CN109444990A - A kind of Lightning Warning method based on weather satellite data - Google Patents
A kind of Lightning Warning method based on weather satellite data Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The Lightning Warning method based on weather satellite data that the present invention relates to a kind of, what is solved is the technical issues of influence by orographic factor and investigative range, the analysis and working process for passing through the meteorological data to moonscope by using the present invention, and establish the relationship between moonscope data and thunder and lightning generation, establish the Lightning Warning model based on moonscope product, utilize the thunder and lightning real-time monitoring data inspection Lightning Warning model, establish a suitable thunder and lightning method of inspection, and it tests the technical solution of optimization to the Early-warning Model, preferably resolve the problem, it can be used in Lightning Warning.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to Lightning Warning fields, and in particular to a kind of Lightning Warning method based on weather satellite data.
Background technique
Thunder and lightning is the weather phenomenon for betiding one of atmosphere Transient Currents, high voltage, strong electromagnetic radiation, its production
Life is that the current mankind are unable to control and prevent, its main feature is that discharge voltage is high, current amplitude is big, and variation is fast, and discharge time is short,
Current waveform steepness is big.Its powerful electric current, red-hot high temperature, fierce shock wave, drastic change electromagnetic field and strong electricity
The physical effects such as magnetic radiation make it instantaneously generate huge destruction.Lightning Disaster monitoring and warning is as public's weather forecast
One of with the content of diastrous weather alarm, the level of lightning monitoring accuracy and early-warning and predicting service is improved, the people are related to
The safety and whole society's expanding economy of life.
Generally use three kinds of methods for Lightning Warning at present: the first Lighting position machine method, this method mainly pass through
Networking Lighting position machine is realized to thunder and lightning real-time monitoring, determines the following thunder and lightning according to the thunder and lightning drop point and Wind Data actually occurred
The possible probability settled in an area and occurred.The method defect is to judge that the following lightening activity trend is pre- according to lightning monitoring fact
Alert timeliness lag, and Lighting position machine detection efficient and detection accuracy are depended on, general lightening detection efficiency answers > 70%, detection
Precision < 3km.However Sichuan Province's lightning detection network building time be 2005, actual detection efficiency<50%, detection accuracy>
5km.Since such method is too high to lightning detection network detection efficient and precision dependence in early warning timeliness and accuracy, have
Larger defect, Lightning Warning rate of failing to report is too high, and without timeliness in advance.Second of atmospheric electric field threshold method: this method is logical
One atmospheric electric field detector of installation in a certain Lightning Warning demand point is crossed, Air Close To The Earth Surface electrostatic field under various weather conditions is measured
Intensity, polarity consecutive variations, while electric field change caused by periphery electrification cloud cluster and thunder discharge can be detected, pass through setting
Atmospheric electric field threshold value reaches early warning.Such method needs first study this area's atmospheric electric field detector background value, then are arranged
The anomalous variation atmospheric electric field threshold value of atmospheric electric field when thunder and lightning arriving is preceding or lightning occurs.The third Radar Data early warning: the party
Method is that fact occurs in conjunction with lightning, data grid is revealed same lattice point field using data relevant to thunder and lightning in Radar Products,
The early radar warning factor is determined using dosing method, obtains Lightning Warning index.
Existing early radar warning method is all made of ground weather observation data, exists by orographic factor and investigative range shadow
It rings, the defect of early warning can not be carried out to the region other than plateau and knob and detection site.The present invention provides a kind of base
In the Lightning Warning method of weather satellite data, with to solve the above technical problems.
Summary of the invention
It is influenced the technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to existing in the prior art by orographic factor and investigative range
Technical problem.A kind of new Lightning Warning method based on weather satellite data is provided, it should the thunder and lightning based on weather satellite data
Method for early warning has the characteristics that break through landform limitation.
In order to solve the above technical problems, the technical solution adopted is as follows:
A kind of Lightning Warning method based on weather satellite data, the Lightning Warning method based on weather satellite data
Include:
Step 1, the meteorological satellite observational data of working process space-based observation establish warning data storehouse, real-time monitoring thunder and lightning
The latitude and longitude coordinates and thunder and lightning time of origin of generation；
Step 2, when inquiring nearest apart from this thunder and lightning time of origin in warning data storehouse according to thunder and lightning time of origin
The moonscope data at quarter, the latitude and longitude coordinates calculating occurred further according to thunder and lightning determine that the nearest meteorology of point, which occurs, apart from thunder and lightning defends
Star observation point latitude and longitude coordinates, and it is defined as reference coordinate point, corresponding Black body temperature value T is inquired in warning data storehouse1；
Step 3 defines time deviation t2-t1, according to the reference coordinate point after time deviation t2-t1 query time deviation
Deviation Black body temperature value T2；
Step 4 calculates rate of temperature change △ T=T2-T1/(△t)；
Step 5, according to Black body temperature value T1, deviation Black body temperature value T2And to establish thunder and lightning pre- by rate of temperature change △ T
Alert model；
Step 6, input weather satellite data verify to Lightning Warning model excellent with corresponding thunder and lightning generation data
Change, the early warning accuracy rate for being repeated up to the output of Lightning Warning model reaches preset accuracy rate minimum.
