CN110675087A - Regional comprehensive energy system investment potential assessment method - Google Patents
Regional comprehensive energy system investment potential assessment method Download PDFInfo
- Publication number
- CN110675087A CN110675087A CN201910964062.7A CN201910964062A CN110675087A CN 110675087 A CN110675087 A CN 110675087A CN 201910964062 A CN201910964062 A CN 201910964062A CN 110675087 A CN110675087 A CN 110675087A
- Authority
- CN
- China
- Prior art keywords
- energy
- energy system
- regional
- comprehensive energy
- cost
- Prior art date
- Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
- Pending
Links
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 title claims description 29
- 238000010276 construction Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 28
- 238000004458 analytical method Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 23
- 238000011156 evaluation Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 10
- 238000005265 energy consumption Methods 0.000 claims description 27
- 238000005457 optimization Methods 0.000 claims description 12
- 230000005611 electricity Effects 0.000 claims description 11
- 238000009825 accumulation Methods 0.000 claims description 9
- 238000005338 heat storage Methods 0.000 claims description 9
- 238000005057 refrigeration Methods 0.000 claims description 9
- 230000000295 complement effect Effects 0.000 claims description 8
- 238000010438 heat treatment Methods 0.000 claims description 8
- 238000004146 energy storage Methods 0.000 claims description 7
- 238000006243 chemical reaction Methods 0.000 claims description 6
- 238000012423 maintenance Methods 0.000 claims description 6
- VNWKTOKETHGBQD-UHFFFAOYSA-N methane Chemical compound C VNWKTOKETHGBQD-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 claims description 6
- 238000001816 cooling Methods 0.000 claims description 5
- 239000000126 substance Substances 0.000 claims description 4
- 238000004378 air conditioning Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000005516 engineering process Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 239000003345 natural gas Substances 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000011161 development Methods 0.000 abstract description 11
- 238000004364 calculation method Methods 0.000 abstract description 8
- 238000011084 recovery Methods 0.000 abstract description 4
- 230000008901 benefit Effects 0.000 description 4
- 238000011160 research Methods 0.000 description 3
- 230000009286 beneficial effect Effects 0.000 description 2
- 239000000470 constituent Substances 0.000 description 2
- 238000012986 modification Methods 0.000 description 2
- 230000004048 modification Effects 0.000 description 2
- 230000009467 reduction Effects 0.000 description 2
- 238000013480 data collection Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000007812 deficiency Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000010612 desalination reaction Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000000694 effects Effects 0.000 description 1
- 239000007789 gas Substances 0.000 description 1
- 230000006872 improvement Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000009434 installation Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000011835 investigation Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000004044 response Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000012163 sequencing technique Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000004088 simulation Methods 0.000 description 1
- 239000002699 waste material Substances 0.000 description 1
Images
Classifications
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
- G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
- G06Q10/0639—Performance analysis of employees; Performance analysis of enterprise or organisation operations
- G06Q10/06393—Score-carding, benchmarking or key performance indicator [KPI] analysis
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q30/00—Commerce
- G06Q30/02—Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising
- G06Q30/0201—Market modelling; Market analysis; Collecting market data
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q40/00—Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
- G06Q40/06—Asset management; Financial planning or analysis
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q50/00—Information and communication technology [ICT] specially adapted for implementation of business processes of specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
- G06Q50/06—Energy or water supply
Landscapes
- Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
- Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
- Strategic Management (AREA)
- Development Economics (AREA)
- Human Resources & Organizations (AREA)
- Economics (AREA)
- Finance (AREA)
- Entrepreneurship & Innovation (AREA)
- Accounting & Taxation (AREA)
- Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
- Theoretical Computer Science (AREA)
- Marketing (AREA)
- General Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
- General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
- Game Theory and Decision Science (AREA)
- Operations Research (AREA)
- Health & Medical Sciences (AREA)
- Tourism & Hospitality (AREA)
- Educational Administration (AREA)
- General Health & Medical Sciences (AREA)
- Data Mining & Analysis (AREA)
- Water Supply & Treatment (AREA)
- Public Health (AREA)
- Primary Health Care (AREA)
- Technology Law (AREA)
- Quality & Reliability (AREA)
- Management, Administration, Business Operations System, And Electronic Commerce (AREA)
Abstract
The invention discloses a regional comprehensive energy system investment potential evaluation method, which can reasonably analyze and calculate the overall energy utilization condition of a region by clustering typical users to extract a typical energy utilization curve. And designing and establishing a regional energy system basic model and a comprehensive energy system optimized operation model, and determining the total investment of the comprehensive energy system based on the regional comprehensive energy system profit of the model, so that economic analysis is performed based on the model, indexes such as internal profitability and unit profit are measured and calculated, and the market potential of the regional development comprehensive energy system construction is quantitatively evaluated. The profitability and the cost recovery of the investment construction of the regional comprehensive energy system can be effectively analyzed, the market potentials among regions are visualized and prioritized, reference is provided for regional energy system planning, scientific guidance is provided for the construction investment of the regional comprehensive energy system, and the economic rationality of calculation evaluation can be reflected under the current energy Internet development and construction form.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of comprehensive energy systems, and particularly relates to a regional comprehensive energy system investment potential evaluation method.
