CN110265999B - Highly-meshed secondary power distribution network load estimation method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a highly meshed secondary power distribution network load estimation method, which comprises the following specific steps: acquiring real-time information of voltage, current and power of a secondary transformer, monthly electricity bills of users, typical load curves of each building type and outdoor temperature; carrying out corresponding reduction according to the obtained topological structure of the secondary power distribution network; load prediction is carried out on the secondary power distribution network by using the transformer measurement value, the monthly electricity bill of the user and the typical load curve of the building; introducing a concept of effective temperature to improve the prediction precision, and taking the predicted value as a pseudo-measured value of the node; carrying out state estimation on the nodes by using the real measurement values and the pseudo measurement data of the secondary distribution network; and carrying out power flow analysis on the node voltage and the phase angle obtained by state estimation in the power system to obtain the active power and the reactive power of the network. The method of the invention can obtain the load of each node by network reduction and load prediction and further by adopting state estimation.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of power system management and operation, in particular to a highly meshed secondary power distribution network load estimation method.
Background
With the development of national economy and rapid progress of scientific technology in China, various methods and measures are continuously adopted by a secondary power distribution network of a modern power system to accurately estimate various parameters of the secondary power distribution network, but the highly meshed secondary power distribution network becomes a potential safety hazard of operation of the power system due to the problems of unobservability and the like and brings huge economic loss.
In the existing load estimation of the power system, a data acquisition and monitoring (SCADA) system is required to provide a large amount of historical data, a corresponding estimation model is established according to the historical data, after estimation is made, corresponding decisions are made, and a necessary scheduling plan is made in time, so that the safety and stability of the operation of a power grid are maintained, the unnecessary rotating reserve capacity of a generator is reduced, a unit maintenance plan is reasonably arranged, the normal production and life of the society are guaranteed, and the economic benefit and the social benefit are improved.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a highly meshed secondary distribution network load estimation method.
A load estimation method for a highly meshed secondary power distribution network comprises the following specific steps:
1) acquiring real-time information of voltage, current and power of a secondary transformer, monthly electricity bills of users, typical load curves of each building type and outdoor temperature;
2) carrying out corresponding reduction according to the obtained topological structure of the secondary power distribution network;
3) load prediction is carried out on the secondary power distribution network by using the transformer measurement value, the monthly electricity bill of the user and the typical load curve of the building;
4) introducing effective temperature to improve prediction accuracy, and taking the predicted value as a pseudo measured value of a node;
5) carrying out state estimation on the nodes by using the real measurement values and the pseudo measurement data of the secondary distribution network;
6) and carrying out power flow analysis on the node voltage and the phase angle obtained by state estimation in the power system to obtain the active power and the reactive power of the network.
Preferably, the step 2) includes combining two parallel transmission lines between two bus bars; eliminating connecting buses without measuring devices and loads by using Kron's reduction method; and removing the point network from the secondary distribution network.
Preferably, the step 3) includes fitting the actually measured power value of the transformer and the outdoor temperature by using a polynomial function to obtain a power-temperature curve; dividing the power-temperature curve into four types of working days, saturdays, sundays and holidays according to datesA type; normalizing the power-temperature curve using a normalization formulaIn the formula TBaseIs a reference temperature, PNormRepresents the normalized power value, P represents the power, T represents the temperature, T represents the time; the load of each node can be predicted by using a power-temperature curve and monthly electricity consumption.
Preferably, the step 4) corrects an original power-temperature curve, introduces an effective temperature, and further includes mapping an actual measurement value of the secondary transformer in a power-temperature curve; if the power actual measured value of the transformer is PAThen the effective temperature is PAThe temperature output corresponding to the power-temperature curve is TA(ii) a And predicting the load of the node by adopting the effective temperature, the power-temperature curve and the monthly electricity bill, and taking the load of the node as a pseudo-measured value of the node.
Preferably, the step 5) includes listing an objective function Min J (x) ═ z according to a state estimation principlei-hi(x)]TW-1[zi-hi(x)]Wherein J (x) is an objective function, ziFor the measured value h of the ith measuring deviceiW is a weighting matrix for the corresponding estimated value; the weighting matrix W is a diagonal matrix, and the coefficients corresponding to the actual measurement valuesCoefficient corresponding to pseudo-measurement valueIn the formula ofiRepresents the average of the measured data,% error represents the corresponding maximum relative error; for node voltage and phase angle initial value xkCarrying out assignment and setting an iterative threshold epsilon; calculating the estimated value h (x) of the secondary distribution networkk) And the corresponding Jacobian matrix H (x)k) (ii) a Calculating Δ x ═ HT WH)-1HT[z-h(x)]Wherein z is a measurement value of each node; updating the phase angle estimate xk+1=xk+ Δ x; if it isStopping iteration if the updating value delta x is smaller than the set threshold epsilon, otherwise, turning to the calculation of the estimated value h (x) of the secondary distribution networkk) And the corresponding Jacobian matrix H (x)k) And (6) executing in a loop.
