CN109885933B - Equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation method based on aerospace task - Google Patents
Equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation method based on aerospace task Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The application relates to an equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation method based on a space mission, which belongs to the technical field of space equipment guarantee and solves the problem of evaluating equipment guarantee characteristics in the space mission; an equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation model of the basic task is established through an evaluation model establishment step; acquiring a current aerospace task through an online evaluation step, decomposing the task into a basic task sequence, and utilizing an established evaluation model; and carrying out equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation of the overall task according to the specific evaluation parameters. The method takes the aerospace task as a drive, takes aerospace equipment as a base, takes equipment guarantee as a core, adopts modeling and online evaluation means to analyze and pre-judge weak links which possibly fail in advance, really improves the success capability of the aerospace launching task, and has obvious benefits.
Description
Technical Field
The application relates to the technical field of aerospace equipment support, in particular to an equipment support characteristic evaluation method based on an aerospace task.
Background
The aerospace equipment is a material technology basis for completing the test and identification of the aerospace equipment, and the problem of guaranteeing the aerospace equipment in the whole life cycle can be solved through researching the guaranteeing characteristics of the aerospace equipment.
The complexity of the aerospace mission requires that the aerospace equipment has diversity and complexity, and in different stages of the aerospace mission, the related aerospace equipment has different requirements on the guarantee characteristics of the aerospace equipment, so that the aerospace equipment guarantee capability needs to be evaluated in order to better and more reliably finish the aerospace mission;
however, due to the high requirement on the standard capability of the aerospace task, the historical data of the aerospace test task is less, and a method for evaluating the security characteristics of aerospace equipment, which can be suitable for the aerospace task, is lacking.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above analysis, the present application aims to provide an equipment security feature evaluation method based on a space mission, which evaluates equipment security features in the space mission through a space equipment security feature evaluation model.
The aim of the application is mainly realized by the following technical scheme:
an equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation method based on a space mission comprises the following steps:
and (3) establishing an evaluation model: acquiring aerospace historical task data, and performing overall task decomposition on the historical tasks to obtain a basic task sequence consisting of a plurality of serial basic tasks; according to equipment, reliability requirements, fault criteria and fault characteristics related to a basic task, establishing an equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation model of the basic task and the turning probability of the basic task in the whole aerospace task, and storing the basic task in a database;
an online evaluation step: acquiring a current aerospace task, decomposing the aerospace task into a serial basic task sequence, and calling an equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation model corresponding to the basic task and the forwarding probability of the basic task from a database; and carrying out equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation of the overall task according to the specific evaluation parameters.
Further, the evaluation model building step includes:
importing the acquired aerospace historical task data into a database to form a historical task database;
carrying out overall task decomposition on the historical tasks to form a basic task sequence consisting of a plurality of basic tasks; classifying historical task data by taking basic tasks and related equipment as indexes to obtain basic task historical data;
and establishing an equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation model of the basic task for the basic task historical data, and calculating the probability of turning in the basic task.
Further, the overall task decomposition includes coarse decomposition and fine decomposition;
the rough decomposition divides the complex task into sub task sequences which are connected end to end in time and are not overlapped with each other in task according to task stage information in the task information data;
the subtotal is used for dividing the subtasks into basic task sequences which are connected end to end in time and are not overlapped with each other in task according to the minimum functional configuration related to the aerospace equipment in the subtasks.
Further, according to the minimum functional configuration of the aerospace equipment, the basic task is divided into a single-loading task completed by the single-task aerospace equipment, a subsystem task completed by an equipment subsystem formed by a plurality of mutually-related single aerospace equipment, and a joint system task completed by an equipment joint system formed by a plurality of mutually-related equipment subsystems;
the built basic task equipment security feature evaluation model correspondingly comprises a single-loading task equipment security feature evaluation model, a subsystem task equipment security feature evaluation model or a combined system equipment security feature evaluation model.
