CN110232242A - The more ships to be escorted based on ice formation ice breaker follow kinematic method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of more ships to be escorted based on ice formation ice breaker to follow kinematic method.This method can effectively improve the navigation experience and safety of crewman, and with the safe speed of the processing of the method for regression analysis, recurrence ship navigation, finally obtain analysis result.The case where the more ships proposed follow in kinematic method, define Baltic Sea domain ice using the influence of ice velocity and acceleration caused by the resistance of ship.Meanwhile the speed at ship current time and range data being extracted to and being imported the following in kinematic method of more ships, using the data of this method and current time, achieve the purpose that predict the safe ship's speed of subsequent time and distance.The kinematic method can be applied to the emulation of ice formation ice breaker and test, fully consider ice to the safe speed and distance between the drag effects and two ships of ship, to improve validity and safety of maritime navigation of the model of this method foundation in bridge simulator.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the technologies necks such as ship safe navigation emulation technology and the software model foundation for being used in bridge simulator
Domain, and in particular to it is a kind of based on ice formation ice breaker escort more ships follow kinematic method correlation model foundation.
Background technique
Shipping supports the goods amount of world commerce 90%, and according to UNCTAD data statistics, Seaborne trade amount is in nearly 40 Nian Lizeng
2.5 times have been grown, until having had reached within 2012 surprising 9,100,000,000 tons, has accounted for the 70%-90% of world's shipping total amount.In severe cold
Winter, ship navigate by water in Baltic Sea northern territory, ice regime is sufficiently complex at this time.In Finland waters, winter marine transportation system
Safety be by Finland-Sweden winter navigation system (FSWNS) Lai Guanli.This system will lead to the difference of ship's navigation
Operation mode, ship or independence are navigated by water or are navigated by water under ice breaker assistance.But since many ships shortage breaks ice
Ability, in the case where the cold winter bad environments in Baltic Sea domain these ordinary ships can not normal/cruise, at this time
The help of ice breaker is needed, but is so just easy to that accident occurs.And the navigation experience of navigation crewman is to avoiding at this time
Such event, which occurs, highly important help, so that marine simulator also seems particularly significant.Simulated environment true to nature
Very helpful for improving navigation experience, the foundation of model is not only raising in emulation technology and model use exists
A part and parcel in marine simulator.With the continuous development of shipping, the more ships in ice formation follow the research of model
Seem very important, true to nature, effective ice formation navigation simulated environment improves safety of maritime navigation and reduces the investment of expense, right
The accurate prediction of the speed and distance of the safety traffic of subsequent time is but also ice navigation is safer.
As shipping more ships follow safe speed prediction and safe distance prediction work to deepen continuously, researcher's foundation
Different analytic angles and application conditions propose different models, these models are roughly divided into two classes.One kind is from safety
The angle of distance, which sets about setting out, proposes the model that follows of ship, and another kind of is the comprehensive dynamics established between ice breaker and support vessel
Model.First class model follows navigation between two ships in the frequency range that the angle of two foul frequencies obtains limitation
The safe distance of required holding will make ship's navigation be in danger once being less than this safe distance.Second class master
The safe navigation of ship is kept from the angle for following model of ship, the model and can be used in software technology, mould
Type, which mainly studies two ships, to be ice breaker respectively and follows the relationship between ship.Two class models are at ice-covered water
What there was an ice breaker in domain follows action.But two class models have the characteristics that common is the modeling of the convoy action between two ships,
Prediction is limited in scope, then more model ships is not just available, but ship is in ice navigation that often not only a ship is followed by
Ice breaker.It is difficult to get application in actual conditions again.
Summary of the invention
In order to overcome the deficiencies in the prior art, the invention reside in provide it is a kind of based on ice formation ice breaker escort
More ships follow kinematic method, solve the problems, such as that conventional model unpredictable more follow ship operational configuration.Neck is followed by vehicle
The model in domain study combine ship ice navigation truth, improve model to more ships ice navigation ability.And
Afterwards, by ship in the safe speed of ice navigation and the research of safe distance, to further increase the precision of prediction of model
In order to can effectively be used in simulation software.