Has the advantages that: the method can obtain the load of each node by network reduction, load prediction and state estimation, the load estimation takes weather factors into consideration, and the load is deduced from a standard load curve by introducing an effective temperature concept, so that the load condition can be better estimated, the load estimation accuracy of the method is high, the method is different from other load prediction methods, effective prediction can be carried out only by using obtained real-time data, a large amount of historical data is not needed, and meanwhile, compared with other load estimation methods, the weighted least square estimation method ensures that the contribution rate of each building to errors is the same, and the load estimation accuracy influenced by some large/small loads is avoided.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating the absolute and relative error between the true and estimated values according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
The dispatching automation and computer management level of modern secondary power distribution networks are gradually improved, and the accurate and comprehensive acquisition of real-time measurement data of the secondary power distribution networks becomes the basis and the premise for realizing various functional modules of the secondary power distribution network management system.
A highly meshed secondary distribution network load estimation method comprises the following specific steps:
1) acquiring real-time information of voltage, current and power of a secondary transformer, monthly electricity bills of users, typical load curves of each building type and outdoor temperature;
2) carrying out corresponding reduction according to the obtained topological structure of the secondary power distribution network;
3) load prediction is carried out on the secondary power distribution network by using the transformer measurement value, the monthly electricity bill of the user and the typical load curve of the building;
4) introducing effective temperature to improve prediction accuracy, and taking the predicted value as a pseudo measured value of a node;
5) carrying out state estimation on the nodes by using the real measurement values and the pseudo measurement data of the secondary distribution network;
6) and carrying out power flow analysis on the node voltage and the phase angle obtained by state estimation in the power system to obtain the active power and the reactive power of the network.
Further, step 2) includes combining two parallel transmission lines between the two buses; eliminating connecting buses without measuring devices and loads by using Kron's reduction method; and removing the point network from the secondary distribution network.
Further, step 3) comprises fitting the actually measured power value of the transformer and the outdoor temperature by adopting a polynomial function to obtain a power-temperature curve; dividing the power-temperature curve into four types of working days, saturdays, sundays and holidays according to the date; normalizing the power-temperature curve using a normalization formulaIn the formula TBaseIs a reference temperature, PNormRepresents the normalized power value, P represents power, T represents temperature, and T represents time; the load of each node can be predicted by adopting a power-temperature curve and monthly power consumption.
Further, step 4) corrects the original power-temperature curve through step 2), introduces effective temperature, and also comprises mapping the actual measurement value of the secondary transformer in a power-temperature curve graph; if the power actual measured value of the transformer is PAThen the effective temperature is PAThe temperature output corresponding to the power-temperature curve is TA(ii) a And predicting the load of the node by adopting the effective temperature, the power-temperature curve and the monthly electricity bill, and taking the load of the node as a pseudo-measured value of the node.
Further, step 5) includes listing the objective function Min J (x) ═ z according to the state estimation principlei-hi(x)]TW-1[zi-hi(x)]Wherein J (x) is a targetFunction, ziMeasured value of the i-th measuring device, hiW is a weighting matrix for the corresponding estimated value; the weighting matrix W is a diagonal matrix, and the coefficients corresponding to the actual measurement valuesCoefficient corresponding to pseudo-measurement valueIn the formula ofiRepresents the average of the measured data,% error represents the corresponding maximum relative error; for node voltage and phase angle initial value xkCarrying out assignment and setting an iterative threshold epsilon; calculating an estimated value h (x) of the secondary distribution networkk) And the corresponding Jacobian matrix H (x)k) (ii) a Calculating Δ x ═ HT WH)-1HT[z-h(x)]Wherein z is a measurement value of each node; updating the phase angle estimate xk+1=xk+ Δ x; stopping iteration if the updating value delta x is smaller than the set threshold epsilon, otherwise, turning to the calculation of the estimated value h (x) of the secondary distribution networkk) And the corresponding Jacobian matrix H (x)k) And (6) executing in a loop.
