CN109613338A - A kind of low-voltage customer circuit resistance estimation method based on linear model - Google Patents
A kind of low-voltage customer circuit resistance estimation method based on linear model Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The low-voltage customer circuit resistance estimation method based on linear model that the invention discloses a kind of, belongs to power management techniques field.Time series data of this method based on user's intelligent electric meter collection voltages and electric current, to user loop impedance ZLIt is defined, and utilizes KVL loop-voltage equation, derive the unitary linear model of building low-voltage customer impedance loop.The estimation method of impedance loop, with this area's peak valley, usually section statistics is divided into according to choosing the data acquisition period first, is the current step moment of interval observation user using 5min within the period, and by the voltage and current data-frozen at former and later two moment of step；Then using a day data as sample, linear regression analysis is carried out, user loop impedance Z is estimatedL, the impedance loop numerical value can be used to estimate the healthy degree of aging for sentencing low-voltage distribution network route and user's exception electricity consumption behavior.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to power management techniques field more particularly to a kind of low-voltage customer circuit resistances based on linear model
Estimation method.
Background technique
With the increase of route service life and the erosion of external extreme natural environment, route can gradually aging, aging
On the one hand there is the possibility of broken string in route, be more decreasing insulating after electric wire aging, is easy to produce electric leakage or short circuit is existing
As.But low-voltage network route is many and diverse, and failure influence face is small, the reasons such as input-output ratio is considered, in the operation of low-voltage network
In management, distribution trend is seldom calculated, and an important indicator " line loss " of low-voltage distribution network operation also mainly uses power
The method of difference calculates, therefore being related to distribution network line impedance computation is always the blind area studied.How research is returned by user
The anti-real-time monitoring of roadlock, finds aging circuit phenomenon in time, and carries out short circuit or open circuit fault anticipation, can effectively reduce failure
Occur to improve power supply reliability.
This patent is directed to this demand, has studied a kind of low-voltage customer circuit resistance estimation method based on linear model.
In addition, the monitoring by low-voltage customer impedance loop is analyzed, the abnormal electricity consumption behavior of user's stealing can be effectively found, help electric power
Manager reinforces power consumption management, improves the economic benefit of enterprise, safe and reliable for electricity consumption.
Summary of the invention
In view of the above-mentioned problems, now provide a kind of low-voltage customer circuit resistance estimation method based on linear model, for pair
The monitoring of low-voltage customer circuit resistance is analyzed.
Summary of the invention are as follows: a kind of low-voltage customer circuit resistance estimation method based on linear model includes the following steps:
Step 1: determining the acquisition period of two class data of voltage and current；
Step 2: determining current step reduced value ICo；
Step 3: the sample data of collection voltages and electric current；
Step 4: building low-voltage customer circuit resistance model calculates low tension loop resistance.
Further, the determination of data acquisition period includes that usually section, resident are flat at large user peak in the step 1
The peak period selects the intersection period of described two users usually section.
Further, current step reduced value I is determined in the step 2CoThe step of include:
Step 2-1: analysis user's history load curve；
Step 2-2: extracting current step sequence i (k), and step quantity is m；
Step 2-3: step magnitude I corresponding to the 0.5m time series is foundCo；
Step 2-4: current step reduced value I is determinedCo；
Further, the acquisition of sample data includes the following steps: in the step 3
Step 3-1: with 5 minutes for interval, collection voltages and current data；
Step 3-2: judge I (t+5min)-I (t) >=ICoIf then by data-frozen；If it is not, then data are abandoned.
Further, include: the step of building low-voltage customer circuit resistance linear model in the step 5
Step 5-1: Z is definedL1=Zre+ZDA+ZA1； (1)
Step 5-2: according to power network topology, loop-voltage equation is write out
Step 5-3: formula (1) will be rewritten into the form of 1 impedance loop containing user
Step 5-4: two moment of t1 and t2, impedance expression are write out are as follows:
The impedance expression at two moment of step 5-5:t1 and t2, which subtracts each other, takes difference are as follows:
Step 5-6: in formula,
Wherein, δ Z1Influence mainly due to power supply point voltage fluctuation to 1 end voltage of user, δ Z2Mainly due to local
Influence of the low-voltage customer load fluctuation to 1 end voltage of user, this two parts is stochastic variable, but meets and be just distributed very much；
Then, further formula (6) is simplified to
Step 5-7: (9) formula is rewritten into U1(t1)-U1(t2)=ZL1(I1(t2)-I1(t1))+δZ' (10)
Step 5-8: with linear regression model (LRM) comparative analysis:
Linear regression model (LRM) are as follows: yi=alpha+beta xi+εi (11)
Wherein, xi yiFor sample size, β is regression coefficient, and α is regression constant item；εiDisturbance, each disturbance quantity it
Between it is mutually indepedent, and obey and be just distributed very much；
δ Z' is to meet the stochastic variable being just distributed very much, with the ε in linear regression model (LRM)iMeaning is consistent, by residual error and remains
The distribution of remaining mean square deviation MSe detection fitting effect and δ Z'；Formula (10) and formula (11) are with uniformity.