Background
With the development of energy storage technology and the reduction of cost, the profitability of a regional comprehensive energy system integrating multiple energy storage modes becomes practical. In addition, with the installation of storage devices such as Battery Energy Storage (BES), Thermal Storage (TS), and Ice Storage (IS) systems, energy consumers have the ability to cope with short-term changes in energy prices and to alleviate waste of energy resources.
Recently, research has shown that regional integrated energy systems have the ability to increase efficiency and save costs. However, the market potential formed by regional integrated energy systems varies from region to region due to differences in geographic characteristics, energy prices, and consumer composition. Therefore, there is a need to provide market potential analysis tools for regions willing to build regional integrated energy systems. To date, research on renewable energy desalination market potential analysis, demand-side response and other new technical innovations in the energy field has been conducted, but a regional analysis method for regional integrated energy system construction is still lacking. If the analysis tool is available, government managers, energy consumers and related investors can make more decisions on the construction of the regional comprehensive energy system, which is certainly beneficial to the sustainable development of the energy Internet.
Disclosure of Invention
The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to provide a method for evaluating the investment potential of a regional integrated energy system, to evaluate the potential of developing and constructing the integrated energy system and developing the integrated energy service in a target region, aiming at the above-mentioned deficiencies in the prior art.
The invention adopts the following technical scheme:
a regional comprehensive energy system investment potential assessment method comprises the following steps:
s1, acquiring historical energy consumption curve data of various typical users corresponding to each region, generating daily energy consumption curves of the typical users based on the historical energy consumption data of each type of users by using a clustering method, and generating a typical user set;
s2, analyzing typical user composition corresponding to the specific area, and estimating a typical energy consumption curve of the target area;
s3, calculating the profit of the target area according to the operation cost difference between the traditional operation mode and the comprehensive energy system multi-energy complementary optimization operation mode;
s4, calculating the investment construction cost of the comprehensive energy system of the target area, carrying out economic analysis according to the investment-income of the system, quantifying the market potential of the comprehensive energy service developed in the area, and completing evaluation.
Specifically, in step S1, the typical user is an area with a large number of energy users, and the energy consumption characteristics of each type of user are extracted from the historical energy consumption data of the users by applying a clustering method, and the user types are clustered to obtain typical energy consumption curves of each energy consumption user type, so as to form a typical user set.
Specifically, in step S2, the typical curve of energy demand for each area is:
where, e ═ elec, heat, cold }, PKRepresents the proportion of user types K, L in this regioneIs a typical profile of the demand for energy type e,
is the normalized demand curve for energy type e for user type K, and Q is the total demand for the target area.
Specifically, in step S3, the difference of the total operating cost of the target regional energy system between the traditional operating mode and the comprehensive energy system multi-energy complementary optimization operating mode is calculated by solving the basic model and the comprehensive energy system optimization operating model, and specifically:
profit＝CBC-CELAN
where profit denotes profit, CBCRepresenting the operating costs, C, calculated according to the basic modelELANAnd the operation cost calculated by the regional comprehensive energy system model obtained by economic dispatching in the day is shown.
Further, the basic model is specifically as follows:
the regional electricity, heat and cold energy demands are obtained through the decoupling operation of an energy system through power grid electricity purchasing, coal-fired boiler heating and air conditioning refrigeration;
the comprehensive energy system optimization operation model specifically comprises the following steps:
establishing a regional comprehensive energy system, applying an economic operation scheduling strategy, reducing the total operation cost of the region, including energy purchase cost and system operation and maintenance cost, and calculating by applying an optimized operation model of the regional comprehensive energy system on a typical day in order to evaluate the operation cost of the regional comprehensive energy system;
the constraints of the regional integrated energy system model include energy conversion constraints, supply and demand balance constraints, and limits of plant technology limits.
