CN110208876B - Characterization method for cooperative change of radial positions of subtropical zone torrent and polar front torrent - Google Patents
Characterization method for cooperative change of radial positions of subtropical zone torrent and polar front torrent Download PDFInfo
- Publication number
- CN110208876B CN110208876B CN201910514259.0A CN201910514259A CN110208876B CN 110208876 B CN110208876 B CN 110208876B CN 201910514259 A CN201910514259 A CN 201910514259A CN 110208876 B CN110208876 B CN 110208876B
- Authority
- CN
- China
- Prior art keywords
- torrent
- lat
- std
- threshold
- subtropical
- Prior art date
- Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
- Active
Links
Images
Classifications
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G01—MEASURING; TESTING
- G01W—METEOROLOGY
- G01W1/00—Meteorology
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G01—MEASURING; TESTING
- G01W—METEOROLOGY
- G01W1/00—Meteorology
- G01W1/10—Devices for predicting weather conditions
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06F—ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
- G06F30/00—Computer-aided design [CAD]
- G06F30/20—Design optimisation, verification or simulation
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06F—ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
- G06F2111/00—Details relating to CAD techniques
- G06F2111/10—Numerical modelling
Landscapes
- Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
- Environmental & Geological Engineering (AREA)
- Life Sciences & Earth Sciences (AREA)
- Environmental Sciences (AREA)
- Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
- Ecology (AREA)
- Biodiversity & Conservation Biology (AREA)
- Atmospheric Sciences (AREA)
- Theoretical Computer Science (AREA)
- Evolutionary Computation (AREA)
- General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
- General Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
- Geometry (AREA)
- Computer Hardware Design (AREA)
- Information Retrieval, Db Structures And Fs Structures Therefor (AREA)
Abstract
The invention discloses a characterization method for cooperative change of radial positions of a subtropical torrent and a polar front torrent, which comprises the following steps of determining a torrent core, determining a torrent active region, calculating and standardizing radial position indexes of two torrents, respectively determining high and low thresholds of the radial position indexes of the two torrents by using an accumulated frequency method, and respectively determining four types of radial position cooperative modes of the subtropical torrent and the polar front torrent. The characterization method of the cooperative change of the radial positions of the subtropical torrent and the extreme torrent has indication significance for discussing the effect and early symptoms of the cooperative change of the high-altitude torrent on the processes of large-range precipitation and continuous abnormal temperature in the region and forecasting the effect and the early symptoms.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a method for representing the position change of a torrent, in particular to a method for representing the cooperative change of radial positions of a subtropical torrent and a polar front torrent, and belongs to the field of atmospheric science.
Background
The high altitude torrent refers to a narrow strong wind speed zone surrounding the latitude circle at the upper layer of the troposphere and the lower layer of the stratosphere in a medium latitude area, and the wind speed is generally more than 30 meters per second. The high altitude rush current comprises two branches: the location and intensity of the subtropical torrent and extreme torrent have significant seasonal differences and seasonal variations. In the past, most of research and analysis are carried out on the characteristics of single torrent and the climate effect thereof. For the method for characterizing the rapid stream, an intensity index and a radial position index of the rapid stream can be selected.
Research in recent years shows that two rapid flows are considered together to change cooperatively, so that the common activity of cold and warm air can be represented, and the climate state of a downstream area can be influenced more easily. Therefore, from the viewpoint of cooperative change of the two torrent flows, the connection and modulation process between the high-altitude torrent flow and the atmospheric low-frequency far correlation in the middle and high latitude areas is recognized and understood, and the further influence on the climate effect in the downstream areas is of great significance. Before discussing the climate effect, the characterization of the cooperative change of the two torrents needs to be clarified. Most of the characterization methods mentioned in the previous researches are divided into two main categories, the first category is that an EOF decomposition method is used for performing empirical orthogonal decomposition (EOF decomposition) on an average vertical wind field in east Asia region, and the first two main modes are taken to characterize the cooperative change of the two torrents. However, by the characterization method, the intensity cooperation and the position cooperation of the torrent are difficult to distinguish. Moreover, the method of EOF decomposition itself has a large uncertainty. The method depends on latitude and longitude ranges and time intervals of the analysis fields, for example, when the ranges of the space fields are different, the results of EOF decomposition are influenced by different time lengths. The second type is that the latitude value of the maximum west wind in the two torrent active areas is used for representing the radial position index of the torrent, but the representing method is still analyzed for a single torrent, and whether the position relation is the combined action of the two torrents cannot be determined. In addition, most characterization methods consider the annual component of cooperative change of two torrents, but the torrent has strong seasonal characteristics, so that the cooperative change characteristics of the torrent need to be comprehensively analyzed from a finer time scale.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a method for objectively characterizing the cooperative change of the radial positions of the sub-tropical torrent and the polar front torrent, and provides necessary definitions and means for further analyzing the climate effect corresponding to the torrent coupling effect.