The technical solution for realizing the aim of the invention is as follows it is a kind of based on ice formation ice breaker escort more ships follow kinematics
Method predicts the safety speed of ship, includes the following steps:
Step 1: the route speed and distance to go data for needing to carry out more ship following behavior modelings are obtained, also
There are the information such as thickness, concentration of ice during navigating by water；
Step 2: according to the information such as the route speed information and ice thickness of acquisition, concentration, regression analysis obtains ship in ice formation
The safe speed of navigation；
Step 3: carrying out equation analysis to the resistance situation of ship to the ice of ice formation, the speed of resistance and ship navigation to ice,
The factors such as the thickness of ice carry out simulation analysis, thus obtain ice to the factors such as the resistance and ship route speed of ship, the thickness of ice it
Between relationship；
Step 4: the data of resistance are substituted into Newton's second law the resistance of ship by the ice in extraction step three, will
The quality of ship is also substituted into the formula of Newton's second law by what the information such as the length of ship, width, draft solved
Obtain drag acceleration；
Step 5: establishing more ship following behavior models in ice navigation, then passes through validation error contrast simulation result；
Step 6: according to ship the route speed of the real navigation speed of subsequent time and the subsequent time of model prediction into
Row comparison, and analytical error.
Further, a kind of more ships to be escorted based on ice formation ice breaker follow kinematic method, it is characterised in that:
The ship navigation historical data refers to the data such as distance of the acquisition time prior to prediction time, speed, ice regime of data.
Further, a kind of more ships to be escorted based on ice formation ice breaker follow kinematic method, it is characterised in that:
The historical data of the ship navigation of acquisition is the speed sampling data using 10s as time interval, prediction period 10s.
Further, a kind of more ships to be escorted based on ice formation ice breaker follow kinematic method, it is characterised in that:
The regression analysis relational expression of safe speed in step 2 is defined as follows:
IN=CaIMa+CbIMb+...+CnIMn
Vmax=0.1291IN3-0.6946IN2+1.0329IN+12.1071
Wherein CaIndicate the concentration of a type ice, IMaIndicate the ice multiplier of a type ice, IN indicates ice number, that is, ship is in ice
Security capabilities in the waters of covering.VmaxIndicate the maximum speed that can be navigated by water, that is, safe speed.
Further, a kind of more ships to be escorted based on ice formation ice breaker follow kinematic method, it is characterised in that:
Ice is defined as follows the ship resistance of ship:
In above-mentioned equation, σfIndicate the bending strength of ice, h indicates that the thickness of ice, v indicate the speed of ship, and M indicates the matter of ship
Amount, B indicate beam.
Further, a kind of more ships to be escorted based on ice formation ice breaker follow kinematic method, it is characterised in that:
Using the route speed of history previous moment as mode input data, the route speed at current time as verifying speed, from
And obtain the contrast simulation figure of predetermined speed and actual speed.
Further, a kind of more ships to be escorted based on ice formation ice breaker follow kinematic method, it is characterised in that:
The final more ships established in ice formation follow model to be defined as follows:
vi(n+1)=[λi(v(yi(n))-vi(n))-ai]T+vi(n)
yi(n)=xi-1(n)-xi(n)
vi(n) speed of the i-th ship, λ are indicatediIndicate the sensitivity coefficient of the navigating officer of the i-th ship, v (yi(n)) expression is
Optimal velocity function, yi(n) the distance between two ships, x are indicatedi(n) position of the i-th ship, v are indicatedmaxIndicate maximum safe speed,
hiIndicate safe distance, ξiIndicate the safe distance parameter of the i-th ship.aiIndicate the acceleration for the obstruction being subject to when ice breaker ice-breaking.