Further, the goal of the regional integrated energy system model is to minimize the energy purchase cost and the operation and maintenance cost of the energy local area network system, specifically:
minCELAN＝Cbuy+COM
wherein, the energy procurement cost CbuyIncluding the cost of electricity, natural gas and steam for the grid sales, and cost COMIs the total cost of maintaining and operating the energy conversion and generation equipment;
the constraints of the regional integrated energy system model are as follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
representing the active output of the cogeneration unit;
a discharge power representing stored energy;represents the refrigeration electric power of the cold accumulation system;
represents electric power of an air conditioner;
represents a charging power; l iselec(t) represents an electrical load;
represents electric power of an air conditioner;represents the refrigeration electric power of the cold accumulation system; l iscold(t) represents a cooling load; l isheat(t) represents steam heat load; l isspace(t) represents the space thermal load;
representing the heat output of the air conditioner; q. q.ssteam(t) represents steam heating power;
representing the heat storage power of the heat storage device;
representing the heat release power of the heat storage device.
Specifically, in step S4, the economic analysis includes an evaluation of the total investment, the annual and unit profits, and the intra-investment profitability of the regional integrated energy system solution.
Further, the total investment TIC for the regional integrated energy system construction is specifically as follows:
TIC＝γimax{qi(t)}
the comprehensive energy equipment comprises a cogeneration unit, an energy storage and cold accumulation system and an air conditioner.
Further, the unit profit λ of the regional integrated energy systemLANThe method specifically comprises the following steps:
wherein L is∑Denotes the total load, CBCAnd CELANRespectively representing the operation cost of the basic model and the regional comprehensive energy system model;
the annual profit of the regional integrated energy system is specifically as follows:
AP＝nd(CBC-CELAN)
where AP represents annual profit, ndRepresenting an effective working day within a year.
Further, the internal yield IRR of the regional integrated energy system is specifically:
wherein d represents a discount rate; AP represents the predicted income of the comprehensive energy system; TIC represents the total investment cost of the integrated energy system.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has at least the following beneficial effects:
the invention introduces a regional comprehensive energy system investment potential evaluation method, which simplifies the requirements of calculation and analysis on data quantity by clustering typical users to extract typical energy consumption curves, thereby reasonably analyzing and calculating the total energy consumption condition of a region; on the basis, in order to compare the economic benefit brought by the construction of the comprehensive energy system to the use of regional energy, a regional energy system basic model and a comprehensive energy system optimized operation model are designed and established, and the profit and the investment scale of the regional comprehensive energy system can be realized on the basis of the models, so that complete economic analysis is performed on the basis, the indexes such as internal profitability, unit profit and the like are measured and calculated, and the market potential of the construction of the regional development comprehensive energy system is quantitatively evaluated; based on the evaluation result, the potential of building comprehensive energy systems in different areas and developing comprehensive energy services is ranked and evaluated, and the method has important guiding significance for reasonable planning and deployment of comprehensive energy projects.
Furthermore, the typical user daily energy curve generated by the user historical energy curve is the basis for regional energy demand prediction in step S2, and can accurately reflect the time sequence characteristics of energy consumption of various types of typical users, and at the same time, the problem of high computational complexity caused by direct application of massive basic data is reduced.
Further, the constituent units of the regional energy system are users, and the types and the constituent proportions of the users will be decisive for the total energy demand of the region. The energy demand curve of the whole area is estimated by analyzing the user composition proportion of the area, and the method has universality and easy operability, namely, the energy demand of the area can be reasonably estimated by only knowing the user composition and the total energy consumption of the area, and the typical energy consumption curve of the target area is generated.
Furthermore, after the regional energy system is subjected to the investment construction of the comprehensive energy system, the reduction of the operation cost is the most important development power of the project, so the income of the regional comprehensive energy system can be estimated by calculating the operation cost difference between the operation cost in the traditional mode and the multi-energy complementary optimization operation mode of the comprehensive energy system.
Furthermore, the basic model is a simulation of the operation mode of the traditional energy decoupling of the regional energy system, and can reflect the operation cost of the regional energy system before modification; the optimized operation model of the comprehensive energy system is a typical daily economic dispatching of the comprehensive energy system considering multi-energy complementation and energy coordination and mutual assistance, the model considers a novel energy supply mode of common comprehensive energy such as combined supply of cold, heat and electricity, and the like, constraint conditions of multi-end energy supply and energy use are added, and the operation cost and the expected investment scale of the regional energy system after the construction of the comprehensive energy are reflected.
Further, the economic analysis is to quantitatively evaluate the investment potential of the comprehensive energy construction of the region through the expected investment and income of the comprehensive energy system construction, so that the investment potential of the comprehensive energy system of the region is quantitatively analyzed, and the investment priorities of different regions of the region are ranked according to the potential.
Further, the total investment of the comprehensive energy system construction is calculated, the market scale of the regional energy system construction can be reflected, and investors have greater investment interest in regions with large market scales.
Furthermore, the unit profit reflection system of the comprehensive energy system meets the income generated by unit energy load energy, is a reflection of the short-term benefits of the comprehensive energy system, can reflect the energy efficiency improvement degree of the energy system before and after investment, and makes the investment meaningless due to excessively low unit profit.
