CN109559015A - A kind of public dose evaluation method in Radiation Environmental Assessment based on probability theory - Google Patents
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Abstract
The public dose evaluation method that the invention discloses a kind of in Radiation Environmental Assessment based on probability theory, the following steps are included: analyzing and determining exposure pathways, the exposure pathways include: irradiation in sucking air, air submergence external exposure, surface sediments external exposure, the interior irradiation for eating animals and plants product, dose evaluation, according to dose evaluation as a result, choosing representative a man-year effective dose.This method is in the estimation process to public dose, in view of by all public in illumination range, and a reasonable man-year effective dose is chosen as a basic dose value, using this value as the evaluation index in Radiation Environmental Assessment, further strengthen the conservative of evaluation index so that it is guaranteed that the public and environment safety.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates in Radiation Environmental Assessment to public dose assessment technology field, and in particular to one kind in radiation environment
Public dose evaluation method in evaluation based on probability theory.The public dose refers to as the important evaluation in Radiation Environmental Assessment
Mark.
Background technique
With the continuous change of Radiation Protection System, also change is occurring for component part and application.Core is set at present
The environmental evaluation applied also as conventional environmental evaluation, is also undergoing the process gradually reinforced and standardized.For radiating ring
Border quality evaluation (also known as Radiation Environmental Assessment), judges whether nuclear facilities meets the evaluation index of the environmental requirement of country at present
It is: Critical Gtoup man-year effective dose.
Critical Gtoup refers to: having reasonable uniformity for given radiation source and exposure pathways, and is shone by maximum
The representational one group of resident penetrated.Critical Gtoup recognition methods used by China at present is: the sky in range of exposures
Between be divided into several sub-districts of 16 directions, radial distances not etc., while random sampling is carried out to the resident in natural village in sub-district
Investigation, obtains resident's different occupation in each natural village and the average annual Food consumption of age groups and living habit parameter;So
After estimate each sub-district age groups resident man-year effective dose, the estimated value of man-year effective dose in each sub-district
Maximum age group is considered as Critical Gtoup.
This recognition methods causes the Critical Gtoup provided naturally and is on a grand scale, and the man-year obtained of thus sampling is eaten
Object consumption figure also can not just represent the Food consumption of the people by larger irradiation.Therefore, in range of exposures, it is understood that there may be with
Evaluation index of a man-year effective dose of Critical Gtoup as Radiation Environmental Assessment, cannot can not there is a problem of conservatively.
In recent years, with the development of the evaluation method of probability theory, it may be considered that be added in estimation public dose uncertain
The factor of degree.
Summary of the invention
In view of the deficiencies in the prior art, the purpose of the present invention is to provide one kind is based in Radiation Environmental Assessment
The public dose evaluation method of probability theory, in the estimation process to public dose, it is contemplated that by all public in illumination range,
And a reasonable man-year effective dose is chosen as a basic dose value, using this value as commenting in Radiation Environmental Assessment
Valence index, further strengthen the conservative of evaluation index so that it is guaranteed that the public and environment safety.
To achieve the above object, The technical solution adopted by the invention is as follows:
A kind of public dose evaluation method in Radiation Environmental Assessment based on probability theory, comprising the following steps:
Analyze and determine exposure pathways, the exposure pathways include: irradiation in sucking air, air submergence external exposure,
The external exposure of table deposit, the interior irradiation for eating animals and plants product,
Dose evaluation,
According to dose evaluation as a result, choosing representative a man-year effective dose.
Further, a kind of public dose evaluation method in Radiation Environmental Assessment based on probability theory as described above, agent
Amount evaluation, specifically includes:
The first step understands the information in source;
Second step obtains the information of surrounding enviroment, the radioactive concentration in the surrounding enviroment in the source especially discussed;
Third step plays related personal or group the living habit parameter based on illumination scheme in conjunction with radioactive concentration
Come;
4th step contacts the radioactive concentration in air or in soil with external irradiation dose rate using dose conversion factor
Get up;
5th step, the summation of comprehensive external irradiation dose and internal dose, constitutes year accumulated dose.
Further, a kind of public dose evaluation method in Radiation Environmental Assessment based on probability theory as described above, also
Include: by a man-year effective dose of selection, as the evaluation index of environmental evaluation, and with Critical Gtoup man-year effective agent
The evaluation method for measuring the index that judges is made comparisons.
