CN109784782A - Electric power supply system for subway dynamic risk analysis appraisal procedure based on fuzzy reasoning - Google Patents
Electric power supply system for subway dynamic risk analysis appraisal procedure based on fuzzy reasoning Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The electric power supply system for subway dynamic risk analysis appraisal procedure based on fuzzy reasoning that the present invention relates to a kind of, includes at least: the power supply section of orbital position where S1, foundation target train determines the DC Feeder Cable and return cable of target DC substation；The Risk of Communication chain that S2, the direct current cables for establishing electric power supply system for subway puncture, and determine the key feature amount of DC Feeder Cable in the Risk of Communication chain；S3, using the key feature numerical quantity of the DC Feeder Cable of acquisition as numerical value vector, pass through fuzzy reasoning method and carry out fuzzy set calculating, obtain the subordinating degree function figure of corresponding numerical value vector；S4, a possibility that direct current cables breakdown observation chart is obtained according to the subordinating degree function figure reasoning of each numerical value vector.This method can reasonable assessment system risk level, block the propagation of Risk of Communication chain to develop, to avoid the generation of major accident as far as possible.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the risk analysis technologies of electric power supply system for subway, and in particular to a kind of subway confession based on fuzzy reasoning
Electric system dynamic risk analysis appraisal procedure.
Background technique
With the high speed development of China's subway, the operational safety problem of subway causes the highest attention of people.The confession of subway
Power resources of the electric system as subway train are mainly responsible for and provide lasting power to train to guarantee that train stablizes fortune
Row.According to statistics, subway is number two in all causes of accident since safety accident occurs for power supply factor in recent years, and once supplies
Electric system breaks down, and not only results in being unable to run for train, it is also possible to can jeopardize passenger safety, cause serious consequence.
Therefore the security risk problem of electric power supply system for subway is particularly important, and scholars expand correlative study work thus, from static wind
Danger analysis assessment is assessed to dynamic risk analysis, and analyzing evaluation method is in continuous evolution.
Carried out numerous studies for the risk analysis appraisal procedure domestic and foreign scholars of rail traffic, achieve it is many at
Fruit.Such as document " electric power supply system for subway reliability design " (the evident woods of grandson, He Ying modern city rail traffic, 2006 (1): 14-16)
Application failure tree and fault mode consequences analysis have carried out the analysis of reliability to power supply system, further through Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment
Safety evaluation is carried out to power supply system.Document " Distribution System Reliability Cost/Worth
Analysis Using Analytical And Sequential Simulation Techniques》(Billinton R,
Wang P.IEEE Transactions on Power Systems Pwrs, 1998,13 (4): 1245-1250.) it is special using covering
Caro method, using element failure rate and fault correction time, load and unit interruption cost are all made of averaging model
To carry out probability analysis.Document " Power System Operating Reliability Evaluation based on real-time running state " (Sun Yuanzhang, Cheng Lin, Liu
Great waves electric power network technique, 2005,29 (15): 6-12) analyze the real-time operating conditions such as Line Flow, busbar voltage, system frequency
Influence to element outage probability establishes the reliability model of unit based on real-time operating condition, and considers the fortune of unit
The influence of the real-time operating conditions to fault effects analysis such as variation of line mode, the real-time change of load, network structure.Document
《On-line Risk-Based Security Assessment》(Ni M,Mccalley J D,Member S,et
Al.IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.2003:258--265) devise static voltage stability boundary, section
The severity of loss expression formula of point voltage, cascading failure and Line Flow, and give corresponding risk indicator.
In current research, most of evaluation methods are all static analyses, are divided under a certain particular state risk
Analysis, is studied in terms of component degradation and element failure rate two, and the data of use are mostly historical data statistics or cover special
The method of Caro test obtains.Such method can to the risk of system carry out it is a degree of portray, but its drawback be can not
The Risk of Communication evolutionary process of reflection system, is especially a lack of the description of failure mechanism.