Further, the internal rate of return reflects the return on investment for construction of the integrated energy system, and the higher the internal rate of return will suggest that the investment cost can be recovered faster, which is the most concerned index of investors.
In conclusion, the profitability and the cost recovery capacity of the investment construction of the regional comprehensive energy system can be effectively obtained, scientific guidance is provided for the construction investment of the regional comprehensive energy system, and the rationality of calculation evaluation can be better reflected under the form of comprehensively constructing the comprehensive energy system at present.
The technical solution of the present invention is further described in detail by the accompanying drawings and embodiments.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the method of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a ranking chart of the results of the investment potential analysis of the example area.
Detailed Description
The invention provides a regional comprehensive energy system investment potential evaluation method, which simplifies the requirement of calculation analysis on data volume by clustering typical users to extract typical energy consumption curves, so that the total energy consumption condition of a region can be reasonably analyzed and calculated, the income of a regional comprehensive energy system is measured and calculated, the total investment of the comprehensive energy system is determined, economic analysis is carried out based on the data, indexes such as internal income rate and unit income are measured and calculated, and the investment potential of regional development comprehensive energy service and construction comprehensive energy system is quantitatively evaluated.
Referring to fig. 1, the method for estimating the investment potential of a regional integrated energy system according to the present invention includes the following steps:
s1, obtaining historical energy consumption data of various types of typical users corresponding to various regions from the national power grid and the southern power grid, and generating a typical user set based on the historical energy consumption data of each type of user by using a clustering method (such as k-means);
typical users refer to: for an area with a large number of energy consumers, it is not possible for an interested investor to analyze the energy consumption characteristics of each consumer individually. Generally, users in a region may be classified into several categories, such as chemical industry, hotels, office buildings, etc., according to certain rules.
User profile set: within each user type, users have similarities in energy consumption and can be grouped together by categories, characterized by a uniform energy demand curve. Therefore, by extracting the common attribute of each type of user from the historical energy consumption data of the user by applying a clustering method, such as a k-means method, the user types can be automatically clustered, and a typical energy demand curve and a probability distribution thereof can be calculated for each clustered user type.
S2, analyzing the typical user composition corresponding to the area aiming at the specific area, and estimating the typical energy demand curve of the target area;
specifically, considering the composition of typical users in a particular area, the energy demand curve uses the following equation:
where, e ═ elec, heat, cold }, PKIndicating the proportion of user types K in this area. L iseIs a typical curve of the demand of energy (electricity, gas, heat) type e,
is the normalized demand curve for energy type e for user type K, and Q is the total demand for the target area.
S3, calculating the multipotency complementary income of the regional integrated energy system of the target region according to the operation cost difference between the basic model and the optimized operation model of the regional integrated energy system;
the regional comprehensive energy system multi-energy complementary benefits are specifically as follows:
the difference of the total operation cost of the target area energy system between the traditional operation mode and the comprehensive energy system multi-energy complementary optimization operation mode can be obtained by respectively solving the basic model and the comprehensive energy system optimization operation model, namely:
profit＝CBC-CELAN(3)
where profit denotes profit, CBCRepresenting the operating costs, C, calculated according to the basic modelELANAnd the operation cost calculated by the regional comprehensive energy system model obtained by economic dispatching in the day is shown.
The basic model is specifically as follows:
the electricity, heat and cold energy requirements of the region are acquired by decoupling operation of an energy system respectively: namely, power grid electricity purchasing, coal-fired boiler heating and air-conditioning refrigeration.
The optimized operation model of the regional comprehensive energy system comprises the following specific steps:
by establishing a regional comprehensive energy system, such as a combined cooling heating and power supply and energy storage system, and applying an economic operation scheduling strategy, the total operation cost of the region, including energy purchase cost and system operation and maintenance cost, is reduced. In order to evaluate the operation cost of the regional integrated energy system, calculation is carried out by applying an optimized operation model of the regional integrated energy system for a typical day.
The goal of the regional integrated energy system model is to minimize the energy purchase cost and the operation and maintenance cost of the energy local area network system, which can be expressed by the optimization problem (4).
minCELAN＝Cbuy+COM(4)
Wherein, the energy procurement cost CbuyIncluding the cost of electricity, natural gas and steam for the grid sales, and cost COMIs the total cost of maintaining and operating the energy conversion and generation equipment.
