CN109165861A - A kind of radiationless data area solar energy total radiation evaluation method - Google Patents

A kind of radiationless data area solar energy total radiation evaluation method Download PDF

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CN109165861A
CN109165861A CN201811037474.8A CN201811037474A CN109165861A CN 109165861 A CN109165861 A CN 109165861A CN 201811037474 A CN201811037474 A CN 201811037474A CN 109165861 A CN109165861 A CN 109165861A
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radiation
month
radiationless
station
percentage
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石军
张洋
巫黎明
潘晓春
王晓惠
程春龙
沈旭伟
王鹏
徐君民
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China Energy Engineering Group Jiangsu Power Design Institute Co Ltd
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    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
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    • G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
    • G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
    • G06Q10/0639—Performance analysis of employees; Performance analysis of enterprise or organisation operations
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00—Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/06—Electricity, gas or water supply
    • Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
    • Y02A—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
    • Y02A90/00—Technologies having an indirect contribution to adaptation to climate change
    • Y02A90/10—Information and communication technologies [ICT] supporting adaptation to climate change, e.g. for weather forecasting or climate simulation

Abstract

The present invention relates to a kind of radiationless data area solar energy total radiation evaluation methods, including calculate each radiation and represent station solar energy global radiation moon empirical coefficient a, b value, divide percentage of sunshine variation zone；The radiation in each percentage of sunshine variation zone is calculated to represent a, b value at station and calculate each radiationless solar energy total radiation month by month over the years of standing of making weather observations；Radiationless data area solar energy total radiation estimation precision is improved, while direct support can be provided for radiationless data area photovoltaic power generation engineering design.

Description

A kind of radiationless data area solar energy total radiation evaluation method
Technical field
The invention belongs to photovoltaic power generation engineering solar energy resources assessment technology fields, and in particular to a kind of radiationless data Area's solar energy total radiation evaluation method.
Background technique
Solar radiation data are for calculating the Significant Meteorological Information of annual electricity generating capacity in photovoltaic power generation engineering, according to " photovoltaic Power station design specification " (GB50797-2012) and " photovoltaic power generation engineering feasibility study Report workout method " (tentative) The requirement of GD003-2011, photovoltaic power generation requirement of engineering analyze for many years solar radiation observation data month by month.
However, China's solar radiation observation website is sparse, and solar radiation observation data deficiencies, such as by taking Jiangsu Province as an example, river The totally 70 national weather observation stations Su Sheng, but only there are solar radiation quantity observational data in Nanjing, Lv Si and 3, Huaian weather station. For above situation, it would be highly desirable to need to establish Cross Some Region Without Data solar energy resources appraisal procedure, to meet photovoltaic power generation engineering design Needs.
Secondary climatic variations method constructs empirical model estimation solar energy global radiation in China using relatively broad.Practice card It is bright, with percentage of sunshine model QM=Q0(a+bS), (Q in formulaMTotal radiation, Q are surveyed for the moon0For moon climatologically calculation amount, S is Percentage of sunshine, a, b are empirical coefficient) be representative secondary climatic variations method it is easy to use, landform is flat, atmospheric environment shape The more single regional precision of condition is very high, most importantly determines empirical coefficient a, b value using rational method when calculating.
Currently, determining that empirical coefficient a, b value commonly use anti-distance weighting interpolation method, nothing is determined using anti-distance weighting interpolation method Radiation data regional experience coefficient a, b value, does not account for the inner link of different regions solar radiation, with estimating radiationless data Area's solar energy total radiation and actual capabilities deviation are larger.
Summary of the invention
To solve above-mentioned the technical problems existing in the prior art, the present invention provides one kind to be based on percentage of sunshine subregion The radiationless data area solar energy total radiation evaluation method of method improves radiationless data area solar energy total radiation and estimates Precision is calculated, while direct support can be provided for radiationless data area photovoltaic power generation engineering design.