Further, the single-package guarantee characteristic evaluation model comprises an availability model of a single-package task and a single-package task efficiency model;
the availability model of the single-loading task is as follows
The single-loading task efficiency model is M E1 ＝A 01 [R M1 +(1-R M1 )M 01 ]+(1-A 01 )M 01 ；
In the formula, MTBF 1 Mean time between failures for equipment in a single-load task; MLDT 1 The average guarantee delay time of the equipment in the single-loading task comprises the repair maintenance interval, the preventive maintenance interval, the delay time of logistics and management of the single-loading; r is R M1 Task credibility for equipping in the single-loading task; m is M 01 The maintenance degree of the equipment in the single-loading task;
the subsystem task equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation model comprises an availability model of a subsystem task and a subsystem task efficiency model;
the availability model of the subsystem task is as follows:
the subsystem task performance model is as follows: m is M E2 ＝A 02 [R M2 +(1-R M2 )M 02 ]+(1-A 02 )M 02 ；
In the formula, MTBF 2 Is the average inter-fault time of the equipment subsystem in the subsystem task; MLDT 2 The average guarantee delay time of the equipment subsystem in the subsystem task is ensured; r is R M2 The task reliability of the equipment subsystem in subsystem tasks is the task reliability of the equipment subsystem; m is M 02 The maintenance degree of the equipment subsystem in subsystem tasks is determined;
the combined system task equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation model comprises an availability model of a combined system task and a combined system task efficiency model;
the availability model of the joint system task is as follows:
the joint system task performance model is as follows: m is M E3 ＝A 03 [R M3 +(1-R M3 )M 03 ]+(1-A 03 )M 03 ；
In the formula, MTBF 3 Is any combination system in the combination systemAverage inter-fault time in service; MLDT 3 The average guarantee delay time of the combined system in the task of the combined system is; r is R M3 The task reliability of the joint system in the joint system task is determined; m is M 03 Is the maintenance degree of the combined system in the task of the combined system.
Further, the online evaluation step includes:
acquiring a current aerospace task;
decomposing a space mission into a serial basic mission sequence, and calling an equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation model corresponding to the basic mission and a transition probability corresponding to the basic mission from a database;
according to the set evaluation parameters, carrying out equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation of the overall task according to the task sequence of the basic task and the corresponding forwarding probability;
the equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation of the overall task comprises availability evaluation and task efficiency evaluation of the overall task.
Further, the availability evaluation of the overall task adopts the formula:
wherein A is 0 ' availability of overall tasks; MTBF (methyl tert-butyl function) i Average inter-fault time for the ith basic task contained in the overall task; MLDT i An average failure delay time for the ith basic task included in the overall task.
Further, the task performance evaluation method of the overall task comprises the following steps:
1) Setting evaluation parameters;
the method comprises the steps of carrying out initial zero setting on a basic task sequence number, an evaluation count, a task success count and a task failure count, wherein the task success condition of each basic task and the running times of task efficiency evaluation are included;
2) The evaluation count is increased by 1, a basic task with the serial number of 1 is called, and the basic task is judged to be a single-loading task, a subsystem task or a combined system task; according to the established single-loading task equipment security characteristic evaluation model, subsystem task equipment security characteristic evaluation model or combined system equipment security characteristic evaluation model; performing equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation of the basic task to obtain an evaluation result;
3) Judging an evaluation result according to a set task success condition, if judging that the basic task is successful, entering 4), if judging that the basic task is unsuccessful, performing task failure counting once by a task failure counter, stopping the evaluation, and returning to 2);
4) Adding 1 to the basic task sequence number, calling the basic task of the next sequence number, judging whether the next basic task can start smoothly, and entering 5) if the next basic task can start smoothly; if the task cannot start smoothly, the task failure counter counts the task failure once, stops the evaluation, and returns to the step 2);
5) Performing equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation and evaluation result judgment according to the basic task type, continuously performing type judgment, guarantee characteristic evaluation and evaluation result judgment on the basic task in sequence if the basic task is judged to be successful until the last basic task evaluation result is that the task is successful, performing task success counting once by a task success counter, ending the evaluation, and returning to the step 2); if the basic task is judged to be unsuccessful, the task failure counter counts the task failure once, stops the evaluation, and returns to the step 2);
6) Stopping the evaluation until the evaluation count reaches the set operation times, counting the task success count value and the task failure count value, and performing task efficiency evaluation of the whole aerospace task.