Summary of the invention
It is an object of the invention to propose a kind of electric power supply system for subway dynamic risk analysis assessment side based on fuzzy reasoning
Method, this method utilize risk assessment thought by probability of malfunction in conjunction with severity, and description electric power supply system for subway key risk is propagated
Chain process proposes the effective risk control measure for being directed to risk source, to reduce the operation risk of electric power supply system for subway, improves
Subway circulation safety.
To achieve the above object, the technical scheme adopted by the invention is that a kind of electric power supply system for subway based on fuzzy reasoning
Dynamic risk analysis appraisal procedure includes at least following step:
S1, according to the power supply section of orbital position where target train, determine corresponding target DC traction substation and
Its Traction networks determines the DC Feeder Cable and return cable of target DC substation；
The Risk of Communication chain that S2, the direct current cables for establishing electric power supply system for subway puncture, and determine the Risk of Communication chain
The key feature amount of DC Feeder Cable in item, the key feature amount include direct current cables insulation resistance R, voltage U and cable
Leakage Current Ie, formula R=U/Ie；
S3, using the key feature numerical quantity of the DC Feeder Cable of acquisition as numerical value vector, by fuzzy reasoning method into
Row fuzzy set calculates, and obtains the subordinating degree function figure of corresponding numerical value vector；
S4, the observation of a possibility that direct current cables breakdown is obtained according to the subordinating degree function figure reasoning of each numerical value vector
Figure comments target train in the fault rate of power supply section.
Wherein, the Risk of Communication chain is described as the temperature difference and after wet environment causes cable insulation aging, and cable passes through
When transient overvoltage, lead to cable insulation weak spot instantaneous breakdown, cable reveals a large amount of electric currents；In cable insulation aging, directly
Insulating resistance of cable R is flowed to reduce；
In the Risk of Communication chain, the calculation formula of cable Leakage Current Ie are as follows: Ie=Ii-Io；Wherein, Ii is cable
Input terminal electric current, Io are output electric current, and substituting into relational expression is R=U/ (Ii-Io).
The key feature amount of Risk of Communication chain of the present invention describes electric power supply system for subway Risk of Communication mistake with fuzzy reasoning
Journey can clearly describe failure mechanism and generating process, so that the generation in source of controlling risk, blocking Risk of Communication chain, mention
The stability and safety of high system operation.
In an improved technical solution, the method also includes following step:
S5, subway network of the building based on graph theory and network theory, analyze visitor when certain is broken down in subway network
The propagation of stream, which is developed, runs bring severity degree to subway network；
Consequence after the failure that S6, the fault rate in conjunction with step S4 reasoning acquisition and step S5 are obtained occurs is tight
Weight degree, Comprehensive Assessment risk indicator size.
Further, further include S7, according to analysis assessment result take Forewarning Measures, i.e., be more than 3500V in voltage cable
When issue remind check overtension the reason of.
The method of the present invention is that the dynamic risk analysis for puncturing Risk of Communication chain for electric power supply system for subway direct current cables is commented
Estimate method, the risk analysis study on assessing method electric power supply system for subway key risk propagation chain based on characteristic quantity and fuzzy reasoning
The dynamic risk of item, using risk assessment thought by probability of malfunction in conjunction with severity, describe electric power supply system for subway key risk
Chain process is propagated, proposes the effective risk control measure for being directed to risk source, the propagation of Risk of Communication chain is blocked to develop, thus
The generation for avoiding major accident as far as possible reduces the operation risk of electric power supply system for subway, improves subway circulation safety, to guarantee
The optimization of the safe and stable operation of Regional Rail Transit system and whole capacity, which is promoted, provides support.
Detailed description of the invention
To describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention more clearly, make required in being described below to embodiment
Attached drawing is briefly introduced, it should be apparent that, drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the invention, for this
For the those of ordinary skill in field, without creative efforts, others can be also obtained according to these attached drawings
Attached drawing.
