CN110728465A - Risk assessment method for island desalination water body under typhoon action - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention provides an island desalination water body risk assessment method under the action of typhoon, which comprises the following steps: taking the maximum wind speed of typhoon and the absolute value of the tidal surge and water increment of typhoon as single risk indexes; acquiring the maximum wind speed and the absolute value of the storm surge water increment of the evaluated typhoon scene; establishing a single index conversion function, and converting the maximum wind speed and the absolute value of the storm surge water increase of the typhoon scene to obtain a maximum wind speed absolute value conversion function value and a storm surge water increase absolute value conversion function value; setting a reference sequence, calculating the correlation coefficient of each single conversion function value sequence and the reference sequence, and calculating the correlation degree according to each single index correlation coefficient; and determining the comprehensive index evaluation risk index grade according to the relevance. The influence of the maximum wind speed of two important indexes representing typhoon and the absolute value of the typhoon storm surge water increment on the risk of island water desalination is fully considered.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of risk assessment, in particular to a risk assessment method for island water desalination of a reef under the action of typhoon.
Background
The island reef desalination water body is formed under the combined action of abundant atmospheric precipitation, special coral geology and light salt water specific gravity difference, and coral island reefs with certain widths are possible to form desalination water bodies. If the water quality can reach the irrigation water standard, the ecological floating island can be used for resident living, greening, livestock breeding, island forestation and the like, and the life quality of residents on the island can be fundamentally improved; even industrial and agricultural development provides important basic conditions. Factors influencing the formation of the desalinated water body mainly include hydrogeological characteristics (permeability distribution, development conditions of cracks, pores and karst caves, unconformity depth and the like). Strong wind, rainstorm, storm surge and sea wave in the typhoon generating process are disaster factors and cause severe change of sea level, thereby influencing the island reef to desalt water. The disaster intensity can be evaluated by strong wind and rainstorm besides being measured by frequency.
Disclosure of Invention
The object of the present invention is to solve at least one of the technical drawbacks mentioned.
Therefore, the invention aims to provide a risk assessment method for the island desalination water body under the typhoon action.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention provides an island desalination water body risk assessment method under the action of typhoon, which comprises the following steps:
step S1, taking the maximum wind speed of typhoon and the absolute value of the tidal surge and the water increment of typhoon as single risk indexes, and setting the grade standard of the single risk indexes;
step S2, obtaining the absolute values of the maximum wind speed and the storm surge water increment of the evaluated typhoon scene, and respectively determining the grade of the absolute value of the maximum wind speed and the storm surge water increment of the evaluated typhoon scene according to the single risk index grade standard;
step S3, establishing a single index conversion function, and converting the maximum wind speed and the absolute value of the storm surge water increment of the typhoon scene to obtain a maximum wind speed absolute value conversion function value and a storm surge water increment absolute value conversion function value, so that the value range of the maximum wind speed absolute value conversion function value and the storm surge water increment absolute value conversion function value is (0, 1);
step S4, setting a reference sequence, calculating the correlation coefficient of each single conversion function value sequence and the reference sequence, and calculating the correlation degree according to each single index correlation coefficient;
and step S5, determining the comprehensive index evaluation risk index grade according to the relevance.
Further, in step S1, the setting of the individual risk indicator level criteria includes the following steps:
the risk indicators are divided into 5 grades according to each single statistical indicator, including: extremely dangerous, highly dangerous, obvious dangerous, general dangerous, rare danger, different statistical indexes correspond different calamity grades.
Further, in the step S3, a conversion function of the maximum wind speed is established according to the following formula, and the maximum wind speed absolute value conversion function value is calculated:
wherein, UZIs the conversion function value of the absolute value of the water increase amount of storm surge; x is the absolute value of the water increase amount of storm surge; lg is the logarithm of base 10X.
Further, in the step S3, a storm surge water gain absolute value conversion function is established according to the following formula, and the storm surge water gain absolute value conversion function value is calculated:
wherein, UZIs the conversion function value of the absolute value of the water increase amount of storm surge; x is the absolute value of the water increase amount of storm surge; lg is the logarithm of base 10X.
Further, in the step S4, the correlation coefficient λ of the maximum wind speed and the storm surge water volume is calculated according to the following formulawAnd λZAre respectively as
Wherein, Deltaw＝|Uow-Uw|；ΔZ＝|UoZ-UZ|；UOwAnd UOZRespectively are reference values of a maximum wind speed absolute value and a storm surge water increment absolute value; u shapewAnd UZThe comparison value is the conversion function value of the absolute value of the maximum wind speed and the absolute value of the water increasing amount of the storm surge.
Further, in the step S4, the calculated degree of association is calculated according to the following formula:
wherein, alpha is the degree of association, lambdawAnd λZThe correlation coefficients of the maximum wind speed and the storm surge water increment are respectively.
Further, in step S5, the determining a comprehensive index evaluation risk index level according to the relevance degree includes: and comparing the calculated association degree with a preset comprehensive index judgment risk index grade table to match and determine the comprehensive index judgment risk index grade corresponding to the association degree.