Examples
By acquiring real-time information of voltage, current and power of the secondary transformer, monthly electricity bills of users, typical load curves of each building type and outdoor temperature; carrying out corresponding reduction according to the obtained topological structure of the secondary power distribution network; the method comprises the steps of utilizing a transformer measurement value, a monthly electricity bill of a user and a typical load curve of a building to carry out load prediction on a secondary power distribution network, collecting and analyzing the correlation between an actual power value of a transformer in the secondary power distribution network and outdoor temperature, dividing power into 4 conditions, namely working days, saturdays, sundays and holidays, fitting the four conditions by using a third-order polynomial, and normalizing a power-temperature curve, wherein the formula is as follows:in the formula, PNormDenotes the normalized power value, P denotes the power, TBaseSet as a reference temperature, T representsThe temperature, t represents time, the four types of data are respectively fitted with the temperature and the normalized power data by utilizing a third-order polynomial function, and the temperature is brought into a power-temperature curve to obtain a power value of the node; introducing a concept of effective temperature to improve the prediction precision, and taking the predicted value as a pseudo-measured value of the node; and performing state estimation on the node by using the real measurement value and the pseudo measurement data of the secondary distribution network, wherein the state estimation comprises the following steps of listing a target function according to the principle of state estimation: min J (x) ═ zi-hi(x)]TW-1[zi-hi(x)]Wherein J (x) is an objective function, ziIs the measured value of the ith measuring device, hiFor the corresponding estimated value, W is a weighting matrix, W is a diagonal matrix, and the coefficients corresponding to the true measured values:the coefficients corresponding to the pseudo-measured values:in the formula, muiRepresents the average of the measured data,% error represents the corresponding maximum relative error, voltage estimated for the network and phase angle initial value xkAssigning initial values, setting iterative threshold epsilon, and calculating estimated value h (x) of secondary distribution networkk) And the corresponding Jacobian matrix H (x)k) And updating delta x every time in the iteration of the secondary distribution network: Δ x ═ HT WH)-1HT[z-h(x)]Wherein z is a measurement value of the secondary distribution network, h (x)k) Is an estimated value of the secondary distribution network, H (x)k) Is the Jacobian matrix of the estimated value of the secondary distribution network, W is the weighting matrix, updates x to the estimated value of the phase anglek+1=xk+ deltax, stopping iteration if the updated value deltax of the iteration is smaller than the set threshold epsilon, otherwise, the algorithm is switched to calculate the estimated value h (x) of the secondary distribution networkk) And the corresponding Jacobian matrix H (x)k) And (6) executing in a loop.
When the highly meshed secondary distribution network load estimation method works, firstly, the voltage, the current and the power of the transformer are obtainedReal-time information, monthly electricity bill of user, typical load curve of each building type and outdoor temperature, then according to two parallel transmission lines between two buses, using Kron reduction method to eliminate connecting bus without measuring device and load, removing dotted network from secondary distribution network to obtain topology structure of secondary distribution network, making corresponding reduction operation, then utilizing measured value obtained by transformer, monthly electricity bill of user and typical load curve of building to make load prediction of secondary distribution network, and the term also comprises fitting the measured power value of the transformer and the outdoor temperature by adopting a polynomial function to obtain a power-temperature curve, dividing the power-temperature curve into four types of working days, saturday, sunday and holiday and a standardized power-temperature curve according to dates, and using a standardized formula.In the formula TBaseIs a reference temperature, PNormRepresenting the normalized power value, P represents power, T represents temperature, T represents time, a power-temperature curve and monthly power consumption are adopted to predict the load of each node, then, an effective temperature concept is introduced to improve the load prediction accuracy, the predicted value is taken as a pseudo-measured value of the node, the original power-temperature curve needs to be introduced for correction, the effective temperature concept is introduced, the actual measured value of the secondary transformer is mapped in the power-temperature curve, and if the actual measured value of the power of the transformer is PAThen the effective temperature is PAThe temperature output corresponding to the power-temperature curve is TAThe method comprises the steps of adopting effective temperature, power-temperature curves and monthly bills to predict node loads, taking the node loads as pseudo-measured values of the nodes, correcting the original power-temperature curves, and listing an objective function Min J (x) ═ z according to a state estimation principlei-hi(x)]TW-1[zi-hi(x)]Wherein J (x) is an objective function, ziMeasured value of the i-th measuring device, hiFor the corresponding estimated value, W is a weighting matrix, W is a diagonal matrix, and the real measured value corresponds toCoefficient of (2)Coefficient corresponding to pseudo-measurement valueIn the formula ofiRepresents the average of the measured data,% error represents the corresponding maximum relative error, for the node voltage and the phase angle initial value xkCarrying out assignment, setting an iterative threshold epsilon, and calculating an estimated value h (x) of the secondary distribution networkk) And the corresponding Jacobian matrix H (x)k) And calculating Δ x ═ HT WH)-1HT[z-h(x)]Wherein z is the measured value of each node, the updated phase angle estimated value xk+1=xk+ Δ x, stopping iteration if the update value Δ x is smaller than the set threshold epsilon, otherwise, turning to the calculation of each node estimation value h (x)k) And the corresponding Jacobian matrix H (x)k) And performing cyclic execution, performing state estimation on load data by using the measurement value and the pseudo measurement value of the secondary distribution network, and finally performing power flow analysis on the obtained node voltage and phase angle estimation value to obtain active power and reactive power of the network.
