturing service and manufacturing task and a cloud service mode thereof; 2) Providing an analysis method of the user task order, and classifying based on task characteristics; 3) Triggering online scheduling by a set order number threshold value based on actual order demands and virtual predicted order demands; 4) Predicting the demand of the short-term virtual order based on an LSTM model, and combining the demand with an actual order to perform optimized scheduling; 5) And designing a corresponding optimized scheduling engine, and determining the resource service optimized lease configuration of the virtual and real order tasks of the scheduling window. The method has the specific effects of fast order demand response of the user, short enterprise decision time and high comprehensive quality of cloud platform service matching and leasing.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a cloud manufacturing service leasing method, in particular to a method for scheduling manufacturing tasks by combining an LSTM (Long Short Term Memory) model to carry out demand prediction, so as to further configure cloud manufacturing service leasing.
Background
As an advanced manufacturing mode oriented to manufacturing services, cloud manufacturing is based on technologies such as information technology, internet of things, virtualization and cloud computing, and achieves virtualization and service of manufacturing resources. The service demander can apply for using the cloud-end manufacturing service at any time according to the requirement, and describe the requirement as a manufacturing task to be distributed on the platform; service providers share their manufacturing resources and manufacturing capabilities in the form of services through the virtualization encapsulation techniques provided by the platform.
As the complexity of cloud manufacturing requirements increases, simple manufacturing service configuration rentals have failed to meet the requirements of customers in terms of construction period, quality, cost, etc., and cloud platforms need to better meet the requirements of a large number of users through advanced service rental configuration methods.
The cloud manufacturing platform collects scattered manufacturing services, and the user is required to use the corresponding services in a renting mode through related modules. In a cloud manufacturing environment, lease configuration of a manufacturing service refers to a process of mapping a manufacturing task requirement to a corresponding manufacturing service for processing. The processing of the manufacturing task requires a certain amount of time and capacity to be occupied on specific service resources, and the different manufacturing service providers have different capacities of service resources and different lease states thereof, which results in different capacities of manufacturing tasks that can be assumed by the different manufacturing service providers. Thus, the cloud platform needs to dynamically optimize the orchestration rental service to meet the needs of numerous manufacturing tasks. The reasonable service lease configuration not only meets the requirements of a demand side on minimizing lease cost, maximizing service use effectiveness, minimizing task delay value and the like, but also considers the uncertainty of service available capacity.
Disclosure of Invention
The essence of the reasonable lease service problem on the cloud platform is a comprehensive optimization scheduling problem of a plurality of groups of parallel resources, generally, a workload-based analysis method can be adopted, a corresponding optimization model is established to solve by taking service utility, service quality, service cost and the like as targets, and then each task is optimized and arranged to a corresponding resource point according to a result. The method has higher real-time requirement, and the solution of the method depends on a solution algorithm capable of responding quickly, such as a scheduling result prediction method based on improved learning rate. For a single customer, the irregular generation of demand is a mode of cloud platform manufacturing task arrival, such as periodic ordering plans and the like. This is an extended resource constrained scheduling problem, subject to the capacity available for the manufacturing service. However, in a cloud manufacturing environment, the uncertainty of different task requirements of a plurality of clients and the diversity of task structures of the clients increase the decision difficulty of the problem, and the traditional global optimization model and the corresponding algorithm are not applicable any more.
The invention aims to provide efficient and quick cloud manufacturing service lease configuration so as to improve the resource utilization rate and the satisfaction degree of a user. However, at present, cloud manufacturing services do not have a satisfactory service model and a corresponding usage mode, and it is difficult to apply and verify the effect.
Determining the service lease configuration of an order by a cloud manufacturing platform faces the following technical problem in 4 respects:
1) Modeling a cloud manufacturing service mode, wherein the modeling comprises the expression of manufacturing tasks and manufacturing resources and service lease configuration;
2) A trigger method of a service lease configuration decision maker;
3) A training method of a demand prediction model for assisting a lease decision;
4) A method for on-line task scheduling.