Fig. 1 is Subway DC Traction structure chart；
Fig. 2 is a kind of embodiment schematic diagram of the method for the present invention；
Fig. 3 is that electric power supply system for subway direct current cables of the present invention punctures Risk of Communication chain schematic diagram；
Fig. 4 is direct current cables insulation resistance subordinating degree function figure；
Fig. 5 is direct current cables voltage subordinating degree function figure；
Fig. 6 is that direct current cables punctures possibility subordinating degree function figure；
Fig. 7 is fuzzy logic inference rule library structure figure；
Fig. 8 is the observation chart of output variable；
Fig. 9 is the another embodiment schematic diagram of the method for the present invention
Figure 10 is the subway transportation road network structure figure in example；
Figure 11 is the exemplary subway transportation road network structure figure of Chongqing subway.
Specific embodiment
In order to which the purpose, technical solution and beneficial effect of the application is more clearly understood, below in conjunction with attached drawing and implementation
The application is further described in example.It should be appreciated that specific embodiment described herein is only used to explain the application,
It is not used to limit the application.
Before understanding the present application main points, electric power supply system for subway need to be first understood.The electric energy of entire subway is all from ground
Iron power supply system is got, and from the perspective of different function, electric power supply system for subway is supplied by external power supply, main transformer station, traction
This six system compositions of electric system, stray current corrosion guard system, electric power monitoring system, power and lighting power supply system.Traction
Power supply system is the core of electric power supply system for subway and the key of the method for the present invention analysis commentary method；Traction power supply system
System is mainly made of two big parts of traction substation and Traction networks, and the effect of the system is that main transformer station is passed over
High Level AC Voltage pass to subway train after a series of processing such as decompressions, rectification, guarantee the subway just with this
Often operation.It is described, i.e., is mainly become by traction decompression by subway DC power-supply system in Risk of Communication chain of the invention
Electric institute and contact net (or third rail) system composition.As shown in Figure 1, in traction stepdown substation, step-down transformer and rectification
Exchange 35kV voltage is converted into the voltage of DC1500V by the Rectification Power Factor of device composition, carries out electrical energy transportation by DC Feeder Cable,
It is switched by High-speed DC and is powered to contact net (third rail), return to motor-generator set finally by rail (return current rail), return cable
Group cathode.
The effect of DC Feeder Cable is exactly to switch High-speed DC to connect with corresponding contact net, cable laying
Main positions are on respective cable bracket inside electric substation cable interlayer, inside ground cable channel and running tunnel side wall.
The environment of the strong temperature difference and humidity easily leads to cable dielectric creeping discharge and shelf depreciation, this will lead to electrical conductance of cable rate
Increase, major insulation gradually declines, cable insulation aging.A certain power supply section is usually to be given simultaneously by multi-cable parallel running
Locomotive power supply, when the contact net in this region has locomotive to pass through, to one's respective area power cable on have big load current
It flows through, there is no load current on cable when no vehicle is stopped transport by this region and night subway, but on cable always
There is the DC voltage of 1500V.Collective effect and long term accumulator by factors above, when cable passes through transient overvoltage,
It may cause cable insulation weak spot instantaneous breakdown, cable reveals a large amount of electric currents suddenly, and direct current cables core is caused to pass through its gold
Belong to cabinet ground short circuit, causes cable impaired, stop power supply.Direct current cables is an important link in tractive power supply system,
Due to using the structure without metal armouring, the hidden failure duration of direct current cables is longer, is difficult to find, especially using the
In the tractive power supply system of three rails power supply, once direct current cables failure occurs, failure would become hard to be isolated, to cause power off time
Increase, increases operations risks.