The above description is only for the preferred embodiment of the present invention, but the scope of the present invention is not limited thereto, and any person skilled in the art should be considered to be within the technical scope of the present invention, and the technical solutions and the inventive concepts thereof according to the present invention should be equivalent or changed within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (5)
1. A highly meshed secondary distribution network load estimation method is characterized by comprising the following steps: the method for estimating the load of the highly meshed secondary power distribution network comprises the following specific steps:
1) acquiring real-time information of voltage, current and power of a secondary transformer, monthly electricity bills of users, typical load curves of each building type and outdoor temperature;
2) performing corresponding reduction according to the obtained topological structure of the secondary power distribution network;
3) load prediction is carried out on the secondary power distribution network by using the transformer measurement value, the monthly electricity bill of the user and the typical load curve of the building;
4) introducing effective temperature to improve prediction accuracy, and taking a predicted value as a pseudo-measured value of a node;
5) estimating the state of the node by using the real measurement value and the pseudo measurement data of the secondary distribution network;
6) and carrying out power flow analysis on the node voltage and the phase angle obtained by state estimation in the power system to obtain the active power and the reactive power of the network.
2. The method for estimating the load of the highly meshed secondary distribution network according to claim 1, wherein: the step 2) comprises combining two parallel transmission lines between two buses; eliminating connecting buses without measuring devices and loads by using Kron's reduction method; and removing the point network from the secondary distribution network.
3. The method for estimating the load of the highly meshed secondary distribution network according to claim 1, wherein: the step 3) comprises fitting the measured power value of the transformer and the outdoor temperature by adopting a polynomial function to obtain a power-temperature curve; dividing the power-temperature curve into four types of working days, saturdays, sundays and holidays according to the date; normalizing the power-temperature curve using a normalization formulaIn the formula TBaseIs a reference temperature, PNormRepresents the normalized power value, P represents the power, T represents the temperature, T represents the time; the load of each node can be predicted by using a power-temperature curve and monthly electricity consumption.
4. The method for estimating the load of the highly meshed secondary distribution network according to claim 1, wherein: the step 4) corrects the original power-temperature curve, introduces the effective temperature, and maps the actual measured value of the secondary transformerShot in a power-temperature curve chart; if the power actual measured value of the transformer is PAThen the effective temperature is PATemperature output at the power-temperature curve is TA(ii) a And predicting the load of the node by adopting the effective temperature, the power-temperature curve and the monthly electricity bill, and taking the load of the node as a pseudo-measured value of the node.
5. The method for estimating the load of the highly meshed secondary distribution network according to claim 1, wherein: said step 5) comprises listing the objective function Min J (x) ═ z according to the principle of state estimationi-hi(x)]TW-1[zi-hi(x)]Wherein J (x) is an objective function, ziMeasured value of the i-th measuring device, hiW is a weighting matrix for the corresponding estimated value; the weighting matrix W is a diagonal matrix, and the coefficients corresponding to the actual measurement valuesCoefficient corresponding to pseudo-measurement valueIn the formula ofiRepresents the average of the measured data,% error represents the corresponding maximum relative error; for node voltage and phase angle initial value xkCarrying out assignment and setting an iterative threshold epsilon; calculating an estimated value h (x) of the secondary distribution networkk) And the corresponding Jacobian matrix H (x)k) (ii) a Calculating Δ x ═ HT WH)-1HT[z-h(x)]Wherein z is a measurement value of each node; updating the phase angle estimate xk+1=xk+ Δ x; stopping iteration if the updating value delta x is smaller than the set threshold epsilon, otherwise, turning to the calculation of the estimated value h (x) of the secondary distribution networkk) And the corresponding Jacobian matrix H (x)k) And (6) executing in a loop.
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