In order to solve the technical problems, the technical scheme adopted by the invention is as follows:
a method for carrying out prospective cloud manufacturing service lease configuration based on demand prediction comprises the following steps:
(1) Building a model of manufacturing services and manufacturing tasks;
(2) Analyzing the manufacturing tasks released by the users, classifying the released manufacturing tasks according to the service types required by the manufacturing tasks, and placing the manufacturing tasks into waiting queues of the same type of manufacturing servicesAiming at the triggering method of the service lease configuration decision maker, the invention adopts a double judgment criterion based on the waiting queue capacity and the waiting interval duration as a decision triggering method. Specifically, as shown in fig. 4, the decision-maker will enable the sub-routine of listening to the arriving MT, and the arriving MT will enter the corresponding MS according to the type of MS it needsWait queueIf the decision time of the previous time is tlastThe current time is tcurrentIf t is satisfiedcurrent-tlastIf the time is more than or equal to delta T, immediately executing a scheduling decision, wherein the delta T represents a set time interval threshold; when a decision is triggered, if the queue is currently waitingCapacity of (2)Then, a scheduling decision is immediately made, i.e. go to step (4), where NτIndicating a queue capacity threshold, and if a decision is triggered,turning to the step (3);
(3) Calling a trained LSTM-based demand forecasting module to generate short-term virtual order demandsMerging with waiting queue into scheduling decision queue
(4) And the decision maker determines the lease configuration of each task in the queue through the scheduling engine and summarizes and outputs the lease configuration.
Specifically, the method comprises the following steps:
(1) And aiming at cloud manufacturing service mode modeling, mathematical models of manufacturing tasks and manufacturing services are respectively established. A manufacturing task is a manifestation of customer demand and requires a certain amount of time and capacity to be handled by the corresponding manufacturing service. The manufacturing task of customer j issued to the platform s-th time is marked as MT (j, s), and the complete attribute composition is shown as the tuple of formula (1), including the submission timeConstruction periodRequired capacityType of service requiredRequired processing time pjAnd the like. For a particular MT (j, s), the values of the attributes in the tuple are static.
Wherein the content of the first and second substances,representing a set of customer numbers. The manufacturing service is a task processing unit of the cloud manufacturing platform and is formed by virtualizing and packaging manufacturing resource capacities from different enterprises. The manufacturing service registered by the manufacturing service provider i on the platform is denoted as MS (i), and is composed of the maximum rentable capacity KiService type phiiUnit rental fee CiService utility factor PiWaiting to process task queue Q at time ti(t) and set of tasks being processedAnd (3) the tuple composed of the equal attributes is represented as formula (2). Except for Qi(t) andexcept for the time variable, the other attributes are static values.
Wherein the content of the first and second substances,representing a set of service provider numbers. Taking the MT with the number j issued to the platform s for the second time as an example, the manufacturing service lease configuration refers to the cloud platform determining the MS (i) used by the MT (j, s) processing and the start-stop time and the service occupation amount thereof. Satisfying type matching conditions according to MT (j, s) configurationMS (i), i.e. at the start-stop time [ b ]j,i,ej,i) And the interval occupies part of the service capacity of the MS (i), and meets the type matching and processing time length constraints (3) - (4).
Wherein, the first and the second end of the pipe are connected with each other,indicating a predicate function, i.e., a value of 1 when the condition is satisfied and 0 otherwise.
(3) Aiming at the training method of the demand prediction model for assisting the leasing decision, the invention adopts a method of moving a window to normalize the input and output patterns required by the LSTM model. Specifically, taking customer j as an example, the platform collects MT related data periodically published to the platform, and takes the number of publication times s as a step amount, and considers the corresponding MS demand capacity as sequence data listed in equation (5).