Further, a kind of public dose evaluation method in Radiation Environmental Assessment based on probability theory as described above, institute
The information for stating understanding source, specifically includes:
Type, the type and quantity of radionuclide, the rate of discharge of radiogen and the discharging modes in source.
Further, a kind of public dose evaluation method in Radiation Environmental Assessment based on probability theory as described above, institute
The information for obtaining surrounding enviroment is stated, is specifically included:
For dosage caused by external exposure, need to know radioactive concentration in air, in soil or in water and outer
Exposure dose rate;
For dosage caused by interior irradiation, it is necessary to know in food, in water or these in air may be eaten or inhale
Enter the concentration of people's substance in vivo.
Further, a kind of public dose evaluation method in Radiation Environmental Assessment based on probability theory as described above, institute
It states and related personal or group the living habit parameter based on illumination scheme is combined with radioactive concentration, specifically include:
For external exposure, need to know the time in different zones consumption;
For interior irradiation, need to know the information of the food of consumption and the quantity of water and the respiratory capacity of air.
Further, a kind of public dose evaluation method in Radiation Environmental Assessment based on probability theory as described above, institute
It states and the radioactive concentration in air or in soil is connected with external irradiation dose rate using dose conversion factor, it is specific to wrap
It includes:
Absorption for radionuclide, dose conversion factor are the equivalents according to committed effective dose equivalent or organ
What dosage obtained.
Further, a kind of public dose evaluation method in Radiation Environmental Assessment based on probability theory as described above, leads to
Overtreatment assessment and the investigation to irradiated area, choose in the representative greater than 95% public man-year effective dose level
A man-year effective dose of property.
The beneficial effects of the present invention are: in the estimation process to public dose, it is contemplated that by all in illumination range
The public, and a reasonable man-year effective dose is chosen as a basic dose value, using this value as Radiation Environmental Assessment
In evaluation index, further strengthen the conservative of evaluation index so that it is guaranteed that the public and environment safety.
The present invention is not guarded for evaluation index-Critical Gtoup man-year effective dose in Radiation Environmental Assessment
Problem proposes and chooses a representative a man-year effective dose, and a man-year of 95% public is effective in by illumination range
Dosage is respectively less than the value, using this value as the evaluation index in Radiation Environmental Assessment, further strengthens the conservative of evaluation index
So that it is guaranteed that the safety of the public and environment.
That is: the probability for being had 95% by the public man-year effective doses all in illumination range is not higher than to a man-year in this constituency
Effective dose is not higher than representative a man-year of this selection in the public man-year effective dose by 95% in illumination range
Effective dose.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is a kind of public's agent in Radiation Environmental Assessment based on probability theory provided in the specific embodiment of the invention
Measure the flow chart of evaluation method;
Fig. 2 is the cumulative probability distribution that exposure number presses a man-year effective dose;
Fig. 3 is the cumulative probability distribution (logarithmic coordinates) that exposure number presses a man-year effective dose.
Specific embodiment
The present invention is described in further detail with specific embodiment with reference to the accompanying drawings of the specification.
Fig. 1 show provided in the specific embodiment of the invention it is a kind of in Radiation Environmental Assessment based on the public affairs of probability theory
The flow chart of many dose evaluation methods, this method specifically include that
Analyze and determine exposure pathways, the exposure pathways include: irradiation in sucking air, air submergence external exposure,
The external exposure of table deposit, the interior irradiation for eating animals and plants product,
It is atmosphere approach, main irradiation of the atmosphere approach to the public that general nuclear facilities radiation environment, which influences main exposure pathways,
Approach has irradiation in sucking air, air submergence external exposure, surface sediments external exposure, the interior irradiation for eating animals and plants product,
Determining can further progress dose evaluation step after exposure pathways;
Dose evaluation specifically includes:
The first step understands the information in source;
Second step obtains the information of surrounding enviroment, the radioactive concentration in the surrounding enviroment in the source especially discussed;
Third step plays related personal or group the living habit parameter based on illumination scheme in conjunction with radioactive concentration
Come;
4th step contacts the radioactive concentration in air or in soil with external irradiation dose rate using dose conversion factor
Get up;
5th step, the summation of comprehensive external irradiation dose and internal dose, constitutes year accumulated dose;
According to dose evaluation as a result, choose representative a man-year effective dose,
By a man-year effective dose of selection, have as the evaluation index of environmental evaluation, and with Critical Gtoup man-year
The judge evaluation method of index of effect dosage is made comparisons.