Based on above-mentioned analysis, the present invention proposes the electric power supply system for subway dynamic risk analysis assessment side based on fuzzy reasoning
Method, this method have initially set up the Risk of Communication chain model of electric power supply system for subway direct current cables breakdown, utilize to this model fuzzy
Reasoning is modeled, and fuzzy reasoning is carried out using the relationship between key feature amount in Risk of Communication chain, by being blurred and going
The process of blurring obtains the probability of electric power supply system for subway direct current cables breakdown.Specifically as shown in Fig. 2, the method includes following
Step:
S1, according to the power supply section of orbital position where target train, determine corresponding target DC traction substation and
Its Traction networks determines the DC Feeder Cable and return cable of target DC substation；
The Risk of Communication chain that S2, the direct current cables for establishing electric power supply system for subway puncture, and determine the Risk of Communication chain
The key feature amount of DC Feeder Cable in item, the key feature amount include direct current cables insulation resistance R, voltage U and cable
Leakage Current Ie, relational expression R=U/Ie；
Wherein, shown in Fig. 3, the Risk of Communication chain is described as the temperature difference and after wet environment causes cable insulation aging,
When cable passes through transient overvoltage, lead to cable insulation weak spot instantaneous breakdown, cable reveals a large amount of electric currents, and cable grounding is short
Road stops power supply after being damaged.And in cable insulation aging, D.C. resistance R will certainly decline.
The load of DC Feeder Cable for Urban Rail Transit has its particularity, that is, has stage: only when locomotive passes through
When, DC Feeder Cable just provides load current；When locomotive is stopped transport or is passed through without locomotive, cable is almost zero load, output
Electric current Io ≈ 0 is held, then cable Leakage Current Ie is approximately equal to the input current Ii of cable.According to Kirchhoff's law, cable is let out
Reveal the calculation formula of electric current Ie are as follows: Ie=Ii-Io, substituting into relational expression is R=U/ (Ii-Io).Direct current cables occurs breakdown and takes
Certainly in the size of breakdown voltage and insulation resistance, therefore, the size according to breakdown voltage and insulation resistance can infer direct current
The size of cable generation breakdown probability.
For the uncertainty for adapting to subway direct current cables insulation resistance and voltage in operation, this civilization uses fuzzy reasoning side
Method analyzes the relationship between a possibility that insulation resistance, voltage and cable breakdown.
S3, using the key feature numerical quantity of the DC Feeder Cable of acquisition as numerical value vector, by fuzzy reasoning method into
Row fuzzy set calculates, and obtains the subordinating degree function figure of corresponding numerical value vector；
In the particular embodiment, which carries out fuzzy set using the fuzzy logic toolbox of MATLAB
Calculating, specifically include:
S30, input variable insulation resistance R, according to the physical attribute of insulation resistance classify, be divided into very little, it is smaller, normal three
Class selects trapezoidal ladder type subordinating degree function to be described；
Fig. 4 is the subordinating degree function of input variable insulation resistance R.Wherein abscissa indicates the resistance value size of resistance, indulges and sits
Mark indicates the value of the subordinating degree function of resistance；
S31, input variable voltage U classify according to the physical attribute of voltage, are divided into normal, higher, very high three classes, select
Trapezoidal ladder type subordinating degree function is described；
Fig. 5 is the subordinating degree function of input variable voltage cable U.Wherein abscissa indicates the size of voltage cable U, indulges and sits
Mark indicates the value of the subordinating degree function of voltage swing.
A possibility that S32, output variable cable breakdown K, since possibility variation is gentle, select Gauss π membership function into
Row description.
Fig. 6 is the subordinating degree function of output variable direct current cables breakdown possibility.Wherein, abscissa indicates that direct current cables is hit
A possibility that wearing subordinating degree function value range, ordinate indicate the subordinating degree function value of direct current cables breakdown possibility.
S4, a possibility that direct current cables breakdown observation chart is obtained according to subordinating degree function figure reasoning, comment target train and exist
The fault rate of power supply section.
Specifically include:
S40, each subordinating degree function applying rules observer of acquisition is compiled as fuzzy logic inference rule library；With rule
Then observer editor fuzzy logic inference rule library is as shown in Figure 7.It is made of 9 rules.The column of the left side one indicate insulation resistance
The case where, insulation resistance " very little ", " smaller ", " normal " are respectively indicated from left to right；One column of centre indicate the feelings of voltage cable
Condition respectively indicates voltage cable " normal ", " higher ", " very high " from left to right；The column of the right one indicate the feelings of direct current cables breakdown
Condition, a possibility that respectively indicating breakdown from left to right " low ", " in ", "high".Here, every a line represents a rule.