In order to solve the technical problem, the characterization method for the cooperative change of the radial positions of the subtropical torrent and the polar front torrent comprises the following steps: calculating a global area range by using 300hPa full wind speed day by day or 6 hours to obtain a wind speed large value center, marking the wind speed large value center with the central wind speed value of the wind speed large value center being more than or equal to 30m/s or the wind speed values on 8 grid points around the wind speed large value center being less than the wind speed value of the wind speed large value center as a torrent center, utilizing a torrent center distribution diagram of at least 10 years, respectively corresponding the wind speed large value centers corresponding to low latitude and high latitude to active areas of subtropical torrents and extreme torrents, recording latitude ranges of the active areas, representing a latitude average value where the maximum western wind is found in the active area of the subtropical torrent as a radial position index of the subtropical torrent, marking the average value as SJ-lat, and representing the average value where the maximum western wind is found in the active area of the extreme torrent as a radial position index of the extreme torrent as PJ-lat.
Standardizing radial position indexes of extreme torrent of sub-tropical torrent
processing radial position indexes of subtropical torrent and polar torrent by an accumulation frequency method, determining the Std-SJ-lat corresponding to the probability distribution as a High Std-SJ-lat threshold value when the accumulation frequency is 70%, and determining the Std-PJ-lat corresponding to the probability distribution as a High Std-PJ-lat threshold value which is respectively marked as High-threshold-SJ-lat and High-threshold-PJ-lat; when the cumulative frequency is 30%, the Std-SJ-lat corresponding to the probability distribution is determined as a Low Std-SJ-lat threshold, and the Std-PJ-lat corresponding to the probability distribution is determined as a Low Std-PJ-lat threshold, which are respectively marked as Low-threshold-SJ-lat and Low-threshold-PJ-lat.
When Std-PJ-lat is more than or equal to High-threshold-PJ-lat and Std-SJ-lat is more than or equal to High-threshold-SJ-lat, the acute stream of the polar front and the acute stream of the subtropical zone move to the north together and are marked as PJN-SJN.
When Std-PJ-lat is less than or equal to Low-threshold-PJ-lat and Std-SJ-lat is less than or equal to Low-threshold-SJ-lat, the extreme torrent and the subtropical torrent move to the south in a same direction and are marked as PJS-SJS.
When Std-PJ-lat is more than or equal to High-threshold-PJ-lat and Std-SJ-lat is less than or equal to Low-threshold-SJ-lat, the torrential current moves to the north, and the torrential current moves to the south, which is recorded as PJN-SJS.
When Std-PJ-lat is less than or equal to Low-threshold-PJ-lat and Std-SJ-lat is more than or equal to High-threshold-SJ-lat, the torrential torrent moves south, and the torrent of the subtropical zone moves north, which is marked as PJS-SJN.
When studying the range of the pacific region of east asia, the range may be limited to 10-70N, 60-160W.
The method for representing the cooperative change of the radial positions of the extreme torrent and the subtropical torrent has indicating significance for discussing the effect and early symptoms of the cooperative change of the high-altitude torrent on the processes of large-range precipitation and continuous abnormal temperature in the region and forecasting the effect and the early symptoms.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the method of the present invention.
FIG. 2 is a graph of determination of winter torrent nuclear distribution based on ERA-Interim reanalysis data, using a 300hPa full wind speed field in winter in 1979-2016, wherein the shaded area indicates a value greater than 24 times; the solid and dashed boxes represent the active regions of the east Asian subtropical rapids (25-30N, 80-104E) and the extreme rapids (50-60N, 80-100E), respectively.
FIG. 3 shows indexes Std-PJ-lat (a) and Std-SJ-lat (b) normalized in 1979-2016.
FIG. 4 shows the cumulative frequency distribution of Std-PJ-lat.
FIG. 5 shows the cumulative frequency distribution of Std-SJ-lat.