Further, a kind of more ships to be escorted based on ice formation ice breaker follow kinematic method, it is characterised in that:
The error analysis calculation formula of step 6 is as follows:
Wherein vmodel,iRepresent the speed of prediction ship navigation, vobs,iThe true value of ship route speed data is represented, n is represented altogether
Choose the number of test data.
Compared with prior art, remarkable advantage includes: that (1) can be used in the theoretical basis of simulation software simulation and accurate
The variation (2) of predetermined speed and distance is selected by the historical data for speed and distance also ice regime, thus into one
Step improves the precision of prediction of model.
The additional aspect of the present invention and advantage will be set forth in part in the description, these will become from the following description
Obviously, or practice through the invention is recognized.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is ice-breaking convoy flow chart of the invention；
Fig. 2 is the video interception that ice-breaking of the invention is escorted；
Fig. 3 is the tracking behavior figure of more ships of the invention in ice formation；
Fig. 4 is that more ships of the invention follow model schematic；
Fig. 5 is the rate pattern comparative result figure of a wherein ship of the invention.
Specific embodiment
With reference to the accompanying drawing and specific example, the present invention is furture elucidated, it should be understood that these examples are merely to illustrate this hair
Bright rather than limit the scope of the invention, after the present invention has been read, those skilled in the art are to of the invention various etc.
The modification of valence form falls within the application range as defined in the appended claims.
Based on ice formation ice breaker escort more ships follow kinematic method, broad flow diagram and its structure chart as shown in Figure 1,
Detailed process the following steps are included:
Step 1: the route speed and distance to go data for needing to carry out more ship following behavior modelings are obtained, also
There are the information such as thickness, concentration of ice during navigating by water；
Step 2: according to the information such as the route speed information and ice thickness of acquisition, concentration, regression analysis obtains ship in ice formation
The safe speed of navigation；
Step 3: carrying out equation analysis to the resistance situation of ship to the ice of ice formation, the speed of resistance and ship navigation to ice,
The factors such as the thickness of ice carry out simulation analysis, thus obtain ice to the factors such as the resistance and ship route speed of ship, the thickness of ice it
Between relationship；
Step 4: the data of resistance are substituted into Newton's second law the resistance of ship by the ice in extraction step three, will
The quality of ship is also substituted into the formula of Newton's second law by what the information such as the length of ship, width, draft solved
Obtain drag acceleration；
Step 5: establishing more ship following behavior models in ice navigation, then passes through validation error contrast simulation result；
Step 6: according to ship the route speed of the real navigation speed of subsequent time and the subsequent time of model prediction into
Row comparison, and analytical error.
In this implementation use-case, ship follows aeronautical data to collect by AIS, and the ship acquired follows aeronautical data
The case where to follow ship to follow the speed, distance and the ice encountered of ice breaker navigation, in this example, which is
10s.The difference at nT moment and n (T+1) moment is predicted time interval, is divided into 10s between the predicted time used in this example.
In order to obtain high quality model prediction as a result, and in order to obtain mode input simulation softward effect more
Close to actual conditions, the aeronautical data for obtaining the data of real navigation and modeling is needed to be compared, to obtain two
The error of person and the validity of analysis model.Ice breaker and follow ship real navigation process as shown in Fig. 2, in figure be shown three
A part of screenshot of ship navigation.
The model is that the model in field is followed to combine foundation with the case where ice with reference to vehicle.The basic think of of the model
Think it is when adjacent preceding ship is bigger than current ship speed, ship is before the navigation crewman of current ship controls ship acceleration advance pursuit to keep
Relationship closely is followed, conversely, navigation crewman control loses way to avoid preceding ship when smaller than the speed of current ship close to preceding ship
With rear foul.The speed and distance of ice breaker and auxiliary ship during escorting by several limitations, firstly, auxiliary ship
Reasonable distance must be kept with ice breaker.On the one hand, the distance between ship should be enough to prevent ship when main warship stops suddenly
It collides.On the other hand, distance should not be too large, and cannot prevent auxiliary ship from being hindered in navigation channel by ice.Secondly as economical
Reason, speed should be high as far as possible, and speed should be lower than safe speed, with the caused hull damage that prevents from freezing.It is covered in ice
More ships of cover area follow model in the available application in shipping field.