Further, the circuit resistance calculating in the step 4 includes the following steps:
Step 6-1: the one day sample data that will acquire carries out simple linear regression analysis；
Step 6-2: residual mean square difference is fitted；
Step 6-3: by the value of regression coefficient β, the loop resistance values Z of the user is estimatedL,
Step 6-4: the detection of model confidence level is carried out with P value.
The utility model has the advantages that a kind of low-voltage customer circuit resistance estimation method based on linear model of the invention, passes through low pressure
The monitoring of user loop impedance is analyzed, and can effectively find the abnormal electricity consumption behavior of user's stealing, and electrical management person is helped to reinforce using
Fulgurite reason, improves the economic benefit of enterprise, safe and reliable for electricity consumption.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is a kind of circuit model figure of low-voltage customer impedance loop of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is a kind of low-voltage customer impedance loop estimation method flow chart of the present invention；
Fig. 3 be in the present invention data acquisition period determine schematic diagram；
Fig. 4 is the sample data list that low-voltage customer of the present invention freezes；
Fig. 5 is low tension loop impedance computation result figure of the present invention.
Specific embodiment
The technical means disclosed in the embodiments of the present invention is not limited to the technical means disclosed in the above technical means, and further includes
Technical solution consisting of any combination of the above technical features.With reference to the accompanying drawings and detailed description, it furthers elucidate
The present invention.It should be understood that following specific embodiments are merely to illustrate the present invention, rather than limit the scope of the invention.
Modeling process is as follows: low-voltage customer impedance loop ZL, it is exported to what user port was passed through from Circuit Fault on Secondary Transformer
The sum of all line impedances and Circuit Fault on Secondary Transformer equivalent impedance, as shown in Figure 1, its impedance loop are as follows:
ZL1=Zre+ZDA+ZA1 (1)
Low-voltage customer impedance loop linear model, the time series number based on user's intelligent electric meter collection voltages and electric current
According to user loop impedance ZLIt is defined, wherein ZL1For the low tension loop resistance of user 1, ZreIt is returned for the low pressure of re in Fig. 1
Road resistance, ZDAFor the low tension loop resistance of DA in Fig. 1, ZA1For the low tension loop resistance of A1 in Fig. 1.And utilize KVL loop voltage
Equation derives the unitary linear model of building low-voltage customer impedance loop,
The voltage and current time series data of the user of acquisition, Ui(t)、IiIt (t) is each moment user voltage, electric current
Virtual value, rather than instantaneous value.
With the impedance loop Z of low-voltage customer 1L1For, derivation process is as follows:
1) according to power network topology, loop-voltage equation is write out；
2) formula 1 is rewritten into the form of 1 impedance loop containing user:
3) two moment of t1 and t2, impedance expression are as follows:
4) impedance expression at two moment of t1 and t2, which subtracts each other, takes difference are as follows:
The model of formula 7 is the impedance loop computation model of user 1, in formula,
Wherein, δ Z1Influence mainly due to power supply point voltage fluctuation to 1 end voltage of user, δ Z2Mainly due to local
Influence of the low-voltage customer load fluctuation to 1 end voltage of user, this two parts is stochastic variable, but meets and be just distributed very much.
5) further by model simplification at:
In formula, ZL1For low-voltage customer impedance loop, for route, Z has stability in a period of time, usually fixed
Value.δ Z is δ Z1With δ Z2Synthesis, i.e. independent random caused by power supply point voltage fluctuation and local low-voltage customer load fluctuation becomes
Amount, but meet and be just distributed very much.
If 6) two moment of t1 and t2, other equal and local low-voltage customer loads of power supply point voltage are constant, then:Since the voltage and current at 1 both ends of user is the known quantity that can be measured, so this part
It is computable determining amount.
As shown in Fig. 2, the low-voltage customer circuit resistance estimation method based on linear model comprising the steps of:
1) data are chosen and acquires the period, united in conjunction with the usually division of section of this area's peak valley and this season user power utilization situation
Meter chooses the electricity consumption metastable peak period peaceful period；
2) user's current step reduced value ICoDetermination, transfer user's recent history load curve, extract the user's
Current step sequence I (k) determines the current step reduced value I of the user using the step for covering the user 50% as standardCo；
3) user's current step moment is chosen, acquires user port electricity by interval of 5min within the period that step 1 determines
Pressure, current data, and by current difference I (the t+5min)-I (t) and I at two moment of front and backCoIt compares, if I (t+5min)-I (t) >=
ICo, then the voltage and current data at former and later two moment of step are freezed；
4) data for freezing one day select one-variable linear regression method to carry out impedance analysis as sample.
