CN109117994B - Event prediction method and device and electronic equipment - Google Patents
Event prediction method and device and electronic equipment Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
One or more embodiments of the present disclosure provide an event prediction method and apparatus, and an electronic device, which are applied to a block chain node; the method comprises the following steps: determining that a prediction result input by a participant for a specified event is issued to a blockchain, wherein the input time of the prediction result is earlier than the occurrence time of the actual result of the specified event; and calling an intelligent contract for evaluating a prediction condition, wherein the intelligent contract is used for reading the prediction result and the actual result and comparing the prediction result with the actual result so as to send an allocation instruction to the out-of-chain object according to the comparison result, and the allocation instruction is used for instructing the out-of-chain object to allocate a first out-of-chain equity certificate to the participant.
Description
Technical Field
One or more embodiments of the present disclosure relate to the field of block chain technologies, and in particular, to an event prediction method and apparatus, and an electronic device.
Background
For an event that has not been completed, it is often necessary to wait for the event to be completed before accurately knowing the result of the event. However, in some scenarios, it is desirable to know the result of the event in advance, for example, to take a countermeasure in advance based on the result of the event, and to determine whether to adjust the processing scheme of the associated event based on the result of the event.
In the related art, the event may be predicted in various ways, such as predictive analysis according to historical data, and further, for example, predictive analysis according to a prediction model trained by a sample. Due to differences in used prediction data, adopted prediction modes, prediction environments and the like, when different participants participate in result prediction aiming at the same event, the obtained prediction results are often different and even have larger deviation.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of this, one or more embodiments of the present disclosure provide an event prediction method and apparatus, and an electronic device.
To achieve the above object, one or more embodiments of the present disclosure provide the following technical solutions:
according to a first aspect of one or more embodiments of the present specification, an event prediction method is provided, which is applied to a block chain node; the method comprises the following steps:
determining that a prediction result input by a participant for a specified event is issued to a blockchain, wherein the input time of the prediction result is earlier than the occurrence time of the actual result of the specified event;
and calling an intelligent contract for evaluating a prediction condition, wherein the intelligent contract is used for reading the prediction result and the actual result and comparing the prediction result with the actual result so as to send an allocation instruction to the out-of-chain object according to the comparison result, and the allocation instruction is used for instructing the out-of-chain object to allocate a first out-of-chain equity certificate to the participant.
According to a second aspect of one or more embodiments of the present specification, there is provided an event prediction apparatus applied to a blockchain node; the device comprises:
a distribution determination unit that determines that a prediction result input by a participant for a specified event is distributed to a blockchain, the input time of the prediction result being earlier than the occurrence time of an actual result of the specified event;
and the contract calling unit is used for calling an intelligent contract for evaluating a prediction condition, the intelligent contract is used for reading the prediction result and the actual result and comparing the prediction result with the actual result so as to send an allocation instruction to the out-of-chain object according to the comparison result, and the allocation instruction is used for instructing the out-of-chain object to allocate a first out-of-chain right certificate to the participant.
According to a third aspect of one or more embodiments of the present specification, there is provided an electronic apparatus including:
a processor;
a memory for storing processor-executable instructions;
wherein the processor executes the executable instructions to implement the event prediction method according to any of the above embodiments.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of an event prediction method according to an exemplary embodiment.
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of a predicted event outcome provided by an exemplary embodiment.
FIG. 3 is a flow diagram of the functional logic of an intelligent contract implementation provided by an exemplary embodiment.
FIG. 4 is a flow diagram of another intelligent contract implementation of functional logic provided by an exemplary embodiment.
Fig. 5 is a schematic structural diagram of an apparatus according to an exemplary embodiment.
Fig. 6 is a block diagram of an event prediction apparatus according to an exemplary embodiment.
Detailed Description
Reference will now be made in detail to the exemplary embodiments, examples of which are illustrated in the accompanying drawings. When the following description refers to the accompanying drawings, like numbers in different drawings represent the same or similar elements unless otherwise indicated. The implementations described in the following exemplary embodiments do not represent all implementations consistent with one or more embodiments of the present specification. Rather, they are merely examples of apparatus and methods consistent with certain aspects of one or more embodiments of the specification, as detailed in the claims which follow.
It should be noted that: in other embodiments, the steps of the corresponding methods are not necessarily performed in the order shown and described herein. In some other embodiments, the method may include more or fewer steps than those described herein. Moreover, a single step described in this specification may be broken down into multiple steps for description in other embodiments; multiple steps described in this specification may be combined into a single step in other embodiments.
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of an event prediction method according to an exemplary embodiment. As shown in fig. 1, the method applied to a blockchain node may include the following steps:
In one embodiment, the prediction results input by the participants can be published to the blockchain through a transaction (transfer) created on the client of the blockchain, which becomes a piece of data in the distributed database of the blockchain.
It should be noted that: the transactions in the blockchain have narrow and broad transaction scores. A narrowly defined transaction refers to a transfer of value issued by a user to a blockchain; for example, in a conventional blockchain network, a transaction may be a transfer initiated by a user in the blockchain. The broad transaction refers to a piece of business data with business intention, which is issued to the blockchain by a user; for example, an operator may build a federation chain based on actual business requirements, relying on the federation chain to deploy some other types of online business unrelated to value transfer (e.g., event prediction, house renting business, vehicle scheduling business, insurance claim settlement business, credit service, medical service, etc.), and in such federation chain, the transaction may be a business message or business request with business intent issued by a user in the federation chain. The term transaction in this specification should be understood to be a broad term transaction.