Based on the above technical solution, the information in the understanding source, specifically includes:
Type, the type and quantity of radionuclide, the rate of discharge of radiogen and the discharging modes in source.
When understanding the information in source, it should show the characteristic of source item;Such as emission problem in the environment, source
Characteristic should include the type of the radionuclide of discharge, position of the height of discharge with periphery in relation to building, radioactive substance
Physics and chemical form, meteorological condition;Source item passes through shielding, or by direct caused by the scattering of atmospheric substance and reflection
External exposure should be also calculated in interior.
Based on the above technical solution, the information for obtaining surrounding enviroment, specifically includes:
For dosage caused by external exposure, need to know radioactive concentration in air, in soil or in water and outer
Exposure dose rate;
For dosage caused by interior irradiation, it is necessary to know in food, in water or these in air may be eaten or inhale
Enter the concentration of people's substance in vivo.
It should be noted that the acquisition of radioactive concentration, the ambient concentration of different location is distributed by measurement by simulation
Object and deposit, radionuclide pass through the transmission of surrounding medium, or the combination for passing through the two;Either measurement or simulation
All contain relevant uncertainty;Source item and environment approach will lead to various nucleic in the knot of the Concentration Distribution of different location
Fruit;In this step, the development of dosage distribution should should depend on whether to exist latent independent of the presence or absence of individual
Exposure pathways.
Based on the above technical solution, described that related personal or group the living habit based on illumination scheme is joined
Number combines with radioactive concentration, specifically includes:
For external exposure, need to know the time in different zones consumption;
For interior irradiation, need to know the information of the food of consumption and the quantity of water and the respiratory capacity of air.
The information such as the living habit data in the radioactive concentration and illumination scheme in integrated environment, the letter being contemplated that
Breath include: place, recipe, will lead to daily routines by radio exposure and age-dependent physiologic factor such as age,
Respiratory rate;In many cases, we can obtain these data in the information material of local crowd;However, cannot get
When the related data of local crowd, it can use suitable national or zonal data and derive, these data
It can be used for supplementing or confirming local data.
Based on the above technical solution, described using dose conversion factor that the radioactivity in air or in soil is dense
Degree is connected with external irradiation dose rate, is specifically included:
Absorption for radionuclide, dose conversion factor are the equivalents according to committed effective dose equivalent or organ
What dosage obtained.
Based on the above technical solution, by dose assessment and to the investigation by illumination range, selection, which is in, to be greater than
Representative a man-year effective dose of 95% public man-year effective dose level.
Technical solution of the present invention is illustrated by the following examples.
Based on the meteorological data of certain domestic nuclear fuel facility, the public man-year effective dose of this area is counted
It calculates, and obtains Critical Gtoup man-year effective dose;Because this is not the data of real environmental evaluation and nuclear facilities periphery
Mostly in unjust open state, it is therefore assumed that condition is as follows:
(1) about the hypothesis of source item: in the low concentration uranium product that this engineering generates,235Abundance≤5% of U, in calculating,235The abundance of U is conservative to be considered by 5%.According to the data in " radiation protection guide the third volume of a work ", for235U degree of enrichment is
5% low dense product, in U234U、235U、238The atomicity of U is than being respectively 0.054%, 5.061%, 94.885%.234U、235U
、238The specific activity of U is respectively 2.31 × 108Bq/g、8.00×104Bq/g、1.24×104Bq/g.Source item meter is given in table 1
The relevant parameter of calculation.
Relevant parameter in the calculating of 1 source item of table
Because critical nuclide is U-234, it is possible to assuming that source item airborne radioactivity gas application discharge amount be 1.0 ×
108Bq/a, radioactive element only consider U-234, and blowdown stack is 80m and only one, around influence without high-lager building, with
This is as the source item data for calculating point.With the positive north for Y-axis positive axis, coordinate system, the seat of chimney are established by X-axis positive axis of positive east
Mark is regarded as (0,0), internal diameter 3.8m, it is assumed that discharge as unpowered release.So it can be concluded that the data of source item are shown in Table 2.
