CN109376978B - Uncertainty analysis method based on Monte Carlo beer equipment environment influence evaluation - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention provides an uncertainty analysis method based on Monte Carlo beer equipment environmental impact evaluation, which comprises the following steps: 1) collecting beer equipment resources and energy consumption lists in the life cycle process; 2) determining environmental impact indexes in the life cycle process of beer equipment; 3) calculating the total environmental impact load of the beer equipment; 4) carrying out environmental impact evaluation on beer equipment; 5) carrying out uncertainty analysis on the beer equipment environmental influence indexes determined in the step 4; 6) determining an input variable; 7) determining a variation range/probability distribution of the input variables; 8) carrying out Monte Carlo random sampling on the determined probability distribution of the input variables; 9) and analyzing the output result by using the R language. The analysis method can more accurately reflect the value distribution in the input probability distribution, increase the accuracy of environmental influence, provide more reliable and comprehensive decision support for environmental protection departments, and have certain positive significance on environmental management and protection.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of beer equipment environment influence evaluation, and relates to an uncertainty analysis method based on Monte Carlo beer equipment environment influence evaluation.
Background
The development of beer equipment in China is late, most of beer production equipment is below a semi-automation level, and improvement on the aspects of energy conservation and consumption reduction is needed. At present, the environmental impact evaluation of the beer technology is more, and research finds that: the production of beer bottles, beer brewing, beer packaging and raw material acquisition are the stages which have great influence on the environment in sequence in the life cycle of beer. Environmental impact evaluation is mostly used in a comprehensive evaluation system, the specific research on the environmental impact of beer equipment is less, and uncertain analysis on the environmental impact related to beer is also rarely reported. The method is based on a Monte Carlo random sampling method, and comprehensively analyzes uncertainty factors in the evaluation process of the environmental impact of beer equipment.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to overcome the defects of the prior art and provide uncertainty analysis based on Monte Carlo beer equipment environment influence evaluation, and the method can accurately judge the influence of the beer equipment on the environment and quantitatively process uncertain factors in the environment and the influence. And to propose improvement measures.
The technical problem to be solved by the invention is realized by the following technical scheme:
an uncertainty analysis method based on Monte Carlo beer equipment environmental impact evaluation is characterized in that: the method comprises the following steps:
1) collecting resource and energy consumption lists of beer equipment in the life cycle process, and establishing a life cycle evaluation model of the beer equipment in efoot print software, as shown in fig. 2, the life cycle boundary of the beer equipment in fig. 2 comprises six stages of raw material mining, raw material transportation, production and manufacturing stages of a main body part of the beer equipment, transportation stages of the beer equipment, use processes and waste treatment of the beer equipment, the manufacturing stage of the beer equipment mainly comprises manufacturing and installing processes of a saccharifying tank and a fermenting tank of the beer equipment, the waste treatment stage mainly comprises two parts of melting and recycling, 61.7% of materials are recycled, the rest of materials are buried, and the resource, energy consumption and pollutant emission can be caused in the whole life cycle process of the beer equipment. The resources comprise stainless steel and carbon steel, and the energy sources comprise electric power and water.
2) Determining environmental impact indexes in the beer equipment life cycle process: the environmental impact indexes comprise resource consumption and environmental pollution, and the environmental pollution comprises three types of global warming potential GWP, acidification potential AP and eutrophication potential EP; the resource consumption comprises two types of primary energy consumption PED and water resource consumption WU;
3) calculating the total environmental impact load of the beer equipment: the ratio of the environmental impact characterization result of each life cycle stage of the beer equipment to the normalization result of each environmental impact index in the CML2001Dec07 model is multiplied by the weight factor, so that the total environmental impact load of each stage of the life cycle of the beer equipment can be obtained:
Ni＝Ci/Si
∑WFi＝∑(Wi×Ni)
wherein i represents the life cycle phases of the beer plant, CiCharacterizing the environmental impact of the beer equipment; siAnd WiRespectively normalizing results and weight factors of all environmental impact indexes in the CML2001Dec07 model; WFiThe total environmental impact load of each life cycle stage of the beer equipment;
4) evaluation of environmental impact of beer facility: determining an environmental influence index which has the most representative influence on the environment in the beer equipment life cycle model;
5) carrying out uncertainty analysis on the beer equipment environmental influence indexes determined in the step 4: because more uncertain factors exist in the processes of data calculation, evaluation model establishment, data deletion and the like, and the accuracy of environmental evaluation is influenced, the uncertainty analysis of the beer equipment environmental influence evaluation is required;
6) determining an input variable: seven input variables of the beer equipment are selected, including the following:
a, the mass of a main component saccharification tank of beer equipment;
b, the quality of a fermentation tank of a main body part of the beer equipment;
c, power consumption of beer equipment in the using process;
d carbon emission coefficient of stainless steel;
e carbon emission coefficient of the power;
f, carbon emission coefficient of steel recovery treatment;
g carbon emission coefficient in the process of manufacturing and installing beer equipment;
7) determining the variation range/probability distribution of the input variables: the quality of the beer equipment obeys normal distribution, the power consumption obeys triangular distribution, and the variation range of the carbon emission coefficient is +/-5%;
8) the determined probability distribution of the input variables is subjected to monte carlo random sampling:
generating random input data by using Monte Carlo in R language, sampling for 1000 times, generating input data according to functional relation, and obtaining output result;
9) analyzing the output result by using R language: and obtaining factors causing large uncertainty in beer equipment environment influence evaluation and main environment influence factors.