In order to import the sampled sequence data into the LSTM model, data transformation by a moving window method is required. The sequence data is moved to the right by w time units each time by taking a window with a fixed size as a unit, and input original data is integrated into (6) to be used as an input and output data unit of the model.
Where t represents a time window sequence number. Because the prediction problem in the invention does not belong to the classification problem, and the outputs have the same importance degree, the mean square error is used as a loss function of the prediction model training, and the RMSProp optimization algorithm is used for optimizing the gradient descent process.
According to the invention, the manufacturing service capacity demand is predicted by collecting service capacity demand historical data and building an LSTM prediction model based on Tensorflow 1.2.1, and the trained LSTM model can be used for demand prediction.
(4) For the method of efficient online application scheduling, the present invention first determines the optimization objectives in terms of 3, respectively representing cost, service utility, task delay, etc., as shown in (7) - (9). Wherein, the first and the second end of the pipe are connected with each other,andthe lease cost, service utility and delay value of the MT (j, s) are respectively expressed.
For each MT (j, s), the service lease cost can be expressed as equation (10), i.e., the product of the lease duration, capacity and its unit price of the selected MS.
Obtaining quality services, similar to service rental costs, is also an important optimization goal to attract customers. For each MT, the usage utility of the MS after completion thereof can be expressed as formula (11), i.e., the usage utility of the selected MS.
Lower task latency is an important indicator of meeting customer demand, the value of which is related to the outcome of the service lease configuration. For each MT, the overdue amount is a time interval beyond the contracted period, and can be represented by (12).
Decision vector y(τ)By aggregation of decision task queuesAnd (5) a decision variable (14) related to the MT, which represents the starting processing time of the MT (j, s).
Wherein the content of the first and second substances,indicating that MT (j, s) selects the decision variable to process on MS (i). As such, for a set of decision task queuesThe optimization objective for the manufacturing service rental configuration may be represented as (15).
The method is a multi-objective optimization problem, needs to consider factors in 3 aspects at the same time, can establish a constraint planning model, and calls a mature solver to solve. Obtained by solvingAnd required capacity for attributes of MTI.e. the rental configuration of the service. Can be invoked byThe CP Optimizer 12.7.0.0 engine does the solution of the service lease configuration.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following effects:
(1) The cloud manufacturing service mode is normalized, a general modeling method is adopted to model a manufacturing task, a manufacturing service and a trigger flow, and practical application of the manufacturing service is realized;
(2) Through demand forecasting, service providing enterprises can pre-judge the short-term future resource capacity condition and perform comprehensive optimized resource scheduling;
(3) The event-driven manufacturing service lease configuration method provides a quick decision method for each manufacturing service provider, can reduce the service lease cost on the whole, improves the service use utility and reduces the delay rate of the undertaken tasks.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a system framework consisting of cloud manufacturing service rental function modules based on the LSTM model;
FIG. 2 manufacturing service rental schematic;
FIG. 3 is a schematic of the moving window used in the LSTM model;
FIG. 4 decision flow of the decision maker;
FIG. 5 selection of parameters for the demand module.
Detailed Description
The technical scheme of the invention is further explained by combining the attached drawings.
The method for carrying out prospective cloud manufacturing service lease configuration based on demand prediction specifically comprises the following steps:
and aiming at cloud manufacturing service mode modeling, mathematical models of manufacturing tasks and manufacturing services are respectively established.
A manufacturing task is a manifestation of customer demand and requires a certain amount of time and capacity to be handled by the corresponding manufacturing service. The manufacturing task of customer j issued to the platform s-th time is marked as MT (j, s), and the complete attribute composition is shown as the tuple of formula (1), including the submission timeConstruction periodRequired capacityType of service requiredRequired processing time pjAnd the like. For a particular MT (j, s), the values of the attributes in the tuple are static.