In an embodiment, the block chain adopts a distributed database, so that the prediction result issued to the block chain cannot be tampered, and the prediction result can be ensured to be real and reliable.
In one embodiment, the prediction results input by the participants may be published to the blockchain by the blockchain node. In another embodiment, the prediction result input by the participant may be distributed to the blockchain by another blockchain node different from the above-mentioned blockchain node, and the above-mentioned blockchain node may know the information related to the prediction result, and may also record the prediction result (or the hash value of the prediction result) in a local database (i.e. blockchain ledger) maintained by the blockchain node.
In one embodiment, one or more participants may predict the same event, so that there may be prediction results on the blockchain that correspond to the respective participants; each participant can have a corresponding unique identifier, so that the prediction result issued by each participant can be associated with the unique identifier of the participant, so as to effectively distinguish the prediction results issued on the blockchain.
In an embodiment, the designated event is any event that is designated to determine that the result prediction is required, such as a traffic condition at a certain intersection, rice harvest in a certain area, typhoon formation time in a certain sea area, and the like, and the description is not limited thereto.
In an embodiment, the input time of the predicted result should be earlier than the occurrence time of the actual result of the specified event, and the input time may be recorded in the transaction containing the predicted result in the blockchain, or the creation time of the transaction may be directly used as the input time. In one case, when the specified event is a transient event, i.e., the time period from the start time to the end time of the specified event is short enough to allow the participant to input the predicted result within the time period, the participant may input the predicted result at any time before the occurrence time of the actual result. In another case, when the specified event is a non-transient event, i.e., the participant may input the prediction result in a time period between the start time and the end time of the specified event, the participant may be restricted from inputting the prediction result after the start time of the specified event.
And 104, calling an intelligent contract for evaluating the prediction condition, wherein the intelligent contract is used for reading the prediction result and the actual result, comparing the prediction result with the actual result, and sending an allocation instruction to the out-of-chain object according to the comparison result, and the allocation instruction is used for instructing the out-of-chain object to allocate a first out-of-chain right certificate to the participant.
In one embodiment, the processing logic for comparing the prediction result with the actual result and the processing logic for sending the allocation instruction based on the comparison result can be written in the intelligent contract in advance, so that the intelligent contract can automatically determine whether the allocation instruction needs to be sent based on the read prediction result and the actual result; the processing logic on the intelligent contract is public content, the whole processing process is automatically completed by the intelligent contract, and no manual intervention exists, so that the objective and justice can be ensured no matter the comparison between the predicted result and the actual result or the transmission of the distribution instruction.
In one embodiment, when the predicted outcome matches the actual outcome, the participant providing the predicted outcome is indicated as having some accuracy in the outcome prediction for the specified event. Then, by sending an allocation instruction to the out-of-chain object, causing the out-of-chain object to allocate the first out-of-chain entitlement credential to the participant, the holding amount of the out-of-chain entitlement credential by each participant can be controlled, thereby achieving a tagging effect to each participant to some extent: the more the participant who has extra-chain equity evidence has stronger prediction ability for the event result, so that the participant with strong prediction ability can be quickly screened out in the subsequent event prediction process so as to obtain a more accurate prediction result from the participants.
In one embodiment, the out-of-chain equity voucher is used to characterize certain equity to enable an incentive for a participant to accurately predict the specified event, and to facilitate the participant to continue to participate in the prediction of subsequent events, thereby achieving virtuous circle. For example, when a participant performs a predetermined operation on a blockchain, such as issuing a transaction, initiating a consensus (e.g., based on the PBFT pragma fault-tolerant algorithm), etc., the out-of-chain entitlement voucher may be converted to an equivalent smart asset voucher within the blockchain, and a certain amount of the smart asset voucher may be assigned to each blockchain link point to facilitate the predetermined operation to be completed as soon as possible.
In one embodiment, the off-chain equity documents may include any type of evidence for characterizing off-chain equity, such as membership points within a membership system, coupons on a transaction platform, redemption coupons, vouchers, etc., and the description is not intended to be limiting.
In one embodiment, the smart contract described above may be invoked under the drive of a transaction or another smart contract to trigger it to read the predicted and actual results, etc., described above, from the blockchain to further implement the event prediction scheme of the present specification. In one case, the actual result of a given event may be published onto the blockchain by an Oracle node in the blockchain, which may ensure its accuracy because the data provided by the Oracle node is considered absolutely reliable. In another case, the actual result of the specified event may be a consensus issued by any blockchain node in the blockchain to the blockchain, for example, the any blockchain node may initiate a consensus within the blockchain to confirm the actual result provided by the any blockchain node, and when the actual result passes the consensus of each blockchain node, the actual result is provided with sufficient accuracy to be applied for comparison with the predicted result.
In one embodiment, the specified event comprises one or more sub-events, and the predicted result is used for performing result prediction on the one or more sub-events; wherein the intelligent contract is used to send the allocation instruction to the out-of-chain platform if the prediction result is correct for the result prediction of the one or more sub-events, such that the out-of-chain object allocates a first out-of-chain equity credential to the participant. In other words, when the prediction outcome is completely correct for the outcome prediction of the specified event, the prediction outcome is determined by the smart contract to match the actual outcome of the specified event.