The invention has the advantages and beneficial effects that:
1. the Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis method is applied to evaluate the environmental influence of the beer equipment, so that the environmental influence of each index in the life cycle process of the beer equipment can be quantitatively and objectively analyzed, the main environmental influence of the beer equipment is judged, the evaluation is accurate, the operation is convenient, the subjective influence is small, and the application prospect is wide. Because the previous research does not relate to the research on beer equipment, the uncertainty analysis of the environmental impact evaluation of the beer equipment by using the Monte Carlo method is few and few, and the problems of complex operation and high cost in the traditional method are also avoided. The result of uncertain analysis of the influence evaluation of Monte Carlo random sampling on the beer equipment environment has certain mathematical significance and physical significance, is high in reliability, can be popularized to other models, and has certain practical value.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of an uncertainty analysis method based on Monte Carlo beer facility environmental impact evaluation;
FIG. 2 is a life cycle evaluation model of the beer apparatus of the present invention;
FIG. 3(a) is a graph of uncertainty analysis (cumulative probability density function) based on Monte Carlo beer equipment global warming potential;
FIG. 3(b) is a graph (probability density) of uncertainty analysis based on the Monte Carlo beer equipment global warming potential.
Detailed Description
The present invention is further illustrated by the following specific examples, which are intended to be illustrative, not limiting and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention.
An uncertainty analysis method based on Monte Carlo beer equipment environmental impact evaluation comprises the following steps:
1) collecting resource and energy consumption lists of beer equipment in the life cycle process, and establishing a life cycle evaluation model of the beer equipment in efoot print software, as shown in fig. 2, the life cycle boundary of the beer equipment in fig. 2 comprises six stages of raw material mining, raw material transportation, production and manufacturing stages of a main body part of the beer equipment, transportation stages of the beer equipment, use processes and waste treatment of the beer equipment, the manufacturing stage of the beer equipment mainly comprises manufacturing and installing processes of a saccharifying tank and a fermenting tank of the beer equipment, the waste treatment stage mainly comprises two parts of melting and recycling, 61.7% of materials are recycled, the rest of materials are buried, and the resource, energy consumption and pollutant emission can be caused in the whole life cycle process of the beer equipment. The resources comprise stainless steel and carbon steel, and the energy sources comprise electric power and water.