The present invention solves its technical problem and is achieved through the following technical solutions:
A kind of radiationless data area solar energy total radiation evaluation method, comprising the following steps:
Step S1, select the radiationless data for needing to study area and all weather stations for having Radiation Observation in periphery as each Radiation represents station, calculates each radiation and represents station moon climatologically calculation amount month by month over the years, and it is over the years to represent station actual measurement further according to each radiation Actual measurement solar total radiation, percentage of sunshine and percentage of sunshine models fitting month by month over the years month by month, obtain each radiation and represent station The solar energy global radiation moon empirical coefficient a, b value；
Step S2, in radiationless make weather observations station and the step S1 in the radiationless data area studied needs The percentage of sunshine sequence month by month over the years that each radiation represents station carries out REOF analysis, by absolute value >=0.60 of payload values and without spoke The region division for penetrating quantity >=4 at station of making weather observations is the same percentage of sunshine variation zone；
Step S3, according to ready-portioned percentage of sunshine variation zone situation in the step S2, if percentage of sunshine changes It is no less than 2 radiation in area and represents station, then the total spoke of solar energy at the radiationless station of making weather observations in the percentage of sunshine variation zone Moon empirical coefficient a, b value is penetrated using respectively radiation represents the average value of a, b value at station in the percentage of sunshine variation zone；If sunshine hundred Divide only 1 radiation representative station in rate variation zone, then the sun at the radiationless station of making weather observations in the percentage of sunshine variation zone Energy global radiation moon empirical coefficient a, b value represents a, b value at station using the radiation in the percentage of sunshine variation zone；
Step S4, according to the solar energy global radiation moon empirical coefficient a, the b at radiationless station of making weather observations each in the step S3 Value, and each radiationless moon climatologically calculation amount, the actual measurement percentage of sunshine month by month of standing of making weather observations being calculated, using sunshine Percentage model secondary climatic variations method obtains each radiationless solar energy total radiation month by month over the years of standing of making weather observations.
As further improved technical solution, respectively radiation represents station moon climatologically calculation month by month over the years in the step S1 The calculation method of amount is that each radiation first is calculated using day astronomy total solar radiation amount calculation formula and represents station day month by month over the years Astronomical total solar radiation amount, then add up and obtain each radiation representative station moon astronomy total solar radiation amount month by month over the years.
As further improved technical solution, respectively radiation represents station actual measurement actual measurement solar month by month over the years in the step S1 The fitting of total radiation, percentage of sunshine and percentage of sunshine model month by month over the years is using least square method counterglow percentage Model secondary climatic variations formula is fitted, calculation formula are as follows:
QM=Q0(a+bS)
Wherein, QMTotal radiation, Q are surveyed for the moon0For moon climatologically calculation amount, S is percentage of sunshine, and a, b are moon experience system Number.
As further improved technical solution, the REOF analysis in the step S2, refers to sunshine hundred month by month over the years Divide rate to carry out EOF decomposition, then carries out variance on the basis of EOF is decomposed and greatly rotate.
As further improved technical solution, the radiationless data area for needing to study described in the step S1 and week All weather stations for having Radiation Observation in side refer to where the radiationless data area that needs study inside the province and with radiationless money All weather stations for having Radiation Observation inside the province that province where material area directly borders on.
As further improved technical solution, the day astronomy total solar radiation amount calculation formula are as follows:
Wherein, QnFor day astronomy total solar radiation amount, unit is MJ/ (m2·d)；T is the time cycle, herein for 24 × 60min·d-1；I0It is herein 0.0820 for solar constant, unit is MJ/ (m2·min)；ρ is solar distance coefficient, immeasurable Guiding principle；For geographic latitude, unit rad；δ is solar declination, unit rad；ω0For sunset hour angle, unit rad.
As further improved technical solution, the EOF decomposition is that each radiation is represented to station sunshine percentage month by month over the years Rate sequence resolves into the linear combination of orthogonal function, constitutes several orthogonal empirical modals, come characterize Climatic when Space-variant.