The working principle of the invention: the present invention is built by the analysis and working process of the meteorological data to moonscope
Relationship between vertical moonscope data and thunder and lightning generation, establishes the Lightning Warning model based on moonscope product, utilizes thunder
The electric real-time monitoring data inspection Lightning Warning model, establishes a suitable thunder and lightning method of inspection, and to the Early-warning Model into
Performing check optimization, can be used the optimization algorithms such as iteration, genetic optimization.System of the present invention utilizes meteorological satellite to Sichuan Province area
Data carries out Lightning Warning index study, and achieves preferable early warning effect.
In above scheme, for optimization, further, a possibility that Lightning Warning result occurs according to thunder and lightning from small to large according to
It is secondary to be divided into no early warning, yellow early warning, orange warning, red early warning.
Further, in Lightning Warning model, Black body temperature value T1, deviation Black body temperature value T2It is below 220K, is defined
Time deviation t2-t1 is 30 minutes, when corresponding rate of temperature change △ T=[0K, 5K], and it is red pre- for defining Lightning Warning result
It is alert；When corresponding rate of temperature change △ T > 5K, definition Lightning Warning result is orange warning；
Black body temperature value T1, deviation Black body temperature value T2At [220K, 239K], defining time deviation t2-t1 is 30 points
Clock, when corresponding rate of temperature change △ T=[0K, 5K], definition Lightning Warning result is orange warning；Corresponding rate of temperature change
When △ T > 5K, definition Lightning Warning result is red early warning；
Black body temperature value T1, deviation Black body temperature value T2More than 239K, defining time deviation t2-t1 is 30 minutes, right
When rate of temperature change △ T=[5K, the 10K] answered, definition Lightning Warning result is yellow early warning.
Further, in Lightning Warning model, Black body temperature value T1, deviation Black body temperature value T2It is below 220K, is defined
Time deviation t2-t1 is 15 minutes, when corresponding rate of temperature change △ T=[0K, 5K], and it is red pre- for defining Lightning Warning result
It is alert；When corresponding rate of temperature change △ T > 5K, definition Lightning Warning result is orange warning；
Black body temperature value T1, deviation Black body temperature value T2At [220K, 239K], defining time deviation t2-t1 is 15 points
Clock, when corresponding rate of temperature change △ T=[0K, 5K], definition Lightning Warning result is orange warning；Corresponding rate of temperature change
When △ T > 5K, definition Lightning Warning result is red early warning；
Black body temperature value T1, deviation Black body temperature value T2More than 239K, defining time deviation t2-t1 is 15 minutes, right
When rate of temperature change △ T=[5K, the 10K] answered, definition Lightning Warning result is yellow early warning.
Further, in Lightning Warning model, Black body temperature value T1, deviation Black body temperature value T2It is below 220K, is defined
Time deviation t2-t1 is 45 minutes, when corresponding rate of temperature change △ T=[0K, 5K], and it is red pre- for defining Lightning Warning result
It is alert；When corresponding rate of temperature change △ T > 5K, definition Lightning Warning result is orange warning；
Black body temperature value T1, deviation Black body temperature value T2At [220K, 239K], defining time deviation t2-t1 is 45 points
Clock, when corresponding rate of temperature change △ T=[0K, 5K], definition Lightning Warning result is orange warning；Corresponding rate of temperature change
When △ T > 5K, definition Lightning Warning result is red early warning；
Black body temperature value T1, deviation Black body temperature value T2More than 239K, defining time deviation t2-t1 is 45 minutes, right
When rate of temperature change △ T=[5K, the 10K] answered, definition Lightning Warning result is yellow early warning.