The resource and energy consumption list in the life cycle process of the beer equipment collected in this embodiment is shown in table 1:
TABLE 1 resource and energy consumption List in the beer equipment lifecycle process
2) Determining environmental impact indexes in the beer equipment life cycle process: the environmental impact indexes comprise resource consumption and environmental pollution, and the environmental pollution comprises three types of global warming potential GWP, acidification potential AP and eutrophication potential EP; the resource consumption comprises two types of primary energy consumption PED and water resource consumption WU; as shown in table 2
TABLE 2 environmental impact index during the beer equipment lifecycle
| Environmental impact type indicator | Influence type index Unit | Main list of substances |
| Climate change | kg CO2 eq. | CO2,CH4,N2O… |
| Primary energy consumption | MJ | Hard coal, brown coal, natural gas. |
| Acidification | mol H+eq. | SO2,NOx,NH3… |
| Consumption of water resources | kg | 1.147E+010 |
| Eutrophication-fresh water | kg Peq./kg Neq. | NH4-N… |
3) Calculating the total environmental impact load of the beer equipment: the ratio of the environmental impact characterization result of each life cycle stage of the beer equipment to the normalization result (shown in table 3) of each environmental impact index in the CML2001Dec07 model is multiplied by the weight factor, so as to obtain the total environmental impact load of each life cycle stage of the beer equipment:
TABLE 3
| Environmental impact index | Equivalent unit | Reference value | Weight of |
| GWP | kgCO2-Equiv. | 4.18E013 | 9.3 |
| AP | kgSO2-Equiv. | 2.39E011 | 6.1 |
| EP | kg Phosphate-Equiv. | 1.58E011 | 6.6 |
Ni＝Ci/Si
∑WFi＝∑(Wi×Ni)
Wherein i represents the life cycle phases of the beer plant, CiCharacterizing the environmental impact of the beer equipment; siAnd WiRespectively normalizing results and weight factors of all environmental impact indexes in the CML2001Dec07 model; WFiThe total environmental impact load of each life cycle stage of the beer equipment; the calculation results are shown in table 4:
TABLE 4
| Type of influence | Production process stage | Stage of transportation | Stage of use | Waste recovery | Total up to |
| GWP | 9.23E+05 | 127.275 | 3.06E+06 | -1.50E+03 | 3.98E+06 |
| PED | 1.21E+07 | 1.91E+03 | 4.03E+07 | -1.50E+03 | 5.24E+07 |
| WU | 3.62E+06 | 3.60E+06 | 1.15E+10 | -1.26E+04 | 1.15E+10 |
| AP | 5.21E+03 | 1.193 | 1.65E+04 | -5.905 | 2.17E+04 |
| EP | 3.21E+02 | 1.96E-01 | 1.48E+03 | -4.52E-01 | 1.80E+03 |
| Total up to | 1.66E+07 | 3.60E+06 | 1.15E+10 | -1.56E+04 | 1.16E+10 |
4) Evaluation of environmental impact of beer facility:
determining an environmental influence index which has the most representative influence on the environment in the beer equipment life cycle model;
it can be seen from table 4 that the resource consumption (water resource consumption WU and primary energy consumption PED) is the most serious in the use stage of the beer equipment in the life cycle process, and mainly a large amount of electric power and water are used in the use process, and the optimization of the electric power structure is suggested, so that the modes of wind power generation, water conservancy generation and the like can be increased, and the utilization rate of industrial water is improved. And secondly, the global warming potential value accounts for 69.95% of the total environmental influence, and because the global warming potential value is the most representative index of the environmental influence and is also the index of carbon footprint important research in the food industry, uncertainty analysis is selected to be carried out on the global warming potential value. The environmental impact potential value of the waste recovery stage is a negative value, which indicates that the environmental impact is positive benefit, and the loss of a part of raw materials to the environment is offset.
5) Carrying out uncertainty analysis on the beer equipment environmental influence indexes determined in the step 4: because more uncertain factors exist in the processes of data calculation, evaluation model establishment, data deletion and the like, and the accuracy of environmental evaluation is influenced, the uncertainty analysis of the beer equipment environmental influence evaluation is required; and carrying out uncertainty analysis on the global warming index.
6) Determining an input variable: seven input variables of the beer equipment are selected, including the following:
a, the mass of a main component saccharification tank of beer equipment;
b, the quality of a fermentation tank of a main body part of the beer equipment;
c, power consumption of beer equipment in the using process;
d carbon emission coefficient of stainless steel;
e carbon emission coefficient of the power;
f, carbon emission coefficient of steel recovery treatment;
g carbon emission coefficient in the process of manufacturing and installing beer equipment;
the input variables/ranges of variation were determined as shown in table 5.
TABLE 5 input variables/variation Range
7) Determining the variation range/probability distribution of the input variables: the quality of the beer equipment obeys normal distribution, the power consumption obeys triangular distribution, and the variation range of the carbon emission coefficient is +/-5%;
8) the determined probability distribution of the input variables is subjected to monte carlo random sampling:
generating random input data by using Monte Carlo in R language, sampling for 1000 times, generating input data according to functional relation, and obtaining output result;
8) analyzing the output result by using R language: and obtaining factors causing large uncertainty in beer equipment environment influence evaluation and main environment influence factors.