The constraints of the regional comprehensive energy system model are specifically as follows:
the constraints of the regional integrated energy system model comprise energy conversion constraints, supply and demand balance constraints, equipment technical limit limits and the like, the formula (7) represents the power supply and demand balance constraints, and the formulas (8) to (10) ensure sufficient energy supply for cooling, heating and steam requirements. Namely:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
representing the active output of the cogeneration unit;
a discharge power representing stored energy;
represents the refrigeration electric power of the cold accumulation system;
represents electric power of an air conditioner;
represents a charging power; l iselec(t) represents an electrical load;represents electric power of an air conditioner;
represents the refrigeration electric power of the cold accumulation system; l iscold(t) represents a cooling load; l isheat(t) represents steam heat load; l isspace(t) represents the space thermal load;
representing the heat output of the air conditioner; q. q.ssteam(t) represents steam heating power;representing the heat storage power of the heat storage device;
representing the heat release power of the heat storage device.
S4, according to the assessment result, the economic analysis of the target area about the construction investment of the regional comprehensive energy system can accurately predict the cost and the return generated by the development comprehensive energy service of the target area, the knowledge is provided for the regional comprehensive energy planning, meanwhile, the results of different regions can be conveniently compared transversely, the input-output ratio of urban construction is maximized, the method can be used for strategic deployment and planning of urban regional comprehensive energy, and reference opinions are provided for the development and planning of urban regional comprehensive energy.
The economic analysis of the regional comprehensive energy system specifically comprises the following steps:
the economic analysis includes an assessment of the total investment, annual and unit profits, and the intra-investment profitability of the regional integrated energy system solution.
The total investment of the domain comprehensive energy system construction is as follows:
the optimized operation model of the regional comprehensive energy system solves the maximum consumption of comprehensive energy equipment, the comprehensive energy equipment comprises a cogeneration unit, an energy storage and cold accumulation system, an air conditioner and the like, and the total investment cost TIC of the comprehensive energy system is calculated as follows:
TIC＝γimax{qi(t)} (11)
the unit profit of the regional integrated energy system is specifically as follows:
the unit profit is an index of the saving effect of the regional comprehensive energy system, and the unit profit lambdaLANThe calculation is as follows:
wherein L is∑Denotes the total load, CBCAnd CELANRepresenting costs of the base model and the regional integrated energy system model, respectively。
The annual profit of the regional integrated energy system is specifically as follows:
annual profit is defined as the profit from the day and the effective working day n of the yeardThe annual profit AP is calculated as follows:
AP＝nd(CBC-CELAN) (13)
wherein n isdRepresenting an effective working day within a year.
The internal yield of the regional integrated energy system is specifically as follows:
the internal rate of return is defined as the discount rate with a net present value equal to zero, and the internal rate of return IRR is calculated as follows:
wherein d represents a discount rate; AP represents the predicted income of the comprehensive energy system; TIC represents the total investment cost of the integrated energy system.
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are some, but not all, embodiments of the present invention. The components of the embodiments of the present invention generally described and illustrated in the figures herein may be arranged and designed in a wide variety of different configurations. Thus, the following detailed description of the embodiments of the present invention, presented in the figures, is not intended to limit the scope of the invention, as claimed, but is merely representative of selected embodiments of the invention. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Referring to fig. 2, the feasibility and the effectiveness of the proposed method for evaluating the investment potential of the regional integrated energy system are verified by taking a certain district and county of the eastern province of china as examples. Residential users, commercial users and industrial users are the most popular regional energy consumption terminals and can occupy 90% of the total energy consumption of the region, so in the example, the user set is set as three types of industrial users, residential users and commercial users, and after field research and data collection, daily energy curves of various types of typical users are obtained through the method of step S1. Wherein the energy purchase price adopts the current government guide price.