S41, output curved surface is observed with View-Surface, the high, normal, basic of fault rate is directly evaluated according to curved surface
Degree.As shown in figure 8, illustrating direct current cables breakdown possibility K's and direct current cables insulation resistance R and voltage cable U in figure
Relationship.When direct current cables insulation resistance is smaller and voltage cable is higher, a possibility that direct current cables punctures, is all higher.
Under normal circumstances, 20 DEG C when 1500V direct current cables insulation resistance answer >=153M Ω km, the direct current of metro traction system
Cable working voltage is 1500V, and resistance to pressure request is 3000V.Example of the present invention is assessed by above-mentioned analysis method, is obtained a result:
When subway DC Feeder Cable is less than 100M Ω km, voltage cable is higher than 4000V, cable is easily breakdown, therefore should pass through electricity
Cable monitoring device issues the reason of early warning checks cable insulation decline in time when insulation resistance is in 100-150M Ω km, in electricity
It is issued when cable voltage is more than 4000V and reminds the reason of checking overtension, prevent cable breakdown.Monitoring system can be used online
Monitoring means, on-line monitoring technique can monitor direct current cables on-line with 24 hours, real time on-line monitoring cable insulation ginseng
Number, once exception occurs in direct current cables, on-line monitoring technique can in time feed back collected data information to monitoring system, prison
Control system analyzes these data informations data information transfer to equipment maintenance and management department, technical staff, understands electricity
The degradation trend of cable insulation carries out malfunction monitoring, establishes early warning system to analyze the performance of direct current cables.
DC Feeder Cable in electric power supply system for subway can guarantee the normal operation of subway train, the state of insulation of cable
Direct influence will be generated on the electric power thus supplied of subway.It can determine that event caused by breakdown occurs for direct current cables by the above method
Hinder probability of happening, and obtain the threshold value of the insulation resistance and voltage parameter when direct current cables being caused to puncture, to be the later period
Detection and prevention provide foundation.
Direct current cables failure will result directly in withdrawal of train, and during networking operation, withdrawal of train can bring passenger flow
Aggregation, passenger flow can be propagated along line propagation, the aggregation of passenger flow and can carry out great risk to the safety belt of metro operation network.Therefore,
On the other hand, the risk that electric power supply system for subway failure generates network operation also resides in the severity of failure effect, and is somebody's turn to do
Severity evaluation method is as follows described.
Shown in Fig. 9, the electric power supply system for subway risk analysis method based on fuzzy reasoning method further includes following step:
S5, subway network of the building based on graph theory and network theory, analyze visitor when certain is broken down in subway network
The propagation of stream, which is developed, runs bring severity degree to subway network；
S50, the line with the station on the node identification subway transportation route in subway transportation network, between adjacent node
The railroad section between each station is identified, subway network is established；
The station of rail transit network is indicated with point, the line expression between station has route to be connected therebetween, in this way
Urban track traffic situation can clearly show that out with a figure.The characteristics of for subway networkization operation, by right
The elements such as the operation security influence factor of subway transportation road network such as passenger flow, network structure relevance are analyzed, and building is based on figure
By the subway network model with network theory, influence of the electric power supply system for subway failure to subway line and road network is analyzed.Network knot
The relevance of structure refers to being associated between station and station, between route and route, and the appearance of local problem will in network
Lead to entire Operation Network involves effect.For example, abnormal conditions occurs in a certain section of route in network, the variation of passenger flow will edge
The node of network, section propagate rapidly, influence the operation security of interdependent node, related interval and line related, finally
Influence the operation security of entire road network.
S51, the passenger flow degree of unbalancedness W for calculating each section on subway network；The passenger flow degree of unbalancedness W is expressed as road network
The ratio of uneven passenger flow and normal condition road network passenger flow total throughout.