Further, in Lightning Warning model, Black body temperature value T1, deviation Black body temperature value T2It is below 220K, is defined
Time deviation t2-t1 is 60 minutes, when corresponding rate of temperature change △ T=[0K, 5K], and it is red pre- for defining Lightning Warning result
It is alert；When corresponding rate of temperature change △ T > 5K, definition Lightning Warning result is orange warning；
Black body temperature value T1, deviation Black body temperature value T2At [220K, 239K], defining time deviation t2-t1 is 60 points
Clock, when corresponding rate of temperature change △ T=[0K, 5K], definition Lightning Warning result is orange warning；Corresponding rate of temperature change
When △ T > 5K, definition Lightning Warning result is red early warning；
Black body temperature value T1, deviation Black body temperature value T2More than 239K, defining time deviation t2-t1 is 60 minutes, right
When rate of temperature change △ T=[5K, the 10K] answered, definition Lightning Warning result is yellow early warning.
Beneficial effects of the present invention: the meteorological satellite observational data that the present invention uses is space-based observation data, observes model
Very big region can be covered by enclosing, and data control resolution ratio is up to 0.05 ° × 0.05 °.The present invention utilizes Sichuan Province 2009-2012
Year Meteorological Satellites and lightning monitoring data fact realize.With -2014 years 2013 thunder observation data in Sichuan Province
As a result it is verified.2013 and 2014 strong thunder and lighting process is 6 total.Inspection result show red early warning region with it is orange pre-
The total quantity that thunder and lightning occurs for police region domain accounts for 90% or more of sum, i.e. early warning accuracy rate is 90% or more.
Detailed description of the invention
Present invention will be further explained below with reference to the attached drawings and examples.
Fig. 1, the Lightning Warning method flow schematic diagram based on weather satellite data in embodiment 1.
Fig. 2 calculates the schematic diagram of reference coordinate point.
Specific embodiment
In order to make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of the present invention clearer, with reference to embodiments, to the present invention
It is further elaborated.It should be appreciated that described herein, specific examples are only used to explain the present invention, is not used to limit
The fixed present invention.
Embodiment 1
The Lightning Warning method based on weather satellite data that the present embodiment provides a kind of, such as Fig. 1 are described to be based on meteorological satellite
The Lightning Warning method of data includes:
Step 1, the meteorological satellite observational data of working process space-based observation establish warning data storehouse, real-time monitoring thunder and lightning
The latitude and longitude coordinates and thunder and lightning time of origin of generation；
Step 2, when inquiring nearest apart from this thunder and lightning time of origin in warning data storehouse according to thunder and lightning time of origin
The moonscope data at quarter, the latitude and longitude coordinates calculating occurred further according to thunder and lightning determine that the nearest meteorology of point, which occurs, apart from thunder and lightning defends
Star observation point latitude and longitude coordinates, and it is defined as reference coordinate point, corresponding Black body temperature value T is inquired in warning data storehouse1；
Step 3 defines time deviation t2-t1, according to the reference coordinate point after time deviation t2-t1 query time deviation
Deviation Black body temperature value T2；
Step 4 calculates rate of temperature change △ T=T2-T1/(△t)；
Step 5, according to Black body temperature value T1, deviation Black body temperature value T2And to establish thunder and lightning pre- by rate of temperature change △ T
Alert model；
Step 6, input weather satellite data verify to Lightning Warning model excellent with corresponding thunder and lightning generation data
Change, the early warning accuracy rate for being repeated up to the output of Lightning Warning model reaches preset accuracy rate minimum.
In the present embodiment, a possibility that Lightning Warning result can occur according to thunder and lightning, is divided into from small to large without pre-
Police, yellow early warning, orange warning, red early warning.It is calculated in the present embodiment and determines a meteorological satellite nearest apart from thunder and lightning generation point
Observation point latitude and longitude coordinates can be determined according to the method in Fig. 2.
Specifically, in Lightning Warning model, Black body temperature value T1, deviation Black body temperature value T2220K is below, when definition
Between deviation t2-t1 be 30 minutes, when corresponding rate of temperature change △ T=[0K, 5K], it is red pre- for defining Lightning Warning result
It is alert；When corresponding rate of temperature change △ T > 5K, definition Lightning Warning result is orange warning；
Black body temperature value T1, deviation Black body temperature value T2At [220K, 239K], defining time deviation t2-t1 is 30 points
Clock, when corresponding rate of temperature change △ T=[0K, 5K], definition Lightning Warning result is orange warning；Corresponding rate of temperature change
When △ T > 5K, definition Lightning Warning result is red early warning；
Black body temperature value T1, deviation Black body temperature value T2More than 239K, defining time deviation t2-t1 is 30 minutes, right
When rate of temperature change △ T=[5K, the 10K] answered, definition Lightning Warning result is yellow early warning.