There are 10 alternative comprehensive energy planning demonstration areas in the county, each area has different user composition, and the investment and output for developing the comprehensive energy system will be different. In order to reasonably develop the strategic planning of the comprehensive energy in the target district and the county and select the demonstration area of the comprehensive energy multi-energy complementary project, the investment potential of the comprehensive energy system in 10 areas is measured and calculated. For convenience of analysis, we number 10 regions to be evaluated of the target region. The basic conditions and the measured results of 10 regions are as follows through investigation:
region 1 (I1): the typical user of the area is constituted 44: 16: 40, after the comprehensive energy system is built in the region, the unit profit is 0.097 yuan/kilowatt hour, and the internal yield is 10%;
region 2 (I2): the typical user of the area is 54: 1: 44, after the comprehensive energy system is built in the region, the unit profit is 0.104 yuan/kilowatt hour, and the internal yield is 10%;
region 3 (H1): the typical user of the area is 37: 63: 0, after the comprehensive energy system is built in the region, the unit profit is 0.115 yuan/kilowatt hour, and the internal yield is 13%;
region 4 (H2): the typical users of the area are configured as 17: 67: 60, after the comprehensive energy system is built in the region, the unit profit is 0.1075 yuan/kilowatt hour, and the internal yield is 12.5%;
region 5 (H3): the typical user of the area is configured as 36: 46: 19, after the comprehensive energy system is built in the region, the unit profit is 0.105 yuan/kilowatt hour, and the internal yield is 11.8%;
region 6 (H4): the typical user of the area is composed of 6: 60: 34, after the comprehensive energy system is built in the region, the unit profit is 0.1175 yuan/kilowatt hour, and the internal yield is 11%;
region 7 (H5): the typical user of the area is composed of 32: 36: 432, after the comprehensive energy system is built in the region, the unit profit is 0.10 yuan/kilowatt hour, and the internal yield is 11%;
region 8 (H6): typical users of the area are configured as 1: 50: 49, after the comprehensive energy system is built in the region, the unit profit is 0.101 yuan/kilowatt hour, and the internal yield is 10.8%;
region 9 (O1): the typical user of the area is 43: 3: 54, after the comprehensive energy system is built in the region, the unit profit is 0.095 yuan/kilowatt hour, and the internal yield is 9%;
region 10 (O2): the typical user of the area is 39: 22: 39, after the comprehensive energy system is built in the region, the unit profit is 0.1065 yuan/kilowatt hour, and the internal yield is 11.5%;
in addition, 3 virtual regions are added for auxiliary analysis, and the three virtual regions are as follows:
virtual region one (I0): the typical user composition of the area only comprises factory users, and after the area is built into the integrated energy system, the unit profit is 0.105 yuan/kilowatt hour, and the internal yield is 15%;
virtual region two (H0): typical user composition of the area only comprises resident users, after the area is built into the comprehensive energy system, the unit profit is 0.1125 yuan/kilowatt hour, and the internal profit rate is 12%;
virtual region three (O0): typical customer configurations for the area include only commercial customers, and the area, when built into an integrated energy system, has a unit profit of 0.085 dollars/kilowatt-hour and an internal profitability of 5%.
According to the calculation result, the industrial user is most important for developing the comprehensive energy system, and because the industrial user has large energy consumption and more consumed energy types, the internal yield and unit profit of building the comprehensive energy system are quite high, and the comprehensive energy system is the most potential user for developing the comprehensive energy; while commercial users are the lowest profit and the lowest internal profitability, this means that investment recovery is difficult, and if the user complementation in the region is not considered, the region with high occupation ratio of industrial users is generally more valuable for development.
And sequencing and drawing the analysis results of the investment potential of the comprehensive energy system of the 13 exemplary areas, and using the calculation results as judgment criteria for evaluating which area is used as a preferential comprehensive energy construction demonstration area. Specific analyses are exemplified below: for the H4 region, although the unit profit is the highest, the internal profitability is low in rank, which indicates that the investment comprehensive energy system construction in the region can obtain high profit, but the investment cost needs very large capital investment in the early stage, the investment cost recovery needs long time, and the investment risk is large; and areas such as 'H1' and the like have higher internal earning rate and unit profit, compared with areas with regional comprehensive energy system construction market investment potential, through analysis, the areas 'H1' and 'H2' have the most comprehensive energy system investment potential relative to other areas, and more development support can be provided on district and county policies and strategic planning.
The above-mentioned contents are only for illustrating the technical idea of the present invention, and the protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereby, and any modification made on the basis of the technical idea of the present invention falls within the protection scope of the claims of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A regional comprehensive energy system investment potential assessment method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1, acquiring historical energy consumption curve data of various typical users corresponding to each region, generating daily energy consumption curves of the typical users based on the historical energy consumption data of each type of users by using a clustering method, and generating a typical user set;
s2, analyzing typical user composition corresponding to the specific area, and estimating a typical energy consumption curve of the target area;
s3, calculating the profit of the target area according to the operation cost difference between the traditional operation mode and the comprehensive energy system multi-energy complementary optimization operation mode;
s4, calculating investment construction cost of the comprehensive energy system of the target area, carrying out economic analysis according to investment-income of the system, quantifying market potential of the comprehensive energy service developed by the area, and pre-estimating cost and return generated by the comprehensive energy service developed by the target area to realize comprehensive energy planning of the area.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein in step S1, the typical user is a region with a large number of energy users, the energy usage characteristics of each type of user are extracted from the historical energy usage data of the users by applying a clustering method, and the user types are clustered to obtain typical energy usage curves of the energy usage user types, thereby forming a typical user set.
3. The method according to claim 1, wherein in step S2, the typical curve of each energy demand of each region is:
where, e ═ elec, heat, cold }, PKRepresents the proportion of user types K, L in this regioneIs a typical profile of the demand for energy type e,
is the normalized demand curve for energy type e for user type K, and Q is the total demand for the target area.