As shown in Figure 10, x1-x8The passenger flow for indicating uplink and downlink between node 1,2,3,4,5 when normal operation, sets 5-4-2-
1,3-2-1 direction is uplink, otherwise is downlink.If 2-1 up direction line interruption, passenger flow can be to 4-2,5-4,3-2
Section propagation is crowded, breaks the balance of road network passenger flow.Wherein, 2-1 sections of uneven passenger flows are
F1=x1 (4)
F indicates uneven passenger flow.4-2 sections and 3-2 sections uneven passenger flows substantially press former uplink passenger flow ratio according to the actual situation
Example distribution, 4-2 sections of uneven passenger flows
3-2 sections of uneven passenger flows are
5-4 sections of uneven passenger flows are
Thus road network passenger flow degree of unbalancedness
W indicates road network passenger flow degree of unbalancedness.N node layer can be calculated, 3 layers of this example calculations, in general, passenger flow occurs
It is crowded to be propagated to layer 2-4 node.
S52, the severity degree that line interruption generates road network operation is calculated；
Line interruption is directly proportional to the time of line interruption to road network operation bring consequence, therefore line interruption is to road network
The severity degree that operation generates is expressed as the product of road network passenger flow degree of unbalancedness and time
C=W*t (9)
C indicates road network severity degree, and the time, t was as unit of hour.Provide that sequence severity grade is as shown in table 1:
1 subway network sequence severity grade of table
It is abstracted as with the part road network (including Line 1, No. 2 lines) of Chongqing metro operation and is made of several nodes and directed edge
Subway transportation road net model as analysis case, as shown in figure 11.
Every route all carries certain volume of the flow of passengers in subway network, and any line failure all can be to passenger flow
Fluxion strap come centainly influence, different degrees of influence is generated to the passenger flow degree of unbalancedness of road network.The example is investigated according to correlation
Data, Trip distribution is as shown in table 2 when the road network normal operation:
2 subway network normal operation one day Trip distribution of table
| Section | The uplink volume of the flow of passengers (7:00-8:00) number/hour | The downlink volume of the flow of passengers (7:00-8:00) number/hour |
| It has a rest estrade-petroleum road | 10425 | 5326 |
| Petroleum road-big level ground | 11443 | 5372 |
| The gulf Xie Jia-Yuan Jiagang | 8985 | 2335 |
| The big level ground Yuan Jiagang- | 9004 | 3219 |
| Big level ground-Fo Tuguan | 7129 | 2562 |
| Buddhist figure pass-plum dam | 6831 | 2627 |
When Buddhist figure pass-plum trip to the dam section route because power supply system fault interrupting runs half an hour, according to the stream of passenger flow
The passenger flow for closing section to, estrade of having a rest-petroleum road- great Ping, Xie Jiawan-Yuan Jiagang- great Ping, great Ping-Buddhist figure will occur it is crowded,
According to the definition for netter stream degree of unbalancedness of satisfying the need above, Fo Tuguan-plum dam imbalance passenger flow is 6831 (people/hour), greatly
Level ground-the direction Buddhist Tu Guan imbalance passenger flow be 6545 (people/hour), the petroleum road-direction great Ping imbalance passenger flow be 3662 (people/
Hour), the direction Yuan Jiagang- great Ping imbalance passenger flow is 2882 (people/hour), estrade of having a rest-petroleum road direction imbalance passenger flow
For 1286 (people/hour), the gulf the Xie Jia-direction Yuan Jiagang imbalance passenger flow is 924 (people/hour).According to formula (8) road network visitor
Degree of unbalancedness W=0.147 is flowed, according to formula (9) road network sequence severity C=0.147t.
According to the above-mentioned classification to consequence menace level, Buddhist figure pass-plum monolith line interruption 0.034 is small in present case
When interior severity degree be it is rudimentary, interrupting 0.034-0.34 hour severity degrees is middle rank, interruption 0.34-1.7 hours
Severity degree be it is advanced, it is high for interrupting 1.7-3.4 hour severity degrees.