The invention discloses an island reef desalination water risk assessment method under the action of typhoon, which fully considers the influence of the maximum wind speed of two important indexes representing typhoon and the absolute value of the typhoon storm surge water increment on the island reef desalination water risk, and provides a new method for island reef desalination water risk assessment under the action of typhoon. The method theoretically fills the blank of risk assessment of island desalination water under the typhoon effect, and has important scientific value and practical significance.
Additional aspects and advantages of the invention will be set forth in part in the description which follows and, in part, will be obvious from the description, or may be learned by practice of the invention.
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The above and/or additional aspects and advantages of the present invention will become apparent and readily appreciated from the following description of the embodiments, taken in conjunction with the accompanying drawings of which:
fig. 1 is a flow chart of a risk assessment method for an island desalination water body under the action of typhoon according to an embodiment of the invention.
Detailed Description
Reference will now be made in detail to embodiments of the present invention, examples of which are illustrated in the accompanying drawings, wherein like or similar reference numerals refer to the same or similar elements or elements having the same or similar function throughout. The embodiments described below with reference to the drawings are illustrative and intended to be illustrative of the invention and are not to be construed as limiting the invention.
The invention provides a risk assessment method for island desalination water under the action of typhoon, which can be used for assessing the risk level of typhoon on to island desalination water.
As shown in fig. 1, the method for evaluating the risk of desalinating water bodies in the south sea island reef under the action of typhoon in the embodiment of the invention comprises the following steps:
and step S1, taking the maximum wind speed of the typhoon and the absolute value of the tidal surge and the water increment of the typhoon as single risk indexes, and setting the grade standard of the single risk indexes.
In this step, a single risk indicator grade standard is set, which includes the following steps:
the risk indicators are divided into 5 grades according to each single statistical indicator, including: extremely dangerous, highly dangerous, obvious dangerous, general dangerous, rare danger, different statistical indexes correspond different calamity grades.
In this step, different statistical indicators correspond to different disaster levels, as shown in table 1.
TABLE 1 Single index rating standards
And step S2, acquiring absolute values of the maximum wind speed and the storm surge water increment of the evaluated typhoon scene, and respectively determining the grade of the absolute value of the maximum wind speed and the storm surge water increment of the evaluated typhoon scene according to the single risk index grade standard.
Step S3, establishing a single index conversion function, and converting the maximum wind speed and the absolute value of the storm surge water increment of the typhoon scene to obtain a maximum wind speed absolute value conversion function value and a storm surge water increment absolute value conversion function value, so that the value range of the maximum wind speed absolute value conversion function value and the storm surge water increment absolute value conversion function value is (0, 1). The corresponding relationship between the single index grade and the single conversion function value is shown in table 2.
Specifically, a maximum wind speed conversion function is established according to the following formula, and a maximum wind speed absolute value conversion function value is calculated:
wherein, UwIs the conversion function value of the absolute value of the maximum wind speed; x is the absolute value of the maximum wind speed, and the unit is meter/second; lg is the logarithm of base 10X.
Establishing a conversion function of the absolute value of the storm surge water increment according to the following formula, and calculating the conversion function value of the absolute value of the storm surge water increment:
wherein, UZIs the conversion function value of the absolute value of the water increase amount of storm surge; x is the absolute value of the water increment of storm surge, and the unit is millimeter; lg is the logarithm of base 10X.
TABLE 2 corresponding relationship between single index grade and single conversion function value
And matching the maximum wind speed absolute value conversion function value and the storm surge water increment absolute value conversion function value obtained by calculation with the grade relation in the table 2 to determine the index grade.
Step S4, setting a reference sequence with reference to the gray correlation analysis method, calculating a correlation coefficient between each of the one-way conversion function value sequences and the reference sequence, making each of the index sequences dimensionless, and calculating a correlation degree according to each of the one-way index correlation coefficients.
In the step, the correlation coefficient lambda of the maximum wind speed and the storm surge water increment is calculatedwAnd λZThe method comprises the following steps:
wherein, Deltaw＝|Uow-Uw|；ΔZ＝|UoZ-UZ|；UOwAnd UOZRespectively the absolute value of the maximum wind speed and the absolute value of the storm surge water increment of the south China sea (the maximum wind speed is 200 m/s, and the storm surge water increment is 250 mm); u shapewAnd UZThe comparison value is the conversion function value of the absolute value of the maximum wind speed and the absolute value of the water increasing amount of the storm surge.
The degree of association is then calculated according to the following equation:
wherein, alpha is the degree of association, lambdawAnd λZThe correlation coefficients of the maximum wind speed and the storm surge water increment are respectively.
And step S5, determining the comprehensive index evaluation risk index grade according to the association degree.
Specifically, determining the comprehensive index evaluation risk index grade according to the relevance: and comparing the calculated association degree with a preset comprehensive index judgment risk index grade table (shown in table 3) to match and determine the comprehensive index judgment risk index grade corresponding to the association degree.