The model and the maximum of forefathers' research are a difference in that forefathers do not consider practical ice-breaking navigation in the process not only
There is a ship to be followed by ice breaker navigation, often there are many ships while being followed by ice breaker navigation.Model also only from
The angle of safe distance is set out, and safe speed is also a critically important parameter.The foundation of model facilitates bridge simulator
Simulated environment is more life-like, therefore the safety of ship's navigation is also improved.
Optimal velocity is very common in following model, not only in traffic flow, while in ship following behavior being also
Applicable, however, also needing to consider the safe distance constraint between the maximum safe navigation speed of ship and two ships in ship.It can
Functional relation complicated between navigation is followed to set up predetermined speed and ship.A kind of more ships in ice formation follow model to use
Optimal velocity function is as a point of adjustment:
The calculating process of the limitation of the formula is as follows:
Maximum safe speed is defined as ship in the voyageable maximum speed of ice formation institute, so the thickness of the speed of ship navigation and ice
Degree, concentration etc. have very big relationship, carry out regression analysis according to actual safe navigation data, obtain in ice-covered polo
Sea area can safe navigation speed.The security capabilities that ship navigates by water in ice domain is provided by ice number (IN).It is as given below public
Formula:
IN=CaIMa+CbIMb+...+CnIMn (4)
Then it is obtained using the relationship between polynomial regression analysis ice number (IN) and maximum safe navigation speed as inferior
Shown in formula:
Vmax=0.1291IN3-0.6946IN2+1.0329IN+12.1071 (5)
In the equation above, the normr value being fitted is 25.9133, and expression judges precision, is worth getting over for smaller fitting
Accurately.The mean value of IN is 1.8697, variance 0.0283.In addition to safe speed, safe distance be also one it is highly important because
Element, Calculation of Safety Distance formula are as follows:
Dsafe-ice=xp(tn+τ)-xf(tn+τ)-lp-△D (6)
Safe distance is the factor for having to consider between ship and ship, only travels ability under conditions of the distance of permission
Guarantee the safety and reliability of navigation.The case where considering ice, the thickness of ice is thicker, and the safe distance between two ships is smaller.
Speed is with regard to smaller.The influence of ice not only has an impact to maximum safe speed, but also is showed in a model with the form of resistance, such as
Under:
Mg=ρwgVd=1 × 103g×L×B×D×CB (8)
Wherein L indicates that captain, B indicate that the beam, D indicate the draft and C of shipBIndicate Block Coefficient.
Under ice regime, the navigation rule of ice breaker assistance is mainly the speed and distance abided by between certain ship.This
It is a little to require to be suitable for ice breaker first, because ice breaker can stop even retreating under especially hard ice regime, for example, meeting
When to harder ice regime, between ship and ship safe distance and safe speed for main determinant be ice
The concentration of concentration, ice is higher, and safe distance is smaller, and corresponding speed is also just smaller.More ships under ice coverage condition follow model,
The movement signal graph structure that fleet is navigated by water is as shown in Figure 4 and fleet is as shown in Figure 3 in the following behavior figure of ice navigation.