FIG. 6 is a diagram showing four types of radial position co-operation between PJ and SJ based on the high and low thresholds Std-SJ-lat and Std-PJ-lat selected from FIGS. 4 and 5, which correspond to the four corners of the grid area in FIG. 6.
Fig. 7 shows a 300hPa wind field anomaly synthesized in cooperation with years at four radial positions selected from fig. 6, in which a block is an east asian polar front torrent active region, a bar-shaped frame is an east asian subtropical torrent active region, if north is taken as a positive value in the frame region, north is moved, and south is moved if south is taken as a positive value in the frame region, so as to verify the characteristic of cooperation between the radial positions of two torrents.
Detailed Description
In the following, referring to fig. 1 to 7, the method of the present invention is described in detail by taking 1979-2016 winter as an example, the object of analysis is represented by the average data of years. The analyzed object can also be analyzed according to the specific situation by data of day, day and month scale.
Determining radial position indexes of active areas and single branch torrent of extreme torrent and subtropical torrent
The position of the torrent core is determined, the calculation is carried out by utilizing the full wind speed of 300hPa day by day or 6 hours, the center of the wind speed with large value is searched in the range of 10-70 degrees N and 60-160 degrees W in the Taiyang area of east Asia, and if the center meets the following two conditions, the center is marked as the torrent center. The central wind speed value is more than or equal to 30 m/s; and secondly, the wind speed values of 8 grid points around the center are all smaller than the wind speed value of the center.
And determining large-value centers corresponding to low latitude and high latitude respectively corresponding to active areas of the east Asia subtropical torrent and the extreme torrent by utilizing the torrent center distribution map for years, wherein the optimal distribution map is more than 30 years, and recording latitude and longitude ranges of the active areas.
And representing the extreme torrent intensity and the radial position index of the subtropical torrent by using the average value of the latitude where the maximum western wind is found in the two torrent active areas, and respectively recording the average value as PJ-lat and SJ-lat. See fig. 2.
Characterization method for radial position cooperative change of extreme front torrent and subtropical torrent
Determining the position cooperative change of the two torrent flows, and following four steps:
1) standardizing the radial position indexes of the two torrent flows
2) find the basis for judging the strong or weak event
Based on the cumulative frequency method (CFD), i.e. the ratio of the number of occurrences of a variable being smaller than a certain upper limit value to the total number. Can be expressed as:
wherein n is a number of numerical grade numbers divided in a variable value range (namely, a value range between a minimum value and a maximum value). f. ofiIndicating the frequency of occurrence of variables in the ith numerical level, FiThe frequency of the variable in the level not more than the value, namely the frequency of the variable less than or equal to a certain upper limit value.
When the cumulative frequency is 70%, determining the Std-SJ-lat corresponding to the probability distribution as a High Std-SJ-lat threshold, and determining the Std-PJ-lat corresponding to the probability distribution as a High Std-PJ-lat threshold which are respectively marked as High-threshold-SJ-lat and High-threshold-PJ-lat; when the cumulative frequency is 30%, the Std-SJ-lat corresponding to the probability distribution is determined as a Low Std-SJ-lat threshold, and the Std-PJ-lat corresponding to the probability distribution is determined as a Low Std-PJ-lat threshold, which are respectively marked as Low-threshold-SJ-lat and Low-threshold-PJ-lat. See fig. 3, 4, 5.
3) Based on the definition and judgment, the rapid stream radial position is cooperatively divided into four types
When Std-PJ-lat is more than or equal to High-threshold-PJ-lat and Std-SJ-lat is more than or equal to High-threshold-SJ-lat, the acute stream of the polar front and the acute stream of the subtropical zone move to the north together and are marked as PJN-SJN.
When Std-PJ-lat is less than or equal to Low-threshold-PJ-lat and Std-SJ-lat is less than or equal to Low-threshold-SJ-lat, the extreme torrent and the subtropical torrent move to the south in a same direction and are marked as PJS-SJS.
When Std-PJ-lat is more than or equal to High-threshold-PJ-lat and Std-SJ-lat is less than or equal to Low-threshold-SJ-lat, the torrential current moves to the north, and the torrential current moves to the south, which is recorded as PJN-SJS.
When Std-PJ-lat is less than or equal to Low-threshold-PJ-lat and Std-SJ-lat is more than or equal to High-threshold-SJ-lat, the torrential torrent moves south, and the torrent of the subtropical zone moves north, which is marked as PJS-SJN.