5) the loop resistance values Z that regression coefficient estimates the user is chosenL, and the inspection of model confidence level is carried out with P value
It surveys, detects fitting effect using residual mean square difference MSe.
Further, the determination of data acquisition period, in this area on the basis of the peak valley usually division of section, choosing should
The peak of regional electricity consumption, usually section avoid sharp period and paddy period, and main cause is peak, usually the power load distributing of section is concentrated, and is in
The maximum probability concentrated area of power load distributing；And the user power utilization randomness of paddy, sharp period is strong, is in small probability distributed area.
Further, the determination at current step moment sets user's electricity based on user's recent history load curve
Flow step reduced value ICo, the electric appliance of mainly user is different, if setting reduced value according to universal experience, is easy to cause part
User's sample size is insufficient；In addition, being even more that can not detect for undercurrent stealing user.
Low-voltage customer impedance loop estimation method uses one-variable linear regression method,
1) linear regression model (LRM) are as follows:
yi=alpha+beta xi+εi (9)
Wherein, xi yiFor sample size, β is regression coefficient, and α is regression constant item；εiDisturbance, each disturbance quantity it
Between it is mutually indepedent, and obey and be just distributed very much.
2) formula 8 is rewritten into following form,
U1(t1)-U1(t2)=ZL1(I1(t2)-I1(t1))+δZ' (10)
3) contrast 8 with formula 9, two models are with uniformity, and δ Z' is to meet the stochastic variable being just distributed very much, and linear
ε in regression modeliMeaning is consistent, detects fitting effect and the distribution of δ Z' by residual error and residual mean square difference MSe.
4) value for passing through regression coefficient β, estimates the loop resistance values Z of the userL, and model confidence water is carried out with P value
Flat detection.
Embodiment 1:
Step 1: the determination of data acquisition period: data are chosen and acquire the period, in conjunction with the division of this area's peak valley usually section
It is counted with this season user power utilization situation, chooses the electricity consumption metastable peak period peaceful period；As shown in figure 3, for Anhui
Area is the flat Time segments division of peak valley implementing time-of-use tariffs and carrying out, which is based on historical statistical data, reflects
Social power load distributing situation takes peak, usual friendship collection from the Time segments division and resident's Time segments division of large user, and as target data acquires
Period.
Step 2: current step reduced value I is determinedCo:User's current step reduced value ICoDetermination, it is recent to transfer the user
Historical load curve extracts the current step sequence I (k) of the user, and using the step for covering the user 50% as standard, determining should
The current step reduced value I of userCo；In example, powerful device is more in target analysis user, determines current step amount ICo
For 8A.
Step 3: the sample data of collection voltages and electric current: choosing user's current step moment, when step 1 determines
It using 5min is interval acquisition user port voltage, current data in section, and by current difference I (the t+5min)-I at two moment of front and back
(t) and ICoIt compares, if I (t+5min)-I (t) >=ICo, then the voltage and current data at former and later two moment of step are frozen
Knot；
Step 4: building low-voltage customer circuit resistance model, calculate low tension loop resistance: the data that one day is freezed as
Sample selects one-variable linear regression method to carry out impedance analysis.To target analysis user, freeze sample data, wherein usually section
12 groups of data, 18 groups of data of peak period, are shown in attached drawing 4.Choose the loop resistance values Z that regression coefficient estimates the userL, and with P
Value carries out the detection of model confidence level, detects fitting effect using residual mean square difference MSe.In example, user loop impedometer
Calculation result is 0.065 Europe, and the data and actual circuit impedance coincide, and residual mean square difference MSe is 0.44, and fitting effect is ideal.It sets
Believe that the confidence interval that level is 99% is (0.049,0.082).
Claims (6)
1. a kind of low-voltage customer circuit resistance estimation method based on linear model, it is characterised in that:
Include the following steps:
Step 1: determining the acquisition period of two class data of voltage and current；
Step 2: determining current step reduced value ICo；
Step 3: the sample data of collection voltages and electric current；
Step 4: building low-voltage customer circuit resistance model calculates low tension loop resistance.
2. the low-voltage customer circuit resistance estimation method according to claim 1 based on linear model, it is characterised in that: the step
The determination of data acquisition period includes large user peak usually section, resident's flat peak period in rapid 1, selects described two users flat
The intersection period of period.