The ship of traditional ice formation follows model in most cases to the one-sided of safe speed or safe distance
Consider, whether very and model also is built upon on the basis of only two ships, these consider all relatively simple or
It is practical.Since ship is following ice breaker navigation there was only a ship, 3 or more are followed in most cases, at this moment model is just
There is limitation, may just not be available actually.One kind follows ship model just to consider safe speed and peace for more in ice formation
Full distance, and the case where be suitble to more navigation, it also improves a lot for the accuracy of data prediction.To ship subsequent time
Safe speed prediction accuracy it is very high, wherein shown in the following equation of the establishment process of model:
vi(n+1)=[λi(v(yi(n))-vi(n))-ai]T+vi(n) (9)
Wherein vi(n) speed of the i-th ship, λ are indicatediIndicate the sensitivity coefficient of the navigating officer of the i-th ship, v (yi(n)) it indicates
Be optimal velocity function, yi(n) the distance between two ships, x are indicatedi(n) position of the i-th ship, v are indicatedmaxIndicate maximum safety
Speed, hiIndicate safe distance, ξiIndicate the safe distance parameter of the i-th ship.aiIndicate adding for the obstruction being subject to when ice breaker ice-breaking
Speed.The video interception of ship navigation is as shown in Figure 2.
Error analysis calculation formula is as follows:
Wherein vmodel,iRepresent the speed of prediction ship navigation, vobs,iThe true value of ship route speed data is represented, n is represented altogether
Choose the number of test data.The true route speed of the history of the method for the present invention and the comparison diagram of the speed of model emulation simulation are such as
Shown in Fig. 5.
Claims (8)
1. a kind of more ships to be escorted based on ice formation ice breaker follow kinematic method, it is characterised in that: in order to improve navigation simulation
The authenticity and safety of maritime navigation of environment consider the safety speed and distance of ship in the model of proposition；It is returned by multiple linear
Analysis is returned to return safe speed；By the resistance calculation formulae of ice to the thickness of ice, concentration ship speed and acceleration
Influence on degree is analyzed, to further increase the precision of prediction of model and the authenticity of simulation maritime environment.Specific mistake
Journey the following steps are included:
Step 1: obtaining the route speed and distance to go data for needing to carry out more ship following behavior modelings, and there are also navigate
The information such as the thickness of ice, concentration during row；
Step 2: according to the information such as the route speed information and ice thickness of acquisition, concentration, regression analysis obtains ship in ice navigation
Safe speed；
Step 3: carrying out equation analysis to the resistance situation of the ice of ice formation to ship, the speed of resistance and ship navigation to ice, ice
The factors such as thickness carry out simulation analysis, to obtain ice between the factors such as the resistance and ship route speed of ship, the thickness of ice
Relationship；
Step 4: the data of resistance are substituted into Newton's second law, by ship the resistance of ship by the ice in extraction step three
It is obtained in the formula for also substituting into Newton's second law that quality is solved by information such as the length of ship, width, drafts
Drag acceleration；
Step 5: establishing more ship following behavior models in ice navigation, then passes through validation error contrast simulation result；
Step 6: it is carried out pair according to ship in the route speed of the real navigation speed of subsequent time and the subsequent time of model prediction
Than, and analytical error.
2. a kind of more ships to be escorted based on ice formation ice breaker according to claim 1 follow kinematic method, feature exists
In: the ship navigation historical data refers to the data such as distance of the acquisition time prior to prediction time, speed, ice regime of data.
3. a kind of more ships to be escorted based on ice formation ice breaker according to claim 1 follow kinematic method, feature exists
In: the historical data of the ship navigation of acquisition is the speed sampling data using 10s as time interval, prediction period 10s.
4. a kind of more ships to be escorted based on ice formation ice breaker according to claim 1 follow kinematic method, feature exists
In: the regression analysis relational expression of the safe speed in step 2 is defined as follows:
IN=CaIMa+CbIMb+...+CnIMn
Vmax=0.1291IN3-0.6946IN2+1.0329IN+12.1071
Wherein CaIndicate the concentration of a type ice, IMaIndicate that the ice multiplier of a type ice, IN indicate that ice number, that is, ship are covered in ice
Waters in security capabilities.VmaxIndicate the maximum speed that can be navigated by water, that is, safe speed.
5. a kind of more ships to be escorted based on ice formation ice breaker according to claim 1 follow kinematic method, feature exists
In: ice is defined as follows the ship resistance of ship:
In above-mentioned equation, σfIndicate the bending strength of ice, h indicates that the thickness of ice, v indicate the speed of ship, and M indicates the quality of ship, B
Indicate beam.