In one embodiment, the specified event comprises a plurality of sub-events; the equity size corresponding to the first off-chain equity voucher is positively correlated to the fraction of sub-events in the plurality of sub-events that are accurately predicted by the prediction result. For example, when the predicted result is completely the same as the actual result, that is, the proportion of the sub-event accurately predicted by the predicted result in the plurality of sub-events is 100%, the right size represented by the first off-chain right certificate may be a preset maximum value; when the predicted result is completely different from the actual result, that is, the proportion of the sub-event accurately predicted by the predicted result in the plurality of sub-events is 0%, the right size represented by the first off-chain right voucher may be a preset minimum value (0 or other preset values).
In one embodiment, the amount of the right represented by the first off-chain right certificate may be linearly varied, for example, 30% of the preset maximum value is the right amount, and for example, 80% of the preset maximum value is the right amount when the ratio is 30%. In another embodiment, the amount of the right characterized by the first off-chain right certificate may vary non-linearly, for example, the amount of the right is 10% of the preset maximum value at a ratio of 30%, for example, the amount of the right is 50% of the preset maximum value at a ratio of 80%, for example, the amount of the right is 80% of the preset maximum value at a ratio of 95%, and the like.
In one embodiment, the specified event comprises a plurality of sub-events, and when the predicted result is not completely consistent with the actual result, the sub-events accurately predicted by the predicted result can be determined to be not matched with the actual result regardless of the proportion of the sub-events in the plurality of sub-events, so that the intelligent contract does not need to send an allocation instruction to the out-of-chain object, and therefore the first out-of-chain right certificate is not allocated to the participant.
In an embodiment, it may be determined that a second off-chain entitlement credential held by the participant is frozen as a vouching credential for vouching for validity of the prediction result; and the intelligent contract is used for sending a deduction instruction to the manager of the guarantee voucher to release the holding relationship of the participant to the guarantee voucher under the condition that the predicted result does not match the actual result. The second extra-link right and interest certificate held by the participant is frozen into the guarantee certificate, so that the guarantee certificate is used for guaranteeing the prediction result provided by the participant, a certain participation threshold can be set for the participant, and the influence of random participation on accurate prediction of the specified event is avoided.
In one embodiment, the larger the interest represented by the guarantee voucher, the more confident the participant is about the prediction result provided by the participant, and when the prediction result matches the actual result, the greater the prediction ability, and thus the participant can be determined to have a very strong prediction ability, so that by setting the interest represented by the first off-chain interest voucher to be positively correlated with the interest represented by the guarantee voucher, the prediction ability of the corresponding participant can be marked more accurately, and the corresponding participant can be stimulated to a greater extent.
In one embodiment, even if the participant does not freeze to form a vouching voucher, the participant can still participate in the result prediction of the specified event and obtain the first off-chain entitlement voucher if the predicted result matches the actual result. In another embodiment, when the participant is not frozen to form the vouching certificate, the prediction result input by the participant is judged to be invalid, so that the participant cannot really participate in the result prediction of the specified event; alternatively, where the predicted outcome matches the actual outcome, the participant may be assigned a first off-chain entitlement credential, but the first off-chain entitlement credential may not characterize any entitlement as equivalent to not assigning any off-chain entitlement credential, rendering the participant's participation meaningless.
In one embodiment, the invoking condition of the intelligent contract may include: a third off-chain entitlement credential held by the off-chain object is frozen, and the frozen third off-chain entitlement credential is sufficient to respond to the allocation instruction. By freezing a third off-chain entitlement credential held by the off-chain object before invoking the intelligent contract, the part of the off-chain entitlement credential can be locked in advance, so that even if the off-chain object refuses to allocate the first off-chain entitlement credential to the participant after receiving the allocation instruction or the held off-chain entitlement credential is not enough to complete the allocation, the allocation operation can be smoothly carried out based on the frozen third off-chain entitlement credential.
In an embodiment, if the out-of-link object allocates the first out-of-link entitlement credential to the participant according to the allocation instruction, the out-of-link object may resume holding the third out-of-link entitlement credential. If the out-of-chain object does not assign the first out-of-chain entitlement credential to the participant, the smart contract for assigning an out-of-chain entitlement credential may send a force assignment instruction to the administrator of the third out-of-chain entitlement credential to obtain the first out-of-chain entitlement credential from the frozen third out-of-chain entitlement credential and assign the first out-of-chain entitlement credential to the participant. The block link point can monitor the response condition of the out-of-chain object to the allocation instruction, for example, the response condition can be transmitted to the block chain by the predictor node, so as to ensure the accuracy of the message; alternatively, after the predictive machine node transmits the response condition into the blockchain, the intelligent contract for distributing the out-of-chain entitlement credential may automatically determine whether the out-of-chain object distributes the first out-of-chain entitlement credential to the participant, and automatically send the forced distribution instruction.
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of a predicted event outcome provided by an exemplary embodiment. As shown in fig. 2, assuming that a user a wishes to participate in the prediction of the result for an event B, the user a can input the prediction result through a handset 21 in which a client is installed. The prediction result may be obtained by the user a through any means, such as by the user a performing big data analysis on the historical data through a server not shown in fig. 2, or by the user a according to his own experience, which is not limited in this specification.