Wherein the content of the first and second substances,representing a set of customer numbers. The manufacturing service is a task processing unit of the cloud manufacturing platform and is from different enterprisesThe manufacturing resource capability is formed by virtualization and packaging. The manufacturing service registered by the manufacturing service provider i on the platform is denoted as MS (i), and is composed of the maximum rentable capacity KiService type phiiUnit rental fee CiService utility factor PiWaiting for processing task queue Q at time ti(t) and set of tasks being processedAnd the tuple represented by the formula (2) is formed by equal attributes. Except for Qi(t) andexcept for the time variable, the other attributes are static values.
Wherein the content of the first and second substances,representing a set of service provider numbers. Taking the MT with the number j issued to the platform s for the second time as an example, the manufacturing service lease configuration refers to the cloud platform determining the MS (i) used by the MT (j, s) processing and the start-stop time and the service occupation amount thereof. Satisfying type matching conditions according to MT (j, s) configurationMS (i), i.e. at the start-stop time [ b ]j,i,ej,i) And the interval occupies part of the service capacity of the MS (i), and meets the type matching and processing time length constraints (3) - (4).
Wherein the content of the first and second substances,representing a predicate function, i.e., a value of 1 when the condition is satisfied, and 0 otherwise.
Aiming at the triggering method of the service lease configuration decision maker, the invention adopts a double judgment criterion based on the waiting queue capacity and the waiting interval duration as a decision triggering method. Specifically, as shown in fig. 4, the decision device enables the sub-process of listening to the arriving task, and the arriving MT enters the corresponding waiting queue according to the MS type required by the MTIf the decision time of the previous time is tlastThe current time is tcurrentIf t is satisfiedcurrent-tlastIf the time is more than or equal to delta T, immediately executing a scheduling decision, wherein the delta T represents a set time interval threshold; if the current waiting queueCapacity of (2)Then a scheduling decision is immediately executed, where NτIndicating a queue capacity threshold. Wherein, if the decision is triggered,then the trained demand forecasting model needs to be used to generate short-term virtual order demandsAnd combined with the waiting queue into a decision task queue set
Aiming at the training method of the demand prediction model for assisting the leasing decision, the invention adopts a method of moving a window to normalize the input and output patterns required by the LSTM model. Specifically, taking customer j as an example, the platform collects MT-related data periodically distributed to the platform, and takes the distribution number s as a step amount, and considers the corresponding MS demand capacity as sequence data listed in formula (5).
In order to import the sampled sequence data into the LSTM model, data transformation by a moving window method is required. The sequence data is shifted to the right by w time units each time by taking a window with a fixed size as a unit, and input original data is integrated into (6) to be used as an input/output data unit of the model.
Where t represents the time window number. Since the prediction problem in the present invention does not belong to the classification problem, and the outputs have the same importance, the mean square error is used as the loss function of the prediction model training, and the RMSProp optimization algorithm is used to optimize the gradient descent process.
According to the invention, the manufacturing service capacity demand is predicted by collecting service capacity demand historical data and building an LSTM prediction model based on Tensorflow 1.2.1, and the trained LSTM model can be used for demand prediction.
For the method of efficient online application scheduling, the present invention first determines the optimization objectives in terms of 3, respectively representing cost, service utility, task delay, etc., as shown in (7) - (9). Wherein the content of the first and second substances,andthe lease cost, service utility and delay value of the MT (j, s) are respectively expressed.
For each MT (j, s), the service lease cost can be expressed as equation (10), i.e., the product of the lease duration, capacity and its unit price of the selected MS.
Obtaining quality services, similar to service rental costs, is also an important optimization goal to attract customers. For each MT, the usage utility of the MS after completion thereof can be expressed as formula (11), i.e., the usage utility of the selected MS.
Lower task latency is an important indicator of meeting customer demand, and its value is related to the outcome of the service lease configuration. For each MT, its overdue amount is a time interval beyond the contracted period, and can be represented by (12).
Decision vector y(τ)By aggregation of decision task queuesAnd a decision variable (14) related to the MT in the item (m) represents the processing starting time of the MT (j, s).