See fig. 6, 7.
Claims (4)
1. The characterization method of the cooperative change of the radial positions of the subtropical torrent and the polar front torrent is characterized by comprising the following steps of: calculating the global area range by using 300hPa full wind speed day by day or 6 hours to obtain a wind speed large value center, marking the wind speed large value center of which the central wind speed value is more than or equal to 30m/s or the wind speed values on 8 lattice points around the wind speed large value center are all smaller than the wind speed value of the wind speed large value center as a torrent center, respectively corresponding the wind speed large value centers corresponding to low latitude and high latitude to active areas of subtropical torrent and extreme torrent by using a torrent center distribution diagram of at least 10 years, recording the latitude and longitude ranges, representing the average latitude value of the maximum western wind found in the active area of the sub-tropical torrent as the radial position index of the sub-tropical torrent, marking the average latitude value as SJ-lat, representing the average latitude value of the maximum western wind found in the active area of the extreme torrent as the radial position index of the extreme torrent, and marking the average latitude value as PJ-lat; standardizing radial position indexes of subtropical zone torrent and polar front torrent
processing the radial position indexes of the subtropical torrent and the polar torrent by using an accumulation frequency method, determining the Std-SJ-lat corresponding to the accumulation frequency distribution as a High Std-SJ-lat threshold value when the accumulation frequency is 70%, and determining the Std-PJ-lat corresponding to the accumulation frequency distribution as a High Std-PJ-lat threshold value which is respectively marked as High-threshold-SJ-lat and High-threshold-PJ-lat; when the accumulation frequency is 30%, determining the Std-SJ-lat corresponding to the accumulation frequency distribution as a Low Std-SJ-lat threshold value, and determining the Std-PJ-lat corresponding to the accumulation frequency distribution as a Low Std-PJ-lat threshold value which is respectively marked as Low-threshold-SJ-lat and Low-threshold-PJ-lat;
when Std-PJ-lat is more than or equal to High-threshold-PJ-lat and Std-SJ-lat is more than or equal to High-threshold-SJ-lat, the extreme torrent and the subtropical torrent are in a state of moving to the north;
when Std-PJ-lat is less than or equal to Low-threshold-PJ-lat and Std-SJ-lat is less than or equal to Low-threshold-SJ-lat, the extreme torrent and the subtropical torrent are in a state of moving to the south together;
when Std-PJ-lat is more than or equal to High-threshold-PJ-lat and Std-SJ-lat is less than or equal to Low-threshold-SJ-lat, the extreme torrent moves to the north and the subtropical torrent moves to the south;
when Std-PJ-lat is less than or equal to Low-threshold-PJ-lat and Std-SJ-lat is more than or equal to High-threshold-SJ-lat, the extreme torrential current moves from south to north, and the subtropical torrent moves from north to south.
2. The method of characterizing the synergistic change in radial position of a subtropical torrent and a polar torrent of claim 1, wherein: the global region range is the pacific region of east asia.
3. The method of characterizing the synergistic change in radial position of a subtropical torrent and a polar torrent of claim 2, wherein: the range of the pacific region of east Asia is 10-70 degrees N and 60-160 degrees W.
4. A method of characterising a synergistic change in radial position of sub-tropical torrent and polar front torrent as claimed in claim 1, 2 or 3, characterized in that: a rapid stream center profile of at least 30 years is utilized.