The device 22 is configured as a blockchain node in a blockchain, and the device 22 can receive the prediction result sent by the handset 21; the prediction may be determined to be from user a based on the logged-in account on the client on which the handset 21 is running. Of course, the handset 21 may also send the above prediction result to other blockchain nodes in the blockchain, and the processing procedure of these blockchain nodes is similar to that of the device 22, and reference may be made to the relevant description of the device 22 in this specification. Other users can also make result prediction on the event B and send the result to the device 22 or other block nodes through their own mobile phones or other electronic devices, and the processing procedure of these users is similar to that of the user a, which can refer to the relevant description of the user a in this specification.
The apparatus 22 may perform consensus on the prediction result input by the user a in the blockchain, so that the prediction result is distributed to the blockchain after passing the consensus, so as to be recorded in a distributed database of the blockchain, i.e., "uplink". The present description does not limit the type of consensus algorithm employed; for example, when the block chain in which the device 22 is located is a federation chain or a public chain, the device 22 may initiate consensus to other block chain nodes based on, for example, a PBFT (physical Byzantine Fault Tolerance) algorithm, and issue the prediction result to the block chain after passing the consensus, so that the prediction result is recorded in a distributed database of the block chain; for another example, when the blockchain in which the device 22 is located is a public chain, the device 22 may compete with other blockchain nodes for the accounting right based on POW (Proof of Work) algorithm, POS (Proof of stock) algorithm, or other algorithms, and post the transaction data to the corresponding block by the blockchain node that obtains the accounting right, and when the transaction including the prediction result input by the user a is posted, the prediction result may be recorded in the distributed database of the blockchain.
A predictor node 23 can be included in the blockchain, and the predictor node 23 can acquire out-of-chain (i.e., out-of-blockchain) data and transfer the out-of-chain data into the blockchain. For example, the predictor node 23 can obtain the actual result of event B from outside the chain and publish the actual result to the blockchain for recording in the distributed database of the blockchain, i.e., "uplink".
In order to determine whether the predicted result input by the user a matches the actual result, especially to avoid human intervention involved in the processing procedure and to ensure accuracy and validity, an intelligent contract may be created in advance on the block chain, and a functional logic for determining a matching condition between the predicted result and the actual result is defined in the intelligent contract, and the functional logic may automatically compare the predicted result input by the user a with the actual result of the event B transmitted by the predicting machine node 23, so that the comparison result is objective and accurate.
In one embodiment, the intelligent contracts may be invoked by transactions or other intelligent contracts on the blockchain to trigger their automatic implementation of associated functional logic, such as the functional logic described above for determining a match between a predicted outcome and an actual outcome. The device 22 may implement the invocation of the intelligent contract by issuing a transaction or invoking another intelligent contract in the blockchain; alternatively, the above-mentioned smart contract may be called by other block link points, which is not limited in this specification. Upon being invoked, the smart contracts described above may be run on the device 22 to automatically implement the functional logic described above.
For ease of understanding, the functional logic implemented by the intelligent contracts referred to in the embodiment illustrated in FIG. 2 is described in detail below in conjunction with FIGS. 3 and 4.
FIG. 3 is a flow diagram of the functional logic of an intelligent contract implementation provided by an exemplary embodiment. As shown in fig. 3, the functional logic may include the steps of:
In one embodiment, the prediction result of user a is recorded in a transaction on the blockchain, and the transaction may be marked as related to event B, so that the intelligent contract may accordingly find the transaction from the blockchain and obtain the prediction result of user a. For example, the intelligent contract may obtain the prediction result input by the user a by scanning the transaction record of a specific address or the transaction record of a specific serial number.
In an embodiment, prediction results input by other users are also recorded on the block chain, and the intelligent contracts can obtain the prediction results in a similar manner, which is not described herein any more.
In one embodiment, the actual result entered by the predictor node 23 is recorded in a transaction on the blockchain, which may be marked as related to event B, so that the intelligent contract may accordingly find the transaction from the blockchain and obtain the actual result. For example, the intelligent contract may obtain the actual result by scanning a transaction record for a particular address or a transaction record for a particular serial number.
In one embodiment, assume that event B is a unique event, not containing multiple sub-events, such that there are only two cases of predicted outcome and actual outcome: consistent results or inconsistent results. The predicted result and the actual result should have the same data structure in order to implement the comparison operation. For example, assuming that the event B is a traffic condition of a certain intersection during rush hours, the predicted result and the actual result may each include a field m, and the field m may indicate congestion when the field m is 0 and indicate non-congestion when the field m is 1.
In step 310A, when the vouchers exist, an assignment instruction 1 is sent to the organization C.
In step 310B, when the vouchers do not exist, an assignment instruction 2 is sent to the organization C.
In one embodiment, the user a may configure a corresponding vouching certificate for the prediction result input by the user a, so as to vouch for the validity of the prediction result. For example, the user a may have a corresponding account a outside the blockchain, and hold a certain off-chain entitlement certificate through the account a, and may freeze at least a part of the off-chain entitlement certificate in the account a to serve as the above-mentioned guarantee certificate; for example, the account a may temporarily transfer the at least one part of the out-of-chain right voucher to a dedicated voucher freezing account, or add a freezing identifier to the at least one part of the out-of-chain right voucher in the account a, which is not limited in this specification. In this embodiment, the vouching document is not necessarily: if a vouching credential exists, an assignment instruction 1 may be sent to institution C, causing the institution C to assign an out-of-chain equity credential to user a S1, if no vouching credential exists, an assignment instruction 2 may be sent to institution C, causing the institution C to assign an out-of-chain equity credential to user a S2; wherein the rights characterized by the off-chain rights and interests credential S1 should be greater than the rights and interests characterized by the off-chain rights and interests credential S2 to indicate an incentive to provide vouchers to user A and to make more off-chain rights and interests credentials held by user A to indicate that the user A has enhanced predictive power or increased accuracy of prediction. The rights and interests represented by the off-chain rights and interests certificates S1 and S2 can be fixed values, or the rights and interests represented by the off-chain rights and interests certificates S1 and S2 can be positively correlated with the rights and interests represented by the guarantee certificates, that is, the greater/greater the rights and interests represented by the guarantee certificates, the greater/greater the rights and interests represented by the off-chain rights and interests represented by the S1 and S2.