Further, the basic task success condition is that the availability of the basic task evaluation result exceeds the availability threshold and the task efficiency exceeds the task efficiency threshold, and the task quantity completed within the set basic task completion time reaches the task quantity threshold.
Further, the condition of the successful start of the next basic task is that the task has a transition probability P i Greater than the smooth start probability threshold.
The application has the following beneficial effects:
the equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation method based on the aerospace task starts from the top-level requirements of high integrity of the aerospace equipment and high success of the aerospace task, takes the aerospace task as a drive, takes the aerospace equipment as a base, takes equipment guarantee as a core, is close to real scenes and environments, real equipment and guarantee, real use conditions and maintenance conditions of the actual combat simulation execution aerospace task, adopts modeling and online evaluation means to analyze and pre-judge weak links which possibly fail in advance, can find problems and solve the problems before the task, ensures high reliability and high integrity, practically improves the success capability of the aerospace launching task, and has obvious benefits.
Additional features and advantages of the application will be set forth in the description which follows, and in part will be obvious from the description, or may be learned by practice of the application. The objectives and other advantages of the application will be realized and attained by the structure particularly pointed out in the written description and claims thereof as well as the appended drawings.
Drawings
The drawings are only for purposes of illustrating particular embodiments and are not to be construed as limiting the application, like reference numerals being used to refer to like parts throughout the several views.
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of an equipment support characteristic evaluation method based on an aerospace mission in an embodiment of the application;
FIG. 2 is a flowchart illustrating overall task performance evaluation according to an embodiment of the present application.
Detailed Description
Preferred embodiments of the present application are described in detail below with reference to the attached drawing figures, which form a part of the present application and are used in conjunction with embodiments of the present application to illustrate the principles of the present application.
The embodiment discloses an equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation method based on a space mission, which comprises the following steps as shown in fig. 1:
and (3) establishing an evaluation model: acquiring aerospace historical task data, and performing overall task decomposition on the historical tasks to obtain a basic task sequence consisting of a plurality of serial basic tasks; according to equipment, reliability requirements, fault criteria and fault characteristics related to a basic task, establishing an equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation model of the basic task and the turning probability of the basic task in the whole aerospace task, and storing the basic task in a database;
an online evaluation step: acquiring a current aerospace task, decomposing the aerospace task into a serial basic task sequence, and calling an equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation model corresponding to the basic task obtained by decomposition and the forwarding probability of the basic task from a database; and carrying out equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation of the overall task according to the specific evaluation parameters, and providing basis for carrying out reasonable equipment comprehensive guarantee configuration for executing the aerospace task.
Specifically, the step of establishing the evaluation model includes:
s1-1, importing the acquired aerospace historical task data into a database to form a historical task database;
the historical task data comprises task process data, aerospace equipment data and aerospace equipment guarantee characteristic data
Specific historical data include:
the task process data includes: task stage, task section, task content, task time, task constraint, task quantity, task success condition, processing of emergency in task execution and other information;
the aerospace equipment data includes: equipment basic information, equipment function data, equipment structure data, equipment-related document data, and equipment technical state data;
the aerospace equipment security characteristic data includes: space equipment reliability data, space equipment maintainability data, space equipment assurances data and the like.
Wherein the aerospace equipment reliability data comprises: reliability design data, reliability modeling data, fault tree analysis data, reliability block diagram data, fault mode influence analysis data, event tree analysis ETA data and use process reliability data of the aerospace equipment;
the aerospace equipment serviceability data includes: maintainability design data, fault mode influence analysis data, maintenance task data and use process maintainability data of the aerospace equipment;
the aerospace equipment security data includes: the method comprises the following steps of guaranteeing design data, using process guaranteeing data, guaranteeing resource data and guaranteeing task demand data of the aerospace equipment;
s1-2, performing overall task decomposition on historical tasks to form a basic task sequence consisting of a plurality of basic tasks; and establishing a corresponding relation between the basic task and the equipment, classifying the historical data of the historical task database by taking the task content and the related equipment as indexes, and obtaining the basic task historical data.