The invention has the benefit that
The present invention is based on the percentage of sunshine sequence REOF at make weather observations station and radiation representative station radiationless in survey region Analysis as a result, make weather observations station and radiation represents station spatial-temporal distribution characteristic is consistent is divided in the same region for radiationless, point Radiationless make weather observations stands moon empirical coefficient a, b value using respectively radiation represents the average value of station empirical coefficient in subregion in area, leads to Cross present invention determine that radiationless moon empirical coefficient a, b value of standing of making weather observations than existing nothing is determined using anti-distance weighting interpolation method Radiation data area moon empirical coefficient a, b value is more rational, to improve the total spoke of solar energy in radiationless observational data area The amount of penetrating estimation precision creates advanced technical-economic index for radiationless sector of observation photovoltaic plant engineering design and provides direct branch It holds.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is that Jiangsu Province and the radiation of periphery province represent stage space distribution map；
Fig. 2 is the Huaian not estimation result of same month embodiment, the calculated result of reference examples and measured value comparison diagram；
Fig. 3 is the Lv Si not estimation result of same month embodiment, the calculated result of reference examples and measured value comparison diagram；
Fig. 4 is the Nanjing not estimation result of same month embodiment, the calculated result of reference examples and measured value comparison diagram.
Specific embodiment
Below by specific embodiment, the invention will be further described, and it is not limit that following embodiment, which is descriptive, Qualitatively, this does not limit the scope of protection of the present invention.
Embodiment
A kind of radiationless data area solar energy total radiation evaluation method, the present embodiment choose the radiationless observation in Jiangsu Province Area, only there are Radiation Observation data in Nanjing, Lv Si, three, Huaian weather station in Jiangsu Province, and the specific steps that the present embodiment is implemented are such as Under:
Step S1, Jiangsu Province Huaian, Lv Si, Nanjing and periphery Juxian County, Zhengzhou, solid beginning, Hefei, Golconda, Hangzhou, village are selected Small stream amounts to 10 solar radiation observation stations, and radiation represents stage space distribution and sees Fig. 1, calculates each radiation and represents the station moon month by month over the years Climatologically calculation amount represents station actual measurement actual measurement solar total radiation month by month over the years, sunshine percentage month by month over the years further according to each radiation Rate and percentage of sunshine models fitting obtain each radiation and represent station solar energy global radiation moon empirical coefficient a, b value, need to illustrate It is that each radiation represents the calculation method of the station climatologically calculation amount of the moon month by month over the years first to use day astronomy total solar radiation meter Calculation formula is calculated each radiation and represents station day astronomy total solar radiation amount month by month over the years, then cumulative each radiation representative station that obtains is gone through Year moon astronomy total solar radiation amount month by month, it should be noted that day astronomy total solar radiation amount calculation formula are as follows:
Wherein, QnFor day astronomy total solar radiation amount, unit is MJ/ (m2·d)；T is the time cycle, herein for 24 × 60min·d-1；I0It is herein 0.0820 for solar constant, unit is MJ/ (m2·min)；ρ is solar distance coefficient, immeasurable Guiding principle；For geographic latitude, unit rad；δ is solar declination, unit rad；ω0For sunset hour angle, unit rad；
Step S2, to Jiangsu Province Huaian, Lv Si, Nanjing and periphery Juxian County, Zhengzhou, solid beginning, Hefei, Golconda, Hangzhou, Tunxi Radiationless 1961~2012 years sunshine month by month over the years in station of making weather observations in total 10 solar radiation observation stations and 54, Jiangsu Province Percentage data sequence carries out REOF analysis.It should be noted that REOF analysis refers to percentage of sunshine carries out month by month over the years EOF is decomposed, and is then carried out variance on the basis of EOF is decomposed and is greatly rotated；EOF decomposition is that each radiation is represented to station over the years month by month Percentage of sunshine sequence resolves into the linear combination of orthogonal function, several orthogonal empirical modals is constituted, to characterize weather The change in time and space of variable.By the region division of absolute value >=0.60 of payload values and quantity >=4 at radiationless station of making weather observations For the same percentage of sunshine variation zone, above-mentioned 10 solar radiation observation stations and the radiationless station of making weather observations in 54, Jiangsu Province Percentage of sunshine division result is shown in Table 1；