4. The method according to claim 1, wherein in step S3, the difference of the total operating cost of the target regional energy system between the conventional operating mode and the comprehensive energy system multipotential complementation optimization operating mode is calculated by solving the basic model and the comprehensive energy system optimization operating model, specifically:
profit＝CBC-CELAN
where profit denotes profit, CBCRepresenting the operating costs calculated according to the basic model,CELANand the operation cost calculated by the regional comprehensive energy system model obtained by economic dispatching in the day is shown.
5. The method according to claim 4, characterized in that the basic model is in particular:
the regional electricity, heat and cold energy demands are obtained through the decoupling operation of an energy system through power grid electricity purchasing, coal-fired boiler heating and air conditioning refrigeration;
the comprehensive energy system optimization operation model specifically comprises the following steps:
establishing a regional comprehensive energy system, applying an economic operation scheduling strategy, reducing the total operation cost of the region, including energy purchase cost and system operation and maintenance cost, and calculating by applying an optimized operation model of the regional comprehensive energy system on a typical day in order to evaluate the operation cost of the regional comprehensive energy system;
the constraints of the regional integrated energy system model include energy conversion constraints, supply and demand balance constraints, and limits of plant technology limits.
6. The method according to claim 5, characterized in that the objective of the regional integrated energy system model is to minimize energy purchase costs and operation and maintenance costs of the energy local area network system, in particular:
minCELAN＝Cbuy+COM
wherein, the energy procurement cost CbuyIncluding the cost of electricity, natural gas and steam for the grid sales, and cost COMIs the total cost of maintaining and operating the energy conversion and generation equipment;
the constraints of the regional integrated energy system model are as follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
representing the active output of the cogeneration unit;a discharge power representing stored energy;represents the refrigeration electric power of the cold accumulation system;
represents electric power of an air conditioner;
represents a charging power; l iselec(t) represents an electrical load;
represents electric power of an air conditioner;
represents the refrigeration electric power of the cold accumulation system; l iscold(t) represents a cooling load; l isheat(t) representsSteam heat load; l isspace(t) represents the space thermal load;
representing the heat output of the air conditioner; q. q.ssteam(t) represents steam heating power;representing the heat storage power of the heat storage device;
representing the heat release power of the heat storage device.
7. The method according to claim 1, wherein the economic analysis comprises the evaluation of total investment, annual and unit profit, and internal profitability of the investment of the regional integrated energy system project in step S4.
8. The method according to claim 7, wherein the regional integrated energy system construction total investment TIC is specifically:
TIC＝γimax{qi(t)}
the comprehensive energy equipment comprises a cogeneration unit, an energy storage and cold accumulation system and an air conditioner.
9. The method according to claim 7, wherein the unit profit λLAN of the regional integrated energy system is specified as:
wherein L is∑Denotes the total load, CBCAnd CELANRespectively representing the operation cost of the basic model and the regional comprehensive energy system model;
the annual profit of the regional integrated energy system is specifically as follows:
AP＝nd(CBC-CELAN)
where AP represents annual profit, ndRepresenting an effective working day within a year.
10. The method according to claim 7, wherein the internal rate of return IRR of the regional energy complex is specified as:
wherein d represents a discount rate; AP represents the predicted income of the comprehensive energy system; TIC represents the total investment cost of the integrated energy system.