Specifically, the overall task decomposition includes coarse decomposition and fine decomposition;
in the rough decomposition process, according to task stage information in task process data, dividing a complex task into sub-task sequences which are connected end to end in time and are not overlapped with each other in task, and determining task constraint information including task start-stop time, task quantity and the like of each sub-task, and related aerospace equipment data and aerospace equipment guarantee characteristic data; establishing a corresponding relation between a subtask and aerospace equipment, classifying historical data of a historical task database by taking subtask content and related aerospace equipment as indexes to obtain the subtask historical data;
in the sub-division process, dividing the subtasks into basic task sequences which are connected end to end in time and are not overlapped with each other in tasks according to the minimum functional configuration of the subtasks related to the aerospace equipment, and extracting attribute information of the basic tasks from the subtask historical data;
wherein the attribute information includes task constraint information and aerospace equipment data;
the task constraint information comprises information such as task start-stop time, task quantity and the like;
the aerospace equipment data are aerospace equipment data related to the execution of basic tasks and equipment guarantee characteristic data;
the basic task and the related aerospace equipment are corresponding, the corresponding relation between the basic task and the aerospace equipment is established, the aerospace equipment related to the task is determined, the subtask historical data are classified by taking the basic task content and the related aerospace equipment as indexes, and the basic task historical data are obtained.
Specifically, according to the minimum functional configuration of the aerospace equipment, the basic task types can be divided into single-loading tasks completed by single-task aerospace equipment; or subsystem tasks performed for an equipment subsystem consisting of a number of interrelated single aerospace equipment; or a joint system task performed for an equipment joint system consisting of a plurality of interrelated equipment subsystems;
the basic task historical data comprise the historical data such as equipment, reliability requirements, fault criteria, fault characteristics and the like related to the basic task.
S1-3, establishing an equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation model of a basic task for the history data of the basic task;
because the basic tasks include single-load tasks, subsystem tasks, or joint system tasks; the built basic task equipment security feature evaluation model correspondingly comprises a single-loading task equipment security feature evaluation model, a subsystem task equipment security feature evaluation model or a combined system task equipment security feature evaluation model.
The method comprises the steps that a single-package guarantee characteristic evaluation model is established according to space equipment data and space equipment guarantee characteristic data included in single-package task historical data through task efficiency analysis of a single-package task;
the availability model of the single-loading task is as follows
The efficiency model of the single-loading task is M E1 ＝A 01 [R M1 +(1-R M1 )M 01 ]+(1-A 01 )M 01 ；
In the formula, MTBF 1 Mean time between failures for equipment in a single-load task;
MLDT 1 average guaranteed delay times for equipment in a single-package task, including, for example, repair maintenance intervals, preventive maintenance intervals, logistical and administrative delay times for single-package;
R M1 to be equipped with a single-loading taskTask credibility in (3);
M 01 for the maintenance of the equipment in the single-loading task.
The method comprises the steps that a subsystem task equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation model is established, wherein the guarantee characteristic evaluation model comprises subsystem availability and task efficiency according to space equipment data and space equipment guarantee characteristic data in an equipment subsystem related to subsystem historical task data through task efficiency analysis of subsystem tasks;
the availability model of the subsystem task is as follows:
the subsystem task performance model is: m is M E2 ＝A 02 [R M2 +(1-R M2 )M 02 ]+(1-A 02 )M 02 ；
In the formula, MTBF 2 Is the average time between failures of the equipment subsystem in the subsystem tasks, i.e., the operational time of the aerospace equipment subsystem performing the tasks,
MLDT 2 the average guarantee delay time of the equipment subsystem in the subsystem task, namely the non-working time of the aerospace equipment subsystem for executing the task, such as repair maintenance intervals, preventive maintenance intervals, logistical and management delay time of the equipment subsystem;
for the calculation of the average fault interval time and the average guarantee delay time of the subsystem, reference can be made to the Duane model adopted by MTBF or the field maintenance rate-based calculation model adopted by MLDT.