The total amount of the radgas given off under 2 nominal situation of table
(2) hypothesis about main exposure pathways: under normal circumstances, when carrying out dose conversion, the public of consideration is shone
The approach penetrated is that air submerges external exposure, superficial deposit external exposure, sucks and eat caused interior irradiation.In various exposure pathways
In, critical path is irradiation in sucking, so present embodiment assumes that only considering caused by air submergence external exposure and sucking air
Interior irradiation.
(3) hypothesis about irradiated area and population:, here can be false because this is not real environmental evaluation
If a population distribution, calculated here in order to simplify, only considers the crowd around source item within the scope of 5km.Crowd is divided into 16
A direction radial spacing is 80 sub-districts of 1km, it is assumed that the number of each sub-district is 100 people in 0-1km and population is in this area
It is uniformly distributed by area, while four age group childs, youngsters in evaluation region is obtained according to the population distribution data of this area's property
It is 2%, 8%, 16%, 74% that virgin, juvenile, adult, which accounts for the ratio of total population,.
It calculates the explanation of point meteorological data: being counted according to local weather station climatological data, this area's annual mean wind speed is
1.0m/s.The annual precipitation of different air quantity is as shown in table 3.According to local weather station scene Atmospheric Diffusion Experiment as a result, being obtained
The average mixing heights of different stabilitys be shown in Table 4, the Atmospheric Diffusion Parameters of different stabilitys are shown in Table 5.Atmospheric Diffusion examination
Testing is done when founding the factory for the thermal power plant of factory site Bei2.5kmChu, since the thermal power plant is closer away from factory site, used in report
The result of Atmospheric Diffusion test.Wind direction, the wind speed, total amount of cloud, low cloud cover observed result provided according to local weather station, meter
Wind direction, the wind speed, stability three-dimensional Combined Frequency obtained.
The annual precipitation of the different wind directions of table 3, mm
Table 4 is averaged mixing height
5 factory site regional atmospheric diffusion parameter of table
The production facility Airborne Effluent in the factory site is from the comprehensive air draft of each workshop, local exhaust and process system
Tail gas, major radiation contact scar object are UO2、UF6And UO2F2.The process tail gas of each system is according to the physicochemical properties of pollutant
Difference takes corresponding purification style to handle, and is further processed after then mixing with local exhaust.For containing uranium aerosol
Full row's drawn game heat-extraction system air draft, total exhaust duct is discharged into after high efficiency particle air filter is handled, into air draft center, passes through relay
Blower drains into 80m chimney stack and is discharged into atmosphere.
For nuclear facilities in conventional operation, radionuclide is discharged into atmosphere impacts environment.It is big under conventional operating condition
Gas invasin calculation formula is as follows:
In formula:
The long-term invasin of wind direction different distance, sm under i wind-3;
Release rate, Bqs-1;
I, j and k is respectively wind direction, stability and wind speed group;
M: the number of wind speed group;
Pijk: i wind direction, the weather frequency of j stability and k wind speed group;
σyj: the horizontal proliferation parameter of j stability, m;
σzj: the vertical diffusion parameter of j stability, m;
H: effective emission height, m;
ujk: the wind speed under j stability, k wind speed group at effective emission height, ms-1;
The dosage that atmosphere approach dose conversion mode resident receives mainly includes air submergence external exposure D1In sucking
Irradiate D2Two parts, specific calculating are as follows:
DAlways=D1+D2
1) air submergence external exposure year whole-body dose is calculated by following formula
In formula:
D1: air submerges external exposure year whole-body dose, Sva-1;
SF: the dosage Attenuation factor that shielding of building generates takes 0.7;
G1: smoke, mists and clouds submerges exposure dose conversion factor, Sv (SBqm-3)-1;
2) the year Committed effective dose that sucking pollution air generates is calculated by following formula
In formula:
D2: suck the year Committed effective dose of generation, Sva-1;
Ra: a man-year air intake, m3a-1;
G2: inhalation dose conversion factor, SvBq-1;
Parameter employed in calculating and some dose conversion factors are as shown in the table:
6 calculating parameter of table
7 inhalation dose conversion factor (SvBq of table-1)[31]
Calculated result: Critical Gtoup is the adult group of the 0-1km sub-district in the orientation ESE, and a maximum man-year effective dose is
7.91×10-7Sv/a。
The choosing method of representative a man-year effective dose: when having been carried out dose assessment by according to crowd to molecular regime
Afterwards, then a man-year effective dose limit value of each sub-district is average man-year effective dose limit value for being regarded as the sub-district, often
The weight in a dosage section may be considered the number Zhan for receiving the dosage range always by the share according to number.Therefore, this to connect
It is distributed by the number of different annual doses, can be used for estimation of personal year effective dose no more than certain horizontal (such as 1mSv) by according to people
Zhan is counted always by the share according to number, or the annual dose value that 95% (be distributed 95%) for estimating crowd does not exceed.