Wherein the content of the first and second substances,indicating that MT (j, s) selects the decision variable to process on MS (i). As such, for a decision queue task setThe optimization objective for the manufacturing service rental configuration can be represented as (15).
The method is a multi-objective optimization problem, needs to consider factors in 3 aspects at the same time, can establish a constraint planning model, and calls a mature solver to solve. Obtained by solvingAnd required capacity for attributes of MTI.e. the rental configuration of the service. Can be invoked byThe CP Optimizer 12.7.0.0 engine does the solution of the service lease configuration.
FIG. 1 is a system structure based on the method of the present invention, which mainly includes a task issuing system (c), a demand forecasting system (f) and a service lease configuration system (b) 3, and the final service lease configuration result is as shown in FIG. 2, i.e. the task occupies a certain duration and a certain capacity on the selected manufacturing service. Where the demand forecasting system needs to move through a window as shown in fig. 3 as input of sequence data and determine relevant parameters of the model through experiments as shown in fig. 5. The logic flow of the service lease configuration system is shown in fig. 4, wherein the decision-maker uses a module for real-time monitoring task arrival and determines whether to trigger the scheduling flow according to the threshold values of both queue length and time interval.
The real-time specific process of the invention is as follows:
(1) The task issuing system collects manufacturing tasks (a) regularly issued by a demand client in a task pool of the platform;
(2) Entering a waiting queue (d) of a corresponding service type according to the time sequence;
(3) The demand forecasting system forecasts the demands of different series of tasks, and merges the forecasting result and the tasks in the waiting queue into a scheduling decision queue (h);
(4) And (c) triggering the scheduling module (e) by the scheduler through the service lease configuration system, and calculating the service start-stop time (b) of each task in the waiting queue.
For example, the main steps are:
(1) The parameters of the platform are set as follows: the length of the decision queue is 6, and the interval time is 10;
(2) For both tasks MT (1, 1) and MT (1, 2) published to the platform, a type 2 manufacturing service needs to be used. After they are released to the platform, they enter the corresponding waiting queue;
(3) According to the current judgment of the decision maker, determining to carry out demand prediction on the corresponding manufacturing service so as to supplement 4 virtual manufacturing tasks to the corresponding decision queue;
(4) The output manufacturing service rental configuration is configured by invoking a scheduling decision maker integrated within the system to: the MT (1, 2) is scheduled for processing at the MS (1, 1) to a corresponding time window, and the MT (1, 1) is scheduled for processing at the MS (1, 2) to a corresponding time window.
Claims (1)
1. A method for carrying out prospective cloud manufacturing service lease configuration based on demand prediction comprises the following steps:
(1) Building a model of manufacturing services and manufacturing tasks; the method comprises the following specific steps:
(a) Analyzing the required characteristics of each manufacturing task and constructing a corresponding mathematical model
The manufacturing task of the customer j which is released to the platform for the s th time is recorded as MT (j, s), the complete attribute composition is shown as the tuple of the formula (1), and the submission time comprisesConstruction periodRequired capacityType of service requiredRequired processing duration pj(ii) a For a specific MT (j, s), the value of each attribute in the tuple is static;
(b) The manufacturing service is a task processing unit of the cloud manufacturing platform, and is formed by virtualizing and packaging manufacturing resource capacity from different enterprises
The manufacturing service registered by the manufacturing service provider i on the platform is denoted as MS (i), and is composed of the maximum rentable capacity KiService type phiiUnit rental fee CiService utility factor PiWaiting to process task queue Q at time ti(t) and set of tasks being processedAttribute-composed tuple representation as shown in formula (2); except for Qi(t) andexcept for the time variable, the other attributes are static values;
wherein the content of the first and second substances,representing a set of service provider numbers;
(c) On the basis of models of tasks and services, corresponding service configuration models are constructed