In one embodiment, to avoid user a from freely publishing predictions for event B and making such predictions meaningful, certain thresholds may be set for the outcome prediction of participating user B, such as requiring user a to have to provide vouching credentials. Thus, for the case where a vouching credential exists, user A may be assigned an out-of-chain equity credential S1, S1 for characterizing certain equity; in the absence of a vouching certificate, the off-chain equity certificate S2 assigned to user a fails to characterize any equity, which is equivalent to no off-chain equity certificate being assigned, and user a' S participation would be meaningless.
In step 310C, the vouching certificate is deducted when the vouching certificate exists.
In an embodiment, when the predicted result is inconsistent with the actual result, that is, the result of the event B predicted by the user a is inaccurate or the prediction fails, the vouching credential may be deducted so that the user a terminates holding the off-link equity credential corresponding to the vouching credential, and then the off-link equity credential held by the user a is decreased to indicate that the prediction capability of the user a is weakened or the prediction accuracy is lowered.
In one embodiment, the vouching credentials corresponding to the user a may be provided with a manager, such as an account management system, and the smart contract may be configured to send a deduction instruction to the manager, so that the manager deducts the corresponding vouching credentials in response to the deduction instruction.
FIG. 4 is a flow diagram of another intelligent contract implementation of functional logic provided by an exemplary embodiment. As shown in fig. 4, the functional logic may include the steps of:
In an embodiment, the steps 402 and 404 can refer to the steps 302 and 304 shown in fig. 3, which are not described herein again.
In one embodiment, assuming that the event B includes a plurality of sub-events, if the predicted result of the user a accurately predicts all the sub-events, the predicted result is completely consistent with the actual result; if the user A only accurately predicts the result of the partial sub-event, or the user A only predicts the partial sub-event, the predicted result is partially consistent with the actual result; of course, it is possible that the prediction of all the sub-events by the user a is not correct, and the prediction result is completely inconsistent with the actual result.
In one embodiment, the predicted result and the actual result should have the same data structure in order to facilitate the comparison operation. For example, assuming that the event B is a traffic condition of a certain intersection during rush hour, the predicted result and the actual result may include a field m1 and a field m2, respectively, where the m1 field represents a traffic condition during early peak hours and the m2 represents a traffic condition during late peak hours, the predicted result and the actual result may indicate congestion during early peak hours when the field m1 is 0 and indicate non-congestion during early peak hours when the field m1 is 1, the predicted result and the actual result may indicate congestion during late peak hours when the field m2 is 0 and indicate non-congestion during late peak hours when the field m2 is 1.
In step 408A, when the predicted result is completely consistent with the actual result, it is determined whether the user A has a guarantee certificate.
In step 410A, when the vouchers are present, an assignment instruction 1 is sent to the organization C.
In step 410B, when there is no vouching token, an assignment instruction 2 is sent to institution C.
In an embodiment, step 408A, step 410A, and step 410B may refer to step 308A, step 310A, and step 310B shown in fig. 3, which are not described herein again.
And step 408B, when the predicted result is not completely consistent with the actual result, determining whether the predicted result is partially consistent with the actual result.
In step 410C, when the predicted result is completely inconsistent with the actual result, if the warranty exists, the warranty is deducted.
In one embodiment, similar to the embodiment shown in fig. 3, the user a may configure a corresponding vouching certificate for the prediction result inputted by the user a, so as to vouch for the validity of the prediction result. Then, when the predicted result is completely inconsistent with the actual result, that is, the result of the event B predicted by the user a is inaccurate or the prediction fails, the user a may terminate holding the off-link equity voucher corresponding to the vouching voucher by deducting the vouching voucher, and then the off-link equity voucher held by the user a is reduced to indicate that the prediction capability of the user a is weakened or the prediction accuracy is reduced.
In step 412A, if the vouchers exist, an assignment instruction 3 is sent to the organization C.
In step 412B, when the vouchers do not exist, an assignment instruction 4 is sent to the organization C.
In one embodiment, similar to steps 410A-410B, when the predicted result is consistent with the actual result portion, indicating that user A has some degree of predictive capability, and thus for the purpose of annotating this portion of predictive capability, and incentives to user A, an assignment instruction 3 or 4 may be sent to institution C, causing institution C to assign user A some sort of out-of-chain entitlement credential. In this embodiment, the vouching document is not necessarily: if a vouching credential exists, user A may be assigned an out-of-chain equity credential S3, if no vouching credential exists, user A may be assigned an out-of-chain equity credential S4; wherein, in terms of the characterized equity size: s1 > S3 > S4, S1 > S2 > S4.