6. a kind of more ships to be escorted based on ice formation ice breaker according to claim 1 follow kinematic method, feature exists
In: using the route speed of history previous moment as mode input data, the route speed at current time as verifying speed,
To obtain the contrast simulation figure of predetermined speed and actual speed.
7. a kind of more ships to be escorted based on ice formation ice breaker according to claim 1 follow kinematic method, feature exists
In: the final more ships established in ice formation follow model to be defined as follows:
vi(n+1)=[λi(v(yi(n))-vi(n))-ai]T+vi(n)
yi(n)=xi-1(n)-xi(n)
vi(n) speed of the i-th ship, λ are indicatediIndicate the sensitivity coefficient of the navigating officer of the i-th ship, v (yi(n)) what is indicated is optimal
Velocity function, yi(n) the distance between two ships, x are indicatedi(n) position of the i-th ship, v are indicatedmaxIndicate maximum safe speed, hiTable
Show safe distance, ξiIndicate the safe distance parameter of the i-th ship.aiIndicate the acceleration for the obstruction being subject to when ice breaker ice-breaking.
8. a kind of more ships to be escorted based on ice formation ice breaker according to claim 1 follow kinematic method, feature exists
In: the error analysis calculation formula of step 6 is as follows:
Wherein vmodel,iRepresent the speed of prediction ship navigation, vobs,iThe true value of ship route speed data is represented, n is represented to be chosen altogether
The number of test data.
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Cited By (5)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN111427358A (en) * | 2020-04-16 | 2020-07-17 | 武汉理工大学 | Navigation track control method and system for ship formation and storage medium |
| CN112037582A (en) * | 2020-09-16 | 2020-12-04 | 浙江工业大学 | Cross-sea bridge ship collision early warning method based on risk prediction |
| CN112213948A (en) * | 2020-10-23 | 2021-01-12 | 武汉理工大学 | Ship navigational speed cooperative control method based on MPC |
| CN112396869A (en) * | 2020-11-04 | 2021-02-23 | 武汉理工大学 | Coordinated navigation and early warning method for polar formation ships |
| CN113139318A (en) * | 2021-05-13 | 2021-07-20 | 中国船舶科学研究中心 | Dynamic evaluation method for icebreaking capacity of polar region ship |
-
2019
- 2019-06-12 CN CN201910507317.7A patent/CN110232242A/en active Pending
Non-Patent Citations (1)
| Title |
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| WEIBIN ZHANG等: "A multi-ship following model for icebreaker convoy operations in ice-covered waters", 《OCEAN ENGINEERING》 * |
Cited By (8)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN111427358A (en) * | 2020-04-16 | 2020-07-17 | 武汉理工大学 | Navigation track control method and system for ship formation and storage medium |
| CN111427358B (en) * | 2020-04-16 | 2021-07-13 | 武汉理工大学 | Navigation track control method and system for ship formation and storage medium |
| CN112037582A (en) * | 2020-09-16 | 2020-12-04 | 浙江工业大学 | Cross-sea bridge ship collision early warning method based on risk prediction |
| CN112213948A (en) * | 2020-10-23 | 2021-01-12 | 武汉理工大学 | Ship navigational speed cooperative control method based on MPC |
| CN112213948B (en) * | 2020-10-23 | 2022-06-10 | 武汉理工大学 | Ship navigational speed cooperative control method based on MPC |
| CN112396869A (en) * | 2020-11-04 | 2021-02-23 | 武汉理工大学 | Coordinated navigation and early warning method for polar formation ships |
| CN112396869B (en) * | 2020-11-04 | 2022-07-19 | 武汉理工大学 | Coordinated navigation and early warning method for polar formation ships |
| CN113139318A (en) * | 2021-05-13 | 2021-07-20 | 中国船舶科学研究中心 | Dynamic evaluation method for icebreaking capacity of polar region ship |
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