Taking the MT with the serial number j issued to the platform s for the second time as an example, the manufacturing service lease configuration means that the cloud platform determines the MS (i) used by the MT (j, s) processing and the start-stop time and the service occupation amount thereof, and meets the type matching condition according to the MT (j, s) configurationMS (i), i.e. at the start-stop time [ b ]j,i,ej,i) The interval occupies part of the service capacity of the MS (i), and meets the type matching and processing time length constraints (3) - (4);
wherein the content of the first and second substances,representing a predicate function, namely the value of the predicate function is 1 when the condition is met, and otherwise, the value of the predicate function is 0;
(2) Analyzing the manufacturing tasks released by the users, classifying the released manufacturing tasks according to the service types required by the manufacturing tasks, and placing the manufacturing tasks into waiting queues of the same type of manufacturing servicesSetting a scheduling trigger mechanism to determine whether to predict the demand:
(a) Adopting a dual threshold design based on time and the number of orders, considering the number of actually waiting tasks in each queue and considering whether the time interval between two decisions is too long or not; specifically, the time-based trigger indicates that the decision time of the previous time is tlastThe current time is tcurrentIf t is satisfiedcurrent-tlastWhen the time is more than or equal to delta T, immediately executing a scheduling decision, wherein the delta T represents a set time interval threshold; when a decision is triggered, if the queue is currently waitingCapacity of (2)Then, a scheduling decision is immediately executed, i.e. go to step (4), where N isτIndicating a queue capacity threshold, and if a decision is triggered,turning to the step (3);
(b) A mode of circularly monitoring task arrival events is adopted, so that the system can effectively run; each arriving task detects whether a decision maker with double thresholds needs to be triggered or not, and then decides whether a decision for demand prediction needs to be made or not;
(3) Invoking a trained LSTM-based demand forecasting module to generate short-term virtual order demandsMerging with a waiting queue into a set of decision task queuesClosing box
(4) The decision maker determines the lease configuration of each task in the queue through a scheduling engine, and summarizes and outputs the lease configuration;
the training method of the LSTM-based demand prediction model in the step (3) is as follows:
(a) Converting the historical service demand capacity into sequence data, specifically, taking a client j as an example, acquiring MT (MT) related data periodically issued to a platform by the platform, taking the issuing times s as a stepping quantity, and regarding the corresponding MS demand capacity as the sequence data listed in a formula (5);
(b) Importing the sampled sequence data into an LSTM model, and performing data conversion by a moving window method; specifically, the sequence data moves to the right for w time units each time by taking a window with a fixed size as a unit, and input original data are integrated into (6) to be used as an input and output data unit of the model;
wherein t represents a time window sequence number; using the mean square error as a loss function of the prediction model training, and using a RMSProp optimization algorithm to optimize the gradient descent process;
the decision method for lease configuration in the step (4) is as follows:
(a) For the method of efficient online application scheduling, first determine the optimization objectives in terms of cost, service utility, and task deferral 3, respectively, as shown in (7) - (9), where,andlease cost, service utility and deferral value for MT (j, s), respectively:
wherein, the first and the second end of the pipe are connected with each other,representing the decision task queue set, for each MT (j, s), the service lease cost can be expressed as equation (10), i.e., the product of lease duration, capacity and its unit price for the selected MS:
similar to the service lease cost, obtaining quality services is also an important optimization objective to attract customers; for each MT, the usage utility of the MS after completion can be expressed as equation (11), i.e., the usage utility of the selected MS:
lower task latency is an important indicator of meeting customer demand, whose value is related to the outcome of the service lease configuration;
for each MT, the overdue amount is a time interval exceeding the contracted period, and can be represented by (12):
(b) Decision vector y(τ)By aggregation of decision task queuesA medium-MT-related decision variable (14) component, indicating the processing start time of the MT (j, s):
wherein, the first and the second end of the pipe are connected with each other,a decision variable indicating that the MT (j, s) selects for processing on the MS (i); as such, for a set of decision task queuesThe optimization objective for the manufacturing service rental configuration can be expressed as (15):
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