Consequence after the failure that S6, the fault rate obtained by step S4 reasoning and step S5 are obtained occurs is tight
Weight degree, COMPREHENSIVE CALCULATING risk indicator size.
Electric power supply system for subway failure is total to the risk that network operation generates by fault rate and failure effect severity
With decision, analyzes according to above calculate and electric power supply system for subway direct current cables failure risk grade can be done following classification, be shown in Table 3.
The classification of 3 risk indicator of table
By taking above-mentioned Chongqing subway network as an example, line interruption half an hour, road network severity degree is moderate, according to table 3,
When probability of happening is low, middle, risk class is middle rank, and when probability of happening is high, risk class is advanced.
According to the above analysis assessment as a result, when subway DC Feeder Cable is less than, voltage cable is higher than 3500V, cable
It is easily breakdown, therefore early warning should be issued when insulation resistance is in by cable monitoring device and check that cable insulation declines in time
The reason of, it is issued when voltage cable is more than 3500V and reminds the reason of checking overtension, prevent cable breakdown.Because of cable
Running environment is different, and extent of actual control is slightly different.
The propagation of passenger flow is developed to subway when certain is broken down in the above-mentioned method analysis subway network with graph theory
Road network runs bring severity degree.Specifically, power supply trouble occurs for analysis certain to road in subway network structure
Other node bring severity degrees in net, so that assessment is because breaking down the degrees of risk of other nodes of road network in somewhere,
And propose respective risk control measure, so that difference when somewhere is broken down in road network according to degree of risk takes not Tongfang
Road network overall risk is minimized by method.This method may be implemented to the dynamic in electric power supply system for subway direct current cables operational process
Risk analysis assessment, and theoretical basis is provided for the blocking of risk.
Embodiments described above does not constitute the restriction to the technical solution protection scope.It is any in above-mentioned implementation
Made modifications, equivalent substitutions and improvements etc., should be included in the protection model of the technical solution within the spirit and principle of mode
Within enclosing.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of electric power supply system for subway dynamic risk analysis appraisal procedure based on fuzzy reasoning includes at least following step:
The power supply section of orbital position, determines corresponding target DC traction substation and its leads where S1, foundation target train
Draw net, determines the DC Feeder Cable and return cable of target DC substation；
The Risk of Communication chain that S2, the direct current cables for establishing electric power supply system for subway puncture, and determine in the Risk of Communication chain
The key feature amount of DC Feeder Cable, the key feature amount include direct current cables insulation resistance R, voltage U and cable leakage
Electric current Ie, formula R=U/Ie；
S3, using the key feature numerical quantity of the DC Feeder Cable of acquisition as numerical value vector, mould is carried out by fuzzy reasoning method
Paste set calculates, and obtains the subordinating degree function figure of corresponding numerical value vector；
S4, a possibility that direct current cables breakdown observation chart is obtained according to the subordinating degree function figure reasoning of each numerical value vector,
Target train is commented in the fault rate of power supply section.
2. the electric power supply system for subway dynamic risk analysis appraisal procedure based on fuzzy reasoning as described in claim 1, feature
It is, the Risk of Communication chain is described as the temperature difference and after wet environment causes cable insulation aging, and cable is excessively electric by transient state
When pressure, lead to cable insulation weak spot instantaneous breakdown, cable reveals a large amount of electric currents；In cable insulation aging, direct current cables is exhausted
Edge resistance R reduces；
In the Risk of Communication chain, the calculation formula of cable Leakage Current Ie are as follows: Ie=Ii-Io；Wherein, Ii is cable input
Holding electric current, Io is output electric current, and substituting into relational expression is R=U/ (Ii-Io).