The results shown in FIG. 3(a) (b) show that: with the increase of the sampling times, when the sampling times are 1000 times, the result of the global warming potential value is more stable and reliable, and the median value is 3.98 multiplied by 106kgCO2eq, quartering distance 3.77X 106kgCO2 eq. In connection with table 4, it can be seen that the environmental impact of the usage phase on GWP is most important, and of the impact on GWP, the usage phase is also most severe, and the environmental impact of water consumption and power on GWP is the greatest because the usage phase consumes a large amount of power and water. Therefore, the influence of the using stage on GWP can be reduced by reducing the using amount of water in the using process of the beer equipment and changing the power structure. Although the present invention has been disclosed in connection with the embodiments and drawings, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that: various substitutions, changes and modifications are possible without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention and the appended claims, and therefore the scope of the invention is not limited to the disclosure of the embodiments and the accompanying drawings.
Claims (1)
1. An uncertainty analysis method based on Monte Carlo beer equipment environmental impact evaluation is characterized in that: the method comprises the following steps:
1) collecting beer equipment resources and energy consumption lists in the life cycle process, and establishing a life cycle evaluation model of the beer equipment in efoot print software: the resources comprise stainless steel and carbon steel, the energy comprises electric power and water, and the life cycle stage of the beer equipment comprises the production and manufacturing stages of a main saccharification tank and a fermentation tank of the beer equipment, the transportation stage and the use process of the beer equipment and the waste treatment stage of the beer equipment;
2) determining environmental impact indexes in the beer equipment life cycle process: the environmental impact indexes comprise resource consumption and environmental pollution, and the environmental pollution comprises three types of global warming potential GWP, acidification potential AP and eutrophication potential EP; the resource consumption comprises two types of primary energy consumption PED and water resource consumption WU;
3) calculating the total environmental impact load of the beer equipment: the ratio of the environmental impact characterization result of each life cycle stage of the beer equipment to the normalization result of each environmental impact index in the CML2001Dec07 model is multiplied by the weight factor, so that the total environmental impact load of each stage of the life cycle of the beer equipment can be obtained:
Ni＝Ci/Si
∑WFi＝∑(Wi×Ni)
wherein i represents the life cycle phases of the beer plant, CiCharacterizing the environmental impact of the beer equipment; siAnd WiRespectively normalizing results and weight factors of all environmental impact indexes in the CML2001Dec07 model; WFiThe total environmental impact load of each life cycle stage of the beer equipment;
4) evaluation of environmental impact of beer facility: determining an environmental influence index which has the most representative influence on the environment in the beer equipment life cycle model;
5) carrying out uncertainty analysis on the beer equipment environmental influence indexes determined in the step 4: because more uncertain factors exist in the processes of data calculation, evaluation model establishment, data deletion and the like, and the accuracy of environmental evaluation is influenced, the uncertainty analysis of the beer equipment environmental influence evaluation is required;
6) determining an input variable: seven input variables of the beer equipment are selected, including the following:
a, the mass of a main component saccharification tank of beer equipment;
b, the quality of a fermentation tank of a main body part of the beer equipment;
c, power consumption of beer equipment in the using process;
d carbon emission coefficient of stainless steel;
e carbon emission coefficient of the power;
f, carbon emission coefficient of steel recovery treatment;
g carbon emission coefficient in the process of manufacturing and installing beer equipment;
7) determining the variation range/probability distribution of the input variables: the quality of the beer equipment obeys normal distribution, the power consumption obeys triangular distribution, and the variation range of the carbon emission coefficient is +/-5%;
8) the determined probability distribution of the input variables is subjected to monte carlo random sampling:
generating random input data by using Monte Carlo in R language, sampling for 1000 times, generating input data according to functional relation, and obtaining output result;
9) analyzing the output result by using R language: and obtaining factors causing large uncertainty in beer equipment environment influence evaluation and main environment influence factors.
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| CN106940830A (en) * | 2016-01-04 | 2017-07-11 | 中国环境科学研究院 | Future Climate Change is on bio-diversity influence and risk integrative assessment technology |
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| CN106940830A (en) * | 2016-01-04 | 2017-07-11 | 中国环境科学研究院 | Future Climate Change is on bio-diversity influence and risk integrative assessment technology |
| CN105808952A (en) * | 2016-03-10 | 2016-07-27 | 东南大学 | Quality evaluation method of life cycle assessment data |
| CN107045672A (en) * | 2017-03-27 | 2017-08-15 | 广州能源检测研究院 | A kind of evaluation method of community's low carbon levels |
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