R M2 The task reliability of the equipment subsystem in subsystem tasks is the task reliability of the whole equipment subsystem;
M 02 the maintenance degree of the equipment subsystem in subsystem tasks is the maintenance degree of a certain equipment subsystem.
The method comprises the steps that a combined system task equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation model is established, wherein the combined system task is subjected to task efficiency analysis, and a guarantee characteristic evaluation model comprising the combined system availability and task efficiency is built according to space equipment data and space equipment guarantee characteristic data in an equipment combined system related to historical task data;
the availability model of the joint system task is as follows:
the joint system task performance model is: m is M E3 ＝A 03 [R M3 +(1-R M3 )M 03 ]+(1-A 03 )M 03 ；
In the formula, MTBF 3 The average fault interval time of the joint system in the joint system task is the working time of a certain aerospace equipment joint system for executing the task; not the workable time of a piece of equipment;
MLDT 3 the average guarantee delay time of the combined system in the task of the combined system, namely the non-working time of the combined system of certain spaceflight equipment for executing the task, for example, the delay time including repair maintenance interval, preventive maintenance interval, logistics and management of the combined system;
R M3 the task reliability of the joint system in the joint system task is the task reliability of a certain joint system;
M 03 the maintenance degree of the combined system in the task of the combined system is the maintenance degree of a certain combined system.
And simultaneously, the equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation model of the basic task is generated, and meanwhile, the turning probability P of the basic task in the whole space task is calculated, wherein the turning probability P is the available probability AS of space equipment related to the basic task at the starting moment of the basic task.
Specifically, the online evaluation step includes:
s2-1, acquiring a current aerospace task;
s2-2, decomposing the space mission into a serial basic mission sequence, and calling an equipment support characteristic evaluation model corresponding to the basic mission and a transition probability corresponding to the basic mission from a database;
the specific task decomposition method is the same as the method in the step S1-2, and after decomposition, the task decomposition method is divided into basic task sequences which are continuous in time and are not overlapped with each other in task. The basic task sequence number in the sequence is i, and each time node t in the sequence i Representing basic task M i Latest end time point of (1) and basic task M i+1 The latest start time of (a), the time period (T) between nodes i Is a time constraint on the basic task;
due to the diversity of tasks, different basic tasks have different task amounts W i Such as the number of miles, the number of shots. It is necessary to convert these task amounts into generalized working time T i Unifying the units of task calendar time;
specifically, generalized operating time T i ＝W i λ, where λ is a conversion coefficient, determined on the basis of statistics according to different task types. For example, the task amount unit corresponding to the chassis system is kilometers, and other functional systems are similar.
According to the decomposed basic task sequence, the equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation model corresponding to each basic task and the conversion probability P corresponding to the basic task are called from the database i ；
And S2-3, according to the set evaluation parameters, evaluating the equipment guarantee characteristics of the whole task according to the task sequence of the basic task and the corresponding turning probability.
The equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation of the overall task comprises the usability evaluation of the overall task and the task efficiency evaluation of the overall task.
Wherein the availability A of the overall task 0 ' mean time between failure MTBF per basic task based on constituent overall tasks i And average fault delay time MLDT i ；
Availability of overall tasks
In the formula, MTBF i Average inter-fault time for the ith basic task contained in the overall task;
MLDT i an average failure delay time for the ith basic task included in the overall task.