Specifically, in Lightning Warning model, Black body temperature value T1, deviation Black body temperature value T2220K is below, when definition
Between deviation t2-t1 be 15 minutes, when corresponding rate of temperature change △ T=[0K, 5K], it is red pre- for defining Lightning Warning result
It is alert；When corresponding rate of temperature change △ T > 5K, definition Lightning Warning result is orange warning；
Black body temperature value T1, deviation Black body temperature value T2At [220K, 239K], defining time deviation t2-t1 is 15 points
Clock, when corresponding rate of temperature change △ T=[0K, 5K], definition Lightning Warning result is orange warning；Corresponding rate of temperature change
When △ T > 5K, definition Lightning Warning result is red early warning；
Black body temperature value T1, deviation Black body temperature value T2More than 239K, defining time deviation t2-t1 is 15 minutes, right
When rate of temperature change △ T=[5K, the 10K] answered, definition Lightning Warning result is yellow early warning.
Specifically, in Lightning Warning model, Black body temperature value T1, deviation Black body temperature value T2220K is below, when definition
Between deviation t2-t1 be 45 minutes, when corresponding rate of temperature change △ T=[0K, 5K], it is red pre- for defining Lightning Warning result
It is alert；When corresponding rate of temperature change △ T > 5K, definition Lightning Warning result is orange warning；
Black body temperature value T1, deviation Black body temperature value T2At [220K, 239K], defining time deviation t2-t1 is 45 points
Clock, when corresponding rate of temperature change △ T=[0K, 5K], definition Lightning Warning result is orange warning；Corresponding rate of temperature change
When △ T > 5K, definition Lightning Warning result is red early warning；
Black body temperature value T1, deviation Black body temperature value T2More than 239K, defining time deviation t2-t1 is 45 minutes, right
When rate of temperature change △ T=[5K, the 10K] answered, definition Lightning Warning result is yellow early warning.
Specifically, in Lightning Warning model, Black body temperature value T1, deviation Black body temperature value T2220K is below, when definition
Between deviation t2-t1 be 60 minutes, when corresponding rate of temperature change △ T=[0K, 5K], it is red pre- for defining Lightning Warning result
It is alert；When corresponding rate of temperature change △ T > 5K, definition Lightning Warning result is orange warning；
Black body temperature value T1, deviation Black body temperature value T2At [220K, 239K], defining time deviation t2-t1 is 60 points
Clock, when corresponding rate of temperature change △ T=[0K, 5K], definition Lightning Warning result is orange warning；Corresponding rate of temperature change
When △ T > 5K, definition Lightning Warning result is red early warning；
Black body temperature value T1, deviation Black body temperature value T2More than 239K, defining time deviation t2-t1 is 60 minutes, right
When rate of temperature change △ T=[5K, the 10K] answered, definition Lightning Warning result is yellow early warning.
As reporting is bigger, the number that Early-warning Model optimization needs is more.
Although the illustrative specific embodiment of the present invention is described above, in order to the technology of the art
Personnel are it will be appreciated that the present invention, but the present invention is not limited only to the range of specific embodiment, to the common skill of the art
For art personnel, as long as long as various change the attached claims limit and determine spirit and scope of the invention in, one
The innovation and creation using present inventive concept are cut in the column of protection.
Claims (6)
1. a kind of Lightning Warning method based on weather satellite data, it is characterised in that: the thunder based on weather satellite data
Electric method for early warning includes
Step 1, the meteorological satellite observational data of working process space-based observation establish warning data storehouse, and real-time monitoring thunder and lightning occurs
Latitude and longitude coordinates and thunder and lightning time of origin；
Step 2 is inquired in warning data storehouse according to thunder and lightning time of origin apart from this thunder and lightning time of origin nearest moment
Moonscope data, the latitude and longitude coordinates calculating occurred further according to thunder and lightning determine that the nearest meteorological satellite of point, which occurs, apart from thunder and lightning sees
Measuring point latitude and longitude coordinates, and it is defined as reference coordinate point, corresponding Black body temperature value T is inquired in warning data storehouse1；
Step 3 defines time deviation t2-t1, according to the inclined of the reference coordinate point after time deviation t2-t1 query time deviation
Poor Black body temperature value T2；
Step 4 calculates rate of temperature change △ T=T2-T1/(△t)；
Step 5, according to Black body temperature value T1, deviation Black body temperature value T2And rate of temperature change △ T establishes Lightning Warning mould
Type；
Step 6, input weather satellite data occur data with corresponding thunder and lightning and carry out verifying optimization to Lightning Warning model, weight
The multiple early warning accuracy rate exported up to Lightning Warning model reaches preset accuracy rate minimum.