In an embodiment, the rights and interests represented by the out-of-chain rights and interests credentials S1 and S3 may be fixed values corresponding to the rights and interests represented by the out-of-chain rights and interests credentials S1 and S3, respectively, or the rights and interests represented by the out-of-chain rights and interests represented by the vouching documents may be positively correlated with the rights and interests represented by the vouching documents, that is, the greater/greater the rights and interests represented by the vouching documents, the greater/greater the rights and interests represented by the intelligent asset credentials S1 and S3.
In one embodiment, to avoid user a from freely publishing predictions for event B and making such predictions meaningful, certain thresholds may be set for the outcome prediction of participating user B, such as requiring user a to have to provide vouching credentials. Thus, for the case where a vouching credential exists, user A may be assigned an out-of-chain equity credential S3, S3 for characterizing certain equity; in the absence of a vouching certificate, the off-chain equity certificate S4 assigned to user a fails to characterize any equity, which is equivalent to no off-chain equity certificate being assigned, and user a' S participation would be meaningless.
In one embodiment, since the user a can be assigned to the corresponding out-of-chain equity voucher only if the predicted result matches the actual result, the out-of-chain equity voucher held by the user a can be used to characterize its prediction ability or prediction accuracy, i.e., when more out-of-chain equity vouchers are held or the characterized equity is larger, it indicates that the user a has stronger prediction ability or higher prediction accuracy.
User a may also use the out-of-chain entitlement credential for other purposes, among others. For example, some of the block link points in the block chain may play the role of an anchor point, and the extra-chain equity certificate held by the user a may be exchanged with an equivalent intelligent asset certificate, such as a property certificate, a security certificate, a stock certificate, a deposit certificate, etc. issued by the anchor point, which is not limited in this specification. When the out-of-chain equity voucher is used for representing the prediction capability of the user, only the out-of-chain equity voucher is allowed to be exchanged into the intelligent asset voucher, and the intelligent asset voucher is limited to be exchanged into the out-of-chain equity voucher; of course, if there is both a first type of out-of-chain entitlement credential that characterizes the user's predictive capabilities and a second type of out-of-chain entitlement credential that does not characterize the user's predictive capabilities, the exchange of the smart asset credential for the first type of out-of-chain entitlement credential may be limited, while the exchange of the out-of-chain entitlement credential for the second type of out-of-chain entitlement credential may be allowed.
In the embodiment shown in FIGS. 3-4, when the organization C receives the allocation instructions 1-4, the out-of-chain entitlement credentials S1-S4 may not be allocated to the user A for various reasons, such as the organization C holding an out-of-chain entitlement credential that is insufficient to respond to the allocation instructions 1-4 (i.e., the organization C holds less/less out-of-chain entitlement credentials S1-S4) or for other reasons. To avoid this, user a is assured of successfully obtaining the out-of-chain entitlement credentials S1-S4, before initiating the prediction for event B, it may first be determined that institution C freezes at least a portion of the held out-of-chain entitlement credentials, such as at a designated administrator (e.g., a third party financial platform), and the predicting machine node 23 may transfer the corresponding frozen result into the block chain, and then the above-mentioned smart contract may perform the processing logic shown in fig. 3 or fig. 4 after scanning the frozen result, otherwise it may not perform the processing logic. After the distribution instructions 1-4 are sent to the organization C, the oracle node 23 may transfer the distribution of the organization C to the out-of-chain equity vouchers S1-S4 into the block chain, and the device 22 may invoke an intelligent contract for distribution of the out-of-chain equity vouchers, which may be configured to send a forced distribution instruction to the above-mentioned manager, so that the manager unfreezes the frozen out-of-chain equity vouchers and distributes the corresponding out-of-chain equity vouchers to the user a, which is not constrained by the organization C.
FIG. 5 is a schematic block diagram of an apparatus provided in an exemplary embodiment. Referring to fig. 5, at the hardware level, the apparatus includes a processor 502, an internal bus 504, a network interface 506, a memory 508 and a non-volatile memory 510, but may also include hardware required for other services. The processor 502 reads a corresponding computer program from the non-volatile memory 510 into the memory 508 and runs it, forming an event prediction means on a logical level. Of course, besides software implementation, the one or more embodiments in this specification do not exclude other implementations, such as logic devices or combinations of software and hardware, and so on, that is, the execution subject of the following processing flow is not limited to each logic unit, and may also be hardware or logic devices.
Referring to fig. 6, in a software implementation, the event prediction apparatus is applied to a blockchain node; the apparatus may include:
a distribution determining unit 61 that determines that a prediction result input by a participant for a specified event is distributed to a blockchain, the input timing of the prediction result being earlier than the occurrence timing of an actual result of the specified event;
the first contract invoking unit 62 is used for invoking an intelligent contract for evaluating a prediction situation, the intelligent contract is used for reading the prediction result and the actual result, and comparing the prediction result with the actual result to send an allocation instruction to the out-of-chain object according to the comparison result, and the allocation instruction is used for instructing the out-of-chain object to allocate a first out-of-chain right certificate to the participant.
Alternatively to this, the first and second parts may,
the actual result is read from the blockchain by the intelligent contract, and the actual result is issued to the blockchain by a prescient node in the blockchain;
or the actual result is read from the block chain by the intelligent contract, and the actual result is identified and then issued to the block chain by any block chain node in the block chain.
Optionally, the specified event includes one or more sub-events, and the prediction result is used to perform result prediction on the one or more sub-events respectively; wherein the intelligent contract is used to send the allocation instruction to the out-of-chain platform if the prediction result is correct for the result prediction of the one or more sub-events.