1 solar radiation observation station of table and the radiationless percentage of sunshine division result of standing of making weather observations in Jiangsu Province
Step S3, according to percentage of sunshine ready-portioned in step S2 variation zone situation, if changing according to percentage of sunshine It is no less than 2 radiation in area and represents station, then the total spoke of solar energy at the radiationless station of making weather observations in the percentage of sunshine variation zone Moon empirical coefficient a, b value is penetrated using respectively radiation represents the average value of a, b value at station in the percentage of sunshine variation zone；If sunshine hundred Divide only 1 radiation representative station in rate variation zone, then the sun at the radiationless station of making weather observations in the percentage of sunshine variation zone Energy global radiation moon empirical coefficient a, b value represents the principle of a, b value at station using the radiation in the percentage of sunshine variation zone, obtains As a result, i.e. radiationless make weather observations in South stands moon empirical coefficient a, b value as Golconda, Hangzhou, Lv Si, Tunxi, Nanjing, 6, Hefei Radiation represent station moon empirical coefficient average value, North is radiationless make weather observations stand moon empirical coefficient a, b value be Juxian County, Huaian, Zheng State, 4 radiation of beginning admittedly represent station moon empirical coefficient average value, and the south calculated accordingly, North month empirical coefficient a, b value are shown in Table 2 and Table 3；
2 South of table month empirical coefficient a, b value
3 North of table month empirical coefficient a, b value
Step S4, according to Jiangsu Province different regions month empirical coefficient a, b value in step S3, formula is utilized
QM=Q0(a+bS)
In formula, QMTotal radiation, Q are surveyed for the moon0For moon climatologically calculation amount, S is percentage of sunshine, and a, b are moon experience system Number calculates separately Huaian, Lv Si, 3 station of Nanjing total solar radiation amount in month by month, 1993~2015.
Reference examples
The Jiangsu Province that anti-distance weighting interpolation obtains is carried out to the moon empirical coefficient that 10 radiation in embodiment represent station Each weather station moon empirical coefficient a, b value, utilizes formula
QM=Q0(a+bS)
In formula, QMTotal radiation, Q are surveyed for the moon0For moon climatologically calculation amount, S is percentage of sunshine, and a, b are moon experience system Number calculates separately the Huaian obtained, Lv Si, 3 station of Nanjing total solar radiation amount in month by month, 1993~2015.
Again by the Huaian of embodiment, Lv Si, 3 station of Nanjing in month by month, 1993~2015 total solar radiation amount estimation result with it is right Total solar radiation amount calculated result compares and analyzes in month by month, 1993~2015 at Huaian, Lv Si, 3 station of Nanjing as usual, as a result The solar energy total radiation for showing that radiationless sector of observation month empirical coefficient a, b value in the Jiangsu Province calculated through the invention is established is estimated Calculate the solar energy total radiation estimation that formula is more suitable for the radiationless sector of observation in Jiangsu Province.Comparing result is shown in Fig. 2-Fig. 4.
In conclusion the present invention is based on the percentage of sunshines at make weather observations station and radiation representative station radiationless in survey region Sequence REOF analysis as a result, by it is radiationless make weather observations station and radiation represent station spatial-temporal distribution characteristic it is consistent be divided in it is same Region, radiationless make weather observations stands moon empirical coefficient a, b value using respectively radiation represents the flat of station empirical coefficient in subregion in subregion Mean value, radiationless make weather observations of determination stands moon empirical coefficient a, b value than the anti-distance weighting interpolation of existing use through the invention Method determines that radiationless data regional experience coefficient a, b value is more rational, to improve the sun in radiationless observational data area Energy total radiation estimation precision is created advanced technical-economic index for radiationless sector of observation photovoltaic plant engineering design and is provided Directly support.
The above is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, it is noted that for the ordinary skill people of the art For member, various improvements and modifications may be made without departing from the principle of the present invention, these improvements and modifications are also answered It is considered as protection scope of the present invention.