2. the Lightning Warning method according to claim 1 based on weather satellite data, it is characterised in that: the thunder and lightning is pre-
A possibility that alert result occurs according to thunder and lightning is divided into no early warning, yellow early warning, orange warning, red early warning from small to large.
3. the Lightning Warning method according to claim 2 based on weather satellite data, it is characterised in that: Lightning Warning mould
In type, Black body temperature value T1, deviation Black body temperature value T2It is below 220K, defining time deviation t2-t1 is 30 minutes, corresponding
When rate of temperature change △ T=[0K, 5K], definition Lightning Warning result is red early warning；Corresponding rate of temperature change △ T > 5K
When, definition Lightning Warning result is orange warning；
Black body temperature value T1, deviation Black body temperature value T2At [220K, 239K], defining time deviation t2-t1 is 30 minutes, right
When rate of temperature change △ T=[0K, the 5K] answered, definition Lightning Warning result is orange warning；Corresponding rate of temperature change △ T >
When 5K, definition Lightning Warning result is red early warning；
Black body temperature value T1, deviation Black body temperature value T2More than 239K, defining time deviation t2-t1 is 30 minutes, corresponding
When rate of temperature change △ T=[5K, 10K], definition Lightning Warning result is yellow early warning.
4. the Lightning Warning method according to claim 2 based on weather satellite data, it is characterised in that:
In Lightning Warning model, Black body temperature value T1, deviation Black body temperature value T2It is below 220K, defines time deviation t2-t1
It is 15 minutes, when corresponding rate of temperature change △ T=[0K, 5K], definition Lightning Warning result is red early warning；Corresponding temperature
When change rate △ T > 5K, definition Lightning Warning result is orange warning；
Black body temperature value T1, deviation Black body temperature value T2At [220K, 239K], defining time deviation t2-t1 is 15 minutes, right
When rate of temperature change △ T=[0K, the 5K] answered, definition Lightning Warning result is orange warning；Corresponding rate of temperature change △ T >
When 5K, definition Lightning Warning result is red early warning；
Black body temperature value T1, deviation Black body temperature value T2More than 239K, defining time deviation t2-t1 is 15 minutes, corresponding
When rate of temperature change △ T=[5K, 10K], definition Lightning Warning result is yellow early warning.
5. the Lightning Warning method according to claim 2 based on weather satellite data, it is characterised in that:
In Lightning Warning model, Black body temperature value T1, deviation Black body temperature value T2It is below 220K, defines time deviation t2-t1
It is 45 minutes, when corresponding rate of temperature change △ T=[0K, 5K], definition Lightning Warning result is red early warning；Corresponding temperature
When change rate △ T > 5K, definition Lightning Warning result is orange warning；
Black body temperature value T1, deviation Black body temperature value T2At [220K, 239K], defining time deviation t2-t1 is 45 minutes, right
When rate of temperature change △ T=[0K, the 5K] answered, definition Lightning Warning result is orange warning；Corresponding rate of temperature change △ T >
When 5K, definition Lightning Warning result is red early warning；
Black body temperature value T1, deviation Black body temperature value T2More than 239K, defining time deviation t2-t1 is 45 minutes, corresponding
When rate of temperature change △ T=[5K, 10K], definition Lightning Warning result is yellow early warning.
6. the Lightning Warning method according to claim 2 based on weather satellite data, it is characterised in that:
In Lightning Warning model, Black body temperature value T1, deviation Black body temperature value T2It is below 220K, defines time deviation t2-t1
It is 60 minutes, when corresponding rate of temperature change △ T=[0K, 5K], definition Lightning Warning result is red early warning；Corresponding temperature
When change rate △ T > 5K, definition Lightning Warning result is orange warning；
Black body temperature value T1, deviation Black body temperature value T2At [220K, 239K], defining time deviation t2-t1 is 60 minutes, right
When rate of temperature change △ T=[0K, the 5K] answered, definition Lightning Warning result is orange warning；Corresponding rate of temperature change △ T >
When 5K, definition Lightning Warning result is red early warning；
Black body temperature value T1, deviation Black body temperature value T2More than 239K, defining time deviation t2-t1 is 60 minutes, corresponding
When rate of temperature change △ T=[5K, 10K], definition Lightning Warning result is yellow early warning.
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Application publication date: 20190308 |