TABLE 3 comprehensive index rating
According to the method for evaluating the risk of the water desalination of the south sea island under the typhoon effect, the influence of the maximum wind speed of two important indexes representing the typhoon and the absolute value of the water increment of the storm surge of the typhoon on the risk of the water desalination of the island is fully considered, and a novel method for evaluating the risk of the water desalination of the island under the typhoon effect is provided. The method theoretically fills the blank of risk assessment of island desalination water under the typhoon effect, and has important scientific value and practical significance.
In the description herein, references to the description of the term "one embodiment," "some embodiments," "an example," "a specific example," or "some examples," etc., mean that a particular feature, structure, material, or characteristic described in connection with the embodiment or example is included in at least one embodiment or example of the invention. In this specification, the schematic representations of the terms used above do not necessarily refer to the same embodiment or example. Furthermore, the particular features, structures, materials, or characteristics described may be combined in any suitable manner in any one or more embodiments or examples.
Although embodiments of the present invention have been shown and described above, it is understood that the above embodiments are exemplary and should not be construed as limiting the present invention, and that variations, modifications, substitutions and alterations can be made in the above embodiments by those of ordinary skill in the art without departing from the principle and spirit of the present invention. The scope of the invention is defined by the appended claims and equivalents thereof.
Claims (7)
1. An island reef desalination water body risk assessment method under the action of typhoon is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step S1, taking the maximum wind speed of typhoon and the absolute value of the tidal surge and the water increment of typhoon as single risk indexes, and setting the grade standard of the single risk indexes;
step S2, obtaining the absolute values of the maximum wind speed and the storm surge water increment of the evaluated typhoon scene, and respectively determining the grade of the absolute value of the maximum wind speed and the storm surge water increment of the evaluated typhoon scene according to the single risk index grade standard;
step S3, establishing a single index conversion function, and converting the maximum wind speed and the absolute value of the storm surge water increment of the typhoon scene to obtain a maximum wind speed absolute value conversion function value and a storm surge water increment absolute value conversion function value, so that the value range of the maximum wind speed absolute value conversion function value and the storm surge water increment absolute value conversion function value is positioned in the (0,1) interval;
step S4, setting a reference sequence, calculating the correlation coefficient of each single conversion function value sequence and the reference sequence, and calculating the correlation degree according to each single index correlation coefficient;
and step S5, determining the comprehensive index evaluation risk index grade according to the relevance.
2. The method for assessing the risk of a water body for island desalination under typhoon according to claim 1, wherein in the step S1, the setting of the single risk index rating standard comprises the steps of:
the risk indicators are divided into 5 grades according to each single statistical indicator, including: extremely dangerous, highly dangerous, obvious dangerous, general dangerous, rare danger, different statistical indexes correspond different calamity grades.
3. The method for evaluating risk of water desalination in an island under typhoon according to claim 1, wherein in step S3, the transfer function value of the absolute value of the maximum wind speed is calculated according to the following formula,
wherein, UwIs the conversion function value of the absolute value of the maximum wind speed; x is the absolute value of the maximum wind speed; lg is the logarithm of base 10X.
4. The method for evaluating risk of water desalination in an island under typhoon according to claim 1, wherein in step S3, the conversion function value of the absolute value of the water gain of storm surge is calculated according to the following formula,
wherein, UZIs the conversion function value of the absolute value of the water increase amount of storm surge; x is the absolute value of the water increase amount of storm surge; lg is the logarithm of base 10X.
5. The method for assessing the risk of a water desalination body in an island under the influence of a typhoon according to claim 1, wherein in the step S4, the calculation is made according to the following formulaCorrelation coefficient lambda of maximum wind speed and storm surge water increasewAnd λZAre respectively as
Wherein, Deltaw＝|Uow-Uw|；ΔZ＝|UoZ-UZ|；UOwAnd UOZRespectively are reference values of a maximum wind speed absolute value and a storm surge water increment absolute value; u shapewAnd UZThe comparison value is the conversion function value of the absolute value of the maximum wind speed and the absolute value of the water increasing amount of the storm surge.
6. The method for assessing the risk of a water desalination body for an island under typhoon according to claim 5, wherein in said step S4, said calculation correlation is calculated according to the following formula:
wherein, alpha is the degree of association, lambdawAnd λZThe correlation coefficients of the maximum wind speed and the storm surge water increment are respectively.
7. The method for assessing risk of a water body for reef desalination under typhoon according to claim 5 wherein in the step S5, the determining a comprehensive index evaluation risk index grade according to the correlation degree comprises: and comparing the calculated association degree with a preset comprehensive index judgment risk index grade table to match and determine the comprehensive index judgment risk index grade corresponding to the association degree.
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| CN112700155A (en) * | 2021-01-07 | 2021-04-23 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 | Risk assessment method and device for island desalination water body under action of tsunami |
| CN112700154A (en) * | 2021-01-07 | 2021-04-23 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 | Method and device for assessing risk of island desalination water body under earthquake action |
| CN114997752A (en) * | 2022-08-03 | 2022-09-02 | 国家卫星海洋应用中心 | Method and device for evaluating storm surge disaster based on ocean satellite remote sensing data |
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