Claims (7)

1. a kind of radiationless data area solar energy total radiation evaluation method, which comprises the following steps:
Step S1, it selects to need the radiationless data studied area and all weather stations for having Radiation Observation in periphery as each radiation Station is represented, each radiation is calculated and represents station moon climatologically calculation amount month by month over the years, it is over the years month by month to represent station actual measurement further according to each radiation Actual measurement solar total radiation, percentage of sunshine and percentage of sunshine models fitting month by month over the years obtain each radiation and represent the station sun Energy global radiation moon empirical coefficient a, b value；
Step S2, each spoke in radiationless make weather observations station and the step S1 in the radiationless data area studied needs The progress of the percentage of sunshine sequence month by month REOF analysis over the years for representing station is penetrated, by absolute value >=0.60 of payload values and radiationless sight The region division for surveying quantity >=4 of weather station is the same percentage of sunshine variation zone；
Step S3, according to ready-portioned percentage of sunshine variation zone situation in the step S2, if in percentage of sunshine variation zone No less than 2 radiation represent station, then the solar energy global radiation moon at the radiationless station of making weather observations in the percentage of sunshine variation zone Empirical coefficient a, b value is using respectively radiation represents the average value of a, b value at station in the percentage of sunshine variation zone；If percentage of sunshine Only have 1 radiation to represent station in variation zone, then the solar energy at the radiationless station of making weather observations in the percentage of sunshine variation zone is total Radiate a, b value that moon empirical coefficient a, b value represents station using the radiation in the percentage of sunshine variation zone；
Step S4, according to solar energy global radiation moon empirical coefficient a, b value at radiationless station of making weather observations each in the step S3, with And each radiationless moon climatologically calculation amount, the actual measurement percentage of sunshine month by month of standing of making weather observations being calculated, using sunshine percentage Rate model secondary climatic variations method obtains each radiationless solar energy total radiation month by month over the years of standing of making weather observations.
2. a kind of radiationless data area solar energy total radiation evaluation method according to claim 1, which is characterized in that The calculation method that respectively radiation represents the station climatologically calculation amount of the moon month by month over the years in the step S1 is first total using the day astronomy sun Amount of radiation calculation formula is calculated each radiation and represents station day astronomy total solar radiation amount month by month over the years, then adds up and obtain each radiation Represent station moon astronomy total solar radiation amount month by month over the years.
3. a kind of radiationless data area solar energy total radiation evaluation method according to claim 1, which is characterized in that Respectively radiation represents station actual measurement actual measurement solar total radiation month by month over the years, percentage of sunshine and sunshine month by month over the years in the step S1 The fitting of percentage model is fitted using least square method counterglow percentage model secondary climatic variations formula, is calculated public Formula are as follows:
QM=Q0(a+bS)
Wherein, QMTotal radiation, Q are surveyed for the moon0For moon climatologically calculation amount, S is percentage of sunshine, and a, b are moon empirical coefficient.
4. a kind of radiationless data area solar energy total radiation evaluation method according to claim 1, which is characterized in that REOF analysis in the step S2 refers to percentage of sunshine carries out EOF decomposition month by month over the years, the base then decomposed in EOF Variance is carried out on plinth greatly to rotate.
5. a kind of radiationless data area solar energy total radiation evaluation method according to claim 1, which is characterized in that The radiationless data area for needing to study described in the step S1 and all weather stations for having Radiation Observation in periphery refer to needs The institute inside the province directly bordered on inside the province and with the province where radiationless data area where the radiationless data area of research There is the weather station of Radiation Observation.
6. a kind of radiationless data area solar energy total radiation evaluation method according to claim 2, which is characterized in that The day astronomy total solar radiation amount calculation formula are as follows:
Wherein, QnFor day astronomy total solar radiation amount, unit is MJ/ (m2·d)；T is the time cycle, is herein 24 × 60min d-1；I0It is herein 0.0820 for solar constant, unit is MJ/ (m2·min)；ρ is solar distance coefficient, dimensionless；For ground Manage latitude, unit rad；δ is solar declination, unit rad；ω0For sunset hour angle, unit rad.
7. a kind of radiationless data area solar energy total radiation evaluation method according to claim 4, which is characterized in that It is the linear combination that each radiation is represented to station percentage of sunshine sequence month by month over the years and resolves into orthogonal function, structure that the EOF, which is decomposed, At several orthogonal empirical modals, to characterize the change in time and space of Climatic.
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Application publication date: 20190108