3. the low-voltage customer circuit resistance estimation method according to claim 1 based on linear model, it is characterised in that: the step
Current step reduced value I is determined in rapid 2CoThe step of include:
Step 2-1: analysis user's history load curve；
Step 2-2: extracting current step sequence i (k), and step quantity is m；
Step 2-3: step magnitude I corresponding to the 0.5m time series is foundCo；
Step 2-4: current step reduced value I is determinedCo。
4. the low-voltage customer circuit resistance estimation method according to claim 3 based on linear model, it is characterised in that:
The acquisition of sample data includes the following steps: in the step 3
Step 3-1: with 5 minutes for interval, collection voltages and current data；
Step 3-2: judge I (t+5min)-I (t) >=ICoIf then by data-frozen；If it is not, then data are abandoned.
5. the low-voltage customer circuit resistance estimation method according to claim 1 based on linear model: it is characterized by: institute
Stating the step of low-voltage customer circuit resistance linear model is constructed in step 5 includes:
Step 5-1: Z is definedL1=Zre+ZDA+ZA1； (1)
Step 5-2: according to power network topology, loop-voltage equation is write out
Step 5-3: formula (1) will be rewritten into the form of 1 impedance loop containing user
Step 5-4: two moment of t1 and t2, impedance expression are write out are as follows:
The impedance expression at two moment of step 5-5:t1 and t2, which subtracts each other, takes difference are as follows:
Step 5-6: in formula,
Wherein, δ Z1Influence mainly due to power supply point voltage fluctuation to 1 end voltage of user, δ Z2Mainly due to local low pressure
Customer charge fluctuates the influence to 1 end voltage of user, this two parts is stochastic variable, but meets and be just distributed very much；
Then, further formula (6) is simplified to
Step 5-7: (9) formula is rewritten into U1(t1)-U1(t2)=ZL1(I1(t2)-I1(t1))+δZ' (10)
Step 5-8: with linear regression model (LRM) comparative analysis:
Linear regression model (LRM) are as follows: yi=alpha+beta xi+εi (11)
Wherein, xi yiFor sample size, β is regression coefficient, and α is regression constant item；εiIt is Disturbance, phase between each disturbance quantity
It is mutually independent, and obey and be just distributed very much；
δ Z' is to meet the stochastic variable being just distributed very much, with the ε in linear regression model (LRM)iMeaning is consistent, equal by residual error and residue
Variance MSe detects fitting effect and the distribution of δ Z'；Formula (10) and formula (11) are with uniformity.
6. the low-voltage customer circuit resistance estimation method according to claim 5 based on linear model, it is characterised in that:
Circuit resistance calculating in the step 4 includes the following steps:
Step 6-1: the one day sample data that will acquire carries out simple linear regression analysis；
Step 6-2: residual mean square difference is fitted；
Step 6-3: by the value of regression coefficient β, the loop resistance values Z of the user is estimatedL,
Step 6-4: the detection of model confidence level is carried out with P value.
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| CN111060750A (en) * | 2019-12-20 | 2020-04-24 | 天津大学 | Method for estimating impedance of power system equivalent system |
| CN111062176A (en) * | 2019-12-09 | 2020-04-24 | 国网山西省电力公司长治供电公司 | Low-voltage user loop impedance binary linear model construction and solving method |
| CN111208351A (en) * | 2020-01-17 | 2020-05-29 | 北京市腾河电子技术有限公司 | Method for calculating power supply line impedance based on load jump and storage medium |
| WO2020164322A1 (en) * | 2019-02-12 | 2020-08-20 | 江苏智臻能源科技有限公司 | Unigram model-based low-voltage user loop impedance estimation method |
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| WO2020164322A1 (en) * | 2019-02-12 | 2020-08-20 | 江苏智臻能源科技有限公司 | Unigram model-based low-voltage user loop impedance estimation method |
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| CN111062176B (en) * | 2019-12-09 | 2023-09-22 | 国网山西省电力公司长治供电公司 | Low-voltage user loop impedance binary linear model construction and solving method |
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| CN111984925B (en) * | 2020-07-29 | 2024-03-12 | 江苏方天电力技术有限公司 | Circuit abnormality positioning method based on loop impedance, storage medium and computing device |
| CN112560239A (en) * | 2020-12-03 | 2021-03-26 | 广东电网有限责任公司云浮供电局 | Method and system for calculating line impedance of transformer area and computer readable storage medium |
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| Publication number | Publication date |
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| CN109613338B (en) | 2021-03-16 |
| WO2020164322A1 (en) | 2020-08-20 |
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