Priority Applications (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201910964062.7A CN110675087A (en) | 2019-10-11 | 2019-10-11 | Regional comprehensive energy system investment potential assessment method |
Applications Claiming Priority (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201910964062.7A CN110675087A (en) | 2019-10-11 | 2019-10-11 | Regional comprehensive energy system investment potential assessment method |
Publications (1)
| Publication Number | Publication Date |
|---|---|
| CN110675087A true CN110675087A (en) | 2020-01-10 |
Family
ID=69081599
Family Applications (1)
| Application Number | Title | Priority Date | Filing Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201910964062.7A Pending CN110675087A (en) | 2019-10-11 | 2019-10-11 | Regional comprehensive energy system investment potential assessment method |
Country Status (1)
| Country | Link |
|---|---|
| CN (1) | CN110675087A (en) |
Cited By (5)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN111626558A (en) * | 2020-04-20 | 2020-09-04 | 浙江大学 | Comprehensive energy system model comparison method and optimization system based on scenario analysis |
| CN111968005A (en) * | 2020-06-29 | 2020-11-20 | 法能(中国)能源技术有限公司 | Regional energy system potential evaluation method and system for realizing same |
| CN112085259A (en) * | 2020-08-13 | 2020-12-15 | 国网上海市电力公司 | New energy access and comprehensive energy service potential correlation prediction method |
| CN113592271A (en) * | 2021-07-22 | 2021-11-02 | 佳源科技股份有限公司 | Distributed energy storage user mining method and device, computer equipment and storage medium |
| CN116805800A (en) * | 2023-02-28 | 2023-09-26 | 南方电网科学研究院有限责任公司 | Regional interconnected power grid dispatching method and device and nonvolatile storage equipment |
-
2019
- 2019-10-11 CN CN201910964062.7A patent/CN110675087A/en active Pending
Cited By (8)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN111626558A (en) * | 2020-04-20 | 2020-09-04 | 浙江大学 | Comprehensive energy system model comparison method and optimization system based on scenario analysis |
| CN111626558B (en) * | 2020-04-20 | 2023-04-28 | 浙江大学 | Comprehensive energy system model comparison method and optimization system based on scene analysis |
| CN111968005A (en) * | 2020-06-29 | 2020-11-20 | 法能(中国)能源技术有限公司 | Regional energy system potential evaluation method and system for realizing same |
| CN111968005B (en) * | 2020-06-29 | 2023-10-13 | 法能(中国)能源技术有限公司 | Regional energy system potential evaluation method and system for implementing same |
| CN112085259A (en) * | 2020-08-13 | 2020-12-15 | 国网上海市电力公司 | New energy access and comprehensive energy service potential correlation prediction method |
| CN113592271A (en) * | 2021-07-22 | 2021-11-02 | 佳源科技股份有限公司 | Distributed energy storage user mining method and device, computer equipment and storage medium |
| CN116805800A (en) * | 2023-02-28 | 2023-09-26 | 南方电网科学研究院有限责任公司 | Regional interconnected power grid dispatching method and device and nonvolatile storage equipment |
| CN116805800B (en) * | 2023-02-28 | 2024-05-07 | 南方电网科学研究院有限责任公司 | Regional interconnected power grid dispatching method and device and nonvolatile storage equipment |
Similar Documents
| Publication | Publication Date | Title |
|---|---|---|
| CN110675087A (en) | Regional comprehensive energy system investment potential assessment method | |
| Asadinejad et al. | Evaluation of residential customer elasticity for incentive based demand response programs | |
| Fu et al. | Clustering-based short-term load forecasting for residential electricity under the increasing-block pricing tariffs in China | |
| Hayn et al. | Electricity load profiles in Europe: The importance of household segmentation | |
| Swan et al. | Modeling of end-use energy consumption in the residential sector: A review of modeling techniques | |
| Önüt et al. | Multiple criteria evaluation of current energy resources for Turkish manufacturing industry | |
| Roberts et al. | Characterisation of Australian apartment electricity demand and its implications for low-carbon cities | |
| Mahmud et al. | Computational tools for design, analysis, and management of residential energy systems | |
| CN110782153A (en) | Modeling method and system for comprehensive energy efficiency assessment system of enterprise park | |
| Fidalgo et al. | A new clustering algorithm for load profiling based on billing data | |
| Wang et al. | Performance based regulation of the electricity supply industry in Hong Kong: An empirical efficiency analysis approach | |
| Negri et al. | Combined model predictive control and ANN-based forecasters for jointly acting renewable self-consumers: An environmental and economical evaluation | |
| Lei et al. | Prediction method of energy consumption for high building based on LMBP neural network | |
| CN109636465A (en) | A kind of micro-capacitance sensor sale of electricity set meal design method based on the fluctuation of electricity equivalent value | |
| Yu et al. | Estimating power demand shaving capacity of buildings on an urban scale using extracted demand response profiles through machine learning models | |
| de Carvalho et al. | Mapping of regulatory actors and processes related to cloud-based energy management environments using the Apriori algorithm | |
| JP3927040B2 (en) | Distribution system load estimation device | |
| Gao et al. | A two-stage decision framework for GIS-based site selection of wind-photovoltaic-hybrid energy storage project using LSGDM method | |
| Ding et al. | Urban monthly power load forecasting based on economy-meteorology-gas demand coupling | |
| Eto et al. | Integrated analysis of demand-side programs | |
| Li et al. | An incentive strategy of shiftable load participation in demand response based on user electricity preference | |
| Muratori | Dynamic management of integrated residential energy systems | |
| Weishang et al. | Study on optimal model of micro-energy network operation configuration considering flexible load characteristics | |
| Yurdakul et al. | Development of a new support mechanism to calculate feed-in tariffs for electricity generation from renewable energy sources in Turkey | |
| Amadeh et al. | Building cluster demand flexibility: An innovative characterization framework and applications at the planning and operational levels |
Legal Events
| Date | Code | Title | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| RJ01 | Rejection of invention patent application after publication |
Application publication date: 20200110 |
|
| RJ01 | Rejection of invention patent application after publication |