Priority Applications (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201910514259.0A CN110208876B (en) | 2019-06-04 | 2019-06-04 | Characterization method for cooperative change of radial positions of subtropical zone torrent and polar front torrent |
Applications Claiming Priority (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201910514259.0A CN110208876B (en) | 2019-06-04 | 2019-06-04 | Characterization method for cooperative change of radial positions of subtropical zone torrent and polar front torrent |
Publications (2)
| Publication Number | Publication Date |
|---|---|
| CN110208876A CN110208876A (en) | 2019-09-06 |
| CN110208876B true CN110208876B (en) | 2021-03-26 |
Family
ID=67792621
Family Applications (1)
| Application Number | Title | Priority Date | Filing Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201910514259.0A Active CN110208876B (en) | 2019-06-04 | 2019-06-04 | Characterization method for cooperative change of radial positions of subtropical zone torrent and polar front torrent |
Country Status (1)
| Country | Link |
|---|---|
| CN (1) | CN110208876B (en) |
Families Citing this family (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN111882697B (en) * | 2020-07-31 | 2021-11-16 | 中国汽车工程研究院股份有限公司 | Probability mutation rule-based voltage abnormal single body identification algorithm |
Citations (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DE4316557A1 (en) * | 1993-05-18 | 1994-11-24 | Hella Kg Hueck & Co | Device for detecting the degree of misting or icing of a motor vehicle pane (window) |
| CN105468899A (en) * | 2015-11-17 | 2016-04-06 | 天津大学 | Automatic identification and drawing of low-level jet streams based on wind field information of MICAPS |
Family Cites Families (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US7351063B2 (en) * | 2002-08-20 | 2008-04-01 | George Peter T | Jet lag forecaster |
-
2019
- 2019-06-04 CN CN201910514259.0A patent/CN110208876B/en active Active
Patent Citations (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DE4316557A1 (en) * | 1993-05-18 | 1994-11-24 | Hella Kg Hueck & Co | Device for detecting the degree of misting or icing of a motor vehicle pane (window) |
| CN105468899A (en) * | 2015-11-17 | 2016-04-06 | 天津大学 | Automatic identification and drawing of low-level jet streams based on wind field information of MICAPS |
Non-Patent Citations (1)
| Title |
|---|
| 东亚副热带西风急流位置变化及其对中国东部夏季降水异常分布的影响;杜银 等;《大气科学》;20090531;全文 * |
Also Published As
| Publication number | Publication date |
|---|---|
| CN110208876A (en) | 2019-09-06 |
Similar Documents
| Publication | Publication Date | Title |
|---|---|---|
| CN106339775A (en) | Air heavy pollution case judging method based on weather classification and meteorological element clustering | |
| CN111832506B (en) | Remote sensing discrimination method for rebuilding vegetation based on long time sequence vegetation index | |
| CN112394424B (en) | Method for monitoring regional extreme rainfall event | |
| CN106897957B (en) | Automatic weather station real-time data quality control method based on PCA and PSO-E L M | |
| CN112347652B (en) | Heavy rain high risk division method based on linear moment frequency analysis of hydrological region | |
| Spassiani et al. | Application of Self-organizing Maps to classify the meteorological origin of wind gusts in Australia | |
| CN113836808A (en) | PM2.5 deep learning prediction method based on heavy pollution feature constraint | |
| CN110263412B (en) | Characterization method for cooperative variation of intensity and radial position of torrent of subtropical zone or torrent of pole front | |
| CN115718993A (en) | Method and system for optimizing and adjusting SFIP index of aircraft icing | |
| CN110208876B (en) | Characterization method for cooperative change of radial positions of subtropical zone torrent and polar front torrent | |
| CN110245692B (en) | Hierarchical clustering method for collecting numerical weather forecast members | |
| CN115630337A (en) | Quantitative evaluation method and system for extreme rainfall attribution based on large-scale climate remote correlation | |
| CN112907113B (en) | Vegetation change cause identification method considering spatial correlation | |
| CN113610437A (en) | Disaster-bearing body dynamic exposure degree evaluation method and system | |
| CN116628519B (en) | Ecological fragile area identification method and system | |
| CN110263300B (en) | Characterization method for cooperative change of intensity of subtropical zone torrent and extreme torrent | |
| CN108268646B (en) | Method for carrying out quality inspection on encrypted measured temperature value of automatic meteorological station | |
| CN116432032A (en) | Meteorological data abnormal event identification method based on multi-source data and machine learning | |
| CN113821895B (en) | Method and device for constructing power transmission line icing thickness prediction model and storage medium | |
| CN113269464B (en) | Ecological restoration assessment method and ecological restoration assessment device | |
| CN115271332A (en) | Drought monitoring method | |
| Liu et al. | Cluster analysis of tropical cyclones affecting the Taiwan Strait | |
| CN112561140A (en) | China four-season rainfall prediction method based on cooperative change of east Asia subtropical zone torrent and extreme torrent | |
| CN109886497B (en) | Ground air temperature interpolation method based on latitude improved inverse distance weighting method | |
| Rui-Wen et al. | Blacklist Design of AMDAR Temperature Data and Their Application in the CMA-GFS |
Legal Events
| Date | Code | Title | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| GR01 | Patent grant | ||
| GR01 | Patent grant |