Specifically, as shown in fig. 2, the task performance evaluation method includes:
1) Setting evaluation parameters;
the method comprises the steps of carrying out initial zero setting on a basic task sequence number, an evaluation count, a task success count and a task failure count, wherein the task success condition of each basic task and the running times of task efficiency evaluation are included;
2) The evaluation count is increased by 1, a basic task with the serial number of 1 is called, and the basic task is judged to be a single-loading task, a subsystem task or a combined system task; according to the established single-loading task equipment security characteristic evaluation model, subsystem task equipment security characteristic evaluation model or combined system equipment security characteristic evaluation model; performing equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation of the basic task to obtain an evaluation result;
3) Judging an evaluation result according to a set task success condition, if judging that the basic task is successful, entering 4), if judging that the basic task is unsuccessful, performing task failure counting once by a task failure counter, stopping the evaluation, and returning to 2);
4) Adding 1 to the basic task sequence number, calling the basic task of the next sequence number, judging whether the next basic task can start smoothly, and entering 5) if the next basic task can start smoothly; if the task cannot start smoothly, the task failure counter counts the task failure once, stops the evaluation, and returns to the step 2);
5) Performing equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation and evaluation result judgment according to the basic task type, continuously performing type judgment, guarantee characteristic evaluation and evaluation result judgment on the basic task in sequence if the basic task is judged to be successful until the last basic task evaluation result is that the task is successful, performing task success counting once by a task success counter, ending the evaluation, and returning to the step 2); if the basic task is judged to be unsuccessful, the task failure counter counts the task failure once, stops the evaluation, and returns to the step 2);
6) Stopping the evaluation until the evaluation count reaches the set operation times, counting the task success count value and the task failure count value, and performing task efficiency evaluation of the whole aerospace task.
Wherein the task success condition of the basic task comprises that the availability of the basic task evaluation result exceeds the availability threshold and the task efficiency exceeds the task efficiency threshold, and the task quantity completed within the set basic task completion time reaches the task quantity threshold
Wherein, the condition for judging whether the next basic task can start smoothly is that the transition probability P of the basic task i If the probability is larger than the successful start probability threshold, the next basic task starts smoothly, otherwise, the evaluation is stopped.
Preferably, by the method of the embodiment, subtasks can be obtained by coarse decomposition in task decomposition, equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation is performed, so that attention is conveniently paid to a certain task stage of the space launching task, the equipment guarantee characteristic is evaluated, problems are found, the problems are solved, high reliability and high integrity are ensured, and the success capability of the space launching task is practically improved.
The present application is not limited to the above-mentioned embodiments, and any changes or substitutions that can be easily understood by those skilled in the art within the technical scope of the present application are intended to be included in the scope of the present application.
Claims (3)
1. The equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation method based on the aerospace task is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
and (3) establishing an evaluation model: acquiring aerospace historical task data, and performing overall task decomposition on the historical tasks to obtain a basic task sequence consisting of a plurality of serial basic tasks; according to the aerospace equipment, reliability requirements, fault criteria and fault characteristics related to a basic task, establishing an equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation model of the basic task; meanwhile, the probability of the basic task in the whole space mission is calculated; storing the equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation model and the forwarding probability of the basic task in a database;
the evaluation model building step comprises the following steps:
s1-1, importing the acquired aerospace historical task data into a database to form a historical task database;
the historical task data comprise task process data, aerospace equipment data and aerospace equipment guarantee characteristic data;
the task process data comprises task stages, task profiles, task contents, task time, task constraint, task quantity, task success conditions and processing of emergency events in task execution;
the aerospace equipment data comprises equipment basic information, equipment function data, equipment structure data, equipment related document data and equipment technical state data;
the aerospace equipment guarantee characteristic data comprise aerospace equipment reliability data, aerospace equipment maintainability data and aerospace equipment guarantee data;
wherein the aerospace equipment reliability data comprises: reliability design data, reliability modeling data, fault tree analysis data, reliability block diagram data, fault mode influence analysis data, event tree analysis ETA data and use process reliability data of the aerospace equipment;
the aerospace equipment serviceability data includes: maintainability design data, fault mode influence analysis data, maintenance task data and use process maintainability data of the aerospace equipment;