Optionally, the specified event includes a plurality of sub-events; the equity size corresponding to the first off-chain equity voucher is positively correlated to the fraction of sub-events in the plurality of sub-events that are accurately predicted by the prediction result.
Optionally, the method further includes:
a freeze determination unit 63 that determines that a second off-link equity certificate held by the participant is frozen as a vouching certificate for vouching validity of the prediction result;
and the intelligent contract is used for sending a deduction instruction to the manager of the guarantee voucher to release the holding relationship of the participant to the guarantee voucher under the condition that the predicted result does not match the actual result.
Optionally, the first off-chain entitlement credential represents an entitlement size that is positively correlated with the warranty size represented by the vouching credential.
Optionally, the intelligent contract is configured to determine that the prediction result corresponding to the participant is invalid when the participant does not have the corresponding vouching credential.
Optionally, the first out-of-chain entitlement credential includes at least one of: membership points, coupons, redemption coupons, vouchers.
Optionally, the invoking condition of the intelligent contract includes: a third off-chain entitlement credential held by the off-chain object is frozen, and the frozen third off-chain entitlement credential is sufficient to respond to the allocation instruction.
Optionally, the method further includes:
a second contract invoking unit 64, in case the out-of-chain object does not allocate the first out-of-chain entitlement credential to the participant, invoking an intelligent contract for allocating an out-of-chain entitlement credential, causing the intelligent contract for allocating an out-of-chain entitlement credential to send a forced allocation instruction to the administrator of the third out-of-chain entitlement credential to obtain the first out-of-chain entitlement credential from the frozen third out-of-chain entitlement credential and allocate the first out-of-chain entitlement credential to the participant.
The systems, devices, modules or units illustrated in the above embodiments may be implemented by a computer chip or an entity, or by a product with certain functions. A typical implementation device is a computer, which may take the form of a personal computer, laptop computer, cellular telephone, camera phone, smart phone, personal digital assistant, media player, navigation device, email messaging device, game console, tablet computer, wearable device, or a combination of any of these devices.
In a typical configuration, a computer includes one or more processors (CPUs), input/output interfaces, network interfaces, and memory.
The memory may include forms of volatile memory in a computer readable medium, Random Access Memory (RAM) and/or non-volatile memory, such as Read Only Memory (ROM) or flash memory (flash RAM). Memory is an example of a computer-readable medium.
Computer-readable media, including both non-transitory and non-transitory, removable and non-removable media, may implement information storage by any method or technology. The information may be computer readable instructions, data structures, modules of a program, or other data. Examples of computer storage media include, but are not limited to, phase change memory (PRAM), Static Random Access Memory (SRAM), Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM), other types of Random Access Memory (RAM), Read Only Memory (ROM), Electrically Erasable Programmable Read Only Memory (EEPROM), flash memory or other memory technology, compact disc read only memory (CD-ROM), Digital Versatile Discs (DVD) or other optical storage, magnetic cassettes, magnetic disk storage, quantum memory, graphene-based storage media or other magnetic storage devices, or any other non-transmission medium that can be used to store information that can be accessed by a computing device. As defined herein, a computer readable medium does not include a transitory computer readable medium such as a modulated data signal and a carrier wave.
It should also be noted that the terms "comprises," "comprising," or any other variation thereof, are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises a list of elements does not include only those elements but may include other elements not expressly listed or inherent to such process, method, article, or apparatus. Without further limitation, an element defined by the phrase "comprising an … …" does not exclude the presence of other like elements in a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises the element.
The foregoing description has been directed to specific embodiments of this disclosure. Other embodiments are within the scope of the following claims. In some cases, the actions or steps recited in the claims may be performed in a different order than in the embodiments and still achieve desirable results. In addition, the processes depicted in the accompanying figures do not necessarily require the particular order shown, or sequential order, to achieve desirable results. In some embodiments, multitasking and parallel processing may also be possible or may be advantageous.
The terminology used in the description of the one or more embodiments is for the purpose of describing the particular embodiments only and is not intended to be limiting of the description of the one or more embodiments. As used in one or more embodiments of the present specification and the appended claims, the singular forms "a," "an," and "the" are intended to include the plural forms as well, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise. It should also be understood that the term "and/or" as used herein refers to and encompasses any and all possible combinations of one or more of the associated listed items.
It should be understood that although the terms first, second, third, etc. may be used in one or more embodiments of the present description to describe various information, such information should not be limited to these terms. These terms are only used to distinguish one type of information from another. For example, first information may also be referred to as second information, and similarly, second information may also be referred to as first information, without departing from the scope of one or more embodiments herein. The word "if" as used herein may be interpreted as "at … …" or "when … …" or "in response to a determination", depending on the context.
The above description is only for the purpose of illustrating the preferred embodiments of the one or more embodiments of the present disclosure, and is not intended to limit the scope of the one or more embodiments of the present disclosure, and any modifications, equivalent substitutions, improvements, etc. made within the spirit and principle of the one or more embodiments of the present disclosure should be included in the scope of the one or more embodiments of the present disclosure.