3. the electric power supply system for subway dynamic risk analysis appraisal procedure based on fuzzy reasoning as described in claim 1, feature
It is, S3 is the calculating that fuzzy set is carried out using the fuzzy logic toolbox of MATLAB, it specifically includes:
S30, input variable insulation resistance R classify according to its physical attribute, are divided into very little, smaller, normal three classes, select trapezoidal
Ladder type subordinating degree function is described；
S31, input variable voltage U classify according to its physical attribute, are divided into normal, higher, very high three classes, select trapezoidal ladder type
Subordinating degree function is described；
A possibility that S32, output variable cable breakdown K, select Gauss π membership function be described.
4. the electric power supply system for subway dynamic risk analysis appraisal procedure based on fuzzy reasoning as claimed in claim 3, feature
It is, observation chart specific inference method a possibility that the breakdown of direct current cables in S4 are as follows:
S40, each subordinating degree function applying rules observer of acquisition is compiled as fuzzy logic inference rule library；
S41, foundation fuzzy logic inference rule library observe output curved surface with View-Surface, and are directly commented according to curved surface
Valence fault rate, the fault rate are evaluated with high, medium and low.
5. the electric power supply system for subway dynamic risk analysis appraisal procedure based on fuzzy reasoning as claimed in claim 4, feature
It is, fuzzy logic inference rule library described in S40 is edited using the membership function of step S30-S32 as content, same shape
A possibility that variable insulation resistance R, voltage U and cable breakdown under state, K formed a rule, formed 9 rules altogether.
6. the electric power supply system for subway dynamic risk analysis appraisal procedure based on fuzzy reasoning as described in claim 1, feature
It is, the method also includes following step:
S5, subway network of the building based on graph theory and network theory, analyze passenger flow when certain is broken down in subway network
It propagates to develop and runs bring severity degree to subway network；
The serious journey of consequence after the failure generation that S6, the fault rate in conjunction with step S4 reasoning acquisition and step S5 are obtained
Degree, Comprehensive Assessment risk indicator size.
7. the electric power supply system for subway dynamic risk analysis appraisal procedure based on fuzzy reasoning as claimed in claim 5, feature
It is, S5 includes the following steps:
S50, the line mark with the station on the node identification subway transportation route in subway transportation network, between adjacent node
Railroad section between each station, establishes subway network；
S51, the passenger flow degree of unbalancedness W for calculating each section on subway network；The passenger flow degree of unbalancedness W is expressed as road network injustice
The ratio for the passenger flow and normal condition road network passenger flow total throughout of weighing, i.e.,
S52, the severity degree C that line interruption generates road network operation is calculated according to formula (9), and according to C numerical values recited
Judge sequence severity grade；
C=W*t formula (9).
8. the electric power supply system for subway dynamic risk analysis appraisal procedure based on fuzzy reasoning as claimed in claim 7, feature
It is, sequence severity grade is judged according to C numerical values recited in the step S52 specifically: severity degree C is 0-0.01
When, sequence severity grade is low；When severity degree C is 0.01-0.1, during sequence severity grade is；The serious journey of consequence
When degree C is 0.1-0.5, sequence severity grade is height；When severity degree C is 0.5-1, sequence severity grade is pole
It is high.
9. the electric power supply system for subway dynamic risk analysis appraisal procedure based on fuzzy reasoning as claimed in claim 5, feature
It is, step S6 specifically:
When the fault rate is low, the corresponding severity degree is that the risk under basic, normal, high, high situation refers to
Mark grade assessment is followed successively by basic, normal, high, high；
When the fault rate is middle, the corresponding severity degree is that the risk under basic, normal, high, high situation refers to
Mark grade assessment be followed successively by it is low, in, it is high, high；
When the fault rate is high, the corresponding severity degree is that the risk under basic, normal, high, high situation refers to
Mark grade assessment is followed successively by middle and high, high, high.
10. the electric power supply system for subway dynamic risk analysis appraisal procedure based on fuzzy reasoning as claimed in claim 5, feature
It is, further includes
S7, Forewarning Measures are taken according to analysis assessment result, i.e., is issued when voltage cable is more than 3500V and reminds inspection voltage mistake
High reason.
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