This method can release dosage distribution using a man-year effective dose of obtained each sub-district.Such as: such as
One people of fruit only considers by dosage caused by air radioactive caused by a source item, and crowd is divided into 16 direction radial directions
The sub-district of spacing 1km passes through the number of each sub-district individual and the data in relation to source item and an atmospheric dispersion model, Wo Menke
To estimate the ground air concentration of each sub-district.In simplest exposure pathways, it is assumed that respiratory rate is identical, between sub-district
There is no population migration, the difference of the air concentration of indoor and outdoor can also be ignored.The point estimation of sub-district is (assuming that be local average
Value) it is annual emissions as a result, providing the invasin of each sub-district, respiratory rate is identical with inhalation dose conversion factor.Then
One can be constructed to measure with population, using assessment sub-district mean dose from small to large, number knot with population
Dose probabilities distribution and cumulative distribution altogether.
The calculating of representative a man-year effective dose: on the assumed condition of Critical Gtoup and the basis of calculated result
Under, by the ascending sequence of the mean dose of each sub-district, because the value of sub-district point estimation is the mean dose of the sub-district,
It assume that dosage suffered by the people for having half in sub-district is greater than the mean dose value of the sub-district.The concept of cumulative probability is no more than
The probability of certain dose, according to the second class situation, the cumulative probability of a certain fixative magnitude can use corresponding population and total
The ratio of number reflects, that is, may be expressed as:
P=m/n
P: lower than the ratio that the number of known dose value accounts for total number of persons, i.e. cumulative probability;M: suffered dosage is lower than a certain solid
Determine the population of dose value;N: should be by total number of people in illumination range.
Obtained all data are showed in general reference axis and logarithmic coordinates axis respectively, see Fig. 2,3 respectively.
Figure it is seen that when taking common coordinate axis, after cumulative probability is greater than 90%, dosage increase speed it is very fast, illustrate by
It is smaller to population ratio shared by the biggish crowd of dosage;From figure 3, it can be seen that when taking logarithmic coordinates, in the value of cumulative probability
In 5%~95% section, then its distribution levels off to linear distribution.
According to the data in the trend and table on figure to by the cumulative probability Distributed Implementation pair according to number about annual dose
Number linear fit, obtains fitting function equation are as follows:
LgY=0.01671X-8.8189
Requirement according to the invention is i.e. higher than the number of representative a man-year effective dose less than 5%, then representative
A man-year effective dose is estimated that be 7.75 × 10 according to above formula-8Sv。
It can be concluded that, receive the number distribution of different annual doses using calculation method above, estimation of personal year can be used to
Effective dose is no more than the cumulative probability of some particular value.If dose constraint value is greater than 7.75 × 10-8Sv then may indicate that generation
A man-year effective dose of table meets dose constraint.
As can be seen from the results, based on the size of population assumed herein, the maximum mean dose of the adult group of Critical Gtoup
Greater than representative a man-year effective dose.Such case can be divided into two kinds of situations:
(1) dose constraint value is much larger than Critical Gtoup and representative a man-year effective dose, is to meet dosage at this time
Constraint:
(2) dosage of dose constraint value and Critical Gtoup is not much different, be considered as inside and outside Critical Gtoup whether someone
The dosage being subject to is greater than dose constraint value, and the number for being more than can not be released by Critical Gtoup Rapid Dose Calculation, at this time can not
It decides whether to implement control measure to irradiation condition.