the aerospace equipment security data includes: the method comprises the following steps of guaranteeing design data, using process guaranteeing data, guaranteeing resource data and guaranteeing task demand data of the aerospace equipment;
s1-2, performing overall task decomposition on historical tasks to form a basic task sequence consisting of a plurality of serial basic tasks; establishing a corresponding relation between a basic task and related aerospace equipment, classifying historical data of a historical task database by taking basic task content and related aerospace equipment as indexes, and obtaining basic task historical data;
the overall task decomposition comprises coarse decomposition and fine decomposition;
in the rough decomposition process, according to task stage information in task process data, dividing a complex task into sub-task sequences which are connected end to end in time and are not overlapped with each other in task; the subtask sequence comprises task constraint information consisting of the start-stop time and the task quantity of each subtask, related aerospace equipment data and aerospace equipment guarantee characteristic data; establishing a corresponding relation between the subtasks and the related aerospace equipment, classifying the historical data of the historical task database by taking the subtask content and the related aerospace equipment as indexes to obtain the subtask historical data;
in the sub-division process, dividing the subtasks into basic task sequences which are connected end to end in time and are not overlapped with each other in the task according to the minimum functional configuration of the related aerospace equipment in the subtasks, and extracting attribute information of the basic tasks from the subtask historical data;
wherein the attribute information comprises constraint information of a basic task and aerospace equipment data;
the task constraint information comprises the starting and stopping time and the task quantity of a basic task;
the aerospace equipment data are aerospace equipment data related to basic task execution and equipment guarantee characteristic data;
corresponding basic tasks and related aerospace equipment, establishing a corresponding relation between the basic tasks and the related aerospace equipment, determining the aerospace equipment related to the basic tasks, classifying sub-task historical data by taking basic task content and the related aerospace equipment as indexes, and obtaining basic task historical data;
according to the minimum functional configuration of the aerospace equipment related to the basic task, the basic task type is divided into single-loading tasks completed by single-task aerospace equipment; or subsystem tasks performed for an equipment subsystem consisting of several interrelated single aerospace equipment; or a joint system task performed for an equipment joint system consisting of a plurality of interrelated equipment subsystems;
the basic task historical data comprises historical data composed of basic task related aerospace equipment, reliability requirements, fault criteria and fault characteristics;
s1-3, establishing an equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation model of a basic task for the history data of the basic task;
the basic tasks comprise a single-loading task, a subsystem task or a combined system task; the built basic task equipment security feature evaluation model also correspondingly comprises a single-loading task equipment security feature evaluation model, a subsystem task equipment security feature evaluation model or a combined system task equipment security feature evaluation model;
the method comprises the steps that a single-package guarantee characteristic evaluation model is established according to space equipment data and space equipment guarantee characteristic data included in single-package task historical data through task efficiency analysis of a single-package task, and the guarantee characteristic evaluation model comprising single-package availability and task efficiency components is established;
the availability model of the single-loading task is as follows；
The single-loading task efficiency model is as follows；
In the method, in the process of the application,average time between failures of the aerospace equipment in a single-loading task; />Average guarantee delay time of the aerospace equipment in a single-package task comprises repair maintenance intervals, preventive maintenance intervals and delay time of logistics and management of the single package;
task credibility of the space equipment in a single-loading task;
the maintenance degree of the aerospace equipment in a single-loading task is achieved;
the method comprises the steps that a subsystem task equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation model is established, wherein the guarantee characteristic evaluation model comprises subsystem availability and task efficiency components according to space equipment data and space equipment guarantee characteristic data in related equipment subsystems in subsystem historical task data through task efficiency analysis of subsystem tasks;
the availability model of the subsystem task is as follows:；
the subsystem task performance model is:；
in the method, in the process of the application,is the average inter-fault time of the equipment subsystem in the subsystem task;
the average guarantee delay time of the equipment subsystem in subsystem tasks comprises repairable maintenance intervals, preventive maintenance intervals and logistic and management delay time of the equipment subsystem;
task reliability of the equipment subsystem in subsystem tasks;
the maintenance degree of the equipment subsystem in subsystem tasks is determined;