Claims (20)
1. An event prediction method is applied to a block chain node; the method comprises the following steps:
determining that a prediction result input by a participant for a specified event is issued to a blockchain, wherein the input time of the prediction result is earlier than the occurrence time of the actual result of the specified event;
invoking an intelligent contract for evaluating a prediction situation, the intelligent contract being used to read the prediction result and the actual result and compare the prediction result with the actual result to send an allocation instruction to an out-of-chain object according to the comparison result, the allocation instruction being used to instruct the out-of-chain object to allocate a first out-of-chain equity credential to the participant;
wherein the actual result is read from the blockchain by the intelligent contract, and the actual result is issued to the blockchain by a prescient node in the blockchain; or the actual result is read from the block chain by the intelligent contract, and the actual result is identified and then issued to the block chain by any block chain node in the block chain.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the specified event comprises one or more sub-events, and the predicted result is used for performing result prediction on the one or more sub-events respectively; wherein the intelligent contract is used to send the allocation instruction to the out-of-chain platform if the prediction result is correct for the result prediction of the one or more sub-events.
3. The method of claim 1, the specified event comprising a plurality of sub-events; the equity size corresponding to the first off-chain equity voucher is positively correlated to the fraction of sub-events in the plurality of sub-events that are accurately predicted by the prediction result.
4. The method of claim 1, further comprising:
determining that a second off-chain entitlement credential held by the participant is frozen as a vouching credential for vouching for validity of the prediction result;
and the intelligent contract is used for sending a deduction instruction to the manager of the guarantee voucher to release the holding relationship of the participant to the guarantee voucher under the condition that the predicted result does not match the actual result.
5. The method of claim 4, the first off-chain entitlement credential characterized an entitlement size positively correlated with an entitlement size characterized by the vouching credential.
6. The method of claim 4, the intelligent contract configured to determine that the prediction result corresponding to the participant is invalid if the participant does not have a corresponding vouching credential.
7. The method of claim 1, the first out-of-chain entitlement credential comprising at least one of: membership points, coupons, redemption coupons, vouchers.
8. The method of claim 1, the invocation condition of the smart contract comprising: a third off-chain entitlement credential held by the off-chain object is frozen, and the frozen third off-chain entitlement credential is sufficient to respond to the allocation instruction.
9. The method of claim 8, further comprising:
invoking an intelligent contract for assigning out-of-chain entitlement credentials that sends forced assignment instructions to a manager of the third out-of-chain entitlement credential to obtain the first out-of-chain entitlement credential from the frozen third out-of-chain entitlement credential and assign to the participant approximately if the first out-of-chain entitlement credential is not assigned to the participant by the out-of-chain object.
10. An event prediction device is applied to a block chain node; the device comprises:
a distribution determination unit that determines that a prediction result input by a participant for a specified event is distributed to a blockchain, the input time of the prediction result being earlier than the occurrence time of an actual result of the specified event;
a first contract calling unit, which calls an intelligent contract for evaluating a prediction condition, wherein the intelligent contract is used for reading the prediction result and the actual result and comparing the prediction result with the actual result so as to send an allocation instruction to an off-chain object according to the comparison result, and the allocation instruction is used for instructing the off-chain object to allocate a first off-chain right certificate to the participant;
wherein the actual result is read from the blockchain by the intelligent contract, and the actual result is issued to the blockchain by a prescient node in the blockchain; or the actual result is read from the block chain by the intelligent contract, and the actual result is identified and then issued to the block chain by any block chain node in the block chain.
11. The apparatus according to claim 10, wherein the specified event comprises one or more sub-events, and the predicted result is used for performing result prediction on the one or more sub-events respectively; wherein the intelligent contract is used to send the allocation instruction to the out-of-chain platform if the prediction result is correct for the result prediction of the one or more sub-events.
12. The apparatus of claim 10, the specified event comprising a plurality of sub-events; the equity size corresponding to the first off-chain equity voucher is positively correlated to the fraction of sub-events in the plurality of sub-events that are accurately predicted by the prediction result.
13. The apparatus of claim 10, further comprising:
a freeze determination unit that determines that a second off-link equity certificate held by the participant is frozen as a vouching certificate for vouching validity of the prediction result;
and the intelligent contract is used for sending a deduction instruction to the manager of the guarantee voucher to release the holding relationship of the participant to the guarantee voucher under the condition that the predicted result does not match the actual result.
14. The device of claim 13, the first off-chain entitlement credential characterized an entitlement size positively correlated with an entitlement size characterized by the vouching credential.
15. The apparatus of claim 13, the smart contract to determine that the participant's corresponding prediction is invalid if the participant does not have a corresponding vouching credential.
16. The apparatus of claim 10, the first out-of-chain entitlement credential comprising at least one of: membership points, coupons, redemption coupons, vouchers.
17. The apparatus of claim 10, the invocation condition of the smart contract comprising: a third off-chain entitlement credential held by the off-chain object is frozen, and the frozen third off-chain entitlement credential is sufficient to respond to the allocation instruction.
18. The apparatus of claim 17, further comprising:
a second contract invoking unit, in a case that the out-of-chain object does not allocate the first out-of-chain right and interest credential to the participant, invoking an intelligent contract for allocating an out-of-chain right and interest credential, causing the intelligent contract for allocating an out-of-chain right and interest credential to send a forced allocation instruction to the administrator of the third out-of-chain right and interest credential to acquire the first out-of-chain right and interest credential from the frozen third out-of-chain right and interest credential and allocate the first out-of-chain right and interest credential to the participant.
19. An electronic device, comprising:
a processor;
a memory for storing processor-executable instructions;
wherein the processor implements the event prediction method of any one of claims 1-9 by executing the executable instructions.
20. A computer readable storage medium having stored thereon computer instructions which, when executed by a processor, carry out the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 9.
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