As seen from Figure 2,90% one section of curve is greater than in cumulative probability, dosage rise speed is very fast, can see
Out due to the hypothesis of this paper population (i.e. the size of population is uniformly distributed in this area according to area), cause by the biggish people of dosage
The ratio that the quantity of mouth accounts for total population is smaller.So representative a man-year effective dose is than only considering some mean dose
The mean dose of larger sub-district age group wants small.
If assuming a kind of extreme case, i.e., the number in each sub-district is equal, the annual dosage of Critical Gtoup
Do not change, but according to method used above, it is 2.32 × 10 that can to calculate cumulative probability, which be the dosage at 95%,- 7Sv, i.e., representative a man-year effective dose.It is found that the value of this dosage is related with population distribution situation, when being illuminated dosage
When higher crowd's number accounting is larger, this numerical value can also increase, and account for total number of persons 10% even in the number of Critical Gtoup
When higher, this numerical value can even be higher than the dosage of Critical Gtoup.It is commented at this point, a man-year effective dose of Critical Gtoup is used as
Valence index does not just have conservative, and this representative a man-year effective dose is still that can trust as evaluation index.
Obviously, various changes and modifications can be made to the invention without departing from essence of the invention by those skilled in the art
Mind and range.In this way, if these modifications and changes of the present invention belongs to the range of the claims in the present invention and its equivalent technology
Within, then the present invention is also intended to include these modifications and variations.
Claims (8)
1. a kind of public dose evaluation method in Radiation Environmental Assessment based on probability theory, comprising the following steps:
Analyze and determine exposure pathways, the exposure pathways include: irradiation in sucking air, air submerges external exposure, earth's surface is sunk
The irradiation of product beyond the region of objective existence, the interior irradiation for eating animals and plants product,
Dose evaluation,
According to dose evaluation as a result, choosing representative a man-year effective dose.
2. a kind of public dose evaluation method in Radiation Environmental Assessment based on probability theory according to claim 1,
Be characterized in that: dose evaluation specifically includes:
The first step understands the information in source;
Second step obtains the information of surrounding enviroment, the radioactive concentration in the surrounding enviroment in the source especially discussed;
Third step combines related personal or group the living habit parameter based on illumination scheme with radioactive concentration;
4th step has contacted the radioactive concentration in air or in soil with external irradiation dose rate using dose conversion factor
Come;
5th step, the summation of comprehensive external irradiation dose and internal dose, constitutes year accumulated dose.
3. a kind of public dose evaluation method in Radiation Environmental Assessment based on probability theory according to claim 1,
It is characterized in that: further include: by a man-year effective dose of selection, as the evaluation index of environmental evaluation, and and Critical Gtoup
The judge evaluation method of index of a man-year effective dose is made comparisons.
4. a kind of public dose evaluation method in Radiation Environmental Assessment based on probability theory according to claim 2,
Be characterized in that: the information in the understanding source specifically includes:
Type, the type and quantity of radionuclide, the rate of discharge of radiogen and the discharging modes in source.
5. a kind of public dose evaluation method in Radiation Environmental Assessment based on probability theory according to claim 2,
Be characterized in that: the information for obtaining surrounding enviroment specifically includes:
For dosage caused by external exposure, need to know the radioactive concentration and external exposure in air, in soil or in water
Dosage rate;
For dosage caused by interior irradiation, it is necessary to know in food, in water or people may be eaten or be sucked to these in air
The concentration of substance in vivo.
6. a kind of public dose evaluation method in Radiation Environmental Assessment based on probability theory according to claim 2,
It is characterized in that: described that related personal or group the living habit parameter based on illumination scheme is risen in conjunction with radioactive concentration
Come, specifically include:
For external exposure, need to know the time in different zones consumption;
For interior irradiation, need to know the information of the food of consumption and the quantity of water and the respiratory capacity of air.
7. a kind of public dose evaluation method in Radiation Environmental Assessment based on probability theory according to claim 2,
It is characterized in that: described that the radioactive concentration in air or in soil has been contacted with external irradiation dose rate using dose conversion factor
Come, specifically include:
Absorption for radionuclide, dose conversion factor are the equivalent doses according to committed effective dose equivalent or organ
It obtains.
8. a kind of public dose evaluation method in Radiation Environmental Assessment based on probability theory according to claim 1,
It is characterized by dose assessment and the investigation to irradiated area, is chosen in greater than 95% public man-year effective agent
Measure horizontal representative a man-year effective dose.
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