the method comprises the steps that a combined system task equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation model is established, wherein the guarantee characteristic evaluation model comprises the combined system availability and task efficiency components according to space equipment data and space equipment guarantee characteristic data in an equipment combined system related to historical task data by performing task efficiency analysis on a combined system task;
the availability model of the joint system task is as follows:；
the joint system task performance model is:；
in the method, in the process of the application,is the average inter-fault time of the joint system in the joint system task;
the average guarantee delay time of the combined system in the task of the combined system comprises repair maintenance intervals, preventive maintenance intervals and delay time of logistics and management of the combined system;
the task reliability of the joint system in the joint system task is obtained;
the maintenance degree of the combined system in the task of the combined system is as follows;
while generating an equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation model of the basic task, calculating the transition probability P of the basic task in the whole aerospace task, wherein the transition probability P is the available probability of the aerospace equipment related to the basic task at the starting moment of the basic task;
an online evaluation step: acquiring a current aerospace task, decomposing the aerospace task into basic task sequences which are continuous in time and non-overlapping in task, and calling an equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation model corresponding to the basic task and the conversion probability of the basic task from a database; according to the specific evaluation parameters, carrying out equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation of the overall task;
the online evaluation step includes:
acquiring a current aerospace task;
decomposing a space mission into a serial basic mission sequence, and calling an equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation model corresponding to the basic mission and a transition probability corresponding to the basic mission from a database;
according to the set evaluation parameters, carrying out equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation of the overall task according to the task sequence of the basic task and the corresponding forwarding probability;
the equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation of the overall task comprises availability evaluation and task efficiency evaluation of the overall task;
the task efficiency evaluation method of the overall task comprises the following steps:
1) Setting evaluation parameters;
the method comprises the steps of carrying out initial zero setting on a basic task sequence number, an evaluation count, a task success count and a task failure count, wherein the task success condition of each basic task and the running times of task efficiency evaluation are included;
2) The evaluation count is increased by 1, a basic task with the serial number of 1 is called, and the basic task is judged to be a single-loading task, a subsystem task or a combined system task; according to the established single-task equipment security feature evaluation model, subsystem task equipment security feature evaluation model or combined system equipment security feature evaluation model, performing equipment security feature evaluation of a basic task to obtain an evaluation result;
3) Judging an evaluation result according to a set task success condition, if judging that the basic task is successful, entering 4), if judging that the basic task is unsuccessful, performing task failure counting once by a task failure counter, stopping the evaluation, and returning to 2);
4) Adding 1 to the basic task sequence number, calling the basic task of the next sequence number, judging whether the next basic task can start smoothly, and entering 5) if the next basic task can start smoothly; if the task cannot start smoothly, the task failure counter counts the task failure once, stops the evaluation, and returns to the step 2);
the condition of the next basic task can be smoothly started is that the probability of the basic task to turnP i Greater than a smooth onset probability threshold;
5) Performing equipment guarantee characteristic evaluation and evaluation result judgment according to the basic task type, continuously performing type judgment, guarantee characteristic evaluation and evaluation result judgment on the basic task in sequence if the basic task is judged to be successful until the last basic task evaluation result is that the task is successful, performing task success counting once by a task success counter, ending the evaluation, and returning to the step 2); if the basic task is judged to be unsuccessful, the task failure counter counts the task failure once, stops the evaluation, and returns to the step 2);
6) Stopping the evaluation until the evaluation count reaches the set operation times, counting the task success count value and the task failure count value, and performing task efficiency evaluation of the whole aerospace task.
2. The equipment assurance characteristic evaluation method of claim 1, wherein the availability evaluation of the overall task employs a formulaThe method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the In (1) the->Availability for the overall task; />Is the first contained in the overall taskiAverage inter-fault time of individual basic tasks; />Is the first contained in the overall taskiAverage failure delay time of individual basic tasks.
3. The equipment support characteristic evaluation method according to claim 2, wherein the basic task success condition is that the availability of the basic task evaluation result exceeds an availability threshold and the task performance exceeds a task performance threshold, and the amount of tasks completed within a set basic task completion time reaches a task amount threshold.
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